Wal-Mart is finally paying the price

Wal-Mart is paying back.

At its annual investor day, the company cut its outlook for profits over the next two years, and forecast a drop of 6% to 12% in 2017.

Following the news, shares fell as much as 10%. This wiped out about $18 billion of the company's market value, and was the worst drop for the stock in over a decade.

In a note to clients, Stifel analysts wrote:

"While the headlines suggest WMT's guidance specifics disappointed or WMT is entering a "reinvestment period" - we think the underlying narrative is far more important. The market is reacting to meaningful evidence that WMT has substantially over-earned. WMT calls out specifics of wage and price investments - and yes these are discrete actions taken by WMT; but we believe they are just symptoms of where WMT sits in its history."

They have a "hold" rating on the stock.

Previously, Wal-Mart kept its expenses on wages low and instead focused on its share of the retail market. That's a strategy that probably worked, since Wal-Mart is the world's largest retailer.

However, Wednesday's news is an indication that this has now switched, and Wal-Mart may have over-earned all along.

While the wage hikes are good for workers, news that they would hurt profits down the road is bad for investors.

The analysts wrote, "On the positive side we think there are hints of better core US WMT traction in the meeting thus far - but the basic case for over-earning is so clear to us that investors must move out their expectations for opportunities for and timing of future operating profit growth."