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The future.
- UBS predicted that the kitchen might be dead by 2030.
- That's because smartphone-obsessed millennials are ordering food via delivery apps and doing less home cooking.
- UBS said the whole food production ecosystem could change as people buy less fresh food and supermarkets, and go out to eat less frequently.
- Concerns about obesity might be one of the barriers that stops the prediction coming true.
Millennials are, famously, responsible for killing off lots of established industries thanks to their love of smartphones and avocados. Their next victim might be a domestic chore: Home cooking.
According to a UBS note to investors, the rise of food delivery apps such as Uber Eats and Deliveroo might kill the kitchen.
Here's what UBS analysts wrote:
"There could be a scenario where by 2030 most meals currently cooked at home are instead ordered online and delivered from either restaurants or central kitchens. The ramifications for the food retail, food producer and restaurant industries could be material, as well as the impact on property markets, home appliances and robotics."
The endgame for this particular scenario, the bank predicted, would see people ordering multiple meals a week from food delivery startups like Deliveroo or Uber Eats. That food would be much cheaper to make and deliver, thanks to robots and delivery drones putting human chefs and drivers out of a job.
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Mealkit delivery services such as Blue Apron or HelloFresh would fill any gaps, but still require minimal preparation. The food delivery market would be worth as much as $365 billion, UBS said, and services like JustEat and Deliveroo would be the major winners.
In the same scenario, the bank predicted people might go to supermarkets and buy less fresh food. They would also go out to eat in restaurants less, meaning lots of restaurants and supermarkets might shut down or consolidate.
Instead, the bulk of food people eat would come from "Dark kitchens," a model already pioneered by Deliveroo. This is where staff (or, in UBS' vision, robots) prepare different types of takeaway meals in grouped kitchens.
Deliveroo runs pop-up kitchens in shipping crates, where different restaurant brands prepare food from the same site - often from car parks. The thinking is that this is much cheaper than doing takeaway from a restaurant located on prime real estate.
People will also buy fewer pots, pans, and other kitchen accessories. These graphs show just how possible this kitchen-free future is:
UBS
While food delivery services are still pretty niche, per figure 8, people are getting more used to on-demand services and food delivery apps are only becoming more popular.
Still, the dead kitchen scenario isn't inevitable. UBS has hedged its bets for any gourmands horrified by the prospect of always eating pre-prepared food at home.
As UBS references, Deliveroo relies on an army of low-paid, self-employed delivery riders who forgo the benefits of full-time employment for flexibility.
In the case of Deliveroo, riders are fighting for better rights, which may lead to government regulation and greater expense for food delivery startups. In the worst case scenario, strict regulation could end Deliveroo's business.
Given that obesity is a health crisis in the UK, the government might also step up public health campaigning against takeaway food and portion sizes, encouraging more people to cook at home.
Finally, cheap kitchen robots and drones might take years to arrive.
All of these factors would contribute to a rise, rather than decline in home cooking.