UK inflation just hit a 12-month high - but it's still only at 0.2%
The Office for National Statistics says the consumer price index - the key measure of inflation - increased by 0.2% in December, compared to the same figure last year. That was bang in line with economists' forecasts.
The consumer price index rose by 0.1% compared to November, against estimates of a 0.1% rise. Both the year-on-year and month-on-month figures were an acceleration. Year-on-year inflation was just 0.1% in November and flat on the prior month.
The year-on-year figure, the most watched measure, represents a 12-month high. Inflation has been between -0.1% and 0.1% for the last 11 months due to a collapse in oil prices and a supermarket price war that has led to slashed prices.
Interestingly, the ONS says "Movements in transport costs, particularly air fares and to a lesser extent motor fuels, were the main contributors to the rise in the rate" in December.
But this is less to do with the price of oil than seasonal changes by airlines in their prices. The ONS says:
December typically sees a high monthly increase in air fares, coinciding with the Christmas holiday period. The November to December 2015 increase of 46% was the highest since 2002, and considerably higher than the 19% increase last year. This has resulted in air fares being the largest contributor to the increase in the inflation rate between November and December.
It is important to bear in mind that air fare prices are highly variable, both between years and between months in the same year. In fact, a November to December increase of over 40% is not unusual, and was seen in each year from 2009 to 2011.
The ONS says inflation faced downward pressure due to falling tobacco and alcohol prices. Supermarkets typically slash the price of alcohol in December to coincide with the Christmas period, knowing they can move greater volumes then.
Despite the acceleration in inflation in December, it remains well below the Bank of England's 2% target.