- Home
- stock market
- These charts have Jeff Gundlach pleading, 'DAMMIT, JANET! DON'T RAISE RATES!'
These charts have Jeff Gundlach pleading, 'DAMMIT, JANET! DON'T RAISE RATES!'
"Dammit, Janet!" is a reference to The Rocky Horror Picture Show.
![These charts have Jeff Gundlach pleading, 'DAMMIT, JANET! DON'T RAISE RATES!'](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fstaticbiassets.in%2Fthumb%2Fmsid-48940551%2Cwidth-700%2Cheight-525%2Cimgsize-534412%2Fdammit-janet-is-a-reference-to-the-rocky-horror-picture-show-.jpg&w=3840&q=75)
The futures market is putting a 30% probability that the Fed hikes rates on September 17. In other words, the market would be surprised by a rate hike.
![The futures market is putting a 30% probability that the Fed hikes rates on September 17. In other words, the market would be surprised by a rate hike.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940552,width-700,height-525,imgsize-2500882/the-futures-market-is-putting-a-30-probability-that-the-fed-hikes-rates-on-september-17-in-other-words-the-market-would-be-surprised-by-a-rate-hike-.jpg)
And that probability has been falling all year.
![And that probability has been falling all year.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940554,width-700,height-525,imgsize-305711/and-that-probability-has-been-falling-all-year-.jpg)
The nominal GDP growth rate is actually lower today than it was in September 2012 when the Fed's monetary policy was even looser.
![The nominal GDP growth rate is actually lower today than it was in September 2012 when the Fed](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940555,width-700,height-525,imgsize-440110/the-nominal-gdp-growth-rate-is-actually-lower-today-than-it-was-in-september-2012-when-the-feds-monetary-policy-was-even-looser-.jpg)
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model tells us growth has decelerated to a 1.5% rate.
![The Atlanta Fed](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940556,width-700,height-525,imgsize-686501/the-atlanta-feds-gdpnow-model-tells-us-growth-has-decelerated-to-a-1-5-rate-.jpg)
Fed usually tightens monetary policy when nominal GDP growth is above 4%. We're at 3.3% right now.
![Fed usually tightens monetary policy when nominal GDP growth is above 4%. We](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940557,width-700,height-525,imgsize-484814/fed-usually-tightens-monetary-policy-when-nominal-gdp-growth-is-above-4-were-at-3-3-right-now-.jpg)
Commodity prices are tumbling, putting the economy at risk of deflation.
![Commodity prices are tumbling, putting the economy at risk of deflation.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940558,width-700,height-525,imgsize-574015/commodity-prices-are-tumbling-putting-the-economy-at-risk-of-deflation-.jpg)
Junk bonds are getting slammed, and they'll be in more trouble when rates rise.
![Junk bonds are getting slammed, and they](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940559,width-700,height-525,imgsize-640659/junk-bonds-are-getting-slammed-and-theyll-be-in-more-trouble-when-rates-rise-.jpg)
Emerging markets are getting slammed.
![Emerging markets are getting slammed.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940560,width-700,height-525,imgsize-560186/emerging-markets-are-getting-slammed-.jpg)
Core PCE — the Fed's preferred measure of inflation — is tumbling.
![Core PCE — the Fed](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940561,width-700,height-525,imgsize-356572/core-pce-the-feds-preferred-measure-of-inflation-is-tumbling-.jpg)
Core CPI may be higher, but not by much.
![Core CPI may be higher, but not by much.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940563,width-700,height-525,imgsize-826724/core-cpi-may-be-higher-but-not-by-much-.jpg)
Here's a look at how CPI and PCE differ as measures of inflation.
![Here](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940564,width-700,height-525,imgsize-506000/heres-a-look-at-how-cpi-and-pce-differ-as-measures-of-inflation-.jpg)
Oil, which is weighted more heavily in CPI, has been tanking.
![Oil, which is weighted more heavily in CPI, has been tanking.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940565,width-700,height-525,imgsize-391542/oil-which-is-weighted-more-heavily-in-cpi-has-been-tanking-.jpg)
Meanwhile, oil production remains elevated. This provides no relief to prices.
![Meanwhile, oil production remains elevated. This provides no relief to prices.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940566,width-700,height-525,imgsize-661027/meanwhile-oil-production-remains-elevated-this-provides-no-relief-to-prices-.jpg)
Oil supply is outpacing oil demand, which is bad for prices.
![Oil supply is outpacing oil demand, which is bad for prices.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940567,width-700,height-525,imgsize-773347/oil-supply-is-outpacing-oil-demand-which-is-bad-for-prices-.jpg)
Expectations for inflation are deteriorating.
![Expectations for inflation are deteriorating.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940568,width-700,height-525,imgsize-485384/expectations-for-inflation-are-deteriorating-.jpg)
Wage growth is pathetic.
![Wage growth is pathetic.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940569,width-700,height-525,imgsize-636171/wage-growth-is-pathetic-.jpg)
Employee cost growth is basically going nowhere.
![Employee cost growth is basically going nowhere.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940570,width-700,height-525,imgsize-738358/employee-cost-growth-is-basically-going-nowhere-.jpg)
The dollar has been getting much stronger.
![The dollar has been getting much stronger.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940571,width-700,height-525,imgsize-616760/the-dollar-has-been-getting-much-stronger-.jpg)
Prices of traded goods are in deflation.
![Prices of traded goods are in deflation.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940572,width-700,height-525,imgsize-664781/prices-of-traded-goods-are-in-deflation-.jpg)
US manufacturing purchasing managers are saying that growth is slowing.
![US manufacturing purchasing managers are saying that growth is slowing.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940573,width-700,height-525,imgsize-360345/us-manufacturing-purchasing-managers-are-saying-that-growth-is-slowing-.jpg)
US labor market conditions are actually deteriorating right now.
![US labor market conditions are actually deteriorating right now.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940574,width-700,height-525,imgsize-333536/us-labor-market-conditions-are-actually-deteriorating-right-now-.jpg)
Financial market conditions are worsening.
![Financial market conditions are worsening.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940575,width-700,height-525,imgsize-648090/financial-market-conditions-are-worsening-.jpg)
Multiple measures confirm that market conditions getting worse.
![Multiple measures confirm that market conditions getting worse.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940576,width-700,height-525,imgsize-593446/multiple-measures-confirm-that-market-conditions-getting-worse-.jpg)
Sales are in outright decline.
![Sales are in outright decline.](https://staticbiassets.in/thumb/msid-48940579,width-700,height-525,imgsize-1040431/sales-are-in-outright-decline-.jpg)
Popular Right Now
Popular Keywords
Advertisement