The coronavirus has ravaged media. Analysts dissect how 5 major companies like Disney and Fox have been affected and the key drivers that could help them recover.

• Wall Street analysts are tallying up the toll the coronavirus pandemic has taken media conglomerates like Disney and Fox - and the key drivers that could help them in this period of economic turmoil.
• Combined, Disney, Fox, ViacomCBS, Discovery, and AMC Networks lost $92 billion in market value since the last market high on Feb. 19, largely thanks to Disney.
• We break down the impact on each of these companies, based on separate reports released this week by firms Bernstein, CFRA Research, and UBS.
• Click here for more BI Prime stories.

After two weeks of steady theme-park closures, major sporting event cancellations, and film and TV delays or production shutdowns, Wall Street analysts are tallying up the toll the coronavirus pandemic has taken media conglomerates like Disney and Fox - and the key drivers that could help them in this period of economic turmoil.

Analysts at Bernstein, CFRA Research, and UBS released separate reports this week that broke down the impact on media companies including Disney, Fox, ViacomCBS, Discovery, and AMC Networks.

Combined, these five companies have lost about $92 billion in market value since the last market high on Feb. 19, largely thanks to Disney.

As UBS previously projected, the media companies most exposed are those that make most of their money from theme parks, films, and advertising, especially local advertising that's driven more by small businesses. Disney, the firm forecasted on Wednesday, has been among the hardest hit; UBS lowered its revenue forecasts for Disney's current fiscal year by 30%.

Bernstein, meanwhile, found that the pandemic is exacerbating problems that already existed at legacy-media companies like Discovery and ViacomCBS, which were overly reliant on the now crumbling traditional-TV ecosystem and may have waited too long to develop viable streaming strategies.

"We have learned that COVID-19 is most dangerous to the population of people who are older and have preexisting underlying medical conditions," analysts at Bernstein wrote on Thursday. "We believe that analogy also applies to Media stocks."

These were the key takeaways from the reports.

Disney

Market capitalization as of March 26: $193 billion, down 24% from Feb. 19

The good news: Disney's European expansion of Disney Plus went off without a hitch this week. Third-party app download estimates suggest solid early momentum in the seven European markets where the platform debuted, including the UK, as Variety reported. Disney also added recently released movies like "Frozen 2" and "Onward" to the Disney Plus earlier than expected, which UBS put in the plus column.

Disney, which sought to raise about $6 billion in a debt offer last week, also still has a solid balance sheet. Even with lower free cash flow this year, UBS expects Disney's debt leverage to be back to back in-line with pre-coronavirus projections by next fiscal year.

The bad news: A good chunk of Disney's business is at a standstill and that's unlikely to change overnight.

UBS expects Disney's theme parks will stay closed through June 1 - about 45 days since Disney World closed its gates - and that it will take time for attendance to ramp up when they do reopen. UBS previously estimated that Disney could take a nearly $2 billion revenue hit in 2020, or about 2.5% of what the analyst firm forecasted the company would generate that year, if it were forced to shut down all of its theme parks for 30 days.

One-quarter of Disney's estimated TV viewership during the quarter ending in March 2019 also came from sports, which, for the most part, are not airing right now. The loss of the regular NBA season alone could cost Disney an estimated $450 million in ad revenue during the second quarter, UBS estimated.

Disney can't release any movies in theaters, because most are closed right now. And studio production stoppages could push back some licensing revenue when it comes due down the line.

Overall, UBS dramatically lowered its earnings and revenue estimates for Disney in 2020. It's now projecting the media company will end the fiscal year with $71.7 million in revenue, up 3% from a year ago and 10% less than UBS' prior estimate. It's also expecting earnings of $3.08 per share, down 47% from last fiscal year.

Fox

Market capitalization: $15 billion, down 35% from Feb. 19

The good news: Fox News is thriving. Last week was the cable-news network's most-watched week of 2020, despite criticism that Fox News initially downplayed the threat of the coronavirus, the Los Angeles Times reported. UBS expects the network to help offset the loss of live sports on Fox's other networks. The firm projects that Fox's affiliate revenue will continue to grow in 2020.

The bad news: It's a tough advertising environment for everyone right now and Fox isn't immune. The ad market, combined with the loss of live sports, is expected to weigh on Fox's revenue in 2020. Fox is also facing the same production halts as other media companies, and content payments that are still due could hurt chip away at the company's free cash flow.

Overall, UBS dropped its estimate for Fox's 2020 revenue by about 2% to $12.1 billion, which would still be a 6% increase from last year. It's projected earnings of $2.24 per share, down 15% from a year ago.

ViacomCBS

Market capitalization: $8.8 billion, down 60% from Feb. 19

The good news: ViacomCBS isn't as exposed to the lack of live sports, because only about 4% of its viewership during this quarter a year ago came from sports, according to the UBS report. Its viewership was mainly driven by entertainment and kids programming, which could help the company right now given that more people are home and watching TV.

The bad news: Viacom and CBS merged in December and are still in the early stages of integrating the two companies. Any setbacks caused by the coronavirus outbreak could compromise the $750 million in cost savings the combined company was targeting, Tuna Amobi, analyst at CFRA Research, wrote in a report on Wednesday. It could be why ViacomCBS' market value has declined more sharply than its media peers.

ViacomCBS, which withdrew its financial guidance for 2020 on Friday due to coronavirus concerns, said it still expects to achieve its projected cost savings over the next three years.

Cost cutting aside, about one-third of ViacomCBS' revenue in 2020 is expected to come from national advertising, which puts it at risk to industry-wide advertising declines. The loss of March Madness could also cost the company $250 million or more in advertising revenue, UBS projected.

Analysts at Bernstein and UBS are also concerned that the economic downturn could increase cord cutting. Production stoppages could threaten revenue the company was expecting from selling shows to third parties. And film studio Paramount is being forced to push its release dates, which could hurt the box office for those films in the long run.

Overall, analysts are expecting revenue of around $24 billion (Bernstein) to $28 billion (UBS) in 2020, versus $27.8 billion last year.

Discovery

Market capitalization: $13.7 billion, down 35% from Feb. 19

The good news: Discovery said it had insurance on the 2020 Summer Olympics, which should boost the company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization by $185 million in 2020, now that the sports event has been delayed. It also has healthy free cash flow; Bernstein expects it to generate about $2 billion per year, which is about as much as it has on hand, including a $500 million line of credit it just drew down on.

The bad news: Discovery, which generates most of its revenue from advertising and affiliate fees, is very susceptible to declines in the advertising market and would be hurt if cord-cutting accelerates. The company tossed out its financial guidance for the coming quarter because of the effects of the coronavirus pandemic, and said it's looking for ways to cut costs.

Overall, the analysts are forecasting between $10.2 billion (Bernstein) and $10.75 billion (UBS) in revenue this year, compared to $11.1 billion in 2019.

AMC Networks

Market capitalization: $1.45 billion, down 30% from Feb. 19

The good news: AMC Networks, owner of AMC, BBC America, and other cable brands, is largely entertainment driven. It isn't as exposed to potential declines in sports or local ad revenue. Its niche streaming services, like Shudder, have also been growing, and could see a boost from the increase in people who are home and looking for programming to watch. Its flagship show, "The Walking Dead," has also improved its ratings declines in recent weeks, UBS noted.

AMC's balance sheet is also in solid shape. Worst case scenario, based on Bernstein's analysis, it should generate enough cash to make its debt payments for the next two years and refinance.

The bad news: AMC Networks is still threatened by the broader declines in advertising and increase in cord cutting, and production delays could hurt it in the coming quarters. The company recently said it would not be able to air the finale of the current season of "The Walking Dead" as planned, and will have to air it later as a special, for example.

Overall, the analysts are estimating between $2.9 billion (Bernstein) and $3 billion (UBS) in revenue this year, compared to $3.1 billion in 2019.

For more on how the coronavirus is affecting media, see our coverage on BI Prime:

• Analysts lay out the financial damage each of Disney's businesses could face, as it closes parks and postpones films due to the coronavirus: Disney is one of the media companies most exposed the impact of the coronavirus because of its large theme park and theatrical businesses.
• Why analysts say Disney and Discovery are the media giants most threatened by the coronavirus, but Comcast could fare better: Companies that generate significant shares of their revenue from theme parks, films, and advertising are most sensitive to the pandemic, and a potential economic downturn it could ignite.
• Why Netflix's business could take a hit from the coronavirus, despite reports that 'stay at home' stocks could benefit: Much of Netflix's revenue growth is international, including markets like Europe and Asia, which are especially vulnerable to the virus.
• Disney's surprise CEO change makes sense because of the coronavirus' growing impact on its business, according to a Wall Street analyst: The day-to-day pressures of the Disney CEO may mount if the coronavirus continues to spread outside of China, drawing former chief Bob Iger's focus at a crucial creative moment.