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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US lithium production is set to spike with new projects advancing in Nevada and California.</li><li>The expansion aims to reduce reliance on China for critical minerals and electric-vehicle batteries.</li></ul>The US is on the cusp of a lithium boom after years of laying the groundwork for an electric-vehicle supply chain that doesn't rely on China.Within the past month, the Biden administration has approved the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine in Nevada and loaned $2.6 billion to the company developing Thacker Pass, another lithium mine in the state. A project in California's Salton Sea started construction earlier this year. The three sites, expected to come online between 2026 and 2028, would massively increase the US's lithium supply. Since the 1960s, only one site, Silver Peak, in Nevada, has operated in the country.The expansion is aimed at curbing China's control over the metals used in EV batteries and other renewable-energy technologies that countries need to decarbonize their economies. While most of the world's lithium is produced in Australia and South America, some two-thirds of it is processed in China, which also dominates EV-battery manufacturing. The US imports about 25% of its lithium supply from Chile and Argentina, but an analysis of federal data by the Atlantic Council found that it relied on China for about 70% of its lithium-ion batteries in 2023."If we're electrifying the transportation industry, you don't want to rely on any one country," Bernard Rowe, a managing director of Ioneer, which is developing Rhyolite Ridge, told Business Insider. "There was a recognition that there had to be domestic production."<div type="image" title="A customs officer holds powdery white lithium carbonate during an inspection at Shanghai İnternational Port on June 6, 2022." height="683" width="1024" msid="114817441" hostid="261" sizebytes="27062"></div>The Biden administration is encouraging US mining and manufacturing through a mix of loans, grants, tax breaks, and research and development programs — a lot of which was authorized under the Inflation Reduction Act. The incentives cover activities including extracting critical minerals like lithium; manufacturing solar, wind, and battery parts; buying EVs; and recycling components.Rowe argued that while the US alone can't meet the skyrocketing demand for lithium due to rising sales of EVs and battery storage, some of the supply has to be sourced domestically for national security reasons.Karl Friedhoff, a fellow for Asia studies at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, agreed. He said there's no world in which the US and its partners can quickly compete with China on critical minerals; China already has so much capacity that it sets global prices."The question then is, can the US and other partner countries create a supply chain that meets their basic requirements," Friedhoff, who's part of a project exploring how the US, Japan, Australia, and India can cooperate to shift supply chains away from China. "Can we supply our own batteries? Can we build our own battery technologies? Do we have enough rare-earth elements for defense?"Based on estimates from Ioneer and other lithium project developers, the US could produce more than enough supply for the 1.4 million EVs sold in the country last year, which accounted for 7% of the auto market.The Biden administration wants EVs to account for at least 50% of car sales by 2030, and states like California and Texas are quickly deploying more battery storage to help balance stressed power grids. In September, the White House said US lithium production was on track to meet one-fifth of global demand outside of China this decade.<h2 id="c11b28df-2899-481e-8b55-b52898315793">Some environmentalists, Native tribes are alarmed</h2>The lithium projects haven't been without controversy, however. The Center for Biological Diversity <a target="_blank" href="https://biologicaldiversity.org/w/news/press-releases/blm-grants-final-approval-to-nevada-lithium-mine-threatening-biodiversity-cultural-landscapes-2024-10-24/?_gl=1*jmu4dt*_gcl_au*MTc3Mjg1OTA3Ni4xNzI5ODYzNzkz">has threatened to sue the Biden administration</a> over its permit for Rhyolite Ridge, arguing that the project could drive an endangered wildflower to extinction. The Western Shoshone Defense Project, which works to protect the Western Shoshone peoples' native homelands, says the mine threatens local water sources and culturally important sites.<div type="image" title="A Tiehm's buckwheat plant in Esmeralda County, Nevada, grows beside where the Rhyolite Ridge lithium-boron mine is planned." height="682" width="1024" msid="114817435" hostid="261" sizebytes="82450"></div>Thacker Pass faced similar opposition, but a federal judge last year dismissed a lawsuit from three Native tribes who argued that the mine's construction near a sacred site along Nevada's border with Oregon violated the law, <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/lithium-mine-tribes-climate-energy-lawsuit-nevada-7a65eee7d78d93a1e44e3f8e10445143">the AP reported</a>.Rowe said Ioneer redesigned the Rhyolite Ridge mine to limit its footprint in the critical habitat of the endangered wildflower, Tiehm's buckwheat. He said Ioneer would also monitor the pollinator population and adopt dust-control strategies. The Biden administration, in issuing the permit for the mine, said it would not jeopardize the flower's survival.Some companies are working on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/lithium-mining-electric-vehicles-climate-crisis-2023-5">direct lithium extraction techniques</a> that don't involve open-pit mining or large evaporation ponds and therefore could require less land and water and produce less toxic chemical waste. Controlled Thermal Resources is developing such a project in the Salton Sea, where lithium-rich brine is already being used to power geothermal plants.Tapping the US's newly discovered lithium resources likely hinges on the new extraction techniques, which currently cost more than traditional methods and still haven't been used commercially. The US Geological Survey this month estimated that there's enough lithium underneath southwestern Arkansas to meet the projected global demand for car batteries in 2030 nine times over.Actually extracting that lithium, including from brines left over from oil and gas production in the region, depends on whether the direct extraction techniques are viable, USGS researchers said.

The US is on the cusp of a lithium boom to loosen China's grip on EVs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's Xi Jinping negotiated a truce with India's leader, Narendra Modi.</li><li>They agreed to a patrolling arrangement on a disputed Himalayan border.</li></ul>At the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">BRICS summit</a> in Russia this week, China's leader Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shook hands for the first time in five years.The symbolic moment came after a deal was struck to resolve a long-standing feud between the Asian superpowers.In the lead-up to the summit, the countries announced they had reached a patrolling agreement that would reduce tensions along a disputed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-buying-new-light-tanks-for-himalayan-mountain-warfare-2023-6">Himalayan border.</a>The dispute had led to deadly hand-to-hand combat in recent years, taking the lives of 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese soldiers.After their meeting at the summit hosted by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Xi and Modi said they would continue discussions on resolving the issue.<h2 id="997cee52-7fd6-4283-bf77-94e40a12b5cc">A setback for the US</h2>Some analysts believe it is a development that's unlikely to be welcomed in Washington, DC.The US has sought to recruit India to help it contain China's growing regional aggression alongside other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a security pact that also includes Japan and Australia."So definitely, this is a setback for the United States of America's Indo-Pacific outlook, given the kind of rapprochement we are seeing in India-China relations, and particularly India, China and Russia coming together," Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, told Business Insider."Putin, Xi, and Modi meeting definitely signals that there is a kind of understanding under the carpet that has happened, which is quite subtle," he said.It's an assessment echoed by Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international affairs at Bucknell University."The thaw in India-China relations is a boon to both countries. This is particularly significant for China because India may now be less inclined to confront Beijing as part of Quad," Zhu told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/india-china-deal-raises-questions-about-us-indo-pacific-strategy-/7838623.html">Voice of America. </a>"In this sense, the effectiveness of Quad would be diluted with a less enthusiastic India."<h2 id="baf534cf-4366-41b8-b9ef-d526ffe91fda">Competition between Asia's rival powers intensifies</h2>Tensions have been building between China and India for years.As the two biggest economies in Asia, the countries have long jostled for regional power, with the dispute over the Himalayan border a flashpoint that led to clashes in 2020, 2021, and 2022.Amid the stand-off, Chinese vessels have reportedly surveilled the Indian Ocean in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/another-chinese-research-vessel-spotted-off-india-fuelling-unease-2024-03-11/">what experts told Reuters</a> was a likely intelligence-gathering operation, while India has strengthened its security ties with China's chief global rival, the US.In 2017 India played a key role in restarting the Quad, an alliance designed as a bulwark against growing Chinese influence and aggression in the Asia-Pacific region.But India has long sought to balance its relationship with rival superpowers the US and China, and does not at this point want to tie itself too closely to either side, say analysts.In addition to being a member of the Quad Alliance, it is a founding member of the BRICS, an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-asia-countries-flaunt-russia-putin-diplomacy-relationship-brics-2024-9">association of non-Western economies </a>that China has sought to transform into an alternative global economic power base to the US.<div type="image" title="India-China border" height="683" width="1024" msid="114594056" hostid="261" sizebytes="158650"></div>"This explains why it remains part of multilateral groupings with contradictory goals," said Praveen Donthi, a South Asia analyst with the Eurasia Group in Washington, DC, pointing to both its membership of the US-aligned Quad and China-dominated BRIC group.The truce comes with China on the back foot diplomatically, said Panda, pointing to its damaged relations with Europe and the US after its support f<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</a>"One could draw a conclusion at this point that probably the Chinese are more interested to rebuild the ties with India than the other way round," said Panda.He said there's also the possibility that Xi has reached an agreement with Modi behind the scenes for India to remain silent if China acts on its longstanding ambition to seize back control of Taiwan.Such a move would likely draw in the US and its other regional allies, who have pledged to help defend<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-drone-swarms-uav-us-playing-catch-up-production-2024-10"> Taiwan's independence.</a>"I think China's bigger ambition and target is the Taiwan issue, and therefore they would not really like to continue the kind of tensions they were engaged in with India for the last three to four years," he said."Therefore, they would like to rebuild, and they would like to ensure that India does not react to the Taiwan issue so sensitively."In any case, its a setback in US attempts to include India in a deeper security alliance, he said."For a long time, the US has tried to develop security and defense ties with India," said Panda.For the time being, a truce suits both Russian and Chinese interests, Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, said. But, he added, tensions remain.He said that though both parties have opened discussions about the border dispute, the underlying problem remains unresolved, and future flare-ups are likely.Donthi said the progress between the leaders could also be derailed if tensions between the US and China increase."This comes as a relief after four years of eyeball-to-eyeball troop deployment in the Himalayas. However, it's only the beginning," he said.

Xi undercut the West by negotiating a truce in China's long feud with India

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Western sanctions have forced Russia to rely on the Chinese yuan for reserves and trade.</li><li>China is concerned about sanctions, too. But unlike Russia, it lacks alternatives to the dollar.</li></ul>Sweeping Western sanctions against Russia have isolated its economy so much that it now relies on the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-russia-economy-sanctions-tighten-options-chinese-yuan-international-reserves-2024-4">Chinese yuan for its reserves.</a>Russia's isolation has also worried China — whose <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/profile/CHN">$18 trillion</a> economy far outsizes Russia's $2 trillion — about relying on the US dollar-based financial system, prompting calls in the country to reduce the exposure of its financial system against the greenback.However, unlike Russia, Beijing has far fewer alternatives, wrote Robert Greene, a non-resident scholar at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://carnegieendowment.org/research/2024/10/chinas-dollar-dilemma?lang=en">Carnegie Endowment Asia Program</a> and Cyber Policy Initiative."Russian authorities diversified the country's foreign exchange reserves in large part by buying renminbi assets, but a similar option is not possible for Chinese authorities," wrote Greene on Thursday.There are many reasons for China's de-dollarization limits.These include the entrenched role of the greenback in the global commodities trade and much larger foreign reserves than Russia, wrote Greene, a former senior advisor at the US Treasury. He is also a vice president at consultancy Patomak Global Partners.<h2 id="304a51cc-a554-4995-bec0-fb1297853568">China keeps circling back to the dollar</h2>To be sure, China has been trying to reduce its reliance on the dollar. Notably, it set up the yuan-based <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/dedollarization-countries-national-tech-payments-systems-russia-china-india-swift-2024-8">Cross-Border Interbank Payment System, CIPS,</a> to process transactions. However, many CIPS participants are highly connected to the dollar financial system and potentially subject to the reach of US sanctions.Meanwhile, about half of China's foreign reserves are held in the dollar. The country's dollar assets in 2023 were over 15 times the value of Russia's in 2019, wrote Greene. Russia's central bank reduced dollar-denominated foreign reserve assets significantly from 2020 in the leadup to its invasion of Ukraine, which means China's dollar reserves could be far higher than Russia's by this point."China could also, in theory, modestly diversify some reserves away from the dollar into government debt securities denominated in currencies of relatively small and open economies," wrote Greene.However, non-major currency assets — outside the realm of dollar, euro, and yen — "may not present meaningfully less geopolitical risk than the dollar."Other than foreign exchange reserves, China's largest state-owned financial institutes, including its four major state-owned commercial banks, are deeply interconnected to the US financial system."These institutions often rely on dollar funding to finance overseas activities, and in recent years at times maintained dollar-denominated liabilities worth significantly more than dollar-denominated assets," Greene wrote, citing a research paper published by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bostonfed.org/publications/risk-and-policy-analysis/2022/dollar-funding-stresses-in-china.aspx">Federal Reserve Bank of Boston</a> in 2022.China's ties to the dollar manifest in other ways.Most of China's Belt and Road Initiative loans have been denominated in the dollar. Many Chinese companies have tapped US dollar equity financing.China also actively manages its exchange rate relative to the dollar, added Greene.<h2 id="3b3ff39d-6801-4f64-9c4d-1320d7e35c99">The dollar is still king</h2>In short, China just can't copy Russia's sanctions-proofing playbook and is likely to continue orbiting around the dollar financial system in the near-term.It's not just China that's finding it to break up with king dollar.Talk about de-dollarization has come back in waves every few years <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-king-is-dead-long-live-the-king-exorbitant-privilege-review-2011-3?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">since at least the 1970s</a>.But the dollar still reigns, thanks to its position as a haven asset.As James Lord, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/de-dollarization-dollar-war-currency-usd-dominance-china-yuan-economy-2024-5">Morgan Stanley's</a> head of FX strategy for emerging markets, asked on a May <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/thoughts-on-the-market-zezas?linkId=424246303">podcast;</a> "Which currency would you want to own when global stock markets start to fall, and the global economy tends to head into recession? You want to be positioning in US dollars because that has historically been the exchange rate reaction to those kinds of events.""Bottom line, king dollar doesn't really have any challengers," Michael Zezas, the firm's head of US public policy research, added.

Russia can rely on China for the yuan, but China can't rely on anyone else

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi is in Russia to visit its president Vladimir Putin. </li><li>It's a visit that risks annoying India's ally the US. </li></ul>When India's prime minister arrived in Moscow on Tuesday, he greeted Russia's famously chilly president, Vladimir Putin, with an exuberant bear hug.It was a move likely <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/modi-putin-russia-india-relationship-not-worried-us-biden-mad-2024-7">to rile the US, </a>India's most important geopolitical ally, which has placed pressure on New Delhi to loosen its ties with Russia over Putin's invasion of Ukraine.But Prime Minister Narendra Modi's fear of China — a key Russian ally — means that he's willing to risk American anger to keep Putin close."New Delhi sees Moscow as an important buffer in their relationship due to Moscow's strong ties with Beijing," Sarang Shidore, an analyst at the Quincy Institute, told Business Insider."It is not in Russia's interest to have China and India at loggerheads, so it could, to a degree, act as a restraining agent."<h2 id="0ad4840d-1eb0-4f3e-a27c-3953a5a682f0">India ignores US pressure to cut Russia ties</h2>During the Cold War, the Soviet Union was among India's most important allies, with the Kremlin providing military support during India's clashes with Pakistan.They've remained close ever since, but the relationship is being tested anew in the fallout from the Ukraine war.The US has attempted to persuade India to take part <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-united-nations-general-assembly-biden-narendra-modi-india-82c9273cf3143cf16e9da23c3dd48170">in its campaign to isolate</a> Russia over the Ukraine invasion — but with little success."Russia is one of India's oldest strategic partners, and New Delhi wants to maintain this relationship regardless of Russia's diplomatic isolation following the war in Ukraine," Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, told BI.India has increased its purchase of Russian goods, including oil and fertilizer, at reduced prices after the US imposed sanctions on Russia.It continues to buy Russian armaments, with around <a target="_blank" href="https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/more-than-60-70-of-india-armed-forces-equipped-with-russian-origin-weapons-indian-envoy/articleshow/76903811.cms?from=mdr">70% of its weapons systems believed to be Russian</a>-made, and its military reliant on the Kremlin for spare parts and upgrades."Taking a hardline position against Russia could have both economic and security ramifications for India," said Richard Rossow, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.<h2 id="a68bd311-605c-44db-97ac-44c2056c27c0">China's threat to India increases</h2>The threat from Chinese leader Xi Jinping is another key factor in Modi's determination to ignore US pressure and retain good ties with Putin.China's regional might is growing, and it's menacing India, Asia's other major economic power.In 2020, a long-simmering border dispute resulted in deadly clashes between Indian and Chinese troops. China ha<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-produces-vast-undersea-maps-submarine-warfare-report-says-2024-1">s bolstered its presence in the Indian Ocean</a>, and the two are jostling for influence in countries in the region.China has built stronger ties with Russia in the wake of the Ukraine invasion, hoping a Russian victory<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> will damage US power and enhance its own global</a> might. And it's this friendship Modi's seeking to drive a wedge between."There is a real chance of future conflicts, and India would prefer to avoid Russia exporting advanced military hardware to China," said Rossow.Some Indian analysts believe that China poses a greater threat to Russia than NATO in the long term and that India can exploit those differences."The Russia-China 'alliance' may be short-term in nature, and that historical conflicts between the two, such as over their long border and under-developed natural resources in Russia's east, will resurface and trigger renewed tensions," said Morrow.But for the time being, Russia's new "no limits"<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-no-limits-partnership-yuan-bank-loans-sanctions-2024-2"> partnership has got Modi worried</a>, and he'll likely be hoping for a swift end to the Ukraine war. By maintaining good relations with Putin he's hoping he can contain the fallout."The war does not at all benefit its interests. The war also opens the door to legitimizing violations of territorial integrity, and endangers a principle that New Delhi has backed strongly," said Shidore.

Fear of China is behind India's exuberant display of friendship with Vladimir Putin 

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword> is well positioned to be a driver of greater wealth, according to a <keyword id="22444977" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-wealth" source="keywords">global wealth</keyword> report by <keyword id="19896306" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Boston-Consulting-Group" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Boston Consulting Group" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="Boston Consulting Group">Boston Consulting Group</keyword> (BCG). In 2023, India generated roughly $590 billion in new <keyword id="22367734" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-wealth" source="keywords">financial wealth</keyword>, marking its largest increase in the history. India will add about $730 billion annually to the overall growth of the region through 2028. The report says <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword> and India are positioned to drive global <keyword id="20231223" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wealth-creation" source="keywords">wealth creation</keyword>, "Notably, China and India are positioned to drive wealth creation, having collectively generated $588 billion in financial wealth in 2023. India is expected to add about $730 billion annually to the overall growth by 2028," said Yashraj Erande, India Leader Financial Services, BCG. Financial wealth in the Asia-Pacific region grew by only 5.1% in 2023, predominantly due to a slowdown in wealth creation in China. However, the report anticipates a significant increase through 2028, with the Asian region likely to contribute nearly 30% of new financial wealth by 2028. The report also observed that global net wealth registered a growth of 4.3% in 2023, following a decline of 4% in 2022. Much of this growth was due to a rebound in the financial market, as financial wealth, a subset of global net wealth, rose by almost 7% after a 4% decline in 2022. Looking ahead, the report estimates that $92 trillion of financial wealth will be created over the next five years. It also noted that Generative AI (GenAI) will play a crucial role in the digital transformation of <keyword id="21006652" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="wealth-managers" source="keywords">wealth managers</keyword>, with use cases along the entire value chain. "The financial wealth market has seen an uptick in the last year since its slump in 2022. The trajectory has been fairly well but not as good as it was between 2014-2021. For the wealth creation market to go back to its previous era the condition should continue to be favourable" added Erande. The report also highlighted that financial wealth in North America and Western Europe bounced back in 2023. Supported by strong equity markets, North America was among the fastest-growing regions, accounting for over 50% of all new financial wealth in 2023. The recovery was not as strong in Western Europe, where financial wealth rose by 4.4%. "Wealth creation resumed in 2023--but even so, wealth managers cannot afford to stand still. To capitalize on growing global wealth, industry players, among others, will need to set a clear digital transformation strategy and leverage GenAI to manage costs and improve client experience," said Michael Kahlich, a managing director and partner at BCG and a co-author of the report. The report stated that the most remarkable growth dynamics emerged in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The UAE is currently the world's seventh-largest booking centre and is expected to surpass the Channel Islands and the Isle of Man as the sixth-largest by 2028. Hong Kong's anticipated rise to become the top global financial hub was stalled by a temporary but significant slowdown in Chinese inflow. Singapore now appears to be in a position to challenge Hong Kong's rise over the long term. Switzerland remains the largest booking centre worldwide, growing in line with its historical average of 4.8% and gaining the most wealth in absolute dollar terms. However, Switzerland and other European cross-border booking centres, including the UK and Luxembourg, are growing at a slower pace than Singapore, the UAE, and the US. This shift is occurring mostly because of a stronger demand for geographic diversification, reflecting a continued surge in wealth generation in Middle Eastern and Asian markets.

India and China to drive new wealth creation globally, Asia to contribute 30% of new wealth, says BCG report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US military may be forced to confront a Chinese invasion of Taiwan without top allies.</li><li>Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada are likely to provide no military forces to counter China.</li></ul>If the US decides to defend Taiwan from Chinese invasion, it may have to do so alone.Several of America's biggest allies are unlikely to commit troops to save Taiwan, either because they lack the military capability or don't want to risk all-out war with an increasingly formidable China, according to a new <a target="_blank" href="https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA3108-1.html">report</a> by the RAND Corp..For Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada, aid "would be confined to diplomatic support for Taiwan and endorsement of likely US sanctions on China," concluded RAND, an American think tank, which surveyed experts in the four nations. If this proves right, it means that any military response to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">Chinese invasion</a> would be limited to American forces."Our respondents believe that the US will receive logistics and materiel support from other countries, but its forces will have to go it alone in responding to an invasion by China," Rafiq Dossani, a RAND senior economist who co-authored the study, told Business Insider. However, there was more support in Japan and Australia to commit their navies to assisting an American-led effort to break a Chinese blockade of Taiwan.That Canada, for example, might not be able or eager to rush to Taiwan's defense isn't a surprise. But for Japan, whose security would be gravely affected by a Chinese takeover of Taiwan, the issue is more complicated."Despite its military power, commitment to the region, and US backing, Japanese pacifism (both popular and constitutional) and the fear of a retaliatory attack by China are likely to limit Japan's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">military support for Taiwan</a>, perhaps only to logistics and supplies," RAND said. "Any support that they would offer to a US-led military response would likely be limited to logistics and materiel support."The goal of the RAND study, which was sponsored by Taiwan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, was to examine how America's medium-sized allies may deter or mediate a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-taiwan-drills-looked-like-rehearsal-for-invasion-us-admiral-2024-5">conflict between China and Taiwan</a>, a democratic island that China's communist leaders consider a breakaway province. The US is highly dependent on its regional allies like South Korea and Japan for basing, but the prospect it would have to fight without their ships and troops against what's likely to be a larger Chinese force may tarnish its deterrent power.Researchers classified Japan, Australia, the UK and Canada as "middle powers," which RAND defined as nations "that are not small but lack the sheer size and influence to significantly disrupt the global order." The study excluded nations that already faced a risk of direct conflict with China, the US and their respective allies. India and South Korea were also excluded "because those countries have declared that they will not play a mediating role in a cross-Strait conflict."RAND sent questionnaires to 49 diplomats, defense officials, policy analysts, business executives, journalists and legislators in the four nations. The various responses shared "remarkably common" views about a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-doesnt-have-military-power-invade-taiwan-experts-csis-us-2024-1">China-Taiwan war</a>.What is especially striking is the pessimistic self-image. The British experts, for example, felt that "the UK's distant location and weak military assets, in addition to its trade dependence on China, lead to limited UK interest in defending Taiwan militarily."Nor do the four US allies believe that Beijing fears them enough to refrain from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">attacking Taiwan</a>. "Our respondents thought that China views these four middle-power countries as too weak militarily to take on China on their own and as marginal players in a US-led coalition," the report found.On the other hand, America's top allies don't <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-trying-boost-its-economy-is-china-preparing-war-taiwan-2024-5">share</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">American fears</a> that a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-china-missile-problem-getting-worse-2024-5">massive Chinese military buildup</a> and Chinese leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-claim-us-trying-trick-china-invaded-taiwan-divide-allies-experts-2024-6">Xi Jinping's</a> avowed determination to "reunify" Taiwan with China are steps toward war, but rather may be nationalistic posturing. "According to our respondents, China's main goal is to legitimize its current domestic political system (i.e., the rule of the Chinese Communist Party)," the report said. "To accomplish this goal, China must be seen within as a great power, preeminent in Asia, and able to achieve high economic growth. An invasion of Taiwan would jeopardize such perceptions and thus be deemed an unacceptable risk relative to the status quo."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-taiwan-seals-would-fight-a-chinese-military-invasion-2021-12">Taiwan's military</a> is not inconsequential, with nearly 200,000 active-duty soldiers, anti-ship missiles and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-taiwan-could-use-sea-mines-to-stop-chinese-invasion-2024-3">mines</a>, and soon F-16 fighters and submarines. But this is a fraction of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-showed-how-easily-no-notice-it-can-surround-taiwan-2024-6">China's military</a> might, and Taiwan would probably need outside assistance to repel an invasion or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">break a blockade</a>. While the US would provide the bulk of such a relief effort, allied contributions would be vital, as would unfettered use of bases in Japan and Australia.To American hardliners already resentful that some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-didnt-scare-nato-defense-spending-putin-did-experts-2024-2">NATO nations </a>aren't spending enough to defend Europe, the reluctance of its allies may smack of cowardice, and stick the US with the burden of Pacific security. But this may also reflect military and geographic reality. Canada's small military could muster only a token force for Taiwan's defense. Britain's shrinking armed forces, which already have European commitments, would struggle just to dispatch a small carrier task force 6,000 miles to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-ax-attack-philippines-south-china-sea-grab-territory-experts-2024-6">South China Sea</a>.Though <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aukus-plans-for-new-submarine-base-amid-increased-undersea-competition-2023-5">Australia</a> is a Pacific nation, and has diesel-electric submarines and F-35 stealth fighters, it still lacks the ability to project and sustain military operations 5,000 miles away in Taiwan.But the biggest question mark is Japan: Okinawa is about 500 miles from Taiwan, Japan has territorial disputes with China over various islands in the East China Sea, and the Japanese military is rated among the 10 most powerful in the world. Furthermore, Japan's territory and the US military bases it hosts will be essential to any <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-plans-turn-taiwan-strait-into-drone-hellscape-against-china-2024-6">US effort</a> to counter China.Yet if Japan, Australia, Britain and Canada are reluctant to confront China, there are actions they can take to help Taiwan. RAND recommends that they create a joint plan for trade sanctions to deter China from attacking Taiwan. In addition, the four middle powers could play a role in mediators to prevent a Taiwan war from happening."Indeed, middle powers might be the only ones that can play a mediating role in such a conflict if tensions between the great powers were to escalate," the study noted. "However, as of this report's writing, no middle power has enough influence over both great powers to play such a role, even in coalition with other middle powers."Which means these middle-ranked nations need to build up their capabilities, military and otherwise. "To build credibility with both great powers, the four middle powers need to rebuild and bolster their strategic autonomy, material power, and commitment to the Asia-Pacific region."The study also implicitly raises questions about how much the US can count on its NATO allies for support outside Europe. While NATO nations did send small contingents during the Afghan war, confronting China is different."I think that NATO should take seriously the possibility of European middle powers preferring not to be involved in a conflict in which their adversary does not directly threaten their national security," Dossani said."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

In a Taiwan war, the US could find itself fighting China without its top allies

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump claims he can split the alliance between Russia and China.</li><li>The authoritarian states formed a "no limits" partnership after Russia's Ukraine invasion.</li></ul>At an event just days before his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">election triumph</a>, Donald Trump gave a clue as to how he plans to tackle two of the US' most powerful adversaries, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">Russia and China.</a>Speaking to right-wing media personality <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46FFS37MCx0">Tucker Carlson in Glendale, Arizona, </a>Trump accused the Biden administration of allowing the authoritarian powers to draw closer together."The one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting," Trump said. "I'm going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too. I have to un-unite them."Trump has long boasted of his deal-making prowess and, during his term of office, claimed to have struck a rapport with strongmen leaders President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China.But analysts say that prising Russia and China's bromance could prove to be an insurmountable challenge.<h2 id="56ef374b-ed2f-43ea-9df5-ddc65e9c013c">An anti-US alliance</h2>Xi and Putin are determined to topple US global power and they see Trump's election as a chance to further that agenda."While there are differences between Moscow and Beijing, they both share a world view of America in terminal decline, now further accelerated by the upheaval expected from a second Trump term," Stefan Wolff, a professor on international security at the University of Birmingham in the UK, told BI. It's a relationship of increasing concern to leaders in the Pentagon, as both nations<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9"> possess formidable nuclear arsenals </a>and sophisticated military technology.China has given Russia vital economic and diplomatic support to fuel its invasion of Ukraine, a US ally. <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">Trade between China and Russia</a> surged to a record high of $240 billion in 2023,Meanwhile, Russia and China's militaries have taken part in joint military exercises as China menaces Taiwan with invasion. <h2 id="e9cf0f79-3ec7-4131-88ce-94d98aefec59">Tensions remain</h2>Despite the declarations of unity, there are serious underlying tensions in the alliance Trump could seek to exploit.The president-elect pointed to these in his remarks to Carlson, claiming that Russia and China are "natural enemies" because China covets Russian land in the Far East for its growing population.<div type="image" title="Chinese and Russian jet fighters" height="640" width="1024" msid="115059004" hostid="261" sizebytes="14522"></div>"There is a lot of resentment of China in Russia in both the public and policy circles," said Wolff.China has made audacious inroads in the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> Central Asian republics that have long been seen</a> as part of Moscow's sphere of influence. And Russia is wary that China could seek to revive old border disputes to expand its territory, said Wolff.Russia, he continued, is "ultimately resentful of the fact that Moscow is now a junior partner to Beijing. These are potentially all things that Trump could use to drive a wedge between Russia and China."<h2 id="0f840bf6-189a-447f-89b2-5ba2081939b0">Exploiting chaos </h2>But achieving the goal will be incredibly difficult, say observers. To entice Putin away from his alliance with Xi, Trump would likely have to present him <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-no-hurry-end-ukraine-war-no-matter-wins-election-2024-11">with a US-brokered Ukraine peace</a> deal that meets most of the demands the Russian president has set out, said Wolff. These include the annexation of swaths of Ukrainian territory and guarantees that sanctions would be lifted — terms Ukraine has flatly rejected, and that would enrage the US' European allies. But even if Putin were tempted by such a deal, China's current economic leverage over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-trade-moscow-beijing-imports-bank-transactions-payments-2024-10">Russia as its biggest trading partner </a>provides it with an effective veto to any prospective deal with Trump. "Russia is going to be dependent on China no matter what in coming years as it seeks to rebuild its armed force and economy after Ukraine, and it's a weakness that Beijing will certainly exploit even if it costs it more to do so," Paul Cormarie, a political analyst a the RAND Corporation told BI."Unless it's [the US] replacing China as Russia's main partner (which would be frankly absurd) there's nothing much that could realistically split the two at the moment," he said.Jonathan Ward, an analyst at the Hudson Institute, told BI that Trump could instead seek to exert pressure on China, imposing the same punishing sanctions on the Chinese economy as it applied to Russia to tear the allies apart.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump shakes hands with Vladimir Putin." height="1160" width="1880" msid="115059005" hostid="261" sizebytes="73122"></div>He said this would "set a long-term framework for the breaking of the Russia-China axis and eventual strategic victory over this group of adversary states."However, some analysts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/sunk-costs-difficulty-using-sanctions-deter-china-taiwan-crisis">have </a>questioned the power of US sanctions to change China's decision-making and said they'd be tough to enforce given the size of China's economy.Another possibility is that Trump could seek to form smaller deals to create divisions between Russia and China, for instance, on security or sanctions. But they'd be unlikely to last."These deals would likely not impress serious thinkers in strategy and policy, but will be sellable as foreign policy wins," Robert Dover, a professor of International Security at Hull University in the UK, told BI.<h2 id="d89e07fd-2106-489f-9400-2915f0f79e26">The Trump effect</h2>Another factor likely to draw Russia and China closer together is Trump himself. Putin and Xi likely see the chance to exploit divisions caused by Trump's willingness to insult allies and foment domestic turmoil. Trump has long questioned the US commitment to the NATO alliance, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/possible-trump-effect-uk-national-security-and-what-do-about-it">Russia will likely be keen to probe </a>weaknesses caused by the possible withdrawal of its most powerful member.In East Asia, Trump has accused allies of freeloading off the US, a source of tension Beijing will likely seek to exploit."China can take a 'divide-and-conquer' strategy to dilute the effectiveness of Trump's foreign policy," Zhiqun Zhu, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-expects-bumpy-relations-with-the-us-under-trump-/7854808.html">told VOA this week. </a>For many observers, the economic and strategic ties that have formed between Russia and China in recent years are already so strong that breaking them apart is likely impossible.As Cormarie put it: "The Russia-China axis against the US is here to stay."

Trump said he will divide Russia from China. It's a tough bromance to break.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China was "very dramatic" after the US deployed a new missile system in the Western Pacific, a Philippines official said.</li><li>The US put the new Mid-Range Capability missile system in the Philippines during an exercise in April.</li></ul>China apparently had a "very dramatic" reaction to the US deploying a new missile system in the Western Pacific, according to the Philippines' top diplomat.The weapon in question is the Mid-Range Capability, or Typhon, missile system, a new US military asset which was deployed during a joint US-Philippines training back in April.Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo said Friday that his Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, expressed concern over the missile system during their talks on the sidelines of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting in Laos last month, per the Associated Press.Manalo said that while he and Yi discussed the situation, "they made it very dramatic," but he reassured Yi shouldn't be worried.<div type="image" title="A Tomahawk land attack missile in flight" height="3571" width="2551" msid="112574755" hostid="261" sizebytes="1150300"></div>Manalo said that China's foremost concern was that the system could be destabilizing to security and relations in the region, which he disagreed with. He also noted that the deployment to the Philippines is only temporary.The MRC system was first brought to the Philippines in April during joint US-Philippine exercises for a "landmark deployment" marking "a significant milestone for the new capability while enhancing interoperability, readiness, and defense capabilities in coordination with the Armed Forces of the Philippines," US Army Pacific said in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usarpac.army.mil/Our-Story/Our-News/Article-Display/Article/3740807/us-armys-mid-range-capability-makes-its-first-deployment-in-the-philippines-for/">a statement at the time</a>.The MRC is a ground-based, versatile missile system capable of firing both the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-aircraft-spotted-sm6-missile-newly-tested-in-combat-2024-7">Standard Missile 6 (SM-6)</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-submarines-getting-ship-killer-missile-able-to-counter-china-2023-12">Tomahawk Land Attack Missile</a>. It wasn't fired during the trainings and is still deployed there now, although it may be relocated as soon as next month.This particular capability, which was once barred by the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty between the US and Russia that is no longer in effect, has the potential to bolster America's force posture in the Pacific.<div type="image" title="Navy USS Savannah SM-6 containerized missile" height="1080" width="1920" msid="112574753" hostid="261" sizebytes="44432"></div>China's concerns align with its long-standing opposition to US deployment of military assets in the region and efforts to strengthen and secure its position in the region.China has also accused US allies like the Philippines of serving American interests to the detriment of their own. "The Philippines are inviting wolves into the house and willingly acting as their pawns," a Chinese defense ministry spokesperson said on social media, per Reuters reporting.The US and its allies, on the other hand, have accused China of increasingly hostile actions in the area.In the South China Sea, especially, China has recently engaged in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/philippines-soldiers-bare-hands-fight-armed-china-coast-guard-swords-2024-6">more aggressive actions in its territorial disputes</a>, as well as a variety of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-air-force-harassed-us-ally-aircraft-south-china-sea-2024-8">dangerous flight maneuvers and intercepts</a>, with the US, the Philippines, and other allies.

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