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Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

The United States government isn’t holding back when it comes to Big Tech, and <keyword id="19902762" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Google" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Google" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Google">Google</keyword> is squarely in its sights. After years of concern over the tech giant’s grip on the digital world, the US Justice Department (DOJ) has made a bold demand: sell your Chrome browser. The move comes amid two high-stakes antitrust trials that accuse Google of monopolistic practices. So, what’s at the heart of the government’s case, and why is Chrome a key piece of the puzzle? Let’s break it down. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:14.0pt;margin-bottom:4.0pt;">Search, Chrome, and monopoly madness</h3>In one corner, we have the DOJ versus Google in a trial in Washington, D.C., where a judge has already ruled that Google’s search business operates as an illegal monopoly. The DOJ argues that Google’s dominance in search, bolstered by its Chrome browser, gives the company an unfair advantage, effectively locking in users and advertisers. To remedy this, the DOJ has proposed that Google sell off Chrome entirely. This drastic move, they argue, could level the playing field and restore competition to a market where Google currently reigns supreme. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:14.0pt;margin-bottom:4.0pt;">The ad tech tug-of-war</h3>Meanwhile, in Virginia, a second trial focuses on Google’s grip on the ad tech market — the engine behind the ads you see while browsing. The government alleges that Google’s trio of advertising software products effectively monopolises the ad tech ecosystem. Publishers like News Corp and Gannett claim they’re stuck using Google’s ad tools to survive. DOJ lawyer Aaron Teitelbaum summed it up bluntly: “Google is once, twice, three times a monopolist.” The DOJ accuses Google of using its financial clout to buy out rivals and control the auction systems that determine which ads appear online. This, they say, allows Google to charge advertisers more while paying publishers less. The government wants Google to divest parts of its ad tech business to dismantle this stranglehold. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:14.0pt;margin-bottom:4.0pt;">Google fights back</h3>Unsurprisingly, Google has a different story. The tech giant calls the government’s arguments an attempt to pick “winners and losers” in an already competitive market. “The law simply does not support what the plaintiffs are arguing in this case,” said Google’s lawyer Karen Dunn. Google also argues that the ad tech market isn’t as straightforward as the DOJ claims. The company points out that ads appear across multiple platforms — search engines, social media, and apps — and Google doesn’t dominate all of them. In fact, it says rivals like Meta, Amazon, and TikTok are gaining ground. Dunn warned that forcing Google to sell parts of its business or work with competitors would essentially amount to government interference. “This is central planning,” she said, urging the court to reject the DOJ’s proposals. <h3 style="line-height:1.38;margin-top:14.0pt;margin-bottom:4.0pt;">What’s at stake?</h3>If the court rules against Google, the implications could be seismic. The DOJ’s proposals — selling Chrome or divesting parts of Google’s ad business — would fundamentally reshape how the company operates. But don’t expect a resolution anytime soon. Presiding Judge Leonie Brinkema is expected to issue her opinion swiftly, but any decision will almost certainly be appealed, dragging the case potentially to the US Supreme Court. Even then, the question of enforcement remains murky. While the Biden administration is eager to rein in Big Tech, future administrations could change course. Whether Google will ultimately be forced to sell Chrome or parts of its ad tech business is up to the courts — and potentially years of appeals. For now, the trials highlight a growing unease with the power of tech giants like Google. For Google, the stakes couldn’t be higher. For the rest of us, these decisions will shape the future of the internet as we know it. Stay tuned — this battle is far from over.

Why does the US want Google to sell its Chrome browser?

Ever since Donald Trump won the 2024 US presidential elections, bitcoin has been surging, going up over 40% in the last two weeks. Recently, the cryptocurrency soared past $97,000, having risen 8.32% in just the last 7 days, and is currently trading at $96,906.09. The overall crypto market is also buoyant, with the crypto volume jumping 10.06% over the past 24 hours to touch $198.83 billion. The markets are enthused about Bitcoin's prospects going ahead, given that Trump has hinted towards establishing a dedicated role in the White House for deliberating crypto policies. Trump has been vocally pro-crypto and had promised, during his presidential campaign, to scale back <keyword id="24085738" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="crypto-regulations" source="keywords">crypto regulations</keyword> and fire SEC chair Gary Gensler, who had initiated a crackdown on digital assets in the US. The crypto lobby in the US has been advocating for crypto-friendly SECs and access to banks. In a bid to do so, crypto companies have pumped in over $119 million to support pro-crypto candidates. Says Edul Patel, co-founder and CEO of Mudrex, "Market sentiment grew stronger from Bloomberg's report of Trump’s plan to establish a dedicated White House role for crypto policy. The anticipation of faster regulatory clarity coupled with BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF options projecting a $176k price target by 2026 has driven BTC’s price to the $95K milestone and beyond." The ongoing rally is not restricted to just bitcoin but also extended to Solana and XRP, which gained 10.85% and 59.02%, respectively, over the last 7 days. But does this mean that good times are coming for <keyword id="19991358" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-markets" source="keywords">Indian markets</keyword> as well? Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives &amp; Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that bitcoin is a proxy for risk-taking in the markets. Bitcoin moving up means the risk appetite of investors is rising. Conversely, if it falls, then investors prefer safety." Both Nifty and Sensex have lost over 5% each over the last month. FIIs (<keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-institutional-investors" source="keywords">foreign institutional investors</keyword>) have also been scrambling out of Indian markets, having withdrawn Rs 1,14,445.89 crores during October 2024 and offloading Rs 34,348.30 crore so far in November. During trade today, Nifty and Sensex remained in red, with Nifty down by 0.74% and Sensex down by 0.6%. DIIs (domestic institutional investors) have been trying to keep the market afloat in both October and November, pumping in Rs 31,636.77 crore in Indian markets in November so far. Last month, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in the Indian markets. According to an NSE report, by the end of the previous quarter, FPIs holding in NSE-listed companies stood at 36.3%, despite the seventh consecutive quarterly decline. Previously, FIIs holding in listed companies had hit a record high of 39.9% in December 2021. In contrast, DIIs are increasingly making headway into the Indian markets. Active Domestic Mutual Funds (DMFs) have been increasing their investments in the NSE-listed companies. Their ownership in these companies has risen from 12.4% in December 2021 to 15.7% as of September 30, 2024. Banks and insurance companies have also expanded their market share. Their ownership in NSE-listed companies has grown from 8.8% three years ago to 11% as of pr quarter.

The Bitcoin rally does not seem to be stopping anytime soon! Does this spell good news for Indian markets?

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The dollar has gained since Trump's election and his policies could boost the greenback further. </li><li>A stronger dollar could suppress global trade and complicate inflation abroad, a think tank researcher said.</li></ul>Donald Trump's proposed policies are likely to give the US dollar a boost during his second term, but a stronger US currency has the potential to unleash chaos in global markets, according to one think tank researcher. Michael Klein, a senior research fellow at Chatham House, an international affairs think tank, wrote this week that the dollar will likely rise under Trump, despite Trump's own suggestion that he would like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-dollar-trump-presidential-election-weaker-usd-policy-intervention-trillions-2024-7">to see a weaker dollar</a> to slim the US trade deficit.That's unlikely to happen, Klein said, largely because the greenback's other currency rivals remain challenged and because Trump's policies are bullish for the dollar. "President-elect Donald Trump has a dollar problem. In recent months he has shown a clear preference for a weaker exchange rate to support the competitiveness of US exports and help reduce the US trade deficit. And yet, as the market has sensed since the US election, the much more likely outcome is that his policies end up strengthening the greenback. The risk is that the US dollar— which is expensive already — becomes more obviously overvalued, and this could increase the risk of global financial stability," Klein wrote.Klein said a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/strong-us-dollar-exchange-rate-companies-investors-inflation-interest-rates2022-7">stronger dollar</a> could be bad news for other economies around the world. Given how widely the greenback is used across financial markets, global trade could be suppressed if the dollar gains in value.Countries that find their currency devalued against the dollar, meanwhile, could have a harder time taming inflation."If and when the dollar becomes unsustainably expensive, a further problem will present itself: how to deal with an overvalued currency without risking a lot of financial dislocation," Klein said. "Without much scope for a negotiated decline in the dollar, more chaotic alternatives seem likely."Markets have already picked up on the likelihood of a stronger US currency under Trump's presidency. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">US Dollar Index</a>, which weighs the greenback against a basket of currencies, has climbed around 3% over the last month and briefly surpassed 107 on Thursday, its highest level in a year.Several of Trump's policies are supportive of a stronger US currency. Klein pointed to Trump's plans for steep tariffs, which include a 10% blanket tariff on most US imports and a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.The US imposing tariffs on another country also tends to devalue the other country's currency, Klein added, due to traders selling the currency on foreign exchange markets. Such was the case in 2018, when Trump's trade restrictions on China led the yuan to depreciate 10% against the dollar that year, Fed data shows."More widespread tariffs on a whole range of US trading partners should therefore strengthen the dollar more broadly," Klein added.Economists have also said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariffs-higher-inflation-fed-interest-rates-taxes-mortgage-rates-2024-11">Trump's tariff plan</a> could stoke higher <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">inflation</a> and higher interest rates, which would prop up the greenback. Trump's other policies, like his plan to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tax-plan-tarriffs-benefits-top-earners-study-2024-10">cut taxes</a>, could also add to price pressures, Klein said."Since boosting the US economy will create inflationary pressure, the market will expect interest rates to end up higher than they might otherwise be. The resulting combination of looser fiscal and tighter monetary policy tends to lead to a stronger currency," Klein said.Trump has pushed back on the idea that his policies could stoke higher prices, and maintained that he will push inflation lower during his presidency. He brought tariffs on some imports from China during his first term without a significant inflation increase, but economists say his tariff plan this time around is more wide-reaching, with a higher likelihood prices rise as a result.

Why a strengthening US dollar could spark instability in global markets in Trump's 2nd term

The rupee rose 2 paise to 84.40 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday amid a recovery in domestic equity markets and a weaker American currency against major Asian rivals. Forex traders said, however, sustained outflow of foreign funds and an upward movement in crude oil prices put pressure on the local unit and capped its sharp gain. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 84.39 and slipped further to 84.40 against the greenback, trading 2 paise higher from its previous close. On Monday, the rupee recovered from its lowest level of 84.46 to settle 4 paise higher at 84.42 against the US dollar. Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading lower by 0.09 per cent at 106.10. Brent crude, the global oil benchmark, rose by 0.19 per cent to USD 73.44 per barrel in futures trade. On the domestic equity market front, Sensex was trading 271.42 points, or 0.35 per cent higher, at 77,610.43 points. The Nifty advanced 105.55 points, or 0.45 per cent, to 23,559.35 points. <keyword id="19932515" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Foreign-Institutional-Investors" source="keywords">Foreign Institutional Investors</keyword> (FIIs) were net sellers in the capital markets on Monday, as they offloaded shares worth Rs 1,403.40 crore, according to exchange data. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/tata-to-buy-a-majority-stake-in-pegatrons-iphone-plant-in-india/articleshow/115414852.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/tata-to-buy-a-majority-stake-in-pegatrons-iphone-plant-in-india/articleshow/115414852.cms" target="_blank">Tata to buy a majority stake in Pegatron's iPhone plant in India</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/ntpc-green-energy-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/115403791.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/webstories/ntpc-green-energy-ipo-gmp-risk-factors-and-all-you-need-to-know/slidelist/115403791.cms" target="_blank">NTPC Green Energy IPO – GMP, risk factors and all you need to know</a><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/news/jiostar-announces-plans-starting-at-15-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/articleshow/115326701.cms" target="_blank"></a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/entertainment/news/jiostar-announces-plans-starting-at-15-heres-everything-you-need-to-know/articleshow/115326701.cms" target="_blank">JioStar announces plans starting at ₹15 – here’s everything you need to know</a>

Rupee rises 2 paise to 84.40 against US dollar in early trade

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The September jobs report exceeds expectations, adding 254,000 jobs and boosting investor confidence.</li><li>But Jon Wolfenbarger says trends still point to a recession ahead.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/september-jobs-report-unemployment-rate-nonfarm-payroll-growth-federal-reserve-2024-10">September jobs report</a> gave investors renewed hope that the labor market continues to withstand the interest-rate hikes instituted by the Federal Reserve over the last couple of years.The 254,000 jobs added, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, well topped economists' expectations of 147,000.But Jon Wolfenbarger, the founder of investing newsletter <a target="_blank" href="http://BullAndBearProfits.com">BullAndBearProfits.com</a>, still sees a negative trend prevailing in the job market — and said in a recent note that the September report even showed cause for concern despite the strong headline number.That cause for concern lies in the number of government jobs added — 30,000 in September and around 500,000 over the last year. The sector has added the second-highest amount of new positions behind the private education and health services sector. This continues a trend of a growing ratio of government jobs to private jobs.Wolfenbarger, a former investment banker at JPMorgan and Merrill Lynch, pointed out that this ratio tends to increase in recessionary environments and said it's "not a sign of a healthy jobs market."<div type="image" title="all employees/government employees" height="482" width="1145" msid="114169736" hostid="261" sizebytes="20222"></div>Wolfenbarger is also concerned about other recent job data. He said the share of consumers in a survey from The Conference Board who say a job is hard to find is near 20% now, which could be bad news for an unemployment rate that has already risen significantly in recent months.<div type="image" title="labor market differential" height="479" width="714" msid="114169746" hostid="261" sizebytes="28814"></div>Job openings, new hires, and quits data also show a broadly slowing labor market. Quits fall when employees lack confidence in finding a new job, and new hires and job openings data backs that reality up.<div type="image" title="jolts" height="410" width="971" msid="114169740" hostid="261" sizebytes="14430"></div><div type="image" title="quits and hires" height="410" width="970" msid="114169748" hostid="261" sizebytes="22002"></div>Finally, the number of full-time employees has dipped into negative territory year-over-year, which has tended to happen during recessions.<div type="image" title="employed full time" height="387" width="972" msid="114169734" hostid="261" sizebytes="14806"></div>All of this is unfolding as the S&amp;P 500 continues to soar, closing at an all-time high on Friday afternoon. Valuations are also elevated across the board. In a September note, Wolfenbarger shared the below chart from Bank of America showing 19 of 20 valuation measures they monitor as being overvalued.<div type="image" title="stock valuations" height="344" width="706" msid="114169738" hostid="261" sizebytes="31634"></div>Given valuation levels, Wolfenbarger said that a recession would threaten to throw the market into a downward spiral."The valuation metric in this list that most accurately forecasts long-term (10-12 year) returns is the S&amp;P 500 Market Cap to GDP ratio," he wrote in the September 16 note. "It is currently 147% above its historical average since 1964. That means the S&amp;P 500 would have to fall 60% just to return to the historical average. If it fell below the average, the decline would be even worse."Wolfenbarger confirmed in an email on Friday that this still accurately reflects his views.<h2 id="53f4fe3f-7dc0-4077-b072-3b727fb1af75">Wolfenbarger's views in context</h2>Recent labor market weakening has put some economists and strategists on higher alert. But generally, a soft-landing consensus prevails on Wall Street, particularly after September's payrolls report.Markets now expect the Fed to take a more cautious approach to cutting rates so as not to flare up inflation again, whereas growing recession worries had investors cheering on a 50-basis-point cut in the weeks leading up to the Fed's September meeting.But it's still unclear how accurate the September jobs data is. David Rosenberg, founder of Rosenberg Research, said in a note this week that 75% of initial headline jobs additions have been revised down in the last year. Future revisions and further lackluster jobs data could resume investor fears that a downturn is a serious potential threat.As for Wolfenbarger's stock-market views, the S&amp;P 500 has not seen such an aggressive decline since the Great Recession — one of the worst downturns in history. And many economists say that a potential recession would be shallow, putting Wolfenbarger's views on the margin versus Wall Street consensus.But in a market where investors have been eager to snap up gains from AI stocks like Nvidia, a sudden reversal in sentiment driven by poor economic data could prove painful for investors, even if not to the degree Wolfenbarger expects.

A 32-year market vet shares 5 labor market indicators showing the US economy is barreling toward a recession — putting an overvalued stock market at risk for major declines

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed as investors looked ahead to the central bank's meeting minutes.</li><li>The release will offer more insight into what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy and inflation.</li></ul>US stocks were mixed early Wednesday as traders looked ahead to the minutes of the Federal Reserve's last policy meeting, which should give further guidance on the path of interest rates for the rest of the year. All three benchmark indexes traded slightly in the red, while bond yields were up slightly. Investors will be parsing through the Fed's latest meeting minutes later on Wednesday, which will give more insight into what central bankers are thinking about the economy and the trajectory of rate cuts this year and beyond. Monetary policy is in focus after an unexpectedly hot job report in September, fueling doubt over whether the Fed will issue another jumbo rate cut this year."The minutes of the last Federal Reserve meeting are due, and should be fascinating," Paul Donovan, the chief economist of UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a note. "The tone of the Fed minutes should not change expectations of further rate cuts—the Fed is still scrambling to catch up with inflation slowing in the US, and started cutting rates late. But expectations about the pace of easing may be set by the minutes."According to Pantheon Macroeconomics, the Fed is more likely to begin cutting rates in 25-basis-point increments rather than issuing another 50-basis-point rate cut."Even so, we still think the FOMC is putting undue emphasis on the current strength of the economy rather than the direction of travel and the lagged impact of earlier tightening still in the pipeline," economists at the research firm said in a note. "We expect a 25bp easing in November but think a soft run of jobs and activity data in Q4 and Q1 will soon have the Fed scrambling to avoid falling behind the curve."Central bankers will assess another jobs report and the September Consumer Price Index, which will be published Thursday morning, before making their next rate move. The inflation report will be a high-stakes data point for the Fed after the big September payroll report, with markets anxious that officials may have to turn their attention back to prices after pivoting to the labor market at their last meeting. Markets are pricing in an 88% chance the Fed will issue a quarter-point cut, while odds of another jumbo-sized cut have been slashed completely, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Google parent Alphabet fell 1% in early trading as the US Department of Justice <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://storage.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205/gov.uscourts.dcd.223205.1052.0_1.pdf">indicated it could break up the tech giant</a>. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,752.93, up 0.06% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,194.38, up 0.27% (+114 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,150.47, down 0.18%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-interest-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-recession-no-landing-borrowing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">The economy is facing a "no-landing" scenario</a> that could take away some relief from higher interest rates.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mortgage-rate-increase-since-federal-reserve-cut-interest-rates-housing-2024-10?_gl=1*i6n3nu*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyODQ3ODgzNS40MjMuMS4xNzI4NDgwNDc4LjMxLjAuMA..">Fed rate cuts were expected to push mortgage rates lower</a>, but the opposite has happened.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stocks-q3-earnings-lower-rates-stocks-returns-outlook-bofa-2024-10">The bar for corporate earnings is low</a>. That's good news for stocks, as long as companies are feeling upbeat about rate cuts, according to Bank of America.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 2% to $72.06 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was fell 2% to $75.63 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.39% to $2,612.00 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was about flat at 4.041%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> edged lower 0.8% to trade at $61,930.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The global population is getting older. </li><li>The trend will lead to lower returns, earnings growth, and valuations, JPMorgan strategists say.</li></ul>The aging of the world population is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, which will likely produce bad outcomes for the stock market, JPMorgan strategists say.The strategists say that historically, an older population has led to declining returns, lower earnings growth, and weaker valuations.Over a 10-year period, a 1% increase in the number of people over 65 is correlated with a 0.92% decline in annual stock returns, the strategists calculated in a report released last week.They point mainly to slower growth and falling valuations.With an older investor base looking to save for retirement, investment capital declines, leading to less innovation. That, plus slower growth in the workforce, will have a negative impact on earnings growth, the strategists say."Domestic population aging may reduce earnings growth for several reasons. It leads to slower workforce growth, reducing domestic economic growth. There is also evidence that aging can reduce innovation and productivity growth," the strategists said.That's especially true for companies that derive revenue from international operations, the strategists say."For companies that derive more of their revenue from abroad, like multinationals, global population aging (in a GDP-weighted sense) is likely to be more consequential for earnings growth than local population aging," the strategists wrote.That means equity market indexes with small and mid-caps will likely see more impact from local population aging than those with exclusively large caps.Valuations will also take a hit, the strategists said. As the elderly empty their retirement funds, national savings decline, thus raising bond yields. Older populations also pull out of the market at higher rates, driving down stock prices.Those trends, plus lower earnings growth expectations, justify lower valuations, the strategists say.The strategists say there's one bright spot, though. That's healthcare, which older populations tend to spend more on."We find a clear positive relationship between aging and excess returns on the sector, driven entirely by faster earnings growth," the strategists said.A 1% increase in the population share of those over 65 will lead to a 0.85% increase in health care returns over a 10-year period, the strategists say.The strategists note, too, that the populating aging trend won't impact countries equally. In China, the elderly share of the population is set to increase by seven percentage points in the next decade. The US, meanwhile, will see a more moderate rise from 18.1% to 21.5%.Past reports have also warned of the aging population's impact on the economy.Earlier this year, Barclays economist Jonathan Millar said boomers, a historically large generation, are approaching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/baby-boomer-gen-z-millennials-economy-housing-job-market-stocks-2024-2">"peak burden" on the US economy</a> in the next few years. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/recession-economy-outlook-us-stock-market-ownership-old-americans-retirement-2024-1">a larger share of people over 55% owning stocks</a> in the US may be a downside risk to the market, as older investors often don't have the luxury of holding through a downturn and could exacerbate volatility by selling during market pullbacks.

The world population is growing older. That's bad news for the stock market.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks ticked lower on Wednesday. </li><li>Shares of Nvidia wavered after rallying in the previous session. </li></ul>US stocks slumped on Wednesday, with major averages down as bond yields rose as Nvidia shares wavered and investors eyed fresh economic data. Nvidia shares slid as much as 1.2% in early-morning trading before paring losses, trading about 0.25% higher shortly after the opening bell. The chipmaker lost over $400 billion in a three-day stretch before recovering in Tuesday's session. The slide has given pause to traders that have ridden the artificial intelligence boom higher all year, and is casting doubt on how much room it left to run as the market heads into the second half of 2024. "So far, investors are viewing NVIDIA's sell-off as an opportunity to build up additional exposure," Morrison said in a note on Wednesday. "Let's see if investors remain so convinced of the chip designer's future that they drive it up to new highs. If so, then it will restore the company's status as the stock market's bullish bellwether. If not, then further weakness could easily sour sentiment in general, even if there is perceived value outside the tech leaders."Traders are also waiting for PCE inflation on Friday. The measure of consumer prices is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Dow Jones economists expect personal consumption expenditures inflation to rise 2.6% over the month of May, slightly lower than the 2.7% price increase recorded in April.Fed commentators this week have further tempered the market's bullishness around rate cuts this year. On Tuesday, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman noted that a rate hike was still in the cards if inflation doesn't cooperate.Treasury yields were up on Wednesday. The 10-year bond yield rose six basis points to 4.3%. Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,459.39, down 0.17% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,011.75, down 0.29% (-114.46 points) </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,702.33, down 0.09%Here's what else is going on today:</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/dietrich-stock-market-outlook-bubble-crash-spx-recession-economy-fed-2024-6?_gl=1*1uwp8y9*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcxOTQwMjMxNC44OC4xLjE3MTk0MDI2MzMuNjAuMC4w">The S&amp;P 500 could crater as much as 48%</a> when the stock market bubble finally pops, according to one elite strategist.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rivian-stock-price-soars-5-billion-jv-deal-with-volkswagen-2024-6">Rivian stock soared</a> after the EV maker inked a partnership deal with Volkswagen. </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/texas-negative-natural-gas-prices-heatwave-energy-supply-electricity-bills-2024-6">Natural gas prices in Texas</a> have turned negative despite a heat wave in the state. </li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil ticked higher 0.11% to $80.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, rose 0.19% to $84.39 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> dipped 0.98% to $2,296 per ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield rose six basis points to 4.302%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> ticked higher 0.72% to $61,544.</li></ul>

Stock market news: US stocks slide and bond yields rise as traders eye new economic data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rose Monday as investors rebounded from the year's worst weekly decline.</li><li>The S&amp;P 500 fell over 4% last week after the August jobs report missed estimates.</li></ul>US stocks traded higher on Monday as investors attempted to rebound <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-worst-week-august-jobs-report-recession-fears-2024-9">from the worst weekly decline of the year.</a>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> dropped more than 4% last week, its worst weekly loss since March 2023, after the August jobs report failed to meet economist estimates.Looking ahead, investors will be focused on new inflation data, with the consumer price index report for August set to be released Wednesday morning.Average economist estimates suggest prices rose 2.6% year-over-year last month, a sizable drop from the 2.9% reading seen in July.According to Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn, a light CPI reading could help determine how much the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates at its FOMC meeting next week.If CPI comes in at 2.6%, it would represent the lowest inflation reading since March 2021, and it would afford the Fed more flexibility to focus more on supporting employment growth than worrying about inflation."The disinflation process has stalled in recent months but if forecasts are right, the August drop could see expectations lean closer to a 50 basis point cut throughout this week, possibly giving risk assets another leg higher," Hathorn said in an email to Business Insider.The CME FedWatch Tool currently expects a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week, with just a 25% chance for a 50 basis point cut.Investors will also turn their attention to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/apple-stock-price-prediction-iphone-16-event-next-week-surprise-2024-9">Apple's iPhone 16 launch announcement</a> scheduled for later this afternoon, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-harris-presidential-debate-preview-2024-9">Presidential debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump</a> on Tuesday evening, and the release of initial jobless claims Thursday morning.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,456.53, up 0.89% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,614.38, up 0.67% (_268.97 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,885.81, up 1.17% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">Here's why the presidential race between Trump and Harris remains a virtual dead heat.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-major-flaw-7-trillion-cash-bull-thesis-2024-9">There's a major flaw in the stock market's most bullish thesis.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aging-world-population-stock-market-risk-jpmorgan-returns-valuations-growth-2024-9">A shrinking world population is bad news for the stock market, according to JPMorgan.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/10-us-cities-metros-housing-market-home-prices-texas-florida-2024-9">Home prices are falling the fastest in these 10 US cities, according to data from Realtor.com.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil increased 0.37% to $67.92 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, jumped 0.31% to $71.28 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.38% to $2,534.10 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was higher by 2 basis points at 3.732%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.93% to $55,389.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks rise as traders try to rebound after worst week of the year

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks surged Friday, with the Dow Jones hitting a record high on new inflation data.</li><li>The personal consumption expenditures Index rose 2.5% year-over-year, matching estimates.</li></ul>US stocks moved higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average testing record highs as investors digested new inflation data.The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, considered to be the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, was in-line with the prior reading for the month of July.The PCE Index rose 2.5% year over year, which was in line with economist estimates, and it rose 0.2% month over month, also in line with estimates.Fitch Ratings economist Olu Sonola said the PCE data was a "double dose of good news" for investors."Inflation prints are slowly but surely becoming boring again as this report continues the recent streak of benign core and headline inflation prints. Consumer spending continues to surprisingly exceed all expectations, a clear indication that the economy continues to be in good shape with solid above-trend growth," Sonola said.Aside from the inflation data, investors are parsing over solid earnings reports that were released after the market close on Thursday, mainly from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/dell-stock">Dell Technologies</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/mrvl-stock">Marvell Technology.</a>Both tech-focused companies beat second-quarter profit and revenue estimates, with their respective AI-focused businesses driving the beats.Shares of Marvell soared 12% in Friday morning trades, while Dell Technologies stock was up 5%.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,617.86, up 0.46% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,431.05, up 0.23% (+96 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,647.97, 0.71%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-banks-return-payments-shipped-goods-exports-sanctions-2024-8">Some Chinese banks are so fearful of sanctions that they're returning payments for goods that have reached Russia.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-investing-business-deal-openai-chatgpt-tech-microsoft-ai-2024-8">OpenAI is raising more money, and potential new investors could reportedly include Apple and Nvidia.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-tim-walz-first-interview-cnn-takeaways-2024-8">Here are the 5 takeaways from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz's first joint interview since launching their campaign.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-frozen-reserves-funds-us-sanctions-g7-ukraine-aid-outlook-2024-8">The EU will push ahead with plans to use frozen Russian funds to aid Ukraine despite US concerns.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-vs-apple-top-ai-stock-iphone16-device-chips-citi-2024-8">Apple will eclipse Nvidia as the top AI stock in 2025 as it gears up to launch its iPhone 16, Citi said.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil decreased 2.42% to $74.07 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, dropped 2.11% to $77.16 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was lower by 0.46% to $2,548.40 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 3.872%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.39% to $59,600.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks rise on solid earnings and in-line inflation reading

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks rebounded Monday, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining over 1% after last week's losses.</li><li>Investors are optimistic ahead of key inflation data to be released on Wednesday. </li></ul>US stocks staged a rebound on Monday from last week's painful losses.The S&amp;P 500 gained just over 1%, recouping about a quarter of its 4% decline last week.Investors pushed stocks higher ahead of key inflation data this week.The consumer price index report for August will be released Wednesday morning. Average economist estimates suggest prices rose 2.6% year-over-year last month, a sizable drop from the 2.9% reading seen in July.According to Capital.com senior market analyst Daniela Hathorn, a light CPI reading could help determine whether the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 25 or 50 basis points at its policy meeting next week."The disinflation process has stalled in recent months but if forecasts are right, the August drop could see expectations lean closer to a 50 basis point cut throughout this week, possibly giving risk assets another leg higher," Hathorn said in an email.The CME FedWatch Tool shows investors expect a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed next week, with just a 25% chance for a 50 basis point cut.The CPI data will be followed by the producer price index on Thursday morning, which market veteran Louis Navellier believes will help push yields lower."With the Fed's favorite inflation indicator, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index rising at only a 1.7% annual pace in the past three months, I am expecting favorable CPI and PPI data to further help drive Treasury yields lower," Navellier said in a Monday note.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,471.05, up 1.16% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 40,829.59, up 1.2% (+484.18 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 16,884.60, up 1.16% </li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-event-iphone-16-announcement-live-updates-2024-9">Apple unveiled several new products on Monday with AI-focused features, including the Apple Watch Series 10, AirPods 4, and iPhone 16.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-momentum-presidential-race-debate-polls-2024-9">Here's why the presidential race between Trump and Harris remains a virtual dead heat.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-major-flaw-7-trillion-cash-bull-thesis-2024-9">There's a major flaw in the stock market's most bullish thesis.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/aging-world-population-stock-market-risk-jpmorgan-returns-valuations-growth-2024-9">A shrinking world population is bad news for the stock market, according to JPMorgan.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/10-us-cities-metros-housing-market-home-prices-texas-florida-2024-9">Home prices are falling the fastest in these 10 US cities, according to data from Realtor.com.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/palantir-stock-price-soars-ai-company-added-sp500-index-pltr-2024-9">Palantir soared as much as 14% on Monday after it was revealed the company would be added to the S&amp;P 500 later this month.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil increased 1.37% to $68.60 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, jumped 0.93% to $71.72 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was up 0.39% to $2,534.50 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was lower by 1 basis point to 3.703%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 4.13% to $57,144.</li></ul>

You Searched For "us markets news" and got 12 results

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Stock market today: US stocks trade mixed with Fed minutes and rate outlook in focus

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Stock market news: US stocks slide and bond yields rise as traders eye new economic data

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Stock market today: US stocks rise on solid earnings and in-line inflation reading

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