What Can Be Expected From Putin’s Forthcoming India Visit: Trade Worth $20 Mn or More?

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Russian President Vladimir Putin at the 15th India-Russia Annual Summit in New Delhi next month, it will add a new chapter in Modi’s efforts to strengthen bilateral ties with India’s neighbours and power centres in the region after assuming power. Modi has already visited Japan where he tried to hard-sell India as a manufacturing destination, asking Japanese investors to ‘come and make in India,’ and signed deals that will lead to Japanese investments worth $35 billion over five years. Chinese President Xi Jinping too visited India in a bid to tilt Sino-Indian relation more towards cooperation and co-existence, especially from the perspective of trade and economic growth despite continuing tensions at the border between the two countries. Modi’s meeting with Putin will help expand India’s relation with one of its close allies since gaining independence, and in turn broaden its influence over the larger Euro-Asian region.

For Putin, this will the fifth visit to India as Russian president—he made his maiden visit to India in 2002 during his first term as president; followed by three trips in 2005, 2007 and 2012 (the last one was eclipsed by massive protests in New Delhi following the gang rape).

In addition to strengthening the political foundation for bilateral relation for the years to come, Putin’s visit will give a boost to four areas—defence, space, civil nuclear energy and trade. The two countries are expected to sign deals for co-production of mid-range military and civilian aircraft, including MC-21 mid-range aircraft whose mass production will begin in 2017. India is mooting the idea of jointly manufacturing the aircraft in the country as part of the ‘Make in India’ campaign, leading to creation of domestic jobs and transfer of aircraft technology. Plans are also afoot to build production plants in India for Sukhoi Superjet-100 and KA-226 helicopters, both of which can be used for military and civilian purposes. Indian government is also hopeful about collaborating with Russia on aircraft engine manufacturing projects. A major portion of Indian military's hardware requirement is already sourced from Russia, making Russia one of the leading suppliers of defence equipment.

The two countries are also expected to enhance cooperation in the field of space exploration. Russia is already supporting India’s ambitious plan to launch the first two Indian astronauts into space by 2015—Russia is expected to help build the astronaut capsule; select and train the astronauts; and offer Indian astronauts a trial run abroad its Soyuz spacecraft . Space instrument engineering is another area where cooperation between the two countries is expected.

In order to strengthen joint efforts in civil nuclear energy, Putin is expected to visit Kudankulam Atomic Power Project site in Tamil Nadu, which may also lead to joint exploration of other similar projects.

With both the countries setting a target of bilateral trade worth $20 billion by 2015, business and investment will be a key part of discussions between Modi and Putin. Stronger trade relation with India is especially important for Russian following its self-imposed ban on food imports—meat, fish, fruits, vegetables, milk and milk products—from the US, the EU, Canada, Norway and Australia in retaliation to Western sanctions imposed over Russia's actions in Ukraine. For India closer ties with Russia also means enhanced support for its bid for permanent membership of United Nations Security Council.

Putin visit will also offer an opportunity to juxtapose two of the two strongest leaders in the Euro-Asian region. While Putin, who is accused of stifling freedom, is seen to be courting autocratic means to strengthen his grip within Russia and outside, Modi has already won kudos for giving a decisive strategic vision for a resurging India while positioning himself as the prime minister of the biggest democratic country in the world. A better bonhomie between the two leaders will also augur well for India’s efforts to counter China’s growing military and political influence in the region.