We're About To See One Of The Greatest Economics Experiments In History...
What's going on in Japan is inevitably going to be one of the greatest economics experiments in history.
The new Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, has promised to jumpstart the Japanese economy and get out of deflation almost entirely through financial measures.
The US has had pretty decent success (by historical standards) coming out of the financial crisis, but the US engaged in a mix of monetary stimulus and fiscal stimulus. And beyond that, the underlying dynamics (mostly demographics) remain fairly favorable in the US.
The UK experienced some monetary stimulus (though arguably not enough) and tried fiscal austerity, so that's its own experiment.
Cullen Roche writes, in regards to the latest comments out of Japan (including the incoming BOJ chief's line about doing "whatever it takes" to fight deflation):
Ben Bernanke once said that a determined central bank could always end a deflation. And I guess we’re about to find out whether that’s true or not. What’s currently going on in Japan is rather incredible. They’re throwing the kitchen sink, garbage disposal and all the plumbing at their fight with deflation.
No matter what happens, this will be a great experiment.
If it all works, great.
If it doesn't, it will be a great lesson on the limitations of policy — which may either be technical limitations on what monetary policy can achieve, or limitations based on politics and will.