Trump badly wants a strong stock market. New data suggests he should stop tweeting to help that happen.
- Since Donald Trump was elected president in 2016, his tweets have become one of the most frequent drivers of volatility in the stock market.
- The president has also repeatedly indicated that maintaining a strong stock market is a priority of his.
- Data compiled by Bank of America shows that on days when Trump is more active on Twitter, the markets typically fall. When Trump tweets less, the markets tend to rise.
- Trump often tweets about impactful trade and economic policy initiatives. And given how often those comments are inflammatory, investors are frequently rattled.
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President Trump might desperately want a healthy stock market, but it appears his Twitter habits aren't helping.
Over the last three years, the market has fallen an average of 9 basis points on days Trump publishes more than 35 tweets, according to data compiled by Bank of America Merrill Lynch. On the flip side, the firm finds the market has risen an average of 5 basis points on days the presidnet has tweeted fewer than five times.
"Trade talk, political campaigning and tweets have contributed to volatility, from China to Fed policy to tax policy," Bank of America said in a note to clients on Tuesday.
The firm also said US economic policy uncertainty - which often directly correlates with volatility - has risen to its highest level in three years.
President Trump uses Twitter to communicate and comment on economic and trade policy, requiring investors to pay close attention to what he tweets about and how often. Trump has also repeatedly used twitter to criticize the US Federal Reserve and Chairman Jerome Powell over its handling of monetary policy.
The president has also said in the past that he wants a strong stock market. Last Monday, Trump said Chinese officials called his administration to restart trade negotiations, sparking a rally that reversed what was expected to be another day of steep losses for stocks.
CNN reported that Trump may have embellished those references to high-level trade talks with China to sooth anxious investors in an attempt to shore up optimism within the markets.