<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>The University of Michigan will publish preliminary results of its March survey of consumers at 10 a.m. ET. Economists forecast that the consumer sentiment index increased to 97 from 96.3 in the final February reading, according to Bloomberg. This measure of consumer confidence and others have jumped since the November election. And although they are a gauge of how Americans feel about the new administration, the details show that opinions are more divided than ever. The survey from UMich showed that while Republicans expected robust economic growth, Democrats predicted a recession. Since economists expect neither extreme this year, the likely outcome is somewhere in the middle, according to UMich.Last month's report showed the <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/university-of-michigan-consumer-confidence-sentiment-february-2017-2017-2-1001781691-1001781691">first decline in the headline index</a> since the election, suggesting that what UMich called a honeymoon phase with President Donald Trump's administration may be nearing its end until some policies start getting implemented.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/university-of-michigan-consumer-confidence-march-17-2017-2017-3">More to come ... </a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/7-mega-billionaires-who-made-a-fortune-last-year-2017-3">7 mega-billionaires who made a fortune last year</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="txZTM5YTE64gA4GFRYvPGavZ6kzc9laH" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

Here comes consumer confidence ...

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Gregory Shamus/Getty ImagesThe Michigan Wolverines</div></div></div>The University of Michigan will at 10 a.m. ET release its final reading on consumer confidence during February.The spike in confidence has been one of the biggest economic stories since President Donald Trump won the election. Economists forecast that confidence improved again February; the sentiment index is expected at 96, up from a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-michigan-consumer-confidence-sentiment-february-10-2017-2017-2">preliminary reading</a> of 95.7, which marked the first dip since the election.Other surveys of consumer and business confidence have shown that Trump's promises of tax reform and deregulation resonated strongly with many Americans. However, what UMich's survey also exposed was a vast partisan divide. Democrats' expectations for the economy fell to a historic low in the most recent survey, while Republicans' expectations jumped towards a historic high. They survey's economists have cautioned that confidence could ease in the month's ahead, as consumers may be experiencing the honeymoon phase of Trump's presidency. They would need to see concrete results out of Washington and improvement in their personal finances to remain this optimistic about the future. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/university-of-michigan-consumer-confidence-sentiment-february-2017-2017-2">More to come ...</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/best-worst-place-raise-family-city-states-cities-live-2017-2">Animated map shows the best and worst states to raise your family</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="83NWZlOTE62q0tRgp5aUgHFP4ziFKtGd" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div></div></div>The University of Michigan's preliminary reading on September consumer confidence is set for release at 9:55 am ET. 
Expectations are for the reading to come in at 83.5, up from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/u-michigan-consumer-confidence-2014-8">82.5 in August's final reading</a>. That number soundly beat expectations. 
The UMich consumer sentiment survey comes after the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/august-retail-sales-september-12-2014-9">latest report on retail sales</a> showed sales jumped 0.6% in August, while July's figure was also revised upwards. 
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-consumer-sentiment-september-12-2014-9">We'll be back with the live number when it hits</a>.

Here Comes University Of Michigan Consumer Confidence...

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Global shares wavered as investors mulled the chances of a supersized rate hike from the Federal Reserve.</li><li>Consumer spending data later could give a read on how resilient economic activity is.</li></ul>Global shares sagged on Friday, weighed down by the prospect that the Federal Reserve could raise rates by the most in over 30 years to counter surging <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword>, while a downbeat read of the Chinese economy and gloomy earnings added to the pressure on investor sentiment.<keyword id="11893878" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="stocks" source="Orion">Stocks</keyword> have been battered this week by mounting evidence that inflation could damage global growth, prompting central banks to deliver supersized rate hikes to quell price pressures. China's zero-COVID policy, which has added to the pessimism, led to annual economic growth of just 0.4% year-on-year in the second quarter of this year, missing market expectations for a rise of 1.0%, and down from 4.8% growth in the first quarter.<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/fuures/dow-futures">Dow Jones</a> and <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100</a> futures edged up around 0.2% in European trading, while the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/stoxx_europe_600">MSCI All World Index</a> eased 0.1%, heading for a 3.2% fall this week. In Europe, the <keyword id="12489913" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="stoxx-600" source="Orion">Stoxx 600</keyword> traded up 0.85%, but was on course to post a 7% drop on the week, while the <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/.MIAPJ0000PUS">MSCI Asia ex-Japan index</a> fell 0.9%, weighed down by losses in Chinese blue chips after Friday's dismal GDP figures.The <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index">dollar</a>, which has hit new 20-year highs against a basket of major currencies this month, was set for its third consecutive weekly gain, fueled by a mixture of safe-haven buying as investors fret about the prospect of recession and an expectation for juicier returns on US assets as the Fed ramps up rates.In earnings, JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley kicked off results season on a glum note. Both banks missed estimates for the first time since 2020 in a sign the bumper gains from pandemic-era market activity may be drying up, and the drag of a strong <keyword id="11931694" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="dollar" source="Orion">dollar</keyword> is making itself felt."Even though the US is a more domestic focused economy and stock market, the costs of dollar strength are clear. S&amp;P 500 index earnings are being cut around 5% by current dollar strength, led by the hard-hit tech sector which generates over 60% of its sales abroad," Ben Laidler, eToro global <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword> strategist, said.Wells Fargo and Citigroup report on Friday, while Bank of America and Goldman Sachs are due next week.Data on Friday will offer a key litmus test of how the consumer is holding up in an environment where inflation is running at 41-year highs and mortgage rates have soared to their highest since 2008. Retail sales data for June is expected to show consumer spending rose by 0.9%, a reversal from May's 0.3% contraction, according to data from Bloomberg, while a read on sentiment is expected to show consumer confidence hitting another record low in early July. With inflation running at 9.1%, investors are attaching a growing chance that the Fed could raise rates by as much as a full percentage point when it meets later this month — something that hasn't happened since late 1989. Interest rate futures show a near-50% chance of such an increase, a possibility that was negligible prior to Wednesday's consumer inflation reading for June."Just as the June UMich consumer inflation survey spooked the Fed into a 75bps hike last month, traders are betting that yesterday's 9.1% CPI print will spook the Fed into another, even more supersized hike this month. Right now, that seems like a decent bet," Michael Brown, chief strategist at Caxton FX, said.Meanwhile, oil hovered below $100 a barrel, having lost 7.6% in value this week, in its fifth straight weekly decline — its longest losing streak this year. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude futures</a> were last down 0.2% at $99.16 a barrel, while <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude</a> was down 0.3% at $95.47 a barrel. Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bitcoin-price-at-critical-juncture-as-celsius-files-for-bankruptcy-2022-7?r=US&amp;IR=T">As Celsius files for bankruptcy and the Three Arrows unwind begins, bitcoin and the whole crypto market is at a critical juncture. 2 experts weigh-in on what's next - and reveal a key chart to watch for clues.</a>

Global shares struggle as investors weigh up chances of a mega Fed rate hike and downbeat earnings

Thomson ReutersUS President Donald Trump.One of biggest debates about the post-election economy has centered on the divergence of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/fed-minutes-on-hard-data-versus-soft-data-2017-4">"hard data and soft data,"</a> and in his annual letter to shareholders, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink shared an interesting view on the debate."Hard data" refers to concrete improvements in the economy, such as a firm hiring more people or an increase in average wages. Meanwhile, "soft data" refers more to Americans' sentiments and beliefs about the direction of the economy.Since US President Donald Trump's election, a bunch of sentiment indicators have shot up: for example, <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nfib-small-business-optimism-december-2017-1">small business owners</a> are feeling optimistic and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-consumer-confidence-government-good-for-business-2017-3">consumers</a> now think the government is great for business.But at the same time, we have not seen the hard data <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-jobs-report-march-2017-4">match</a> the improving sentiment yet. Moreover, Trump's pro-business tax cuts and deregulation agenda have not yet gone into effect, meaning that some of the benefits that firms are anticipating might not actually happen.However, it is interesting to note that at least some soft data indicators appear to be correlated with stock market performance.In his <a href="https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/en-us/investor-relations/larry-fink-chairmans-letter">annual letter to shareholders</a>, BlackRock Chairman and CEO Larry Fink shared the below chart, which tracks the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index (left hand side) versus the S&amp;P 500 (right hand side) from 2007 to 2017. As you can see below, the two track pretty closely over the last decade.<a href="https://www.blackrock.com/corporate/en-us/investor-relations/larry-fink-chairmans-letter">BlackRock/Larry Fink</a>"At a conference earlier this year, I saw a chart showing the correlation between the S&amp;P 500 Index and the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index. The image was eye-popping," he wrote in the letter."The two indices moved in lock-step with one another: when the market was at its depths, consumer sentiment was just as low - and when the market was at its highest, consumer sentiment tracked to its peak, illustrating the short-term and pro-cyclical thought process that so many individuals have around the markets."As for the post-election environment, although hard data have been somewhat <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-rosenberg-on-data-trump-economy-2017-3">fuzzy</a>, it's notable that consumer confidence and stocks have <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/closing-bell-march-1-2017-2017-3-1001796606">both shot up</a>, which you can also see in the chart.Still, given that the last decade was somewhat unique due to both the global financial crisis and the unexpected election of Trump, we decided to see if the correlation held up over a longer time horizon.We put together a chart of the UMich consumer sentiment index versus the S&amp;P 500 from 1990 to today, which you can see below.Andy Kiersz/Business InsiderNotably, the two lines do more or less move up and down at the same times. However, it's also interesting that consumer sentiment today is roughly at the same level as it was in the 1990s and early 2000s.Of course, it's important to point out that these two charts are showing a correlation, not a causation. In other words, the data don't prove that falling or rising stocks caused consumers to respectively feel negative or optimistic, or vice versa. <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/neighbor-wifi-interference-change-channel-2017-3">Your neighbor's WiFi is ruining yours - here's how to fix it</a></h3> Please enable Javascript to watch this video

Here's the 'eye-popping' chart BlackRock CEO Larry Fink shared in his annual letter

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Goran Tomasevic/ReutersA leopard climbs a tree in Maasai Mara National Reserve, Kenya September 17, 2016.</div></div></div>Stocks opened higher on Friday, and then picked up greater speed after <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/deutsche-bank-near-5-4-bn-us-toxic-152407547.html">AFP reported</a> that Deutsche Bank is near a $5.4 billion settlement with the US government over mortgage-backed securities.Ultimately, all major indices finished in the green.The troubled German lender has been investors' biggest worry after earlier reports that the bank would be slapped with a $14 billion fine over an investigation into the sale of bad derivative products from the financial crisis.First up, the scoreboard:<ul><li>Dow: 18,354.87, +211.42, (+1.17%)</li><li>S&amp;P 500: 2,174.11, +22.95, (+1.07%)</li><li>Nasdaq: 5,324.32, +55.15, (+1.05%)</li><li>WTI Crude: $48.09, +$0.25, (+0.52%)</li><li>1o-year yield: 1.594%, +0.038</li></ul><ol><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-share-price-september-30-2016-2016-9">Deutsche Bank is close to a $5.4 billion settlement with the US government</a>, according to the Agence France-Presse - a sum that's much lower than the $14 billion settlement reported two weeks earlier. Shares of the German lender skyrocketed by over 15% around 2:05 p.m. ET to $13.21 a share.</li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/baker-hughes-rig-count-september-30-2016-9">The oil rig count is still on a massive streak</a>. The count of active oil rigs in the US rose by seven to 425 this week and the gas rig count increased by four to 96, according to oilfield-services giant Baker Hughes.</li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chicago-pmi-september-2016-2016-9">Chicago PMI rose more than expected</a>. The Institute of Supply Management and MNI Indicators reported that their purchasing manager's index came in at 54.2, up from 51.5 in August, and above analysts' forecasts of 52.</li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/personal-income-and-spending-august-2016-2016-9">Personal income rose 0.2% in August, while spending was flat</a>, according to the Department of Commerce. The data reflect a slowdown from a relatively strong July.</li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-consumer-sentiment-index-september-30-2016-2016-9">UMich consumer sentiment picked up in September</a>. However, "confidence edged upward in September due to gains among higher income households, while the Sentiment Index among households with incomes under $75,000 has remained at exactly the same level for the third consecutive month," Richard Curtin, the Surveys of Consumers chief economist, wrote in the report. </li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/canada-gdp-report-and-canadian-dollar-2016-9">Canada's GDP beat</a>. Its economy grew by 0.5% month-over-month in July, above economists' expectations of 0.3%. The loonie ticked up in the aftermath.</li></ol>Additionally:<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/why-janet-yellen-could-resign-if-trump-wins-2016-9">Here's why Janet Yellen might quit if Donald Trump wins</a>.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman-sachs-and-credit-suisse-notes-on-deutsche-bank-share-crash-2016-9">Goldman Sachs on Deutsche Bank: It's not as bad as you think</a>.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/deutsche-bank-fundamental-business-problem-beyond-immediate-crisis-2016-9">Meanwhile, an analyst at JP Morgan thinks the German lender has a "fundamental business problem."</a><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/angela-merkel-and-deutsche-bank-bailout-2016-9">Bailing out Deutsche Bank would be a terrible decision for Angela Merkel</a>.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/what-happens-during-an-ipo-on-nyse-2016-9">A behind-the-scenes look at what actually goes on during an IPO at the NYSE</a>.<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ian-bremmer-paper-on-world-after-g-zero-2016-9">Ian Bremmer argues that "politics as we knew it is over."</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/economist-joseph-stiglitz-on-deficit-fetishism-2016-9">STIGLITZ: It makes me crazy that everyone gets this wrong about the economy</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="81aWF1NTE65bqRFEoODRwpzZUj5lBxQM" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

STOCKS RISE: Here's what you need to know

The US economy is growing.
And that growth is being fueled by one key source: the American consumer.
Tuesday dump of economic data featured a stronger-than-expected <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-q3-revision-2014-12">Q3 GDP revision</a>, but also weaker-than-expected <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/new-home-sales-data-november-2014-2014-12">new home sales</a> and <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/durable-goods-november-2014-2014-12">durable goods reports</a>.
However, economists agree that consternation about those disappointing reports should be more than offset by the strength in consumer sentiment and personal spending.
Americans are spending. And that consumption <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/schwab-oil-plunge-is-positive-for-us-economy-stocks-2014-12">represents almost 70% of the economy</a>.
"This is literally shoot the lights out sort of stuff, and no smoke and mirrors and it is powered by the U.S. consumer with their spending,"&#xa0;wrote Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi's Chris Rupkey after the GDP report.
Here are three stats from today's data dump reflecting this theme:
<ol>
<li>
UMich's consumer sentiment index is at the highest level since January 2007 (!)&#xa0;The&#xa0;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/u-mich-consumer-confidence-2014-12">University of Michigan</a>'s report showed that consumer sentiment index climbed to&#xa0;93.6&#xa0;in December, from 88.8 in November. "Improved income expectations should bolster big-ticket consumer purchases in the fourth quarter, and we continue to look for stronger consumer spending growth to support GDP growth in Q4," Barclays' Jesse Hurwitz said.</li>
<li>
Personal consumer spending was revised up.&#xa0;In Tuesday's&#xa0;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-q3-revision-2014-12">GDP report</a>, there was also a significant revision for personal consumption growth - up to&#xa0;3.2%&#xa0;from 2.2%. Americans are "back to spending as much as they did in the housing bubble economy years," Rupkey said.</li>
<li>
Personal spending was revised up.&#xa0;<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/income-and-spending-nov-2014-2014-12#ixzz3MjebYS8w">Personal spending</a> grew by&#xa0;0.6%, which was a bit stronger than the 0.5% expected. "A 0.7% m/m leap in US real personal spending in November suggests that a further acceleration in consumption growth in the fourth quarter will compensate for a likely stagnation in business investment in equipment," Capital Economics Paul Dales said. "The upshot is that it is now possible that GDP growth in the fourth quarter will be even stronger than our current 3.0% forecast."</li>
</ol>
"The suite of consumer sentiment, income, spending and prices suggest that Q4 spending will be solid," BNP Paribas' Bricklin Dwyer said.
"The economy is heating up," Rupkey said. "Right now, even if consumers buy not a dime more in December, real consumer spending will be 4.2% even better than the 3.2% growth rate in the third quarter, the surprise upward revision of 1 percentage point we got at 8:30 this morning."
And there's little doubt that <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-income-bracket-savings-cheaper-oil-2014-12">consumers</a> really <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/low-oil-prices-are-good-for-low-income-americans-2014-11">are benefiting</a> from lower gas prices.
"Gasoline prices have been dropping so is this boosting consumption? Heck yes, it is going straight up," Rupkey said.
<a title_source="Barclays, University of Michigan/Haver Analytics" title_caption="" class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/549991ad6da811e455e2355e-960/screen%20shot%202014-12-23%20at%2010.57.39%20am.png"></a>Barclays, University of Michigan/Haver Analytics

One Awesome Economic Story Was Confirmed Consistently Across Today's Mess Of Economic Data

<div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image">Reuters/Desmond Boylan</div></div>Good morning!
Today could be a busy Friday. 
There's quite a bit of economic data coming out, but furthermore there's growing tension in Ukraine, as a Ukrainian minister has accused Russia of <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-minister-accuses-russia-of-armed-invasion-2014-2">staging an armed intervention in Crimea</a>. This will rattle some nerves, for sure.
US futures are in the red, as are various stock markets across Europe. It's nothing too huge, just broadbased.
The other big event of the day <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/chinese-yuans-largest-drop-against-usd-since-2005-2014-2">is the record drop for the Chinese yuan</a>, the biggest one-day fall since 2005.
Later today we get UMich Consumer Sentiment, GDP, and Chicago PMI.

Markets Are Red

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Pilar Olivares</div></div></div>Good morning! Here's what you need to know.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/wsj-us-10-billion-penalty-bnp-paribas-sanctions-2014-5">U.S. seeks $10 billion penalty from BNP Paribas</a>. The U.S. Justice Department is looking for over $10 billion from the French bank to settle federal and state allegations that it evaded U.S. sanctions on Iran and other countries for years, according to Reuters. This could be the largest criminal penalty in the U.S., <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-29/u-s-said-to-seek-more-than-10-billion-penalty-from-bnp.html">bigger than BP's</a> $4 billion settlement.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-japan-april-core-cpi-rises-to-23-year-high-after-sales-tax-hike-2014-29">Japanese inflation rises</a>. Core consumer prices in Japan climbed at the quickest pace since February 1991. CPI was up 3.2% year-over-year in April, compared with a 1.3% rise in March. The rise in national sales tax is expected to have contributed to the price gain.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-siemens-to-eliminate-11600-positions-bloomberg-2014-29">Siemens announces massive job cus</a>. German company Siemens will see 11,600 jobs affected by a restructuring. CEO Joe Kaeser announced the plan earlier in May. "For now, Mr Kaeser has only said how many positions are affected by the organizational restructuring," spokesman Alexander Becker said in an email to Reuters. "But removing jobs in one area does not necessarily have to mean job cuts."
<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-29/u-k-house-prices-rise-as-consumer-optimism-improves.html">UK home prices and consumer confidence</a>. UK home prices climbed 0.5% in England and Wales, according to Hometrack Ltd, compared with a 0.6% rise the previous month. Meanwhile, consumer sentiment climbed to a nine-year high of 0, from -3 the previous month, according to GfK NOP.
<a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/google-committee-of-experts-to-deal-with-right-to-be-forgotten-1401426748?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection">Google offers Europeans 'Right to be Forgotten.'</a> Google unveiled a site on Friday that lets European residents list web addresses that they want removed from search results involving their name. This comes after a European court ruled that residents can ask to have information that infringes on their right to privacy or information that is irrelevant removed from the internet.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/steve-ballmer-buys-la-clippers-for-2-billion-2014-5">Steve Ballmer buys LA Clippers</a>. Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer has won the bidding for the Los Angeles Clippers for $2 billion. This comes after former owner Donald Sterling was banned from the NBA for life.
<a href="http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/05/29/uk-scotland-independence-campaign-idUKKBN0E92F620140529">Formal campaign for Scottish independence begins</a>. The countdown has started for Scottish secession from the United Kingdom, according to Reuters. Polls however currently show that Scots are unlikely to vote for such a move.
Personal income and Outlays. At 8:30 a.m. ET we get personal income and outlays for April. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for personal income to rise 0.3% month-over-month, compared to a 0.5% rise in March. Consumer spending is expected to rise 0.2% on the month, compared to a 0.9% rise MoM rise in March.
Chicago PMI and consumer sentiment. At 9:45 a.m. ET we get Chicago PMI for May. Economists polled by Bloomberg are looking for Chicago PMI's business barometer index to fall to 61, from 63. Meanwhile, the UMich consumer sentiment is out at 9:55 a.m. ET and is expected to tick up to 82.5 in May, from 81.8 the previous month.
<a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/markets-may-30-2014-2014-5">Markets</a>. Asian markets were mostly lower in overnight trading, with the Nikkei down 0.3% and the Jakarta Composite down 1.8%. Europe is mostly flat and U.S. futures are modestly lower.

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">REUTERS/Ralph OrlowskiFigures for the table soccer game "Tipp Kick" are pictured at the manufacturing site of Edwin Mieg Ohg in Villingen-Schwenningen, near Freiburg, June 12, 2014. </div></div></div>
Good morning! Here's what you need to know.
Iraq Is Splintering. Sunni insurgents continue to seize towns across Iraq, "splintering the country into hostile fiefs," <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2014/06/14/world/middleeast/iraq.html?hp">the New York Times reports</a>. In response, Western-friendly Kurds seized the key oil city of Kirkuk. There remain unconfirmed reports Iran has sent in Revolutionary Guard troops to defend Iraq's Shia government. Brent crude prices already surged 3% yesterday, and early this morning briefly hit close to $115, a nine-month high. They've since come down a bit. The IEA issued a statement saying supplies <a href="http://www.iea.org/newsroomandevents/news/2014/june/iea-releases-oil-market-report-for-june.html">are not yet in danger</a>.
BOE Rate Hike. Bank of England Chair Mark Carney said in a speech yesterday a rate increase "could happen sooner than markets currently expect." "Growth has been much stronger and unemployment has fallen much faster than either we or anyone else expected," he said. The pound climbed 0.2% against the dollar.
Fed Follows Suit? In a note to clients, Citi's Steven Englander <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/mark-carneys-warning-2014-6#ixzz34VuRFJwj">said</a> there's a decent chance Carney's comments get picked up and recapitulated by the Fed. "[It is] possible that the shift in the BoE stance may also be affecting how investors are viewing the likely evolution of Fed monetary policy. The worry may be that just as UK forward guidance proved to be less guiding than investors had earlier thought, the Fed may turn around, and use the same language as Governor Carney in shifting the timing of policy moves."
Treasuries. The treasury market yield curve approached its flattest level in five years as investors took this subtle shift toward hawkishness, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-06-13/treasury-yield-curve-flattens-as-bonds-advance-on-iraq-unrest.html">Bloomberg said</a>. The difference between five- and 30-year yields fell toward the narrowest since 2009 as the yield on the five-year note ticked up a basis point, while they fell on the 30-year note on continued signs of unevenness in the recovery. 
China Stabilizing. May industrial production and retail sales both climbed, 10 and 60 basis points respectively.
Intel Surges. Intel shares are up more than 5% this morning after the chip developer <a href="http://www.marketwatch.com/story/intel-lifts-sales-outlook-on-business-pc-demand-2014-06-12">lifted its sales outlook</a> on business PC demand. 
Hedge Funds Miss Rally. The Wall Street Journal <a href="http://online.wsj.com/articles/hedge-funds-get-stung-by-slow-markets-1402613770?mod=WSJ_hpp_LEFTTopStories">reports</a> major hedge funds are down 5% this year, as bets on volatility soured in one of the most complacent market stretches in years. 
Eurobond Sales...Where? As the European Central Bank takes unprecedented measures to ease monetary policy, the cost of borrowing in Euros has sunk, as has the price of swapping euro proceeds into other currencies. So places like Indonesia, South Korea and Brazil are now all starting to issue bonds in Euros, <a href="http://on.ft.com/1itjOD1">the FT says</a>. 
Data. At 8:30 we get produce prices. Expectations are for a gain of 0.1%. And just before 10 a.m. we get UMich/Reuters consumer sentiment. Consensus is for a reading of 83. 
Markets. Iraq instability sent European stocks lower. Asian indices held on. U.S. futures were lower.

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image">REUTERS/Baz RatnerA woman bandages the head of a pro-Russian activist injured outside the Mariupol town hall, East Ukraine April 24, 2014.</div></div></div>Good morning! Here's what you need to know.
Russia Downgraded. S&amp;P <a href="%20http://www.businessinsider.com/russia-downgrade-2014-4#ixzz2ztH458vu">downgraded</a> Russian debt to BBB- - one not above junk - from BBB. "In our view, the large capital outflows from Russia in the first quarter of 2014 heighten the risk of a marked deterioration in external financing, either through a significant shift in foreign direct investments or portfolio equity investments," the agency said. "We see this as a risk to Russia's economic growth prospects."
Rate Raised. Russia's Central Bank <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/russia-raises-main-rate-as-ukraine-crisis-weighs-on-ruble.html">raised</a> the country's main interest rate to 7.5% from 7% "amid increased inflation risks as mounting tensions over Ukraine and the threat of sanctions squeeze the economy and weaken the ruble," Bloomberg said. 
'World War III'. Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/25/us-ukraine-crisis-yatseniuk-idUSBREA3O0MU20140425">said Friday</a> that Russia wanted to start "World War Three" by occupying Ukraine "militarily and politically" and creating a conflict that would spread to the rest of Europe. "The world has not yet forgotten World War Two, but Russia already wants to start World War Three," Yatseniuk told the interim cabinet in remarks broadcast live. "Attempts at military conflict in Ukraine will lead to a military conflict in Europe."
U.S. Mortgage Demand Plummets. Originations fell to a 14-year low of $235 billion in Q1, down 58% YOY and 23% from Q4. "...Homeowners pulled back sharply from refinancing and house hunters showed little appetite for new loans, the latest sign of how rising interest rates have dented the housing recovery," <a href="http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702304788404579522051733228402?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection&amp;mg=reno64-wsj">the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos said</a>.
Thursday U.S. Earnings Moves. Visa was down 4.5% after-hours after the company reported single-digit revenue growth percentage for the first time in more than four years on a strong U.S. dollar. They also warned on Russia's move to open its own credit card network, <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/24/us-visa-results-idUSBREA3N21O20140424">Reuters said</a>. Starbucks and Microsoft are up more than 1%, with the former raising its 2014 forecast and the latter posting strong net income growth. Amazon was off more than 1%. The company reported expenses had increased 23%.
French Power Sale. The board of French conglomerate Alstom will meet today to discuss a proposal to sell its power plants to GE. "The transaction would give GE control of Alstom's technology for power transmission and power plant maintenance as Europe's economy starts to revive," Bloomberg said. "It would be a rare example of a major French company being taken over by a U.S. rival." 
U.K. Retail Sales. Receipts unexpectedly <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-25/u-k-retail-sales-unexpectedly-rise-as-growth-gains-momentum-1-.html">jumped</a> 0.1% in March as spending on clothing climbed. Analysts were expecting a pullback of 0.4%.
Data. At 9:45 we get a flash PMI Services reading from Markit. Consensus is for a reading of 56.2 from 55.5 prior. Ten minutes later we get UMich/Reuters consumer sentiment for April, expected to be basically unchanged at 82.5. 
Earnings. Burger King, Ford, Hyundai and Samsung all report.
Markets. Stocks and futures are down across the board, while German bunds and fixed-income rallied on a flight to quality over concerns in Ukraine.

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image">Deutsche Bank</div></div></div>Earnings season is here. On Monday, the aluminum giant Alcoa will announce its first-quarter results and once again kick off the busiest few weeks of reporting from Wall Street.Analysts are expecting a third straight quarter of negative earnings growth. But some think the first quarter was the bottom in earnings declines. We'll start to find out this week."Given what we expect to unfold in the form of growth stagnation in the first quarter when the Q1 GDP is reported at month's end, investors will be closely watching this week's set of economic indicators for clues as to whether the American consumer-the pillar of support for the current economic expansion-remains on steady footing or has begun to show some signs of cracking," Wells Fargo's Sam Bullard said in a note.<h2>Top Stories </h2><ul><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/q1-earnings-preview-2016-4">Q1 earnings on deck:</a> "Analysts expect a third consecutive quarter of negative earnings growth (-9% YoY) that is expected to mark the trough as the macro headwinds abate in subsequent quarters - particularly from the stronger dollar and lower oil prices," wrote Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Savita Subramanian in her preview. The energy sector - still reeling from the commodities crash - is projected to report the biggest earnings decline. Analysts will also be watching the big banks, where a dearth of initial public offerings and dealmaking this year due to market volatility has shrunk revenues. Another important thing analysts will be looking out for is whether the drag from the strong dollar on corporate earnings will persist through the second quarter. Because the dollar's rally has slowed, "multinationals are seeing better estimate revision trends than purely domestic stocks for the first time since 2014, as well as better guidance trends," Subramanian said. "These stocks have outperformed the market by over 4ppt since the mid-February reversal, but after underperforming by nearly 35% over the past five years, there may be room for a bit of catch-up this earnings season."</li><li>Did the economy just shrink? Most economists don't say so, but think it was a close call. The release of weak wholesale inventories data for February and a downward revision to January on Friday had some experts cutting their forecasts for economic growth in the first quarter. Because the sales-to-inventories ratio has surged in prior months, there's concern that falling inventories or sluggish sales could act as a drag to GDP growth. Notably, the Atlanta Fed, which nailed the Q1 2015 print, cut its estimate to 0.1% from 0.4%. Also, there were revisions from Goldman (0.9% from 1.2%), JP Morgan (to 0.2%) and Barclays (0.3% from 0.4%.) Of course, the advance GDP print due April 28 will be revised two more times.</li><li>Oil producers meet: On April 17, OPEC and non-OPEC members are expected to meet in Doha to discuss a possible agreement to cut output. According to a statement from Qatar's energy minister, 15 OPEC and non-OPEC producers are in support of the plan, and they represent more than two-thirds of global oil output, according to <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil-opec-talks-date-idUSKCN0WI11E">Reuters</a>. RBC's Helima Croft notes that Saudi Arabia has shown confidence in its ability to withstand low oil prices. However, this is at odds with its traditional allies. The UAE, Kuwait and Qatar have all spoken in support of an agreement. But Iran is against it until its output hits 4 million barrels per day, as it beefs up exports after years of economic sanctions.</li></ul><h2>Economic Data</h2><ul><li>NFIB Small Business Optimism (Tues.): Economists estimate that the index of optimism rose to 93.9 in March from a two-year low of 92.9 in the prior month. The February survey showed that expectations for economic and earnings growth tumbled. </li><li>Producer Price Index (PPI) (Wed.): Economists estimate that the gauge of wholesale prices producers paid in March rose 0.3% month-on-month and year-on-year. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, they forecast that core PPI rose 0.1% month-on-month and 1.3% year-on-year. "Energy prices and food prices rose on the month, which should provide a modest boost to headline PPI," Barclays wrote. </li><li>Retail Sales (Wed.): Economists estimate that retail sales rose 0.1% month-on-month. Core retail sales are expected at 0.4%. Here's Wells Fargo: "For March, we project that the nearly 12% rebound in retail gasoline prices over the February average should provide some lift to headline sales. That said, the substantial drop in <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-auto-sales-march-2016-2016-4">motor vehicle sales</a> last month (down to a 16.46 million unit annualized pace from 17.43 million in February) should limit the gain in headline sales."</li><li>Beige Book (Wed.): The latest collection of anecdotes on the economy from the Federal Reserve's 12 districts will be released. It's prepared ahead of the FOMC meeting on April 26 and 27. </li><li>Consumer Price Index (CPI) (Thurs.): Economists forecast that the index rose 0.2% month-on-month, and 1.2% year-on-year. Core CPI is expected at 0.2% month-on-month, and 0.3% year-on-year. "While the CPI is a top-tier indicator for the financial markets, the near-term data may be somewhat less relevant given Chair Yellen's recent emphasis on the broader global economy," Deutsche Bank wrote. </li><li>Initial Jobless Claims (Thurs.): Economists forecast that first-time filings for unemployment insurance rose last week by 270,000. </li><li>Empire State Manufacturing Survey (Fri.): This reading on economic activity in New York from the state's Fed is expected at 2.21 for April. In March, it turned positive, to 0.62, for the first time since last July. Barclays (who forecast a "payback" decline to -1.0) wrote: "Last month's report contained sharp moves higher in new orders and shipments, which were then substantiated by positive readings across other regional PMIs and the national ISM. On net, recent data point to some stabilization in the manufacturing sector."</li><li>Industrial Production (Fri.): Economists estimate that industrial production rose 0.1% month-on-month in March. Manufacturing production is forecast to have increased at the same rate. "The ISM manufacturing index for March was encouraging, so perhaps there is a bit of upside potential, but the sector remains under pressure," Wells Fargo said. </li><li>UMich Consumer Confidence (Fri.): Economists estimate the preliminary index of consumer sentiment in March at 91.9. Here's Barclays: "Retail gasoline prices have flattened out in the past week and financial market volatility has broadly declined in recent weeks. As these factors have historically been positive for sentiment, we expect a modest move higher in early April."</li></ul><h2>Market Commentary</h2>Last week, the $160 billion deal between <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/pfizer-allergan-terminate-merger-2016-4">Allergan and Pfizer</a> imploded. The two companies called off their merger on Wednesday, just after the Treasury department announced <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-treasury-department-sets-its-sights-against-inversions-2016-4">new rules against tax inversions</a> and US President Barack Obama lashed out against them. New York-based Pfizer had hoped to cut its tax bill by about $1 billion by being based in Ireland, where Allergan is.This deal was the largest example of an inversion-driven one yet.The latest regulations target so-called earnings stripping, in which a US-based unit borrows internally from its foreign unit and enjoys interest deductions on the higher US tax rate. These deductions then go untaxed, saving the company money."Treasury's notice regarding tax deduction limits on transfer cost based interest expense on intracompany debt applies only to non US domiciled firms," wrote Deutsche Bank's David Bianco in a client note. He said only 25 S&amp;P 500 companies are domiciled abroad.And how does the tax rate impact S&amp;P 500 profits? Here's Bianco:Nearly all S&amp;P 500 reported foreign profits are truly earned abroad, by providing goods and services to foreign customers. The notion that foreign S&amp;P profits represent offshore manufacturing simply selling back to the US is unaware of how S&amp;P 500 operate and the nature of today's global economy. Every 1% point change in the S&amp;P's effective tax rate changes its net margin by roughly 15bp, which affects y/y S&amp;P EPS growth by 1.25-1.50%. This is because the S&amp;P non- GAAP pretax profit margin is about 15% and tax rate changes affect how much of the pretax margin passes to the net margin. Every 25bp change in S&amp;P net margins affects y/y S&amp;P EPS growth by 2.25-2.50%. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/amazing-spacex-rocket-landing-2016-4">Watch SpaceX pull off its most impressive rocket landing to date</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="thbGRvMjE6cuKno6K5vU3gLQSnXRSkj3" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

EARNINGS SEASON IS HERE: Your full preview of this week's big economic events

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image">REUTERS/Eduardo MunozJorge, an immigrant from Mexico dressed as the Sesame Street character Elmo, in Times Square, New York on Tuesday. </div></div></div>Good morning and welcome to August. Here's what you need to know.
1. Jobs Day. The consensus among analysts is for <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/july-jobs-report-preview-2014-7">nonfarm payrolls to hit 230,000</a>. Nomura sees it coming in a bit higher, at 255,000. "With the six-month moving average of payroll growth already at 231k in June, the largest since early 2006, incoming data on the labor market in July suggest that conditions continued to improve. We forecast that government employment, which has increased in four of the past five months, will rise by 5k in July, due to the improving fiscal balances of state and local governments. As such, we estimate that private payrolls rose by a net new 250k." They also see a 0.1% decline in the unemployment rate to 6.0%.
2. Tesla Delivers. The electric automaker <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-q2-earnings-2014-7">reported</a> adjusted earnings and revenue that topped forecasts, and it says it's still on track to deliver 35,000 vehicles in 2014, despite lowering its guidance for Q3 deliveries. The firm now predicts it will deliver 100,000 on an annualized basis in 2015. Barclays calls this a massive ramp-up but not unattainable: "While guiding to a below-consensus 3Q '14 on deliveries and earnings, Tesla gave bullish guidance for 2014 and 2015 that should support the shares - guiding to a 4Q delivery rate of over 13,000 units and an exit rate of 100k units in 2015. The guidance provides us some insight into Tesla's expectations for a quite steep delivery ramp-up over the coming years and into the Model 3 era." Adjusted EPS was $0.11 against $0.04 forecast. Revenue came in at $857.5 million, versus a consensus estimate for $813 million. 
3. Chinese Manufacturing Hits 18-Month High. <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/july-hsbc-china-pmi-2014-7">HSBC China manufacturing PMI hit 51.7 in July</a>, up from 50.7 in June. That missed expectations for a rise to 52 and was also lower than the flash reading of 52. But it's still pretty good - anything above 50 indicates expansion. "The economy is improving sequentially and registered across-the-board improvement compared to June," Hongbin Qu, HSBC chief economist for China, said in a press release.
4. Markets Tank. U.S. futures, along with stocks in Europe and Asia, were down across the board in advance of the jobs report. S&amp;P500 futures were off 0.7%. London's FTSE fell 1%; Frankfurt's DAX 2%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng declined 0.9%. Japan's Nikkei was off 0.6%. U.S. crude hit its lowest level since March, falling below $98. U.S. yields on the 10-year climbed two basis points. "Investors have been looking for an excuse to sell," Angus Gluskie, who helps oversee more than $550 million at White Funds Management in Sydney, <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-31/global-rout-halts-stock-streak-as-oil-slips-dollar-gains.html">told Bloomberg</a>. "We've got a range of convenient reasons for investors to take some money off the table. The geopolitical risks have been rising and data flow in the U.S. is suggesting that the Fed may have to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. The Argentine issue is another piece of adverse news flow."
5. Eric Cantor Is Resigning. After losing a primary last month, the House Majority Leader now says he will leave office early, on Aug. 18, and is requesting a special election to replace him. "The Virginia Republican <a href="http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/virginia-politics/cantor-to-resign-from-congress-on-aug/article_b62e871b-fa55-57fe-9019-6efaf52cbcc7.html" target="_blank">told</a> the Richmond Times-Dispatch that he had called on Gov. Terry McAuliffe to set up a special election for his 7th congressional district seat so that his replacement could begin immediately after the election and not when the 114th Congress starts in January," <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2014/08/eric-cantor-quit-special-election-109624.html#ixzz398NykwAh">Politico reported.</a> 
6. Earnings. Burger King, Chevron, Church &amp; Dwight, Clorox, and Procter &amp; Gamble all report before the bell. SociétéGenerale earlier reported year-over-year profits growth of 7.8%, but shares were down 2% in Friday trading as revenue from equities climbed by only 3%, and net banking income fell 4%, <a href="http://on.ft.com/1u6hU1L">the FT noted</a>.
7. More Data. 
<ul>
<li>8:30 a.m. Personal Income and Outlays. Personal income and consumer spending are both expected to have climbed 0.4%.</li>
<li>9:45 a.m. PMI Manufacturing Index. Consensus forecast is for a reading of 56. against 57.3 prior.</li>
<li>9:55 a.m. UMich/Reuters Consumer Sentiment. Consensus forecast is for a reading of 81.5 versus 81.3 prior. </li>
<li>10 a.m. ISM Manufacturing. Consensus forecast is for a reading of 56.0 against 55.3 prior.</li>
<li>10 a.m. Construction Spending. Consensus forecast is for a reading of 0.5% compared with 0.1% prior.</li>
</ul>
8. Auto Sales. Global automakers <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/us-auto-sales-july-2014-2014-8?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+clusterstock+(ClusterStock)">will be announcing</a> results throughout the day. Chrysler already reported U.S. sales climbed 20% in July. Japan domestic sales <a href="https://www.marketwatch.com/story/japans-domestic-auto-sales-edge-up-in-july-2014-08-01">were slightly higher.</a>
9. Cease-Fire Breaks Down. A proposed three-day cease-fire that began Friday <a href="http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/08/01/israel-hamas-gaza/13451079/?sf29258689=1">collapsed in a matter of hours</a> as fighting between Israel and forces in Gaza resumed. It wasn't clear what triggered the break down. 
10. French Phone Company In T-Mobile Bid. Iliad has upset presumed negotiations between Sprint and T-Mobile by launching its own $15 billion cash bid for T-Mobile. From The Wall Street Journal: "Iliad appears to have seized an opening in Sprint and T-Mobile US's failure to announce a deal yet, saying its deal likely wouldn't encounter regulatory obstacles. Sprint has yet to disclose a formal offer for T-Mobile US. 'The U.S. mobile market is large and attractive,' Iliad said in confirming a report on its bid by The Wall Street Journal. 'T-Mobile US has successfully established a disruptive position, which in many ways, is similar to the one Iliad has built in France,' said Iliad, which is known for sparking a price war in the country's mobile-telephone market."

You Searched For "umich consumer sentiment" and got 13 results

Here comes consumer confidence ...

Akin Oyedele

Here comes consumer confidence ...

Akin Oyedele

Here Comes University Of Michigan Consumer Confidence...

Myles Udland

Global shares struggle as investors weigh up chances of a mega Fed rate hike and downbeat earnings

Amanda Cooper

Here's the 'eye-popping' chart BlackRock CEO Larry Fink shared in his annual letter

Elena Holodny

STOCKS RISE: Here's what you need to know

Elena Holodny

One Awesome Economic Story Was Confirmed Consistently Across Today's Mess Of Economic Data

Elena Holodny

Markets Are Red

Joe Weisenthal

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Mamta Badkar

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Rob Wile

10 Things You Need To Know Before The Opening Bell

Rob Wile

EARNINGS SEASON IS HERE: Your full preview of this week's big economic events

Akin Oyedele

10 Things You Need To Know Before the Opening Bell

Rob Wile