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Last week, the President of the United States, <keyword id="19919748" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="joe-biden" source="keywords">Joe Biden</keyword>, announced significant tariffs on a range of <keyword id="20139085" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-products" source="keywords">Chinese products</keyword> to protect American workers from unfair trade practices. The targetted measures include a 100% tariff on <keyword id="6354973" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="electric-vehicles" source="Orion">electric vehicles</keyword>, a 50% tariff on semiconductors and solar cells, and a 25% tariffs on batteries, steel and aluminium products, some critical minerals, and essential health equipment like medical gloves, syringes and needles. In his address from the Rose Garden of the White House, Biden said America can continue to buy any kind of car they want, "but we're never going to allow China to unfairly control the market for these cars. Period." He claimed that the Chinese government has been investing state funds in various Chinese companies for years, spanning industries across the above-mentioned sectors. How does this brewing geopolitical <keyword id="20736760" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trade-war" source="keywords">trade war</keyword> impact <keyword id="20742235" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-firms" source="keywords">Indian firms</keyword>? Experts say the impact could be in two ways, benefitting some sectors, while harming the few others. Let’s start with the bad news. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Threat to Indian firms" comment="subhead" text="Threat to Indian firms">Threat to Indian firms</cmsannotation> Beijing offers significant subsidies on most of these products, leading to surplus production that exceeds domestic and even regular export demand. Subsequently, Chinese companies are known to flood the global markets with surplus products at unreasonably low prices, forcing local manufacturers out of business in many countries, including <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>. A prime example of this in practice can be found in the steel sector, where weak domestic demand is pushing the world’s largest steel producer China to offload surplus production into Indian markets at cheaper prices. Indian steel manufacturers are already struggling to compete with a glut of cheaper Chinese steel, with shipments nearly doubling year-on-year in the financial year ending March 2024. “India is already under grave threat of import because all major steel consuming economies are shutting their doors on these steel producing countries. We are highly vulnerable to surging and predatory import,” said Alok Sahay, secretary general of the Indian Steel Association, to Reuters. Global trade experts say that a majority of Chinese products are sold at unreasonably low prices in global markets because the companies in these sectors do not have to worry about profits. They are heavily subsidised by the Chinese government. <keyword id="20279291" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Steel-Authority-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Steel Authority of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Steel Authority of India">Steel Authority of India</keyword>’s (SAIL) chairman Amarendu Prakash also said that they are keenly watching Chinese imports after the US tariff increases. Additionally, China has been accused of employing anti-competitive strategies like compelling foreign companies to transfer their technology in order to operate in China. These factors have led to the US effectively shutting its door on several Chinese products through heightened tariffs, and other developed markets like Canada are also likely to follow suit. White House also emphasised that it continues to consult with its partners and allies who are facing similar threats from China’s unfair trade practices and are keen on taking action. If more and more global markets restrict entry of Chinese products, the risk of the majority of such products being dumped in neighbouring India increases drastically. Trying to block Chinese excess production "is like squeezing a balloon. It shrinks in one place and pops out in another," William Reinsch, a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, tells Reuters. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="An opportunity also arises" comment="subhead" text="An opportunity also arises">An opportunity also arises</cmsannotation> While some products risk being dumped into the Indian market, in a few other cases, Indian firms could benefit from fresh openings in the lucrative US market. "Of the products affected, India has opportunities in face masks, PPE, syringes &amp;needles, medical gloves, aluminium, iron, and steel. Opportunity may come in China also with retaliation, provided we have market access in products targeted by China," Ajay Sahai, Director General of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations (FIEO), told ANI. However, China is not likely to retaliate against the US tariffs at the moment, say experts, though the country’s Ministry of Commerce said it would take 'resolute measures to safeguard its own rights and interests' "China's economy is fragile. With household spending and the property market on the wane, manufacturing for export markets is one of its few bright spots. Beijing will not want to cut off its nose to spite its face. More broadly, China is desperately trying to encourage new foreign investment. Rash retaliatory action could spoil its case," Moody's Analytics explained in a recent report. Out of China's USD 420 billion exports to the US, only USD 18 billion is impacted due to the latest hike in tariffs — representing slightly over 4% and therefore considered marginal. But Sahai says that this market will continue to grow with time and provides an opportunity to India and other competitors to chip in the supply gap. Ajay Srivastava, the founder of the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), also echoes Sahai’s opinions. He emphasised that the increased duties on Chinese face masks, syringes, needles, medical gloves, and natural graphite offer a substantial opportunity for India, as quoted by ANI. "By ramping up production and export of these in-demand products, India could enhance its trade footprint in the US market," he added. In terms of products like electric vehicles and semiconductors, India remains a net importer, and therefore, may not be in a position to capitalise right now. In the long term, however, as India begins semiconductor production at scale in 2025, there will be opportunities to export some of it to the US and other European countries, offering fresh impetus for domestic manufacturing. As the security risks associated with importing Chinese semiconductors prompts more and more trade barriers from the Western countries, demand for supply from India is likely to grow. Efforts are already underway for the establishment of four large semiconductor plants in India, with three located in Gujarat and one in Assam. Last fiscal year, Indian exports to the US dipped marginally by 1.32 per cent to $77.5 billion as against $78.54 billion in 2022-23. The new development now gives an unique opportunity to turn the tide over the next few years. Overall, some sectors like steel and aluminium do face a serious challenge due to the fresh US tariffs on Chinese products. However, the development will open new avenues for Western market entry and expansion for several other products. (With inputs from agencies)

US-China tariff war could benefit several sectors in India while harming a few others

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae shares surged post-Trump election win, up 74% and 70%, respectively.</li><li>Trump's second presidency could end government control of the agencies, reshaping the mortgage industry.</li></ul>While Tesla and bitcoin soared in the wake of Donald Trump's election victory, shares of two firms connected to a key corner of the US economy have also surged on the potential for a big shake-up. The preferred shares of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/fmcc-stock">Freddie Mac</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/fnma-stock">Fannie Mae</a>, the mortgage finance giants that entered government conservatorship during the 2008 financial crisis, have soared in the past week. Shares of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are up 74% and 70%, respectively, since Trump won the election. Behind the massive gains are hopes that a second Trump presidency could release both companies from their government conservatorship, potentially reshaping the US mortgage industry."The re-election of former President Donald Trump revives the effort to get Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of government conservatorship," Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Ben Elliott wrote in a recent note.In 2008, the US government bailed out both companies and took them over to prevent the housing market from crashing and ensure that mortgages were still available to prospective homebuyers.While the companies don't originate mortgages, they buy home loans from lenders and securitize them, offering liquidity to a market that deals in a relatively illiquid product.Since then, excess profits generated by both companies have been paid to the US Treasury rather than their investors, which is why the preferred shares of both Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae have traded below $5 for much of the past 15 years.However, a recent <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-allies-are-working-on-plans-to-privatize-fannie-and-freddie-a9c4e5ff">report from The Wall Street Journal</a> suggests that members of Trump's inner circle, such as Larry Kudlow and John McEntee, are discussing plans to re-privatize the two companies.Those against the plan worry that the privatization of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae would result in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/fannie-freddie-conservatorship-trump-project-2025-mortgages-686bd902ce630a64c90f9373bee9e2be">higher mortgage rates</a> and a resurgence in risky behavior that led to the 2008 crisis, while supporters say the companies are well-capitalized and in a much stronger financial position than they were during the 2008 Financial Crisis.Hedge fund boss and potential pick for Treasury Secretary under Trump, John Paulson, is among some of the big holders of Fannie and Freddie shares who stand to benefit from their privatization. While a second Trump presidency may try to move ahead with plans to privatize the mortgage finance giants, efforts to do so during his first administration fizzled. Bloomberg Intelligence analysts said privatizing the companies would be a long process that "at best" would not occur until 2026 or 2027.

An under-the-radar Trump trade has soared on hopes of a big shake-up in the US mortgage industry

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Odds of a "no landing" scenario for the economy are rising amid continued strong economic data.</li><li>This scenario is bullish for stocks, even if it means slower rate cuts.</li></ul>As Wall Street engaged in a forecasting tug-of-war over the path of the US economy, few predicted anything other than a soft landing or a recession this year — but in the past month, a streak of hot macro data has placed a third option on the table.The "no landing" scenario entails a continued run of hot economic data and growth that boosts markets but also precludes a steep rate-cutting cycle from the Federal Reserve.For investors, that could mean a playbook that continues to lean into equities, with an emphasis on high dividend-yielding stocks.Soft landing? Hard landing? More like no landingInstitutions such as Bank of America and UBS have recently noted rising odds of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10">"no landing" outcome</a>. In this scenario, US growth remains stronger than estimated, keeping inflation above target and interest rates elevated.Consider the amount of positive data points that have surprised investors recently.There was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">September's blowout jobs print</a>, which showed employers added a stunning 254,000 new positions and pulled the unemployment rate down to 4.1%.Meanwhile, recent GDP and gross domestic income revisions have also been "overwhelmingly positive," BofA said, and this week's robust retail data shows that consumer spending has stayed strong, as real core control retail sales climbed 0.4%, compared to 0.1% in August and above estimates of 0.3%.<div type="image" title="Chart showing core control retail sales" height="1382" width="2368" msid="114399411" hostid="261" sizebytes="85128"></div>"This has led to fewer questions about downside risks and more on upside risks," BofA summarized in a Monday note.Reacceleration could make investors uneasy, dashing hopes for swift rate cuts from the Fed. As <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-september-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-10">inflation ticked up to 2.4% in September</a>, odds of an upcoming half-point <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">interest rate cut</a> have tanked, and investors see 25 basis points as the most likely move in November.According to BofA, a no-landing scenario is bullish for stocks as long as inflation doesn't flare up again.The trading playbookHarris Financial Group's Jamie Cox told Business Insider that an inflation rebound is unlikely. In his view, inflation will continue to come down, allowing the Fed to lower rates gradually. Paired with strong GDP growth, investors should readjust expectations of how deep these rate cuts will be, the managing partner said.According to Cox, that means that short-term interest rates will drop to around 3% in the no landing scenario, even if long-term rates remain elevated.That's good news for equities, as it will prompt money market investors and T-bill traders to move back into the stock market, he said. As this happens, high-dividend value sectors with strong cash flows will receive a boost. These include staples, utilities, and telecom. A steepening yield curve should also benefit financials."They're not going back and buying Nvidia, that money is not going back into Apple and all that kind of stuff," Cox said, referring to go-to tech names during the rate cycle's peak. "You can see the flows of funds, you know, back into dividend-paying stocks. And that's why the market's broadening back out."Meanwhile, small caps can also expect to see upside, he said. The rate-sensitive sector has been under pressure in past years but was recently upgraded to neutral by Morgan Stanley. The bank said it would turn "outright bullish" on the sector if upward revisions to GDP continue, among other things.Whatever investors do, they shouldn't get bearish and sell.After all, a no landing scenario is the best outcome for the economy, Cox said, and given hot growth, the situation effectively tosses recession fears out the window.This would be just the fourth time in US history that the Fed has cut interest rates without a downturn, he added. In each case, markets were incredibly strong two to three years out, he said."[This scenario isn't] the base case for a lot of people who want bond yields and interest rates to drop a lot, and I think that people need to be careful about what they expect the Fed to do," the managing partner said. "The rates are not going to drop as much as what people think, and that's okay; it's actually good."

Here's the trading playbook as data piles up in support of a 'no landing' for the US economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The tariffs Donald Trump proposed while campaigning could help create US semiconductor jobs.</li><li>Tariffs could also help US chipmakers compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.</li></ul>If president-elect Donald Trump follows through on his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">campaign promise to impose tariffs</a>, the domestic semiconductor industry could see job gains.Industry experts told Business Insider that tariffs on foreign-made chips could help level the playing field for US chipmakers, which are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chip-troubles-problem-us-economy-domestic-production-chips-act-2024-11">facing fierce competition</a> from their counterparts abroad. The tariffs could also encourage US businesses to source more chips domestically and help persuade chipmaking giants, like the Taiwan-based <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-making-apple-iphone-chips-helps-us-semiconductor-bet-2024-10">TSMC</a>, to keep building factories in the US. These developments could aid job growth in the US semiconductor industry, though experts disagreed on how much.Trump's proposed tariff policies include a 60% tariff on goods coming from China and up to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">20% tariff</a> on all imports, including chips. US companies source many of the chips needed to power items like iPhones and washing machines from abroad: The US share of overall chip production fell from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-us-doesnt-make-chips-semiconductor-shortage-2021-4">37%</a> of the world's supply in 1990 to roughly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%20of%20these,Vice%20President%20Harris%20took%20office.">10%</a> today.In an <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0e9ynAH6hmZIIeOx0SaGQu">interview</a> with podcaster Joe Rogan in October, Trump criticized the Biden administration's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chips-act-funding-all-hands-meeting-2024-11">CHIPS Act</a> legislation, which included $52.7 billion in tax breaks and subsidies for companies in the semiconductor industry. He said that the federal government should have implemented tariffs instead to motivate global chipmakers to build more factories in the US, which would then create jobs."You didn't have to put up $0.10," Trump said. "You could have done it with tariffs. You tariff it so high that they will come and build their chip companies for nothing."To be sure, the impacts of a tariff policy on chips could be mixed. Jeff Koch, an analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, told BI that tariffs could lead to higher prices for goods containing chips, such as cars, electronics, and appliances. He added that US chipmakers could likely benefit from these tariffs because it could help them compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.<h2 id="dc733634-a51d-47cf-a7b9-405bdfac9e61">Tariffs on chips could boost construction and manufacturing jobs</h2>Patrick Moorhead, founder, CEO, and chief analyst at the research and advisory firm Moor Insights and Strategy, told BI that tariffs could increase the number of US chip manufacturing jobs. He added that he thinks the policy could incentivize chipmakers like TSMC and Samsung, which is based in South Korea, to boost manufacturing in the US."The cost of manufacturing in the US for Samsung and TSMC would be lower than a 30% to 40% tariff on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">wafers</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ai-chip-production-manufacturing-nvidia-labor-china-taiwan-korea-2024-4">packaging</a>," he said, referring to key components of the chipmaking process.Jeff Ferry, chief economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a nonprofit that advocates for increasing domestic manufacturing, estimated that tariffs could create roughly 100,000 jobs at US chip manufacturers and their suppliers.He said this estimate was partly based on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/2021-Jobs-Report_2-pager.pdf">report</a> published in 2021 by the Semiconductor Industry Association — a trade association and lobbying group — that said a $50 billion investment would help create an estimated 10 additional chip factories in the US. That could add about 42,000 direct jobs at the companies building these factories and 101,500 indirect jobs at chipmakers' suppliers, per the report.Ferry said he thought chip tariffs could lead to the creation of roughly 10 additional factories, which led him to come to the 100,000 jobs estimate. In August, the White House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/">said</a> that investments supported by CHIPS Act funding would help create 115,000 construction and manufacturing jobs."Tariffs on chips, particularly legacy chips like those used in autos, could successfully shift production back to the US," Ferry said.Samsung did not respond to a request for comment. Intel and TSMC did not respond to a question about what impact a Trump administration tariff policy would have on each company's job creation plans in the US.An Intel spokesperson pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/us-chips-act-intel-direct-funding.html#gs.i5ie0q">press release</a> from March, which said the company's $100 billion investment in the US over the next five years is expected to create more than 10,000 jobs at Intel and nearly 20,000 construction jobs. TSMC pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122">press release</a> from April, that said TSMC's investments in three Arizona chip factories are expected to create roughly 6,000 company jobs, more than 20,000 construction jobs, and tens of thousands of indirect supplier and consumer jobs.Stephen Ezell, the vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, said that the effectiveness of a tariff on chips could be limited, in part because many chips aren't imported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">directly</a> into the US: He said they often come embedded into finished products like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">smartphones</a> or computers.For example, he said that in most cases, chips that TSMC manufactures in Taiwan for Apple are sent to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/tsmc-apple-memory-chip-production-us-china-taiwan-relations/672593/">China</a> or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/apple-made-14-billion-worth-of-iphones-in-india-in-shift-from-china.html">India</a> to be incorporated into a product like an iPhone. Therefore, the chip wouldn't be subject to a US tariff but the iPhone would.When deciding whether to build a chip factory in the US, Ezell said several factors — including wage rates, the labor talent pool, and tax policy — would be bigger considerations for companies than the country's tariff policy. But if tariffs proved to be the deciding factor in a company's decision to invest in the US, then Ezell said the policy could arguably be credited with boosting employment in the semiconductor industry."If a company did decide not to launch a factory elsewhere and instead launch it in the United States, then yes, this dynamic could lead companies to hire more," he said.Do you work in the US semiconductor industry? Reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jzinkula@businessinsider.com">jzinkula@businessinsider.com</a>

Trump's trade restrictions could be good for American semiconductor jobs

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> appreciated 5 paise to 83.44 against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early trade on Monday, as the American currency and crude <keyword id="19900090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="oil-prices" source="keywords">oil prices</keyword> retreated from their elevated levels. <keyword id="19950258" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Forex" source="keywords">Forex</keyword> traders said foreign fund inflows also aided investors' sentiments and supported the rupee. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit opened at 83.45 and gained further to 83.44 against the greenback, registering a rise of 5 paise from its previous close. On Friday, the rupee settled at 83.49 against the US dollar. According to CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari the Reserve Bank of India (<keyword id="19899808" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="RBI" source="keywords">RBI</keyword>) seems determined to prevent the rupee from depreciating below 83.70. Even with pressure from oil companies due to elevated oil prices. "Overall, positive economic indicators such as a good growth rate, stable inflation, a reduced fiscal deficit, record-high RBI forex reserves, and a pipeline of inflows are all supportive factors that should ideally bolster the rupee," Pabari said, adding that given these factors, the rupee is expected to trade within a broad range of 83.20 to 83.70 levels. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading at 104.86, lower by 0.01 per cent. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, declined 0.03 per cent to USD 86.51 per barrel. On the domestic equity market front, the 30-share BSE Sensex fell 174.57 points, or 0.22 per cent, to 79,822.03 points. The broader NSE Nifty declined 13.05 points, or 0.05 per cent, to 24,310.80 points. Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were net buyers in the capital markets on Friday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 1,241.33 crore, according to exchange data. On the domestic macroeconomic front, India's forex reserves dropped USD 1.713 billion to USD 651.997 billion for the week ended June 28, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Friday. In the previous reporting week, the overall kitty had dropped USD 2.922 billion to USD 652.895 billion. The reserves had touched an all-time high of USD 655.817 billion on June 7 this year. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/reliance-jio-ipo-mukesh-ambani-led-telco-might-be-gearing-up-for-indias-biggest-ipo/articleshow/111519009.cms">Reliance Jio IPO – Mukesh Ambani-led telco might be gearing up for India’s biggest IPO</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/jio-vs-airtel-vs-vi-prepaid-plans-comparison-plan-benefits-and-price-comparison-after-tariff-hike/articleshow/111512587.cms">Jio vs Airtel vs Vi recharge plans comparison – plan benefits and price comparison after tariff hike</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/hp-envy-x360-14-review/articleshow/111407165.cms">HP Envy x360 14 review – feature-packed laptop with a sleek design</a>

Rupee rises 5 paise to 83.44 against US dollar in early trade

The <keyword id="19949639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Rupee" source="keywords">rupee</keyword> opened on a flat note against the <keyword id="19949640" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-dollar" source="keywords">US dollar</keyword> in early trade on Tuesday, weighed down by a muted trend in domestic equities and the strength of the <keyword id="20563045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="American-currency" source="keywords">American currency</keyword> in overseas markets. <keyword id="20024982" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Forex-traders" source="keywords">Forex traders</keyword> said the US dollar strengthened due to increased demand from oil importers and stronger-than-expected economic data from the US. Moreover, rising crude oil prices also weighed on the local unit. At the interbank foreign exchange market, the local unit moved in a narrow range. It opened at 83.49 against the American currency and touched 83.50 in initial trade. On Monday, the rupee settled for the day lower by 10 paise at 83.50 against the US dollar. The <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords">Reserve Bank of India</keyword>'s positive economic outlook, with solid growth and unchanged inflation projections, suggests that there is less room for any early cuts amid prospects of rising inflation. This is likely to benefit the rupee from a favourable interest rate differential, said CR Forex Advisors MD Amit Pabari. Further, Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) have resumed their buying. FIIs were net buyers in the capital markets on Monday, as they purchased shares worth Rs 2,572.38 crore, according to exchange data. Moreover, anticipated inflows such as Reliance Infrastructure raising USD 350 million, SpiceJet planning to raise USD 250 million, and Clix Capital aiming to raise USD 600 million are likely to benefit the rupee, Pabari said. Given these factors, the rupee is expected to swing within a range of 82.90 to 83.70, he added. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was at 105.12, lower by 0.02 per cent. Brent crude futures, the global oil benchmark, fell 0.20 per cent to USD 81.47 per barrel. On the domestic equity market, the 30-share BSE Sensex was trading 155.45 points, or 0.20 per cent lower at 76,334.63 points. The broader NSE Nifty was down 33.25 points, or 0.14 per cent, to 23,225.95 points. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/ios-18-announced-with-apple-intelligence-improved-privacy-controls-customisable-home-screen-and-more/articleshow/110883233.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/ios-18-announced-with-apple-intelligence-improved-privacy-controls-customisable-home-screen-and-more/articleshow/110883233.cms" target="_blank">iOS 18 announced with Apple Intelligence, improved privacy controls, customisable home screen and more</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-vision-pro-to-be-available-in-nine-new-countries-but-india-is-not-one-of-them/articleshow/110883439.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/news/apple-vision-pro-to-be-available-in-nine-new-countries-but-india-is-not-one-of-them/articleshow/110883439.cms" target="_blank">Apple Vision Pro to be available in nine new countries, but India is not one of them</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/ixigo-ipo-now-open-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/110867238.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/ixigo-ipo-now-open-price-band-to-risk-factors-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/110867238.cms" target="_blank">Ixigo IPO now open – Price band to risk factors, all you need to know</a>

Rupee opens flat against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks gave back gains to trade mixed on Thursday amid more tech weakness. </li><li>GDP grew 2.8% last quarter, handily surpassing expectations.</li></ul>US stocks ended mixed on Thursday, giving back their biggest gains in the day as traders struggled to bounce back from Wednesday's sharp sell-off. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended more than 80 points higher after being up over 500 points earlier in the day. Long-dated bond yields slumped, with the 10-year Treasury yield falling three basis points to 4.255%.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product">GDP grew 2.8%</a> in the second quarter, according to advanced estimates from the Commerce Department, well-above the 2.1% growth economists had expected.Meanwhile, the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred measure of inflation, continued to ease last quarter. PCE inflation rose 2.6%, down from the prior reading of 3.7%.Cooling inflation and robust economic growth should bolster the case for rate cuts. Markets have raised their <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">expectations for three rate cuts</a> by the end of the year, according to the CME FedWatch tool, though the central bank has nodded to just one cut. "The data today will reinforce the notion that the Fed has the benefit of time. There is no need to rush with private domestic demand growing at a solid pace over the second quarter," Neil Dutta, the head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research said in a note on Thursday. "July remains a set up meeting for September," he added of the Fed's upcoming policy meeting.June PCE is due out on Friday morning, and is expected to show inflation eased to 2.5% last month, edging closer to the Fed's 2% target. Mega-cap tech stocks continued to slide after Tesla and Alphabet delivered disappointing results for the second quarter. Meta and Microsoft, which are on deck to report next week, both traded lower, losing 1.7% and 2.45% respectively. Alphabet was down for a second day, dropping another 3% on Thursday. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Thursday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,399.22, down 0.51%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,935.07, up 0.2% (+80.20 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,181.72, down 0.93%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ford-stock-price-plummets-ev-losses-warranty-q2-earnings-2024-7">Ford stock plunged</a>, marking its worst day since 2008 after a big second-quarter earnings miss. </li><li>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-job-market-layoffs-unemployment-rate-hiring-economy-2024-7">job market is edging closer to the "danger zone,"</a> according to famed economist Claudia Sahm.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-august-small-caps-rate-cuts-tom-lee-2024-7">The market's smallest stocks could surge as much as 15%</a> in August, Fundstrat's Tom Lee said. </li><li>It may be <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/next-recession-outlook-forecast-interest-rate-cuts-sahm-rule-unemployment-2024-7">too late for the Fed to stop a recession</a>, a former central bank president says.</li><li>Here are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-signals-flash-outlook-healthy-bull-rally-more-upside-2024-7">four bullish signals pointing to more stock gains</a> ahead, according to Bank of America.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude ticked 1% higher to $78.42 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, dipped 0.12% to $81.49 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slumped 1.7% to $2,362 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped three basis points to 4.255%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slid 1.81% to $64,895.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed as tech losses deepen and investors await PCE

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Market analysts predicted choppy trading and sharp swings going into the US presidential election.</li><li>Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are locked in a tight race, fueling uncertainty among traders.</li></ul>Market analysts are braced for volatility ahead of Tuesday's presidential election as traders <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-trump-trade-stock-market-bonds-commodities-tariffs-fed-2024-7">shuffled their bets</a> on a Donald Trump or Kamala Harris victory.The Republican and Democratic candidates are neck and neck in many polls,<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11"> fueling uncertainty</a> in the finance world over who'll emerge triumphant, and clouding the outlook for everything from tax and trade policy to corporate regulation and geopolitics.One analyst underscored the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-djt-bitcoin-harris-election-odds-betting-kalshi-polymarket-2024-11"> critical importance</a> of the election in research notes on Monday, while another touted economic fundamentals as more important to markets and predicted long-term investors would likely win over time. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is expected to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">cut interest rates</a> by 25 basis points on Thursday, while China's central bank is set to unveil some form of economic stimulus measures later this week. Here's a roundup of analysts' comments:<h2 id="b051a4d3-ca66-47f5-83ad-6b65851acac1">Naeem Aslam, chief investment officer at Zaye Capital Markets</h2>"US and European stock futures are trading flat as traders continue to focus on one thing and one thing alone, and that is the US elections. Basically, there is nothing else that matters; it is not going to be earnings that would move things in the markets, and it won't be the US jobs noisy number that would make traders think about the US economy. The only thing that is going to keep them occupied is the US election and who will become the next president of the most powerful country in the world."<h2 id="f123d804-bdf0-46b3-b1b2-46b4a53ef227">Joshua Mahony, chief market analyst at Scope Markets</h2>"A shift in the polls seen over the weekend signal the potential for a Harris victory in Iowa; with a surge in the older female demographic signaling a shift that many believe could carry Harris to victory. Coming at a time when markets appeared to have taken a Trump victory as a given, the polls are a timely reminder that betting markets may not be the best indication of who will become the President of the United States."The election looks significantly more of a contest than many had been expecting, which could provide a more protracted and volatile period ahead as we see potential recounts and challenges to potentially drag out this process."<h2 id="4192d8db-abfb-4db3-8486-f24c3eb9af7b">Principal Asset Management</h2>"Despite short-term volatility, historical trends reveal that equities have consistently posted strong gains by the end of a presidential term, underscoring the benefits of maintaining a long-term investment perspective. The drivers of market performance — economic growth, corporate earnings, and innovation — ultimately outshine the impact of political changes."Investors should take caution. Those who allow their political opinions to cloud their investing decisions could miss out on the potential rewards that come with staying invested in the market over the long-term."<h2 id="5a32ad08-8e3d-45d5-a08a-4420d2d2de45">Hal Cook, senior investment analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown</h2>"With the election being an effective coin toss, betting on a specific outcome doesn't seem sensible. Instead, remember that diversification is your friend."<h2 id="989e296a-dd0f-43f5-90c6-c0bd1cc6ef19">Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB</h2>"The main US blue-chip index is up 20% year-to-date, which does not suggest that the market is seriously pricing in the risk of civic violence after this election, which could rock financial markets and cause a global wave of risk aversion."An interesting development leading up to this election is that financial markets expect Trump to win, and the Trump trade has performed well in recent weeks, as you can see in the chart below. The Trump trade is a stronger dollar, weaker bonds/ higher bond yields and stronger crypto. With one day left of this campaign, the dollar is falling, and the dollar index is at a two-week low. Thus, if Harris does win on Tuesday we could see a rapid unwinding of this trade, a sharp weakening of the dollar and intense volatility in the FX and bond market."We expect Monday and Tuesday to be quiet for markets, however, once we get the first drip feed of results on Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, expect fireworks."

Prepare for market volatility but don't panic trade, analysts say ahead of Election Day  

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Inflation has come down from pandemic highs, but one economist isn't expecting a return to 2%.</li><li>Rate cuts and other changes in the economy point to 3%+ long-term inflation, says Steven Blitz.</li></ul>For the last decade or so, the Federal Reserve's magic number for inflation has been 2%.The central bank has been aiming to keep the long-run inflation rate at this level to maintain stable prices and a healthy economy.And after the runaway prices of the pandemic era, it seems like the Fed is drawing closer to its 2% goal: the inflation rate was 2.4% for the 12-month period ending in September.However, don't count on a return to the 2% era, said Steven Blitz, chief economist at business intelligence firm GlobalData. Blitz believes the economy is on track for higher, not lower, long-term inflation."I think inflation is going to settle around 3%, 3.5%," Blitz told Business Insider in an interview. "There is now a higher base inflation rate than there was before COVID for a number of reasons."The Fed's rate-cutting campaign is certainly a contributing factor to higher future inflation, in Blitz's opinion. In the past, runaway inflation has only returned to 2% after the Fed engineered a hard landing that slowed consumer spending and wage growth, Blitz said. Financial historian <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-powell-mistake-1970s-runaway-stagflation-unemployment-interest-rates-2024-10">Mark Higgins</a> points out that when the Fed cut rates too quickly in the 1960s, inflation spiked and contributed to stagflation in the 1970s.But there are other factors contributing to an increased long-term inflation rate, many of which Blitz tracked even before the pandemic.Debt levels are creeping up, generating an inflationary effect by increasing demand and prices for goods. In terms of consumer and business debt, after the Great Financial Crisis, households and businesses focused on deleveraging their balance sheets, but this trend started reversing after the passage of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act in 2018, Blitz said. Reduced taxes incentivized spending and also increased the national debt. A higher national debt balance can erode confidence in the dollar, further increasing inflation.Changing demographics in the workplace are also driving increasing debt and higher long-term inflation, according to Blitz.The workforce is getting younger as Gen Z employees enter the market and baby boomers and Gen X employees retire, resulting in growing spending power from Gen Z.As millennials age and gain more income, they're entering their prime homebuying years."They're in that part of their life where they normally leverage their balance sheets to take in physical assets," Blitz said. And as more millennials start families and have children, their expenditures will only continue to increase. These demographic changes will stoke consumer demand and, subsequently, inflation.And lastly, inflation is creeping up thanks to changes in international trade, Blitz said. Import penetration, or the amount of foreign goods flowing into the US, is reaching a plateau. Importing cheap goods from overseas has a disinflationary effect by decreasing prices paid by consumers.Blitz believes import penetration in the US is near or has already reached peak levels, meaning that the deflationary impacts of international trade will be muted in the future. With trends such as nearshoring and reshoring driving companies to move their operations closer to domestic markets, import penetration could certainly decline.In Blitz's perspective, all of these factors add up to an inflation rate exceeding 2% going forward.<h2 id="42586d83-d9bb-4112-b404-1a3b9311f18b">Investing for higher inflation</h2>Investors could start seeing persistent inflation take hold within the next year, according to Blitz. The September jobs report is already one early sign of sticky inflation, especially wage inflation, in his opinion.There are a few ways that investors can prepare their portfolios.In a high-interest-rate environment, bonds are less attractive, Blitz said. Bonds suffer from inflation risk because inflation eats into interest rate payments, reducing their real yield. Higher inflation also pushes up yields as investors demand higher compensation, reducing the value of the assets.Instead, look towards the stock market, he said. While increased inflation might hurt the stock market overall, there are some pockets of equities that will benefit. Technology and value stocks typically perform well in the wake of higher inflation, according to Blitz.In a high-inflation environment, companies look to put their capital into more durable investments as the dollar depreciates. Blitz believes the chip industry in particular is an inflation-resilient choice because they supply assets critical to many supply chains.High inflation can be a boon to value stocks because it boosts businesses' margins."In a lower inflation environment, it's harder to grow revenue off of the nominal growth of the economy," Blitz said. That results in outperformance from growth stocks, which investors anticipate will increase profits at a substantially higher pace relative to the rest of the market.In a 3% to 3.5% inflation environment, there's more opportunity for overlooked value stocks to appreciate. High-quality value stocks with stable margins will actually receive a lift from rising prices, especially if they have good cost management, Blitz said.Those looking to increase their exposure to these areas of the stock market can do so through funds such as the iShares Semiconductor ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-semiconductor-etf-us4642875235?miRedirects=1">SOXX</a>) and the Vanguard Value Index Fund ETF (<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/vanguard-value-index-fund-etf-shares-us9229087443?miRedirects=1">VTV</a>).

Why inflation isn't returning to pre-pandemic levels — and 3 trades to capitalize on an overheating economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Thursday. </li><li>Nvidia added to gains a day after it rallied to become the world's second-most-valuable company. </li></ul>US stocks were mixed on Thursday as the market struggled for direction a day after Nvidia's record-setting gain and ahead of a highly anticipated nonfarm payroll report for May.The number of people in the US filing for unemployment benefits rose to about a four-week high last week, with jobless claims clocking in at 229,000. While that's higher than estimates, it is still historically low, pointing to continued strength in the labor market amid the lowest unemployment rate in decades.On Friday, investors will get a fuller picture of the labor market with the May nonfarm payroll report. Expectations are for employers to have added 175,000 jobs last month, about in line with April's reading.Rate cuts bets have edged up in the wake of data pointing to a cooler job market, and Friday's report will be key in laying the groundwork for potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html?redirect=/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html">Fed fund futures are pricing in</a> the first rate cut in September, though commentators have said in the last week that July may be back on the table if inflation cooperates in the next several consumer price index reports.Nvidia shares extended gains from Wednesday's session, when the chip maker rallied more than 5% to become the second most valuable company in the world, shooting past Apple and behind only Microsoft by market cap. Nvidia closed Wednesday with a market valuation of $3.01 trillion.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,355.23, up 0.1%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 38,921.89, up 0.3% (113 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,173.87, down 0.1%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on today:<ul><li>The European Central Bank cut interest rates for the first time since 2019 and upped its inflation forecast for this year and for 2025.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-soft-landing-outlook-recession-inflation-unemployment-jobs-2024-6?_gl=1*s4tyb2*_ga*Mzg2NTEyNjQzLjE3MDU0OTc0MjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxNzY3NjY1OC41NzAuMS4xNzE3Njc4MTMwLjYwLjAuMA..">It looks like the US economy is going to stick the soft landing.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-record-100000-mike-novogratz-cryptocurrency-regulation-trump-policy-2024-6">Crypto bull Mike Novogratz thinks warmer political attitudes toward bitcoin will send the token to $100,000 this year</a>.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-bubble-warning-signs-signals-ai-stocks-earnings-profits-2024-6">There are eight signs a bubble is forming in the market, and stocks have already flashed six of them, UBS says.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li>Oil futures rose<a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">. West Texas Intermediate</a> crude was up 0.6% to $74.56 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 0.5%, trading at $78.79 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> edged up to $2,376 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose two basis points to 4.312%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged up 0.1% to $71.058.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US indexes trade mixed as Nvidia extends rally and investors assess jobs data      

<ul class="summary-list"><li>South Korean companies invested more in the US in 2023 than any other country, per UN data.</li><li>The Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS Act offer financial incentives for American-manufactured EVs, batteries, and chips.</li></ul>South Korean companies are investing billions of dollars in the US to take advantage of two big laws meant to boost American manufacturing.According to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/dbc8208c-7fe2-41bf-a50d-f66abc65fde6">Financial Times</a> analysis of United Nations data, South Korean companies invested $21.5 billion in US projects in 2023, more than any other country. South Korea overtook Taiwan, which held the top spot in 2022.Samsung, LG, and Hyundai are among the South Korean companies committing billions of dollars to build facilities in the US to manufacture electric vehicles, batteries, and semiconductor chips. Much of the money is flowing to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/best-economy-us-south-texas-florida-houston-dallas-nashville-miami-2023-12">southern states</a>, boosting jobs in the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-inflation-reduction-act-clean-energy-2024-9">Battery Belt</a>.Yeo Han-koo, former trade minister of the Republic of Korea and a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, told Business Insider that US and South Korean interests in emerging technologies are perfectly aligned.Amid geopolitical uncertainty, the Biden administration is aiming to decouple US <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-economy-election-janet-yellen-manufacturing-2024-4">supply chains from China</a> to compete in the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-electric-vehicles-government-subsidies-win-ev-race-byd-tesla-2024-6">EV and chips race</a>. Meanwhile, South Korea — a longtime US ally — aims to build its global profile in high-tech and auto manufacturing.In particular, Yeo said, the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act and CHIPS and Science Act provide financial incentives for companies to invest in green technology in the US, bolstering South Korean commitments."In addition to these new geopolitical factors, these massive subsidies and tax incentives from the IRA and the CHIPS and Science Act really provide a good motivation for these Korean companies to invest in the US," Yeo said.<h2 id="b759499f-886b-4c14-8bae-91a8ccc1e284">South Korean companies are creating green tech jobs in the US</h2>According to the Financial Times analysis, over half of South Korea's outbound investments went to the US in 2023, up from 18% in 2019. During that same time, South Korean outbound investment in China decreased from 11% to 1%.Over a third of Korean project announcements in the US in 2023 were in the automotive or electronics sectors, including a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/georgia-electric-vehicle-battery-manufacturing-inflation-reduction-act-clean-energy-2024-9">Kia plant in Georgia</a> set to take advantage of the IRA's $7,500 tax credit for buyers of US-made EVs.Similarly, in February, Hyundai <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/hyundai-announces-new-production-start-date-at-metaplant-america-during-hyundai-day-in-georgia-302071754.html#:~:text=Hyundai%20Motor%20Group%20is%20investing,that%20will%20employ%203%2C500%20workers.">announced</a> over $7 billion in investment in production facilities in Georgia. The company estimates their investments will create nearly 40,000 jobs in the state.And South Korean investments span across multiple states, mainly in the South. Samsung <a target="_blank" href="https://www.americanprogress.org/article/new-samsung-semiconductor-plant-in-taylor-texas/#:~:text=Samsung%20invested%20approximately%20%2417%20billion,artificial%20intelligence%20(AI)%20purposes">invested</a> $17 billion in a semiconductor plant in Texas that is expected to create thousands of jobs. LG recently <a target="_blank" href="https://www.queencreekaz.gov/Home/Components/News/News/13041/13">invested</a> $5.5 billion in building a battery plant in Arizona.Additionally, SK Hynix, Inc. <a target="_blank" href="https://news.skhynix.com/sk-hynix-signs-investment-agreement-of-advanced-chip-packaging-with-indiana/">announced</a> a $3.87 billion plant in Indiana to produce chips for AI products. The plant is expected to create nearly 1,000 jobs by 2030.Yeo said South Korea has an interest in becoming a competing player in emerging technologies, and the US needs allies to bolster its manufacturing."Reviving US manufacturing will be one of the most important economic policy objectives, but I mean, the US cannot do it alone," Yeo said. "The US needs a kind of partner in rebuilding this manufacturing, especially in these emerging new industries and supply chains."In the past decade, South Korean companies have <a target="_blank" href="https://gov.texas.gov/uploads/files/business/SouthKorea-Profile.pdf">created</a> about 7,000 jobs in Texas and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://iedc.in.gov/events/news/details/2024/03/04/indiana-to-promote-booming-battery-ev-ecosystems-to-industry-leaders-in-south-korea">nearly 8,000 jobs</a> in Indiana.As the US reenergizes its manufacturing industries, Biden's inflation-fighting laws include provisions excluding businesses with supply chains connected with "foreign entities of concern," like China, Yeo said, to guarantee competition."Once you get the US subsidies, you are limited in terms of your flexibility to invest in China," Yeo said.Those provisions have incentivized South Korean companies to divert from China and focus more on the US.In May, South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy announced it committed $7 billion toward moving its supply chains away from China to further comply with US rules, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/south-korea-plans-7-billion-push-to-pivot-ev-battery-industry-away-from-china-1fa1f189">The Wall Street Journal</a>.Furthermore, as high-tech products like EV batteries become a primary focus for US manufacturing, it makes business sense for South Korean companies to invest in plants directly in the US, Yeo said."These batteries, for example, are very bulky products," Yeo said, referring to EV batteries, which he said are cumbersome to ship. "So I think in the case of the battery industry, I think it also makes commercial sense to locate those factories close to the final market or end users."South Korean companies like LG and Samsung are designed to be global, Yeo said, and the US is often a target destination for large corporations.According to World Bank <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.TOTL?locations=US">data</a>, the US population is above 330 million, while South Korea's population is just above 50 million."The US is the biggest market right now, and also still, the US market is considered to be very sophisticated," Yeo said. "When these global companies roll out new products, new technologies, they need to test it in the US market."To be sure, Yeo said it's important to recognize that trade is a complicated picture. China has been and continues to be one of South Korea's largest trading partners. While this moment provides business opportunities for South Korean companies in the US, the looming geopolitical tension with China creates uncertainty."With this geopolitical tension arising between the US and China, a lot of Korean businesses who had invested in China and had big kind of China operation are really kind of being squeezed between the US and China," he said.South Korean companies are committing to the US right now, but Yeo said political uncertainty over the presidential election encourages caution for international business."Korean companies have a first-mover advantage at the moment, but now also they are facing potential risk, depending on the outcome of the November election in the US," Yeo said.Nonetheless, Yeo said these investments would likely not make business sense without the subsidies and incentives provided by the Biden Administration's focus on manufacturing."Because of this combination of all these factors you see right now," he said, "Korean investments are really flooding into the US market." Are you trying to get a job building EVs or AI chips? Reach out at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:jtowfighi@businessinsider.com">jtowfighi@businessinsider.com</a>

South Korea is going big on American manufacturing. The Battery Belt could benefit the most.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Trump win would benefit energy and financial stocks the most, RBC analysts say.</li><li>They point to Trump's proposed corporate tax cuts and lighter regulation of oil and gas firms. </li></ul>A Donald Trump win in November could be the best outcome for stocks, and two sectors in particular would benefit the most, according to RBC Capital Markets.The bank pointed to stocks in the energy and financials sectors, which former President Donald Trump's policies have long supported.Those sectors would see the most upside from a Trump win, especially if Republicans take both the White House and Congress, the analysts say."Some of the traditional Trump trades continue to emerge in policy assessments. Among our US analysts, Energy and Financials had some of the most bullish tilts in a Republican sweep scenario, and some of the most bearish tilts in a Democratic sweep scenario," analysts said in the report.The report, released Wednesday, draws insights from a survey of RBC analysts.The analysts say a Democratic sweep would be bearish for energy and financials, while a split Congress and win from Vice President Kamala Harris would be more neutral.<h2 id="6f0e8ee9-5b23-4b7b-8652-9193b70c2854">Energy</h2>The analysts say Trump's policies favor domestic fossil fuel production, since they aim to reduce regulatory requirements, which would lower costs. That would likely drive further oil and gas production, they say.They add that less regulation would move pipeline costs lower, which would allow for more construction in transporting and storing infrastructure.Harris's energy policies, on the other hand, would shift more incentive to electric vehicles, posing downside risks to future oil demand, the analysts say."We think the conventional wisdom that Harris is more favorable to alternative Energy than Trump, and that Trump is more favorable to traditional Energy than Harris, is generally correct and that their biases here are one of the biggest differences from an investment perspective between the two on domestic policy," the analysts said.They note, however, that Harris's pledge to continue allowing fracking is a positive for the industry."Harris' insistence that she would not ban fracking makes her less of a risk for traditional Energy than some have believed," they wrote.They acknowledge, too, that Trump's impact on energy and industrial stocks that have benefited from the IRA is "complicated," and that domestic production has reached higher levels under Biden than they did under Trump.<h2 id="224d937d-67af-4f7a-be3c-f2596a6a0209">Financials</h2>For financials, the analysts say that Trump's corporate tax cuts are the biggest reason for their bullish outlook.In a speech last month, Trump said he would push to lower the corporate income tax rate to 15%. During his presidency, his 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act lowered the corporate tax rate to 21%, a decrease from 35%.Harris, meanwhile, plans to raise the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%.The analysts also see Trump, and Republicans in general, creating a more favorable regulatory environment with less oversight for financials. "Specifically, we believe the regulatory approval process for larger bank deals would be less onerous and the timelines could be accelerated, which would help stimulate more M&amp;A across our space," RBC's regional bank analysts said.Some officials, though, have sounded the alarm on Trump's anti-regulatory stance. Last week, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen criticized the former administration, saying it didn't do enough to protect the economy."Put simply, we were without crucial tools to identify and help respond to risks to financial stability," she said, noting that the Financial Stability Oversight Council lost funding and staffing during Trump's presidency.<h2 id="a2394f4c-ac96-4e75-a5d8-06fd810bcd4f">Election results to bring more stability</h2>Overall, the analysts say that the more important outcome is simply the end of the election, which has drummed up considerable uncertainty and volatility for markets ahead of the November 5 contest. "The survey results add to our growing belief that the thing that may matter most for US equities (for 2024) is getting past the event so companies and investors know what they are dealing with," the analysts said.

These 2 sectors of the stock market are poised to benefit most if Trump wins in November, RBC says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks have rallied postelection, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.5% since last Tuesday.</li><li>Bob Elliott sees potential for continued upside due to expected tax cuts and lower regulation.</li></ul>Investors have enjoyed an almost-everything rally in US stocks since the presidential election, with the S&amp;P 500 up 3.5% since then.While some strategists and money managers have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-trump-trade-dot-com-bubble-sp500-smead-2024-11">warned the surge</a> has only pushed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-election-investing-stock-market-strategy-sp500-valuations-morningstar-2024-11">high valuations</a> even higher, Bob Elliott, the founder of Unlimited Funds, thinks the upswing can keep going.In a November 7 interview with Business Insider, the former executive at Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund by assets under management, said that the likely outcome of a red sweep means that investors will begin to account for the benefits of tax cuts and lower regulation more than they might have under a divided government outcome."There's most likely more room to run to price in that expansionary fiscal policy ahead," Elliott said. "Valuations are certainly elevated, but the power of over-easy monetary and fiscal policy, relative to conditions, is likely stronger than any concern about valuation in the near-term for most investors."Not only have investor expectations been adjusted, but the uncertainty that has kept many investors in safer assets has now been removed and should leave more inflows, Elliott said."A lot of the clouds have cleared, and so it's very likely we see those folks who remained cautious through this week start to allocate capital, particularly through the end of the year," he said.In terms of fiscal policy, Elliott said that Republicans would likely extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which will keep corporate and individual taxes lower than they were likely to have defaulted to under a Democratic administration or split government.The amount of mergers and acquisitions should also increase thanks to lower regulations, he said.Tariffs and the large-scale deportation of migrants would be aspects of Trump's agenda that could be damaging to growth, Elliott added, though it's unclear how likely these initiatives are to be carried out, For example, tariffs could just be bargaining chips being put forth by Trump to negotiate new trade terms with other countries."We probably won't really know what that path will look like until the second half of 2025," he said.Until then, the outlook is bullish for "everything but bonds," Elliott said.But three areas within the broader stock market should be primed for more upside than others. A solid macroeconomic backdrop and falling rates have typically been factors that are good for cheaper stocks, he said, and they should get more of a boost relative to other areas of the market in the near future."When you get these types of conditions where you have reasonably strong economic conditions and a loosening or an easing of policy, that often will cause liquidity to take advantage of or flow to unloved corners of the market," he said.He continued: "So areas that have been underperforming — things like small-caps, energy stocks, financials — areas like that that just have not seen the sort of top-line demand that things like tech stocks have seen."Investors can gain exposure to these areas of the market through funds like the Vanguard Small-Cap ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/vanguard-small-index-fund-etf-shares-us9229087518?miRedirects=2">VB</a>), the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/the-energy-select-sector-spdr-fund-us81369y5069?miRedirects=2">XLE</a>), and the iShares US Financials ETF (<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/etfs/ishares-us-financials-etf-us4642877884?miRedirects=2">IYF</a>).

You Searched For "us trade benefits" and got 13 results

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