We Could Be Witnessing The Dawn Of A New Stock Market Super Cycle
Many have characterized the current market as a secular bear market.
But in a new research report, Fidelity portfolio manager Jurrien Timmer writes that from a technical perspective, this secular bear may be turning into a secular bull.
Timmer examined how the S&P 500 has been performing since 1871 and discovered that on average, prolonged periods of below-average returns, or secular bear markets, last about 14.5 years on average.
By that measure, the secular bear market that we're currently in is "getting a bit long in the tooth" now that it's in its 13th year, and going by historical patterns, is likely to end.
But it's no sure thing that we are entering a bullish super-cycle. Many investors, especially pension funds that have lowered their risk profiles dramatically, aren't really expecting the market to go into a secular bull market.
Nevertheless, Timmer thinks that the end of this bear market isn't too far off.
"This study of market history seems to suggest that maybe the worst is over," he writes. "If so, it will be important for investors to take a close look at their portfolios to make sure they are not too defensively positioned and that their investment mix is in line with their long-term goals."
Timmer took a close look at each of the previous secular bull and bear markets.