Jones doesn't stop at a prediction for how many payrolls were created in October, though. He also predicts exactly how
"The SG forecast is below consensus and a marginal negative intraday impact for risky assets is expected if the SG forecast materialises," says Jones. "We expect [the S&P 500] to move down 0.2% and the [10-year] USD swap rate down by 2 [basis points] in the first half-an-hour after the release."
Jones says there is a statistical relationship between the deviation of the actual nonfarm payroll print from the consensus forecast and the market's reaction.
"The relationship between asset changes around the release and the spread NFP versus consensus is measured by a regression (OLS)," says Jones.