Trump is poised to make a major move that could end his Israel-Palestine peace push - and shake the Middle East
- President Donald Trump reportedly told the Palestinian president that he will move the US embassy to Jerusalem, and may recognize the city as the official capital of Israel on Wednesday.
- Doing so would be in line with Israel's Basic Law, but would violate international law and would likely upset Arabs and Muslims across the region.
- The move could seriously undermine Israeli-Palestinian peace efforts.
- It could also strain regional relationships the US has, potentially putting its strategic interests at risk.
President Donald Trump reportedly plans to move the US embassy to Jerusalem on Tuesday, and is likely to announce that the US will recognize the city as the official capital of Israel this week, according to various media reports.
Trump informed Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordanian King Abdullah II of his decision on Tuesday
Leaders and diplomats across the Middle East have predicted that such a move might result in floundering peace negotiations, emboldened extremists, and even a new conflict in the region. Abbas has stated that relocating the embassy would bring "dangerous consequences" with it, and one of his aides said that recognizing Jerusalem as Israel's capital would lead the Palestinian Authority to cut off ties with the US, Haaretz reports.
"President Abbas warned of the dangerous consequences such a decision would have to the peace process and to the peace, security and stability of the region and of the world," stated Nabil Abu Rudeina, the Palestinian president's spokesperson.
Another senior PA official, Nabil Shaath, made grim predictions about the apparent future of the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations if Trump makes good on his promise.
"The mother of all the deals dies here on the rocks in Jerusalem if he says tomorrow that he recognizes a united Jerusalem as the capital of Israel," Shaath said.
Recognition of Jerusalem, coupled with the embassy move, would be consistent with the stated wishes of Israeli President Benjamin Netanyahu and if Trump follows through on his promises, the US will be the only country in the world with an embassy in the contested holy city.
Ownership over Jerusalem and its holy sites remains politically charged
A US embassy move would elicit strong feelings throughout the Muslim and Arab regions of the Middle East, who see it as an unwelcome intrusion into matters many feel must be decided through negotiations, not unilaterally by the US.
Ayman Safadi, Jordan's Foreign Minister, said that an American recognition would "trigger anger across the Arab and Muslim world, fuel tension and jeopardize peace efforts." He was joined by Egypt's Foreign Ministry which gave Trump a similar warning, along with US-allies Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and France.
On Monday, Turkey's deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag made a grim pronouncement in response to the Trump's potential move, saying it would "be a major catastrophe" for the region. Arab League Secretary-General Aboul Gheit expressed a similar sentiment on Saturday, stating that it could lead to sectarian conflict.
"Today we say very clearly that taking such action is not justified ... it will not serve peace or stability, but will fuel extremism and resort to violence," Gheit said.
The move would almost certainly have detrimental effects on the Israeli-Palestinian peace process as a whole, which Trump's son-in-law and senior advisor Jared Kushner has been tasked with heading up since the transition process.
Although Kushner has declined to confirm whether Trump would indeed recognize Jerusalem as Israel's capital, a delegation from Abbas to the White House stated on Saturday that doing so would lead to a "complete destruction of the peace process" because it make the US unfit to be "an honest broker."
The Palestinians also view Israel as the capital of their future state, and the United Nations maintains that Israel's continued occupation of East Jerusalem, which it conquered in the Six Day War in 1967, is illegal under international law. While several countries previously had embassies in Jerusalem, they have now all either moved to Tel Aviv or cut off relations entirely after Israel added a law stating that the holy city is the "complete and united capital of Israel," according to Haaretz.
Shira Efron, a policy researcher and special advisor on Israel at the RAND Corporation, told Business Insider that even though there are ways the US could legally recognize Jerusalem as the capital, any move would be incredibly risky.
"Advocates of moving the embassy argue that Israel is the only UN member state whose capital is not accepted by the international community," Efron said. "Israel's control and rights to West Jerusalem are not in dispute and therefore there is no legal impediment to acknowledging West Jerusalem - emphasis on West - as Israel's capital. The problem however is that any perceived change in the status quo in Jerusalem, or al-Quds as it's known in the Arab world, has explosive potential on the ground in the city itself and the broader region."
Palestinian Arabs have indicated that they would not sit idly by if Trump names Jerusalem the capital of Israel. Hamas, the Palestinian terrorist organization based in Gaza, has promised a new Intifada, or "tremor," following two previous uprisings against Israeli forces in the late 1980s and early 2000s that resulted in thousands of deaths on both sides.
"It's worth reminding that in the year 2000 a visit by then opposition leader Ariel Sharon to Temple Mount sparked the second intifada that lasted through 2005 and led to death of about 3,000 Palestinians and 1,000 Israelis," Efron said. "Most recently, the 2015 'stabbing Intifada' was prompted in good part by suspicions that Jews were attempting to change the status quo in the Temple Mount.
"While we cannot project with certainty that recognition of Jerusalem would spark violence, the risk of such a development is quite imminent given previous experience."
The move could potentially jeopardize US strategy
A Trump decision on Jerusalem would not only affect Israel and Palestine, Efron warned, but is also likely to have an impact on other Arab and Muslim countries.
The US is currently involved in a number of regional engagements in the Middle East that include countries that are openly hostile to Israel, including Iran and President Bashar al-Assad's Syria.
The US and Russia signed onto a joint effort to lead peace talks in Syria earlier this year, and the US is also still part of the Iran nuclear deal - for now. Although Trump has vowed to exit the deal in October, the US still remains officially committed, but Iran's President Hassan Rouhani said in September that if Trump abandons the accord, "no one will trust America again."
Other regional Arab and non-Arab actors that work closely with the US will also likely be affected.
"A case in point is Turkey, a NATO member and traditionally a US ally, which attributes great importance and is very active in East Jerusalem," Efron said. "Some of these countries are important US allies, such as Jordan and Egypt, and such an act would make it harder for them to work with the United States to advance US interests in the region. We also need to acknowledge that such an act would put US diplomats in the region at risk."
The State Department has reportedly warned American embassies worldwide to heighten security ahead of Trump's expected announcement.
Even if strategic rivalries that are mediated by the US do not in fact unravel, Israel Policy Forum policy director Michael Koplow wrote that the risk of violence stemming from any symbolic American moves is very real.
"There is no question that it will result in chaos and riots somewhere," Koplow wrote on his personal blog. "Is making a completely symbolic statement of moving the embassy worth even one American, Israeli, or Palestinian life?"
"Is it worth even one dollar of property damage? Is it worth the PLO following through on its threat to withdraw its recognition of Israel, or halt the security cooperation that is preventing mass terrorism and rockets from the West Bank?"