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2 mins read
A recession indicator with a perfect track record has started flashing this week
Since 1976, every recession has been preceded by a disinversion of the yield curve, according to In…
Matthew Fox
1 min read
The yield curve has been inverted for 18 months without a downturn - but the famed indicator isn't wrong, and a recession is near, strategist says
The inverted yield curve has predicted every recession since 1955, and this time won't be different…
Jennifer Sor
2 mins read
Don't bet on the stock-market rotation as small-caps historically suffer when rates come down, Barclays says
Small-caps typically underperform in the 150 days before and after the first rate cut, Barclays rep…
Filip De Mott
1 min read
Goldman Sachs says the yield curve isn't signalling a recession this time, but a restrictive Fed policy
According to the Wall Street bank, a restrictive Federal Reserve policy is what's driving an invers…
Zahra Tayeb
2 mins read
3 reasons why stocks could move higher in the face of an inverted yield curve, according to Fundstrat's Tom Lee
"The good news is that in 2022, we have not seen the severe tightening of financial conditions that…
Matthew Fox
2 mins read
JPMorgan's quant guru says an inverted yield curve and a hawkish Fed warrant caution from investors, but a recession is still unlikely
"From the point of curve inversion to the actual peak of the equity market, which typically takes p…
Matthew Fox
2 mins read
Recession fears grow stronger as part of the US bond yield curve inverts for the first time since 2006
Many strategists are nervous that the Federal Reserve could abruptly slow the economy by hiking int…
Harry Robertson
2 mins read
An inverted yield curve is likely after the Fed raised interest rates. Here's what that means and why it signals a recession may be imminent.
The difference between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields is just 21 basis points, while 5- and 10-…
Matthew Fox
2 mins read
'Bond King' Jeff Gundlach says the inversion of the yield curve matters, no matter what Wall Street says
Many analysts have said the inversion of the yield curve no longer matters. DoubleLine's Jeff Gundl…
Harry Robertson
3 mins read
The recession alarm is ringing on Wall Street, as the bond market spooks investors
The US government bond market has put investors on "recession watch", according to billionaire fund…
Harry Robertson
2 mins read
The inventor of the market's most famous recession indicator is confident the inverted yield curve is accurately calling a slowdown in 2024
Campbell Harvey's famous inverted yield curve indicator has preceded every recession for the last 5…
Phil Rosen
1 min read
The Treasury yield curve inversion is deepening as a key warning of a coming recession flashes its strongest signal since 2007
A deeper yield curve inversion is an expression of investors' expectations for a recession in the n…
Phil Rosen
3 mins read
The bond market's notorious indicator is correctly signaling a coming recession, and the Fed has made a major mistake, the economist who coined the inverted yield curve says
This recession indicator has successfully called the last eight recessions and it's wrong to assume…
Jennifer Sor
1 min read
A stock market correction is coming as rates, inflation, and valuations darken the outlook for investors, strategist says
The S&P 500 is poised for a 5% drop, according to CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall.
Jennifer Sor
1 min read
Recession is coming and could start this month as 'we are already slowing,' says developer of the yield-curve indicator
Campbell Harvey, who pioneered the use of the bond yield curve as an economic indicator, said a con…
Filip De Mott
2 mins read
Pimco says the yield curve inversion may be a false alarm for recession due to QE and US large-cap stocks are the 'best place to be right now'
A key segment of the yield curve briefly inverted Tuesday for the first time since 2019, with the 2…
Carla Mozée
2 mins read
JPMorgan's bearish quant guru says the meme-stock resurgence is a bad sign for markets
"It is possible, but historically and statistically unlikely, that this time is different," JPMorga…
Matthew Fox
1 min read
A part of the Treasury yield curve has just seen its steepest inversion since 2000 as bond markets flash recession warnings
The gap between the two-year and 30-year notes is the widest in 22 years. An inverted yield curve h…
Brian Evans
1 min read
The Treasury yield curve inversion has long been a reliable recession indicator - and it's been flashing for a month straight
A historical recession indicator has been flashing for a month straight as the US prepares to publi…
Phil Rosen
1 min read
The Fed has done enough economic damage regardless of its next move and a 'self-inflicted' recession looks imminent, yield-curve guru Campbell Harvey says
The US economy is imminently facing a 'self-inflicted' recession, according to the developer of the…