"Dammit, Janet!" is a reference to The Rocky Horror Picture Show.
The futures market is putting a 30% probability that the Fed hikes rates on September 17. In other words, the market would be surprised by a rate hike.
And that probability has been falling all year.
The nominal GDP growth rate is actually lower today than it was in September 2012 when the Fed's monetary policy was even looser.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tells us growth has decelerated to a 1.5% rate.
Fed usually tightens monetary policy when nominal GDP growth is above 4%. We're at 3.3% right now.
Commodity prices are tumbling, putting the economy at risk of deflation.
Junk bonds are getting slammed, and they'll be in more trouble when rates rise.
Emerging markets are getting slammed.
Core PCE — the Fed's preferred measure of inflation — is tumbling.
Core CPI may be higher, but not by much.
Here's a look at how CPI and PCE differ as measures of inflation.
Oil, which is weighted more heavily in CPI, has been tanking.
Meanwhile, oil production remains elevated. This provides no relief to prices.
Oil supply is outpacing oil demand, which is bad for prices.
Expectations for inflation are deteriorating.
Employee cost growth is basically going nowhere.
The dollar has been getting much stronger.
Prices of traded goods are in deflation.
US manufacturing purchasing managers are saying that growth is slowing.
US labor market conditions are actually deteriorating right now.
Financial market conditions are worsening.
Multiple measures confirm that market conditions getting worse.
Sales are in outright decline.
