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Wall Street analysts are throwing shade at Pfizer's deal with Mylan, saying it will hurt profits through 2020

Jul 30, 2019, 21:47 IST

FILE PHOTO: The Pfizer logo is seen at their world headquarters in Manhattan, New York, U.S.Reuters

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Pfizer fell as much as 6% on Tuesday after its recent deal with Mylan prompted a handful of banks to downgrade the stock.

Several Wall Street analysts noted that the company's decision to merge Upjohn - Pfizer's off-patent drug business - with Mylan may weaken earnings expectations. The spin-off was announced July 29 after Mylan agreed to the deal in its second-quarter earnings report.

The announcement sent Mylan stock up as much as 19% on Monday, with Pfizer shares slipping about 4%.

Pfizer will continue to include Upjohn in its earnings reports until the deal closes in 2020.

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Here's what three Wall Street firms had to say about what the deal means for Pfizer going forward.

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Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgrades to "neutral"

Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded the company to "neutral" from "buy" and shifted its price target to $41 per share.

Pfizer's valuation now depends on its innovation business RemainCo, which sees "dilution worse than expected," according to a BAML note. The note also said Pfizer's valuation of Upjohn "comes with a disproportionate loss of profit" for the company.

Now that Pfizer relies on RemainCo for a greater proportion of its revenue stream, BAML is "skeptical" the business can bring enough profitability to justify an overall "buy" rating.

Morgan Stanley downgrades to "equal-weight"

Morgan Stanley downgraded the company to "equal-weight" from "overweight" and moved its price target to $40 from $48.

The merger "exposes lower-than-expected earnings" for both Upjohn and RemainCo, Morgan Stanley analysts said. The bank anticipates 15% lower earnings per share in 2020, citing increased regulatory pressure, lower margins for RemainCo, and weaker Upjohn revenue.

UBS still weighing deal's impact on Pfizer rating

UBS held a "neutral" rating for Pfizer shares with a price target of $43 before news of the spin-off. The bank continues to review the deal's specifics and has not yet announced its post-merger outlook.

Pfizer's split with Upjohn may be two-to-three years too late, as off-patent drug business has only continued to contract, a UBS analyst note said. The deal's first impression "does not suggest much to be excited about," the bank added, with weakness expected to continue beyond Tuesday's stock drop.

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