Budget 2024 to fuel stock markets: Bloomberg Survey

Budget 2024, which is set to be presented on July 22nd, is set to accelerate the growth of Indian stock markets by as much as 20%, a recent survey by Bloomberg noted.

While some respondents hope that the NSE Nifty50, which is currently trading at 24,273.35 points, might reach 26,000 points by the end of this year, others estimate the index to inch up even higher. The budget is likely to boost consumer spending, accelerate consumption, and support infrastructure development, noted half of the 24 experts Bloomberg surveyed.

Data by Bloomberg Intelligence predicted that the estimated earnings per share (EPS) of companies on the MSCI India Index is set to rise by 15.6% on year basis, for the calendar year 2024. In contrast, Chinese firms are expected to grow at about 10%.

One-fourth of surveyed analysts noted that pushing capital expenditure would be the government's top priority, while the other half thought the focus would be on boosting consumer demand. Naturally, analysts see potential growth in consumer discretionary stocks in the months to come, followed by financial services.

Focus on Women, Capex

Many are expecting the government to raise the standard deduction threshold from the current Rs 50,000 to Rs 1,00,000. The government is also thinking of raising the limits of the Public Provident Fund (PPF) from Rs 15,000 to Rs 25,000.

As per Ashwajit Singh, Founder and Managing Director of IPE Global, "the budget is expected to be tilted towards adopting a strategy for the underprivileged, youth, farmers, and women. The budget is expected to reflect the government’s tried and tested formula of ‘guarantees’ by opting for income transfer policies and spending more on welfare schemes in government campaigns in India. Allocations for existing schemes such as 'Housing for All’, MGNREGA, and health insurance for these sections of society are likely to increase while new schemes may be introduced".

According to Badal Yagnik, CEO of Colliers India, the real estate segment is optimistic regarding this budget: "Housing, infrastructure development, sustainability, and digitization will remain at the core of the budget, which will go a long way in supporting real estate growth across segments in the long term. EV infrastructure, renewable energy, and green financing will continue to remain in focus, creating a strong base for a sustainable future. Incentivization of green buildings through minimum alternate tax or tax breaks similar to the infrastructure sector will be particularly beneficial. Meanwhile, retail investors are calling for additional rationalizing of the capital gains tax structure. The Union Budget 2024–25 should explore initiatives to boost greater retail engagement in REITs and InvITs".

Anooshka Soham Bathwal, founder of Dhanvesttor, a financial management platform, expects that the government's focus is likely to keep driving the increased participation of women in the workforce in the upcoming full budget, where it can attain the same by incentivising higher education for women. "To promote entrepreneurship, the government can introduce special benefits for the businesses started by women. Further steps towards a stable policy environment and ease of doing business are also desirable. Incentives on tax, funding, and growth for women-centric organizations can help to further attain the inclusive growth objective of government".

Bathwal also emphasized that the budget should promote entrepreneurs and the country's startup system.
"Entrepreneurs are advocating for additional tax breaks for investors and promoters to attract more domestic capital. As India progresses towards becoming a global hub for entrepreneurship and innovation, fostering both technological and process innovations is crucial. Significant improvements in ongoing training and skill upgrades are vital, particularly given the rapid growth in Tier 2 and Tier 3 markets. Additionally, the government needs to address the credit challenges faced by SMEs", she continued

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