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Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of microfinance and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, <keyword id="46717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndusInd-bank" source="Orion">IndusInd Bank</keyword> set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e., an <keyword id="79363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="npa" source="Orion">NPA</keyword>, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals, i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and Navi Finserv, from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending installments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honor any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its <keyword id="763994" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-NPA" source="Orion">gross NPA</keyword> for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. <keyword id="62152" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IDFC-bank" source="Orion">IDFC Bank</keyword>’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in unsecured loans, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. Kotak Mahindra Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical Bollywood headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist and takes things (and ceiling rates) into their own hands. However, that's a story for another day.

Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<div type="image" title="The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books." agency="ANI" msid="114778648" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of <keyword id="113684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="microfinance" source="Orion">microfinance</keyword> and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, IndusInd Bank set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e. an NPA, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, RBI, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and <keyword id="20117932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="navi-finserv" source="keywords">Navi Finserv</keyword> from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending instalments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honour any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its gross NPA for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. IDFC Bank’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in <keyword id="6051027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Unsecured-loan" source="Orion">unsecured loan</keyword>s, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. <keyword id="6376194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra" source="Orion">Kotak Mahindra</keyword> Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical <keyword id="19897820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bollywood" source="keywords">Bollywood</keyword> headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist. However, that's a story for another day. Do you have a topic in mind you'd want a simpler explanation for, or insights or personal experience to share on personal finance and more? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.

Simply Put: Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Welcome back! Mondays are probably the best day to start eating healthier. (Can't start a diet on a Friday.) And whatever your goals are, protein will play a key role. A nutrition coach breaks down <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/easy-calculate-how-much-protein-coach-olympians-2024-9">how to figure out how much you need</a>.In today's big story, the stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">So now what</a>?What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: Jamie Dimon's retirement <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">doesn't mean his exit from JPMorgan</a>.</li><li>Tech: Roblox investors are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">shrugging off a short-seller's report</a>.</li><li>Business: It's the first day of work for Nike's new CEO. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">Here's what's at stake</a>.</li></ul>But first, time flies when you're making money.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Bullish on the bull market</h2><div type="image" title="Wall Street bull statue" height="4024" width="6048" msid="114217361" hostid="261" sizebytes="1697474"></div>Happy belated birthday to the stock market's bull rally!In case you missed it, Saturday marked two years since stocks bottomed out before going on a run. The Nasdaq 100 (88%), S&amp;P 500 (62%), and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (46%) have posted strong returns in the two years since.But don't worry about missing the celebration, because the party might be going on for a while. Stock market experts who spoke with Business Insider's Matthew Fox <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-bull-rally-anniversary-earnings-interest-rates-sp500-2024-10">don't see things slowing down anytime soon</a>.In fact, the average bull market lasts longer than five years, so we might not even be halfway to the finish line. There's no consensus on exactly how the next few years will shape up, but the experts agree they don't see a market downturn in the near future.Earnings season, which is in full swing this week, will provide more color on where things are headed. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-q3-earnings-preview-investors-themes-ai-interest-rates-2024-10">Expectations are high</a>, and for good reason. The S&amp;P 500 has enjoyed year-over-year earnings growth for four consecutive quarters.<div type="image" title="inflation dollar hovers over groceries" height="893" width="1786" msid="114217363" hostid="261" sizebytes="43390"></div>So, what's the case for the bull rally to continue?Past performance does not guarantee future results, so bull runs' history of sticking around doesn't mean this one will.But the first thing to consider is this bull market's resiliency.The past two years have seen multiple banks fail, a bond-market meltdown, and the unwinding of a trade tied to the Japanese yen that sent stocks tumbling. Interest rates also remained elevated as the economy battled high inflation.Beyond the financial markets, things haven't been much calmer. The war in Ukraine rages on, and there's arguably more violence in the Middle East than there has been in decades.Meanwhile, the run-up to the presidential election has been unprecedented. The sitting president shockingly ended his reelection campaign, and another candidate faced multiple assassination attempts.So yes, we've been through a lot, and stocks keep going up and to the right.While I can't guarantee things will calm down, there are some bright spots. There might not be more rate cuts this year, but the job market is strong and inflation is (mostly) under control. Whether we're in a soft landing or a "no landing," both situations are better than a recession, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-recession-outlook-prediction-labor-market-job-additions-interest-rates-2024-10">which seems unlikely at this point</a>.The actual stock market is healthier, too, as it's no longer reliant on the Magnificent Seven's performance. Instead, it's enjoying growth across different sectors, which gives it more immunity from industry-specific shocks.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>SpaceX's Starship <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/spacex-starship-fifth-flight-test-how-to-watch-2024-10">completes historic 5th flight test</a>.</li><li>'Let chaos reign': <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-players-startups-ai-inference-driving-prices-down-cheap-workload-2024-10">AI computing costs are about to plummet</a>.</li><li>The professor made porn. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/professor-porn-fired-salacious-free-speech-academic-freedom-2024-10">His firing may shape the future of free speech</a>.</li><li>Elon Musk says <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-spacex-launches-california-coastal-commission-2024-10">he will take legal action</a> after California officials cited his politics when rejecting SpaceX launches.</li><li>How Saudi Arabia could create <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-supply-opec-cuts-2024-10">a crisis for Russia's economy</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Photo of Jamie Dimon" height="500" width="1000" msid="114217365" hostid="261" sizebytes="20910"></div><ol><li>You can't get rid of Jamie Dimon that easily. The JPMorgan CEO has hinted at plans to step down in the not-so-distant future. But during the bank's earnings call, he also said there is an "almost nil" chance of him joining the next presidential administration as he plans to stay at JPMorgan "for a long period." <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jamie-dimon-political-ambitions-retirement-plans-jpmorgan-3q-earnings-2024-10">Here's how both things can be true</a>.</li><li>Ken Griffin knows who he's voting for, and he's not happy about it. The billionaire hedge fund manager and Republican megadonor hasn't supported either presidential candidate. The Citadel CEO said he knows who he is voting for, but "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citadel-ken-griffin-election-taxes-florida-2024-10">it's not with a smile on my face</a>."</li><li>BlackRock wants to make alt investments not so alternative. The $11.5 trillion asset manager <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrocks-next-big-bet-private-markets-2024-10">hopes to grow its private markets business</a>, which includes less liquid, more expensive investments with the potential for higher returns. It comes after securing $221 billion in net inflows last quarter, a company record.</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Augustus Doricko sits in a desk with a huge American flag on the back wall." height="3739" width="4985" msid="114217359" hostid="261" sizebytes="612242"></div><ol><li>The 24-year-old wunderkind trying to make water out of thin air. With his new company, cloud-seeding startup Rainmaker, <a target="_blank" href="http://businessinsider.com/rainmaker-augustus-doricko-cloud-seeding-el-segundo-2024-10">Augustus Doricko has launched a God-fearing, cigarette-loving tech hub</a> in El Segundo, California. "Respect to Zuck, but I certainly hope the next cohort of people that build great things do it in the real world," Doricko told BI.</li><li>Roblox took an L and bounced back. The gaming platform's stock tumbled after a prominent short-seller accused it of inflating user numbers and failing to protect children from predators. Investors appear undeterred; after the drop, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/roblox-stock-recovers-after-short-seller-hinderberg-report-2024-10">Roblox's stock rebounded</a>, with Wall Street focused on its growth potential.</li><li>Twelve AI coding startups to watch. AI coding startups are having a moment as VCs look to invest in tools that automate the boring parts of coding and let developers focus on more creative tasks. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-code-startups-that-have-raised-the-most-vcs-a16z-2024-10">These 12 startups have attracted funding</a> from VCs like a16z and Menlo Ventures.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="Photo illustration of expensive Erewhon groceries, receipt, shopping cart, and payment system" height="1000" width="2000" msid="114217368" hostid="261" sizebytes="117578"></div><ol><li>I've been a very brave Gen Zer. I'd like a treat. Inflation's got nothing on Gen Z's love of bougie snacks: Young people splurge on expensive groceries more than any other generation. The reason? <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-loves-expensive-groceries-snacks-erewhon-whole-foods-2024-10">Consuming health-conscious food is a show of economic power</a> — and everything else is too expensive.</li><li>Office vacancy may deliver some housing relief. The office sector will experience a wave of distress in coming years, real estate experts told BI. That might be good news for housing supply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-office-outlook-fire-sales-apartment-conversions-housing-2024-10">as former offices get converted to apartments</a>.</li><li>It's Elliott Hill's first day as Nike's CEO. Can he just do it? Nike released its first-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings report on October 1, and revenue declined 10% from the previous year to $11.6 billion. Now, it's up to Hill <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nike-ceo-elliott-hill-takes-over-faces-challenges-2024-10">to lead a full-scale comeback for the brand</a>.</li></ol><h2 id="1ad7b482-3f4b-44b4-81b6-a864aa386478">In other news</h2><ul><li>How rich Americans can save on taxes by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/upstream-planning-transfers-capital-gains-tax-stock-real-estate-2024-10">giving stock and real estate to their parents</a>.</li><li>Tesla investors don't seem to trust Elon Musk like they used to. <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-tesla-twitter-wall-street-disappointment-self-driving-taxi-2024-10">Is that because of Twitter</a>?</li><li>Here's how natural disasters are shaping the buy-versus-rent decision <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-natural-disasters-buy-rent-florida-climate-change-risks-2024-10">in vulnerable states like Florida</a>.</li><li>Warren Buffett's company website looks like a relic from the 1990s — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-website-homepage-culture-values-billionaires-links-2024-10">but that's on purpose</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>It's Columbus Day in the US. In some states, like New York, it's a day to celebrate Italian American culture and history.</li><li>It's also Indigenous People's Day, which some states recognize instead of, or in addition to, Columbus Day. Thirty-five states and the District of Columbia mark this holiday.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.

The stock market has officially enjoyed a bull rally for over two years. So now what?

Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of bank deposits in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialization of household savings in the country, or the rising preference of Indians towards mutual funds and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian equity markets through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by <keyword id="20250971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="franklin-templeton" source="keywords">Franklin Templeton</keyword>, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are <keyword id="4000333" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="household-deposits" source="Orion">household deposits</keyword> really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian <keyword id="20319599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="households" source="keywords">households</keyword> in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and savings account deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (<keyword id="19942037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-board-of-direct-taxes" source="keywords">Central Board of Direct Taxes</keyword>) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="securities-transaction-tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword> (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell equity mutual funds, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by equities can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in deposit growth we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next <keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="keywords">MPC</keyword> (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day.

A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

I'm not saying that I am the next <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/jim-cramer-sees-any-weakness-in-nvidia-stock-as-chance-to-buy-it-1031303709">Jim Cramer</a>, but I had a point when I wrote just a few weeks ago that former President <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-stock-crash-djt-truth-social-donald-trump-retail-2024-4">Donald Trump's social-media company</a> was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-media-stock-price-crash-spac-djt-truth-social-2024-4?mrfhud=true">probably not going to be an awesome stock pick</a>. Was this <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/barry-diller-trump-media-truth-social-scam-comments-2024-4">completely foreseeable</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/why-trump-media-stock-could-be-the-most-obvious-short-idea-in-the-market-1033240349">deeply obvious</a>? Absolutely.<keyword id="7020134" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trump-media" source="Orion">Trump Media</keyword> &amp; Technology Group, which owns the conservative Twitter clone Truth Social, went public via SPAC in late March. (For those not familiar, a SPAC, or special-purpose acquisition company, is a shell company that goes public with the intention of buying an actual company later. In the Trump case, the shell company Digital World Acquisition purchased TMTG.) When the merger was completed, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meme-stocks-mania-donald-trump-tmtg-truth-social-hasbro-paramount-2024-3">the stock — which trades under the ticker DJT — popped</a> to over $70 a share. TMTG's market cap topped $9 billion, and the former president's net worth, on paper, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-wealth-tmtg-dwac-billionaires-stock-court-judgment-rich-list-2024-3">jumped to $7 billion</a>.And then, <keyword id="5173883" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="djt" source="Orion">DJT</keyword> popped again, but this time in the bad, bubble-bursting way. Its price <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-shares-donald-trump-media-plunged-18-financial-liabilities-tmtg-2024-4">fell</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-stock-price-djt-market-cap-5b-truth-social-2024-4">then it fell again</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-stock-price-drop-truth-social-meme-cash-windfall-2024-4?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">then it fell some more</a>. The stock staged a bit of a rally at the end of last week, but it's still well off of its March highs. As of the end of trading on Friday, TMTG was trading at $36.38 down 54% from its peak and 41% since I wrote about it three weeks ago. Correspondingly, the former president's related wealth gains <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-media-stock-freefall-lost-ex-president-billions-2024-4">have come back down to earth</a>. People on Truth Social <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-stock-crash-djt-truth-social-donald-trump-retail-2024-4">feel pretty bad</a> about it. Short sellers, if I had to guess, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-media-short-interest-meme-stock-gamestop-2024-3">feel pretty good</a>, even if <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-djt-stock-short-selling-protection-truth-social-shares-2024-4">Trump's company is trying to prevent them</a> from betting against it. Anyone investing in TMTG is in for a bumpy ride.While Trump is a political figure, Trump Media's stock price is not really a political story. Sure, there are some fervent followers who believe that buying the stock is akin to supporting the Republican presidential candidate. More broadly, though, TMTG's fall from grace is more of a business story with a hint of cultural weight that let it achieve some meme-stock-like status.The thing about TMTG is that it is not a good business. Its total revenue was $4.1 million in 2023, which is a little more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-it-costs-to-open-a-chick-fil-a-2016-1">than what a single McDonald's franchise</a> makes in a year, and it lost $58 million the same year. When the stock was near its highs, it was trading at something like 2,000 times the company's annual revenue. That is a lot. Nvidia, the high-flying vanguard of the artificial-intelligence revolution and one of the hottest stocks this year, is trading at about 35 times its revenue.Besides required financial information, Trump's media outfit won't disclose central data points that would give a better picture of how well it is — or, likely, isn't — doing. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-media-truth-social-users-disclose-financials-djt-2024-4">As my colleague Peter Kafka has pointed out</a>, TMTG refuses to tell investors how many people are signing up for Truth Social, whether they're sticking with the platform, or what's happening in ad sales. In regulatory filings, the company says it "believes that adhering to traditional key performance indicators, such as signups, average revenue per user, ad impressions and pricing, or active user accounts including monthly and daily active users, could potentially divert its focus from strategic evaluation with respect to the progress and growth of its business." In other words, it doesn't think publicly disclosing how things are going will be good for its business prospects, which, I mean, tracks to the extent that the truth is probably bad. (To be clear, other publicly traded social-media companies, such as Reddit and Meta, do not keep a lot of this kind of information under wraps.)For all the gloominess now, Trump's media company says it has bigger and brighter days ahead. On Tuesday, TMTG <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/truth-social-to-launch-streaming-platform-1033252830">announced</a> that it planned to launch a streaming-TV platform where creators who can't find an audience for "unjust" reasons "won't be cancelled." The same day, its stock price fell by 14%, though the next day it bounced.TMTG isn't going under tomorrow. Its CEO, <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/5-things-you-might-not-know-about-devin-nunes-ceo-of-trump-media-technology-group-1031036814">Devin Nunes</a> — yes, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/judge-dismisses-devin-nunes-cow-lawsuit-against-twitter-parody-accounts-2020-6">that Devin Nunes</a>, the former US representative from California — has said it has millions of dollars in the bank thanks to the boost from going public. He's also trying to push back against short sellers in an attempt to keep those betting against the company at bay.All in all, for shareholders, this is not a fun roller-coaster ride. The stock is on a steady downward trajectory, and things aren't looking good. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-tmtg-meme-stock-crash-truth-social-election-wealth-2024-4">company has filed plans to issue more shares</a>, which would raise even more cash for operations but dilute the value for current shareholders. Trump himself, who owns more than half of the company's shares, is subject to a lockup period that prevents him from selling those shares for six months. This is pretty standard practice for SPACs to prevent pump-and-dumps. The board could speed that up and let him and other insiders sell earlier, which would give the former president a quick cash injection but almost certainly depress the stock's price more. Why hold on to the stock when even its namesake is giving it up? So DJT will likely circle the drain even faster once major shareholders are allowed to sell, and it's not really clear how the company plans to turn that around. Trump, for his part, has some bigger fish to fry, like competing in an election and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-court-trial-falling-asleep-stay-awake-i-relate-2024-4">hanging out in court</a>.That TMTG's stock price has fallen isn't surprising. It's not a successful business, and it's not clear how many people are ever going to want to hang out on Truth Social, let alone how many businesses would want to advertise there. The speed of the stock's plunge, however, is a bit of a shock. It wasn't a given that the gravity of reality would be such a strong, immediate force. But for now, the Trump Media &amp; Technology Group illusion seems to be coming undone.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/emily-stewart">Emily Stewart</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.

You Searched For "yes bank stocks" and got 6 results

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Trump's stock bust came even quicker than I expected

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