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Finance Minister <keyword id="19916618" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords">Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> on Tuesday announced <keyword id="20404375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="income-tax-relief" source="keywords">income tax relief</keyword> for the <keyword id="20071167" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="middle-class" source="keywords">middle class</keyword>, a Rs 2 lakh crore outlay for <keyword id="22517841" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="job-creation-schemes" source="keywords">job creation schemes</keyword> over the next five years and a spending splurge for states run by her party's new coalition partners as she unveiled <keyword id="20509939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Modi-3-0" source="keywords">Modi 3.0</keyword> government's first budget after the general elections. With rural distress and unemployment being blamed for BJP losing its majority, Sitharaman in her seventh straight budget provided Rs 2.66 lakh crore for <keyword id="20027688" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-development" source="keywords">rural development</keyword> and maintained spending on long-term infrastructure projects at Rs 11.11 lakh crore to boost <keyword id="19900794" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-growth" source="keywords">economic growth</keyword>. She abolished 'angel tax' for all classes of investors in startups, cut customs duty on mobile phones and gold and simplified capital gains tax. She, however, raised the securities transaction tax (STT) on futures and options of securities, which led to tanking of stock markets. "India's economic growth continues to be the shining exception (in a world that is gripped by policy uncertainties) and will remain so in the years ahead," she said. "In this budget, we particularly focus on <keyword id="19898684" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="employment" source="keywords">employment</keyword>, <keyword id="20374219" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="skilling" source="keywords">skilling</keyword>, MSMEs, and the middle class." Besides Rs 2 lakh crore provided over a five year period for schemes and initiatives to facilitate employment, skilling and other opportunities for 4.1 crore youth, "I have made a provision of Rs 1.48 lakh crore for education, employment and skilling," she said. For Bihar, where assembly elections are due next year, the finance minister announced spending of Rs 60,000 crore on infrastructure projects like expressways, power plant, heritage corridors and new airports. The support to Bihar, whose ruling party and BJP's partner JD-U has been demanding an economic package and special category status for the state, is in the form of capital projects but not subsidy or cash dole. Similarly, for Andhra Pradesh, whose ruling TDP recently joined BJP-led NDA, she allocated Rs 15,000 crore in financial aid through multilateral agencies. A similar request for support to Bihar will be expedited, she said. For the middle class, she raised standard deduction -- a flat deduction from total salary earned by an employee in a year before calculating applicable income tax rate -- by 50 per cent to Rs 75,000 and tweaked tax slabs for taxpayers opting for the new income tax regime. This will lead to taxpayers under the new tax regime -- which offers lower rates of taxes but permits limited deductions and exemptions -- saving up to Rs 17,500 in tax annually, she said. To spur employment, the Budget provided for incentives for companies, including paying for one-month salary for first-time employees, incentive at specified sale to both employee and empower with respect to their retirement fund contribution in the first four years of employment and reimbursing employers up to Rs 3,000 per month for 2 years towards EPFO contribution of each additional employee. Also, a programme to improve skills as well internship for students and subsidised loans for higher education will be provided, she said. India's official unemployment rate in urban areas is pegged at 6.7 per cent but private agencies put it at much higher levels. Buoyed by robust tax collections and a higher-than-expected dividend receipt from the Reserve Bank, Sitharaman said the government's fiscal deficit -- the difference between the total revenue earned and total expenditure -- will be trimmed to 4.9 per cent of the GDP in 2024-25, below the 5.1 per cent figure estimated in the interim budget she presented in February. She reduced gross market borrowing marginally to Rs 14.01 lakh crore. The Budget for 2024-25 fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025) allocated Rs 1.52 lakh crore for agriculture and allied sectors, aid for building 3 crore affordable housing units in urban and rural areas, provided credit support to small and medium businesses, raised small loans to Rs 20 lakh for small business, proposed setting up 12 industrial parks, and provided for setting up a Rs 1,000 crore venture capital fund for space sector.

Modi 3.0 1st Budget: Tax relief for middle class, Rs 2 lakh cr job scheme

<ul><li>A married woman’s employability is linked to a mother-in-law’s employment status, husband’s salary and so on, as per a new report.</li><li>For underprivileged <keyword id="121387" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rural-women" source="Orion">rural women</keyword>, there is no marriage and motherhood penalty when it comes to employment.</li><li>Most such women, however, turn into contributing family workers in agriculture and work for subsistence.</li><li>In districts where women have high paid jobs, there are also more cases of domestic violence. </li></ul>One generation leads the other and that’s true in the case of women and their employment status in India. An unemployed mother-in-law can bring down the employability of a married woman and vice-versa, according to the ‘State of Working India 2023’ report by <keyword id="125797" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="azim-premji-university" source="Orion">Azim Premji University</keyword>. Proving that there is an inter-generational effect on gender norms, the report says that a married woman living in a household with an unemployed mother-in-law is less likely to be employed — 20% less likelihood in urban areas, and 30% in rural areas. This is in comparison to households without a mother-in-law. “However, if the mother-in-law was present and employed herself, this is associated with a higher likelihood of women’s participation to the extent of 50% (rural) to 70% (urban) more than households with no mother-in-law present,” the report released on Wednesday said. The husband and his earnings The story of women and employment in India is far from a straight line – many factors including marital status, economic status and motherhood – all have a direct impact on it. For married women especially, the husband’s salary is seen to have a direct impact. The report finds that husband’s income has a U-shaped effect on women’s employability. “A common gender norm is the “male breadwinner” norm, i.e. husbands are considered the primary earners with wives contributing to household income only if necessary,” the report says. In households where the husband’s earnings are high, the probability of the wife being employed is low, controlling for individual and household factors. But it’s not a straight line. After the husband's salary crosses ₹40,000 per month, women’s employability increases, especially in urban areas. “This U-shaped pattern could result from a change in norms with rising incomes or it could also be due to the fact that such husbands are matched with higher educated wives who have preferences as well as opportunities to access better paid work,” the report says. What’s the price of a job? In the case of rural women, marriage and motherhood only improves their employment. However, that’s associated with the fact that they turn into contributing family workers in agricultural work or find or find self-employment. “Thus, for women in the informal economy, rather than a marriage or motherhood penalty for employment, we find the reverse. But the absence of a penalty may not be a positive outcome since it likely reflects a compulsion to work for subsistence,” says the report. But are women happier with more employability? There is no straight answer for this question as well because there is data to show that districts that report high rates of working women also show women saying that they make their own healthcare decisions, own large assets or meet relatives. Yet, independence comes with a painful price for working women – as districts with higher percentages of women with paid working jobs also report higher domestic violence. “The suggested mechanism is that working women are more likely to face partner violence due to challenging of established gender norms,” the report says.

Saas, bahu aur naukri: The inter-generational effect on gender norms

To ensure that the unemployed rural population of India also fulfils its <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=entrepreneur&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">entrepreneurial dreams</a>, a new programme is going to be launched soon on the lines of ‘<a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=startup+india&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">Startup India, Standup India’</a>. 
 
The Deen Dayal Upadhyay Swaniyojan Yojana will be launched soon in which rural poor will be able to explore self-employment opportunities. 
 
The programme, which will be funded by the National Rural Livelihood Mission of the rural development ministry, will have skill sets such as driving, plumbing, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=agriculture&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">agriculture</a>, horticulture, etc. 
 
In case of funding, the Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency, or the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=mudra+bank&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">MUDRA Bank</a> will oversee it. 
 
As per the Socio Economic and Caste Census (SECC) data, one third of India's rural households are landless and depend on manual labour for an income, highlighting the need for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.in/searchresult.cms?query=skill+development&amp;sortorder=effectivedate">skill development</a> in these areas. 
 
(Image: Indiatimes)

Unemployed rural-poor to get desi version of ‘Startup India, Standup India’, fulfil entrepreneurial dreams

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A poll conducted by a <keyword id="6355624" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="rural">rural</keyword> super PAC found only half of rural voters credit <keyword id="6534156" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Democrats">Democrats</keyword> with <keyword id="45304" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Stimulus">stimulus</keyword> checks.</li><li>This is notable given that not a single Republican voted for <keyword id="60973" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Biden">Biden</keyword>'s $1.9 trillion stimulus.</li><li>A persistent feature of American <keyword id="6358883" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="politics">politics</keyword> is voters' failure to understand government's role in their lives.</li></ul>Americans have so far received three stimulus checks. The first two were distributed under President Donald Trump's watch and not a single Republican voted for the third round, and yet, only half of rural voters are giving Democrats the credit. A <a href="https://actionnetwork.org/user_files/user_files/000/059/832/original/RuralObjective_toplines.pdf">poll</a> conducted by Rural Objective PAC - a super PAC that works to build support for Democrats in rural areas - found that 50% of voters in rural areas associate providing COVID-19 stimulus checks directly to American families with the Democratic Party, while 32% associated the payments with Republicans, 11% with neither party, and 7% weren't sure."We're not connecting with these voters, even if we have great <keyword id="28351" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="policy">policy</keyword>," JD Scholten, the executive director of the Rural Objective PAC, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/05/18/democrats-think-voters-will-reward-them-sending-checks-what-if-theyre-wrong/">told</a> Greg Sargent and Paul Waldman of The Washington Post, which previously reported on the poll's findings.The poll surveyed 2,149 voters in nine battleground states - Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, and Wisconsin - and while 68% of those voters support stimulus checks, it's clear that Democrats aren't getting credit for a cornerstone of President Joe Biden's American Rescue Plan.The majority of rural voters did associate Democrats with extended unemployment benefits and state aid, though, and even as Democrats are calling for recurring stimulus aid, voters are not associating the already provided aid with Democrats. Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus plan passed using budget reconciliation without a single Republican voting for the plan, which included $1,200 checks. It's true that the first two checks occurred under Trump, since he signed a $1,400 check and a $600 check into law as part of his pandemic aid efforts, although he signed both of those while Democrats controlled the House under Speaker Nancy Pelosi.Some Democratic lawmakers are also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-payments-permanent-recurring-checks-democrats-universal-basic-income-2021-4">calling</a> to make stimulus checks permanent - something that has received broad support from both Republican and Democratic voters given that it would cut the number of Americans in poverty in 2021 from <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-stimulus-checks-help-fight-poverty-economic-security-project-2021-4">44 million to 16 million</a>. Twenty-one Democratic senators urged Biden in a <a href="https://s3.amazonaws.com/s3.boldprogressives.org/images/033021_Automatic_Stabilizers_Letter_Final.pdf">letter</a> to include recurring direct payments in his $4 trillion infrastructure plan and said that "a single direct payment will not last long for most families, and we are worried about the cliff facing unemployed workers when the unemployment insurance extensions expire on September 6."But voters not knowing who to credit for certain policies is nothing new. When former President Barack Obama was attempting to reform the healthcare system over a decade ago, <a href="https://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/obama-pokes-fun-at-don-t-touch-my-medicare-people">many voters</a> don't want the government to interfere with their Medicare when Medicare is, in fact, a government-run program."I got a letter the other day from a woman. She said, 'I don't want government-run health care. I don't want socialized medicine. And don't touch my Medicare,'" President Barack Obama said at an AARP-hosted <a href="http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/2009/07/transcript-obama-aarp-hold-health-care-town-hall.php">town hall</a> on healthcare in 2009. "I wanted to say, you know, that's what Medicare is: a government-run health care plan that people are very happy with."The Washington Post separately <a href="http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/27/AR2009072703066_2.html?hpid=topnews&amp;sid=ST20090727031073107">reported</a> in 2009 that a rural voter told South Carolina Rep. Robert Inglis to "keep your government hands off my Medicare," to which Inglis had to explain to the voter that his healthcare was provided by the government.As Scholten told the Post, if there's one thing that Democrats could use to win support of <keyword id="3830395" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="rural-america">rural America</keyword>, it would be direct payments."This was one of the biggest investments we've seen in rural America since the New Deal," Scholten told Sargent and Waldman. "It's good policy. It should be good politics, too, but right now Democrats aren't taking advantage of it."

Only half of rural voters know that Democrats voted to send them stimulus checks, new poll finds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A Indian restaurant in <keyword id="11916587" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="maine" source="Orion">Maine</keyword> said it pivoted to takeout and delivery only due to staff shortages.</li><li>It currently has around six members of staff, compared to between 10 and 12 in a typical summer.</li><li>"It's just really hard to find Indian labor in the state of Maine," the owners' son said.</li></ul>An Indian restaurant <a href="https://www.bombaymahal.com/">said to be the oldest in Maine</a> has shut its dining room because it can't find enough staff, according to the son of its owners.Van Sharma, whose parents own the Bombay Mahal restaurant in Brunswick, southern Maine, said that the <keyword id="11908404" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="labor-shortage" source="Orion">labor shortage</keyword> had hit it harder than others because it has a specific difficulty: recruiting Indian workers."It's just really hard to find Indian labor in the state of Maine," Sharma told Insider. "Indian people, Indian chefs, Indian waiters, they have no desire on wanting to come to Maine for work, regardless of the opportunity."Sharma added that workers would sometimes come to Maine but leave after a few weeks because of how rural it is and how few people of color live there. "They love to concentrate in more Asian-concentrated neighborhoods or areas of the US," he said, naming New York City, New Jersey, Texas, and California.Maine is the <a href="https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/interactive/racial-and-ethnic-diversity-in-the-united-states-2010-and-2020-census.html">least diverse</a> state in the US, according to 2020 Census data.Sharma said that he'd used some US recruitment companies that specialize in South Asian workers but that "essentially every single one of them is extremely dry on talent."This was coupled with a lack of interest from seasonal workers, including college students, whom Sharma said usually made up a large part of the restaurant's staffing during the summer. Workers have been leaving the industry in search of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-shortage-georgia-restaurant-staff-quit-macon-work-jobs-employment-2021-9">better wages, benefits, and working conditions</a>.Sharma said that Bombay Mahal had been "highly understaffed" throughout the pandemic but "right now is probably the rock bottom in regards to actual staffing." He said that the restaurant currently had around six members of staff compared with the 10 to 12 it had in a typical summer.The restaurant closed its dining room and pivoted to takeout and delivery-only about a month ago. Other <keyword id="11916214" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="restaurants" source="Orion">restaurants</keyword> across the US have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chick-fil-a-restaurants-alabama-labor-shortage-closed-dining-rooms-2021-8">shut their dining rooms</a> or <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-shortage-chick-fil-a-closing-early-short-staffing-alabama-2021-8">cut their opening hours</a>.Sharma said that Bombay Mahal was advertising roles with base pay of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/biden-labor-worker-shortage-pay-15-hour-be-in-bind-2021-7">$15 an hour</a>. He said that staff were also offered meal allowances, performance bonuses, and a family-style lunch each day.Expanded Coverage Module: what-is-the-labor-shortage-and-how-long-will-it-last

Maine's oldest Indian restaurant closed its dining room because it couldn't find enough waiters and chefs, the son of its owners said

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="11892748" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="china" source="Orion">China</keyword>'s youth unemployment rate climbed to 18.4% — the highest recorded rate since 2018.</li><li>The situation is expected to get worse as 10.78 million university students graduate this summer.</li></ul>China's Gen Zs, who grew up during <a href="https://www.mckinsey.com/cn/our-insights/our-insights/chinas-gen-z-are-coming-of-age-heres-what-marketers-need-to-know">the nation's golden era of economic progress</a>, are facing a shrinking <keyword id="11893504" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="job" source="Orion">job</keyword> market amid the country's <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2022/06/08/covid-19-outbreaks-and-headwinds-have-disrupted-china-s-growth-normalization-world-bank-report">slowest economic growth in decades</a>.As a result of prolonged, pandemic-driven lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing between March and May, the <a href="https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/china/publication/china-economic-update-june-2022#:~:text=China's%20economy%20is%20projected%20to%20slow%20in%202022.&amp;text=We%20project%20real%20GDP%20growth,the%20December%20China%20Economic%20Update.">World Bank</a> projected that China's economic growth will slow to 4.3% in 2022 — 0.8% lower than its initial projection in December.In May, the <a href="http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/202206/t20220615_1858258.html">National Bureau of Statistics of China</a> said the unemployment rate for youths aged 16 to 24 hit 18.4%. That's the highest recorded rate since the data was first published in January 2018, according to <a href="https://www.caixinglobal.com/2022-06-15/chart-of-the-day-chinas-record-high-youth-unemployment-rate-101899583.html">Caixin</a>, a Beijing-based news publication. The figure is expected to increase when 10.78 million university students graduate this summer, per a June 2 statement by <a href="http://en.moe.gov.cn/news/media_highlights/202106/t20210603_535303.html">China's Ministry of Education.</a>The country's entry-level job market is bleaker than it was during the 2008 global financial crisis, with the number of new jobs falling by 20 to 30% from 2021, Rockee Zhang, the managing director for Greater China at recruitment firm Randstad, told <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/record-numbers-chinese-graduates-enter-worst-job-market-decades-2022-06-23/">Reuters</a> in June."This year is a low point, the lowest I've seen," Zhang said.Graduates are worried about their job prospects, too. Computer science graduate Jenny Bai told Reuters that a Beijing-based internet firm rescinded job offers to her and 10 other prospective candidates. "I'm worried," Bai said. "If I can't find a job, I'm not sure what I'll do."<div type="image" title="Group of workers at small parts manufacturing factory in China, wearing protective clothing, hats and masks -" height="3840" width="5119" msid="92590555" hostid="261" sizebytes="554926"></div>China has plenty of <a href="https://www.latimes.com/world/la-fg-china-millennials-jobs-20190512-story.html">manufacturing jobs</a>, but educated graduates are not willing or trained to do them. Instead, many young job seekers are keen on joining big tech companies: An <a href="https://21jingji.com/article/20220429/herald/5d348ac9ec7e8f5a32519c1f2e4615ff.html">April report</a> released by Tongdao Liepin Group, a China-based talent recruiter, showed a 19.67% year-on-year increase in job applications for big tech firms from fresh graduates. To minimize youth unemployment, China is offering tax incentives and loans to entice graduates to open businesses in villages, per <a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2022/06/13/economy/china-youth-unemployment-countryside-recruitment-intl-hnk/index.html">CNN</a>. Small businesses in rural areas that hire graduates will also be given similar benefits. However, some graduates fear the government initiative is akin to Mao Zedong's 1960s "<a href="https://edition.cnn.com/2019/05/04/asia/china-youth-policy-intl/index.html">Up to the Mountains and Down to the Countryside Movement</a>" policy, where urban youth were shipped off to rural areas and wasted their best years learning farming from villages.

Unemployment among China's Gen Z has hit a record high — and it's only expected to get worse

<ul class="summary-list"><li>There's a disconnect between open jobs and what workers want.</li><li><keyword id="48670" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Morgan-Stanley">Morgan Stanley</keyword> says some temporary forces are holding them back, but there's also a bigger "<keyword id="1314343" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Mismatch">mismatch</keyword>."</li><li>The big question is migration: how big and permanent it is, and what jobs will result.</li></ul>You may have heard that there's a bit of a <keyword id="637029" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="labor-shortage">labor shortage</keyword>.It's unprecedented in its scale and mysterious in its origins. There has never been such a reluctance by the unemployed to go into open roles, as far back as labor-market data goes.<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/july-jobs-report-high-wage-growth-restaurants-hotels-workers-raise-2021-8">Wages are up</a>, the number of people quitting their jobs is <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/record-number-workers-quitting-in-third-month-here-to-stay-2021-8">consistently near record highs</a>, and there's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-shortage-more-job-openings-available-workers-jolts-june-2021-8">more open roles than job seekers</a>. Why do these gaps persist, with millions of Americans still unemployed?The answer is more complicated than just pure numbers. In a Tuesday note, economists at Morgan Stanley led by <keyword id="2771683" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Ellen-Zentner">Ellen Zentner</keyword> laid out the three main factors creating a labor crunch.<h2>(1) School closures are probably playing a role</h2>A few of the circumstances currently holding workers back are set to clear up in the fall, as schools reopen fully and enhanced <keyword id="6358907" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment">unemployment</keyword> benefits wind down, Zentner's team says. Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-shortage-outlook-unemployment-benefits-childcare-federal-reserve-brainard-2021-6">has also said</a> that labor <keyword id="475892" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="shortages">shortages</keyword> should ease by the fall.The Morgan Stanley economists cite a <a href="https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/20210709_mprfullreport.pdf">Federal Reserve analysis</a> that found more people did not participate in the labor force due to caregiving responsibilities during the pandemic. In fact, "the decrease in participation for caregiving reasons accounts for all of the decline in participation for mothers."<a href="https://www.wibc.com/news/coronavirus/labor-secretary-pandemic-child-care-shortage-driving-worker-shortage/" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Politicians</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/schools-closures-and-elderly-covid-fears-behind-labor-shortage-ubs-2021-5" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">experts</a> have identified childcare, or lack thereof, as a primary driver of current shortages. Schools reopening will offer more concrete, in-person options for parents - although <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/schools-starting-back-up-moms-might-not-return-work-months-2021-8">experts say</a> that moms may not return to work for months.While preliminary findings <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployment-benefits-jobs-growth-employment-ui-states-cutting-early-gop-2021-7">have shown</a> that ending enhanced unemployment early did not compel workers back, the left-leaning Century Foundation <a href="https://tcf.org/content/report/7-5-million-workers-face-devastating-unemployment-benefits-cliff-labor-day/?session=1">projects</a> that 7.5 million workers are set to lose all benefits come September - likely hastening the need for those workers to seek out new roles.A more sticky issue is the growing number of retirees over the age of 55. Morgan Stanley said labor force participation dropping among America's older workers "may be harder to reverse," with the number of retirements exceeding projections - and many of those recent retirees are over 65, meaning the likelihood of them returning is lower.<h2>(2) A mismatch between the industries <keyword id="6357342" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Hiring">hiring</keyword> and the workers seeking jobs</h2>Morgan Stanley notes the uneven recovery among different industries, with job openings in some industries outpacing the number of workers who were initially laid off. That's true of manufacturing and professional services."Differences in skills and qualifications limit the extent to which workers can easily transition to high-demand industries, leading to a mismatch of labor supply and demand," Morgan Stanley writes. As <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-mismatch-labor-shortage-skills-regional-flexibility-remote-work-2021-7">Insider previously reported</a>, mismatches across the <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> - including both skills and expectations - have been fueling labor shortages during the pandemic recovery.A <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/reviews/out?platform=browser&amp;postSource=bi%7C61016fcd654b0222131f53f8&amp;sc=false&amp;type=LINK-WITH-REVIEW-SLASH-OUT&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.flexjobs.com%2Fblog%2Fpost%2Fjob-seekers-frustrated-by-lack-of-opportunities%2F&amp;sessionid=1628617175315sionid=1628617175315" rel="nofollow sponsored noindex">survey</a> of 1,800 workers by remote and flexible jobs site FlexJobs found that 48% were frustrated by their search, because they weren't finding the right positions.<h2>(3) People moved during the pandemic - but many jobs didn't</h2>A whole lot of people seized on the pandemic as an opportunity to leave behind the cities they lived in. Insider's Ben Winck and Hillary Hoffower <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/exurbs-suburbs-housing-market-migration-real-estate-commute-remote-work-2021-8">recently chronicled</a> the rise of the "exurb," rural areas on the fringe of later urban centers, where the commutes are weekly and not daily.Morgan Stanley writes that areas like New York and San Francisco have seen "substantial population outflows" but have huge numbers of open positions for services jobs. At the same time, exurban areas have lots of openings for professional roles. Neither the cities nor the exurbs seem to have enough of the right type of worker. The migration will have to settle before these needs for workers are satisfied, and that could take a long time.As the Morgan Stanley economists write: "After the 2008 financial crisis, regional misallocation of labor was one of the reasons that employment was slow to recover."

3 explanations for the labor shortage, according to Morgan Stanley

<ul class="summary-list"><li>You may have heard that there's a <keyword id="637029" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="labor-shortage">labor shortage</keyword>, as employers desperately woo workers.</li><li>But mismatches in skills, where workers are located, and what they want out of work could be to blame.</li><li>Those factors will probably continue to shape the strangeness of the <keyword id="409455" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="labor-market">labor market</keyword> for a while. </li></ul>Have you heard of this labor shortage? It's pretty wild, with millions of jobs open, and workers just not filling them.It's a sign of the remarkable success of the vaccination campaign under President Joe Biden. The <keyword id="34412" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="economy">economy</keyword> began reopening in earnest through the spring and is rapidly approaching normality in the summer, even as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cdc-delta-variant-more-than-half-cases-us-2021-7">Delta variant</a> sparks a concerning number of cases in unvaccinated areas. On the other hand, it's also thanks to huge <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-package-pandemic-surpass-great-recession-fiscal-plans-recovery-2021-3">federal stimulus</a>, as American consumers are unleashing a flood of money on the world's economy, and businesses can't staff up or keep up with it.But something deeper is going on: What economists call a "<keyword id="1314343" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="Mismatch">mismatch</keyword>." It's actually three mismatches at once. Central bankers previously said a mismatch could explain the "jobless" recovery from the Great Recession. A <a href="https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr566.pdf">2013 paper</a> by the New York Federal Reserve noted the job-finding rate was half that of 2006, and raised the theory that "the recession has produced a severe sectoral mismatch between vacant jobs and unemployed workers." The reopening of 2021 is more like a jobless jobs boom, with record numbers of <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/labor-shortage-quit-job-openings-record-vacancies-labor-department-2021-6">workers quitting</a>, a record high number of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jolts-may-job-openings-labor-market-data-worker-shortage-hiring-2021-7">job openings</a>, and a stubbornly <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/chart-job-openings-are-very-high-relative-to-unemployment-2021-7">high unemployment rate</a>. Here's what's going on under the hood.<h2>(1) Skills mismatch</h2>The skills people are hiring for aren't the same as what the work force has to offer. The right-leaning Chamber of Commerce <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-shortage-hiring-outlook-skill-gap-job-market-chamber-commerce-2021-6">has cited</a> the <keyword id="1468229" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="skills-gap">skills gap</keyword> as a driver of the shortage, arguing that workers need to be equipped with the skills to fill the openings all over the place.That goes both ways: Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that May job openings were high in industries like retail and leisure and hospitality, both traditionally low-paying. For workers pushed out of the workforce, those positions may not fit with their prior experience - or their old compensation."The jobs that are out there aren't the jobs that I used to have, that I'm skilled for," Dina Jones, 54, a jobless worker in Texas who had previously worked in the airline industry for 27 years, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-shortage-hiring-outlook-skill-gap-job-market-chamber-commerce-2021-6">previously told Insider</a>. "And that's the part that hurts."<h2>(2) Geographic mismatch</h2>The jobs are where the workers aren't.It's a downstream effect of the "Great Migration" of 2020 as the pandemic and work-from-home era encouraged a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-city-san-francisco-urban-exodus-migration-myth-bofa-2021-4">much bigger outflow</a> from urban to rural areas than previous years. In many ways, the pandemic accelerated a generally southwestern shift among Americans that was already evident in the 21st century.So many people moved to seasonal or remote locations in 2020 that they generated jobs booms where workers aren't numerous.Jessica Rabe, the cofounder of DataTrek Research, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/more-people-telling-jobs-to-shove-it-labor-shortage-datatrek-2021-7">told Insider</a> relocations could also be driving <keyword id="6469296" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="quits">quits</keyword> up. Workers migrating to suburbs are <keyword id="39922" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="quitting">quitting</keyword> jobs in urban areas, which are struggling for labor.<h2>(3) Expectations mismatch</h2>People just have higher expectations of work now. Call it an existential reset brought on by a year of deadly disease and an unprecedented level of flexibility and working from home.It turns out that when you give people those options, they like it, and now they're looking for it. Betsy Mercado, senior vice president of human resources at Flynn Restaurant Group, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/job-openings-are-at-record-highs-why-arent-unemployed-americans-filling-them-11625823021?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f">told The Wall Street Journal</a> that "People have an ability now to really choose where they want to work," and they want a good deal. Employers aren't used to offering that.But they may have to. Employees would turn down a $30,000 raise if it meant they keep working at home, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/work-from-home-best-employee-benefit-blind-survey-2021-5">Insider's Caroline Hroncich reports</a>. Meanwhile, low-wage workers are seizing on the labor shortage to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fast-food-workers-use-labor-shortage-to-demand-higher-pay-2021-7">demand a higher minimum wage</a>, something that could <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-fix-labor-shortage-raising-minimum-wage-heidi-shierholz-2021-6">plug up shortages</a>. Either way, the evidence is clear: Blue and white-collar workers alike know that employers want them, and now they have the power.

3 'mismatches' that explain the labor shortage

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/unemployed-states-of-america-life-without-a-paycheck-in-2020-2020-9" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">Unemployed States of America</a> takes readers deep inside the decimated American workforce.</li><li>Amanda Stephenson is a 52-year-old small business owner from Collinsville, Oklahoma.</li><li>She ran a small business making and selling cheer uniforms and dance costumes, but hasn't had clients since February, when many local schools and performances were shut down.</li><li>On just $189 a week in <keyword id="6358907" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment">unemployment</keyword> benefits, Stephenson says she's had to sacrifice filling prescriptions, postponed planned dental work, and has been unable to buy school clothes for her son.</li><li>This is her story, as told to Business Insider.</li></ul>Since I lost my job, life has been stressful. My husband is still working, but he works for an airline and they've indicated layoffs are coming. Before, I'd worked to build up a clientele for my small business making and selling cheer uniforms and dance costumes, and I worry they won't be there once the pandemic is over.Our district just announced they're delaying the start of school, and no school or activities means no business for me. Because of the CARES Act, I'm able to collect pandemic unemployment, which I'm very thankful for; however, Oklahoma UI is $189 a week. I'm determined to not get behind on my house payment, but we've had to cut back on things like groceries, are unable to buy school clothes for my son, and are falling behind on other bills.(Editor's note: According to the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission, the state has both Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) benefits, which are federally funded and for self-employed or gig workers who are affected by COVID-19; and state Unemployment Insurance (UI), for traditional unemployment. For PUA, the minimum benefit is $189; claimants can submit tax information to have this amount recalculated and see if they qualify for a higher weekly amount. The maximum is $539.)<h2>I have friends in other states that collect about double what I do. It's been incredibly frustrating.</h2>Clearly, our system was outdated and that didn't help, but Oklahoma was also more concerned about fraud than processing claims. At one point, there were four different places on the homepage about reporting fraud, but you couldn't find the link to actually apply. They had a huge banner on the page that said, "Get back to work Oklahoma." It felt totally tone deaf, and is easier said than done.<h2>With less money coming in, I've had to sacrifice on medical care and filling prescriptions, and postponed planned dental work and buying glasses.</h2>We've been unable to make repairs to our home, and I've delayed buying a second family car.I'm worried about how we'll ever catch up on the bills we're unable to pay, and that my husband will get sick and be unable to work. I've had symptoms for a couple of weeks, and we're not sure he'd be paid to quarantine, although we feel he probably should quarantine. <h2>My job prospects right now are pretty much nonexistent.</h2>Because I can't spend the money to buy a second car, I'm very limited on jobs I could take, since we live in a rural area and there's not much here. Still, I spend a few hours a day looking for work and touching base with former clients.I honestly thought maybe there would be a positive side of all this — I think every generation has had a trial and comes out better. I thought that maybe we'd all be kinder, less entitled, and less self-absorbed.But instead it seems like everyone is nastier, more judgmental, and more ready to attack others. I see news stories and the media saying things and posting stories I can't believe. It's disappointing and makes me worry about where society is headed.Editor's note: An earlier version of this story has been edited to add information from the Oklahoma Employment Security Commission. This is an opinion column. The thoughts expressed are those of the subject and were part of a survey conducted by Business Insider.

I'm a 52-year-old small business owner in Oklahoma who's been on unemployment since February. Here's how I'm getting by.

New Delhi, July 6 (IANSlife) Human Liberty Network (HLN), a network of Civil Society Organisations (CSOs) with a vision for a human trafficking free society, released the findings of a survey it conducted in 15 districts of Bihar and 6 districts of Uttar Pradesh, and the revelations will have you squirming. 1200+ respondents revealed major challenges related to livelihood, access to health services, nutrition and basic needs post the return of migrant workers, which strongly increases their vulnerability to rural distress, debt bondage and human trafficking. The survey further reinforced targeted and coordinated efforts from the state governments and community based organisations, for rapid implementation of support mechanisms for the vulnerable. As a result of the lockdown, Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have been the worst affected states due to reverse migration, with 30 lakh people returning to Uttar Pradesh and 32 Lakh returning to Bihar as per the survey. Influx of such large numbers is displaying a direct impact on the rise of social injustice in the region. Stronger enforcement and better coordination between multiple stakeholders with a holistic can therefore play a game-changing role in protecting the lives of returnee migrants from exploitation and human trafficking. In the survey titled "Immediate Requirements to Allay Rural Distress and Human Trafficking" the following disturbing statistics came to fore: Bihar Only 29 percent of the population has active job cards; districts Saharsa, Sitamarhi, and Gopalganj are underperforming in providing jobs; only 37 percent of Gram Panchayats have adopted special measures for the single women workers 79.8 percent of Panchayats in the study area surveyed home visits by ASHA; 79.53 percent of the Panchayats did not survey any VHND conducted in the past 2 monthsUttar Pradesh The unemployment rate has risen to 23.8 percent in May 2020; work demanded under MGNREGA has increased by 307 percent; poor coverage of special measures and low functioning of Common Service Centres (CSC) 60.77 percent of the Panchayats in the study area did not survey any VHND conducted in the past 2 months; Underlining urgent interventions, Human Liberty Network strongly recommends: Improving livelihood: Mandate door to door registration of job cards; spreading awareness on MGNREGA through Information, Education and Communication (IEC) activities; registration of single women for MGNREGA job cards; expansion of the scope of work in accordance with the skill mapping, increasing coverage and functionality of CSCs Non-COVID related health issues: Coverage of Government healthcare schemes including Ayushman Bharat should be rapidly expanded especially among the most vulnerable communities to address a key driver of debt bondage i.e. emergency healthcare costs. Improving access to education: Special measures are taken so that vulnerable children can return to school as soon as possible Special workers should be tasked with identifying all out-of-school children, re-enrolling and retaining them Special measures should be taken to disassociate schools from the stigma of being converted into quarantine centres. Improve access to all schemes: As Know Your Consumer (KYC) compliance is the biggest reason for poor disbursement of free dry ration. Identification process of poor families without ration cards by JEEVIKA Self Help Groups should be strengthened. Speaking on the findings of the survey, a member of the Human Liberty Network, said, "The impact of COVID-19 and lockdown situation has been most severe on communities that are already disadvantaged and vulnerable to shocks. The network undertook this study to assess the impact on livelihood, health, education, nutrition, and basic needs associated with COVID-19. It illustrates the links between these effects and an increased vulnerability to human trafficking and conditions of bondage by providing a rapid assessment of the ground realities vis-à-vis policy measures to assist the government in providing action-oriented steps. Our top recommendations are that the issues surrounding marginalized communities should be addressed through coordinated efforts with key stakeholders. The governments should adopt measures for strengthening the accountability of Rozgar Sewaks and improving monitoring mechanisms through door to door registration of job cards for returning migrants." (IANSlife Features can be contacted at ianslife@ians.in) --IANS Ianslife/tb

Requirements to allay rural distress and human trafficking

<ul class="summary-list"><li>During the pandemic, I'm collecting <keyword id="6358907" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment">unemployment</keyword> and my kids are getting free <keyword id="1321723" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="school-lunch">school lunch</keyword> for the first time. </li><li>There's a lot of shame in utilizing public safety net programs, but the pandemic has shown me how important they are for everyone. </li><li>The assistance we're getting is making an impact for my family, but it wouldn't have been enough to help us stay afloat if I wasn't still working some. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/yourmoney?utm_source=bullet">Read more personal finance coverage</a>.</li></ul>"Lunch lady's here," my 5 year old yells before launching through the front door to say hello to the one non-family member she is allowed to socialize with these days. The lunch lady — wearing protective gloves and a mask — hands my daughter a tray with a bagged lunch and breakfast for the following day, before stepping back to chat from a safe distance. The free meals, normally reserved for low-income students, are provided to all kids in our school district during the pandemic. They're delivered to bus stops, but since we live in a rural area and the bus normally picks my daughter up at home, our lunch and breakfast are brought right to the front door. Meal delivery is just one way the <keyword id="6946734" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Social-safety-net">social safety net</keyword> has expanded to help keep me and my family safe during the pandemic. Over the past few years, my husband and I have <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/stay-at-home-dad-parent-female-breadwinner-worth-it" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scraped our way into the middle class</a>, but we're incredibly thankful to have access to social safety-net programs right now. For the first time in our lives, we're utilizing free lunches and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/do-i-qualify-for-unemployment-how-to-apply-for-benefits" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unemployment benefits</a>. I always knew these programs were incredibly important, but this time has highlighted just how much security they provide, and where they still fall short. <h2>A bagged lunch and a smile</h2>In early April, our district began offering the free lunches. I hesitated before accepting, wondering if we were "taking advantage" of the program, but a friend who works in the district assured me they really wanted all kids to use the program. After a few weeks, the program expanded to include breakfast and lunch for the weekends, and even began delivering meals for my toddler, who isn't yet enrolled in school. Knowing that my kids have breakfast and lunch delivered every day helps keep my grocery bills somewhat under control. This is especially important now, when our shopping bill has skyrocketed because all four family members are at home and snacking out of boredom a bit too often.However, the program is about so much more than a meal. It helps my daughter remain connected to her school community. It feels like an exciting surprise every day when she opens her bag. While the food is important, the emotional boost my girls get from the drop-off program is just as significant. <h2>My first time on unemployment</h2>Before school was cancelled and the severity of the pandemic had really revealed itself, New Hampshire announced that it would expand unemployment to cover gig workers, small business owners, and self-employed people, like me. I hadn't lost work at that point, but I truly felt a weight lifted, knowing I could tap into unemployment if I needed it. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/why-freelancing-is-more-stable-than-full-time-work-2020-4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Soon, I did</a>. The state lets people who are still working, but at reduced capacity, collect unemployment. With my income down by half some weeks, I knew it was time to put in an application. After navigating the confusing and slow website, I got an automatic denial for my application, since I was self-employed. An announcement on the site told me all self-employment applications had to be manually reviewed. The process ended up taking about three weeks for me. Luckily, I still had some income trickling in during those weeks. I was able to pay bills and buy groceries. But when I saw how much I would be getting, I was shocked by how low it was. In New Hampshire, the maximum weekly unemployment payment is $427. That wouldn't cover the mortgage and groceries for my family of four, let alone our other bills. The federal unemployment from the CARES Act, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stimulus-package-unemployment-benefits-increase-2020-3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an additional $600 a week</a>, makes a huge difference, but it's very clear to me that it's time to re-evaluate our unemployment system for the long term. <h2>A loose grip on the middle class</h2>I <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/lessons-wish-id-learned-about-debt-from-my-dad" target="_blank" rel="noopener">grew up poor</a>. Over the past 10 years, my husband and I have worked very hard to improve our financial security. We have a lot of privilege and have made tons of progress, but oftentimes it still feels like we're teetering on the edge of breaking firmly into the middle class or continuing to live paycheck to paycheck. We're lucky that the small safety net programs that we're accessing are enough to keep us afloat right now. Five years ago, that wouldn't have been the case. When I was a kid, I would have qualified for free school lunch programs, but my mom never wanted us to be judged for being poor. Today, I push back on that mindset, telling all my friends about how great the district's free lunch program during the <keyword id="1754604" type="PERSON" weightage="60" keywordseo="coronavirus">coronavirus</keyword> is. If the pandemic has taught me anything, it's that there should be no shame in utilizing safety net systems. What is shameful is a country with a safety net that is frayed, cracked, and just too small to catch the people who need it.<ul class="read-more-links"><li>Read more on managing your money in this tumultuous time:</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/how-to-pay-mortgage-during-coronavirus-pandemic">3 options for people struggling to pay their mortgage during the global health crisis</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/who-needs-disability-insurance">4 reasons to get disability insurance, even if you don't think you need it </a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pause-bill-payments-if-you-lost-work-due-to-coronavirus">If you've been financially impacted by the coronavirus, you may be able to pause payments on these 8 bills</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-get-stimulus-check-coronavirus-crisis-2020-3">How to get a stimulus check from the US government, which could pay up to $1,200 if you qualify</a></li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/credit-card-companies-financial-assistance-coronavirus-2020-3">In response to the coronavirus, credit card issuers like Amex and Capital One are letting customers skip payments without interest and more</a></li></ul>Read the original article on <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/using-the-social-safety-net-for-first-time-in-life-2020-5">Business Insider</a>

I'm using the social safety net for the first time in my life, and the pandemic has shown me there should be no shame in accessing these programs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Joan Didion-style leaving-New York essays from early in the pandemic have morphed into a narrative that "<keyword id="72226" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="New-York-City">New York City</keyword> is dead," newly made famous by lightning-rod blogger James Altucher.</li><li>When they say this crisis will be the defining one for New York, critics like Altucher are probably referring to its last big crisis: The "Bad Old Days" of the 1970s, when New York was essentially broke and riddled with <keyword id="39494" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Crime">crime</keyword> and social problems.</li><li>The 1970s were also a cultural renaissance for the city, giving birth to punk rock and hip-hop, and witnessing the popularization of disco, among other still-iconic NYC cultural-reference points.</li><li>As bad as things are today, they still don't compare to the 1970s yet, but that doesn't mean leaders like Gov. Andrew Cuomo and Equinox Chairman Stephen Ross don't have good cause to be worried.</li><li>Altucher told Business Insider there are "two major differences" between now and the 1970s, when despite being broke the city actually had better prospects. But the '70s show that great culture can come from the toughest circumstances.</li></ul>New York City's dead, haven't you heard?For months now, the Joan Didion-style "<a href="https://www.academia.edu/34057378/Joan_Didion_Goodbye_to_All_That">Goodbye to all that</a>" leaving-NYC essay has come back into fashion, even including <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/left-new-york-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-wondering-about-return-2020-4">my own for Business Insider</a>. The most recent — which seems to have pissed a lot of people off, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/24/opinion/jerry-seinfeld-new-york-coronavirus.html?smid=tw-nytopinion&amp;smtyp=cur=cur">including Jerry Seinfeld</a> — came from <a href="https://nypost.com/2020/08/17/nyc-is-dead-forever-heres-why-james-altucher/">James Altucher, as republished in the New York Post</a>. "NYC is dead forever," Altucher's headline blares, before going on to essentially state the bear case for the city's economy, fitting given Altucher's background in hedge funds before moving into contrarian self-improvement <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Choose-Yourself-James-Altucher/dp/1490313370/ref=sr_1_3?dchild=1&amp;keywords=altucher&amp;qid=1598453334&amp;sr=8-34&amp;sr=8-3">books</a> and <a href="https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/stansberry-radio-network/the-james-altucher-show">podcasts</a>.Altucher told Business Insider that New York City "will always attract people looking for new opportunity and looking to mix with other creatives" but that because of its current challenges "opportunity will disperse to many second- and third-tier cities."The urge to declare New York dead is a strange phenomenon. The whole country is suffering right now: Congress <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-gop-fights-replacement-federal-unemployment-benefit-expire-jobless-boost-2020-7">failed to pass</a> a new stimulus against the backdrop of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-weekly-jobless-claims-insurance-filings-labor-market-unemployment-coronavirus-2020-8">double-digit unemployment</a>, schools and colleges are reopening only to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-unc-went-from-leading-college-reopening-to-shutting-down-in-a-week-2020-8">shut down again</a>, and onlookers are helpless before <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/will-buying-usps-merch-save-democracy-politics-fashion-trend-analysis-2020-8">mass interference with the Post Office</a> months before a probable mail-heavy election. Why, in the midst of all this, do some commentators insist that this pandemic is the thing that will kill one particular East Coast city?There's an undeniable historical precedent for New York's current challenges, as laid out by Altucher: The 1970s, when New York essentially went bankrupt and crime skyrocketed, summed up by the famous Daily News headline: "<a href="https://www.history.com/topics/us-states/ford-to-city-drop-dead-video">Ford to city: drop dead</a>." (In 1975, New York <a href="https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-night-new-york-saved-itself-from-bankruptcy">famously asked</a> then-President Gerald Ford for a federal bailout. He said no.) When pundits declare New York city dead, maybe they're repeating Ford's advice to the city from the last time it was faced with an apocalyptic fiscal crisis. In an echo to that, the city's MTA transit service, responsible for the subway system, is now saying it will have to make 40% cuts to train and bus service in 2021 without <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-26/new-york-mta-mulls-deep-cuts-to-subway-commuter-train-service?srnd=premium&amp;sref=BLKWHazcHazc">federal aid</a>.Something else interesting happened in the 1970s aside from New York's death: American society changed in ways that are only starting to be appreciated. The roots of today's <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/charts-why-inequality-is-a-major-american-political-issue">record inequality</a> and social divisions, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/charts-showing-most-vulnerable-workers-most-affected-by-coronavirus-recession-2020-8">exposed so starkly</a> by the coronavirus recession, can largely be traced back to the decade when its most important city went broke, asked for a rescue, and was left to fend for itself.<h2>The 1970s were America's secret turning point</h2><div type="image" title="nixon reagan" height="686" width="915" msid="77768234" hostid="261"></div>Since the '70s, real, adjusted-for-inflation wages have <a href="https://hbr.org/2017/10/why-wages-arent-growing-in-america#:~:text=Since%20the%20early%201970s%2C%20the,growth%20has%20almost%20completely%20stalled.">risen only by 0.2%</a> for the average American.This is a sign of how something in the economy shifted: Marc Levinson argues in "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Extraordinary-Time-Postwar-Ordinary-Economy/dp/0465061982">An Extraordinary Time</a>" that the decade marked <a href="https://aeon.co/essays/how-economic-boom-times-in-the-west-came-to-an-end">the end of the long postwar boom</a>, and politics and society have adjusted in response. "The shift came at the end of 1973. The quarter-century before then, starting about 1948, saw the most remarkable period of economic growth in human history," Levinson writes, before adding, that high <keyword id="6358907" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="unemployment">unemployment</keyword> and a deep recession in 1973 "changed everything," concluding that "a far more conservative age came with the economic changes, shaped by fears of failing and concerns that one's children might have it worse, not better."Other authors have supported Levinson's core thesis, notably Steven Brill arguing for a 50-year downward spiral in "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Tailspin-Americas-Fifty-Year-Fall-Fighting/dp/1524731633">Tailspin</a>," which argues that elites ascended the ladder of success and pulled it up after them, and more recently, Spy magazine cofounder Kurt Andersen argues in "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Evil-Geniuses-Unmaking-America-History/dp/1984801341">Evil Geniuses</a>" that he was a "useful idiot" himself in post-'70s New York, asleep to the transformative effects of how society was changing and inequality was widening. (Andersen also weighed in on Altucher's essay, <a href="https://inthesetimes.com/article/this-terrifying-economic-crisis-will-make-cities-better">telling The New York Times' Ginia Bellafante</a> that it was "foolish and shallow".)The business class of New York seems terrified of the 1970s scenario replaying, with billionaire Trump fundraiser and Equinox Chairman Stephen Ross teaming with a former Bloomberg deputy to find a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/billionaire-stephen-ross-to-raise-100-million-nyc-mayoral-race-2020-8">white-knight mayoral candidate</a> to secure New York's tenuous recovery. And with more tax revenue badly needed for the city and the state, <a href="https://gothamist.com/news/after-talking-all-day-long-rich-new-yorkers-hamptons-cuomo-says-he-cant-raise-their-taxes">Gov. Andrew Cuomo has said</a> he just can't raise taxes at this point, because he's scared of more money leaving New York.So when people say NYC is headed back to the '70s, they're not talking about either that city or that decade; they're talking about what role money should play in American culture and politics, and where this country could be headed for the next half-century. It's a loaded subject.Anecdotal evidence already suggests a return to those days, like <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/23/nyregion/nyc-subway-vandalism.html">The New York Times report</a> about broken subway-train windows, recalling the time of dilapidated graffiti-strewn trains, as captured in the classic "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Style-Wars-Henry-Chalfant/dp/B07FFG517L">Style Wars</a>" documentary.<h2>New York is already worse off than the '70s in some ways</h2><div type="image" title="GettyImages 518342401 (2)" height="680" width="906" msid="77768242" hostid="261"></div>The city's unemployment situation now is actually bleaker than the '70s, with the <a href="https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.t01.htm">June unemployment rate</a> for the metro area at 17%, versus a peak of <a href="https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/americanexperience/features/blackout-gallery/">about 12%</a> in mid-1975. Both are well above the <a href="https://www.osc.state.ny.us/sites/default/files/reports/documents/pdf/2019-08/report-1-2020.pdf">national averages</a> of their day. Things aren't nearly as bad at the city budget level, even though they're still terrible. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/new-york-city-faces-toughest-fiscal-crisis-since-the-1970s-11598205600?mod=pls_whats_news_us_business_f">The Wall Street Journal reported</a> that the city has a $9 billion <keyword id="6420764" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="deficit">deficit</keyword> over the next two years, an inexact comparison to 1975, when the entire city budget was $13 billion in 1975 dollars. (Adjusted for inflation, the 1975 budget would equal about $62.6 billion today; <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/office-of-the-mayor/news/218-19/fact-sheet-mayor-de-blasio-releases-executive-budget-fiscal-year-2020#/0">the NYC FY20 budget</a> was $92.5 billion.)Looking at potential layoffs tells more of the story. The Journal reported that the current deficit could lead to 22,000 NYC government workers being laid off — <a href="https://cbcny.org/research/growth-nyc-employee-headcount">about 6.7% of the total</a>. Further, <a href="https://ny.chalkbeat.org/2020/8/20/21376838/carranza-says-state-budget-cuts-threaten-9000-teacher-jobs-and-in-person-learning">Chalkbeat New York reported</a> that 9,000 city teachers could be laid off, which would torpedo plans to partially reopen schools this fall. In the '70s, per <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielcassady/2020/08/19/nyc-ems-workers-brace-for-layoffs-as-city-grapples-with-budget-crisis/#be15e8b7d2fb">reporting by Forbes</a>, city employment contracted by 45,000, or 20%, and <a href="https://www.uft.org/your-union/about-uft/our-history/back-brink-how-uft-saved-new-york-bankruptcy">14,000 teachers</a> were laid off as <a href="https://www.cityandstateny.com/articles/opinion/opinion/new-york-city-should-freeze-teacher-salaries.html">about 100 schools closed</a>.In response, another major player from the '70s crisis era is prepping for a comeback. The New York State Financial Control Board, created in '75 when the city was close to <keyword id="43550" type="EVENT" weightage="60" keywordseo="Bankruptcy">bankruptcy</keyword> to oversee the budget, received three new appointees from Cuomo earlier this summer, according to The Journal.State Budget Director Robert Mujica told the paper that Cuomo was concerned about the prospects for the city budget. "A lot of the same things that happened in 1975 are reoccurring," he said. The control board had "control power" from 1975 through 1986, when it shifted to the review role it currently has; the state legislature would have to approve another control period.<h2>Then there's the crime</h2><div type="image" title="Looted NYC storefront, 1977" height="683" width="910" msid="77768246" hostid="261"></div><a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/06/upshot/murders-rising-crime-coronavirus.html">The New York Times reported</a> last month that gun violence and murder rates were up this year, while also observing gun-related arrests are down and homicide rates are still near historic lows (the city is only back to its 2015 homicide totals). The data is a massive improvement from the '70s. In the decade from 1965 to 1975, <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2015/may/18/welcome-to-fear-city-the-inside-story-of-new-yorks-civil-war-40-years-on">the Guardian reported</a> that murders rose from 681 to 1,690, car thefts more than doubled, and burglaries more than tripled. The next year, 1976, was a record year for crime in the city, according to a <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/1977/03/05/archives/felonies-in-new-york-city-in-1976-up-132-worst-rate-on-record.html">1977 article</a> by New York Times metro reporter Selwyn Raab, (later the author of a <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Five-Families-Resurgence-Americas-Powerful/dp/1250101700">definitive history of the New York Mafia's five families</a>).The flight from New York also isn't as bad as the 1970s. The recent thousands who left the city during the pandemic pale in comparison to the demographic decline between 1970 and 1980, when <a href="https://www1.nyc.gov/assets/planning/download/pdf/planning-level/nyc-population/historical-population/nyc_total_pop_1900-2010.pdf">New York City's population</a> fell by about 10%. <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/15/upshot/who-left-new-york-coronavirus.html">The Times estimated</a> that about 5% of the city left between March 1 and May 1. Still, it's striking that New York seems to have gotten to half of that decade's population loss in just six months, although presumably a lot New Yorkers will return once a vaccine is available.In a comment to Business Insider, Altucher said the situation now was actually worse than the 1970s, for two reasons. Back then, the city never closed down and its position as the epicenter of media, fashion, finance never flagged; and the current technological advances mean that many of these industries can be 100% remote now, saying "the next generation of entrepreneurs and artists will move" to smaller cities as a result.People are "aware of" the problems that New York City faces, Altucher said, and are "not addressing [them] in hopes that 'grit' will save all." The fact is, he went on, "there are real issues now and just shooting the messenger won't solve them." He said the city "needs a massive bailout, plus smart thinking about incentives."<h2>The culture that emerged from 1970s New York defined the city for decades afterward — and much of it from the bottom up</h2><div type="image" title="The exterior of CBGB's during a 2005 press conference, when its future as a music club was in doubt." height="1992" width="2657" msid="77768249" hostid="261"></div>If Altucher is right and New York City approaches or even exceeds its 1970s nadir, that would be painful in many ways but perhaps not an altogether bad thing. <a href="https://inthesetimes.com/article/this-terrifying-economic-crisis-will-make-cities-better">In These Times' Hamilton Nolan</a> has argued that "cities are not theme parks for the rich" and they can be "reborn for the better" through a change in their current gilded economic status.Others have been openly fantasizing about a return to the 1970s. Five years ago, when the notion of a global pandemic seemed as unlikely as the election of President Donald Trump, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/10/t-magazine/1970s-new-york-history.html">The New York Times' Edmund White reported</a> on "an intense yearning for a specific five-year period" from about 1977 to 1982, when New York was an edgy but vibrant cultural capital, as opposed to the fortress of finance it was in the late Obama years. Patti Smith's romantic memoir "<a href="https://www.amazon.com/Just-Kids-Patti-Smith/dp/0060936223">Just Kids</a>" may have kicked off the craze in 2010, recalling a gritty city where legendary careers were born, including her own and that of her former partner, the late photographer Robert Mapplethorpe.Like many children of the '80s, I grew up in the cultural shadow of that New York that was decades in the past. I grew up listening to music that largely referenced the punk rock invented on the lower east side in 1977's "<a href="https://www.spin.com/2007/09/1977-year-punk-exploded/">summer of punk</a>," sometimes while reading Marvel comic books set in an alternate New York where hundreds of superheroes lived in the city, yet there was always more crime to fight. In music, that era in the city also gave rise to <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vintage-photos-of-the-glory-days-of-studio-54-2017-4">disco</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vintage-photos-from-the-dawn-of-hip-hop-2015-3">hip-hop</a>, which formed the DNA of modern pop music.Much of this culture was a byproduct of the city's dire economic situation. "Bottom up" forms like do-it-yourself punk or inexpensive comic books thrived when New York City was at its lowest because they didn't require a lot of capital to produce. These forms had long-lasting and wide-ranging influence — in evidence from high-end designer John Varvatos converting the old punk club <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/cbgb-music-club-nyc-2011-6">CBGB's into a boutique shop</a> and superheroes literally becoming the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-most-significant-superhero-movies-of-the-2010s-list-2019-11">most popular and successful film genre</a> of the last decade. Film can't escape the influence of these years, as shown by 2019's "<a href="https://www.insider.com/everything-you-missed-in-the-final-joker-trailer-2019-8?fbclid=IwAR0IbWCnjN-vGley41BJD2Enh1hkEjBn2uOY6r4E-TOGe5ZKaiY7KoNvfbY">Joker</a>," set in late 1970s New York and including many direct homages to films of that period, especially Martin Scorsese's "Taxi Driver" and "The King of Comedy."New York going back to the 1970s, at least spiritually if not financially, just may breathe a lot of life back into it. The National, one of the bands that came out of the '70s-referencing wave of New York bands in the early 2000s, have a lyric that goes: <a href="https://genius.com/12859585">"New York is shedding its skin again; it dies every 10 years, and then it begins again."</a> The pandemic is most certainly remaking the balance of urban, suburban, and rural America, and New York, in some moneyed way, is going through some kind of death. Still, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-negotiating-expand-manhattan-office-at-11-penn-plaza-2020-8">Apple</a> and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-adds-jobs-new-office-hub-locations-2020-8">Amazon</a> are two of the corporate giants placing long bets on Manhattan office space. But we may also be seeing a rebirth.

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