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Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of microfinance and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, <keyword id="46717" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IndusInd-bank" source="Orion">IndusInd Bank</keyword> set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e., an <keyword id="79363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="npa" source="Orion">NPA</keyword>, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals, i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="Orion">RBI</keyword>, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and Navi Finserv, from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending installments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honor any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its <keyword id="763994" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Gross-NPA" source="Orion">gross NPA</keyword> for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. <keyword id="62152" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="IDFC-bank" source="Orion">IDFC Bank</keyword>’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in unsecured loans, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. Kotak Mahindra Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical Bollywood headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist and takes things (and ceiling rates) into their own hands. However, that's a story for another day.

Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

A recent report by Axis AMC shed light on the burgeoning Indian mutual fund industry. Since March 2021, the MF industry has grown at a CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) of 23.65%, touching an AUM (asset under management) of Rs 67.25 lakh crore in October 2024. <keyword id="20300870" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Equity-Mutual-Funds" source="keywords">Equity mutual funds</keyword>, which garnered Rs 41,886.69 crore during the month, saw a 58.96% YoY growth. The biggest contributor to the equity segment was sectoral funds, which captured 29.3% of net equity sales in October 2024. In all, they brought in Rs 12,278.78 crore during October 2024. The AUM of <keyword id="20890471" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hybrid-Funds" source="keywords">hybrid funds</keyword> also stood at Rs 9.24 lakh crore during the month, registering an annual growth of 47.8% and inflows worth Rs 16,863.30 crore during October 2024. Amidst this, the arbitrage funds led in net sales, capturing 3.61% of their AUM with monthly inflows worth Rs 7,181.70 crores. There and more people are entering the Indian markets, as is evident in the growing SIP corpus (Systematic Investment Plans), which saw contributions worth Rs 25,323 crore in October 2024, a 54.7% year-over-year growth. In October 2024, about 63,69,919 new SIPs were registered, taking the number of SIP accounts to a record high of 10,12,34,212 The growth in equity investments was largely led by retail investors and HNIs (high-net-worth individuals). Since March 2021, the retail segment in mutual funds has seen a 31.2% CAGR, while banks and foreign investors have recorded a CAGR of 31.8% during the same period. Corporations were the biggest contributors to debt mutual funds. Notably, the AUM of debt funds grew 14.8% over the previous year to stand at Rs 10,65,037 crore as of October 2024. The category saw net sales worth Rs 47,699 crore last month. Also testimony to the growing interest of investors in mutual funds were the figures of <keyword id="23958398" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Passive-Mutual-Funds" source="keywords">passive mutual funds</keyword>, which recorded net sales worth Rs 8,025 crore during the month. Out of this, just index funds observed net sales of Rs 7,931 crore in the previous month. AUM from the top 30 Indian cities grew at 22.6% CAGR, whereas other cities grew at 27.8% CAGR since March 2021. FY25 also seemed to be the year where NFOs received an enthusiastic response from investors. So far, a total of 124 NFO schemes have managed to collect a total of over Rs 77,932 crore.

Mutual funds in spotlight: Industry grew at 23.65% CAGR since March 2021

Domestic <keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">gold prices</keyword> have risen by 10% on a year-to-date basis on the back of the strength in global gold prices, which have surged by 18% year-to-date, driven by robust <keyword id="19894998" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-bank" source="keywords">central bank</keyword> purchases, heightened geopolitical risks, and growing expectations of a monetary policy pivot from the <keyword id="19901377" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="us-federal-reserve" source="keywords">US Federal Reserve</keyword>, according to the <keyword id="20195223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Gold-Council" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Gold Council" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="World Gold Council">World Gold Council</keyword>. The reduction in <keyword id="20069572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="import-duty" source="keywords">import duty</keyword> has ignited a resurgence in gold demand across <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. Reports from the recently concluded India International Jewellery Show indicate a substantial increase in order bookings from retailers, particularly in preparation for the upcoming festive and wedding season. Manufacturers have noted that in some cases, orders have reached levels not seen in several years, underscoring the strong buying interest among <keyword id="21595593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="jewellery-retailers" source="keywords">jewellery retailers</keyword> and consumers alike. The trend of bar and coin buying has also remained robust, with both consumers and jewellers capitalizing on the more attractive prices to stock up for future manufacturing needs. Historical analysis suggests that Indian consumer demand, encompassing jewellery and bar and coin demand, could see an additional 50 tonnes or more in the second half of 2024. This potential increase is fueled by a combination of an initial boost in consumer appetite due to the more attractive prices and a longer-term alignment of local prices with international rates. In a notable shift, domestic gold prices, which had been trading at a discount to international prices for five consecutive months, have now started trading at a premium following the <keyword id="19908389" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Budget" source="keywords">Union Budget</keyword> announcement. The discount had widened significantly in July, reaching a peak of around $80 per ounce in the third week of the month, driven by subdued demand and an increased supply of gold through various preferential trade agreements and unofficial channels. However, wholesalers who had inventory purchased under the old customs duty regime began selling gold at a premium to the landed cost to mitigate their losses, further supported by increased consumer demand. While the premiums have moderated recently, from $28 per ounce to around USD 5 per ounce, this shift highlights the changing market sentiment and the impact of rising international gold prices and potential inventory valuation adjustments. The changes introduced in the Union Budget, including a reduction in the long-term investment holding period and a lower tax rate, have made gold ETFs a more attractive investment option. Data from the Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI) reveals that net inflows into gold ETFs in July amounted to Rs 13.4 billion (approximately USD 160 million), marking the highest monthly inflows since February 2020 and an 84% increase compared to June 2024. Despite these inflows, the total assets under management (AUM) for Indian gold ETFs grew marginally by 0.3% from the previous month, reaching Rs 345 billion ($4.1 billion). This modest increase can be attributed to the 8 % fall in domestic gold prices following the import duty reduction. Year-to-date, net inflows into Indian gold ETFs have totalled Rs 45 billion ($543 million), with total AUMs rising by 48 % from a year ago. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) has continued its gold purchasing trend, although at a slower pace following a significant increase in June, when purchases reached 9.3 tonnes--the highest monthly total in nearly two years. Year-to-date, the RBI's gold acquisitions have totaled 44.3 tonnes, surpassing the total purchases of the past two years combined. The RBI's gold reserves have now reached a record 849 tonnes, representing 8.8% of total foreign reserves, compared to 7.5 % a year ago. In July, gold imports remained steady at $3.1 billion, maintaining the stable trend observed over the previous three months. Between April and July, imports averaged $3.2 billion, with volumes ranging between 43 and 47 tonnes during this period. The gold import bill for July 2024 was 11 % lower than the previous year, with an estimated 26% decrease in volume terms, around 47 tonnes. Despite a surge in international gold prices, domestic gold prices in India have experienced a notable decline, primarily due to the 9 % reduction in import duty announced in the Union Budget 2024-25. This policy change has led to a 6% decrease in the landed cost of gold, marking a shift in the domestic gold market dynamics.

Domestic gold prices surge 10% amid global price rally, central bank buying: World Gold Council

<div type="image" title="The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books." agency="ANI" msid="114778648" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;The RBI has cracked the regulatory whip on NBFCs and banks, who&amp;#39;ve been pushing microfinance and unsecured loans aggressively to grow their loan books.&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> Imagine this. You have a younger sibling you’re mighty envious of. And why not? Unlike you, they seem to enjoy all the freedom and money in the world. They party like there’s no tomorrow, and here you are, stuck in a boring, ultra-disciplined but responsible routine that feels completely devoid of any independence, and mostly, funds. But of late, things are changing. This sibling is in massive trouble and just cannot escape the parent’s wrath anymore. Long story short, the party is over, and it is time to go back home. The rising defaults on this sibling’s part have now begun pulling the entire house down, thereby attracting the regulator’s ire. <h2>The Wild West of <keyword id="113684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="microfinance" source="Orion">microfinance</keyword> and unsecured loans</h2>It's hard to ignore the issues with microfinance and unsecured loans in India. Many saw them as a small gamble and ignored the rising defaults much like the younger siblings’ tantrums, and now they find themselves in hot waters. The skyrocketing instances of non-payments aren't a micro-issue anymore and are threatening the stability of the entire banking system. In the quarter ended September 30, 2024, 5 of India’s 8 largest private sector <keyword id="19934118" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="banks" source="keywords">banks</keyword> reported a steep rise in their bad loan book, mostly thanks to microfinance loans. Some banks, in a bid to strengthen their fortress against these <keyword id="142154" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="bad-loans" source="Orion">bad loans</keyword>, have significantly upped their provisions. For instance, IndusInd Bank set aside Rs 525 crore during July and September 2024 to battle the menace of defaults on microfinance loans, which make up about 9% of its total loan book. See, banks rely heavily on their interest income, which they earn from advancing loans. Any loan where the borrower has not paid interest to the bank or defaulted for 90 days or more becomes bad, i.e. an NPA, or non-performing asset for the bank. And who likes things going bad? Simply put, there has been a steep rise in three areas, much to the dislike of banks and MFIs (micro-finance institutions). But hey, it's mostly their doing! <ol><li>GNPA ratio (gross net performing assets): The quantum of non-performing assets a bank has in proportion to its total assets.</li><li>Provision: The amount banks set aside to take care of such NPAs.</li><li>Slippage ratio: The rate at which good girls go bad, or the speed at which good loans turn into NPAs</li></ol>But how are these plaguing the Indian banking sector? And what does the road ahead look like? We decode it for you. <h2> Microfinance: A not-so-micro-menace</h2>Microfinance loans were initially brought forth for low-income households and individuals i.e. for those who might not generally have access to traditional ways of credit, like bank loans and more. They don’t require collateral or an asset to be pledged in lieu of the loan, making it a tad bit easier for borrowers. As of June 2024, the amount of outstanding loans in the microfinance industry stood at a staggering Rs 4,20,256 crore. Of this, NBFC-MFIs accounted for 40% and banks made for 33% of these. In 2022, RBI, in a bid to inspire some competition in this space, did something radical-they did away with the ceiling on how much interest MFIs could charge their customers. Previously, MFIs could add up to 12% to their cost of acquiring funds to determine the final interest rate chargeable to the consumer. So, assuming that Bank A incurs a 5% cost to acquire funds for further loaning, A could charge up to 17% interest from the end consumer. So, interest rates were in the hands of MFIs, and boy, did they have a gala time with it. Instead of spurring some healthy competition, as RBI expected, MFIs and banks went rogue and all guns blazing, competing for the title of “Who will charge the highest interest?” Recently, RBI banned 4 microfinance institutions (MFIs), namely Asirvad Micro Finance Limited, Arohan Financial Services Limited, DMI Finance Private Limited, and <keyword id="20117932" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="navi-finserv" source="keywords">Navi Finserv</keyword> from disbursing loans effective October 21, 2024. Why? Because they were charging 14% extra interest over their original cost of funds. To maintain their loan books (and pockets), banks and NBFCs resorted to shady practices like netting off loans, which RBI has now advised MFIs against. Here, lenders allow borrowers to settle a previous outstanding loan by issuing them a new loan! As crazy as it sounds, it helped banks to report less of their total assets as NPAs, since the new credit would cover pending instalments of the borrower’s previous loan. Then there was the issue of borrowers overleveraging, i.e. taking multiple loans using different IDs from various lenders and then failing to honour any of them. The consequence? Banks and NBFCs end up with massive NPAs. Data from credit bureaus suggests that over the last quarter, there was a 17.2% rise in the number of borrowers who had 5 or more active loans at the same time. <h2>Growth &gt; Caution</h2>It's an age-old tale unfolding yet again in India’s banking sector- Icarus flew too close to the sun and eventually, fell to its death. Between April and June 2024, NBFCs microfinance portfolio jumped by 2.7%. If you see this in terms of loan sources, microfinance loans issued by banks grew by 11.2% in Q1FY25. But the same portfolio in NBFCs swelled by almost double-23.9%. While most of these loans had an average ticket size between Rs 30,000-50,000, there was a sharp spike in the number of loans that had a ticket size of Rs 80,000 or more. Data suggests that as of March 2024, more than 12% of all microfinance borrowers had over 4 or more active loans. In dating parlance, this is a classic case of borrowers going polyamorous, minus the honesty and transparency. Not the best of situations, you'd agree! <h2>Will banks and NBFCs stand up to this stress?</h2>If their results for Q2FY25 are to be believed, NBFCs are not handling the pressure all that well. Or even slightly well. Only a few banks like Bank of Baroda (BoB), ICICI, and Indian Bank were up for the battle, even witnessing a decline in their loan delinquencies. Some others, like IndusInd Bank, saw their stock dip by a massive 16.2% over the last 5 days. Its slippages in the previous quarter burgeoned from Rs 15.3 billion in Q1FY25 to Rs 17.9 billion in Q2. As a result, the bank pushed a staggeringly high amount of money to create an NPA cushion for itself. While its management has highlighted its preference for secured lending, that was hardly reflected in its actions during the quarter, where growth in unsecured personal loans remained exceptionally high at over 7% on a QoQ basis. Turns out, only 44% of customers in IndusInd Banks’ microfinance loan portfolio were exclusive to it. The rest 47% were, you guessed it right-polyamorous! 27% had borrowed from another lender as well, apart from IndusInd Bank, while 20% were those who had outstanding loans with two other lenders, apart from IndusInd Bank. IndusInd Bank’s credit card segment did not miss the NPA bus and accounted for 7-8% of its GNPAs. Canara Bank’s total slippages during the previous quarter jumped to Rs 11.1 billion, up by 24.7% QoQ, and making up for 3.6% of its total loans. As for Bandhan Bank, its gross NPA for Q2FY25 inched up on a QoQ basis, up from 4.23% in Q1, to 4.68% in the second quarter. IDFC Bank’s heavy provisioning for its NPAs marred its profits significantly, causing its PAT (profit after tax) to dip by 73% on a YoY basis. Data from ICRA Analytics suggest that the AUM (asset under management) growth in microfinance loans and unsecured (personal and business) loans by the NBFCs will moderate to 10-12% and 19-21%, respectively, in FY2025 compared to 30% and 38%, in FY2024. Says A M Karthik, Senior Vice President &amp; Co-Group Head, Financial Sector Ratings, ICRA, “As bank funds constitute a larger share in the overall funding of NBFCs, a slower credit flow from banks to the NBFCs will compress their AUM growth. The NBFCs in unsecured and digital lending businesses shall face a higher squeeze in funding compared to others, and the unsecured lending space will continue to be a source of stress in the near term.” There has been uninhibited growth in <keyword id="6051027" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Unsecured-loan" source="Orion">unsecured loan</keyword>s, apart from just the microfinance segment. For instance, Axis Bank’s gross slippages jumped by Rs 4,443 crore, largely thanks to its unsecured business. The same is the case with Yes Bank, which saw 35–40% of its retail slippages emerging from the unsecured loan portfolio. <keyword id="6376194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra" source="Orion">Kotak Mahindra</keyword> Bank was also quick to follow Yes Bank’s suit, with around 35%-40% of its slippages coming from credit cards. <h2>How is the road ahead?</h2>While RBI has just cracked its whip and served a warning at the moment, experts at Morgan Stanley believe that more changes (read regulatory lashes) are underway. Moreover, with both festive and wedding seasons underway in our country, unsecured lending might pick up momentum, much to the disdain of the calibrated approach banks have been taking towards it so far. But if the situation doesn't improve, RBI will not waste any time in becoming the typical tyrannical <keyword id="19897820" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bollywood" source="keywords">Bollywood</keyword> headmaster who runs his dominion with an iron fist. However, that's a story for another day. Do you have a topic in mind you'd want a simpler explanation for, or insights or personal experience to share on personal finance and more? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.

Simply Put: Is the lending party over? The dangerous tango of Indian banks with microfinance and unsecured loans

<keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> are navigating choppy waters as global economic shifts, from rate cuts to evolving political climates, create new pressure points across the financial landscape, according to a recent report by ANI attributed originally to the Union Bank of India. The domestic stock and bond markets showed signs of strain, with <keyword id="19910363" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bond-yields" source="keywords">bond yields</keyword> witnessing slight adjustments. India’s 10-year government bond yield dipped to 6.82%, a decrease from the previous session, reflecting cautious investor sentiment as the markets react to shifting global indicators. Meanwhile, the 5-year bond yield remained steady at 6.76%, a signal of lingering hesitation amid economic unpredictability. In the currency market, the rupee faced a notable decline, ending the day at ₹84.3725 against the US dollar, slipping from its prior close of ₹84.2800. Market analysts point to significant capital outflows as a key factor, with investors moving funds to perceived safer assets overseas. This migration has weighed heavily on the rupee, underlining the currency’s vulnerability in an environment of global economic flux. India’s stock market bore the brunt of this volatility, with key indices falling over 1%, effectively erasing the gains of a previous rally. This abrupt drop reportedly reflects renewed investor anxiety, largely triggered by the recent <keyword id="20189882" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-presidential-election" source="keywords">US presidential election</keyword> results. Experts suggest that the election has introduced a fresh layer of uncertainty, not only for the US economy but for global markets, impacting everything from policy decisions to investor sentiment. Analysts are also keeping a close eye on upcoming decisions by central banks, which will likely shape the path forward for the Indian equities market. Commodities showed contrasting trends, with Brent crude prices falling on lower demand expectations, as economic indicators point toward cautious spending globally. Gold, on the other hand, experienced a modest rise as investors sought refuge in safe-haven assets, highlighting a shift towards risk aversion among market participants. Globally, major central banks made coordinated efforts to sustain economic growth, with the Bank of England (BoE) announcing a 25 basis-point cut, lowering its benchmark rate to 4.75%. The BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) largely backed this move to counter inflation, which has been declining, albeit gradually. Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Reserve mirrored this action with its own 25 basis-point cut, a sign of confidence in the ongoing economic recovery. Both rate cuts, though modest, signal a global trend towards caution as economies work to balance growth with stability. In Asia, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) maintained its supportive stance. Governor Pan Gongsheng sought to reassure foreign investors by reaffirming the PBoC’s commitment to growth-oriented policies. Pan emphasized enhanced communication and pledged to open China’s financial services sector further, aiming to attract more international participants. Europe, meanwhile, faced mixed economic signals. Germany reported a steep 2.5% drop in industrial production in September, signalling a slowdown in manufacturing, while the Eurozone saw a mild 0.5% rise in retail sales, reflecting cautious consumer optimism in the region. Adding another layer to the global economic landscape, the European Union’s Climate Change Service warned that 2024 could be the hottest year on record, underscoring urgent climate challenges just as the UN COP29 climate summit approaches. The summit, set to take place in Azerbaijan, aims to rally increased funding for climate action, though tempered expectations linger in light of recent US political shifts. On the domestic front, Niti Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam spoke about India’s potential role in pivotal global trade agreements, specifically the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). These partnerships, Subrahmanyam suggested, could bolster India’s Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSME) sector, which currently accounts for 40% of India’s exports, offering a strategic advantage for Indian trade in an interconnected world. As the Indian markets digest these developments, experts believe continued volatility could be the theme for the coming months. (with ANI inputs)

Indian markets under pressure as global rate cuts stir uncertainty, new report says

<ul><li>High vegetable inflation, driven by hardening onion prices, has kept food inflation at 8.66% in February.</li><li>With low reservoir levels in many states, food inflation in FY25 is expected to be driven by monsoons, say experts.</li><li>The RBI is focused on bringing inflation below 4% and might continue the status quo for a longer time now, believe experts. </li></ul>In February, retail inflation came in on expected lines at 5.09%. However, high vegetable inflation, driven by hardening onion prices has kept food inflation up at 8.66%. Experts now believe that the <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reserve-bank-of-india" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (RBI) which has been focussed on bringing inflation to 4%, will maintain the status quo in the upcoming credit policy. “We expect inflation to average 4.8% in FY25. Given that the RBI Governor has been highlighting the aim of getting inflation to 4% on a durable basis, the policy rates are likely to be kept on hold in the upcoming policy meeting, with no change in stance,” said <keyword id="20938330" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rajni-sinha" source="keywords">Rajni Sinha</keyword>, chief economist, CareEdge Ratings. Regulator to continue cautious stance Despite expectations from the market, the RBI has maintained its ‘withdrawal of accommodation’ stance in the last policy meeting in February. This policy, aiming to curtail inflation further, entails a reduction of easy money supply in the system, which started during the initial COVID-19 phase. RBI governor <keyword id="19913110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="keywords">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> had also earlier spoken about the risk of food inflation spilling into broader inflation. “We retain our view that RBI will remain cautious on volatile food inflation trajectory and hence prefer to remain in pause mode on rates till August policy. However, with RBI already having continuously fine-tuning liquidity and easing overnight rates closer to the repo rate, we see room for a shift in stance in the June policy,” said <keyword id="20169699" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="upasna-bhardwaj" source="keywords">Upasna Bhardwaj</keyword>, chief economist at <keyword id="19938495" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kotak-mahindra-bank" source="keywords">Kotak Mahindra Bank</keyword>. Agrees Akhil Mittal, Senior Fund Manager-Fixed Income, <keyword id="20929846" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tata-asset-management" source="keywords">Tata Asset Management</keyword>, “We anticipate the regulator to maintain a cautious stance. We think RBI would rather continue with stability priority and continue maintaining the 4% inflation target as sacrosanct, and hence we do not see a premature easing from RBI.” Vegetable inflation zooms, pulses in a tough zone Vegetable inflation came in high at 30.3% in February, and experts believe that pricey onions will keep food inflation elevated. Inflation in pulses, spices and eggs also saw double-digit inflation. Edible oils and fats have brought down inflation to an extent with negative growth. The food basket has nearly 50% weightage in the consumer price inflation (CPI) data. “Inflation is purely a food inflation-driven phenomenon which will continue to pressurise inflation in the coming months. Besides, horticulture output this year is expected to be lower than last year. Cereals, eggs, sugar, spices and pulses are the other pain points here,” comments <keyword id="20102121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="madan-sabnavis" source="keywords">Madan Sabnavis</keyword>, chief economist at Bank of Baroda. The outlook for food prices is also bleak with lower reservoir levels and their impact on agricultural output. “The ongoing high inflation in specific food categories, including cereals, pulses, spices, and vegetables pose a risk of potentially broadening price pressures and de-anchoring inflationary expectations. Reservoir levels, particularly in eastern and southern India, persist at lower levels. Consequently, the forthcoming monsoon in FY25 holds significant importance for the trajectory of food inflation,” said Sinha. Core inflation has however remained soft, staying below the 4% threshold for three consecutive months. Rural inflation came in higher at 5.3%, while urban inflation is at 4.8% — mostly due to higher weightage of food products in the former index. Twelve of India’s 22 states saw inflation of above 5.1%. Odisha had the highest at 7.6%, while Delhi saw the lowest at 5.3%.

RBI likely to maintain status quo after food inflation keeps Feb print high, say experts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>American consumers and businesses are having a hard time paying off credit card, auto, and commercial real estate debt.</li><li>US banks have increased their reserves in part to prepare for potential loan losses.</li></ul>US banks are having a harder time <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/credit-score/what-is-debt-collection">collecting debts</a>, so they're taking precautions.According to Federal Reserve data, the past-due debt share for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/paid-off-credit-card-debt-solid-plan-2024-6">credit card</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/consumer-credit-card-debt-auto-loans-delinquency-economic-outlook-bofa-2024-9">auto</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-debt-property-losses-mortgage-interest-rates-prices-2024-7">commercial real estate</a> has recently risen to above pre-pandemic levels. The share of debt banks have written off as a loss because they couldn't collect it has also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/chargeoff/chgallsa.htm">ticked up</a>, with the charge-off rate for two of these three loan types the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCCACBS">highest</a> they've been in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CORCREXFACBS">more than a decade</a>.Business Insider spoke to industry insiders who said this has prompted a response from big banks anticipating a continued increase in bad loans. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/largest-banks-us-list">US banks</a> have increased their reserves in recent years, effectively setting aside cash to cover potential loan losses.While it's commonplace for banks to increase their reserves as loan levels rise over time, reserves have started gradually making up a bigger share of total loans at firms like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wellsfargo.com/assets/pdf/about/investor-relations/earnings/third-quarter-2024-earnings.pdf">Wells Fargo</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net/_9d388ee07cccbcc3c8dc5bafe2ea4aff/bankofamerica/db/775/10116/webcast_transcript/2024-10-15+BAC+3Q+Earnings+Call_ADA.pdf">Bank of America</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.jpmorganchase.com/content/dam/jpmc/jpmorgan-chase-and-co/investor-relations/documents/quarterly-earnings/2024/3rd-quarter/6bca0e4a-703c-4fff-8e70-f026f015fee5.pdf">JPMorgan</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.citigroup.com/rcs/citigpa/storage/public/Earnings/Q32024/3Q24-SUPP-ForWeb.pdf">Citigroup</a>. Since June 2022, Wells Fargo's and Bank of America's reserves have risen by about $1.8 billion and $2.4 billion respectively. Still, for context, these firms' cash coffers are still considerably lighter than they were during the Great Recession.<h2 id="3bd35426-2903-4a17-860b-981ba0e86427">America's 3 debt pain points</h2>Each month, the New York Fed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/sce#/debtexp-1">asks</a> roughly 1,300 Americans to estimate the chance they'll be unable to make a minimum debt payment over the next three months. Aside from the pandemic, Americans haven't been this pessimistic since 2017.Consumers' struggles to repay credit card and auto debt suggest that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">inflation</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-cuts-interest-rates-how-much-september-fomc-powell-inflation-2024-9">interest rates</a>, while moderating in recent months, are still taking a toll on their finances. Additionally, businesses' struggles to pack back commercial real estate debt show that factors like elevated interest rates and the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/office-market-interest-rates-commercial-real-estate-federal-reserve-pandemic-2024-9">remote work revolution</a> are still having lingering effects.Here's a closer look at each of the three debt categories:<h3 id="df61242d-618b-4bfb-824d-874b5a53ce4d">Credit card debt</h3>As of the second quarter of this year, more than <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DRCCLACBS">3%</a> of all credit card accounts in the US had past-due balances — up from less than 2% in 2021.The steady uptick in past-due credit card debt over such a short period of time provides some cause for concern, Bruce McClary, a nonprofit credit counselor and senior vice president at the National Foundation for Credit Counseling, told BI."What we are seeing is that people are struggling to repay debt while continuing to use up what is left of their available credit — forcing more people to start falling behind on their payments and into the hands of debt collectors," he said.David Schiff, senior managing director at FTI, told BI that prolonged debt-repayment problems will eventually present a bigger risk to the economy.The increase in reserves raises "real concerns about the softness of certain assets classes — specifically ongoing uncertainty around the commercial real estate market, and increasing worry about the number of revolving credit card customers and their rapidly growing balances," Schiff told BI.<h3 id="2c271636-eeeb-43a1-a28b-b69f0c808b83">Auto debt</h3>A Federal Reserve <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/rising-auto-loan-delinquencies-and-high-monthly-payments-20240926.html">report</a> published on September 26 found that auto loan delinquency rates rose "substantially" above pre-pandemic levels by the end of 2023, driven in large part by growth in monthly debt payments.In fact, a growing number of Americans owe more than their cars are worth, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=76e351eb917843c15c21c91acd7d8e92304c81583e3e5bb129c38093d6e7aff2&amp;postID=67114ad8434c477c23344eb6&amp;postSlug=big-banks-preparing-loan-loss-credit-card-auto-debt-cre-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.edmunds.com%2Findustry%2Fpress%2Fnegative-equity-on-the-rise-the-average-amount-owed-on-upside-down-car-loans-hit-an-all-time-high-in-q3-2024-according-to-edmunds.html%3Futm_source%3Dsubstack%26utm_medium%3Demail">report</a> published on October 15 by the automotive website Edmunds. Stephen Biggar, director of financial services research at Argus Research, told Business Insider that if a bank is forced to repossess such a vehicle, the car's value wouldn't even cover the loan, resulting in losses to the bank. He said that the uptick in auto delinquencies is "not a spike, but is kind of a concern about what goes on from here."<h3 id="108a8464-8ec8-4eb3-8b19-f2eb7af18b2d">Commercial real estate</h3>Another problem for banks is that some businesses with commercial real estate loans are struggling to repay them. Biggar said some of this is tied to high vacancy rates among offices. While many companies have called employees back to the office since the height of the pandemic, office vacancy rates still <a target="_blank" href="https://www.axios.com/2024/07/09/office-vacancy-rate-record-high">rose</a> to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-outlook-office-buildings-vacancies-commerical-markets-investors-remote-2024-1">record highs</a> over the past year.Elevated interest rates have also made it difficult for businesses to pay back debt on commercial real estate loans related to offices, retail, hotel, and apartment building properties, among others. That's because some loans are coming due — forcing businesses to refinance at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/commercial-real-estate-big-trouble-crash-bank-crisis-2024-2">much higher interest rates</a>.To be sure, we're still far from a debt crisis: The share of past-due and charged-off debt generally remains in line with historical levels after rising from pandemic-era lows. Additionally, some banks are simply restoring reserves that were depleted during the pandemic. However, if the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-layoffs-inflation-spending-job-market-tariffs-morgan-stanley-2024-10">economy slows</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-recession-unemployment-rate-september-payrolls-report-fed-cuts-2024-10">unemployment rate</a> rises further, the uptick in delinquencies could become a larger concern, Biggar said.<h2 id="3723386c-1711-4911-97f5-b3d9337f3327">Wall Street acknowledgement</h2>While <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-banks-earnings-calls-interest-rates-fed-cuts-debt-2024-10">banking executives</a> this earnings season generally spoke highly of the economy, they did acknowledge that elevated prices and interest rates continue to weigh on American consumers."Our customers are healthy, but more discerning in their spend with signs of stress isolated," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/15/citigroup-c-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript/">said</a> Jane Fraser, Citi's CEO, referring to consumers with lower credit scores.Brian Moynihan, Bank of America's CEO, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/15/bank-of-america-bac-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcri/">said</a> that overall consumer spending remains strong but that "consumers are worried of the cost of living, worried about higher rates, and other matters."Charles Scharf, Wells Fargo's CEO, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/11/wells-fargo-wfc-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcript/">said</a> the bank hasn't seen "meaningful changes" in delinquency rates across its credit portfolio, but that there is evidence of financial strain among some Americans."We continue to see more pronounced stress in certain customer segments with lower deposit and asset levels where inflation has partially offset strong employment and wage growth," he said.Jeremy Barnum, JPMorgan's CFO, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2024/10/11/jpmorgan-chase-jpm-q3-2024-earnings-call-transcrip/">said</a> that consumers' discretionary spending has "normalized" following particularly strong levels in recent years.The financial roller coaster of pandemic payments, whipsawing inflation, and high interest rates are especially affecting lower-income Americans."We know consumers at a certain income level and below are strapped," Biggar said, adding, "There's been a lot of concern, particularly at the lower income category, that people are unable to make ends meet."Going forward, Biggar said that many banks could continue adding to their reserves, particularly if the unemployment rate rises further. That might not ultimately be necessary, since the jobless rate has <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNRATE">stabilized</a> over the past two months after a surprise increase."I'm not expecting any big spike from here unless the unemployment rate moves materially higher," Biggar said of further reserve reinforcements.

Big banks are bracing for losses as Americans struggle to pay off debt

In March 2023, Citigroup CEO Jane Fraser anointed Anand Selva, as the bank's chief operating officer. His mandate: oversee a deeply unsexy yet crucial initiative to regain compliance with regulators. At the time, she praised his "long track record of delivering results."So far, Selva's tenure has been rocky.In July, two regulators <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-jane-fraser-regulatory-citigroup-transformation-2024-7">fined Citi $135.6 million</a> for failing to make enough progress in fixing its data-management issues. The bank had agreed in 2020 to work on this problem and others, including poor risk controls, after <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/citigroup-slammed-400-mln-fine-longstanding-deficiencies-regulation-occ-fed-2020-10-1029660295">paying $400 million</a> in fines to the Federal Reserve and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The OCC said in July that the bank had made "meaningful progress overall" but that the agency wanted to ensure Citi allocated enough resources to address the "persistent weaknesses" regarding data.These new fines are despite Citi dedicating massive resources to a firmwide initiative to overhaul the bank's technology. This program, called the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-transformation-citigroup-regulatory-fine-anand-selvakesari-2024-7">"Transformation"</a> and overseen by Selva, has about 13,000 employees. Citi spent $7.4 billion on the endeavor from 2021 through 2023. This year's budget has been increased by $250 million, to more than $3 billion.The pressure is on, with Sen. Elizabeth Warren urging the OCC to "impose growth restrictions" on Citi, arguing that it has grown "too big to manage." The regulator and Citi declined to comment."We've always said that progress wouldn't be linear," Fraser said after the latest fines, "and we have no doubt that we will be successful in getting our firm where it needs to be in terms of our Transformation."For Selva, leading the Transformation is unlike any test he has faced in his three-decade career at Citi. Selva, who goes by the shortened version of his last name, Selvakesari, joined Citi as an assistant operations manager in Chennai, India, in 1991. He rose through the ranks in Asia before taking over the US consumer bank in 2019. When Fraser was made CEO in 2021, she chose Selva, who's now 57, to replace her as the global head of consumer banking.In his current role, his mandate is to make the bank safer, not to turn a profit. To do so, he has to solve for Citi's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-real-reasons-behind-citi-mike-corbat-early-retirement-2020-9">decades of underinvestment</a> in its infrastructure, which affects every business line of the bank.Business Insider talked to 14 current and former Citi employees who have worked under Selva to get a picture of the challenge facing him and why he was put in charge of the bank's No. 1 priority. All but two spoke on the condition of anonymity, citing fear of reprisal or the sensitivity of regulatory matters. Three senior executives pointed to his experience navigating regulation and working with technology from running Citi's consumer bank. Gonzalo Luchetti, Selva's successor as the head of the US consumer business, told BI that serving 70 million customers required handling tremendous operational risk."If we mess it up, usually you don't mess it up for one; you mess it up for hundreds of thousands, if not millions," he said. "You have to be super good at process orientation and making sure that there's high discipline and rigor."Luchetti also emphasized Selva's longevity at Citi and experience across regions."He knows the fabric of the firm very well," Luchetti said. "The Transformation is about really repiping the machine. He's touched a lot of the machine himself."But touching the machine isn't the same as fixing it. Eight employees told BI that they were surprised that Selva was made the head of the Transformation given that he had never held a leadership role in technology or compliance. They described Citi's culture as a cliquey environment that rewards managing up over results, noting that the COO promotion followed dismal performance for the wealth unit he oversaw."The biggest job was given to a guy who with 1 ½ years in wealth wasn't able to do anything," a former managing director said.Selva has also come under scrutiny for a lawsuit filed against him and the bank by an ex-Transformation executive in May. Kathleen Martin, a former interim data chair, alleged that Selva pressured her to hide information from the OCC that would make Citi "look bad" and that she was fired in September 2023 after multiple refusals. Citi denied the accusations and filed a counterclaim in late August, alleging that Martin was fired for underperformance. Citi has recently made leadership changes to Selva's unit. The bank tapped its new tech head, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-data-tim-ryan-anand-selva-memo-transformation-regulators-2024-9">Tim Ryan</a>, to lead the data effort alongside Selva and take over management of the 800-employee data team. The work on data, along with risks and controls, is paramount to the Transformation.Splitting the burden may expedite the massive task, which requires coordinating work from employees across the entire bank. Citi declined to specify a timeline, citing the confidential nature of regulatory matters. A managing director in the Transformation estimated that the work required would take about two decades.Mike Mayo, a Wells Fargo analyst, said that until Citi meets the requirements of the OCC and the Federal Reserve, the bank is in "regulatory purgatory.""Citi has thrown over 10,000 people and $3 billion and more at this problem," Mayo told BI in July. "They just have to get it done."Selva does have a long track record at Citi. Born in Madurai, a large city in southern India, he studied engineering and played basketball at the Coimbatore Institute of Technology. He earned his master's in business administration at Madurai Kamaraj University before joining Citi in 1991.Selva made his name at Citi by shaping its consumer-bank businesses across Asia. He led retail banking in China and India before taking over the Asia Pacific market in 2015. His approach was digital-first, eschewing branches for banking apps. Despite closing 60% of bank branches in Asia from 2016 through 2018, Selva grew deposits by 10%.<div type="image" title="Citi's Anand Selva speaking at a panel, seated and wearing a pinstripe suit and a red tie." height="3307" width="4960" msid="114093573" hostid="261" sizebytes="2310830"></div>"He's very tech and digital-oriented," Luchetti said. "We've been to China together to look at startups and firms that were disrupting the world. He was always very connected with learning more about technology, had that curiosity, and then the execution chops to get it done here."In 2019, Selva moved from Singapore to New York, where he now lives with his family, to run the US consumer bank. He assumed the global consumer-banking business from Fraser in 2021. Selva leaned on credit-card and lending offerings, launching products like Citi Custom Cash which allowed customers to pick their reward categories, and Flex Pay, a buy-now, pay-later service. Under Selva, Citi was the No. 2 issuer of credit cards in the US, and deposits grew by more than a third, to about $220 billion.In 2021, Citi started divesting itself of more than a dozen consumer-bank markets across Asia, Europe, and the Middle East. Selva was an important player on both sides of the table, according to Adora Tidalgo, the head of operational risk management at Citi. She said he helped find Asian acquirers that maximized value for Citi while keeping the businesses running smoothly with low attrition."That skill of balancing how much you want to bring in terms of revenue and the credit loss you want to take is really a skill that very much needs to be honed in the consumer space," she said. "That balancing, to me, I have seen Anand over the year been very successful in doing that."There have been some bumps in the road. As part of Fraser's reorganization of the bank in 2021, Selva gained oversight of a newly formed wealth unit and its new leader, Jim O'Donnell. Six current and former managing directors told BI that Selva's approach focused more on scale and digital offerings than high-touch client service. For instance, he didn't approve loans that failed to meet a certain threshold of return, even if it meant losing an important client, two former managing directors said."The way that every private banker on earth thinks about relationships is you need to invest in relationships, and then as you start to do more business with clients, you start getting more and more valuable opportunities with them," one of the former managing directors said. "You have to look at the relationship. You can't just look at every single transaction."Employees argued that Selva's playbook may have worked to build scale in Asia but not to satisfy well-heeled — and much more sought-after — US clients."I think Anand's decisions were comparing everything to what he knew from his time in Asia, and they are completely different markets," another former managing director said. "In Asia, Citi has a very recognizable brand, and people actually want to bank with Citi. You don't have to sell it that hard."<div type="image" title="Citi CEO Jane Fraser testifying at Congress" height="3828" width="5846" msid="114093582" hostid="261" sizebytes="314760"></div>The wealth business' revenue dropped by 6% year over year at the end of 2022. Fraser called the division's performance "disappointing." O'Donnell's reign over wealth was cut short in January 2023, and it was later placed under <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/andy-sieg-citi-wealth-management-ceo-2024-6">Andy Sieg</a>, the former head of Merrill Wealth Management. With Citi on a campaign to divest itself of 14 international consumer-bank markets, Selva's remit shrank.His appointment as COO thrust him into the spotlight. Tidalgo told BI that he was no stranger to the task of dealing with regulators."When you are the head of a country, you are the face of Citi to the regulators. Good, bad, or indifferent, you have to face them," she said. "That's part of the job."Citi's Transformation and its challenges predate Selva's appointment as COO. It existed as a firmwide initiative before the October 2020 fines but was kicked into overdrive after Citi entered consent orders with the OCC and the Federal Reserve.It can be viewed as two parts. The most visible is the strategy to simplify and modernize the bank, such as divesting Asian consumer businesses, removing five layers of management, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citigroup-reorganization-layoffs-management-overhaul-reorganization-jane-fraser-stock-price-2023-9">reorganizing</a> so that the five business lines report directly to Fraser.The second part is meant to address the 2020 consent orders. The initiative is separated into seven programs, including finance, compliance, and risk and controls. While some 13,000 employees are dedicated to the Transformation, much of this work is carried out by employees across the bank. Selva sits at the center, coordinating these efforts. He's in a tough position, as much of the Transformation's work is executed by employees in other divisions."The challenge with the Transformation role is you are accountable yet not responsible," the managing director in the Transformation said. "The role is really coordinating and getting others to do what they need to do, which is very different from running a business where the entire team follows your lead, you own it, you have the ability to actually get them to do this stuff."When everyone is accountable, effectively no one is, a former senior vice president in the Transformation said. Matters got stuck in bureaucracy, bouncing from one department to another and being debated in committee for months.A senior executive in the Transformation acknowledged that the programs often rely on each other's work. For example, a delay in data work can lead to one for a finance project."When we are asked sometimes why it is challenging to execute on the Transformation, one of the challenges is the interconnectivity of those seven works," she said.The senior executive said the Transformation's successes had been overlooked, partly because the bank is limited in what it can say on regulatory matters. For instance, Citi has retired or replaced a quarter of its applications, halfway to its overall goal. The bank declined to specify the number of existing or terminated applications, but as of July, it had retired nearly 300 applications this year. The senior executive also touted the bank's streamlining its risk-management workflow.But the Transformation has earned a middling grade from Citi itself. The bank evaluates the initiative's success for the purposes of a bonus program applicable to about 200 senior employees, including Selva. In 2022, an internal committee gave it a score of 94%, citing targets it met, such as submitting remediation plans to regulators.For 2023, the score sank to 80%, calculated by measuring the timeliness of executing scheduled work, the percentage of work deemed complete by the bank's internal auditors, and a "qualitative consideration of Citi's cultural change" derived from the bank's employee surveys.<div type="image" title="Headshot of Citi's new tech head Tim Ryan, smiling and wearing a black suit jacket with a light blue shirt" height="739" width="985" msid="114093578" hostid="261" sizebytes="32120"></div>Bringing in Ryan, the bank's head of technology and business enablement, to help the bank catch up makes sense. The recruiter Phil Waxelbaum argued that a more traditional candidate to help lead the Transformation would be a seasoned, high-ranking person from a regulatory agency. But someone with a nonbanking background such as consulting or technology can work, too, according to recruiter Jeffrey Warren. Ryan joined Citi in June after seven years leading the US business of PricewaterhouseCoopers."In situations like this when you are looking to drive transformation, you need someone who can work at the intersection of people, processes, and technology," said Warren, managing director at Russell Reynolds Associates. "That includes working from within and likely driving some change with new people who have experience in new technologies or new ways of doing things."Ryan is now sharing data, a significant component of the Transformation, with Selva. Another PwC alum, Citi's head of enterprise risk management, Ashutosh Nawani, will take over the chief data office from one of Selva's lieutenants, Japan Mehta, and report to Ryan. Mehta will move to another role that the bank declined to specify.Employees told BI that they thought bringing in Ryan and Nawani would help."Sure, there might be some reservation that more consultants are coming in to run Citi, but there is a positive vibe of changing senior leadership," the former senior vice president in the Transformation said. "Legacy Citi culture is what got us into this spot in the first place."While the July fines did not meaningfully move Citi's stock, they have placed the bank and the Transformation under greater scrutiny. The OCC has ordered Citi to provide a resource-review plan each quarter to ensure the bank is providing enough resources for the effort. The Securities and Exchange Commission has also required the bank to address the Transformation's progress in future filings.The outstanding issues have also impeded Citi from expanding in China. According to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-09-23/citigroup-s-china-expansion-plan-put-on-hold-by-us-regulators">Bloomberg</a>, the bank is still waiting on a clearance letter from the Federal Reserve to set up a securities office. The bank declined to comment on the process but said it was "fully committed to supporting clients" in China.<div type="image" title="Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts at a hearing on Capitol Hill on January 11, 2024." height="1333" width="2000" msid="114093583" hostid="261" sizebytes="96482"></div>Regulators placing an asset cap on Citi, as Senator Warren has requested, isn't out of the realm of possibility, said Timothy Coffey, an analyst with Janney Montgomery Scott."At what point do the regulators just get fed up with Citi's inability to adequately resolve these issues or stick to the timeline that they've laid out?" he said. "That's an open-ended question."But the consent orders and the lack of progress are distractions in themselves. When Fraser took over Citi nearly four years ago, she said the Transformation was her No. 1 priority and asked for patience. Now her requests for time are wearing thin. Regardless of who leads the Transformation, Fraser is still accountable."This stays out here in terms of headline risk, and I think it puts a cap on the valuation that Citi can achieve," said Stephen Biggar, an Argus Research analyst. "It's an overhang on the stock. It's an overhang on the reputation of Fraser."Do you work for Citi? Have a tip or story to share? Reach out to Hayley Cuccinello at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:hcuccinello@businessinsider.com">hcuccinello@businessinsider.com</a> or 917 740 5340, which works for calls, text, and the encrypted messaging app Signal.

Meet the executive tasked with Citi's hardest challenge: getting the bank's house in order

<div type="image" title="Are Indians depositing less money in banks, or more in mutual funds? Turns out, it&amp;#39;s neither of those." msid="113663806" hostid="261" sizebytes="1121785"></div> Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of <keyword id="20202062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bank-deposits" source="keywords">bank deposits</keyword> in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialisation of <keyword id="20751315" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="household-savings" source="keywords">household savings</keyword> in the country or the rising preference of Indians towards <keyword id="19929240" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-funds" source="keywords">mutual funds</keyword> and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian <keyword id="19949641" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-markets" source="keywords">equity markets</keyword> through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="RBI" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="RBI">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by Franklin Templeton, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are household deposits really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. <div type="image" title="Yes, household deposits (as % of total deposits) have dipped, but the drop is far from significant" msid="113663882" hostid="261" sizebytes="306706"></div> Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian households in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and <keyword id="114757" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="savings-account" source="Orion">savings account</keyword> deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (Central Board of Direct Taxes) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of Securities Transaction Tax (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell <keyword id="6361918" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-mutual-funds" source="Orion">equity mutual funds</keyword>, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by <keyword id="45369" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equities" source="Orion">equities</keyword> can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in <keyword id="19998084" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="deposit-growth" source="keywords">deposit growth</keyword> we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the Fed recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day. Do you have insights or personal experience to share on your personal finances or money? Contact us at <a target="_blank" class="c-link" href="mailto:businessinsider@timesinternet.in">businessinsider@timesinternet.in</a>.

Simply Put: A Deposit Dilemma — What's the fuss about a crisis in Indian bank deposits? Are mutual fund investments to blame?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>BlackRock brought in $221 billion in net inflows in the third quarter, the most in its history.</li><li>The world's largest asset manager, though, is focused on growing its private markets business.</li></ul>BlackRock became the world's largest asset manager because it made cheap funds for the masses. Now, the $11.5 trillion behemoth wants to put high-fee private market strategies in your portfolio.The firm brought in more assets last quarter — $221 billion — than ever before, but on its earnings call, the firm's leaders focused more on integrating strategies from the recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrock-larry-fink-gip-acquisition-reorganization-layoffs-crypto-2024-1">acquisition of Global Infrastructure Partners</a> into model portfolios than on its ballooning ETF franchise."This is a revenue growth story," said BlackRock's chief financial officer Martin Small Friday morning. GIP, the infrastructure asset manager that BlackRock paid $12.5 billion for, is expected to add $250 million in management fees to BlackRock's bottom line in the fourth quarter alone."This is a meaningful accelerant to our private markets capabilities," he said.A quarter century after BlackRock went public — the firm IPOed on October 1, 1999 — the firm hopes to blend its private market strategies into its model portfolios for wealth managers. Private equity and private credit strategies have the potential to bring on higher returns but are also less liquid and more expensive investments than mutual funds or ETFs. The manager is hoping to be the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/blackrock-wants-to-build-the-infrastructure-for-ai-2024-4">builder of next-generation technology,</a> whether that's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-ai-infrastructure-data-center-microsoft-blackrock-2024-9">data centers needed for artificial intelligence</a> or infrastructure needed for decarbonization."We're not going to say they're alternatives because they'll just be part of the market," said BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, about private strategies, which have long been touted in industry lingo as "alternatives" to the public market.Fink said risk will be measured by the liquidity of these blended portfolios. The firm's $3.2 billion acquisition of data giant Preqin will help bring these more complex strategies to a broader audience. The acquisition is set to close at the end of the year."It's going to happen with the expansion of data and analytics," Fink said.The firm's focus may be shifting because there aren't many more levers to pull for increased growth in its iShares franchise, which crossed $1 trillion in total assets last quarter. The firm's leaders said the fourth quarter is traditionally a strong one for this segment of their business, and the franchise has also seen serious inflows following political events and central bank decisions.Comparatively, retail allocation to the private markets is in the "low-single digits," according to Small, giving BlackRock another territory to expand into."The opportunities ahead of us have never been better than they are now," Fink said. Private credit, for example, could pick up billions of dollars from the firm's insurance clients, which have $700 billion invested with BlackRock."We've never shied away from taking big bets," Fink said, and private market strategies are the latest roll of the dice.

BlackRock brought in more money last quarter than ever before. Here's where the $11.5 trillion asset manager hopes to become the industry leader next.

Over the past few months, there’s been a lot of brouhaha about the lagging pace of bank deposits in India. Simply put, the rate at which Indians are depositing their hard-earned money in banks has been falling constantly, and some blame the increasing financialization of household savings in the country, or the rising preference of Indians towards mutual funds and shares. So, the hypothesis is that people are choosing to invest more in mutual funds and the Indian equity markets through direct investments, IPOs, or NFOs, the money flowing into Indian banks in the form of deposits is slowing down. But is that really the case? <h2>A crisis or a phase?</h2><keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> data suggested that for the quarter ended June 2024, bank deposits grew at 11.7%. On the other hand, credit growth has outpaced this at 15%. This means that the outflow from banks as loans is far greater than the inflow into them in the form of deposits in Q1 of FY 2024-25. The situation largely saw cut-copy-paste in the first week of September as well, with loans registering a 13.3% YoY growth during the period, while deposits rose only 11.1%. This gap has only been widening for the last 3 years. Since deposits are how banks gather assets to further lend and earn interest income as a consequence, even a slight dip could set the alarm bells ringing for banks, and rightfully so. And truth be told, mutual funds are indeed taking on bank deposits in a big way. Per a report by <keyword id="20250971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="franklin-templeton" source="keywords">Franklin Templeton</keyword>, in August 2024, the AUM (assets under management) of Indian mutual funds, or the total funds managed by them, stood at 31.3% of total bank deposits in the country, up from 24.20% during the year-ago period. As of August 2024, the AUM of mutual funds stood at Rs 66.17 lakh crore, an all-time high. But all said and done, is this really the reason why the rate of bank deposits is falling behind? SBI has dismissed this to be a “statistical myth”, and experts point out that since equity and fund houses also keep the cash in their respective bank accounts, there’s no cause for concern. So, is financialization really to be blamed for the trailing tempo of deposits? Or is something else happening behind the scenes? We take a closer look: <h2>First, are <keyword id="4000333" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="household-deposits" source="Orion">household deposits</keyword> really slowing down? And is that a cause of concern?</h2>Data from Motilal Oswal suggests the contrary. Deposits grew by around 10.4% between March 2020 and August 2024. Data from RBI also highlights that as of August 9, 2024, bank deposits witnessed a YoY growth of 10.8%. The loan-to-deposit ratio for the retail segment, which indicates what percentage of its total deposits the banks lend out as loans, has stayed at 77.5%, above the 77% mark for the tenth straight month. Also, we can’t forego the fact that the share of Indian <keyword id="20319599" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="households" source="keywords">households</keyword> in bank deposits has indeed slowed down. However, data from Axis AMC shows that the dip is marginal—from 63% in 2022 to 62% in 2023 and 61% in 2024. What has slowed down even more considerably is the share of government deposits in the aggregate bank deposits, which has dipped from 14% in 2018 to 9% in 2024. So, it's not just household deposits, you see. Moreover, as of March 2024, the collective CASA ratio (current and savings account deposits) of all commercial banks in India stood at 41.00%, down from 43.1% in March 2023 and 45.2% in March 2022, marking a nearly 5% point decline over the past year, while still staying over the 10-year average of 39.2%. This implies that Indian banks are relying more on higher-cost funds (savings accounts), which can limit their profitability. <h2>What is this financialisation of savings we are talking about?</h2>Then again, there is no doubt about the growing affinity of Indians towards mutual funds and stock markets. Recent data from CBDT (<keyword id="19942037" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="central-board-of-direct-taxes" source="keywords">Central Board of Direct Taxes</keyword>) highlights that India’s net direct tax collection surged by around 22%, driven exclusively by the significant uptick in the collection of <keyword id="20930760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="securities-transaction-tax" source="keywords">Securities Transaction Tax</keyword> (STT), which doubled to Rs 26,154 crore, from Rs 13,352 crore in the year-ago period. Why does this matter? STT is levied when you buy or sell equity shares on stock exchanges, sell equity mutual funds, and trade in futures and options in the equity segment. Such taxes, including the multiple other taxes in equity market investments, are considered as leakages as the money moves out of the economy into government coffers. Data from a ValueQuest report explains that over the last 20 years, the markets have handsomely rewarded the investors, generating over $900 billion in incremental value for them. This is the major driver behind the dramatic rise in investment flowing towards the equity markets. There’s further proof of this budding romance, if you check the demat pudding. The number of demat accounts, which are a primary requisite for participating in the stock markets, also burgeoned by 42.3 lakh in August 2024, taking India’s total tally of demat accounts beyond 17 crore. To put this in perspective, this is almost equivalent to the population of just 8 nations in the world, including China, the US, Brazil and more. Vivek Iyer, Partner, Grant Thornton Bharat thinks it's rather important, as well. “Financialisation of household savings in India is an indication of deepening capital markets in the market, especially from a retail investor standpoint. Bank deposits with a modest rate of return are no longer the only option for savings for investors. Investors today have more avenues for wealth creation in the form of public capital markets, which have democratized wealth creation and provided equality of opportunity to retail investors”, he says. Yes, Indians are investing more and more in the markets, and in mutual funds. But is it a sin to look out for inflation-beating returns, which the stock markets offer, and vanilla bank deposits don't? After all, the allure of 12-13% annual returns offered by equities can certainly pale the stability offered by good old deposits, which generally do not go beyond 9% when it comes to annual returns. But all of this is not what is behind the slowdown. India is still a toddler in the school of savings financialization, with less than 10% of the population holding a demat account, and less than 5% of us saving in equities. That's a drop in the ocean of deposits, far inadequate to trigger a tsunami. <h2>Tell me why lagging deposits have nothing to do with Indians investing more in mutual funds!</h2>Says Shweta Rajani, Head - Mutual Funds, Anand Rathi Wealth Limited, “Households' equity holdings composition grew from 11.1% in FY 23 to 14.7% in FY 24. This trend reflects a growing awareness of investment options, empowering individuals to take control of their financial futures. Despite this transition towards equities, banks still hold a significant share of household financial savings—33.5% in FY24 compared to 34.9% in FY23”. Also, household savings and their subsequent financialization do not have much to do with deposit creation, which is entirely made by banks. What actually drives increased deposits is credit growth or increased lending. When interest rates are eased, people tend to borrow more and spend more, which circulates more money in the economy. For the past 4 years, RBI has been tightening the screws on interest rates, which raises the cost of borrowings, and makes it more expensive to take loans, putting a dampener on credit growth, but effectively curbing inflationary pressures. The last time RBI cut the repo rate by 40 basis points was back in May 2020, 4 years ago. The lag in deposit growth we’re witnessing is almost 3 years old. Coincidence much, or just good old economics at work? But with the <keyword id="19900043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fed" source="keywords">Fed</keyword> recently setting a rate cut precedent by slashing 50 bps off its interest rate, RBI is expected to follow suit in the next <keyword id="19918491" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mpc" source="keywords">MPC</keyword> (Monetary Policy Committee) meeting, scheduled for November 2024. A rate cut would ease the aforementioned high cost of borrowing, and increase loan-taking for corporates and institutional investors, thereby stoking consumption in the economy. And then, deposit creation in banks is likely to return to its former glory. If not, then that would be a curious case to unravel! But that worry is for another day.

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