The first quarter is on track to be another historic period for pay TV losses, with the steepest declines at AT&T and Dish
- The first quarter of 2019 is on track to be another historic quarter for subscriber losses in the pay TV industry, UBS analysts wrote in a research note Tuesday.
- The analysts estimate AT&T will lose 473,000 subscribers and Dish will lose 333,000 in the first quarter.
The first quarter of 2019 is looking to be another historic quarter for pay TV subscriber losses, according to a UBS analyst note.
The first quarter of 2019 will likely produce high satellite subscriber losses, with the steepest declines in pay TV at AT&T and Dish, the analysts wrote in a research note Tuesday.
In the first quarter, UBS estimates AT&T will lose 473,000 versus the 391,000 the company lost in the fourth quarter of 2018. At Dish, the analysts estimate 333,000 losses in the first quarter versus the 381,000 in the fourth quarter.
The last two quarters of 2018 produced the worst and second worst quarters of sub losses in history as people swap subscription video plans for cheaper OTT alternatives.
AT&T's DirecTV and Dish, as satellite companies, are especially susceptible to losses, as they lack a bundle with broadband that has helped cable-TV providers retain customers.
Both companies also have specific business reasons they'll likely see big sub losses in the first quarter. AT&T is phasing out promotions to get rid of low-value subscribers.
Dish has had ongoing programming disputes with HBO and Univision, leading to service blackouts, though it recently resolved its dispute with Univision.
Analysts have already predicted AT&T's OTT service, DirecTV Now, will likely see large declines in 2019 after it overhauled its service, shrinking its four packages to two, dropping channels from its bundle, and increasing prices by $10 a month.
Hulu with Live TV and YouTube TV could be the beneficiaries of DirecTV's pricing increases, BTIG analyst Rich Greenfield told Business Insider in March. Hulu Live costs $45 a month and YouTube TV is $40 a month.