VALLIERE: The GOP's Internal 'French Revolution' Could Lead To Another Confidence-Sapping Political Fiasco

The crisis may be over, but "things could get messy again this winter," Potomac Research Group's Greg Valliere wrote clients this morning.

And a fractured Republican party could be the reason why.

"We think there's a 40% chance that there will be a modest deal before mid-December, but we're not inclined to go higher than that - in light of signs that the Tea Party has actually become emboldened," said Valliere.

Going into the winter (when we'll likely see another budget/debt ceiling showdown), the GOP remains bifurcated in a manner not too dissimilar from the French Revolution, Valliere writes.

REIGN OF TERROR: It's impossible to overstate the fury directed toward establishment Republicans by Tea Party activists. Five incumbent Republican Senators now face primary challenges: Thad Cochran (Miss.), Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Lindsey Graham (S.C.), Lamar Alexander (Tenn.), and Pat Roberts (Kansas). This is looking (sort of) like the French Revolution, when the Committee for Public Safety became more and more radical, beheading the moderates, until the revolution imploded.

"Yes, the deficit is plunging, but still another confidence-sapping fiasco is possible in January," Valliere concludes.