IIT-Mandi lists out eight states where the lockdown should not be lifted — including Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh

• A new study by the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Mandi recommends that the lockdown restrictions should stay in place for eight Indian states where coronavirus cases are expected to increase in the short-term.
• This includes Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh where their forecast predicts that the states will move to the red zone.
• States like Kerala and Karnataka, which had a high incidence of coronavirus cases in the past, will likely be on the downtrend.

Researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Mandi have recommended that lockdown shouldn’t be lifted on May 3 in eight of India’s states. This includes Maharashtra, Delhi, Rajasthan, Gujarat, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana and Tamil Nadu.

Their study, which is yet to be peer-reviewed, forecasts that these eight states will be the most-affected in the coming days. “Maharashtra is likely to be the most affected states with around 9787.24 cumulative cases by 1 May 2020,” it says.


States like Kerala and Karnataka, which had a high incidence of coronavirus cases in the past, will likely be on the downtrend. These states will shift from the red zone to blue. Whereas, states like Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh show the opposite trajectory of moving to the red zone

“While states in green and light green zones, namely, Himachal Pradesh, Goa, Uttrakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, Odisha, Sikkim, Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, Meghalaya show very less growth in the infected cases till 1 May, therefore, lockdown may be uplifted there,” concludes the study.


Here’s a list of the eight states where the lockdown should not be lifted and the predicted increase in cases by May 1:


In order to make their estimates, IIT-Mandi’s Sarita Azad and Neeraj Poonia used Holt’s second-order exponential smoothing method and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model.

The study recommends that the government should impose extra precautions in these states since cases will significantly rise in the coming days.

See also:
List of red zones and containment areas in Rajasthan’s Udaipur, Kota, and Jaipur — no relaxations even after lockdown ends on May 3

List of red zones in Tamil Nadu from Chennai to Coimbatore to Tiruppur as Kottayam and Idukki join the ranks

Punjab CM extends curfew till May 17 but relaxes it for 4 hours between 7-11 am