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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Oil prices ended down 7% last week and are lower this year-to-date, despite Middle East tensions.</li><li>China's economic downturn, the US shale boom, and clean energy are contributing to current oil price trends.</li></ul>The oil markets aren't what they used to be, and two of the world's biggest producers of the commodity are feeling the pressure.Oil prices have been depressed this year because <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/oil-price-today-middle-east-israel-hezbollah-conflict-china-economy-2024-10">China</a> — the world's largest oil importer — is in a prolonged economic downturn. The US' massive boom in oil production over the last 15 years has also kept prices low.Now, Saudi Arabia and Russia are both trying to diversify their economies away from energy, which makes up about 40% and 20% of their GDP, respectively.With the shift, Saudi Arabia and Russia are trying to create new economic engines that can sustain the country for decades, Abishur Prakash, the founder of The Geopolitical Business, a strategy advisory firm in Toronto, told Business Insider.The existential reorientation comes amid what Prakash terms a "geopolitical misalignment," even in the face of a potential supply disruption."The reality is that Middle Eastern oil supplies are in the bull's-eye of geopolitics. A potential back-and-forth between Israel and Iran, which is increasingly likely, will draw in the region's energy ecosystem," he said.But this year, markets have largely shrugged off supply concerns stemming from the Middle East conflict — a break from history, when regional problems sent prices higher.<h2 id="45bcbf13-524d-48a5-aa00-144efa7dd75c">Moving away from oil</h2><a target="_blank" href="https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=709&amp;t=6.">Saudi Arabia and Russia</a> tied for the world's second-largest oil producer after the US. Last year, they each accounted for 11% of the world's oil supply.While Saudi Arabia and Russia are still the world's top oil exporters, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=61584">US — which posted record oil shipments in 2023 — is fast becoming a competitor</a> for market share.In 2016, Saudi Arabia launched a grand <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vision-2030-saudi-arabia-plan-future-proof-oil-economy-2023-8">Vision 2030</a> plan to transform its oil-dependent economy into a more diversified one that includes tourism and sports as key growth pillars.Recently, the kingdom has been indicating that it's frustrated with low oil prices. It's giving up its $100 per barrel price target and is ready to increase oil output, the <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/1d186f62-5941-4f9e-aef1-7d93a8a696cd">Financial Times</a> reported in late September.This means that Saudi Arabia is looking to corner a larger market share instead of targeting higher profit margins by restricting output.Russia has also expressed a desire to stop over-relying on oil exports."We are moving towards reducing the share of volatile income and reducing Russia's dependence on oil and gas in favor of boosting our domestic economy," Anton Siluanov, Russia's finance minister, told <a target="_blank" href="https://russian.rt.com/business/article/1379636-minfin-anton-siluanov-intervyu">RT Television's Arabic</a> service earlier this month.He said that Russia would instead aim to boost its domestic economy but did not specify how.Russia is already moving its trade eastward to address Western sanctions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.energyintel.com/00000192-ae46-dc01-adba-efff87000000">Saudi Arabia,</a> too, is looking to sell more oil to developing countries, whose electric vehicle adoption lags behind China and the West.Asia's emerging economies are expected to drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/global-oil-demand-prices-supply-opec-us-crude-producers-iea-2024-6">global oil demand</a> over the rest of the decade, as the world's consumption rises from 101.7 million barrels a day in 2023 to 105.6 million barrels per day by 2030, according to a June report from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.iea.org/news/slowing-demand-growth-and-surging-supply-put-global-oil-markets-on-course-for-major-surplus-this-decade">International Energy Agency</a>.<h2 id="6ae61431-8898-4c52-9abf-24b4a2055996">Prices, renewable energy, and the US all play a role</h2>Despite geopolitical tensions in the Middle East over fears of a widening war, oil prices haven't been on the climb.To be sure, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-prediction-brent-crude-israel-iran-opec-demand-citi-2024-10">oil prices could still</a> soar if the issues in the Middle East worsen.And there were several price spikes — such as in early October over concerns that Iranian oil facilities could be hit and in August over tensions in the Middle East — but they were shortlived. Oil prices dropped about 7% last week after the concerns subsided.International benchmark <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent</a> crude futures are down about 4% this year to date to around $74 a barrel, and US <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">West Texas Intermediate</a> futures are down 1.3% so far this year to around $70 a barrel.A key contributor to the price trend comes from the US, which has witnessed a significant rise in oil production over the last 15 years following the shale oil boom.Matthew Huber, a Syracuse University professor who specializes in energy, climate politics, and resource geography, said the US has nudged Saudi Arabia out of its role as a swing producer."I think the US has now overtaken this role and because we're not in the Middle East, geopolitical conflict there is less impactful," Huber added.Then there's renewable energy."The explosion of electric vehicle adoption in China (and presumably or eventually in the US and Europe) means the writing is on the wall and we're going to reach 'peak demand' for oil sometime soon," said Huber. "It was always a good idea to diversify one's economy away from just oil but now more than ever."<h2 id="f0b0eb00-b6b7-4f2f-9acd-d2d555ca6010">The role of OPEC</h2>The changing dynamics of oil also sharpens the long-standing question of OPEC's influence and relevance. The oil producer group led by Saudi Arabia accounts for about 30% of global crude production."It goes in cycles. They were obviously relevant in the 1970s when they were able to increase prices almost single-handedly," said Huber."But the problem is when oil prices spike, it sends oil companies searching for temporarily profitable oil," he added, referring to the US shale boom as the most recent example.OPEC also faces rifts within its members, who have competing priorities."The big question now is whether OPEC members are all aligned in terms of oil targets," said The Geopolitical Business's Prakash, who added that not all OPEC members may be on board with Saudi Arabia's plan to boost production.A potential Trump presidency in the US could drive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-election-impact-trump-win-election-financials-energy-rbc-2024-10">domestic oil and gas production.</a>"If OPEC can't bring everybody together, and members go their separate ways, it will lead to a further polarization of the Middle East," said Prakash."Instead of energy bringing the region together, like it did in the past, energy coupled with geopolitics could fragment the Middle East," he said.

2 of the world's biggest oil producers are looking for new ways to power their economies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Jamie Dimon warns rising geopolitical tensions could weaken the global economy and stock markets.</li><li>Dimon highlights wars, energy supply risks, and deteriorating international relations as key threats.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> CEO Jamie Dimon warned that investors are overlooking a key risk that could significantly weaken the global economy and stock markets over the next century.It's not inflation, a recession, or AI taking over humanity; rather, it's rising geopolitical tensions that have already flared up into armed conflicts around the world."Geopolitics is getting worse, they are not getting better. There is chance for accidents in energy supply. God knows if other countries get involved. You have a lot of war taking place right now," Dimon told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-geopolitics-is-getting-worse.html">CNBC-TV18</a> during a visit to India on Tuesday.The rising geopolitical tension is Dimon's "biggest caution" and dwarfs all other visible risks to the economy. Dimon is especially worried about the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine.In an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LHT6yB6RFYc">interview last week</a> at the 2024 Financial Markets Quality Conference, Dimon was even sharper in his warning to investors."The most important thing that dwarfs all other things, that's really important, far more important today than it's been probably since 1945, is this war in Ukraine, what's going on in Israel in the Middle East, America's relation with China, and the attack fundamentally on the rule of law that was set up after World War II," Dimon said.Dimon continued, noting that an "evil axis" of countries threatens global economic stability."It's threat of nuclear blackmail. Iran, North Korea, and Russia I think you can legitimately call an evil axis. They're working every day on how to make it worse for the Western world and for America," Dimon said.He added: "This may affect the free and democratic world for the next 100 years and I think that's the most important thing. I think people overly focus on a soft landing, hard landing, honestly most of us have been through all of that stuff, it doesn't matter as much."As for China, while Dimon said it doesn't see them as part of the evil axis, he does believe <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">they are on the "wrong side" of the global tensions.</a>China has increased its trade with Russia since the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war in February 2022, and they have friendly economic ties with Iran.Ultimately, what's bad for the global economy is also bad for stock markets.Dimon said that if geopolitical tensions elevate to instability and conflict, it will drag down the stock market in a way that pales in comparison to prior market crashes."If it really goes south, obviously it will affect markets like you've never seen," Dimon warned.The antidote to the problem, according to Dimon, is strong leadership."It takes really strong American leadership and Western world leadership to do something about it," Dimon said.

Jamie Dimon says an 'evil axis' of countries threatening war is the biggest risk to the world economy in the next century

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's stimulus isn't enough to stem slowing GDP growth, the World Bank said this week.</li><li>Neighboring countries will see their growth contract after years of positive spillover effects.</li></ul>China's stimulus measures aren't enough to stem the decline of its economic fortunes, and the troubles facing the world's second-largest economy will also be a drag on its neighbors, a new report from the World Bank finds.The report, released Tuesday, says that China's outsized growth has had positive spillover effects on nearby developing economies for years. Yet, as China's growth slows amid a struggling economy and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stimulus-fix-economy-xi-jinping-stock-market-2024-10">tepid stimulus efforts</a>, those countries will also see growth contract.The bank forecasts China's economic growth will slow to 4.3% next year, down from a forecasted 4.8% for 2024. Growth in East Asia and the Pacific, meanwhile, will slow to 4.4% in 2025 from about 4.8% this year as a result."For three decades, China's growth has spilled over beneficially to its neighbors, but the size of that impetus is now diminishing," the group said.The authors point in particular to developing economies in East Asia, which benefited from increasing demand from China for imports even as it competed heavily as an exporter of goods. China's neighbors saw positive spillover effects from increased Chinese demand for commodities and services and from the relocation of Chinese production to those countries, the report says.The authors estimate that a 1% increase in China's GDP per-capita growth was associated with a 0.13% increase in GDP per-capita in emerging markets between 2020 and 2023.But now, with China's domestic demand stuck in low gear, its neighbors will feel the impact of China's export strength more drastically."If China's exports grow faster than its imports, as has continued to be the case in manufacturing and overall trade, then the negative impact of increased competition may outweigh the positive impact of demand enhancement in international markets," the report says.It says that a one percent slowdown in China's growth could reduce GDP growth in neighboring developing economies by as much as 0.21%.The report from the World Bank comes shortly after officials in Beijing announced a round of stimulus measures last month, vowing to rescue the economy from a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-housing-market-real-estate-crash-investors-outlook-construction-2024-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">struggling property sector</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*arxr6l*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODMwODIxNC4yMjkuMS4xNzI4MzA4MzIyLjQxLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">weak consumer demand</a>.The measures, which included lower interest rates and liquidity support, plus <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chinese-property-stocks-homebuying-restrictions-stimulus-shanghai-gdp-2024-9?_gl=1*1lm342a*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODMwODIxNC4yMjkuMC4xNzI4MzA4MjE0LjYwLjAuMA..&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">relaxed restrictions on homebuying</a>, fueled a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-stock-market-rally-economy-stimulus-liqudity-overwhelm-system-2024-9?_gl=1*1a7ytxc*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODM5NjQwNS4yMzguMS4xNzI4Mzk2NTM4LjU5LjAuMA..">stock market rally</a> in the country and abroad as investors cheered any indication of future growth after months of downbeat data. However, the World Bank warns that the measures are still undefined, which makes it tough to calculate their impact on China's growth.Aaditya Mattoo, the World Bank's East Asia and Pacific chief economist, said the stimulus measures' fiscal impact has yet to be determined."The question is whether [the stimulus] can actually offset consumer concerns about declining salaries, concerns about declining property incomes and fears about falling ill, growing old, becoming unemployed," Mattoo said in a Tuesday interview with CNBC.Mattoo added that China will need to implement deeper structural reforms to see any long-term growth, but that the rest of the region will still welcome the stimulus efforts since it's so dependent on the country for growth.In the meantime, the rest of the region will "need to strengthen domestic drivers of growth by implementing long-deferred deeper reforms" to see growth independent of China, the report says.China's officials previously said the country is targeting "around 5%" growth for this year. In recent months, economists have increasingly said that goal <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-growth-targets-axa-investment-property-sector-industrial-production-2024-9">is out of reach</a>.

China's growth will fizzle next year despite stimulus efforts, and its issues will drag down neighboring economies, World Bank says

The Gig Economy in a Post-Pandemic World

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's export growth slowed in September, raising concerns about future economic stability.</li><li>The slowdown is attributed to weakening external demand and logistical disruptions.</li></ul>China's economy hasn't been doing great for a while, but the manufacturing giant could always <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7">count on its exports.</a>Now, those exports may be in jeopardy even before the US presidential election in November — the results of which could hit those goods even more.In September, China exported $303.7 billion worth of goods, which was 2.4% higher than a year ago, official data released Monday showed. The market had expected China's exports to grow 6% on-year in September, according to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-sept-export-growth-hits-5-month-low-global-demand-cools-2024-10-14/">Reuters' poll</a> of economists.The growth was the lowest in five months and much slower than the 8.7% logged in August.The slowdown was across the board, with exports to Japan and South Korea contracting from a year ago. Shipments to the US and EU grew just 2.2% and 1.2%, respectively.Economists attributed the slowdown to weakening external demand.Lu Daliang, a spokesperson for China's General Administration of Customs, said in a statement at a Monday press conference that the slowdown in export growth was due to bad weather, logistical disruptions, and a high base from last year.Even so, the magnitude of the decline was "clearly larger than expected," said economists at Nomura.<h2 id="b6988c60-f06b-415a-b8d1-5a9c136a9662">China is already bogged by poor consumer confidence</h2>China's September export data print is concerning because the country has been dragged by dismal consumer confidence. But it has been supported by robust demand from international buyers, which boosted exports.The world's second-largest economy is facing multiple headwinds including a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation — and September's data showed that it may have more obstacles ahead."While one month of data does not make a trend, sustained export weakness would mean that China is losing an important buffer against domestic demand weakness," wrote economists at BofA Securities on Monday.China's September imports also fell short of expectations, growing just 0.3% from a year ago — slower than the 0.5% increase it posted in August.The timing of the decline in China's exports also came at an untimely moment — weeks before the US presidential election.Republican candidate <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-impose-tariffs-china-if-elected-2024-2">Donald Trump</a> said in February he would slap tariffs of over 60% on China if he wins the election.This year alone, the US and the EU have already hiked tariffs on Chinese imports, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-electric-vehicles-share-price-europe-tariff-hike-overcapacity-investors-2024-6">electric vehicles.</a> The regions say China's dumping and unfair trade practices have hurt their economies. Beijing has rejected this view, saying the West's accusations are protectionist and aimed at containing China's economic growth.Economists expect Beijing to roll out more measures to prop up growth, which it is targeting around <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-two-sessions-growth-goal-challenging-economists-2024-3">5% this year.</a> Authorities announced <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">aggressive monetary stimulus</a> in late September — which many analysts said was not enough to boost China's troubled economy.On Saturday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://www.mof.gov.cn/zhengwuxinxi/caizhengxinwen/202410/t20241012_3945410.htm">China's finance ministry</a> flagged more fiscal stimulus at a press conference but did not disclose the amount of money it would involve, keeping the markets guessing.Meaningful action may only come later in the year as Beijing is aiming to "gradually put a floor in place" rather than supercharge the economy at one go, Rory Green, the chief China economist at GlobalData.TS Lombard wrote in a note last week.China may be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-stimulus-intervention-delay-donald-trump-presidential-eleciton-tariffs-2024-9">holding back on economic stimulus</a> ahead of the US presidential election, Green added.This is because it's keeping its powder dry in case Republican candidate Donald Trump wins in the November polls, Green wrote in a separate September note."The chance of a Trump victory and 60% tariffs on all Chinese exports to the US puts the onus on Beijing to hold back on stimulus in case it needs to drive growth in 2025," Green wrote.

Even the strongest pillar of the Chinese economy is showing signs of weakness

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Last month, the Fed joined a slew of central banks in easing monetary policy.</li><li>That's led the market to assume rates will fall to pre-pandemic lows, BofA's Bernard Mensah says.</li></ul>The Federal Reserve joined other central banks in easing monetary policy last month, but that doesn't mean rates are returning to ultra-low levels see in the years before the pandemic, Bank of America's Bernard Mensah said. Mensah, the bank's head of international operations, pointed to a range of factors that could boost inflation, like shifting supply chains, rising wages, and geopolitical risks."My instinct has been that all of those things add inefficiencies in the system, and as we're moving to a different, perhaps, type of globalization, that we might find that the underlying trend inflation rate is a little bit higher than before," Mensah said in a Wednesday interview with Bloomberg TV.Mensah's comments come amid a flurry of rate cuts from central banks in the US, China, the EU, England, Switzerland, Sweden, Canada and Mexico, among others.Those rate cuts have led the market to expect US interest rates will dip as low as they were before the pandemic, Mensah says."There are bits of the market that do assume that rates will trend back to where we were pre-COVID or soon after that," Mensah said. He adds that the terminal rate may actually be 150 basis points above that.Before the pandemic, in the decade following the Great Financial Crisis, interest rates remained at historical lows. However, as inflation soared, the Fed hiked its benchmark interest rate aggressively, initiating its first move to loosen monetary policy last month with a 50 basis point rate cut. Despite the Fed's apparent confidence that pricing pressures have eased, Mensah says a variety of inflationary risks will keep interest rates higher. "I personally have been worried just about the underlying inflationary pressures that are out there for a bunch of reasons, whether its COVID, whether its supply chain moves," he said.He also pointed to inflationary shocks like the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/port-strike-could-wreck-us-economy-with-price-increases-scarcity-2024-10">US port strike</a>, which started on Tuesday and is expected to continue for weeks.Mensah says the port workers' wage demands, as well as increasing wages for workers around the world, add further inflationary pressure.Finally, he noted geopolitical risks, which he says have weakened the dollar's value as global markets have priced in new developments."I do think the market is trying to be alert to events that are happening on the horizon," Mensah said, adding there's been a dollar weakening versus the euro and British pound in broad foreign exchange markets."You can make some arguments for that. So I think the market is poised for challenges that are ahead," he said.Other analysts have also pointed to inflation risks from geopolitical conflicts.Last month, T. Rowe Price analyst Tomasz Wieladek said that even though trade openness has encouraged inflation stability, ongoing conflicts could mean globalization is at risk in the coming years. That could <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-central-banks-will-be-fighting-high-inflation-for-years-2024-9">drive up global inflation</a>, he said.

Rates won't fall back to pre-pandemic levels as geopolitical conflict and supply chain issues create problems for world economies, BofA exec says

Union Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted India's significant progress in electrification, <keyword id="23692737" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="water-accessibility" source="keywords">water accessibility</keyword>, and <keyword id="20879840" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-empowerment" source="keywords">economic empowerment</keyword> during a fireside chat with John J Hamre, President and CEO of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington, DC. Highlighting the progress made in <keyword id="23003732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-electrification" source="keywords">rural electrification</keyword>, <keyword id="19916494" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sitharaman" source="keywords">Sitharaman</keyword> highlighted that every village in India now has access to electricity. She noted that in 2014, many villages across India, including those near state capitals, lacked even basic infrastructure for electrification. She said "I don't think any village in India is unelectrified today. Households have received the connections. So, if I remember the situation in 2014, there were still many villages in many parts of India, some even very close to the state capital, provincial headquarters, without even a pole to receive the electric wires. Now, all that has been overcome. Houses have got their electricity." The Finance Minister also discussed the <keyword id="19971121" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Jal-Jeevan-Mission" source="keywords">Jal Jeevan Mission</keyword>, a program initiated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi to provide tap water connections to every household. She explained, "Earlier, one tap water connection was provided to a village, from where everyone would take water to their home. But under the 'Jal Jeevan Mission,' each and every house gets a tap water connection." Sitharaman emphasized the positive impact of this initiative on health, sanitation, and convenience for millions of Indian families. Turning to the economic empowerment of <keyword id="20101496" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="municipalities" source="keywords">municipalities</keyword> and urban centers, Sitharaman noted that these local governments are receiving increased autonomy and financial support. She explained that municipalities receive a portion of taxes collected by the central government, along with additional funds based on the Finance Commission's recommendations. "Over and above, today, we are enhancing their capacities to raise resources from the market. Municipalities are a very powerful instrument of economic development and they, on their own, are raising a lot of resources," she added. Sitharaman also expressed confidence in India's economic growth and its appeal to <keyword id="20632552" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-investors" source="keywords">global investors</keyword>. "The policies are working, reforms are happening, and they shall continue to happen," she stated, adding that "greater liberalisation of the economy will be there and, in a way, we are accessing newer markets and speaking about the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> in more avenues and platforms that will attract more investors." With ongoing reforms and increased global engagement, Sitharaman noted, India is solidifying its position as a significant player on the world stage, expanding its economic reach and inviting foreign investment.

No village in India left without access to electricity, claims FM Nirmala Sitharaman

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Spy mania in Russia has created an environment that's stifling innovation, sources told BI.</li><li>Arrests for treason in Russia have soared, human rights experts said.</li></ul>Ivan Pavlov, a Russian-born lawyer who now lives in Europe, was 51 was he was forced to leave his home country. After years of representing Russians who had been accused of treason, he was put on the nation's wanted list and labeled as a "foreign agent" in 2021 — a term that, in Russia, is equated with spy, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.hrw.org/news/2022/12/01/russia-new-restrictions-foreign-agents">Human Rights Watch</a>.Eventually, he knew he had to flee, he told Business Insider in an interview."All my professional life was in Russia," he said. "My family was inside Russia and it was a huge [suffering]."The arrest of accused "spies" has risen dramatically since Moscow began its invasion of Ukraine, Pavlov and other human rights experts told BI.That could end up having a big knock-on effect on Russia's already-weakened economy. Possible impacts include decreased investment, decreased consumption, and slower growth as Russia shifts away from a capitalistic society, Richard Portes, an economist from the London Business School, says."You do have an inhibition on risk-taking, innovation," Portes told BI on the intensifying pursuit of foreign agents in Russia. "For those who remain, you're not going to get any dynamic economic activity. Aside from the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">brain drain</a>, aside from the drain of young people, you're not going to get any innovation. And I think that's the medium-term consequence of all this: disastrous."Sergei Guriev, another economist who was deemed a "foreign agent" by the Russian government, agrees the crackdown on perceived security threats could hurt the country economically.He used the example of Russia recently <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-arrests-3-hypersonic-missile-scientists-for-treason-2023-5">arresting some of its missile scientists</a>, which has made others in the scientific community fearful of publishing new research, he said."We can expect that it should impact economic growth," he added, though he noted the effect may not be immediately felt.Russia's economy is showing some signs that the kind of risk-taking associated with innovation and entrepreneurship is on the decline. Innovation in Russia has fallen behind the nation's level of development, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wipo.int/web-publications/global-innovation-index-2024/assets/67729/2000%20Global%20Innovation%20Index%202024_WEB2.pdf">2024 ranking</a> from the World Intellectual Property Organization. Patent filings fell 13% in Russia in 2022, while patent filings from foreign applicants dropped 30%, according to data from the <a target="_blank" href="https://rospatent.gov.ru/content/uploadfiles/otchet-2023.pdf">Russian Patent Office</a>.Russia minted just 240,458 new LLCs in 2022, about half of the number of new companies that registered in 2015, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/entrepreneurship">World Bank entrepreneurship</a> database.Private investment in Russia is also down. Private equity and venture capital-backed M&amp;A deals and funding rounds in Russia dropped around 39% from 2022 to 2023, with the nation seeing just <a target="_blank" href="https://www.spglobal.com/marketintelligence/en/news-insights/latest-news-headlines/2-years-on-private-capital-flees-russia-builds-slowly-in-ukraine-80421379">$1.4 billion</a> of those types deals last year, according to S&amp;P Global data. Merger and acquisition deal value as a whole also dropped 71% to $6.41 billion, down from $22.48 billion the prior year.<a target="_blank" href="https://rosstat.gov.ru/storage/mediabank/132_28-08-2024.html">Corporate profits</a> in Russia also dropped around 6% in the first half of the year in 2024. Meanwhile, profits from Russia's professional, scientific, and technical activities dropped around 19% over the first half of this year compared to the same period a year ago, Rosstat data shows.These outcomes are partly influenced by a more restrictive environment in Russia, Portes said, in addition to some of Moscow's other challenges, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">high inflation</a> and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">flight of some of its most educated</a> workers."The longer-term consequences, the medium-term consequences, are hollowing out [the economy]," he said. "It's very sad, but that's what it is."<h3 id="c673f304-1ae4-43f5-81a2-d4145eb78dc1">Moscow's spy mania</h3>The number of Russians being accused of treason has skyrocketed in recent years, Guriev says. He estimates that over 100 people each year are now being arrested for treason. That's likely because Russia's government is focused on creating an "atmosphere of fear," and "paralyzing resistance" amid the war in Ukraine, Pavlov said.Constant fear of persecution doesn't mix with a capitalistic society, Portes says."The thing about capitalism — capitalism has its defects for sure — but it works because it gives incentives to people to take risks," he said. "The circumstances of a country that's like what Russia is right now, the incentive to take risks, there is a strong disincentive".Other experts have noted that Russia looks to be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-ukraine-war-tech-reverse-industrialization-central-bank-finland-2023-3">drifting away</a> from a capitalist structure, particularly as it boosts public spending to fund its war efforts in Ukraine.Previously, Portes predicted that Russia was on its way to being reduced to a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-ukraine-war-worker-shortage-population-brain-drain-2024-8">natural resource economy</a>." That could lead to a lower quality of life for Russians, he predicted, hitting the nation with sluggish economic growth and a decline in everything from education to medical care.Moscow's economy isn't necessarily at risk of collapse, thanks to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">hefty government spending on the war</a>, Portes says, though he still sees a dark economic future ahead of the nation."It's a disaster. We have plenty of examples in history where a war economy can keep on going, even though everything is crumbling around it. And I think that's what you have now," he added.

How national security panics in Russia could stifle innovation and hurt its economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's war economy ins't in imminent danger of collapse, economist Vladislav Inozemstev said.</li><li>That's because Russia has adapted to the war and looks more stable than it did a few years ago.</li></ul>Russia may stand a better chance at sustaining its war economy than previously thought.That's according to Vladislav Inozemstev, an exiled Russian economist who thinks the chances of an economic collapse in the country have dwindled despite the chorus of experts who predicted a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-crisis-ukraine-war-moscow-inflation-sanctions-putin-spending-2024-10">grim</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-putin-inflation-labor-shortage-rates-2024-5">economic</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">future</a>.Inozemstev, who has been critical of Putin's regime and left Russia after being labeled as a "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-business-national-security-treason-spying-2024-10">foreign agent</a>" in 2023, said the nation's trajectory looked similar to the Axis Powers in the 1930s, when the group of nations rose to prominence partly due to their "highly effective market economies," he wrote in a recent <a target="_blank" href="https://www.memri.org/reports/russias-economic-prospects-2025-and-beyond">op-ed</a> published by the Middle East Media Research Institute. The comparison suggests that Russia will be able to sustain its war-driven economy for longer than many expected, he said, dismissing the notion that Russia was headed for a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-economy-soviet-union-spending-workers-flee-imf-2024-2">Soviet Union-style</a> collapse."The war, formally an 'emergency,' has been rethought as a 'new normal' that can be waged indefinitely. Even though many experts are still talking about the aggravating slowdown in Russia, the Kremlin is mostly right: These days, the economy is the Russian dictator's reliable rear," Inozemstev said. "To conclude, I would argue that Russia seems to have become a long-term threat to the Western world whose chance of economic collapse is extremely small," he later added.Russia's finances appear to have stabilized since the early days of the war, when even the Kremlin <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-collapse-putin-moscow-gdp-outlook-ukraine-war-sanctions-2023-11">admitted the economy was on the verge of collapse</a>.Federal revenue has exceeded expectations for the past several years, Inozemstev noted, rising 28% on an annual basis from the months of January and October, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://interfax.com/newsroom/top-stories/107508/">Interfax</a>. Russia also posted a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/russia-records-budget-surplus-01-gdp-jan-sept-2024-2024-10-09/#:~:text=MOSCOW%2C%20Oct%209%20(Reuters),Finance%20Ministry%20said%20on%20Wednesday.">small budget surplus</a> through the first nine months of the year and is estimating only a small budget deficit of 0.5% of GDP in 2025, according to data from Russia's finance ministry.Russia's economy has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-defense-budget-spending-ukraine-war-putin-sanctions-2024-10">held up</a> partly due to its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">hefty war spending</a>, experts have said, which has boosted growth despite soaring <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-outlook-stagflation-recession-inflation-gdp-growth-ukraine-war-2024-9">inflation</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-central-bank-raises-key-interest-rate-to-21-2024-10">high interest rates</a>, and a labor market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">short of millions of workers</a>.Russia has also taken measures to boost business activity, Inozemstev said, such as by not hiking taxes for entrepreneurs and self-employed workers, while implementing subsidized loan programs for businesses. That means many businesses are sheltered from the pain of higher borrowing costs — and they could actually benefit from the surge in inflation in Russia, which could raise profits, he added.Bank deposits from Russian citizens and corporations, meanwhile, have swelled 54% since 2022, according to central bank data. Russia's war economy also looks to have gained the acceptance of the Russian people, who are benefiting from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-economy-boosts-wages-salaries-beat-inflation-labor-crunch-2024-2">higher wages</a> amid the nation's severe worker shortage. It's another key factor that makes Russia's economy likey more stable than many have thought, Inozemstev said."The economy, I would argue, is now undergoing another wave of adaptation to the changing conditions," Inozemstev wrote. "The people realize that the 'war economy' has substituted the anemic economic condition of the 2010s."Inozemstev said he expected Russia's economy to continue to grow in 2025 and beyond, forecasting 2%-2.5% GDP growth next year. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/RUS">International Monetary Fund</a> has said it is expecting Russia's economy to expand by 3.6% in 2024.

The odds of Russia's economy collapsing are 'extremely small' and the war can go on for the long term, economist says

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Antler India plans to invest in 120 startups over four years with a $75 million fund.</li><li>The firm runs cohorts for individual founders and teams, selecting 100 from up to 5,000 applicants.</li></ul>This as-told-to essay is based on a conversation with Rajiv Srivatsa, a partner at Antler India, a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/founders-putting-startup-dreams-on-hold-in-the-tech-downturn-2024-7">pre-seed venture capital firm</a> based in Bengaluru. It has been edited for length and clarity.I'm a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/landed-vc-job-varied-resume-diverse-experience-resume-2024-8">partner</a> at Antler India, an early-stage <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/startup-success-secret-vcs-founders-nate-silver-on-the-edge-2024-8">venture capital</a> fund. We launched the India chapter about four years ago, and it was the firm's sixth location globally. Antler India has a $75 million fund, which we closed in March.Our plan is to invest in 120 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-startups-get-bought-up-by-private-equity-vc-2024-8">startups </a>over four years, and we have about 65 to date.The classic Antler model includes running a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/top-vc-firms-funding-creator-economy-startups-next-phase-2024-6">cohort of individuals </a>who are transitioning from being employees to startup founders. We help them look for their cofounders and give shape to their idea.One thing we do differently in India is we run a cohort for teams as well. We found that there is a social tendency for people to prefer going into business with people they have known from college or work, and we welcome founders who may already have a team or product in mind.My team and I receive about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-apply-y-combinator-application-down-market-successful-2022-8">4,000 to 5,000 applications</a>, and we select 100 people to join our individual founders' cohort. The program runs for six months, and we end up investing in 20-25 people, or eight to 10 companies. We give them a sum of $250,000 to fund their idea, and another $250,000 once they raise additional capital.I've been a founder myself and have run a company in the 2010s. I have seen two main positive shifts in the Indian startup market.It is a lot easier to attract talent than it was 10 years ago. There was a lot of entitlement and questioning from potential employees, because working for startups instead of long-established companies was seen as a risk. Since the pandemic, there has been a shift, and people are keen to join startups.Founders are getting more mature by the year and have a better understanding of what it takes.They're more frugal because they know capital is tight and they have given their industry more thought. They're not getting into business because something is hot and are instead building for the next five to 10 years. They also assume that their products will need higher traction to raise the same amount of money that would have been invested in them before.Here are five things I look for in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sequoia-partner-jess-lee-advice-for-startup-founders-2022-9">first-time founders</a>:<h2 id="5a01f9b1-7907-4c47-aa10-ead284c40a4d">Five founder traits</h2>Execution and strategy: This is their ability to iterate fast — move between ideas, drop things, and find something new quickly.We also seek people who have ideas that match their skill sets. For example, we don't want to invest in an AI company where none of the founders have solid tech expertise. In the early or "zero to one" and "one to 10" stages, founders have to be able to do things on their own.Grit and tenacity: Either in their personal life or professional life.Customer obsession: We spend the longest time gauging how obsessed a founder is with their customer and problem statement. We want to know if it's just a flash in the pan or if it's something they have been debating over many years. Does the founder really feel the pain of the customer?We want people who are not just armchair experts but have worked with customers and gotten their hands dirty. Someone who has spent their professional life making presentations and in conference rooms may not cut it.Communication: Another thing we look for is a high level of clarity in thinking and how they communicate. At the end of the day, venture capital is a continuous fundraising game — you have to always keep finding good talent, as well as keep telling new investors and the media your story.We try to gauge if the person is getting mixed up, or if they're clear about what they're doing.Ambition and scale: The venture capital industry does not work if you want small outcomes. Even if you don't want to be a unicorn, a startup that is valued at $1 billion, you still need to think in terms of hundreds of millions of dollars of valuation and foresee hundreds of millions of people using your product.<h2 id="019aa888-dfdf-4ac4-bda4-422664c1e934">Plus an X-factor</h2>We don't look for people who score about 80% to 100% on each of these criteria. Instead, we prefer if, for one to two of the five traits, they demonstrate a spike or an X factor — they immediately stand out as someone who is world-class when it comes to execution or communication, for example.We want people who are terrible at some things but exceptional at others.<h2 id="e8cf18ff-f29f-4d97-9753-7fe9d1705a42">Cofounder complements</h2>Most of our participants look for their cofounders after they've entered the cohort, and we spend a lot of time and attention matching people.In my experience, India is not a country where teaching communication is emphasized a lot, so we ask each participant 60 questions to understand their values, working styles, and personality types. We look for complements and see pair-ups between one person with a technical background and one person with business acumen. If a third cofounder is needed, they usually come with operations expertise.One company we recently funded is working on listening to conversations between employees and customers in retail stores, in order to provide retail data to convert more customers. It was the outcome of someone who has worked in retail for years, paired up with a cofounder with tech background.Are you a founder who moved to India to launch their own startup? Please reach out at shubhangigoel@insider.com

I'm a VC in the world's fastest-growing economy. I look for 5 traits in first-time founders.

Union Minister of Communications Jyotiraditya Scindia on Monday stated that <keyword id="19916120" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="5G" source="keywords">5G</keyword> technology is expected to inject around $450 billion into the <keyword id="19948184" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-economy" source="keywords">Indian economy</keyword> by 2040. The minister highlighted this during his address at the Global Standards Symposium at Bharat Mandapam in New Delhi, one of the world's largest telecom events. He said, "In India alone, for example, 5G is anticipated to inject an astounding 450 billion dollars into the economy by 2040." The minister emphasized that 5G is not just about faster internet or low latency, but is laying the groundwork for <keyword id="20006420" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="smart-cities" source="keywords">smart cities</keyword>, advanced infrastructure, and autonomous innovations. Scindia further noted that 5G has already been rolled out across all 36 states and Union Territories, covering 98 per cent of districts and 80 per cent of the population in just 22 months. He said this achievement showcases not only India's technological prowess but also the transformative power of standardized innovation. He added "We are unlocking new Reims of possibility in health care, education and agriculture and Manufacturer" The minister stressed the importance of international collaboration in unlocking the full potential of technologies like 5G, <keyword id="19904566" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="artificial-intelligence" source="keywords">artificial intelligence</keyword> (AI), and the Internet of Things (IoT). He stated that the global standards are key to ensuring that these technologies work harmoniously across borders. "The import of dialogue cannot be overstated. The wonders of 5G the brilliance of artificial intelligence and the interconnected marvels of the Internet of Things. Things are transforming industries, societies and manufacturing processes and economies on a global scale," he said. Scindia also pointed out the need for robust governance in emerging technologies like AI and IoT, emphasizing the importance of ethical considerations and regulatory frameworks to address concerns around privacy, bias, and transparency. He called for a comprehensive policy framework to ensure that future innovations, such as the upcoming 6G technology, benefit everyone equitably and do not deepen existing digital divides. "We are today poised at the edge of a new technological era, the dawn of the 6th generation of mobile network 6G and this is a gateway to the future where communication will become boundless where innovation will know no limits and by humanity, interconnectedness becomes the corner stone of our shared global destiny" he said. Scindia also urged the global community to work together in setting standards and nurturing partnerships that will define the future technological landscape, ensuring technology serves as a force for good. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/hyundai-ipo-review-everything-you-need-to-know-about-indias-biggest-ipo/articleshow/114203740.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/hyundai-ipo-review-everything-you-need-to-know-about-indias-biggest-ipo/articleshow/114203740.cms" target="_blank">Hyundai IPO review – Everything you need to know about India’s biggest IPO</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/the-ola-electric-saga-are-surge-in-complaints-and-declining-market-share-a-wake-up-call-for-bhavish-aggarwal/articleshow/114120828.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/auto/news/the-ola-electric-saga-are-surge-in-complaints-and-declining-market-share-a-wake-up-call-for-bhavish-aggarwal/articleshow/114120828.cms" target="_blank">The Ola Electric Saga: Are surge in complaints and declining market share a wake-up call for Bhavish Aggarwal?</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-leads-the-first-phase-of-festive-sales-with-a-20-market-share/articleshow/114070723.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/samsung-leads-the-first-phase-of-festive-sales-with-a-20-market-share/articleshow/114070723.cms" target="_blank">Samsung leads the first phase of festive sales with a 20% market share</a>

5G to inject $450 billion into Indian economy by 2040: Telecom Minister Scindia

We are once again at a crucial point in the world's economic recovery. Everything must go right, or global markets could turn violent.For the past four years, the world has been unified in its efforts to first ease the economic pain caused by the pandemic and then combat the historic bout of inflation that followed. When the pandemic set in, central banks around the world slashed rates to zero — just as they did during the financial crisis. Then as inflation set in, they started raising rates at a rapid clip unseen in decades. They did all this in nearly perfect time, which ensured that markets remained stable and predictable. But now, the world risks falling out of sync.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ecb-lagarde-economy-interest-rates-cuts-inflation-growth-central-banks-2024-6">European Central Bank began easing interest rates </a>on Thursday, cutting its benchmark rate by 0.25%. The move is not only a sign of confidence that the eurozone is in the last bouts of its battle with inflation but also an indication of worry that the economy needs a small boost to keep rolling. Investors and economists expect the Federal Reserve to follow suit and cut interest rates <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-decision-may-rates-held-steady-no-cuts-2024-5">in September</a>. And so, the story goes, central banks around the world will begin their coordinated descent into a soft landing — a perfect calibration of that push-pull between fighting inflation and evading a recession.The thing is, reality has been making a mockery of experts' assumptions all year long. Wall Street started the year expecting inflation to cool off, the economy to slow to a more leisurely pace of growth, and as many as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rates-2024-outlook-rate-cut-predictions-wall-street-stocks-2023-12">six interest rate</a> cuts from the Fed. Instead, inflation data has consistently come in hot, and the US economy's strength has defied expectations. This combination means there's a good chance that the September cut Wall Street is praying for may never materialize."Summer will definitely be interesting," Tamara Basic Vasiljev, a senior economist at Oxford Economics, told me. Her base case is that everything will go according to plan, but there are caveats: "The Fed has proven its ability to fight off any kind of financial stability issues. But what if services inflation keeps surprising to the upside through the summer? Then it becomes apparent they can't even cut in September."If the Fed doesn't cut come fall, America's high interest-rate regime will be out of step with the rest of the world. And any differential between the US and the rest of the world would send a weird wave of money crashing onto America's shores. That sudden surge of cash could, in turn, add liquidity to our financial system just as the Fed is trying to dry it up and push up prices around the economy. This would make it even harder for the Fed to ease, further diverging US policy from the rest of the world. Think of it as a vicious cycle standing in the way of the world's smooth, soft landing.Over time, this has the potential to add volatility to already skittish markets. Here in the US, stocks move on mood — one week, Wall Street thinks we're in for stagflation; the next, it believes a soft landing is coming. This divergence in interest policy, over time, has the potential to bring that same frantic energy to currency markets.<h2>The carry nation</h2>Wind is the result of an imbalance: air moving from areas of high pressure to areas of low pressure. The greater the pressure differences, the faster the wind blows. The same principle applies to the global flow of cash — investors chase imbalances, and sometimes things get blown over in the process.The US already has somewhat higher interest rates than other countries — the Fed's benchmark rate is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-forecast-2024-full-accommodation-economic-contraction-unemployment-2023-11">5.25%- 5.50%.</a> These differentials have allowed Wall Street to make what is called a "<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/foreign-exchange-funds-central-banks-fed-rate-hikes-carry-trade-2023-11">carry trade</a>": Investors borrow money from a country with low interest rates, invest it in bonds from a country where interest rates are high, and pocket the difference. In this case, that means moving money from the rest of the world and buying US assets, particularly government bonds. This trade has been hot since the start of the year — investment banks like JPMorgan and UBS recommended it to clients, and a Bloomberg index based on selling the lowest-yielding G10 currencies and buying the highest ones has already returned 7% this year. The Institute of International Finance reported that in May alone, Emerging Markets ex-China — where rates are also higher — saw bond-market inflows of $10.2 billion, mostly due to investors benefiting from carry trades like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-futures-dip-as-growth-concerns-linger/card/japanese-yen-strengthens-as-risk-aversion-rises-carry-trade-crumbles-9tGHrcickLndc749YzTO">selling Japanese yen</a> to buy Mexican pesos. These trades are "everywhere," Peter Schaffrik, a global macro strategist at RBC Capital Markets, told Bloomberg. And the more rates diverge, the more attractive this march of money from weak to strong becomes.What seems like a slam dunk for Wall Street is not such good news for either the US or the global economy. At a time when economies in Europe and elsewhere are losing momentum, sucking more money away from these economies will tighten financial conditions while they're trying to avoid a slowdown — especially in crucial regional data like <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/european-shares-fall-amid-data-deluge-1033460481">German industrial production</a>, which has come in soft of late. It will also weaken the euro, which will make it harder for the continent to import the energy it needs to fuel its economy and make it more expensive to buy American goods. And in Asian economies, where interest rates are already significantly lower than in the US, things could get even messier."We expect that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/japan-yen-slump-intervention-currency-buy-us-involvement-interest-rates-2024-5">Japan</a> and South Korea will face challenges balancing monetary policy to maintain stability as the dollar appreciates," Nigel Green, the CEO of deVere Group, a global wealth-management firm, told me. "I wouldn't be surprised if policymakers feel the need to intervene in the currency markets or adjust interest rates to manage these effects."For the US, more money sloshing onto America's shores has the opposite impact of what the Fed wants to achieve: It pushes up asset prices and loosens financial conditions. In other words, it makes it harder for the Fed to fight the inflation that is aggravating consumers."There are legitimate concerns that this influx of capital into the US will increase liquidity, driving up asset prices and inflationary pressure, making it more challenging for the Fed to lower rates," Green said. "Increased liquidity can lead to inflationary pressures, which the Fed might need to counteract by maintaining or even raising rates."As Green mentioned, there's a way for the Fed to fight back: hiking interest rates some more. But jacking up interest rates even further could finally break the back of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-hard-landing-economy-consumer-spending-slowdown-growth-gdp-2024-5#:~:text=Consumers%20are%20finally%20slowing%20their,and%20a%20weakening%20job%20market.">until now strong US consumer</a> and send us into a recession. It's the same calculation the ECB is making, though the EU's slowdown is more marked. Given these downsides, the Fed is unlikely to hike, which will create the perfect market for the carry trade to thrive. And as long as US data remains choppy — pointing to sticky inflation one day and disinflation the next — this carry-trade cash will end up sloshing around in the economy. This is a dynamic that central banks from countries already on their rate-cutting path will be watching. They're already seeing growth slow and, on top of that, will have money sucked away to the US, where data has been relatively strong through the first half of the year. Carry-trade cash exploits the dislocations between global economies that are keeping our policies from coordinating. We're in the early innings, but the longer this goes on, the more of an impact it will make. For Wall Street, that means <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-summer-worry-stock-market-crash-inflation-hamtons-vacation-2024-5">a summer of vigilance</a>. For economists, it means the picture of our economy that they're trying to cobble together with contradictory data is even blurrier. It's a time of increased uncertainty.<h2>Sticky-ing the landing</h2>There is, of course, hope that this divergence will be only a temporary state of affairs. If the US suddenly starts printing weak economic data, that will hasten the Fed's move to cut rates. And there are signs that EU inflation is stickier than policymakers would like, which could slow the pace of cuts enough for America to catch up.There are already signs of a slight tempering of America's red-hot economy: The household savings rate is at a 16-month low, disposable incomes have made only modest gains, and the amount that people have to pay on credit balances is elevated. The white-hot job market has cooled, and job openings have returned to prepandemic levels. But not every indicator is telling the story of a soft landing. On Friday, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-unemployment-rate-job-growth-looked-in-may-2024-6">May's jobs report</a> showed that the country created 272,000 jobs — way more than the 182,000 expected. The data seesaw stateside continues. On the other side of the Atlantic, there are signs that UK and EU inflation could be stickier than policymakers had foreseen. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/interestrates/eurozone-inflation-rises-ahead-of-ecb-meeting-1033440963">EU inflation ticked up slightly to 2.6% in May</a>, surprising the ECB but not shocking it enough to stop a June rate cut. In the UK, stubborn services inflation, which came in at 5.9% for the month of April, may give the Bank of England reason to pause. Oxford Economics' Basic Vasiljev told me that this indicated that the EU and US were moving more in tandem than this policy lag suggests and the current policy divergence would remain short. Even the Bank of Canada, which cut its benchmark rate to 4.75% from 5% last week, is cautiously optimistic the dislocation will be momentary. "There are limits to how far we can diverge from the United States, but we're not close to those limits," Gov. Tiff Macklem said at the Bank of Canada's latest meeting. Not close… yet.This rosy outlook is not a guarantee: Wall Street still expects three cuts this year from the ECB and the <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/european-shares-fall-amid-data-deluge-1033460481">Bank of England</a>. Even in little clips of 0.25%, three cuts would create a divergence traders would exploit. And if September comes and the US is still hot, that exploitation could continue all year long, exacerbating the conditions that are keeping monetary policy out of sync. That sucking sound you'll hear all summer is the sound of Wall Street slurping money from Europe, Canada, the UK, and East Asia into US markets. Policymakers will have to recalibrate. This doesn't mean we won't stick a soft landing — especially if this disordered moment is brief — it just increases the odds of a bumpy ride until we get there.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/linette-lopez">Linette Lopez</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider.

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