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Two computer models predict who will win the Super Bowl

Jan 30, 2019, 20:25 IST

Maddie Meyer/Getty Images

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  • Elo and Cortana have made their picks for the Super Bowl.
  • Cortana correctly picked 65% of the games this season and Elo was not far behind at 62%.
  • The computers are backing the New England Patriots ... barely.
  • Check out all of our coverage of Super Bowl LIII here.


The NFL's conference championship games are here, and Cortana is back to make picks in a head-to-head showdown with Elo.

We looked at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's data-journalism site, FiveThirtyEight.

In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. Each gives a likelihood that a team will win, which in theory could help measure the strength of certain lines.

Cortana had another strong season, correctly picking 65% of the games, while Elo nailed 62% overall. Both models struggled in the Wild Card round, went 4-0 in the divisional round, but missed on both conference championship games.

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Here are their picks for the Super Bowl, with the percent chance of winning in parentheses. Point spreads are for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Friday morning.

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