<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Reuters/Lucas Jackson</div></div></div><ul><li>An overlooked area of the market has been outperforming, sporting the only positive information ratio out of all major asset classes since the start of 2018.</li><li>Bank of America Merrill Lynch sees the group continuing to outperform, and offers two trade recommendations investors can use to capitalize.</li></ul>Both equity and bond investors have had a rough go of it over the past several weeks as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/volatility" target="_blank" rel="noopener">volatility</a> has re-entered the market, whipping up price swings and making life difficult for speculators.But under the surface, away from the flashy headlines that regularly grace financial news sites, one asset class has been grinding out positive returns in relative anonymity.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Bank of America Merrill Lynch</div></div></div>As the chart to the right shows, commodities are the only major group to generate a so-called information ratio - defined as the active return over a relevant benchmark - that's exceeded zero this year.It's not a fluke, says <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/bank-of-america-merrill-lynch" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Bank of America Merrill Lynch</a>."As bond and equity markets continue to suffer the consequences of tighter monetary policy and the normalization of interest rates, rising inflationary pressures across the economy (which will in turn force the Fed to continue to tighten policy) are acting as a tailwind for the commodity complex," William Chan, a derivatives strategist at BAML, wrote in a client note. "This nascent outperformance of commodities may prove to have more legs."In a cruel twist of fate, the elements Chan mentions as supporting commodities - higher <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/category/inflation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">inflation</a> and rate hikes - are among the biggest fears for stock and bond investors. And this dynamic has manifested itself in what BAML calls a "record disconnect in cross-asset risk pricing."They're specifically referring to global equity hedges sitting close to their most expensive levels in more than 10 years - a development that stands in direct contrast to other asset classes and even other stock markets (most notably Europe).<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Bank of America Merrill Lynch</div></div></div>So now that you're armed with all of this information, how can you use it to profit? BAML has two specific trades in mind:1) Buy $14/$15 call spreads expiring in July 2018 on the United States Oil Fund (USO)BAML cites its own commodity strategy team, which last week raised their second-quarter target to $80 per barrel for <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent</a> and to $76 per barrel for <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> in the wake of more likely cooperation between Russia and OPEC, and escalating geopolitical risks."We think call spreads on USO set up well with 3M ATMf implied vol currently in the 14th percentile over the past 3 years but 3M ATMf-110% call skew near the most inverted levels on record," said Chan.2) Buy SPDR Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE) outperformance calls versus the S&amp;P 500BAML notes the performance of energy stocks relative to the S&amp;P 500 is usually positively correlated to the price of oil, so this strategy matches the firm's bullish energy outlook."We favor outperformance calls, as the max loss is limited to the upfront premium paid and the rewards vs. risk is more asymmetric." Get the latest Bank of America stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/BAC-Quote"> here.</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-bull-explains-trade-war-trade-war-fears-overblown-2018-4">Wall Street's biggest bull explains why trade war fears are way overblown</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

An overlooked corner of the market has been quietly crushing it - and Bank of America has 2 trades to capitalize on more strength

On Wednesday, we get the Federal Reserve's last monetary policy decision of the year.&#xa0;
The decision will be released at 2:00 pm ET, and a press conference with Fed Chair Janet Yellen will start at 2:30 pm ET.&#xa0;
The last time a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fomc-statement-september-17-2014-9">Fed meeting</a> was accompanied by a press conference was September 17.&#xa0;
The Fed obviously considers what's happening in the world economy and financial markets as it debates its next policy move and the language contained in its statement.&#xa0;
Here's how different the investing world looked back in September:
<ul>
<li>WTI crude oil was just above $90 a barrel; right now, WTI is at about $55.&#xa0;
</li>
<li>The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond was 2.6%; right now, the 10-year yield is at 2.06%.
</li>
<li>The S&amp;P 500 was right at 2,000; on Tuesday, the S&amp;P 500 closed at 1,972.&#xa0;
</li>
<li>One US dollar bought about 38 Russian rubles; right now, one dollar buys about 70 rubles.
</li>
<li>The German 10-year bund was yielding about 1.08%; today, the 10-year bund yield is 0.6%.
</li>
<li>One US dollar bought about 107 Japanese yen; right now, the dollar buys about 116 yen.
</li>
<li>The "XLE" ETF representing the S&amp;P 500 energy sector was 22% higher.&#xa0;
</li>
</ul>
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/december-fomc-meeting-preview-2014-12">You can read our full preview of Wednesday's meeting here »</a>

Here's How Different The World Looked The Last Time Janet Yellen Held A Press Conference

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>Big cuts from big oil are coming.
On Monday, ConocoPhillips announced its capital expenditures plan for 2015, and the company expects to spend 20% less next year than it did this year. 
"We are setting our 2015 capital budget at a level that we believe is prudent given the current environment," said Ryan Lance, ConocoPhillips CEO <a href="http://www.conocophillips.com/newsroom/Pages/2014/ConocoPhillips-Sets-2015-Capital-Budget-of-$13.5-Billion.aspx">said in a statement.</a> 
ConocoPhillips said that 2015 capex would total $13.5 billion, down 20% from 2014.
In a statement, the company said, "The reduction in capital relative to 2014 primarily reflects lower spending on major projects, several of which are nearing completion, as well as the deferral of spending on North American unconventional plays."
On Monday, the price of both WTI and Brent oil was falling sharply, with both benchmarks making fresh multi-year lows. 
Brent prices were down more than 4% to just above $66 a barrel and WTI was down more than 3% to just above $63 a barrel. 
The news from ConocoPhillips comes after a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-bp-to-wield-jobs-ax-as-oil-price-slump-takes-toll--report-2014-12">report by The Sunday Times</a> said BP is accelerating plans to reduce headcount.
According to Reuters, BP official Brian Gilvary told The Times: "What you'll see with this simplification plan is that headcounts are starting to come down across all of our activities in upstream, downstream and in the corporate centers - essentially the layers above operations."
A look across the universe of oil and gas stocks, and the damage has been done, with the 'XLE' ETF representing the S&amp;P 500's Energy sector down 19% year-to-date. 
The more focused oil &amp; gas sector ETF trading under 'XOP' and the oil &amp; gas services ETF trading under 'XES' have seen even steeper losses this year, losing more than 33% respectively.

The Oil Giants Are Starting To Slash Costs

JonesTrading's Dave Lutz has a roundup of what traders are chatting about right now.
Good Morning, and happy "Quadruple Witching" Friday - US Futures are higher, led again by Technology as Nasdaq rallies 35bp - however Headlines "ECB considers making weaker euro zone states bear more QE risk" has taken the wind outta the EU rally in the last hour, knocking Germany into the red by 40bp in heavy volume.&#xa0;&#xa0; Many of the PIIGs markets getting hit much more sharply, with Spain and Italy off 1.4% and falling quick.&#xa0;&#xa0; The MICEX is under pressure, but the Ruble is stabilizing, and German Consumer Confidence comes in strong - so this is ECB driven.&#xa0;&#xa0;&#xa0; Over in Asia, Shanghai jumped another 1.7% as doves grow louder, the Nikkei jumped 2.4% as the Yen fell, and Aussie strongest day in 18mos - Miners acting well overseas, while Roche #s weigh on Healthcare 
The 10YY is holding yesterday's gains, resting just above 2.2%, while the treasury curve is mixed after yesterday's steepening.&#xa0;&#xa0; Bunds didn't have quite the selloff we saw in Treasuries yesterday, and they are well bid again this AM near 60bp.&#xa0;&#xa0;&#xa0; The $ is making headway against both Euro and Yen (Nothing unexpected from BOJ), so the DXY is moving to challenge 2014's peaks at 89.55 - a headwind for commodities.&#xa0;&#xa0; The Oil complex is rebounding into CME expiry today for WTI, with both benchmarks gaining 1.5% despite the CME raising margins on Coal, Crude, and Natty.&#xa0; Natty gas is off small, while Wheat is retreating quickly from yesterday's Russia spike.&#xa0;&#xa0; Reminder - All the main State Street ETFs go Ex. Divvy today.&#xa0;&#xa0;&#xa0; SPY, QQQ, DIA, XOP, XLE - and we will have a few Fed headlines, starting with Fed's Evans at 10, the Kansas City Fed Manf. Activity index at 11, Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economy at 12, and Energy players will be focused on the Baker Hughes Rig Count at 1.&#xa0;&#xa0; "Commitment of Traders" data hits at 3:30.

What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Tech Is Leading Futures Higher...

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="1055033" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Toyota-Rav4">Toyota RAV4</keyword> is the automaker's most popular vehicle, selling nearly half a million last year alone.</li><li>The 2021 RAV4 Prime is the plug-in hybrid version, which boasts an impressive 42 estimated miles of EV-only range.</li><li>The RAV4 Prime has a starting price of $38,100, but my loaner in the top-tier XSE AWD trim started at $41,425 MSRP. After options, it came out to $49,831.</li></ul>The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/toyota-rav4-prime">2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime</a> is what you get when you take the best-selling passenger car in the US, make it a plug-in hybrid, and give it great all-electric range. To those still waiting on the so-called EV revolution, I say it's already here — here in the form of highly capable <keyword id="2158849" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="plug-in-hybrids">plug-in hybrids</keyword> like the RAV4 Prime. I already know the regular RAV4 <a href="https://jalopnik.com/the-2019-toyota-rav4-can-almost-do-it-all-1834282110">is a champion at almost everything it does</a>, so it was unsurprising that when I made a list of cars I was most excited to drive this year, the RAV4 Prime was near the top. It was time to see if the 302-horsepower, plug-in hybrid version of an already great car would be any better.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_16" height="3750" width="2500" msid="78590824" hostid="261"></div>Spoiler alert: It is.<h2>The 2021 <keyword id="6374528" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="toyota">Toyota</keyword> RAV4 Optimus Prime: Plug-in <keyword id="6557668" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="hybrids">hybrids</keyword>, roll out</h2>The RAV4 is Toyota's most popular vehicle in the US, with <a href="https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-motor-north-america-reports-december-2019-year-end-sales/">448,071</a> sold last year alone. It was the <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g27041933/best-selling-cars-2019/">fourth best-selling vehicle in the US overall</a> behind the Ford F-Series, Ram Pickup, and the Chevrolet Silverado — all pickup trucks.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_56" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590827" hostid="261"></div>The RAV4 is not a pickup truck, but it's not a small car, either. It's a two-row, five-seater SUV that's now in its boxy-faced fifth generation. Length comes to 15 feet, width comes to nearly 6.1 feet, and height comes to 5.6 feet. There are 8.3 inches of ground clearance.Partway through the current RAV4's life cycle, Toyota unveiled the RAV4 Prime — the plug-in hybrid version of the SUV — at the 2019 Los Angeles Auto Show. <div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_26" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590832" hostid="261"></div>To be clear, Toyota already had a hybrid RAV4, just not a plug-in one. The RAV4 Prime became the second plug-in hybrid offering from Toyota, following the Prius Prime.<h2>Details and safety ratings: The most powerful RAV4 ever </h2>A plug-in hybrid is different from a conventional hybrid because, as its name suggests, you can plug it in and charge the battery that way. Conventional hybrids have much shorter EV-only ranges, if they offer any at all. A plug-in hybrid's batteries tend to be bigger and EV-only range is greater, but this also makes them more expensive. <div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_OEM_2" height="1668" width="2500" msid="78590834" hostid="261"></div>The RAV4 Prime uses a 2.5-liter, four-cylinder gasoline engine that produces a claimed 177 horsepower. When combined with the electric motors, total system output comes to a claimed 302 horsepower. That means the RAV4 Prime is part of a growing camp of Toyota cars and crossovers with more than 300 horsepower, with Toyota proclaiming it the "<a href="https://pressroom.toyota.com/vehicle/2021-toyota-rav4-prime/">most powerful RAV4 ever</a>." Others include the <a href="https://www.automobilemag.com/news/top-10-cheapest-cars-with-300-horsepower-193181/">Toyota Camry TRD, Toyota Avalon XLE</a>, and the <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/toyota-cms-media/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/2021-Toyota-Supra-Product-Info.pdf">six-cylinder Supra</a>. <div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_35" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590837" hostid="261"></div>The RAV4 Prime has something <a href="https://pressroom.toyota.com/toyota-revs-up-lineup-with-new-302-horsepower-rav4-prime/">Toyota calls</a> "Electronic On-Demand All-Wheel Drive," which involves a separate, rear-mounted electric motor powering the back wheels when necessary, such as during acceleration and in low-traction situations. Toyota <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/toyota-rav4-prime-plug-in-hybrid-specs-pricing-release-date-2020-6">quotes</a> the RAV4 Prime's EV-only driving range to be 42 miles, which is <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377500/plug-in-hybrid-car-suv-vehicles/">impressively high</a>. The Environmental Protection Agency estimates it to return 94 mpge (<a href="https://cars.usnews.com/cars-trucks/what-is-mpge">miles per gallon of gasoline-equivalent</a>) and 38 mpg in hybrid mode on city and highway combined driving.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_24" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590841" hostid="261"></div>Comparatively, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/most-fuel-efficient-cars-vehicles-best-gas-mileage-2019-11#:~:text=The%20average%20car%20sold%20in,miles%20per%20gallon%20(MPG).">the average car sold in the US gets about 25 mpg</a>.At the time of this writing, the <keyword id="10085628" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="2021-toyota-rav4-prime">2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime</keyword> has not yet been rated for crash safety by <a href="https://www.nhtsa.gov/vehicle/2021/TOYOTA/RAV4%252520PRIME">the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration</a> or the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety.<h2>What stands out: An estimated 42 miles of EV-only driving </h2><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_OEM_4" height="1668" width="2500" msid="78590843" hostid="261"></div>Compared to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-lotus-evora-gt-review-price-specs-horsepower-sports-car-2020-9">the last car I drove</a>, the RAV4 Prime was a breeze to climb in and out of. And there was so much room for everything. The back seats were roomy and the trunk offered 33.4 cubic feet of storage space, or <a href="https://jalopnik.com/the-2019-toyota-rav4-can-almost-do-it-all-1834282110">slightly less</a> than the non-plug-in RAV4. There was plenty of headroom and, owing to the square design of the rear, visibility was great all around. For front passengers, there were even little rubber-lined cubbies for your loose items. So thoughtful! <div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_OEM_1" height="1668" width="2500" msid="78590844" hostid="261"></div>I awarded additional interior points to the RAV4's extensive button, dial, and switch offerings. True, there was no escaping the slapped-on-screen look, but crucial functions such as the climate and radio volume were still controlled via hard switches. The infotainment's user interface looked and felt a little older than some of the other new cars I've reviewed, but it didn't bother me much. I was too busy appreciating the buttons.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_OEM_10" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590847" hostid="261"></div>The RAV4 Prime starts up by default in EV mode, but the gas engine will kick in under hard acceleration. In my own testing, which involved city driving and a stint on the highway, the car returned about 35 miles of EV-only driving before the battery depleted. Two buttons on the center console let a driver: keep the car in pure EV-only mode; keep the car in pure gasoline-only mode; utilize charge mode to replenish the battery; or put it in either Auto EV/HV mode, where the car switches between EV-only driving and using the gasoline engine depending on driving conditions.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_OEM_6" height="1668" width="2500" msid="78590849" hostid="261"></div>When in the appropriate mode, the car switches seamlessly between battery power and gas power. You can get sucked into figuring out your route and toggling around the modes to maximize efficiency, but if you can't be bothered and just want to drive the RAV4 normally, you can easily do that, too. On an empty battery, plugging the car into a wall socket (voltage unknown) took about 11 hours to fully charge. Putting it into charge mode and driving on the highway fully charged the battery in about an hour. <div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_61" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590852" hostid="261"></div><h2>What falls short: The driver information cluster has a lot going on</h2>My one big gripe with the RAV4 was that it was a little slow. The RAV4 in Prime guise fixed that. It felt much quicker and more urgent off the line thanks to the electric motors, but the four-cylinder drone was still loud in the cabin during hard acceleration.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_OEM_7" height="1668" width="2500" msid="78590856" hostid="261"></div>In fact, I wasn't terribly impressed with the car's overall noise, vibration, and harshness quality — also known as NVH, a measurement of the amount of unwanted noise and tactile input that enters the car during driving. The engine was loud and additional noise coming in from the tires against the road did not make for a quiet ride. After being so impressed by the casual athleticism of the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/toyota-venza-2021-review-price-new-crossover-hybrid-specs-photos-2020-7">new Toyota Venza</a> recently, I also expected better handling. The Venza felt agile and darty. The RAV4 Prime did not. Mostly, it felt top heavy. If I took a corner too quickly and didn't brake adequately beforehand, the car tended to lean pretty heavily, which was unpleasant for my passengers. I learned to take corners conservatively.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_65" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590859" hostid="261"></div>The driver gauge cluster also included far more information than necessary. There are a lot of gauges for a lot of different things. The left-hand gauge displays a sort of efficiency meter, showing how much power you're using and what effect it has on your battery. The right-hand gauge shows fuel and battery amount. The center display includes a speedometer, odometer, a check-rear-seat indicator, and projected ranges of both EV and HV (hybrid vehicle?) driving. It also tells you what driving mode you're in, as well as a few other numbers and figures I couldn't quite figure out.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_OEM_5" height="1668" width="2500" msid="78590868" hostid="261"></div>During the first few hours of my loan, I had to remind myself not to get distracted by reading the gauge cluster. Eventually, I made the executive decision to ignore them all, except for the speedo and fuel/battery gauges — the only ones that really matter. <h2>How the RAV4 Prime compares to its competitors: That EV-only range, though </h2><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_7" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590872" hostid="261"></div>There certainly aren't as many plug-in hybrid SUVs as there should be. A few <a href="https://www.caranddriver.com/features/g15377500/plug-in-hybrid-car-suv-vehicles/">comparable competitors</a> to the RAV4 Prime that come to mind are the Kia Niro PHEV, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jeep-wrangler-plug-in-hybrid-coming-in-2020-8">Jeep Wrangler 4xe</a>, Audi Q5 TFSI e, Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, Ford Escape PHEV, and the plug-in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/2020-lincoln-aviator-review-hybrid-specs-three-row-suv-luxury-2020-7">Lincoln Aviator</a>. The RAV4 Prime beats out all of these with either a better EV-only range, cheaper price, or both. The RAV4's closest competitor, the Honda CR-V, does not offer a plug-in version. <div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_43" height="3750" width="2500" msid="78590877" hostid="261"></div>Within the Toyota family, the Prius Prime admittedly does offer <a href="https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/">a starting price that's $10,000 cheaper</a>, but its estimated EV-only mode is lower and it's a smaller car overall. The regular hybrid RAV4 doesn't offer an EV-only mode whatsoever, but it does have <a href="https://www.toyota.com/rav4hybrid/">a starting price of $28,500</a>.The 2021 <keyword id="8366344" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Toyota-RAV4-Prime">Toyota RAV4 Prime</keyword> <a href="https://www.toyota.com/rav4prime/features/mpg/4544/4550">starts at $38,100</a>. My loaner came in the top-tier XSE AWD trim, so starting MSRP was $41,425. With the XSE trim, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/toyota-rav4-prime-plug-in-hybrid-specs-pricing-release-date-2020-6">you get</a> bigger wheels, a moon roof, ambient interior lighting, two-tone exterior paint, and a bigger center touchscreen.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_44" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590880" hostid="261"></div>After options such as a premium audio system ($1,620), special Supersonic Red exterior paint ($425), the Premium Package ($3,765), and some roof-rack crossbars, the new total came out to $49,831.For a RAV4, that's a lot. <h2>Our impressions: The solution to range anxiety</h2><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_60" height="3750" width="2500" msid="78590881" hostid="261"></div><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_59" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590884" hostid="261"></div>The RAV4 is Toyota's volume seller, so it's an important one to get right. And for the majority of US buyers, it's exactly what they need. It's comfortable, utilitarian, highly practical, well thought out, and incredibly easy to drive and use. When it came down to building a mass-market car, Toyota nailed it. No wonder the automaker sold nearly half a million of them last year.Then, Toyota took that package and made it a plug-in hybrid — a good one, at that.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_49" height="3750" width="2500" msid="78590886" hostid="261"></div>In my own testing, I saw a return of about 42 mpg. Our EV-only stint returned about 35 miles, as mentioned above, and that was mostly on a highway. For someone looking for a fuel-efficient car that can also haul around just about everything, the RAV4 Prime is the perfect solution.I don't know what your daily commute looks like, but I could ostensibly see most RAV4 Prime owners relying primarily on the battery to get around town for errands and day-to-day life. Potentially, you could whittle your reliance on gasoline down to zero during daily usage.<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_36" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590890" hostid="261"></div>There's the gas engine to fall back on for longer commutes, of course. But if your roundtrip commute is less than about 42 miles, you could just charge your RAV4 Prime at home overnight so it's fresh and ready to go the next morning. Treat it like an EV. And if there's anything the RAV4 Prime proves, it's that plug-in hybrids like it are a solution for range anxiety. <div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_41" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590891" hostid="261"></div>For those who want an EV but fret about being able to complete long trips, PHEVs are the answer. You don't need to worry about finding a charging station because any old gas station will do, and you can rely on the gasoline engine while your battery is charging. You won't get stuck. I can't really see a downside, and buyers probably won't either.If the future of the RAV4 Prime is anything like the success of the regular RAV4, then strap in. Toyota just might wind up <a href="https://jalopnik.com/the-2021-toyota-rav4-plug-in-hybrid-might-become-the-mo-1838968972">selling thousands and thousands of these things</a>.♦♦♦<div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_52" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590894" hostid="261"></div><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_10" height="3750" width="2500" msid="78590895" hostid="261"></div><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_28" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590896" hostid="261"></div><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_39" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590899" hostid="261"></div><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_42" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590903" hostid="261"></div><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_19" height="3750" width="2500" msid="78590909" hostid="261"></div><div type="image" title="2021 Toyota RAV4 XSE AWD_KL_23" height="1667" width="2500" msid="78590912" hostid="261"></div>

REVIEW: The Toyota RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid is perfect for those who want an EV but can't quite commit yet

From Dave Lutz at JonesTrading, here's what traders are talking about this morning:
US Futures are following global upside, with Russell Minis up 50bp as the "growth" trade continues. We will be on the lookout for mean reversion from yesterday's ETF allocation trades (SPY &gt; IWO / TLT &gt; SPY / VGK &gt; EZU - and a rebound in Energy --&gt; XLE, IYE, XLU) unless the allocation bleeds into today. All of the global upside driven from stronger Chinese Services PMI, and headlines that Russia and Ukraine reach a "permanent ceasefire" in eastern Ukraine. The rouble is bouncing from record lows against the $, and Micex is up 2%+. Volumes are better in Europe, with the DAX gaining 1.3% on 75% heavier volume than the last week. Over in Asia, the Nikkei gained 40bp and near Jan peaks as Abe reshuffled his cabinet - China data propels HK to biggest gain in a year - Sensex gained as the temperature in Pakistan cooled off - While Aussie finished in the red, weighed down by the Miners. Despite Rates higher, risk-embracement is lifting the EEM 1.5% early.
 The 10YY in the US continues its upward climb, gaining 4bp and testing 3week highs. Bund 10YY up 4bp as well, and the EUR is gaining against the $ ahead of ECB tomorrow and the Yen still near 1Y lows into the BOJ Friday. Keep an eye on Sterling into the BOE tomorrow, we saw heavy capital flows leave London yesterday on the Scottish independence poll. Gold is staging a small bounce after yesterday's smack, while Copper is under pressure on an investigation of the power grid in China. We are seeing Ukraine stress reversing, as Wheat and Palladium are getting hit, while Oil is catching a lift after yesterday's smackdown. Catalyst Calendar gets thick today - Brazil PMI at 9, at 10 we get the Bank of Canada Rate Decision along with US Online Help Wanted Index and Factory Orders. We have a small POMO at 11, and the Federal Reserve Beige Book at 2. We will be getting monthly auto sales figures throughout the session ahead of API Crude data tonight.

Here's A 10-Second Guide To What Traders Are Talking About This Morning

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>Coal stocks are getting absolutely smoked.
On Thursday, amid a huge broad-market sell off, no sector was taking it on the chin harder than coal stocks.
Among the big losers were Walter Energy, down 8%, Arch Coal, down 8%, Cliffs Natural Resources, down 10%, Peabody Energy, down 6.5%, and Alpha Natural Resources down 7.4%. 
And the 'KOL' Market Vectors ETF that tracks the coal sector was also down more than 3.4% on Thursday.
The broader energy sector is also under serious pressure Thursday, with the 'XLE' ETF that tracks the Energy Sector is down more than 3.3%. 
Thursday's moves in the coal sector market just the latest in what has been an absolutely brutal year for the sector.
The biggest loser is Walter Energy, which is down almost 90% year-to-date, and currently has a market cap of around $110 million, down from about $1.1 billion at the start of the year. 
The ugly action in Walter Energy also follows a move by analysts at Morgan Stanley on Wednesday to take their rating on the stock to Equal Weight from Overweight, writing that, "while evidence points to a bottom for coal prices, the recovery will likely take longer and be weaker than our previous forecasts," <a href="http://www.benzinga.com/analyst-ratings/analyst-color/14/10/4907438/walter-energy-inc-falls-amid-morgan-stanley-downgrade">according to Benzinga</a>.
And it appears that the whole coal sector is in an almost untenable financial position.
On Twitter, <a href="https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/520218635910905856">Conor Sen of New River Investments noted</a> that the combined market cap Arch Coal, Cliffs Natural, Alpha Natural, Peabody, and Walter Energy is $5 billion, while the total debt burden between those companies is $21 billion. 
Back in June, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/coal-stocks-falling-after-new-epa-proposal-2014-6">we highlighted weakness</a> among coal stocks after the EPA proposed regulations to cut carbon pollution from existing power plants. It has gotten much worse since then as the entire <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-dow-on-the-commodity-meltdown-2014-9">commodity sector</a> has taken an absolute bath over the last few months. 
Here's the year-to-date chart including all five of the aforementioned coal companies, which is really remarkable. The smallest decline is 47%.
<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>

In An Absolutely Brutal Day For The Market, Nothing Is Getting Slammed More Than Coal Stocks

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>A handful of traders are actually working today. JonesTrading's Dave Lutz has what they're chatting about.
Good Morning! Brief little note this AM, we are having a lazy Friday after Thanksgiving. Overseas markets are a bit weaker (DAX off 40bp) - but they seem to be just giving back some of yesterday's gains. Globally, Banks had a VERY strong day, gaining 2%+ in India, Japan and China, while they are mixed in US/UK. 
Stock Market Almanac notes last Trading Day of November, S&amp;P Up 6 of Last 7 
Brent Crude was trading yesterday, and lost ~6% on the News OPEC opted not to cut production - WTI re-opens for trading today in the USA, and it's marked off 6.5% this AM to new 4Y+ lows below $80. XOP, OIH and XLE will all have a very tough go this AM. Airlines should jump higher (Mostly up 4%+), while we could see flow of funds coming from the Rails. 
Watch the HY market - Energy makes up 15% of the sector, and with OPEC targeting putting the "weaker" US Energy plays out of business. That said, the US 10YY is testing the "Gundlach Floor" of 2.2%, but Germany's yields have taken out that Oct 15 "Flash Crash" low, so demand continues for Global Sov Debt. REITS, Utes and Staples will like this tailwind 
Gold is losing ground fast - finally getting exhausted attempting to break upside $1200/oz, and is off 50bp. Silver, where the street has finally gone Net Short - is off 3%. NUGT, GDX and GDXJ may have a tough day 
Retailers will be in focus as headlines come in from "Black Friday" sales (and Oil collapsing) 
Target.Com Says It Had Biggest Online Sales Day Ever Yday
Amazon Thanksgiving Comp. Sales Up 28.2%: Channel Advisor
Thanksgiving Online Sales Up 12.2% at 6pm: IBM Benchmark
IBM Says Online Sales From Nov. 24 to Nov. 25 up 8.8% Y/y
Wal-Mart Says &gt;22m Customers Visited Its Stores on Thanksgiving
Macy's CEO Says Outerwear Best-Selling Apparel Category
Finally, WTO adopted a Historic Trade Deal After Months-Long Standoff - <a href="http://www.npr.org/blogs/thetwo-way/2014/11/27/367046239/wto-members-approve-historic-trade-deal" target="_blank">$1T dollars and 21mln jobs</a> should be added to the world economy.

What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Energy Junk Bonds And Retailers...

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>JonesTrading's Dave Lutz has a roundup of what traders are chatting about right now.
Good Morning! US Futures are tracking higher, led by Tech and Biotech - but liquidity is expected to be light as Credit markets in US and Europe are closed today to honor Veteran's / Armistice Day commemorations. That said, Equity markets are trading well in Europe, with EuroStoxx up 60bp and the DAX climbing 40bp in heavier-than average volume. Financials are among your best performers, while globally commodity related industries remain under pressure - This was most evident in Asia, where Heavy falls in the biggest miners pushed Aussie lower as <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/citigroup-cuts-iron-ore-prices-2014-11">Citi slashes Ore targets to $60/ton average</a>. Shanghai retreated small from yesterday's gap higher on the HK trading link date being set, while Japan jumped 2% to 7Y highs on multiple tailwinds (Falling Yen, unexpectedly large current account surplus, chatter early elections to be called, and reports Abe is delaying the next tax hike). 
While Credit markets are closed, FX is trading - and the DXY is continuing yesterday's strength, The Greenback broke through ¥116 against the yen for the first time since October 2007. The Ruble under big pressure again, as fears of cease fire coming to an end in Ukraine intensify. Metals are all under pressure, led by a 80bp drop in Copper, dragging Gold down again. We are seeing continued weakness in the Energy complex, with Brent touching 4Y lows and WTI trying to recover from being off over 1% overnight - while Natty Gas continues to retreat from the week long squeeze we saw on the shorts. The Grains and Beans are continuing yesterday's pressure, despite the crop forecast being unexpectedly scaled back. It's a Holiday, so we have no scheduled catalysts today save ICSC-Goldman Sachs Chain Store Sales Index at 7:45, and Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index at 8:55 - U.S. Bond Markets are closed for Veterans Day / EU Bond Markets closed for Armistice Day 
Some trades I'll be watching today include Retailers, as "Singles Day" is a "Sell the News" for BABA - despite Alibaba selling more than 36.2 billion yuan ($5.9 billion) of merchandise within 14 hours of the promotion kicking off, eclipsing last year's record / Keep an eye on REITS - REITS outperformed the pop in Yields yesterday, and Overseas REITS are having a strong day, climbing 2.2% in Japan and 1.5% in London / Watch the Builders, as the #2 holding of the ITB reports (DHI, 10% weight) - ITB failed July peaks y'day - and of course keep an eye on the impact of the break lower in commodities, impacting Energy (XOP, XLE and OIH) - Metals (GDX/GDXJ) - and Grains/Beans (CROP, MOO, CORN)

What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? Metals...

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>JonesTrading's Dave Lutz has the run down of what traders are chatting about right now:
Good Morning, and Happy Fed Day - announcement at 2pm (No presser), Street expecting dovish and will retain the 'considerable time' language. Right now futures are off slightly, led by a 25bp drop in Nasdaq as FB off 7%, GILD 2% on #s. EU Stocks remain near 3week highs and the DAX is adding 70bp, and volume slightly better, but still 10% light to recent averages as Financials still see selling pressure from stress tests, with SX7E on lows, off 1.4%. Over in Asia, Russia's MICEX is up 70bp, despite the ruble falling to yet another low against the dollar - China popped 1.5% to 5week highs on reports the PBoC injected liquidity - Nikkei jumped 1.4% as Japanese IP came in better, and Aussie closes lower despite a bounce in the miners, as the big banks were under pressure. 
The 10YY is off small in the USA - more telling is the continued tightening of PIIGS paper to Bunds. The DXY remains just below 4Y highs, rallying above Y108 (watch for gaps from stops above 108.4), but losing ground small against Euro (Positioning trimming into Fed). Looking at some metrics into the Fed - US 5Y Breakevens still around 3Y lows, and Fed Fund Futures remain at Dec '15 for the 1st hike (Was Sept last meeting). We are finally seeing the Europeans and Asians buying Oil, with Brent and WTI up 1% into DOE inventories - More reports of heavy Chinese buying. Keep an eye on the worst energy commodity over the last week, Natty Gas, as contracts expire today, and reports are for possible snow this weekend in the Northeast (Crowded Short). Metals are mixed, and we continue to see the cover happening in Grains and Beans - both still very crowded shorts as well…. 
Scheduled catalysts include U.S. Housing Vacancies at 10, DOE data for Crude at 10:30, 1 $15B 2Y floater auction at 11:30, a $35B 5Y auction at 1, and the FOMC Rate Decision (No Presser) at 2. After the close, Brazil and New Zealand update interest rates. Some trades I'm watching for: DXJ/EWJ into Friday's BOJ economic assessment - expected to downgrade economy, putting the next consumption tax hike at risk - Bullish, but starting to get crowded // EUFN probably getting a bit washed out - PIIGS paper tightening to Bunds shows the Credit Market not worried about systemic risk from Stress tests // Keep watching the cover in Oil Stocks (OIH, XOP and XLE) - Total, Statoil both disappointed, but shares in rally mode // Builders (ITB) keep making legs over 200dma, and nearing high end of its recent range.

What Are Traders Chatting About Right Now? 'Considerable Time' And Natty Gas...

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>JonesTrading's Dave Lutz has a roundup of what traders are chatting about right now:
Good Morning! US Futures are mixed, with Nasdaq and Russell in the green, while the S&amp;P is off small. Overnight Macro headlines were relatively benign, save reports 3 Greek banks, 3 Italians, 2 Austrians, 1 Cypriot, 1 Portuguese and 1 Belgian set to fail stress tests (results Sunday) - That said, the EU Fins are holding a bid, with the SX7E in the green. The DAX is up 30bp, but volumes remain light on the content, with volumes down 25-50% to 5day averages (school holiday) - Financials seem to be the outperformers, while tobacco stocks are among the worst. Over in Asia, Russia's MICEX is off almost 1% as Ruble pressure continues as no resolution in the gas crisis developing. Most other Asian markets took their cue from strong US tech earnings, as Nikkei climbed 2.5% (still GPIF tailwinds) - Aussie popped 1% on benign inflation data as Banks outperformed again, and Strong tech helped Hang Seng jump 1.4%. Save Korea, volumes across Asia were roughly 20% light as well.
The US 10YY is under pressure, dropping below 2.2% as it follows Bund yields south (Citi saying 10Y bunds going to 65bp) - US Treasuries have been losing their bid later into the afternoon after the Euro players head home - so look for rates to possibly pop into the afternoon. The DXY is higher, gaining ground against Sterling on dovish BoE comments, and Euro hit as EU's Juncker pledges to unveil major investment plan this year. Despite the headwinds, commodities are generally higher, with Brent up 60bp and near session highs, Copper up 45bp - while the Grains and Beans are seeing continued covering.
Scheduled Catalysts today include MBA Mortgage Applications at 7:30, CPI at 8:30, Bank of Canada Rate Decision and Bank of Portugal's Neves speaks at 10, we have DOE data for Crude at 10:30. There is NO POMO at 11, but sometime before the opening we should get the AIA's Architecture Billings Index for September. While focus is on earnings, I'll be watching Tech today - YHOO up 3.5%, while TSLA, AAPL, FB seem to be holding yesterday's gains - while It will be important for Semis to build on yesterday's 3% gain. Airline stocks are retreating 1% after yesterday's surge, yet I saw no fresh Ebola headlines overnight, that's still a risk for the bulls. Homebuilders have surged higher, gaining over 10% in the last week, but the ITHB hit a wall at the 200dma - look for some profit taking. Finally we have been seeing sharp covering in OIH, XOP and XLE this week - Let's see how WTI acts into DOE today (3million barrel build expected) - now that contracts have rolled.

Here's A Quick Guide To What Traders Are Chatting About Right Now

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image">REUTERS/Shannon StapletonA trader smiles walking outside the energy options pit of the New York Mercantile Exchange October 17, 2008. </div></div></div>Dave Lutz of Stifel, Nicolaus has the topics people are talking about today.
US Futures are starting mixed this AM, with the S&amp;P higher, but Nasdaq in the red, firmly below the 100dma. Early, but the "New Tech" to "Old Tech" trade en fuego this AM, with FEYE and GRPN off 9%+, while EA is up almost 20%. Over in Europe, markets are being resilient as Ukraine stress abates (Russia's Micex up 1.5%), with the DAX basically unchanged in heavier volume into the ECB decision tomorrow. US Weakness and a disappointing Alibaba valuation hit Nikkei in it's first session open this week losing almost 3% in heavy trading, with major investor SoftBank hit for 5% on the lower Alibaba valuation (Watch YHOO) - Interesting the Momentum Index over there outperformed - losing less than 2%. China lost almost 1% in very light trading, as their Services number comes in slightly better. Aussie lost 1% in heavier trade - Profittaking in Aussie's banks ahead of earnings, and Miners were hit sharply as Ore is off 10% in a month. Globally, Banks are weaker on results from SocGen and HSBC - as well as continued regulatory angst and a flattening US curve, with flows continuing towards Energy, with the XLE trading on new all-time highs this AM. 
The US 10YY is off small ahead of Yellen climbing the steps of Capitol Hill this AM, but yields are well off overnight lows. The € is slightly weaker on the miss in German Factory Orders, while the Yen is on 3week peaks on hawkish BOJ minutes. The big FX mover overnight was the Kiwi getting whacked, as New Zealand's central bank has warned it may intervene to suppress kiwi strength. We have weakness in Industrial Metals, with Copper losing 40bp after failing the 50dma overnight. Gold is showing some pop, despite the bad Chinese consumption headlines out there. The Oil complex is higher into DOE inventories today - US stockpiles are foreseen to set new 32Y high. Scheduled Catalysts today include Nonfarm Productivity at 8:30, Fed's Yellen Testifies to Joint Economic Committee at 10, DOE data for Crude at 10:30, there is NO POMO at 11, we have a 10Y auction at 1, followed by Consumer Credit at 3pm. Before the US opening bell on Thursday, we will have digested interest rate decisions from the ECB, BOE, Indonesia and Malaysia

Here's A 10-Second Guide To What Traders Are Talking About Today

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image">BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Global</div></div>In the week ended October 30, investors poured another $12.4 billion into global equity funds - with $4 billion of the total going into long-only funds, according to the latest data from EPFR Global.
In a note to clients - titled "It's Getting Frothy, Man!" - BofA Merrill Lynch chief investment strategist Michael Hartnett writes, "Another $8-9 billion of inflows to long-only equity funds over next 2 weeks would trigger a contrarian 'sell' signal (Chart 2). Bullish investor flows dovetails with our Bull &amp; Bear Index, which is on course to trigger a cautionary risk- off signal in mid-November."
<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image on-image">BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, Bloomberg</div></div>In a Wednesday note to clients, Hartnett warned about the Bull &amp; Bear Index.
"A breach of the 8.0 level on our Bull &amp; Bear Index would make us more negative short term," wrote Hartnett. "Cash remains high, 4.4% in our October Fund Manager Survey, and needs to fall below 4.0% in the November survey to help trigger a tactical 'sell signal'."
Below is a complete breakdown of this week's flows, via Hartnett.
 
<div class="column">
Asset Class Flows 
Equities: $12.4bn inflows ($4bn via LO funds)
Bonds: $3.7bn outflows (outflows in 12 out of past 14 weeks)
Precious metals: $0.4 outflows (7 straight weeks)
MMF: second straight week of inflows post debt-ceiling resolution 
Equity Flows 
Europe: 18 straight weeks of inflows ($2.3bn)
Japan: 8 straight weeks of inflows 
US: $7.6bn inflows (majority via ETF's - SPY, XLP, XLE, QQQ) 
EM: modest outflows (first outflows in 4 weeks) 
By sector, chunky inflows to Energy ($1.4bn) and Consumer ($1.2bn); outflows from Utilities and Healthcare 
Fixed Income Flows 
Largest outflows from IG bond funds in 18 weeks ($3.3bn) (caveat: outflows concentrated in one fund)
71 straight weeks of inflows to floating-rate debt
8th straight week of inflows to HY bond funds ($1.6bn)
8th straight week of redemptions from govt/tsy funds
5 straight weeks of outflows from EM debt funds
29 straight weeks of outflows from TIPS
</div>

BofA: 'It's Getting Frothy, Man!'

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>JonesTrading's Dave Lutz has a roundup of what traders are chatting about right now:
Good Morning! US Futures are jumping higher, with the E-Minis rallying 1.6% from overnight lows to get back upside 200dma. The rally has been propelled by strong US earnings (TXN and AAPL have NDX up 1%), and headlines that the ECB is considering buying corporate bonds. We are having a strong session in Europe as Energy and Fins rally - The DAX has added 1.6%, but volumes remain light as many are on School Holiday in the Continent. The FTSE is lagging, held back by Tech as ARM's shares are off 5% on #s. Over in Asia, News of Russian-Ukraine progress in Natty talks has MICEX up 70bp - while Shanghai lost 70bp as China's GDP posts slightly light. Tokyo gave back ½ of Monday's 4.4% gain, Autos weak globally as China revises down Auto demand - While Aussie managed a slight pop as the A$ shrugs off China on hawkish RBA minutes. 
The Bid is coming out of German and US debt this morning, with US 10YY back upside of 2.2%, rallying 8bp from overnight lows. The DXY is stronger, catching a bid against Euro and Yen - The $/Y cross nearing another 107 test. With the Stringer Dollar, commodities have a headwind, but we are seeing Industrial metals like Copper in the green, while precious are holding a bid despite being off best levels of the overnight. All eyes remain on the energy complex, where Brent and WTI are both bid up as China Implied Oil demand popped - but they have been coming quickly off overnight highs. The worst performing commodity again is Coffee, as Ebola fears recede and the bean loses 12% over the last week. Scheduled Catalysts include expiry of the VIX and WTI spot contracts - the Johnson Redbook Retail Sales Index at 8:55, Existing Home Sales at 10 (ITB UP 5% in last 5 days), the week's biggest POMO at 11, and after the close we get API data for Crude, Gasoline and Distillates. 
There was Strong Growth Outperfromance yesterday, bulls would like to see followthrough in the face of light China data, and as Ebola headlines become less Dire - the Travel stocks are jumping again, with AAL, CCL and RCL all up 2%+ early. Keep an eye on the Builders, with the ITB jumping this last week into Existing Home Sales later this morning. Energy stocks will remain in focus, with XOP, OIH and XLE all starting to disconnect to the upside from the commodity. Robin Hood continues today - Best Ideas presentations: Robbins: 8:10am / Meister: 8:30am / Tilson: 10:30am / Chopra: 11:30am / Loeb: 1:45pm / Tepper: 3:35pm. Other notable speakers: Google's Schmidt: 11:15am / Barry Sternlicht: 2pm / Icahn, Lee Ainslie, Larry Fink at 4:10pm

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