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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian and Iranian energy giants reached a preliminary deal Monday for future <keyword id="11955852" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="gas" source="Orion">gas</keyword> and <keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">oil</keyword> projects. </li><li>The memorandum of understanding is worth $40 billion, <keyword id="12062557" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="iran" source="Orion">Iran</keyword>'s state media said. </li></ul><keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> and Iran reached a tentative deal to develop future oil and gas projects Tuesday, signing a memorandum of understanding worth $40 billion. Gazprom and the National Iranian Oil Company reached preliminary terms for the Russian state-run energy giant to aid in the development oil and gas fields as well as the construction of pipelines and liquefied natural gas projects."The National Iranian Oil Company does not ignore any investment opportunity," Mohsen Khojastehmehr, NIOC's chief executive, told Iran's state media. The agreement comes on the same day Russian President Vladimir Putin visits Tehran to meet with Iranian and Turkish heads of state.Iran owns the largest supply of natural gas reserves ahead of Russia. And both are subject to US sanctions that have limited their access to international technologies and capital. A deal between the two comes amid a strained energy market suffering from skyrocketing prices and unstable sourcing. Europe is preparing for a potential full-scale shutdown of Russian gas flows after the invasion of <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> upended global energy <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> and drew condemnation that resulted in sanctions from the West. As a result, Russia is turning to other countries to send energy supplies. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-china-gas-pipeline-mongolia-power-of-siberia-eu-azerbaijan-2022-7">A Russia-China gas pipeline will break ground within the next two years</a>, as the two allies deepen their economic and energy ties. The pipeline will run 2,600 kilometers and is expected to begin service in 2030. Meanwhile, the European Union signed a new gas deal with Azerbaijan on Monday to double imports of natural gas by 2027 to at least 20 billion cubic meters.

Russian and Iranian energy giants reach $40 billion deal to develop oil and gas projects as Putin visits Tehran

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <keyword id="6431122" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="euro" source="Orion">euro</keyword>'s slide below parity with the US dollar is tied to the uneasiness in energy, experts say. </li><li>"The recent deterioration in gas supply to <keyword id="11897120" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="europe" source="Orion">Europe</keyword> has played a significant role in driving a weaker euro."</li></ul>The euro is down nearly 12% from the start of 2022, and analysts are attributing most of that to <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>'s war on <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword> and its subsequent moves in the energy market.While the euro has rebounded a bit after falling below parity with the US dollar for the first time in 20 years, an escalation of the European energy crisis could send the currency to lower depths."I think a large percentage (75%+) of the euro's move is because of the energy crisis caused by the Ukrainian crisis and the rest due to a hawkish US Fed," said James West, senior managing director at Evercore ISI.And as Europe heads toward a winter energy crunch, "it definitely gets worse before it gets better," he added.Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-warns-west-sanctions-risk-price-catastrophe-energy-consumers-2022-07-08/">"catastrophic"</a> consequences if Western <keyword id="12754126" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="sanctions" source="Orion">sanctions</keyword> go further. And the energy industry has warned that Putin has shown willingness to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/energy-rationing-vladimir-putin-europe-gas-crisis-ukraine-shell-ceo-2022-7">"weaponize energy supplies"</a> as Russia looks to retaliate against Europe's sanctions.Moscow has already shut off gas flows to Germany as part of the Nord Stream 1 pipeline's annual maintenance after slashing deliveries by 60% prior to that. Europe is gearing up for the possibility that the gas won't return.In that situation, that "would lead to a near-certain recession in Germany as well as another big rise in energy prices," said George Saravelos, head of FX research at Deutsche Bank. And the euro may have more room to tumble, according to Saravelos, who warned in a July 6 note that the currency could pull back further to fall between $0.95 to $0.97 against the greenback. "The recent deterioration in gas supply to Europe has played a significant role in driving a weaker euro," Saravelos told Insider. He noted that a strong dollar has also contributed largely to the decline of the euro "on the back of global recession fears."Stephen Ellis, an analyst at Morningstar, said the growing effectiveness of Western sanctions against Moscow could keep Putin from pulling his energy strings. "Broadly, the euro's decline can be linked to a higher chance of a deep recession, which is influenced by <keyword id="11896879" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="oil" source="Orion">oil</keyword> prices and output," Ellis said in an email to Insider. But others on Wall Street are downgrading their forecasts on the euro. JPMorgan recently cut its euro-dollar target to $0.95 with a worst-case scenario of a test near $0.90, citing the likelihood of escalation in the European gas crisis.Citigroup also sees the euro hitting $0.95 if gas prices reach 250 euros per megawatt hour in the event Russian supplies don't come back.Olivier Konzeoue, director in the currency team at asset manager UBP, sees the euro falling to $0.97 or $0.95 as the energy crisis hits Europe's economy, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/global-forex-euro-parity-levels-idAFL1N2YU1LY#:~:text=%E2%80%9CIf%20the%20gas%20pipeline%20that's,of%20economics%20research%20at%20Barclays.">telling Reuters</a>, "Basically, we know it's all about Russia."

Russian gas holds the keys to the euro as the energy crisis weighs on Europe's economy and currency

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> might consider releasing prisoners into an infamous mercenary group to aid its offensive in <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword>. </li><li>The UK Ministry of Defense said that "if true" this move indicates Russia is struggling to replace troop losses.</li></ul>Russia might resort to "recruiting" incarcerated people to fight for an infamous Kremlin-tied mercenary group as a way to make up for troop shortages in Ukraine, according to British intelligence."Russian Armed Forces' personnel shortages may be forcing the Russian MOD [Ministry of Defense] to turn to non-traditional recruitment. This includes recruiting personnel from Russian prisons for the Wagner Private Military Company," the UK Ministry of Defense said in a statement, adding, "If true, this move likely indicates difficulties in replacing the significant numbers of Russian casualties."Western officials have said that <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-wagner-group-mercenaries-where-operate-2018-4#2-syria-2">the Wagner Group</a> is already <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/09/wagner-group-russia-uraine-mercenaries/">present in Ukraine.</a> The <keyword id="12052982" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="wagner-group" source="Orion">Wagner Group</keyword> is a shadowy private Russian military force that's been linked to the Kremlin and has operated in conflict zones across the world. The mercenary group <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/25/wagner-group-fighters-accused-murdering-civilians-ukraine-war-crimes-belarus">has been accused of war crimes</a>.The UK intelligence update also said that Russian troops are continuing to make "small incremental territorial gains in Donetsk oblast." Donestk, along with Luhansk, is one of two provinces that make up the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine."Russian forces are likely maintaining military pressure on Ukrainian forces whilst regrouping and reconstituting for further offensives in the near future," the UK Ministry of Defense said. After failing to take Kyiv in the early days of the war, which began in late February, Russia turned its attention to the Donbas. Russia has gradually made progress in the Donbas in recent weeks and recently declared victory in Luhansk. The roots of the Ukraine war can be traced back to 2014, when Russia invaded and annexed Crimea from Ukraine. That same year, Russia began supporting rebels in a war against Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. Even before Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the onset of the so-called "special operation" in Ukraine in February, Kremlin-backed rebels controlled roughly one-third of the Donbas. Though Russia has made gains in the Donbas, experts have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-could-soon-conquer-east-ukraine-but-not-kyiv-expert-2022-6">expressed skepticism</a> that the Russian military has the numbers and weaponry to launch another offensive to conquer the whole of Ukraine. The Ukrainian government estimates that as many as 35,000 Russian soldiers have been killed so far. An estimate from the UK government released in April placed the death toll closer to 15,000. It's difficult to verify these numbers with the fighting ongoing.

Russia might recruit prisoners to fight for the Kremlin-tied mercenary Wagner Group amid troop shortages in Ukraine: British intelligence

<ul class="summary-list"><li>German Chancellor <keyword id="12695848" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="olaf-scholz" source="Orion">Olaf Scholz</keyword> said Putin dismantled many people's views of the modern world.</li><li>He said Putin is like past imperialists who thought "you can just take territory of your neighbors."</li></ul>German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said the idea that the world has moved beyond countries invading their neighbors has been dismantled by Russian President Vladimir Putin's war in <keyword id="11985141" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="ukraine" source="Orion">Ukraine</keyword>.Scholz was speaking during an interview with <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/olaf-scholz-face-the-nation-transcript-07-03-2022/">CBS's "Face the Nation"</a> that aired Sunday when moderator Margaret Brennan asked if the war represented a 9/11-level wake-up call for Europe."I think too many in the world were hoping that we are living in a different world that is different to the experiences of the last century and the centuries before, where might and power, were deciding on the future of countries and not the rules and the agreements we have between states," he began."We have had an agreement that there should be no attempt to change territory, to change borders, to invade the neighbor. And this agreement is now canceled by Putin," Scholz said, adding that it was a "watershed moment of international politics."When Brennan pressed him about whether or not he thought Europe and Germany had been too complacent, he said they should have been prepared for this possibility."What is Putin thinking of? He is thinking like the imperialists in the 17th, 18th, 19th century," Scholz said. "He is thinking that all about the nation is power, and that if you are mighty enough, you can just take territory of your neighbors. And this is an activity and an idea we cannot accept and we will not accept."He said he thinks all Western leaders can do to deter Putin is convince him it's not working and that he will not succeed.<keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword>'s invasion of Ukraine has had a reverberating effect throughout Europe. For instance, Scholz said Germany changed its approach to international relations, including its strategy to never send weapons to a country in conflict. The country delivered heavy weapons to Ukraine last month after <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/germany-says-will-send-heavy-weapons-ukraine-scramble-counter-criticism-2022-6">criticism it was withholding aid</a>.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nato-chief-finland-sweden-show-putin-made-huge-mistake-in-ukraine-2022-6">Finland and Sweden</a> are also poised to join NATO after Putin's invasion led the two countries to pursue membership in the alliance.

German chancellor says many thought the world moved past countries trying to conquer their neighbors but that 'agreement is now canceled by Putin'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Foreign troops led by <keyword id="11894337" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="russia" source="Orion">Russia</keyword> helped <keyword id="6380984" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="kazakhstan" source="Orion">Kazakhstan</keyword> crush a series of major protests.</li><li>The troops will be gone within 10 days, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev said Tuesday.</li></ul>Kazakhstan says Russian forces will leave the country starting January 13, following the end of protests that saw 164 people killed and 8,000 more detained.Some 2,500 troops with the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a Russia-led alliance including Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, arrived in Kazakhstan on January 6 to help quell <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kazakhstan-164-killed-and-thousands-injured-in-bloody-week-of-protests-2022-1">violence that was sweeping its cities.</a>Kazakhstan called for aid on January 2 after the spread of protests that began in the fuel-producing western province of Mangistau. The largest demonstrations, and most violence, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kazakhstan-police-killed-dozens-protesters-stormed-government-buildings-2022-1">were in Almaty</a>, the country's largest city.After helping quash the protests, the CTSO troops are due to depart over a period of 10 days starting on January 13, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev <a href="https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1480824251611770881">told his parliament Tuesday.</a>"The main mission of the CSTO peacekeeping forces has been successfully completed," Tokayev <a href="https://www.ft.com/content/d550169b-d50d-4188-86d7-91227810a43d">said</a>.During the unrest, demonstrators protesting the government's decision to remove a price cap on liquefied petroleum gas stormed government offices, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cars-torched-in-kazakhstan-as-thousands-protest-against-the-government-2022-1">set fire to state property</a>, and clashed with police.The government <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kazakhstan-blocks-internet-amid-huge-protests-govt-resigns-2022-1"> cut access to the internet</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-kazakhstan-protests-force-armored-military-tanks-retreat-2022-1?r=US&amp;IR=T">declared a state of emergency.</a> As of Monday, at least 164 people had been killed and 8,000 more detained, <a href="https://apnews.com/article/kazakhstan-europe-national-security-terrorism-2c026ecb00584aba668f320d4482d0f1">according to Kazakh authorities.</a>On Monday, Tokayev <a href="https://t.co/soIcQ9hwFm">claimed that the uprising was an attempted coup</a> rather than a spontaneous expression of anger. He praised Russia, a close ally, for leaping to Kazakhstan's defense.The same day, Putin said Kazakhstan was targeted by terrorists and external forces, without giving any names or specifics, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/kazakhstan-detains-7939-people-over-unrest-2022-01-10/">Reuters said</a>.Such unsubstantiated claims are common among nations justifying the use of force in protests. Under CSTO rules, members can only deploy troops to other member states to respond to external — not internal — threats, <a href="https://www.rferl.org/a/kazakhstan-csto-troop-russia-analysis/31642847.html">per Radio Free Europe</a>.Russia is currently keeping juggling unrest on two fronts: Kazakhstan at its southern border and rising tensions with Ukraine and the US at its western border. Russia has for weeks <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reaffirms-support-to-ukrainian-president-if-russia-invades-2022-1">been building up a large troop presence at the Ukrainian border</a>, a move Putin says is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-refuse-rule-out-ukraine-invasion-says%20us%20nato%20aggressor-2021-12">in response to NATO expansion eastward</a> and the presence of US artillery in Ukraine. In an attempt to deescalate tensions, US and Russian diplomats met for emergency talks in Geneva, Switzerland, on Monday.During the eight-hour meeting, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-tells-russia-to-prove-it-isnt-planning-ukraine-invasion-2022-1">Russian officials said</a> Moscow had no intention of invading Ukraine. The US said that it would not deny Ukraine, o<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-continues-to-make-demands-the-us-will-never-agree-to-on-ukraine-2022-1">r any other eastern bloc country</a>, entry to NATO just because Russia felt threatened.President Joe Biden <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-reaffirms-support-to-ukrainian-president-if-russia-invades-2022-1">said earlier this month</a> that the US will defend Ukraine's sovereignty and would respond "decisively" if Russia invades.

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Russian and Iranian energy giants reach $40 billion deal to develop oil and gas projects as Putin visits Tehran

Brian Evans

Russian gas holds the keys to the euro as the energy crisis weighs on Europe's economy and currency

Brian Evans

Russia might recruit prisoners to fight for the Kremlin-tied mercenary Wagner Group amid troop shortages in Ukraine: British intelligence

John Haltiwanger

German chancellor says many thought the world moved past countries trying to conquer their neighbors but that 'agreement is now canceled by Putin'

Kelsey Vlamis

Kazakhstan president says Russian troops will start to leave in 48 hours, citing calm after 164 people killed and 8,000 detained

Bill Bostock

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