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The vulnerable GOP congressman convinced that economic interest voters will save him from the Trump and abortion backlash

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Hamas carried out a devastating attack on <keyword id="19900599" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="israel" source="keywords">Israel</keyword> one year ago, killing about 1,200 people.</li><li>The terror attack has helped push the Middle East to the brink of a wider regional war.</li></ul>On the early morning of October 7, 2023, air raid sirens began blaring in Israel, warning its citizens that an attack was in progress.<br /><br />Hamas, a militant group much of the West has designated a terrorist organization, launched a highly coordinated strike that the Israel Defense Forces would later say killed about 1,200 people.<br /><br />One year after the massacre, the Middle East has only plunged deeper into violence and is on the brink of a broader war.<br /><br />Paths to de-escalation, largely facilitated by the US, have repeatedly failed. And Israel appears to be inching closer to a direct conflict with Iran, a grim prospect that has been avoided for years as the two countries limited their fight to proxies in a shadow war.<br /><br />The results of the yearlong conflict, with origins that date back decades, have been costly for both Israel and the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," noted Chuck Freilich, a former deputy national security advisor who served for over 20 years in Israel's security establishment.<br /><br />"Israel has turned the tide and has the Axis of Resistance on the defensive. Hamas has been defeated militarily, though not politically, and remains in political control in Gaza," Freilich told Business Insider, adding that Iran had come to be in a vulnerable position.<br /><br />"Conversely, Israel was in the midst of a multi-front war which may result in significant damage to its homefront and is deeply isolated in the world," he added.<br /><br /><h2>A year of bloodshed</h2>Israel's response to Hamas' attack on October 7 was a massive bombardment campaign and later ground incursion in Gaza, which Palestinian authorities say have left about 42,000 people dead.<br /><br />Amid the early stages of that campaign, the first high-profile <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/yemen-navy-warship-missiles-intercepted-2f5fc9c8a3737f762b29d5c53ec08a5b">expansion of the greater conflict blew open in late October,</a> when Yemen's Houthi rebels <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-iran-idf-houthi-rebels-hijack-ship-red-sea-2023-11">began attacking commercial ships</a> seeking passage through the Suez Canal and the Gulf of Aden.<br /><br />The Houthis, historically backed and armed by Iran, said they were declaring a show of support for Hamas by attacking ships linked to Israel, though they were often found to have used drones, missiles, and raiding parties to harass vessels with no direct relation to it.<br /><br />    <div type="image" title="Houthi supporters in Yemen brandish rifles and Yemeni and Palestinian flags in July." height="3840" width="5760" msid="114014767" hostid="261"></div>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-are-houthis-yemen-rebels-attacking-ships-red-sea-2024-1">Houthi attacks</a> threatening to close off a vital international shipping lane, the US and its allies and partners established a heavy military presence in the Red Sea to fend off the rebels.<br /><br />January saw the West's most direct and overt military involvement in the conflict, when the US, UK, and their allies <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">barraged Houthi targets</a> with airborne, surface, and subsurface-launched strikes after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-launches-strikes-houthis-following-shipping-attacks-2024-1">warning the rebels repeatedly</a> to cease their attacks.<br /><br />The campaign has dragged on for almost a year with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-the-west-cant-stop-houthi-missile-attacks-on-ships-2024-1">no end in sight</a>, and the US has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-carrier-left-middle-east-ending-show-force-2024-9">rotating multiple aircraft carrier groups</a> into the region while carrying out further strikes on Houthi territory.<br /><br />To the north, Syria became the site of further conflict in April, when Israel launched a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/deadly-israeli-strike-syria-could-put-us-forces-crosshairs-iran-2024-4" target="_blank">strike on the Iranian Consulate in Damascus</a>, killing several senior officials of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, including two generals.<br /><br />Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at The Washington Institute for Near East Policy, previously told BI that the strike was significant because it was the "first time Israel struck an official Iranian government-affiliated site with high-ranking people inside."<br /><br />    <div type="image" title="Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad, and other officials check the site of Israeli attack on Iran consulate in Damascus in April," height="2080" width="3040" msid="114014764" hostid="261"></div>Iran followed up with a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-forces-destroyed-iran-missiles-drones-massive-air-defense-battle-2024-4">long-range attack on Israel at an unprecedented scale</a>, launching what Israeli authorities said were 170 attack drones, 120 ballistic missiles, and 30 cruise missiles — almost all of which were intercepted.<br /><br />Israel then responded with its<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/explosion-heard-in-iran-according-to-state-media-2024-4"> own strikes on multiple cities in Iran</a>. And in July, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ismail-haniyeh-top-hamas-leader-killed-in-iran-2024-7">Ismail Haniyeh</a>, the political leader of Hamas, was killed just after he attended the swearing-in of Iran's new president.<br /><br /><keyword id="20394829" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="haniyeh" source="keywords">Haniyeh</keyword> was widely reported to have been killed by a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/01/world/middleeast/how-hamas-leader-haniyeh-killed-iran-bomb.html?smid=tw-share">remotely detonated explosive device</a> that was planted months before his death in a guesthouse he was using in Tehran.<br /><br />Israel also claimed responsibility that week for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-tried-killing-top-hezbollah-commander-beirut-with-us-bounty-2024-7" target="_blank">killing the Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr</a>, a senior advisor to the Lebanese militant organization's top leader, Hassan <keyword id="20081934" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="nasrallah" source="keywords">Nasrallah</keyword>, via an air-launched strike in Beirut.<br /><br />    <div type="image" title="A billboard in Beirut. depicts Ismail Haniyeh, Qasem Soleimani, and Fuad Shukr." height="3067" width="4600" msid="114014762" hostid="261"></div>Meanwhile, Hezbollah, a longtime enemy of Israel, has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-lebanon-israeli-positions-gaza-hamas-2023-10">exchanging fire</a> with Israel on its southern border since the October 7 attack, forcing hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides to flee.<br /><br />In one of the most dramatic attacks the region has yet seen, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-backed-hezbollah-members-hurt-after-pagers-just-weirdly-exploded-2024-9">thousands of pagers and communication devices</a> used by Hezbollah detonated in September, injuring more than 2,800 people and killing at least eight.<br /><br />Mossad, Israel's spy agency, is widely believed to have orchestrated the attack by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-pagers-had-dark-feature-made-them-more-gruesome-2024-10">planting explosives inside the devices</a> before they were distributed, but Israel has not claimed responsibility.<br /><br />    <div type="image" title="This picture shows a fire that emerged after an Israeli bombardment in south Lebanon." height="1588" width="2408" msid="114014770" hostid="261"></div>Later in September, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9" target="_blank">Israel launched a strike</a> that killed Nasrallah at Hezbollah's headquarters in Beirut, bringing an end to his 32-year leadership of the militant group.<br /><br />Then, at the start of this month Israel began what it called a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-launches-ground-offensive-into-lebanon-destroy-hezbollah-targets-2024-9" target="_blank">limited ground incursion into Lebanon</a>, saying it sought to dismantle Hezbollah's positions and artillery in the south.<br /><br />Iran moved soon after to launch a second major attack on Israel. Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles, including its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10" target="_blank">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach 5.<br /><br />It's unclear whether Israel might expand its scope in Lebanon, where it faces difficult terrain and Hezbollah troops who have had years to embed and prepare.<br /><br />Lebanon's health ministry has said more than 2,000 people have been killed so far in the ensuing strikes and raids.<br /><br />Tehran is reported to have fired about 200 missiles at Israel on October 2, including its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">advanced Fattah missile</a> capable of reaching speeds of Mach-5.<br /><br /><h2>Escalations don't bode well for the Middle East</h2>History shows there's little chance that Israel will let that attack pass without a response, as Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin <keyword id="19934489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="netanyahu" source="keywords">Netanyahu</keyword> indicated in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUSI5tQuXys">a speech to the United Nations General Assembly</a> on September 27.<br /><br />"If you strike us, we will strike you. There is no place in Iran that the long arm of Israel cannot reach, and that's true of the entire Middle East," he said.<br /><br />Meanwhile, last month saw<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-fed-up-massive-protest-strike-demanding-gaza-deal-hostages-2024-9"> hundreds of thousands of Israeli protesters</a> rallying against Netanyahu's failure to secure some sort of cease-fire deal that could lead to the release of the hostages remaining in Gaza after the attack one year ago.<br /><br />Gili Roman, whose sister was kidnapped on October 7 and later released and whose relative Carmel Gat was among the six slain hostages recovered by the IDF in early September, told BI last month that Netanyahu and his government were "prioritizing themselves" over the hostages.<br /><br />The anticipation of yet another cycle of escalating retaliation has set the world on edge, amid fears that an all-out war between Iran and Israel will destabilize the entire region.<br /><br />Globally, the immediate concern is that oil supplies will diminish significantly should conflict spill over to the rest of the Middle East.<br /><br />Last week, Citigroup analysts estimated that a major strike on Iranian oil infrastructure could reduce global oil supplies by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-10-02/latest-oil-market-news-and-analysis-for-oct-3">1.5 million barrels per day.</a><br /><br /><h2><strong>Israel ignores US red lines</strong></h2>US President <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> has for a year been trying to avoid the war growing into a wider regional conflict that could pull in the US and other world powers.<br /><br />He has repeatedly sought to broker a cease-fire in Gaza, organize more humanitarian support for civilians, and limit Israel's campaign.<br /><br />But Netanyahu has repeatedly ignored Biden's red lines and has continued to push forward against Hamas even as the civilian death toll spiraled and international opposition to Israel's campaign mounted.<br /><br />The US has also helped shield Israel against Iranian missile attacks sparked by the April killings and recent attacks on Hezbollah, and has positioned troops in the area to deter further Iranian aggression, while also seeking to tamp down the conflict.<br /><br />Meanwhile, as Israel intensified its attacks against Hezbollah two weeks ago, the US announced that it had brokered a possible cease-fire agreement — only for Israel to assassinate Nasrallah one day later.<br /><br />Critics of US policy believe that Netanyahu is acting in his own self-interest to try to hold together his fragile coalition government, whose far-right members support intensifying the war against Iran and its allies.<br /><br />"Netanyahu doesn't care about his friendship with Biden, or even about Israel's dependence on the United States. He cares only about his near-term political interests. Everyone but Biden can see this," wrote Andrew Exum, a former US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Middle East policy, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/10/israel-war-biden-iran/680155/">in The Atlantic</a> last week.<br /><br /><h2>The global economy on edge</h2>When the conflict began a year ago, there were fears that wider conflict in the Middle East could impact the global economy.<br /><br />Oil prices did rise in the days after the October 7 attacks and Brent crude peaked above $92 a barrel later that month, but then started declining to about $73 in mid-December. In contrast, oil hit about $130 a barrel after <keyword id="19900702" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="vladimir-putin" source="keywords">Vladimir Putin</keyword> invaded Ukraine in February 2022.<br /><br />However, experts recently told Business Insider that a wider war in the region could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/global-economy-israel-iran-war-oil-growth-inflation-hurricane-china-2024-10">choke global economic growth and reignite inflation</a>.<br /><br />The Bank of Israel estimated in May that the costs arising from the war would total about $66 billion through the end of next year — equivalent to roughly 12% of Israel's GDP, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/year-war-creates-cracks-israels-borrowing-strength-2024-10-06/">according to Reuters</a>.<br /><br />And in June, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2024/06/05/scars-of-conflict-are-deeper-and-longer-lasting-in-middle-east-and-central-asia">the IMF noted</a> that the long-term economic effects of severe conflict on real GDP per capita in the Middle East were particularly pronounced, compared to other regions.<br /><br />It said that countries in the Middle East can expect to experience a roughly 10% decline in real GDP per capita a decade after the onset of a conflict, compared to pre-conflict levels.<br /><br /><em>Correction: October 7, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misstated when Israel launched its strike that killed Hassan Nasrallah. That attack took place before Israel's ground incursion into Lebanon, not after, and the subsequent Iranian missile strike came soon after the Israeli ground assault, not hours after Nasrallah's killing. The story also misspelled the name of the former deputy national security advisor in Israel. He is Chuck Freilich, not Chuck Frielich.</em><br />

One year on, the Middle East is spiraling deeper into violence

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="6354484" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="donald-trump" source="Orion">Donald Trump</keyword> appears to have called the wife of his supporter who was killed at Saturday’s rally.</li><li>The supporter, <keyword id="22410307" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Corey-Comperatore" source="keywords">Corey Comperatore</keyword>, was said to have died shielding his family during an <keyword id="20039518" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="assassination-attempt" source="keywords">assassination attempt</keyword> on Trump.</li><li>In an interview published Monday, Helen Comperatore said <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword> had called her but Trump had not.</li></ul>Former President Donald Trump appears to have called the widow of the man who was killed in the attempt to assassinate him.<br /><br />Helen Comperatore said in a social-media post on Tuesday that she had talked to Trump earlier that day, according to The New York Times. On Monday, the New York Post published an interview in which she said President Joe Biden had called her but Trump had not.<br /><br />Corey Comperatore, a 50-year-old former fire chief from Pennsylvania, was a supporter of Trump and attended the rally with his wife and daughters. His family said he was shot while shielding them from the gunfire.<br /><br />In an interview with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nypost.com/2024/07/15/us-news/corey-comperatores-widow-reveals-his-final-words-before-he-was-killed-at-trump-rally/?utm_source=sailthru&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=news_alert&amp;utm_content=20240715?&amp;utm_source=sailthru&amp;lctg=645a5727e4688b7b57029c53&amp;utm_term=NYP%20-%20News%20Alerts">The New York Post</a> that was published Monday at 4:44 p.m. ET, his wife, Helen Comperatore, said her husband was her "hero" and that the last thing he said to them was "get down!"<br /><br />Helen Comperatore told the outlet that, at that point, she had not heard from Trump. The former president said he was shot <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-thomas-matthew-crooks-the-trump-rally-shooter-2024-7">during the rally</a>; two others were shot and critically wounded.<br /><br />Representatives for the Trump campaign, the White House, and the Biden campaign did not immediately respond to requests for comment from Business Insider. BI attempted to reach Helen Comperatore through email.<br /><br /> "He was very kind and said he would continue to call me in the days and weeks ahead," she said of Trump on social media, according to The Times. BI was unable to verify Comperatore’s comments; her Facebook profile was most recently set to private.<br /><br />In his first statement after the shooting on Saturday, Trump wrote on Truth Social: "I want to thank The United States Secret Service, and all of Law Enforcement, for their rapid response on the shooting that just took place in Butler, Pennsylvania. Most importantly, I want to extend my condolences to the family of the person at the Rally who was killed, and also to the family of another person that was badly injured."<br /><br />In another post on Sunday, Trump added, "Our love goes out to the other victims and their families. We pray for the recovery of those who were wounded, and hold in our hearts the memory of the citizen who was so horribly killed."<br /><br />Trump's team has also shared a link to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/AlinaHabba/status/1812449354508128726">GoFundMe</a> that was "authorized" by the former president and is raising funds that will go towards the victims' families. The page had accrued more than $4.5 million in donations as of Monday evening.<br /><br />On Sunday, Trump arrived in Milwaukee for the Republican National Committee convention, which kicked off on Monday. Trump was formally nominated as the GOP candidate for president and announced he had selected <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-trump-selected-jd-dance-running-mate-vice-president-2024-7">Sen. JD Vance</a> of Ohio as his vice presidential running mate.<br /><br />Comperatore told the Post her family did receive a call from Biden but that she did not speak with him.<br /><br />"I didn't talk to Biden. I didn't want to talk to him," she said. "My husband was a devout Republican, and he would not have wanted me to talk to him."<br /><br />While some Republicans, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/JDVance1/status/1812280973628965109">Vance</a>, blamed Biden's rhetoric for the attempted assassination of Trump, the FBI has not identified a motive for the shooting.<br /><br />Comperatore said she did not think Biden was responsible for her husband's death. She told the Post she planned to vote for Trump but was not very involved in politics.<br /><br />"I don't have any ill-will towards Joe Biden," she said, adding, "He didn't do anything to my husband. A 20-year-old despicable kid did."<br /><br /><em>July 16, 2024: This story was updated to include reporting by The New York Times that Helen Comperatore said she had talked to Donald Trump on Tuesday and that Corey Comperatore's sister said the family had also spoken with representatives of the Trump campaign on Monday night.</em><br />

The widow of the Trump supporter who died during the assassination attempt reportedly says she talked to Trump on Tuesday

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President Joe Biden dropped out of the presidential race after weeks of mounting pressure.</li><li>Biden endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace him and become the Democratic nominee.</li></ul><p>After weeks of mounting pressure, President Joe Biden announced Sunday <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">he would drop out</a> of the presidential race.</p><p>The Democrats now only have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7">a few weeks to rally behind a new nominee,</a> who will go on to face former President Donald Trump in November.</p><p><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-endorses-kamala-harris-after-dropping-out-2024-7">Biden's endorsement of Vice President Kamala Harris</a> places her as a frontrunner, though it's uncertain if any other potential candidates will choose to challenge her. Harris accepted Biden's endorsement on Sunday evening.</p><p>As of Monday morning, many former and current Democratic lawmakers have already pledged their support for the vice president.</p><h2 id="140d8582-fa7c-4780-aa3c-dc7cca5c04f5">Sen. Brian Schatz of Hawaii</h2><h2 id="8b89469f-dfdf-41fd-9921-64a90020be3e">Sen. Chris Murphy of Connecticut</h2><h2 id="2648fa09-c860-40d0-a62e-11bf328b48f3">Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg</h2> <h2 id="7e095f48-7e03-4a72-b871-028249adef27">California Gov. Gavin Newsom</h2> <h2 id="297971cb-49bf-4b42-aac7-875c2aeb1154">Former President Bill Clinton and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton</h2><h2 id="8d8d7941-8766-45be-b1f3-b897fee46084">Former Georgia State Rep. Stacey Abrams</h2> <h2 id="5e165ec1-a01b-4b83-94f5-37b2830bc881">New York House Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez</h2> <h2 id="c11a5029-9133-4b6a-abe6-7d5691557236">Gov. Jared Polis of Colorado</h2>  <h2 id="54892a93-687e-4696-bd84-583680f4b412">Gov. Phil Murphy of New Jersey</h2> <h2 id="f9cc2138-3ddd-427b-b89c-1bd5f3cfc601">Sen. Tim Kaine of Virginia</h2> <h2 id="018e5a2b-eac9-40e7-86c1-57b2e5c076e0">Sen. Mark Warner of Virginia</h2> <h2 id="8bdeb5e4-f068-40ea-8945-8f46faef03b5">Sen. Patty Murray of Washington</h2> <h2 id="4c3d4753-ac3c-4a6f-9a42-483d6467b7fb">Rep. Nanette Barragán of California — chair of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus</h2> <h2 id="3fa5aedb-e12c-494d-9828-efc591b4988e"><strong>Rep. Jared Huffman</strong> <strong>of California</strong></h2> <h2 id="5a0b5cb3-d0c6-4f20-bda4-8977eb58388f">The chairs of the Congressional Black Caucus and the CBC's Political Action Committee — Reps. Gregory Meeks and Steven Horsford</h2> <h2 id="ee715721-b8ca-448c-afdd-366922ee5620">Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia</h2> <h2 id="08f2348d-bea9-4d3b-904a-2d46c07ff4d8"><strong>Rep. Jamaal Bowman of New York</strong></h2> <h2 id="6992552a-c0b3-4c3d-88fa-7295def3a003"><strong>Rep. Ted Lieu of California</strong></h2> <h2 id="c9fe8d8c-1c78-4efc-81ff-1339f87520f0">Rep. Pramila Jayapal of Washington, chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus</h2> <h2 id="2383d9f7-6d87-4db7-9cc3-516176ac2fd4">Sen. Chris Coons of Delaware</h2> <h2 id="c715d254-e2ec-495e-a20e-60f55d6379cc">Rep. Ilhan Omar of Minnesota</h2> <h2 id="1603f711-d1ce-43c3-8686-2b97edbbb607">Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto of Nevada</h2> <h2 id="8b465c89-abe3-499d-9635-20fabb3bbc16">Rep. Maxwell Alejandro Frost of Florida</h2> <h2 id="9f4dbcfc-24c1-4c39-91eb-b13b5b211f60">Rep. Jared Moskowitz of Florida</h2> <h2 id="855c7c03-a3b3-4190-8bd6-1dd26ca4c44f">Sen. Tammy Baldwin of Wisconsin</h2><h2 id="125a1886-cdae-407f-b473-32a68b042468">Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado</h2> <h2 id="77c4b7e4-076b-4946-93f2-0681f16467e2">Gov. Janet Mills of Maine</h2> <h2 id="1a30c9aa-85b7-4065-804b-b2906ec73d90">Sen. Sherrod Brown of Ohio</h2> <h2 id="6f9f9e30-9b8c-475a-8afd-27aff6b961da">Rep. Jim Clyburn of South Carolina</h2><h2 id="9798a916-a27c-4efe-bae6-d719e51dc7b9">Gov. Andy Beshear of Kentucky</h2> <h2 id="f596f640-a1f2-4ee1-826d-c0554a682791">Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York</h2> <h2 id="dcd4b624-fdfa-40cb-b519-cb372b24d645">Mayor Eric Adams of New York City</h2> <h2 id="58cf6f96-6d7c-4d67-aca9-a820cad36363">Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts</h2> <h2 id="44418919-ba22-4692-9616-55361f722a54">Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts</h2> <h2 id="145a874b-2501-4ece-b0f6-9dce92c403b1">John Kerry, former US senator and Secretary of State</h2><h2 id="0b7c7f83-f05d-4f1f-b837-a8e2ded89abf">Rep. Adam Schiff of California</h2><h2 id="c8c726f8-3ee3-4a72-b762-5089163a7153">Sen. Alex Padilla of California</h2> <h2 id="5688e180-c1bf-42f9-9ee3-8dba5a379198">Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona</h2><h2 id="d76fb391-5ed9-4dc4-881c-f634ed8f8dd0">Gov. Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania</h2><h2 id="6635d2ed-02ea-4074-927a-e4dd477db8d0">Gov. Roy Cooper of North Carolina</h2><h2 id="b1303406-29f1-439e-aacc-cfb43ea31425">Sen. Jacky Rosen of Nevada</h2> <h2 id="affef74c-9fdd-44a4-af35-f283bd0e84e2">Sen. Martin Heinrich of New Mexico</h2> <h2 id="3fc29119-4c14-46ba-b730-9070313e3ff1">Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota</h2><h2 id="8f044926-0db3-4489-8993-3ab574b75695">Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington</h2> <h2 id="cb366c0b-195f-4b58-a548-60c6d566dfa4">Rep. Summer Lee of Pennsylvania</h2><h2 id="979a6888-f4ec-4ecf-ad0b-120f5dc59704">Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania</h2> <h2 id="e3526666-5c71-4bc2-a501-a460a18e3e82">Sen. Ron Wyden of Oregon</h2> <h2 id="e3000c49-9e7e-4dde-8ed3-a387caeaf642">Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado</h2><h2 id="f0d15a30-2f15-4934-8108-2529ab586550">Sen. John Hickenlooper of Colorado</h2> <h2 id="0b274e97-da2f-4e44-a033-a3707753e8ae">Rep. Katie Porter of California</h2><h2 id="8deb7254-e3be-4311-8677-95ecfa4f8922">Sen. Laphonza Butler of California</h2> <h2 id="ce59cea7-08be-410c-9cda-49c8fed71142">Sen. Ben Cardin of Minnesota</h2> <h2 id="38362e1a-b3a3-47cc-a480-fb12e060a5d9">Rep. Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts</h2><h2 id="c4d8ed6f-ea23-471f-b430-98938b9ce10a">New York Gov. Kathy Hochul</h2> <h2 id="fb7b73ca-779c-42e7-8e62-4cfd0435de89">Sen. Mazie Hirono of Hawaii</h2> <h2 id="a74eaaff-0c0c-4cb6-bde8-411f358d4638">Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota</h2> <h2 id="9d1c1043-0dce-4279-b6d8-bfbfea7fcbd0">Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan</h2> <h2 id="b79c2d33-0a9f-4ff4-9791-c272210dd434">Sen. Debbie Stabenow of Michigan</h2> <h2 id="80efc6a5-e0d6-4728-a56a-61d5e5abf91f">Rep. Pete Aguilar of California — House Democratic Caucus chair</h2> <h2 id="a2fe7004-0e87-4d5b-9db1-4903016a70e2">Rep. Cori Bush of Missouri</h2>

All the Democrats who have endorsed Kamala Harris to replace Joe Biden after he dropped out

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris">Kamala Harris</a> sat for a live interview with Fox News. It was heated.</li><li>Host Bret Baier pressed Harris on a survey in which respondents said the US was on the wrong track.</li></ul><p>Kamala Harris faced off with Fox News host Bret Baier on Wednesday — and things got tense quickly.</p><p><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6363352689112">Baier pressed Harris</a> on policies he pinned on Joe Biden's administration, hammering her on border security and noting one recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2024/national-survey-finds-presidential-race-extremely-tight-enthusiasm-voting-high-democrats-republicans-low-independents.php">survey</a> where nearly 80% of the respondents said the US was on the wrong track.</p><p>If so many people think things aren't going well, then why should they vote for you, Baier asked Harris, given she'd been Joe Biden's vice president for nearly four years.</p><p>Harris shot back, attempting to put the focus on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump">Donald Trump</a>. She said he'd spent the past decade trying to divide the country — and said a Harris presidency "will not be a continuation of Joe Biden's presidency."</p><p>Harris said her ideas would strengthen the economy and touted what's been common in her stump speech: a plan to strengthen small businesses, take care of young parents, and bolster affordable housing.</p><p>"People are ready to chart a new way forward, and they want a president who has a plan for the future and a plan that is sound and will strengthen our country," Harris said. "My plan for the economy does exactly that."</p><p>Harris said Trump's economic plan would "ignite inflation" and lead to a recession by the middle of next year. "Those are the facts," she said, citing 16 Nobel laureates who she said backed her plans.</p><p>Baier, who hosts "Special Report with Bret Baier," again cited the poll and pushed Harris to explain how she'd be different from Biden. "Under a Harris administration, what would the major changes be, and what would stay the same?" he asked.</p><p>"Well, I mean, I'm obviously not Joe Biden, and so that would be one change," Harris shot back. "But also, I think it's important to say, with 20 days to go, I'm not Donald Trump."</p><p>The poll was the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.marquette.edu/news-center/2024/national-survey-finds-presidential-race-extremely-tight-enthusiasm-voting-high-democrats-republicans-low-independents.php">Marquette Law School Poll</a>, taken earlier this month and released Wednesday. It said 79% of people surveyed thought the country was off track.</p><p>Still, the same poll put the presidential race in a dead heat, with 48% of likely voters choosing Harris and 47% choosing Trump. It surveyed 886 registered voters nationwide.</p><p>Meanwhile, Baier asked Harris about the US border with Mexico: "How many illegal immigrants would you estimate your administration has released into the country over the last 3.5 years?" he asked.</p><p>Harris didn't answer the question directly. She said Democrats and Republicans had worked on a bill to address the issue but that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-immigration-bipartisan-border-security-us-mexico-democrats-2024-1">Trump had ordered Republicans to vote against it</a>, dooming the measure.</p>

Kamala Harris defends her economic plan and insists she won't be more of Joe Biden in a tense interview with Fox News 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Joe Biden and Donald Trump met for their first debate of 2024 on Thursday.</li><li>It was a total disaster for Biden, owing to his visibly frail performance.</li></ul><p>Joe Biden and Donald Trump met for their first debate of the year on Thursday.</p><p>It was a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-trump-debate-gamble-strategy-risk-election-2024-6">high-stakes gamble</a> for the president, who has consistently trailed the former president in both national and swing state polls.</p><p>It went horribly.</p><h2 id="5e43cb3c-2753-464e-9934-35957312f69f">Biden started off especially weak</h2><p>From the very beginning of the debate, there was an unmistakable frailty to Biden's demeanor. <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/KellyO/status/1806505436457189594">According to NBC</a>, he has a cold.</p><p>Responding to the CNN moderator Jake Tapper's first question, which was about the economy, Biden appeared out of breath. He hastily began reciting facts while slurring and occasionally omitting words.</p><p>At times, Biden uttered nonsensical phrases.</p><p>On another question about the war in Gaza, Biden flubbed, saying, "We are the biggest producer of support for Israel of anyone in the world."</p><p>During another question about the national debt, Biden inexplicably concluded by saying "We finally beat Medicare."</p><p>"Well, he's right," Trump responded. "He did beat Medicare. He beat it to death."</p><p>Trump, for his part, effectively capitalized on Biden's weak performance, maintaining a calm demeanor and staying disciplined while occasionally making jabs at the president.</p><p>"I really don't know what he said at the end of that sentence," said Trump. "I don't think he knows what he said either."</p><h2 id="a4e4d4fe-54cd-4e8d-8fe0-e4dbf125fd95"><strong>Biden grew more energetic over time — but his responses remained muddled</strong></h2><p>Over the course of the debate, Biden's voice grew slightly less hoarse. But the incoherence in many of his responses remained.</p><p>Many Republican elected officials went into tonight claiming that Biden <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-debate-drugs-expectations-republicans-2024-6">would be on drugs</a>, anticipating that the president would deliver a relatively strong performance.</p><p>They ended up being wrong — but in a way that worked to their benefit.</p><h2 id="c532f381-e5c8-405c-a02a-15490e1ce15a">Trump told plenty of lies. But Biden's poor performance overshadowed that.</h2><p>Even as the former president maintained a relatively even keel at the debate, he told a litany of lies.</p><p>He falsely blamed Biden for the numerous indictments he's facing: Two of them were brought by local officials in New York and Georgia, while two others originated from the Justice Department, which operates independently of the president.</p><p>Trump claimed that food prices have "doubled and tripled and quadrupled" under Biden, a gross exaggeration of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ers.usda.gov/data-products/chart-gallery/gallery/chart-detail/?chartId=58350">25% increase from 2019 to 2023</a>, according to the Department of Agriculture.</p><p>He also claimed Biden used the phrase "super predators" to describe African Americans, even though there's no record of the president making those comments.</p><p>It hardly ended up mattering: Biden's poor performance outshined all of it.</p><h2 id="7faf279d-aa1b-41c0-ba44-b0d7f6b6766e"><strong>There's another debate on September 10. Biden will have to think hard about whether to do it.</strong></h2><p>Both Biden and Trump have agreed to another debate on September 10.</p><p>If you're a Biden ally, there's a few different ways to look at that: It could be an opportunity to reset what is obviously a very bad impression that was set tonight, or it could be yet another forum for Biden to show weakness.</p><p>Thursday's debate was the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-watch-presidential-debate-trump-biden-what-time-2024-6">earliest general election debate</a> on record: though both men are the presumptive nominees of their respective parties, they have yet to be officially nominated.</p><p>There are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reelection-democrats-harris-newsom-whitmer-klobuchar-booker-cooper-moore-2024-2">several other Democrats</a> who have long been seen as potential Biden alternatives, should he choose to drop out.</p><p>But it's unclear if the president would opt to do so, or whether he'll face such calls from within his party.</p><p>There's also the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-if-biden-ends-his-reelection-bid-1968-dnc-2024-2">potential for a chaotic convention</a> in August if the party has to choose a new nominee, given nthe ideological divisions within the party.</p><p>After the debate, former senior Obama White House advisor David Axelrod, who reportedly triggered Biden's ire in the past over raising questions about the president's standing, was unrelenting in his analysis.</p><p>"I think there was a sense of shock actually on how he came out at the beginning of this debate," Axelrod said on CNN, while trying to give Biden some credit for addressing issues like abortion, "how his voice sounded — he seemed a little disoriented at the beginning of the debate. He did get stronger as the debate went on, but by that time, I think the panic had set in."</p><p>Axelrod agreed with other CNN panelists that there will now be discussions on whether Biden should step aside.</p>

The first debate was a complete disaster for Joe Biden

<ul class="summary-list"><li><em>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</em></li></ul><p><strong>Welcome back! </strong>Yes, there is such a thing as a "Vape Phone." And yes, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vape-phone-swype-replace-smartphone-dumb-phone-iphone-review-2024-7"><u>we did try it out</u></a>.</p><p>In today's big story, President Joe Biden <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7"><u>ended his reelection bid</u></a>. Here's what <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7"><u>happens next</u></a>.</p><p><strong>What's on deck:</strong></p><ul><li><strong>Markets:</strong> Some alternatives to high-yield savings accounts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/financial-planner-what-to-do-when-interest-rates-drop-2024-7"><u>for when interest rates drop</u></a>.</li><li><strong>Tech:</strong> Why Marc Andreessen's argument about Trump benefiting "Little Tech" <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/marc-andreessens-endorsement-donald-trump-tech-industry-silicon-valley-2024-7"><u>doesn't add up</u></a>.</li><li><strong>Business:</strong> The era of working multiple jobs is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/end-remote-work-could-hurt-overemployed-workers-job-jugglers-2024-7"><u>coming to an end</u></a>.</li></ul><p>But first, I'm calling it quits.</p><p><strong><em>If this was forwarded to you, </em></strong><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today"><strong><em><u>sign up here.</u></em></strong></a></p><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097"><strong>Biden bows out</strong></h2><div type="image" title="biden" height="880" width="1176" msid="111934829" hostid="261" sizebytes="74714"></div><p><strong>Joe Biden has had enough.</strong></p><p>The president <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7"><u>ended his reelection campaign</u></a> on Sunday, the culmination of mounting pressure from his party after a disastrous debate last month.</p><p>In a letter posted <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/read-bidens-letter-message-announcing-he-quit-race-2024-7"><u>on social media</u></a>, Biden wrote he believed it was "in the best interest of my party and the country" to exit the race and "focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term."</p><p>He said he would speak to the country later this week about his decision, but didn't provide more details.</p><p>Reactions about the news from <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-billionaires-respond-biden-drops-out-elon-musk-2024-7"><u>business leaders like Elon Musk and Reid Hoffman</u></a> ranged from criticism of the Democratic party to praise for Biden. Meanwhile, former President Donald Trump said <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-reaction-biden-drops-out-of-election-truth-social-2024-7"><u>in a post on Truth Social</u></a> that "Crooked Joe Biden was not fit to run for President."</p><p>Biden's decision partially ends what has been a chaotic few weeks for his party. Democrats have argued — initially behind closed doors <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chuck-schumer-hakeem-jeffries-democratic-leaders-biden-drop-out-2024-7"><u>and then publicly</u></a> — over whether the president was their best choice amid concerns over his age.</p><p>Biden's departure from the race came with an endorsement: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-endorses-kamala-harris-after-dropping-out-2024-7"><u>Vice President Kamala Harris</u></a>. The choice has long been viewed as the most straightforward pick for the party <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-replacing-biden-with-harris-for-campaign-funds-2024-7"><u>due in part to campaign finance laws</u></a>.</p><p>Harris said she was "honored" to have the endorsement and intended to "<a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-wants-to-unite-democratic-party-defeat-trump-biden-2024-7"><u>earn and win this nomination</u></a>."</p><div type="image" title="kamala harris" height="544" width="1122" msid="111934834" hostid="261" sizebytes="15086"></div><p><strong>Harris hasn't wasted time trying to secure the nomination.</strong></p><p>Biden's reelection campaign has quickly pivoted to serve Harris, making it an uphill battle for any Democrat <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-presidential-campaign-strength-biden-announcement-future-election-2024-7"><u>looking to challenge her</u></a>, writes Business Insider's Brent D. Griffiths. Plenty of Democrats have already followed Biden in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-endorsing-kamala-harris-to-replace-joe-biden-2024-7"><u>endorsing Harris</u></a>, including <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-hillary-clinton-endorse-kamala-harris-president-trump-election-2024-7"><u>Bill and Hillary Clinton</u></a>.</p><p>But even if Harris seems like a shoo-in for the ticket, the past few weeks have taught us to expect the unexpected in Washington.</p><p>With the party's convention scheduled from August 19-22 in Chicago, BI's Bryan Metzger has a breakdown of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-what-happens-next-2024-7"><u>how the next few weeks could shake out</u></a>. An open convention could mean a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reelection-democrats-harris-newsom-whitmer-klobuchar-booker-cooper-moore-2024-2"><u>wide array of candidates</u></a> throw their hats in the ring.</p><p>Many have made comparisons to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-if-biden-ends-his-reelection-bid-1968-dnc-2024-2"><u>the 1968 Democratic convention</u></a>, which was a contested convention after President Lyndon B. Johnson ended his reelection campaign earlier that year.</p><p>Coincidentally, that convention also took place in Chicago, and Hubert Humphrey, Johnson's vice president, secured the nomination. However, Humphrey lost to Richard Nixon by 110 electoral votes in the general election.</p><p>Democrats could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-should-not-drop-out-election-prediction-allan-lichtman-2024-7"><u>ultimately face the same fate</u></a>, but moving on from Biden was their best chance at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democrats-may-still-lose-biden-stepping-aside-was-best-option-2024-7"><u>shaking up a race they were falling behind in</u></a>, writes Brent.</p><p><strong>Here's the latest news in the wake of Biden's announcement:</strong></p><ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inside-life-and-career-of-kamala-harris-bidens-vp-pick-2020-8"><u>Meet Kamala Harris, America's vice president who Joe Biden endorsed after dropping out of the race</u></a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/democratic-fundraising-after-biden-dropped-out-2024-7"><u>Biden drops out and the money comes rolling in</u></a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-are-kamala-harris-policy-stances-issues-2024-7"><u>Here's where Kamala Harris stands on the issues, from the economy to healthcare</u></a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/names-floated-kamala-harriss-veep-if-biden-drops-out-election-2024-7"><u>The names being floated as Kamala Harris' running mate now that Biden has dropped out</u></a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-kamala-harris-attack-ads-2024-7"><u>Trump's allies had attack ads aimed at Kamala Harris at the ready</u></a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-pelosi-lord-almighty-step-aside-election-2024-7"><u>Biden said only the 'Lord Almighty' could get him to exit the presidential race. Then came Nancy Pelosi</u></a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-campaign-funds-after-he-dropped-out-2024-7"><u>What happens with Biden's war chest now that he's dropped out?</u></a></li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Black and white headshot of Andy Sieg wearing a suit and smiling" height="1000" width="2000" msid="111934828" hostid="261" sizebytes="25324"></div><ol><li><strong>Citi Wealth exodus continues. </strong>More than a dozen bankers from the bank's workplace-wealth group, which serves rich lawyers, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/citi-law-group-wealth-at-work-exits-joe-ryan-andy-sieg-2024-7"><u>left for Bank of Montreal</u></a>. Wealth boss Andy Sieg was undeterred in an internal memo, stating the group was still the "clear market leader — full stop."</li><li><strong>Warren Buffett's go-to market indicator isn't looking great. </strong>The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total US market cap to GDP, hit an all-time peak of 200% on Monday. Years ago, Buffett said if the ratio approaches 200%, "<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-valuation-signal-flashes-warning-market-cap-gdp-ratio-2024-7"><u>you are playing with fire</u></a>."</li><li><strong>When interest rates drop, where should you put your cash? </strong>The silver lining of the Fed's rate policy has been high-yield savings accounts, but a rate cut will make those less appealing. A financial planner <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/financial-planner-what-to-do-when-interest-rates-drop-2024-7"><u>made some suggestions for alternatives</u></a>. (But don't rush it!)</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b"><strong>3 things in tech</strong></h2><div type="image" title="Collage featuring a large photo of Donald Trump towering over a smaller photo of Marc Andreessen" height="1500" width="2000" msid="111934833" hostid="261" sizebytes="99898"></div><ol><li><strong>Big Tech's phony Trumpism</strong>. Famed tech investor Marc Andreessen broke a pattern of longtime Democratic presidential support when he announced he'd be backing Donald Trump this year. Andreessen says a second Trump administration would further a "Little Tech" agenda he favors. But <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/marc-andreessens-endorsement-donald-trump-tech-industry-silicon-valley-2024-7"><u>that argument doesn't make much sense</u></a>, BI's Adam Rogers writes.</li><li><strong>Turn off those auto-updates.</strong> After a massive IT outage disrupted grocery stores, banks, and airport operations around the globe, IT professionals bemoaned the simple way it could've all been avoided: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-you-should-turn-off-auto-updates-crowdstrike-outage-microsoft-2024-7"><u>disabling auto-updates</u></a>.</li><li><strong>To make them safer, OpenAI wants chatbots to chat with each other.</strong> Sam Altman's company <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-new-safety-hack-ai-models-policing-each-other-2024-7"><u>recently unveiled its new technique</u></a> for getting chatbots to reveal their thought processes: having them converse. It's part of a safety initiative in the wake of several high-profile departures from OpenAI's safety team earlier this year.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216"><strong>3 things in business</strong></h2><div type="image" title="man sitting on beach" height="832" width="1114" msid="111934831" hostid="261" sizebytes="20984"></div><ol><li><strong>The sun is setting on overemployment.</strong> Some Americans doubled their income by secretly working multiple remote jobs, which helped them save up, pay debts, or make savvy investments. But with return-to-office mandates and hiring slowdowns, they're bracing for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/end-remote-work-could-hurt-overemployed-workers-job-jugglers-2024-7"><u>a future without the extra paychecks</u></a>.</li><li><strong>Some pandemic boom towns could see big home-buying chances.</strong> Though the housing market is infamously unaffordable, the Southern real estate market is on the verge of a major opportunity for buyers. A real estate analyst explained why <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-home-prices-correction-housing-market-buying-a-house-2024-7"><u>home prices in the South could see double-digit declines</u></a> in the next few years.</li><li><strong>Is tipping culture getting out of hand?</strong> Tipping is creeping into more and more aspects of daily life, and not everyone's buying into it. Two people told BI why they're <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/should-you-tip-restaurant-servers-drivers-rideshare-taxi-nail-salons-2024-7"><u>resisting the tipping ubiquity</u></a> — and shared the places where they think it's still appropriate.</li></ol><p><strong>The Insider Today team: </strong>Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Annie Smith, associate producer, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York.</p>

President Joe Biden ended his reelection bid. What's next?

<p class="drop-cap"><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/powell-60-minutes-interview-fed-interest-rate-cuts-before-election-2024-2">Jay Powell</a> would very much like to stay out of politics, especially in an election year. The Federal Reserve chair doesn't want to be perceived as having a horse in the race come November, especially when one of said horses — <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-interest-rate-cuts-powell-help-democrats-win-elections-inflation-2024-2">Donald Trump</a> — is definitely going to be attacking him from any angle he can.</p><p>Powell, who was appointed as Fed chair by Trump and then reappointed by Joe Biden, has gone to great lengths to emphasize that the central bank is above the political fray. He has repeatedly emphasized that he and the other members of the Federal Open Market Committee are focused solely on economic data when it comes to a decision on monetary policy — which, at the moment, is whether to cut interest rates.</p><p>At a hearing Wednesday, Rep. Patrick McHenry, the Republican from North Carolina who chairs the House Financial Services Committee, noted that some people were predicting that the Fed would cut interest rates multiple times this year, while others predicted it would do nothing. The divergence between the cuts and no-cuts camps has been the biggest economic argument of the year.</p><p>"What say you?" McHenry asked Powell. The Fed chair's response: "I say that, really, it will depend on the economy."</p><p>Beyond the academic argument, whether the Fed cuts interest rates has a significant political bearing this year. The economy and perceptions of it will be vital factors in determining what voters do when they head to the ballot box in the fall. It's an economy that Powell very much has a hand in shaping. Because of that, he really is in the center of the storm.</p><p>"Implicitly, explicitly, passively, or actively, the Fed is making decisions that can have high-leverage influence over the economy and economic outcomes," Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of the advocacy group Employ America, said. "The Fed matters to the state of the economy, and the state of the economy isn't irrelevant to electoral outcomes."</p><p>At the moment, the US economy is in pretty good shape. The labor market is robust, and growth is strong. Inflation is coming back down, though it's not yet at the Fed's 2% target. A soft landing — meaning things settle back down to earth without a recession — is in view. Still, while <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/etf/consumer-sentiment-hits-31-month-high-in-february-inflation-expectations-edge-higher-1033076668">consumer sentiment has improved</a> from where it was, say, six months ago, it's not great. Inflation has cooled, but prices are still higher than they used to be. So are interest rates, which the Fed hiked to combat inflation. Voters are unhappy about higher prices, and they feel weighed down by high interest rates, too. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w32163">recent working paper</a> from former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers and a group of economists found that high borrowing costs were a major driver weighing down people's moods.</p><p>"Consumers, unlike modern economists, consider the cost of money part of their cost of living," the authors wrote.</p><p>It tracks. Interest rates may seem abstract, but they can have a real impact on how people view their financial situations. If you're in the market for a house right now, mortgage rates are eye-popping compared with a few years ago. Maybe you waited for car prices to settle, only to discover now that you can't afford a loan. Or you run a small business, and suddenly the cost of borrowing keeps you up at night.</p>          <p>The White House can't go back in time and reverse the sudden rise in inflation — in which the Fed, by waiting too long to raise interest rates, had a hand. But lowering interest rates should make people feel better about economic conditions and could give Democrats and Biden a boost. While the Fed has projected that it will start cutting rates at some point this year, the timing is an open question. March? May? June? Later? The answer to that question could seriously influence the outcome in November.</p><p>"Interest rates are a big reason why people are frustrated, independent of inflation, independent of whatever other economic outcomes may be frustrating," Amarnath said.</p><p>I'm not saying anything new here — Trump says it, too. He's well aware lower interest rates would boost the economy, lift people's moods, and, ultimately, help the party in charge. It's why he publicly worried the Fed would lower interest rates to help Hillary Clinton's presidential bid ahead of the 2016 election and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-considering-firing-jerome-powell-fed-chair-rate-hike-2018-12">repeatedly</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-attacks-federal-reserve-powell-over-economy-gm-rate-hikes-2018-11">berated</a> Powell and the Fed over interest-rate increases while he was in the White House.</p><p>The Fed is an independent body designed to be outside politics, so it's not subject to short-term pressures as it tries to steward the economy. There have been moments in the past when presidents have tried to sway it — often with disastrous results. Richard Nixon pressured the Fed to keep interest rates low before his reelection, which helped cement the disastrous inflation of the 1970s. Ronald Reagan <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ronald-reagan-fed-chair-volcker-trump-2018-10#:~:text=According%20to%20Volcker%2C%20Reagan%20did,election%2C%22%20Baker%20told%20Volcker.">got the message</a> to the central bank on his wants during his presidency, getting his chief of staff to tell then-Fed Chair Paul Volcker not to raise rates ahead of his reelection campaign. Volcker wasn't planning to raise rates anyway. In recent decades, however, most presidents shied away from saying much, until Trump. Most observers take Powell at his word that the Fed is not going to take politics into account in interest-rate decisions, even in an election year. But that doesn't mean he exists in a bubble, either.</p><p>"I don't think Powell is thinking about whether Trump or Biden will tell him to cut or hike rates," said Elizabeth Pancotti, the director of special initiatives at Roosevelt Forward, a sister organization of the progressive think tank the Roosevelt Institute. "It might affect how he messages the rate hikes or cuts."</p><p>Even in non-election years, Fed officials are incredibly cautious with their words. The political optics could make them even more so.</p><p>"I take Powell at his word that they're not making policy with an eye to explicitly putting their finger on the scale for one party or one presidential candidate over the other, but the Fed certainly has to manage political risk," Sarah Binder, a political scientist at George Washington University, said. Full FOMC-meeting transcripts, which are kept secret for five years, show the Fed isn't immune to political winds. Transcripts from 2018, for example, show that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-12/fed-s-2018-transcripts-show-desire-to-shore-up-political-support">officials discussed</a> the need for political support for their decisions and were well aware of outside pressure.</p><p>"The Fed doesn't really want to rock the boat. It doesn't want to upset Congress. It needs Congress on its side. They don't want Congress reopening the Federal Reserve Act," Binder said. "The Fed can't avoid the political winds here."</p><p>Not everything about the economy is under the Fed's control, of course, meaning there's only so much Powell can be blamed for, politically or otherwise. If the avian flu strikes again and chickens start to get sick en masse, egg prices are going to go back up. The central bank can't do much about oil and gas prices, which depend on global market forces or geopolitical turmoil. What's more, most Americans don't think about the Fed very much at all as a factor in their economic lives, even if it is one.</p><p>Powell is walking a tightrope right now in more ways than one. The economic risks of the Fed's decisions are real — if it cuts rates too soon, inflation could start to pick up again, and if it waits too long, it could put too much of a damper on the economy and push the country into a recession. It's a bit of a Goldilocks situation, except a lot more is at stake in finding what's just right than a good night's sleep.</p><p>"They've got to do the best job they can. The ante for them internally is to do this just by the book as much as possible as an institution," Diane Swonk, the chief economist at KPMG US, said. "The Fed doesn't have a horse in this race, and it never does, but it will always be blamed."</p><p><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/emily-stewart"><em>Emily Stewart</em></a><em> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.</em></p>

The one man who could save Joe Biden

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Vice President <keyword id="20307089" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Kamala-Harris" source="keywords">Kamala Harris</keyword> looks set to secure the Democratic presidential nomination.</li><li>Her campaign has gained momentum with high-profile endorsements and donations from tech leaders.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-tech-issues-ai-big-tech-crypto-silicon-valley-2024-7">Vice President Kamala Harris</a> is shaking up the 2024 election.<br /><br />Harris looks set to secure the Democratic presidential nomination amid a burst of popularity following <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/joe-biden-dropping-out-presidential-race-2024-7">President Joe Biden's withdrawal from the race</a>. The <keyword id="15548" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-President" source="Orion">US President</keyword> endorsed his current vice president, and many prominent Democrats, <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-link--focus-visible" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/barack-obama-endorses-kamala-harris-for-president-after-a-delay-2024-7">including Barack Obama</a>, have followed his lead.<br /><br />Money has been pouring into Harris's campaign, and the vice president has already <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sHky_Xopyrw">begun campaigning against</a> former president <keyword id="19918985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="keywords">Donald Trump</keyword>.<br /><br />While several <keyword id="19915272" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Silicon-Valley" source="keywords">Silicon Valley</keyword> veterans, including former Meta exec Sheryl Sandberg, have voiced their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-business-leaders-billionaires-backing-kamala-harris-president-2024-7">support for Harris</a>, others have spent the last few months throwing considerable weight behind Trump and his running mate <keyword id="22168234" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JD-Vance" source="keywords">JD Vance</keyword>.<br /><br />Also read: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/politics/world/news/these-6-house-democrats-voted-for-gop-resolution-condemning-kamala-harriss-failure-to-secure-the-border/articleshow/112023285.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank"><strong>These 6 House Democrats voted for GOP resolution condemning Kamala Harris's 'failure to secure' the border</strong></a><br /><br />David Sacks, an old PayPal colleague of <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/peter-thiel-jd-vance-veep-trump-election-kingmaker-2024-7">Peter Thiel</a>, donated $1 million to a pro-Vance Super PAC, while Thiel gave $15 million to his campaign, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/news/2022/05/03/jd-vance-win-ohio-primary-00029881">Politico</a> reported.<br /><br />Tesla CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk">Elon Musk</a> has also been enthusiastic about Vance, reportedly participating in a secret lobbying campaign for the former VC. The billionaire <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-campaign-says-musk-trying-to-control-country-with-money-2024-7"><u>officially endorsed Trump for President after </u></a>an assassination attempt against him in July.<br /><br />With Vance by his side, Trump has been trying to woo Silicon Valley away from Biden.<br /><br />But with Harris at the helm, it's a whole new race.<br /><br />"Momentum has certainly shifted in the tech industry, and many —including myself — are now optimistic that Harris can take the reins and drive the Democratic party into the future," Aaron Levie, CEO of Box cloud company, told Business Insider.<br /><br /><h2>A California candidate</h2>In Harris, techies have a candidate from their home turf.<br /><br />Born in Oakland, Harris has served as a California senator and as the state's attorney general.<br /><br />She has roots and high-profile friends in the Bay Area. She reportedly attended the 2013 wedding of former Facebook president and investor <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sean-parker-life-career-napster-facebook-billionaire-pictures-2020-3"><u>Sean Parker,</u></a> and her brother-in-law,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tony-west-life-career-uber-maya-harris-kamala-harris-2020-11"><u> Tony West</u></a>, is Uber's chief legal officer.<br /><br />Many in the Valley view Harris as a much-needed breath of fresh air.<br /><br />"I have known Kamala for decades, and she's been a fighter, a leader, and an advocate for the tech ecosystem," Silicon Valley "super angel" investor Ron Conway <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/RonConway/status/1815466335612399778"><u>said </u></a>in an X post calling on the tech community rally around Harris.<br /><br />Chiente Hsu, cofounder and CEO of bitcoin platform ALEX, told BI that Harris is "generally viewed more favorably among tech leaders" than Biden.<br /><br />She cited Harris' closer ties to the tech community and favorable stance toward innovation for the renewed enthusiasm.<br /><br />Harris has also shown a willingness to take on Big Tech when needed. During her time as attorney general, she tackled issues such as the distribution of explicit content on social media platforms, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/02/01/kamala-harris-porn-california-attorney-general-facebook-twitter-silicon-valley-224534/"><u>with a particular focus on "revenge porn."</u></a><br /><br />During the Biden Administration, Harris played an active role in AI regulation. She's <a target="_blank" class="editor-rtfLink" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2023/11/01/remarks-by-vice-president-harris-on-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence-london-united-kingdom/"><u>previously stated</u></a> she rejects the "false choice that suggests we can either protect the public, or advance innovation."<br /><br />"Her work on tech-related legal issues and proactive stance on innovation further bolster her reputation," Hsu said. "Harris has been vocal about the need for ethical AI development and robust oversight of Big Tech, reflecting a nuanced approach to tech regulation."<br /><br /><h2>A lucrative opportunity</h2>Several business elites have already expressed their support for Harris. Some, like Netflix's cofounder Reed Hastings, have been putting their money where their mouth is with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reed-hastings-all-in-on-kamala-harris-7-million-donation-2024-7">hefty donations.</a><br /><br />If Harris does win over tech executives, it could mean significant financial contributions and strategic support.<br /><br />Levie said Harris represented a "unique opportunity" for the Democratic Party to position itself as pro-tech, pro-AI, and pro-science.<br /><br />"Biden stepping down and the party aligning around Harris has reenergized the community, and many who were previously neutral are now excited about the direction Harris can drive," he said.<br /><br />Harris's stance on some tech issues is still a bit uncertain. Notably, the vice president hasn't taken a strong stance on cryptocurrency, but some expect her to become more pro-crypto than Biden.<br /><br />The Biden administration has been increasing its scrutiny of the sector following the collapse of FTX in 2022.<br /><br />Meanwhile, with support from pro-crypto running mate JD Vance, Trump has announced he plans to be the first <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/trump-bitcoin-cryptocurrency-election-outlook-crypto-funding-regulation-biden-novogratz-2024-7#:~:text=Donald%20Trump%20was%20not%20always,Trump%20trade%2C%22%20Bernstein%20said."><u>"crypto president."</u></a><br /><br />Nigel Green, CEO of financial services company deVere Group, previously told BI that Harris's views "reflect a cautious approach" to the sector. However, he said he expected Harris to become more pro-crypto to compete effectively with Donald Trump.<br /><br />"This regulatory clarity could bring greater legitimacy to the industry, potentially attracting more institutional investors and mainstream adoption," he added.<br /><br />

Kamala Harris has a golden opportunity to pull Silicon Valley away from Trump and Vance

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kamala Harris' advisors said she struggled to dig herself out of a hole.</li><li>Joe Biden put Democrats in a difficult position entering the 2024 race.</li></ul><p>President Joe Biden may have dropped out of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-wins-presidential-election-race-2024-11">2024 race</a>, but voters never forgot about their strong disdain for the his record.</p><p>"In general, for a Democratic candidate running in this environment, I think that would be challenging," Doug Sosnik, a longtime advisor to Bill Clinton, told Business Insider. "Then, obviously, if you're the vice president of the administration, that makes it even harder."</p><p>There's ample data Americans remain angry about the country's direction. It was Harris who had to pay the bill for lingering frustrations over the COVID-19 pandemic and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-2024-election-win-5-stats-to-explain-result-2024-11">the high prices</a> that came when the virus began to recede.</p><p>APVoteCast, a survey of over 120,000 voters nationwide, found that more than half of voters wanted to see substantial change. A CNN exit poll found that voters gave Biden a -19 point approval rating. Among those who didn't approve of the president, Trump won 82% of them.</p><p>Harris had a much more manageable -5 point approval rating, but despite her campaign's efforts to portray Trump as unelectable, he was just a couple of points higher at -7. Throughout the 2024 race, Trump posted some of his highest approval numbers since he launched his first presidential run in 2015.</p><p>"We dug out of a deep hole but not enough," Harris senior advisor and Obama 2008 campaign manager David Plouffe wrote in a now-deleted post on X.</p> <p>In the early recriminations about the 2024 race, there's a sense that Harris struggled to distance herself from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-biden-maga-supporters-puerto-rico-election-2024-10">Biden</a> — a difficulty best summed up by a moment during her appearance on "The View" that was quickly clipped by Trump's team for its closing message.</p><p>"There is not a thing that comes to mind," Harris said when asked if there was anything she would have differently than Biden during his presidency.</p><p>Evan Roth Smith, the lead pollster at BluePrint, said there's no doubt that Biden's unpopularity impacted Harris.</p><p>"It is very clear that Kamala Harris's association with Joe Biden and the Biden-Harris administration hurt her," Roth Smith said. "It is less clear to me that even if she had erased all of that, she would've been able to win this election."</p><h2 id="71b6be27-681d-492f-a79d-fc91229d0dd6"><strong>Harris swam against a global tide.</strong></h2><p id="71b6be27-681d-492f-a79d-fc91229d0dd6">This was an unusual race. Trump will soon become only the second former president to reclaim the White House. In an era of endless campaigning, Harris had barely over 100 days to wrap up a major nomination and reintroduce herself to the American people. Trump experienced violence unseen in the United States in decades as a would-be assassin's bullet missed him by just inches.</p><p>And yet, the main storyline sounds strikingly similar. Throughout the Western world, incumbents have been unceremoniously booted from office by angry electorates. It happened to British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his Conservative Party. Even ruling parties that clung to power in places like South Korea and Germany suffered massive setbacks. Under this lens, Biden's unpopularity made sense because his counterparts in the G7 were in the same boat.</p><h2 id="c73380e3-41f1-4b5d-bdd1-1813c305db90">Democrats didn't have a competitive presidential primary.</h2><p>Biden didn't debate until he entered the general election. As leader of the Democratic Party, Biden used his perch to fundamentally reshape the nomination fight — pushing out the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, the former of which had embarrassed him multiple times over his long career.</p><p>Unlike his predecessors, Biden never squarely confronted the type of midterm shellacking that would have further pressured Democrats to address the future of the octogenarian in the Oval Office. In retrospect, the 2022 midterms — when fears of a "red wave" never fully materialized — gave Democrats some false hopes. Biden then seized the opportunity to abandon his commitment to serve as a bridge to the next generation.</p><p>Entering the campaign, Biden had much more in common with presidents who were voted out from office than those who were able to win reelection.</p><p>A pre-election Gallup Poll showed how dour Americans' moods were when asked the question, "Would you say you and your family are better off now than you were four years ago?" More than half of adults (52%) said they were worse off, even greater than in September 2020, when the pandemic raged. The last time it was that bad was in 1992, when incumbent President George H.W. Bush lost to Bill Clinton.</p><p>After his disastrous debate performance, Biden tried to position his decision to step aside amid a concerted pressure campaign as an act of selflessness. Instead, he will likely be dogged by questions about why he insisted on hanging on for as long as he did.</p><h2 id="51af1ba2-5509-4928-8c5b-0abb87d7c198"><strong>It wasn't just Biden's past that haunted Harris.</strong></h2><p>Harris' record, namely the progressive positions she took during the 2020 Democratic primary campaign, came back to bite her. She struggled to explain how she could change her views so drastically on fracking, immigration, and on Medicare for All as she <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-democratic-national-convention-speech-election-2024-8">sprinted toward the center.</a></p><p>"People went on record saying all sorts of things on the advice of activists, advocates, pundits, and sometimes pollsters, that catered to the left-wing of the party, the base of the party," Roth Smith said. "And guess what? Voters didn't forget. The Trump campaign didn't forget."</p><p>Republicans say it wasn't just Biden's record or Harris' past that turned the race. Voters across the country and demographics showed a dramatic openness to the GOP.</p><p>"It was a historic victory, and it was a complete and utter repudiation of both Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party's platform and positions," Ryan Ryan Williams, who worked on Mitt Romney's 2012 campaign, told Business Insider. "Voters simply are not buying what they're selling. They don't want it."</p>

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