SIMPLY PUT: 10 days before budget, these stock tickers have some clues on what the budget doc may have

The market knows everything. Even what the Finance Minister is thinking. Apparently.

Writing the budget is a top secret, super-clandestine affair. Even before the pandemic, reporters were not allowed to enter the building for weeks before the budget.


But the budget is also based on the current realities of the economy, the needs of the country and the resources available with the government. And, most of it can be reasonably estimated. And, the market is full of such forecasters and traders who position themselves based on these estimates. And, here’s what the tickers are telling us.


The market seems to be expecting the Finance Minister’s speech on February 1 to tell us more of what we heard last year. More spending on infrastructure, more thrust on local manufacturing, big money to buy and produce defence equipment and technologies, as well as some push for renewable energy.


So, more of the same stuff. How do we know that? Look at some of the stocks in demand in Jan 2022 so far.


Not just that, Stocktwits, a social media platform for market buffs, did a survey, which showed similar expectations.


Hope floats that a lot of money will be spent to encourage construction of new renewable energy capacity because the Indian Prime Minister has made some big promises at the international climate summit in Glasgow, about two months ago.

Now, the question is did the government deliver on the promises of the last budget? As of November, we don’t have official data thereafter, the government had spent less than half the amount budgeted for capital investments including infrastructure, and even the entire amount set aside for defence purchases may not have been spent.

Not just in spending money, the government is likely to miss its target on making money via divestment (sale of government assets including shares in companies). For a third year in a row. Even if the LIC IPO goes through, the Finance Ministry is unlikely to raise the ₹1.75 lakh crore it wanted through sale of assets.


But then, governments not meeting targets isn’t really surprising. Is it?

For more in-depth stories on what else is expected from the budget, visit our dedicated section Budget Insider. There are articles, interviews with experts, and every detail that matters, minus the jargon.

On the budget day, right after the Finance Minister’s speech, we will be live on all our social media handles with a bunch of experts with the most relevant announcements, the simplest explanations and the most incisive insights. So do tune in for our live broadcast from any of your devices on Feb 1, right after the FM’s speech in Parliament.

For now, these are some interesting expert opinions on what could play out in the budget and thereafter.