Shoots to resume with immediate effect in Maharashtra, Elara Capital shares what the broadcast industry can expect in the coming months

• Elara Capital’s latest analysis predicts that GEC's performance will improve in the near term due to fresh content on channels.
• It further shares a few trends that the industry can predict in the coming months as the Maharashtra Government permits shootings of TV shows, films and digital content in the non-containment zones.

As per an update by the Maharashtra Government on Sunday May 31, the shootings of films, TV shows and OTT shows can be resumed in the non-containment zones.

In its latest analysis, Elara Capital predicts that the shoots for films will probably begin at a later time, except the ones which have a closed set ready or the ones which require some minimal shoot needs for its completion.

It further said that this move is a big relief for TV broadcasters like ZEEL, SUN TV and TV18 as GEC genre had seen a sharp down tick in viewership share from 52% pre-COVID to 43% in the last weeks. Ad volumes too had declined by almost 35% since pre-COVID given no new shows were being showcased. The decline would have been sharper, not including mythological series by DD which attracted big eyeballs during initial phase of lockdown

TV consumption had grown by 40% in the second week of April, led by 31% increase in time spent. However, the consumption growth still remains healthy at 26% until last week led by 19% growth in time spent; Elara Capital expect this to remain strong until the end of year.

In terms of advertising performance, TV ad revenue had declined by 80% in the second week of May primarily due to IPL. Post June, Elara Capital expects sharp convergence in this decline as IPL base will move away. Once fresh content starts from July and August, we may see the decline factor converging towards 15-20% with some more respite in H2 and festive.

TV will see the second best performance, after digital, in terms of advertising and expect the quantum of decline to converge sharply in the coming months. On the other hand, print may continue to report sharp decline in the coming months as circulation gets negatively impacted.

Elara Capital estimates a higher growth in subs revenue (12-15% YoY) for FY21 given the increase in number of active TV households. News and movies have been the largest beneficiary during lockdown and it expects GEC to improve in the near term due to the fresh content on channels.

The analysis further said that even after lockdown is lifted gradually across the nation, TV consumption will remain strong throughout the year due to the following reasons:

• People avoiding socialising.
• More people opting to work from home.
• More people staying indoors until the fear factor moves away.

While the production process is similar for OTT and TV, the only difference is that TV is continuous and OTT is time bound and has limited episodes.

Here are few things we can expect:

• TV-based content to start before web series as the latter involves more complex sets comparatively
• Movie shoot to start with a bigger delay even after OTT as the larger movie stars/actors will take time to come back on sets.
• A lot of movie and web series shoots would have got disrupted as monsoon will begin June onwards in Mumbai.
• Many large non fiction shows like Comedy Nights with Kapil Sharma and KBC are also exploring an option to shoot from home or online in order to avoid use of large sets which involves multiple people.
• Since it is not possible to test people on sets on a daily basis, broadcasters are also exploring an option of shooting with the entire cast and crew in a particular location for 15-20 days based on schedule, until then all will have to quarantine and work together.

Broadcasters to cut costs on production budget given the tepid ad environment

Pressure on Broadcasters & OTT players to cut down on costs due to revenue impact from ad revenues etc. There will be an increase in costs due to sanitisation facilities for actors, cast & crew, etc. Shooting in Bombay is a big challenge where majority shoots happen and if the production house plans to shift out of Bombay, it would further add to the costs. Cost of TV shows and web series will go up by almost 4-5% due to precautionary measures. Vanity Van sharing would change to separate for each actor which too would increase costs. Budgets for large non-fiction shows, which is in the range of Rs 60-70 crore, would be cut by almost 30%.

Temporary gains by some broadcasters to get impacted after shooting begins

GRPs of SUN TV have moved up from 1,100 towards 1,800 only on the back of large movie catalogue but once shoot resumes for Star and Zee Tamil for new shows, Elara Capital expects GRP of SUN TV to come down. ZEE5 has been the most aggressive in terms of content production even though the budgets are being cut at various levels, SUN TV remains to be a laggard when it comes to new web series/new non fiction shows.