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The Reserve Bank is unlikely to ease the benchmark policy rate from 6.5% during 2024, given the persisting uncertainty over <keyword id="19999654" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-inflation" source="keywords">food inflation</keyword>, State Bank of India (<keyword id="19898108" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SBI" source="keywords">SBI</keyword>) chairman C S Setty has recently said. The US Federal Reserve's first cut in <keyword id="20071327" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate" source="keywords">interest rate</keyword>s in more than four years happened today, triggering central banks in other economies to follow suit. The Fed trimmed the interest rates by 50 basis point trim to its target interest rate range to 4.75-5%. "On the rate front, a lot of central banks are taking independent calls. While Fed rate cut would influence everyone, <keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword> would be mindful of the food inflation before taking a call on interest rate cut," Setty, who recently took over the reins of the bank, was noted as saying. "Our view is also that the rate cut during the current calendar year may not happen. Probably, we may have to wait for Q4 (January-March 2025) unless there is a good improvement in terms of food inflation," he added. Notably, RBIs <keyword id="19913109" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Monetary-Policy-Committee" source="keywords">Monetary Policy Committee</keyword> (MPC), headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das is scheduled to meet next month, between October 7-9 and take a call on interest rate. The committee will largely take <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword>, which inched to 3.65% in August, up from 3.54% in July, into account for making rate-related decisions On the other hand, India's wholesale price index (WPI) eased to 1.31% on an annual basis, which is also a 4-month low, down from 2.04% in July. The data, released recently by the government, also highlighted the stickiness of food price inflation, which stood largely undeterred at 3.11% in August, as compared to 3.45% in July. Although WPI rates do not directly impact RBIs decision making, it does affect the retail inflation rates, although it takes time to reflect the same. Says Rahul Agrawal, Senior Economist at ICRA Ltd, “The <keyword id="20198768" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="keywords">WPI inflation</keyword> eased to a four-month low in August 2024, with the fuel and power, core (non-food manufacturing), and crude petroleum and natural gas sub-groups together pulling down the headline WPI print by as much as 70 bps in the month vis-à-vis July 2024. The core WPI inflation dipped to 0.7% in August 2024 from 1.2% in July 2024, amidst a continued softening in global commodity prices. "While prices of most food items have eased further on a month-on-month basis in September 2024, an adverse base would push up the YoY inflation prints for the primary food articles category significantly in the ongoing month, exerting upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation print for September 2024", said Agrawal. The price of the Indian basket of crude oil has averaged 6.0% lower in September 2024 on a sequential basis, touching the lowest levels in 33 months, which would also help contain the uptick in the headline WPI inflation print in the month. We anticipate WPI to touch the 2.0% in September 2024 from 1.3% in August 2024", he continued. Amongst the food articles whose prices dipped during the month were cereals (8.44%), paddy (9.12%), pulses (18.57%) and onions (65.75%), it did little to tame inflation, which continued to stay put in double digits. On the other hand, prices of potato (77.96%) and fruits (16.7%) inched up. The dip in WPI was largely led by slowdown in prices of manufactured food products (3.61%), beverages (1.9%), pharmaceuticals (1.97%) and petrol (4.23%). "While there may not be a one-to-one correspondence between the WPI and the CPI data because of the items, size, number, and relative weights assigned, the CPI data will also down-trend in sync with the RBI’s medium-term target of 4 % for the second time in nearly five years. However high food prices will induce the RBI to be wary", notes Manoranjan Sharma, Chief Economist, Infomerics Ratings.

RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

<keyword id="280418" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Wholesale-inflation" source="Orion">Wholesale inflation</keyword> in the country surged to a 16-month high of 3.36% in June on account of rise in prices of <keyword id="21654959" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food-articles" source="keywords">food articles</keyword>, especially <keyword id="19996547" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vegetables" source="keywords">vegetables</keyword> and manufactured items. This was the fourth consecutive month when <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> witnessed an upward journey. The wholesale price index (<keyword id="19936844" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI" source="keywords">WPI</keyword>) based inflation was 2.61% in May. It was (-) 4.18% in June 2023. Wholesale inflation had touched a high of 3.85% in February 2023."Positive rate of inflation in June, 2024 is primarily due to increase in prices of food articles, manufacture of food products, crude petroleum &amp; natural gas, mineral oils, other manufacturing etc," the Ministry of Commerce &amp; Industry said in a statement on Monday. As per the data, inflation in food articles rose 10.87% cent in June, as against 9.82% in May. Inflation in vegetables was 38.76% during June, up from 32.42% in May. Onion inflation was at 93.35%, while potato was 66.37% in the month under review. Pulses inflation rose 21.64% in June. During the month, inflation in other food items like fruits stood at 10.14%, cereals at 9.27%, and milk at 3.37%. The up move in the WPI inflation in June 2024 was broad-based, driven by all the major segments except fuel and power, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said. Looking ahead, she said, the headline WPI inflation is expected to dip to about 2% in July 2024, driven by a favourable base, as well as some cooling in global commodity prices. With regard to oil prices, she said, the average price of the Indian basket of crude oil has been quite volatile in July 2024 so far, on the back of supply-demand mismatches, witnessing a month-on-month rise (USD 86.6/bbl up to July 11). Higher crude oil prices might exert an upward pressure to the headline WPI inflation in the ongoing month, she added. In the fuel and power basket, inflation stood at 1.03%, marginally lower than 1.35% in May. However, price rise in crude petroleum &amp; natural gas was in double digit at 12.55%during the month. In manufactured products, inflation was at 1.43% in June, higher than 0.78% in May. The rise in June WPI was in line with the <keyword id="19999652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-inflation" source="keywords">retail inflation</keyword> data for the month. Retail inflation rose to a four-month high of 5.1% in June, data released last week showed. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="267" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rbi" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) mainly takes into account retail inflation while framing the monetary policy.

WPI inflation surges to 16-month high of 3.36% in June on costlier vegetables

As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

<keyword id="19896016" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="new-delhi" source="keywords">New Delhi</keyword>, The wholesale price index (WPI)-based <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> eased in January to 0.27 per cent, mainly due to moderation in prices of food items. <keyword id="244776" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wpi-inflation" source="Orion">WPI inflation</keyword> was at 0.73 per cent in December 2023. The WPI inflation was in the negative zone from April to October and had turned positive in November at 0.39 per cent. "The annual rate of inflation based on the All India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) number is 0.27 per cent (provisional) for the month of January, 2024 (over January, 2023)," the commerce and industry ministry said in a statement on Wednesday. Food inflation eased to 6.85 per cent in January, compared to 9.38 per cent in December 2023, data showed. Inflation in vegetables was 19.71 per cent in January, down from 26.3 per cent in the preceding month. The WPI inflation in pulses was at 16.06 per cent in January, while in fruits it was 1.01 per cent. The wholesale inflation in January 2023 was 4.8 per cent.

Wholesale inflation eases to 0.27% in January as food prices moderate

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, on Wednesday, congratulated Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) Governor, Shaktikanta Das for bagging an A+ grade rating in the Global Finance Central Banker Report Cards 2024. Prime Minister in a post on social media "X" said, "Congratulations to RBI Governor Shri @DasShaktikanta for this feat, and that too for the second time. This is a recognition of his leadership at the RBI and his work towards ensuring <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword> and stability." <keyword id="20850250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI-Governor-Das" source="keywords">RBI Governor Das</keyword> has been awarded the A+ grade rating for the second consecutive year. The Central Banker Report Cards, published annually by Global Finance since 1994, grade the central bank governors of nearly 100 key countries, territories, and districts, as well as the European Union, the Eastern Caribbean Central Bank, the Bank of Central African States and the Central Bank of West African States. Grades are based on an "A+" to "F" scale for success in areas such as <keyword id="21364628" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation-control" source="keywords">inflation control</keyword>, economic growth goals, currency stability and <keyword id="22859834" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="interest-rate-management" source="keywords">interest rate management</keyword>. "A" represents an excellent performance, down through "F" for outright failure. "Central bankers have waged war against <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">inflation</keyword> over the past few years, wielding their primary weapon: higher interest rates. Now, countries around the world are witnessing the tangible results of these efforts, as inflation has dropped significantly," said Global Finance founder and editorial director Joseph Giarraputo. The RBI has been successful in controlling the larger macroeconomic situations in the country. The apex bank is actively working to push economic growth through its <keyword id="20900764" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="monetary-policies" source="keywords">monetary policies</keyword>. The RBI recently kept the the <keyword id="20094323" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="repo-rate" source="keywords">repo rate</keyword> unchanged at 6.5 per cent after the deliberations of the Monetary Policy Commitee meeting earlier this month. The move reflects the central bank's cautious approach amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Announcing the monetary policy decisions, Das had said that the decision to keep the repo rate steady comes amidst persistent concerns about inflation, which remains above the RBI's target range. RBI Governor Das said that the inflation will moderate from July onwards as the monsoon has improved and global food prices have shown signs of easing in July. The Q1 <keyword id="19999655" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Consumer-Price-Index" source="keywords">Consumer Price Index</keyword> (CPI) inflation for the current financial year (2024-25) is projected at 4.5 per cent. CPI inflation for the first quarter of the next financial year (Q1 2025-26) is projected at 4.4 per cent, as announced by the RBI Governor. India's retail inflation, after breaching 5 per cent in June, softened drastically in July. In line with the moderation in retail inflation, wholesale inflation in India too witnessed a sharp decline in July. The annual rate of inflation based on all India Wholesale Price Index (WPI) numbers is 2.04 per cent (provisional) for July 2024 (over July 2023).

PM Modi congratulates RBI Governor Das on A+ rating in Global Finance Report

<keyword id="1977563" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Wholesale-price-based-inflation" source="Orion">Wholesale price-based inflation</keyword> rate declined by (-) 3.48 per cent in May, a 3-year low, on easing prices of food, fuel and manufactured items. The <keyword id="44428" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Wholesale" source="Orion">wholesale</keyword> price index (<keyword id="46000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="wpi" source="Orion">WPI</keyword>) based inflation rate has been in the negative territory for the second straight month. In April it was (-) 0.92 per cent. In May, 2022 <keyword id="244776" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation" source="Orion">WPI inflation</keyword> was at 16.63 per cent. The May, 2023 data print of (-) 3.48 per cent is the lowest WPI print recorded since May 2020, when wholesale inflation was at (-) 3.37 per cent. Inflation in food articles eased to 1.51 per cent in May, against 3.54 per cent in April. "Decline in the rate of inflation in May, 2023 is primarily contributed by fall in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, food products, textiles, <keyword id="8214359" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="non-food-articles" source="Orion">non-food articles</keyword>, crude petroleum &amp; natural gas, and chemical &amp; chemical products," the commerce and industry ministry said on Wednesday. Fuel and power basket inflation eased to (-) 9.17 per cent in May, from 0.93 per cent in April. In manufactured products, the inflation rate was (-) 2.97 per cent in the month under review, as against (-) 2.42 per cent in April. The deceleration in WPI comes in line with the easing of May retail inflation, which came in at an 25-month low of 4.25 per cent. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/volvo-c40-recharge-electric-car-launched-india-price-range-features/slidelist/100986326.cms">Volvo ups it's India EV game – C40 Recharge electric crossover with 530 km range launched</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/startups/news/fintech-saas-startup-cloudbankin-secures-400k-funding/articleshow/100987416.cms">Fintech SaaS startup Cloudbankin secures $400K funding</a>

WPI inflation declines to 3-year low of (-) 3.48% in May

<keyword id="6358777" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="new-delhi" source="Orion">New Delhi</keyword>, The wholesale price based inflation remained in the negative territory for the fourth straight month in July at (-)1.36 per cent on easing prices of fuel, even though food articles turned costlier. The wholesale price index (<keyword id="46000" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="wpi" source="Orion">WPI</keyword>) based inflation rate has been in the negative since April and was (-)4.12 per cent in June. In July last year it was 14.07 per cent. Inflation in food articles skyrocketed 14.25 per cent in July against 1.32 per cent in June. "Decline in the rate of inflation in July, 2023 is primarily contributed by fall in prices of mineral oils, basic metals, <keyword id="17700062" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="chemical-chemical" source="Orion">chemical &amp; chemical</keyword> products, textiles and food products," the commerce and industry ministry said on Monday. Fuel and power basket inflation eased to (-)12.79 per cent in July from (-)12.63 per cent in June. In manufactured products, the inflation rate was (-)2.51 per cent as against (-)2.71 per cent in June. The <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> last week kept interest rates unchanged at 6.5 per cent for the third straight meeting but signalled tighter policy if food prices drive inflation higher. "The job on inflation is still not done," RBI Governor <keyword id="6359111" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="shaktikanta-das" source="Orion">Shaktikanta Das</keyword> had said. "Inflationary risks persist amidst volatile international food and energy prices, lingering geopolitical tensions and weather-related uncertainties." The RBI raised its inflation forecast for the current financial year ending March 2024 to 5.4 per cent from 5.1 per cent earlier, citing pressures from food prices. The central bank takes into account retail or consumer price index based inflation for formulating monetary policy. Retail inflation data for July is scheduled to be released later in the day.

Wholesale inflation stays in negative for fourth month at -1.36% in July

New Delhi [India], January 16 (ANI): India's wholesale <keyword id="22195" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword> based on the <keyword id="59350" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Wholesale-Price-Index" source="Orion">Wholesale Price Index</keyword> for the month of December 2022 was at 4.95 per cent (provisional), against the previous month's 5.89 per cent, official data showed on Monday. In October, it was at 8.39 and has been falling since then. Notably, the wholesale price index (<keyword id="46000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wpi" source="Orion">WPI</keyword>)-based inflation had been in double digits for 18 months in a row till September. The decline in wholesale inflation in December was primarily due to a fall in prices of <keyword id="6181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="food" source="Orion">food</keyword> articles, mineral oils, crude petroleum and natural gas, food products, textiles and chemicals and chemical products, said the Ministry of Commerce and Industry while releasing the inflation data. Meanwhile, India's retail inflation during the month of December was at 5.72 per cent, data released last week showed. The latest figures showed a marginal decline and further moderation in retail inflation as compared with the previous month. India's retail inflation rate based on Consumer Price Index was 5.88 per cent in November from 6.77 per cent in October. Retail inflation in India had remained above 6 per cent till October for over three quarters, which was beyond RBI's comfort zone. RBI, in its fight against rising inflation, had already hiked the key policy rate by 225 basis points since May to 6.25 per cent to cool off domestic retail inflation that stayed above its upper tolerance limit for nearly three quarters. Raising interest rates typically cools demand in the economy, thereby putting a brake on inflation. The latest hike was on December 7 last year, when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the RBI increased the policy repo rate by 35 basis points, besides deciding to remain focused on the "withdrawal of accommodation" of monetary policy to ensure that inflation remains within the target going forward while supporting economic growth. The next three-day RBI monetary policy meeting is scheduled for February 6-8. (ANI) SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/international/news/india-in-best-position-to-be-a-bridge-between-debt-ridden-developing-countries-and-g20-says-sl-president/articleshow/97007124.cms">India in best position to be a bridge between debt-ridden developing countries and G20, says SL President</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/indias-richest-1-own-more-than-40-of-total-wealth-oxfams-survival-of-the-richest-report/articleshow/97018110.cms">India's richest 1% own more than 40% of total wealth: Oxfam's Survival of the Richest report</a>

WPI inflation cools further to 4.95% in December as food and crude oil prices fall

The wholesale price-based inflation eased to a 29-month low of 1.34 per cent in March on easing prices of manufactured products and fuel items, even though food articles turned costly. March is the 10th straight month when wholesale price index (<keyword id="46000" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="wpi" source="Orion">WPI</keyword>) based inflation has declined. The inflation was 3.85 per cent in February and 14.63 per cent in March 2022. Inflation in food articles, however, rose to 5.48 per cent in March as against 3.81 per cent in February. "Decline in the rate of inflation in March 2023 is primarily contributed by fall in prices of basic metals, food products, textiles, non-food articles, minerals, <keyword id="17166518" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rubber-plastic" source="Orion">rubber &amp; plastic</keyword> products, crude petroleum &amp; natural gas and paper and paper products," the commerce and industry ministry said on Monday. Inflation in wheat and pulses was 9.16 per cent and 3.03 per cent, respectively while in vegetables it was (-)2.22 per cent. Inflation in oilseeds was (-)15.05 per cent in March 2023. Fuel and power basket inflation eased to 8.96 per cent last month from 14.82 per cent in February. In manufactured products, inflation was (-)0.77 per cent as against 1.94 per cent. The deceleration in WPI comes in line with the easing of March retail inflation. Consumer price index-based retail inflation declined to a 15-month low of 5.66 per cent in March from 6.44 per cent in February. In its monetary policy review earlier this month, the <keyword id="30067" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="rbi" source="Orion">RBI</keyword> cautioned that adverse climatic conditions are a risk to the future inflation trajectory and predicted milk prices to remain firm going into the summer due to tight demand-supply situation and fodder cost pressure. The central bank also paused the interest rate hike, holding the benchmark rate at 6.50 per cent. It projected retail inflation to average 5.2 per cent in the current fiscal year. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/blackstone-backed-nexus-select-trust-plans-to-double-shopping-mall-portfolio-in-4-5-yrs/articleshow/99550268.cms">Blackstone-backed Nexus Select Trust plans to double shopping mall portfolio in 4-5 yrs</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/sports/news/faith-thomas-the-nurse-turned-fast-bowler-was-the-first-aboriginal-woman-to-play-cricket-in-australia/articleshow/99551582.cms">Faith Thomas: The nurse-turned-fast bowler was the first Aboriginal woman to play cricket in Australia</a>

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RBI unlikely to cut interest rate in 2024, food inflation to be deciding factor, says SBI chief Setty

Ira Alok Puranik