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<ul class="summary-list"><li>JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon said US adversaries want to dismantle the world order.</li><li>The bank chief said the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Gaza conflicts could escalate into World War III.</li></ul>Jamie Dimon says <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/americas-rivals-pressure-same-time-russia-china-iran-north-korea-2024-9">US adversaries</a> want to topple the world order, and the Russia-Ukraine and Israel-Hamas conflicts could explode into a new world war.China and Russia are "clearly talking about dismantling the system" established by Western nations after World War II, and "the risk of this is extraordinary," the JPMorgan CEO said at the Institute for International Finance's annual meeting in Washington, DC on Thursday. Business Insider obtained a recording of his comments.Dimon emphasized the risk that global warfare could break out, citing his historical knowledge and a recent Washington Post article that said, "World War III has already begun.""You already have battles on the ground being coordinated in multiple countries," the billionaire banker said. The fighting could diminish and peace deals might be struck, but "mistakes happen," he said."So, to me, we shouldn't be naive," Dimon said. "We can't take the chance this will resolve itself. We have to make sure that we are involved in doing the right things to get it resolved properly for the sake of the free democratic Western world for the next 100 years."Dimon underlined the difficulty of preparing for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">what might lie ahead</a>. "We run scenarios that would shock you. I don't even want to mention them."The bank chief pointed to Russian President Vladimir Putin's war against Ukraine as a particularly grave threat."We have to be quite clear that we can't have a bad outcome there," he said. "We've never had a situation where a man is threatening nuclear blackmail," adding: "If that doesn't scare you, it should."Dimon also said the spread of nuclear weapons technology was the "biggest risk mankind faces." He said that if Iran secures a nuclear bomb then many other countries will too, "and then folks, it's just a matter of time before these things are going off in major cities around the world."Dimon has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ray-dalio-jamie-dimon-billionaire-investors-world-war-iii-outlook-2023-11">sounding the alarm</a> on global threats for a while. In JPMorgan's third-quarter earnings this month, he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jpmorgan-earnings-q3-jamie-dimon-economy-geopolitics-banking-wall-street-2024-10">said</a> geopolitical conditions were "treacherous and getting worse." How the conflicts are resolved could have "far-reaching effects on both short-term economic outcomes and more importantly on the course of history," he added.Ray Dalio, another Wall Street billionaire and a financial historian, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-israel-hamas-world-war-middle-east-politics-linkedin-2023-10">said</a> last October that the chance of a world war involving the US and China had jumped from 35% to 50% over the previous two years.

Jamie Dimon says the global order is at risk — and raging conflicts could explode into World War 3

<ul><li>India, Indonesia, Mexico, UK and US are set to go for elections in the next two years.</li><li>Widespread misinformation fuelled by elections could threaten democratic processes, says a report by WEF.</li><li>Societal polarisation is among the top three risks over both the current and two-year time horizons.</li><li>AI fuelled <keyword id="2479020" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="fake-news" source="Orion">fake news</keyword>, the emotive effect they have and fast progress versus controls are also worrying stakeholders across the world. </li></ul>It’s a year of many elections across the world. This, on top of two ongoing wars, could make it the year of misinformation and disinformation, says a report by the <keyword id="69007" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-economic-forum" source="Orion">World Economic Forum</keyword> (WEF) in its <keyword id="602682" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-risks" source="Orion">global risks</keyword> report 2024. Close to three billion people are expected to head to the electoral polls across several economies – including Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, the United Kingdom and the United States – over the next two years. “The widespread use of misinformation and disinformation, and tools to disseminate it, may undermine the legitimacy of newly elected governments. Resulting unrest could range from violent protests and hate crimes to civil confrontation and terrorism,” WEF said. State-backed campaigns too can add fuel to fire in the form of sanctions, cyber offenses, detentions and more. These detentions could also be targeted based on nationality, ethnicity and religion, the report says. In an increasingly polarized world Societal polarization is the third-most severe risk over the short term, and a consistent concern across stakeholder groupings. Societal polarization features among the top three risks over both the current and two-year time horizons. Social polarisation is interconnected to economic downturn, and is an influential set of risk factors. It can serve as drivers for many consequences of numerous risks. “Divisive factors such as political polarization and economic hardship are diminishing trust and a sense of shared values. The erosion of social cohesion is leaving ample room for new and evolving risks to propagate in turn,” it added. And a clear victim of these polarizing effects and perceived reality is the truth. “As polarization grows and technological risks remain unchecked, ‘truth’ will come under pressure,” WEF says. As truth is undermined, propaganda and censorship will rise. “In response to mis- and disinformation, governments could be increasingly empowered to control information based on what they determine to be “true”, WEF worries. AI-powered misinformation highway Who is affecting the truth? AI is leading the misinformation highway, driving more and more factors into it. Apart from being very effective in generating believable content, it’s also becoming much harder to discern even for the digitally educated consumer as well as detection mechanisms. Another layer on top of it AI hallucinated content. In the survey, most people voted AI-generated misinformation and disinformation as the second biggest risk after extreme weather conditions that could rock the calendar year. “Such information can thus still be emotively powerful, blurring the line between malign and benign use,” the report says. For example, an AI-generated campaign video could influence voters and fuel protests, or in more extreme scenarios, lead to violence or radicalization, even if it carries a warning by the platform on which it is shared that it is fabricated content. The report says that synthetic content will manipulate individuals, damage economies and fracture societies in numerous ways over the next two years. It will also aid the proliferation of new classes of crime like non-consensual deepfake pornography or stock market manipulation. “However, even as the insidious spread of misinformation and disinformation threatens the cohesion of societies, there is a risk that some governments will act too slowly, facing a trade-off between preventing misinformation and protecting free speech, while repressive governments could use enhanced regulatory control to erode human rights,” WEF report says.

Election fuelled misinformation is serious global risk in 2024, says WEF

New York [US], May 21 (ANI): International tourist arrivals and the <keyword id="2173225" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="travel-and-tourism" source="Orion">travel and tourism</keyword> sector's contribution to <keyword id="572312" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-GDP" source="Orion">global GDP</keyword> are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, driven by the complete lifting of COVID-19-related <keyword id="19916662" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="travel" source="keywords">travel</keyword> restrictions and strong pent-up demand, as per the new <keyword id="20020435" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Economic-Forum" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Economic Forum" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Economic Forum">World Economic Forum</keyword> travel and <keyword id="19997361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="tourism" source="keywords">tourism</keyword> study, released on Tuesday. Topping the 2024 list of economies are the US, Spain, Japan, France and Australia. The Middle East had the highest recovery rates in international tourist arrivals - 20 per cent above the 2019 level, while Europe, Africa and the US all showed a strong recovery of around 90 per cent in 2023. <keyword id="21745194" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Travel-and-Tourism-Development-Index-2024" source="Orion">Travel and Tourism Development Index 2024</keyword> (TTDI), a biennial report published in collaboration with the University of Surrey, analysed the travel and tourism sectors of 119 countries around a range of factors and policies. "This year marks a turning point for the travel and tourism sector, which we know has the capacity to unlock growth and serve communities through economic and social transformation," said Francisco Betti, Head of the Global Industries team at the World Economic Forum. "The report offers a forward-looking window into the current and future state of travel and tourism for leaders to navigate the latest trends in this complex sector and sustainably unlock its potential for communities and countries across the world." The <keyword id="840423" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-tourism" source="Orion">global tourism</keyword> industry is expected to recover from the lows of the COVID-19 pandemic and surpass the levels seen before the crisis. As per the report, this is largely being driven by a significant increase in demand worldwide, which has coincided with more available flights, better international openness, and increased interest and investment in natural and cultural attractions. However, the report painted that the global recovery has been mixed. While 71 of the 119 ranked economies increased their index scores since 2019. Although the sector has moved past the shock of the global health crisis, it continues to deal with other external challenges, from growing macroeconomic, geopolitical and environmental risks, to increased scrutiny of its sustainability practices. In addition, labour shortages are ongoing, and air route capacity, capital investment, productivity and other sector supply factors have not kept up with the increase in demand. This imbalance, worsened by global inflation, has increased prices and service issues. Out of the top 30 index scorers in 2024, 26 are high-income economies, 19 are based in Europe, seven are in Asia-Pacific, three are in the Americas and one (the United Arab Emirates) is in the Middle East and North Africa region (MENA). The top 10 countries in the 2024 edition are the United States, Spain, Japan, France, Australia, Germany, the United Kingdom, China, Italy and Switzerland. The results highlight that high-income economies generally continue to have more favourable conditions for travel and tourism development. This is helped by conducive business environments, dynamic labour markets, open travel policies, strong transport and tourism infrastructure, and well-developed natural, cultural and non-leisure attractions. "It's essential to bridge the divide between differing economies' ability to build a strong environment for their travel and tourism sector to thrive," said Iis Tussyadiah, Professor and Head of the School of Hospitality and Tourism Management at the University of Surrey. "The sector has big potential to foster prosperity and mitigate global risks, but that potential can only be fully realized through a strategic and inclusive approach." If managed strategically, the travel and tourism sector - which has historically represented 10 per cent of global GDP and employment - has the potential to emerge as a key contributor to growth, it said. (ANI)

Worldwide tourism and its contribution to global GDP to return to pre-COVID levels this year: WEF study

Whenever <keyword id="2069863" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Bhumi-Pednekar" source="Orion">Bhumi Pednekar</keyword> is mentioned, the image of strong female characters inevitably springs to mind. She has made her mark in films like 'Dum Laga Ke Haisha', 'Toilet: Ek Prem Katha' and 'Bhakshak', earning acclaim for her portrayals tackling social issues. It turns out her dedication to impactful roles extends beyond the silver screen — a commitment that has now earned her recognition as a <keyword id="120368" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Young-Global-Leader" source="Orion">Young Global Leader</keyword> (YGL) by the <keyword id="69007" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Economic-Forum" source="Orion">World Economic Forum</keyword> (WEF)! The Young Global Leaders community celebrates individuals under 40 who are actively addressing pressing global challenges. The program aims to empower these exceptional leaders shaping a more sustainable and inclusive future. The Bollywood star will join the prestigious YGL's class of 2024 in Geneva later this year, acknowledged for her efforts in promoting awareness of <keyword id="49089" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sustainability" source="Orion">sustainability</keyword>, and climate change, and her significant contributions during the COVID-19 pandemic. As an ardent advocate for environmental conservation and sustainable living, Bhumi has effectively utilised her fame to champion causes like waste segregation, rainwater harvesting, recycling, and conscious fashion choices. Her role as a climate warrior has also seen her collaborating with activists nationwide, amplifying their voices and supporting initiatives focused on environmental preservation and <keyword id="299722" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="climate-action" source="Orion">climate action</keyword>. Expressing gratitude for being named a Young Global Leader, Bhumi shared: “I am deeply honoured and humbled to be recognised by the World Economic Forum as a Young Global Leader. Through my work, I have strived to ignite conversations, inspire action, and foster tangible change in the realm of sustainability and climate change. “I aspire to cultivate a diverse portfolio as both an actor and entrepreneur, and I look forward to realising these ambitions through the World Economic Forum's YGL program. This validation also reaffirms my belief in the power of collective action. I am committed to continuing my efforts and I look forward to collaborating with fellow Young Global Leaders to drive positive change.” In addition to Bhumi, the WEF has also acknowledged four other Indians for their significant contributions in their respective fields and their commitment to effecting positive change. These individuals, including <keyword id="2422251" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Adwaita-Nayar" source="Orion">Adwaita Nayar</keyword> (CEO of Nykaa), <keyword id="4976567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Arjun-Bhartia" source="Orion">Arjun Bhartia</keyword> (Director at Jubilant Group), <keyword id="8656479" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Priya-Agarwal-Hebbar" source="Orion">Priya Agarwal Hebbar</keyword> (Non-Executive Director at Vedanta Limited) and <keyword id="1011865" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Sharad-Vivek-Sagar" source="Orion">Sharad Vivek Sagar</keyword> (Founder and CEO of Dexterity Global), join nearly 90 changemakers from various sectors in this year's YGL cohort. Together, they are dedicated to leaving a lasting impact on their communities and beyond.

Young Global Leader: World Economic Forum recognises Bhumi Pednekar for her role in promoting sustainability

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s rank on the <keyword id="20020435" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Economic-Forum" source="keywords">World Economic Forum</keyword>'s <keyword id="21747126" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Travel-Tourism-Development-Index-2024" source="Orion">Travel &amp; Tourism Development Index 2024</keyword> has risen to 39th place, with global tourism activities returning to pre-pandemic levels, the annual report showed on Tuesday. While the US topped the list, India is ranked highest in South Asia and among the lower-middle-income economies, the <keyword id="102110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WEF" source="Orion">WEF</keyword> said. India was ranked 54th in the previously published index in 2021, though changes made to the index parameters limit its comparability to earlier years. After the US, Spain, Japan, France and Australia figure among the top five in the 2024 list. The index, prepared in collaboration with the University of Surrey, showed India is highly price-competitive (18th) and boasts competitive Air Transport (26th) and Ground and Port (25th) infrastructure. In particular, India's strong Natural (6th), Cultural (9th) and Non-Leisure (9th) Resources help drive travel, and the country is only one of three to score in the top 10 for all the resource pillars, the WEF said. Moreover, despite a decline compared to 2019, the country still scores well for <keyword id="2173225" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="travel-and-tourism" source="Orion">travel and tourism</keyword> demand sustainability, especially thanks to more sustainable long stays among inbound visitors. It further said that as with many economies, travel and tourism enabling conditions in India have been impacted by global inflationary supply-side trends for the sector, with price competitiveness declining, while air transport and tourist services infrastructure are yet to recover to the 2019 level. As a result, the country's overall TTDI (Travel and Tourism Development Index) score is 2.1 per cent below its 2019 level. High-income economies in Europe and Asia-Pacific continued to lead the index. "International tourist arrivals and the travel and tourism sector's contribution to global GDP are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, driven by the lifting of COVID-19-related travel restrictions and strong pent-up demand," the WEF said. The Middle East had the highest recovery rates in international tourist arrivals (20 per cent above the 2019 level), while Europe, Africa and the Americas all showed a strong recovery of around 90 per cent in 2023. The biennial index analysed the travel and tourism sectors of 119 countries around a range of factors and policies. Germany was ranked 6th, followed by the UK, China, Italy and Switzerland in the top ten. The results highlighted that high-income economies generally continue to have more favourable conditions for travel and tourism development. This was helped by conducive business environments, dynamic labour markets, open travel policies, strong transport and tourism infrastructure, and well-developed natural, cultural and non-leisure attractions.

India rises to rank 39th on WEF's Travel & Tourism Development Index 2024, becomes highest ranked South Asian nation

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Nouriel Roubini says stagflation risk will rise if Donald Trump wins the election.</li><li>The famed "Dr. Doom" economist made the remarks at the Greenwich Economic Forum on Wednesday.</li></ul>The US economy might confront a fate more challenging than a recession if Donald Trump retakes the White House, famed economist Nouriel Roubini said."The combination of trade, currency, monetary, fiscal, immigration and foreign policy of Trump poses much higher risks of stagflationary outcomes than if Kamala Harris is elected," he said at the Greenwich Economic Forum on Wednesday, first reported by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-09/-dr-doom-nouriel-roubini-warns-of-trump-win-spurring-stagflation-shock">Bloomberg</a>.The famously bearish forecaster is referring to the one scenario central banks hope to avoid at whatever cost. Stagflation occurs when inflation keeps rising but growth slows.There are no painless solutions for an economy that tumbles into this situation.Typically, central banks lower interest rates to revive weaker activity, but this option goes away if prices keep rising. Rates must stay high to reduce inflation, leaving authorities between a rock and a hard place.When stagflation last hit the US in the 1970s, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-us-economy-outlook-gdp-dimon-inflation-rate-cuts-2024-4">deep recession was required to finally break out</a> of the crisis.According to Roubini, Trump's proposals would fuel these two key ingredients: lower growth and higher inflation.For instance, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-plan-inflation-policy-impact-trade-war-china-rates-2024-5">scores of economists</a> have criticized the former president's pledge to introduce a 10% universal tariff on all US imports. Not only are duties past down to consumers, but these taxes cause producers to pull out their products. When this happens, supply falls and prices rise.Trump's idea to replace the US income tax with tariffs was similarly called out by former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, who called it the "<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-income-tax-proposal-stagflation-yellen-summers-trade-war-2024-6">mother of all stagflations</a>."When it comes to currency policy, Barclays highlighted that Trump's plans to devalue the US dollar <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-tariff-trade-barrier-proposals-us-dollar-devaluation-currency-dominance-2024-7">would likewise spark higher inflation</a>.Roubini also expressed concern about Trump's stringent immigration policies. If elected, the Republican candidate has vowed to enforce mass deportations, which threatens one of the economy's major engines of growth, Roubini said.Others have made the same point. In July, JPMorgan's chief global strategist David Kelly called Trump's tariff and immigration policy mix an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stagflation-recession-trump-policy-tariff-immigration-deportation-economy-outlook-jpmorgan-2024-7">"elixir for stagflation."</a> Separately, the Peterson Institute think tank warned that removing migrant workers would <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-plan-impact-recession-risk-inflation-stagflation-labor-2024-6">trigger a labor supply crunch</a> and a manufacturing-based recession.Roubini said tensions in the Middle East make the threat of stagflation under Trump worse. As conflict escalates between Israel and Iran, rising oil prices increase price pressure. By one estimate, a worst-case scenario in the region could push international crude up to<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/oil-price-outlook-israel-iran-geopolitics-middle-east-war-crude-2024-10?_gl=1*1dmubht*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ5NTIxOC43MDguMS4xNzI4NDk5OTY5LjYwLjAuMA.."> $200 a barrel</a>.He recommended that investors buy gold, short-term duration bonds, and Treasury inflation-protected securities to hedge against any upcoming risk.To be sure, not all of Roubini's forecasts have panned out. After correctly predicting the 2008 housing crash, his pessimistic outlooks have earned him the moniker of "Dr. Doom."According to Bloomberg, he similarly warned of a stagflationary debt crisis in 2022, citing that it would be worse than the 1970s era.

A Trump victory raises the risk of a US economic situation worse than recession, 'Dr. Doom' Nouriel Roubini says

Davos, The proportion of CEOs who believe global economic growth will improve over the next 12 months has more than doubled since last year, the annual <keyword id="20211002" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pwc-global-ceo-survey" source="keywords">PwC Global CEO Survey</keyword> showed on Monday. The survey, released on the first day of the <keyword id="20020435" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-economic-forum" source="keywords">World Economic Forum</keyword> Annual Meeting here, also showed that almost half of CEOs do not believe their businesses will be viable in a decade amid acceleration of technology and climate pressures. The survey, which interviewed over 4,700 CEOs across 105 countries and territories, found that 38 per cent of CEOs are optimistic about global economic growth prospects in the next one year, up from 18 per cent in 2023. CEOs' expectations of economic decline have also tumbled from a record high of 73 per cent in the 2023 survey to 45 per cent. Despite ongoing conflicts, the proportion of CEOs who felt their company is highly or extremely exposed to geopolitical conflict risk fell 7 percentage points to 18 per cent. CEOs in most regions of the world were found to be more likely to be optimistic about domestic economic prospects than pessimistic, but <keyword id="19905008" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="north-america" source="keywords">North America</keyword> and <keyword id="20055122" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="western-europe" source="keywords">Western Europe</keyword> bucked the trend. CEOs overwhelmingly see generative AI as a catalyst for reinvention that will power efficiency, innovation and transformational change, the survey said. At the same time, a great majority of CEOs said they will require workforce upskilling to reap the transformative benefits of generative AI. "This year's data suggests a high degree of CEO uncertainty ahead, but CEOs are taking action. They are transforming their business models, investing in technology and their people and managing the risks and opportunities presented by the climate transition," PwC Global Chair <keyword id="20205687" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bob-moritz" source="keywords">Bob Moritz</keyword> said. If businesses are to thrive over the short and long term, build trust, and deliver sustained and long-term value, they must accelerate the pace of reinvention, he said while releasing the survey results.

Economic optimism doubles but tech, climate pressures accelerate: PwC CEO survey

Davos, Global economic growth is estimated to fall to its lowest rate in three decades by 2030 amid the ongoing economic and geopolitical shocks, a new report said on Monday. <keyword id="20205587" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="releasing-the-future-of-growth-report" source="keywords">Releasing the Future of Growth Report</keyword> 2024 here ahead of its annual meeting of world leaders, the <keyword id="20020435" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="world-economic-forum" source="keywords">World Economic Forum</keyword> (<keyword id="19955159" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wef" source="keywords">WEF</keyword>) said this downturn is exacerbating a range of interconnected global challenges, including the climate crisis and a weakening social contract, which are collectively reversing progress in global development. The report called for a new approach to economic growth that balances efficiency with long-term sustainability and equity, examining speed, and quality together. Analysing the quality of growth across 107 economies, it found that high-income economies score high on innovation and inclusion, while lower-income economies on sustainability. "Reigniting global growth will be essential to addressing key challenges, yet growth alone is not enough," WEF Managing Director <keyword id="20205586" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="saadia-zahidi" source="keywords">Saadia Zahidi</keyword> said. "The report proposes a new way for assessing economic growth that balances efficiency with long-term sustainability, resilience and equity, as well as innovation for the future, aligning with both global and national priorities," she added. The WEF also launched its 'Future of Growth' initiative, a two-year endeavour aimed at charting a new narrative for economic growth and supporting policymakers from around the world, together with economists and other experts, in identifying the best pathways in balance growth, innovation, inclusion, sustainability, and resilience goals. The report said that most countries continue to grow in ways that are neither sustainable nor inclusive and are limited in their ability to absorb or generate innovation and minimise their contribution and susceptibility to global shocks.

Global economic slowdown headed for worst phase in three decades: WEF study

Amid the ongoing geopolitical tension, the <keyword id="19904988" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="energy-sector" source="keywords">energy sector</keyword> will continue to face challenge while the <keyword id="20468174" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="consumer-goods" source="keywords">consumer goods</keyword>, automotive, healthcare is set to expand in 2025, highlighted a report 'Industry Outlook 2025' by <keyword id="20618515" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economist-Intelligence-Unit" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Economist Intelligence Unit" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Economist Intelligence Unit">Economist Intelligence Unit</keyword>. The report noted that the Fossil fuel markets will continue to face risks from geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East and Ukraine. However, investments in <keyword id="19895602" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="renewable-energy" source="keywords">renewable energy</keyword> will remain strong, especially in China, as the world pushes toward cleaner and more sustainable energy sources. The report said "Fossil-fuel markets will continue to face <keyword id="20064250" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="geopolitical-risks" source="keywords">geopolitical risks</keyword> amid conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, but investment into renewables will remain strong, particularly in China." It also added that the financial sector faces a mixed outlook with falling interest rates anticipated to narrow bank profit margins, potentially leading to smaller dividend payouts for shareholders. Yet, regulatory easing could provide relief, with the Basel III endgame likely seeing further delays, softening the impact on banking institutions amid a challenging economic landscape. For the consumer goods and retailing the report added that the Global retail volumes are forecast to grow by 2.2 per cent in 2025, thanks to easing inflation. However, stricter regulations on online retailing will target high-volume, low-price retailers, to ensure fair competition and consumer protection. It said "Global retail volumes will expand by 2.2 per cent, helped by disinflation, but regulations around online retailing will tighten further" As per report, the <keyword id="20359760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="automotive-sector" source="keywords">automotive sector</keyword> is set for a record year, it said "After a difficult few years, annual new-vehicle sales will reach a record 97.2m units in 2025. This includes a 2 per cent rise in new car sales, a 4 per cent increase in commercial vehicle sales, and a significant 16 per cent growth in <keyword id="19963112" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicle-sales" source="keywords">electric vehicle sales</keyword>, reflecting the sector's recovery and the shift toward cleaner mobility. In technology the report added more countries will adopt satellite internet, although the primary users will be enterprise clients, including military and maritime sectors. Amazon's Project Kuiper will challenge the existing market dominance of Starlink and EutelSat OneWeb, offering more competition and potential growth in satellite connectivity. The resulting tensions will continue to affect investment into production and market entry, with companies taking advantage of government incentives to build out more flexible supply chains. <keyword id="23684177" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="investment-in-technology" source="keywords">Investment in technology</keyword>, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), will also be strong as projects gather pace. However, technology companies will face pressure from several directions as regulations tighten (particularly in Europe), investors become more impatient for profits and their energy usage comes under more scrutiny.

Consumer goods, auto and healthcare sector to expand but energy may face challenge in 2025: Report

No one's going to sound an alarm, blast out a text message, or shoot you an email about it, but the US economy is undergoing a historic shift. We are leaving one long period of expansion — what economists refer to as a "supercycle" — and entering a very different one.Over the past 15 years, the economy has been characterized by weak demand and low interest rates — a decade-and-a-half hangover from the Great Recession. Now, experts tell me, that is coming to an end. The world has changed, and we are entering an era of higher growth, creeping inflation, and geopolitical instability that will reroute the flow of money around the world. A new era has arrived, but it's going to be bumpy.The good news is that this new era looks as if it will be unencumbered by some of the problems that put a ceiling on growth during the previous era. The most salient feature of the old period, economists say, was the risk of deflation — the possibility that a lack of demand would cause wages and prices to spiral downward, a trap that is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-economy-deflation-unemployment-job-market-recession-outlook-paul-krugman-2024-7">extremely difficult to escape</a>. In an effort to avoid that fate, policymakers in Washington pushed interest rates down to zero and encouraged <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/softbank-crashing-investments-uber-wework-monopoly-failure-2019-11">all kinds</a> of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/charlatans-show-up-when-wall-street-stock-market-gets-weird-2021-3">risky</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/twilight-of-tech-gods-recession-stock-market-crash-silicon-valley-2022-5">behavior</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-ackmans-big-pharma-trade-is-making-wall-street-a-super-awkward-place-2014-10">among</a> investors, businesses, and everyday consumers. Investors trying to reach their benchmarks "had to creep out on the risk spectrum," Josh Hirt, a senior economist at Vanguard, tells me. "Supercheap debt," he says, made it easy for businesses to "overexpand and overhire."The pro-risk environment had some earth-shifting consequences. Silicon Valley put the internet on our phones, China blew a massive bubble in its property market, and the world started investing in renewable energy. But low interest rates did little to boost demand, and the economy consistently grew slower than it did before the crash, never notching above 3% GDP growth. It was only after the massive government stimulus, spurred by the pandemic, that the economy reached escape velocity, pushing up wages and starting to grow at a healthy clip.Now, economists say, we're entering a supercycle that will be characterized by three sweeping forces. First, higher interest rates will reward savers, making it more expensive to take risks. Second, geopolitical and economic volatility will generate inflationary effects, reintroducing the specter of soaring prices. And third, industrial planning will be increasingly influenced by national-security concerns, altering supply chains across industries. How low interest rates wind up settling will establish a new gravitational pull in global markets, recalibrating the forces that determine where the economy is most likely to grow — and where investment is most likely to flow.The new supercycle "puts the economy in a completely new era," says Silas Myers, the CEO of Mar Vista Investments, which oversees $4 billion in assets. He warns that an entire generation of investors, lenders, and entrepreneurs have failed to embrace the "profound impact" that the new economic era will have on their businesses."We were in a time that was less demanding and more forgiving," Myers says. "But that time is ending."One of the clearest signs that a new economic supercycle has arrived is when the financial rules go topsy-turvy. The previous supercycle was ushered in when the Federal Reserve, in response to the destruction caused by the financial crisis, cut its benchmark interest rate to 0% — the first time the central bank went all the way to the bottom.The structural shift sent shockwaves throughout the world. Yields on Treasury bonds tanked, meaning investors had to start taking some serious risks if they wanted to make money. This new adventurism pushed stocks higher and higher. Capital went flying into China and other emerging markets in record amounts — some $1 trillion in 2010 alone. Venture capitalists sank billions into companies like Juicero and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wework-adam-neumann-apartment-startup-investment-silicon-valley-vc-apocalypse-2022-8">WeWork</a> that had no viable plan to turn a profit. And with interest rates so low, companies could suddenly load up on debt: From 2007 to 2017, global nonfinancial corporate debt doubled, to $66 trillion. Until the pandemic hit, inflation and wage growth both remained below 3.9%. The world had changed. Now, with the arrival of a new supercycle, money managers are once again being forced to adapt to a changing set of economic realities. Normally, when the Fed hikes interest rates rapidly, the stock market tanks. But that's no longer true. From 2022 to 2024, as the benchmark federal funds rate shot up to 5.5% from 0.5%, the Nasdaq 100 and the S&amp;P 500 soared by 23% and 22%. Higher interest rates also failed to spur widespread layoffs or crater the economy. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-report-labor-market-hiring-layoffs-quits-recession-sahm-rule-2024-8">Unemployment has stayed below 4.3%</a>, and GDP growth has remained solid, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-second-quarter-2024-us-economy-2024-7">defying fears of a recession</a>. In short, something has scrambled the natural interactions of the marketplace. It's as if you put your hand over a hot stove and your fingers turned ice cold.One explanation for the economy's topsy-turvy behavior is a change in what economists call the neutral interest rate — the optimal point for encouraging growth without triggering inflation. After the financial crisis in 2008, the economy was so weak that the neutral rate went to zero to encourage money to flow more freely. But now the market's weird nature may be signaling that the neutral rate has risen above the Fed's ideal target of 2%. That would explain why the Fed's higher rates are no longer putting the brakes on growth. Fueled by the post-pandemic government stimulus, the economy's baseline has shifted. Over at Vanguard, Hirt and his colleagues predict that the neutral rate will stay higher for the foreseeable future, eventually settling at about 3.5%."Even if we do dip below 3.5%, the Fed will be anchored at that higher rate," Hirt says. "If the economy were to experience weakness and we have to cut rates, we still don't think that means taking rates back to zero."Unless you're a boomer, you've probably never experienced a world with this high a neutral rate. It changes the nature of risk, which changes what people decide to do with money on micro and macro levels. If you can get a decent return parking your money in ultrasafe government debt, why risk investing it in a startup or stomach the stock market's volatility? This isn't to say no one will be out here taking risks with their cash — it will just flow in different directions. That's because consumers are in a better place now than they were in the era that emerged after the Great Recession.The economy is "an extraordinarily diverse and dynamic animal," Joe Quinlan, the chief market strategist at Bank of America, assured clients in a recent note. It's "a $28 trillion hydra-headed behemoth that beats to the tune of many different sectors." As the Fed's higher rates were putting a strain on rate-sensitive sectors like housing — which makes up 16% of the economy — Big Tech and travel-starved households were spending money fast and loose. The experience showed that overall consumption can continue to rise even when significant swaths of the economy are struggling.So what can we expect from the new economic supercycle? Like every cycle, it will have its upsides and downsides. Rising interest rates will make loans more expensive, forcing businesses to make more-thoughtful decisions about debt. But they'll also boost savings accounts and interest income. In addition, a faster-growing economy will tighten the labor market, empowering workers to continue to fight for a larger slice of the pie. Since 2019, the bottom 10% of earners have seen a wage increase of 13%.Shifting away from the "grow at all costs" mindset of the previous supercycle has also incentivized governments — especially in the developed world — to do more to police markets and protect consumers. Whether it's capping the price of drugs or enforcing antitrust rules more aggressively, polls suggest Americans want to see <a target="_blank" href="https://prospect.org/economy/2024-08-27-polling-voters-action-corporate-power/">more limits</a> on <a target="_blank" href="https://today.yougov.com/economy/articles/47798-most-americans-oppose-monopolies-and-support-antitrust-laws">corporate power</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2021/07/20/56-of-americans-support-more-regulation-of-major-technology-companies/">more regulation</a> to safeguard citizens. For the first time in years, the Federal Trade Commission has begun going after pharmaceutical middlemen, opposing mergers between grocery giants, and taking big swings at Big Tech.The new supercycle will also have profound consequences worldwide, upending how and where money is most likely to flow. In China, the debt bubble that formed in the property sector during the previous cycle is sucking cash away from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-stimulus-plan-wall-street-stock-market-economy-2024-9">businesses and households</a>, undermining China's bid to become the world's leading economic superpower. And with Europe growing more slowly than the US, foreign investors are steering more of their money to America. In the second quarter of this year, foreign investors owned $8.2 trillion worth of US Treasury bonds, up by 7.3% from a year earlier. Foreign investment is also soaring in US corporate bonds (up by 9.8%) and US equities (up by 23%). Quinlan says he expects the US economy to continue outperforming the rest of the world, given the fiscal and demographic challenges facing the European Union, Japan, and China. In an era of increasing instability, when former sources of growth are flailing, the United States is widely viewed as the safest place to find returns."Not lost on investors is the fact that the US economy remains among the most competitive, innovative, and resilient in the world," Quinlan wrote in a recent note to investors. "Aerospace or agriculture, energy or entertainment, transportation or technology, goods or services — pick any sector or activity, and there's a good chance the US leads the rest of the world. All of this has helped fuel demand among foreign investors for US securities of all stripes." America's economic diversification is also expected to give it a leg up in one of the most volatile features of the new era: trade conflict. The US and China are already battling for control over critical industries like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jiinping-future-tech-global-economy-semiconductors-military-failing-2022-9">semiconductors</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-crushing-us-america-battle-energy-evs-batteries-tech-war-2023-5">batteries</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-crush-tesla-elon-musk-american-ev-industry-2024-2">electric cars</a> — and the tit for tat will be especially costly for less diversified economies. Germany's dependence on manufacturing, for example, places its most essential industries on a collision course with China's ambitions. And while the United States is well positioned to weather the storm, that doesn't mean it won't be rough. The world has never faced a challenge like the skyrocketing flow of exports from China up and down the value chain. It's a dynamic that threatens to imbalance international trade by flooding the market with cheap goods of all kinds. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-shock-explainer-us-economy-trade-dumping-supply-glut-yellen-2024-4">China Shock 2.0</a> "will not go down easily," Quinlan tells me.For over a decade we have become accustomed to the economy working a certain way — if this, then that. As a new supercycle emerges, investors, businesses, and governments that structured themselves around the old model may experience acute shocks. To succeed in this unfamiliar new world, they'll have to adjust their expectations and find ways to harness the supercycle's opportunities. It's the economic equivalent of natural selection: As the economy evolves, those who adapt will be most likely to survive. The days of economic growth are back. The future belongs to those who can grow with it.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/linette-lopez">Linette Lopez</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider.

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