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<ul class="summary-list"><li>President Joe Biden will allow Ukraine to strike Russia with US-provided long-range missiles.</li><li>The US previously restricted Ukraine from striking Russia with the powerful ATACMS.</li></ul>President Joe Biden has authorized the use of powerful, US-provided long-range missiles for Ukraine to strike inside Russia, according to multiple reports.The Army Tactical Missile Systems, or ATACMS, will likely be used against targets in Russia's Kursk region, The New York Times first reported on Sunday. Ukraine <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-trying-get-russians-accept-ukraine-incursion-kursk-normal-report-2024-8">launched a surprise invasion</a> there in early August.The policy shift, which comes just weeks before President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration, came after Russia launched a widespread missile and drone attack targeting Ukraine's power grid on Sunday.It also comes as North Korea joins the war. US intelligence reported earlier this month that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korean-troops-ukraine-russia-kursk-8000-front-lines-2024-11">thousands of North Korean troops</a> clad in Russian gear were set to hit the front lines in Kursk, and they have already <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/new-details-first-ukraine-attack-north-korea-troops-russia-kursk-2024-11">seen combat</a> against Kyiv's forces in the region.The move is a significant shift in US policy.The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/atacms-ukraine-could-make-crimea-militarily-worthless-russia-expert-2024-4">US provided Ukraine with ATACMS</a> in the fall of 2023, although Kyiv had long been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-f16s-less-effective-russia-defenses-missiles-cant-strike-experts-2024-9">restricted</a> from striking across Russia's borders and instead was limited to targets in the Russian-occupied territory of Ukraine. The longer-range variant of the missile can travel a little under 200 miles.Ukrainian officials, including President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have long tried to get the United States to drop the restrictions. They were thought to be in place because the Biden administration feared a policy shift could escalate the conflict. Zelenskyy did not immediately comment on the development.Military experts previously told Business Insider that the ATACMS <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-kursk-offensive-more-successful-without-west-limits-russia-experts-2024-8">restrictions were hindering Ukraine's progress</a> by making it harder to target the source of Russian attacks and instead forcing Kyiv to defend against each attack as it occurred.However, despite the restrictions, Ukraine has used an arsenal of domestically produced drones and missiles to carry out long-range strikes on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-deep-strikes-inside-russia-meant-to-weaken-war-machines-2024-10">key military and energy facilities</a> inside Russia.Biden's decision will allow Ukraine to train its sights on some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interactive-map-shows-russian-targets-ukraine-could-hit-with-atacms-2024-8">245 Russian targets</a> using ATACMS. Beyond the US-provided missiles, Kyiv also fields long-range cruise missiles that the UK and France provided.The Defense Department and the White House National Security Council declined to comment on the decision.

Biden will allow Ukraine to use powerful ATACMS to strike inside Russia

<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korea fighting alongside Russia would be a serious escalation to the Ukraine war.</li><li>NATO and Western allies are facing pressure to respond — but have historically been hesitant.</li></ul>Western allies have options to react to the threat of North Korean troops in Russia, but are hamstrung by fears of escalation, military experts told Business Insider. On Monday, the Pentagon<a target="_blank" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/article/3948100/pentagon-deputy-press-secretary-sabrina-singh-holds-an-off-camera-on-the-record/"> said</a> that 10,000 North Korean troops had been shipped to Russia for training and were likely to join Russian forces"over the next several weeks." NATO chief Mark Rutte said that some troops are already in Kursk, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/opinions_230105.htm">calling</a> the move "a significant escalation." He added that it is "yet another" contravention of UN Security Council resolutions. He said the bloc is "actively consulting" on what to do next. Despite these statements — and a similar chorus of condemnation from Western governments — few commitments have been made. On Wednesday, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expressed frustration, saying that his allies' response was "not so loud as it has to be" in reaction to the North Korean threat,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/volodymyr-zelenskyy-war-in-ukraine-russia-north-korean-troops-western-allies-response/"> Politico reported</a>. "Till now, we heard some reactions, but it is not strong enough," he added. <h2>A watershed moment?</h2>In itself, 10,000 more troops in Russia's war in Ukraine is not a game changer, Patrick Bury, a military analyst at the UK's University of Bath, told BI. The troops, many with no experience in real war situations, could also be of limited help. There is reason, however, to imagine the numbers could rise. North Korea has steadily ramped up its cooperation with Russia, reportedly supplying<a target="_blank" href="https://www.thetimes.com/world/russia-ukraine-war/article/north-korea-supplies-half-of-the-shells-used-by-russia-in-ukraine-d3fkhppjs"> half of all artillery shells</a> used in Ukraine in the last year. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has the fourth-largest standing army in the world, so there is no shortage of troops. Crucially, experts consider his regime to be receiving<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-military-officials-helping-russia-ukraine-win-for-kim-2024-10"> an economic and technological lifeline</a> in exchange. Edward Hunter Christie, a former NATO official and a research fellow at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, described the dangers of the partnership as "a much more serious test of resolve for the West than most people currently realize." He added: "There's a reluctance to act." This at least means there will be no rash decisions, he said. Christie, along with other experts BI spoke to, described a hesitancy and fear of escalation among Ukraine's biggest Western partners that amounts to alack of overall strategy. <h2>The West has some options — and a history of slapping them down</h2>When it comes to options for the US and Europe, "the tools are the same tools that have been there all along," Richard Fontaine, CEO of the Center for a New American Security,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com./news/articles/2024-10-28/ukraine-allies-face-limited-options-as-north-korea-troops-arrive?embedded-checkout=true"> told Bloomberg.</a> That includes the ad-hoc trickling through of aid packages like one<a target="_blank" href="https://kyivindependent.com/norways-pm-announces-new-500-million-euro-aid-package-for-ukraine/"> recently announced by Norway</a>. It also includes things that have long been ruled out, like allowing Ukraine to make long-range strikes in Russia with Western-supplied missiles. A bipartisan group in Congress has called on Biden to allow Poland to intercept Russian missiles in Ukrainian airspace, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4960374-biden-poland-air-defense-ukraine/">The Hill reported</a>. It's a move that NATO's former chief Jens Stoltenberg had earlier ruled out, saying it would risk the alliance "becoming part of the conflict," the outlet reported. South Korea, too, has said it is considering sending military aid directly to Ukraine. It's an unprecedented move that could prove highly beneficial, but which the state is hesitant to make,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-korea-ukraine-weapons-big-difference-russia-north-korea-2024-10"> experts told BI</a>. Lithuania's foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, has also revived a suggestion made in February by France's President Emmanuel Macron of not ruling out the deployment of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/french-president-wont-rule-out-sending-troops-ukraine-2024-2">NATO troops in Ukraine</a>, in support roles. "We are still on the back foot, reacting to escalation instead of reversing it,"<a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/GLandsbergis/status/1848006509013225679"> Landsbergis wrote on X</a>. "Macron's ideas should now be revisited." That idea was earlier<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/everyone-angry-germany-series-screw-ups-leaks-scholz-macron-ukraine-2024-3"> publicly slapped down</a> by Germany's Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. Such a move "would free up a lot of resources for Ukraine," said Ann Marie Dailey, a geopolitical strategist at RAND. It would also send an important signal to Russia, she said: "That they don't have dominance on the escalation ladder." <h2>The escalation trap</h2>President Joe Biden's administration — along with much of Western Europe — has largely avoided actions that could be seen as escalating the conflict. The fact that now a serious escalation looks possible thanks to North Korea is an indication of the failure of that policy, Christie told BI. The US presidential election and the impending change of administration also puts a chilling effect on any dramatic changes in policy for the coming months, he said. "We live in an age of US-led hesitancy within the Western world, which just keeps on failing us, which just keeps on increasing the level of danger to the security of the collective West," he said. The bind for the Biden administration is not only in dealing with two nuclear states, but also that North Korea's belligerence could cause the conflict to spill over toward its southern neighbor and<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-muted-response-russia-north-korea-alliance-costly-ukraine-economy-2024-10">damage relations with China.</a> Western states are likely to have been quietly hoping that China might step in diplomatically and dissuade North Korea, Christie said. At some point, the West has to react decisively, he argued. Dailey told BI: "The problem with having a strategy of de-escalation is that if that is your stated strategy, you've already ceded every step on the escalation ladder to the enemy." In Bury's view, the West's problem is that it cannot even agree on its broader strategy, let alone decide how to implement it. "The broader point here is: the West, we're not doing the strategy," he said. "We're muddling through."

What can the West do about North Korea giving troops to Russia? Not much it hasn't already flinched from.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian missile and drone strikes are becoming more intense, a new study found.</li><li>Russia has ramped up its strikes recently and degraded Ukraine's electricity production.</li></ul>To grasp the amount of firepower that Russia has unleashed on Ukraine, consider these numbers:An average of 23 missiles and attack drones per day have pummeled Ukraine between September 2022 and September 2024. These attacks comprised 36 different models of missiles and drones, including Iskander ballistic missiles, Kh-59 cruise missiles and Iranian-made Shahed kamikaze drones. The figures don't include the numerous attacks by small drones. These weapons are by no means limited to military targets, either. Among the shattered buildings far from the frontlines are <a target="_blank" href="https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-kyiv-attack-33aecd50cf252ff6184c0c14f90588b5">hospitals</a>, apartment complexes and a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/09/04/nx-s1-5099126/russian-strike-on-ukrainian-military-academy-kills-dozens">military academy</a> filled with cadets.Russian strikes have become more ferocious since Russia invaded in February 2022, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/assessing-russian-firepower-strikes-ukraine">study</a> by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington-based think tank. In April 2023, 117 missiles were fired at Ukraine. In August 2024, that number soared by a factor of 10 to 1,110 rockets.Utilizing open-source data, including a Ukrainian analyst who compiled a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.kaggle.com/datasets/piterfm/massive-missile-attacks-on-ukraine/data">database</a> of Russian attacks, CSIS focused on Russian "firepower strikes," an emerging concept in the Russian, Chinese and US militaries in which multiple types of missiles and drones are combined for maximum effect. In addition to saturating Ukraine's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-kills-russian-missiles-us-air-defenses-retired-decades-ago-2024-7">air defense network</a>, Russia launched these weapons from multiple locations and directions to confuse the defenders.This relentless bombardment hasn't enabled Russia to defeat Ukraine, nor has it terrorized the Ukrainian public into submission as Russia's leader has sought. But it has inflicted heavy damage. Strikes against Ukraine's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-shortage-energy-russia-missile-attack-nuclear-infrastructure-research/">energy infrastructure</a> has knocked out two-thirds of the country's electric power generation capacity, crimping manufacturing and leaving many Ukrainians shivering in the winter cold.Estimates of Russian missile strikes, and Ukrainian interceptions, should be treated with caution. "These are Ukraine's officially reported numbers," Yasir Atalan, a researcher at CSIS's Futures Lab, told Business Insider. "So, any inference should be based on this."Nonetheless, there is a wide variation in the intensity of Russian strikes that seems to shift according to Moscow's priorities. April 2023 saw an average of just 10 missiles per day. In August 2024, that number soared to 35 per day. "There were 17 days during the study period when missile launches exceeded 82 missiles in a single day," CSIS said. "These high-intensity launch days correspond to specific military operations, strategic offensives, or responses to critical developments on the battlefield, reflecting moments of heightened conflict intensity."From October 2022 to December 2022, daily missile attacks rose from an average of 22 per day to 33. "While high, the levels are likely smaller than what Israel's aerial strikes on Gaza and Iranian salvos targeting Israel imply about modern firepower strikes," CSIS said. "Moscow either was trying to preserve Ukrainian infrastructure it thought it could seize intact or was thwarted by covert action — or bad logistics and targeting — from unleashing its full arsenal."December 2023 through March 2024 saw between 26 and 29 missiles per day. "These sustained high levels correspond to a drive by Russia to destroy <a target="_blank" href="https://theconversation.com/crippling-civilian-infrastructure-has-long-been-part-of-russian-generals-playbook-putin-is-merely-expanding-that-approach-192226">Ukrainian critical infrastructure</a> as a means of pressuring Kyiv to end the conflict," said CSIS.August 2024 was the most active month in the study, with an average 36 per day for a total of 1,110 missiles. However, September 2024 only had 12 missiles per day, "indicating a temporary lull in missile activities linked to either low stockpiles or Ukrainian long-range strikes."If there is any good news here, it is that Ukraine has achieved surprising success in stopping Russian missile and drone attacks when it has been well stocked with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/countries-are-giving-ukraine-air-defenses-for-russian-missiles-drones-2022-11">Western air defenses</a> like <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-giving-ukraine-second-patriot-missile-system-fight-russia-reports-2024-6">Patriot</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/air-defense-systems-guard-washington-dc-arrive-ukraine-russia-attacks-2022-11">NASAMS</a>. The average daily intercept rate is almost 84%, though Atalan emphasized that this number includes drones as well as missiles.These figures suggest several key factors, CSIS concluded. One is the importance of Russia's allies in replenishing its missile and drone arsenals. "Maintaining an average of over 23 missiles launched daily over nearly two years demonstrates a high level of sustained military capability in Moscow and logistical support from countries like Iran, North Korea, and China. The United States and its partners need to do more to curb the ability of these regimes to replenish Russia's arsenal."Ukraine's success in intercepting Russian missiles suggests that its mix of Western-supplied and Russian-designed air defense systems are able to provide an effective missile defense capability. "Keeping this intercept rate high will require continued Western support for Ukraine," CSIS said.Because missile strikes ramp when Russian ground troops launch major <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-facing-powerful-russian-offensive-in-east-grim-outlook-2024-11">offensives</a>, early warning of Russian offensive preparations is crucial. And the fact that Russian strikes are launched from multiple sites, and use a mix of weapons, suggests the solution is to boost Ukraine's own long-range bombardment capability. Ukraine recently turned to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-hit-another-russian-ammo-depot-deep-strike-on-airfield-2024-10">strikes</a> on Russian ammunition depots in an attempt to reduce Russia's firepower advantage."Ukraine needs the flexibility to hit multiple missile launch sites deep inside Russia to reduce the potency of Moscow's firepower strikes," CSIS said.Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

Russia's daily attacks on Ukraine have intensified by 10x, study finds

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine is facing a grim outlook along sectors of the front, especially in the east.</li><li>Kyiv's struggling with manpower and equipment shortages, among other challenges.</li></ul>Russia's grinding offensive operations have been gaining momentum in eastern Ukraine as challenges for the defenders mount. At the moment, Ukrainian forces in the east have a problem.Over the weekend, Commander-in-Chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Oleksandr Syrskyi said his soldiers were facing one of Russia's "most powerful" offensives since the start of war in February 2022 along various sectors of the front line.Ukraine's shocking invasion of Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-kursk-incursion-ww2-battle-of-the-bulge-2024-11">Kursk region</a> briefly took the focus off the fighting in the Donbas, but now Ukraine is losing ground both inside Russia and at home.In the Donbas, Ukrainian troops are falling back from defensive positions in towns throughout the Donetsk area. Last month, Russia made its most territorial gains in a single month since the summer of 2022, more than 150 square miles. Its costly attacks appear to be achieving some success.Russia's advances raise concerns that it could capture Pokrovsk, which serves as an important center for Ukrainian military logistics and operations in the Donbas, where the fighting in Ukraine first began a decade ago.<div type="image" title="A dark outline of a Ukrainian soldier standing on top of the ground with trees in the background. Everything is black and set against a grey sky." height="4000" width="6000" msid="114959778" hostid="261" sizebytes="1839280"></div>And inside Russia's Kursk region, Ukrainian troops are also losing territory they've occupied since the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-can-pull-off-shock-complex-invasion-of-russia-2024-8">August 6 invasion</a>, and while the Russians face a tough fight to kick the Ukrainians out, Kyiv's forces inside Russia face challenges as well. On Monday, Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder said the US believed at least 10,000 North Korean troops were in Kursk to help back the territory from Ukraine.<h2 id="40ff497a-97db-40bf-b60b-d23e8d6d3a70">A tough fight in eastern Ukraine</h2>Russia's campaign in Ukraine has been costly. Western intelligence estimated in early September that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-suffered-hundreds-thousands-casualties-in-ukraine-western-intelligence-2024-9">over 600,000 Russian soldiers had been killed or wounded</a> since the start of the war. Russia has also seen tremendous equipment losses, including thousands of armored vehicles."Despite the costs, both to matériel and personnel," Michael Kofman, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and war analyst, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/ukraine-war-why-russia-is-in-more-trouble-than-it-looks.html">told</a> the Intelligencer last month, the Russians have "been making fairly steady incremental gains."Russia has built up certain meaningful advantages in manpower, industrial capacity, and matériel, and it has largely held the initiative this year, leveraging that for gains on the battlefield.Jack Watling, a land warfare expert at the Royal United Services Institute, recently painted a bleak picture in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/ukraine-must-turn-tide-it-can-negotiate">Foreign Affairs</a> article, writing that the Ukrainian forces are stretched thin along the conflict's 600-mile front line and are struggling with shortages of armored combat vehicles, artillery, and ammunition.<div type="image" title="Four Russian soldiers riding a self-propelled mortar on a dusty track." height="1438" width="2555" msid="114959772" hostid="261" sizebytes="422596"></div>"The more it lacks these key types of equipment and weaponry, the more it must depend on infantry to hold the front, causing an associated rise in casualties," he wrote.And Ukraine cannot sustain significant losses, as manpower shortfalls have been a constant challenge.Late last month, the secretary of the Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council told Kyiv's Parliament it would draft an additional 160,000 people; in the past, Ukrainian officials have considered various changes to conscription and recruitment, but the country has largely avoided taking what some observers see as necessary mobilization steps. Last weekend, the Ukrainian Air Force <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.co/ftCbACIupE">said</a> that it will transfer some of its personnel to serve as infantry.Watling noted that the thinning of Ukraine's tactical air defense has given Russian reconnaissance drones <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-downed-s70-drone-ukraine-still-got-it-uk-intel-2024-10">more freedom to provide critical targeting data</a> from locations deeper inside the country, allowing the Russians to then use missiles and loitering munitions to target key assets. Russia's improved intelligence, reconnaissance, and surveillance picture has been important, as have accelerated kill chains.Furthermore, Russian troops continue to execute relentless wave attacks that expose Ukrainian positions. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hit-ukraine-hundreds-of-glide-bombs-less-than-week-2024-3">Glide bombs</a> are used to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-air-superiority-avdiivka-could-be-devastating-for-ukraine-2024-2">shatter defenses and drive back Ukrainian artillery</a>, letting Russia move its artillery forward.<div type="image" title="A US-provided M142 HIMARS launches a rocket on Russian positions on December 29 in Ukraine." height="1436" width="2160" msid="114959781" hostid="261" sizebytes="203660"></div>And then when Ukraine's defenses are broken, Watling wrote, the Russians push forward and raid the trenches to capture ground. These are bloody operations, but they appear to be yielding results.Russia's successful advances have prompted pessimism and low morale among some in Washington and Kyiv, officials <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/01/us/politics/russia-ukraine-war.html?smid=tw-share">told</a> The New York Times last week, and raise questions about what's next for Ukraine.The Russian army is not unstoppable, though. Kofman argued in his recent interview that "Russia's actually operating under very <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-mass-advantage-should-decline-winter-or-2025-war-expert-2024-10">significant constraints</a>," adding that "its advantage on the battlefield is likely to decline as we get into this winter and look further ahead into 2025." Russia can't keep up the kind of losses it's been absorbing indefinitely, and its offensive will eventually culminate, with the possibility that it might be difficult for it to kick off a new one.US officials told The New York Times that a window of opportunity could open next summer for Ukraine to take advantage of expected Russian manpower and equipment shortages, but that possibility is conditional on whether US and Western support for Ukraine continues.<div type="image" title="Trump" height="2422" width="3804" msid="114959770" hostid="261" sizebytes="397396"></div>Right now, a big question mark for Kyiv is who will win the 2024 election. Former President Donald Trump and current Vice President Kamala Harris have presented voters with completely different approaches for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-trump-could-handle-ukraine-war-if-reelected-scenarios-2024-10">how they'd handle the war in Ukraine</a>. While Trump has made a variety of claims about ending the war quickly, Harris has suggested she'd stay the course on supporting Ukraine's fight.But regardless of who wins, the party that controls Congress will also have a major impact on how much aid the US gives to Ukraine. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/congress-vote-could-make-break-ukraine-in-war-with-russia-2024-4">Republicans in Congress notably blocked US assistance packages</a> to Ukraine late last year and into this year, which had consequences for Ukraine's ability to fight on the battlefield.

Ukraine is facing serious problems in the east, where Russia's forces are grinding forward

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Some observers have argued surprise attacks are nearly impossible due to wide surveillance.</li><li>Ukraine's Kursk invasion caught Russia by surprise and followed time-honored tactics.</li></ul>When Ukraine unleashed its Kursk offensive in August, it wasn't just the Russians who were surprised.Some experts had argued that large-scale attacks were no longer possible in modern warfare. Any attempt to mass forces for a penetration would be quickly detected by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-drone-footage-yahya-sinwar-final-moments-how-far-drones-2024-10">drones</a>, spyplanes or satellites, the thinking went, enabling the defender to reinforce his defenses."The proliferation of unmanned aerial systems (UAS) in the Ukraine-Russia war has created a transparent battlefield marked by near-persistent surveillance, making operational surprise difficult to achieve," according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://oe.tradoc.army.mil/2024/09/19/how-ukraine-overcame-the-transparent-battlefield-to-achieve-operational-surprise-in-kursk/">blog</a> by the US Army's Training and Doctrine Command.But despite hordes of Russian drones keeping an eagle eye for Ukrainian movements, Ukraine managed to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.newsweek.com/ukraine-kursk-offensive-500-square-miles-russia-kyiv-1944894">concentrate its best brigades</a> for an attack that stunned the Kremlin and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-seized-nyc-sized-area-russia-lightning-offensive-photos-2024-8">seized</a> 500 square miles at the height of the offensive.How did Ukraine do it? By using the same time-honored techniques that Germany employed in its surprise attack at the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.army.mil/botb/">Battle of the Bulge</a> in December 1944.First came careful preparation by identifying weak spots in Russian defenses. By massing forces for offensives in eastern Ukraine, this thinned out the rest of the 600-mile front line, including the Kursk region. Open-source intelligence "indicates that up to 75 percent of Russia's ground forces, airborne units, and naval infantry are deployed in or near eastern Ukraine," TRADOC noted. And because Russian drones and other ISR — intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance — systems were concentrated in areas where Russia was on the attack, this meant lighter coverage of Kursk.Similarly, in late 1944 — even as Germany was reeling from massive defeats in Normandy and by an advancing Russia on the Eastern Front— Hitler and his top advisers identified the Ardennes region of Belgium as a weak spot in the center of the Allied lines. While American and British forces were concentrated to the north and south for a final offensive into Germany, the Allies considered the hilly, wooded terrain of the Ardennes a quiet sector safe to defend with a few depleted or inexperienced divisions. The heavy forests could serve as cover for the German infantry and Panzer armored forces as they advanced.Before its August assault, the Ukrainian high command also took care to keep words of the operation to as few people as possible. "Once intelligence was collected and analyzed, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, led the planning with only a few senior officers in attendance," TRADOC said. "The planning sessions were likely conducted face-to-face to prevent the risk of Russian cyber actors or signals intelligence from discovering the plan. Press interviews with Ukrainian soldiers indicate that the incursion forces were not notified until hours before the operation."To conceal its preparations, Ukraine also resorted to disinformation, such as spreading the word that the Ukrainian army <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-wont-be-able-launch-new-offensive-year-nato-official-2024-7">wouldn't be capable</a> of launching an offensive before spring 2025. Ukrainian troops were unwitting parts of the deception. For example, "Ukraine's military announced the 61st Mechanized Brigade would be moving to Vovchansk, a city in the northern sector of the fighting in eastern Ukraine," said TRADOC. "Even after the 61st was told they would go into Russia, senior officers in the unit thought it was a bluff."Likewise, knowledge of the Ardennes offensive — codenamed Operation Wacht am Rhein — was confined to a small circle of officers sworn to secrecy upon pain of death. Allied cryptographers had broken high-level German radio codes (the "Ultra" program), but German forces employed radio silence, and orders were conveyed by courier and telephone. Even the name Wacht am Rhein ("Watch on the Rhine") was meant to convince Allied intelligence that it was a defensive plan to stop an Allied crossing of the Rhine River into Germany.Ukraine prepped its offensive by blinding Russian ISR with strikes on Russian airfields, as well as using Ukrainian drones to destroy Russian UAVs. To delay a Russian response, Ukraine used rockets, drones and artillery-delivered mines against airbases and command and control centers, as well as interdicting Russian reinforcements.This too echoed Nazi Germany's final offensive. It had timed the Ardennes operation to coincide with a long spell of bad weather, which grounded Allied reconnaissance planes. On the misty dawn of Dec. 16, 1944, a massive German artillery barrage disrupted American communications, while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nationalww2museum.org/war/articles/operation-greif-secret-mission-sow-chaos-us-army">German commandos</a> — dressed in American uniforms — infiltrated US lines to spread confusion and panic.The question for Ukraine is whether its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battle-of-kursk-ukraine-russia-railroad-2024-9">Kursk operation</a> will fare better than the Bulge. Instead of a breakthrough that changed the tide of World War II, the German offensive eventually bogged down because of poor terrain, lack of fuel and fierce American resistance.While seizing some Russian territory and creating dismay in Moscow, Ukraine's offensive has failed to divert Russian forces from eastern Ukraine, and Russian counterattacks are shrinking the Ukrainian salient.Nonetheless, Ukraine has shown that surprise attacks are possible even in the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/armies-need-their-own-drone-air-force-flown-by-specialists-study-says-2024-5">Drone Age</a>. "The Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk region demonstrated that operational surprise is still possible in the Ukraine conflict by avoiding and degrading ISR — a lesson that could broadly be applied to future large-scale combat operations in other theaters as well," TRADOC concluded.Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

Ukraine fooled Russia with the same deceptions Germany used at WWII's Battle of the Bulge 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Drones, from combat to intelligence-gathering systems, have dominated the battlefield in Ukraine.</li><li>Ukraine and Russia have boosted domestic drone production efforts to meet front-line needs.</li></ul>The stunning rise of drone warfare has pushed Ukraine and Russia to boost their respective domestic efforts to produce unmanned systems, kicking off a high-stakes race to out-manufacture the other.Right now, Kyiv appears to be winning. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this week that the country's defense companies can now produce 4 million drones annually.Speaking at the second International Defense Industries Forum in Kyiv, Zelenskyy said that Ukraine has already contracted to produce 1.5 million unmanned systems. He did not specify what kind of drones these would be.By contrast, Russian President Vladimir Putin said last month that Moscow intended to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/putin-says-drone-supplies-russian-army-increase-tenfold-2024-2024-09-19/">ramp up drone production</a> tenfold to around 1.4 million a year, noticeably less than its neighbor.Drones have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-isnt-ready-drones-potential-biggest-threat-next-battlefield-2024-5">dominated the battlefield</a> in Ukraine, with both sides using them for combat and intelligence-gathering purposes. Although more traditional military drones are active. First-person view (FPV) drones have become particularly prominent, proving to be cheap and effective ways to deliver precision strikes on troops and vehicles.The demand for more unmanned systems has pushed Ukraine and Russia to increase their domestic drone output to keep up with battlefield requirements — setting the stage for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-locked-cat-and-mouse-game-drone-production-official-2024-6">an unprecedented arms race</a>.<div type="image" title="A Ukrainian soldier prepares an FPV drone to its flying position in the direction of Kreminna, Ukraine, on August 25." height="3648" width="5472" msid="113949559" hostid="261" sizebytes="1205544"></div>Ukraine has set ambitious production goals, especially for the decidedly valuable FPV drones, but <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-on-track-produce-more-mortar-drones-than-planned-official-2024-7">officials say it will exceed them</a>. Kyiv has also built up an arsenal of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-drone-boats-heat-seeking-missiles-scare-russian-aircraft-commander-2024-6">homemade naval drones</a>, which it has used to wreak havoc on Moscow's Black Sea Fleet, and long-range attack drones, which it uses to strike key military and energy facilities <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-says-struck-russian-base-storing-fighter-bombers-glide-bombs-2024-10">deep inside Russia</a>.Ukraine's increased drone output has come amid broader efforts to scale up its defense-industrial base. Kyiv went from almost no weapons production before the war to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-makes-homemade-weapons-needs-more-of-key-ingredient-official-2024-7">producing new munitions</a> at lightning speed."While years ago, the Ukrainian defense industry unfortunately looked helpless, today it is an industry that is on its way to leadership, at least in Europe," Zelenskyy said Tuesday. "Today, these are industries that Ukraine can once again be rightfully proud of."Conflict analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a think tank that has been closely following the war in Ukraine, said this week that Kyiv's ongoing efforts to grow its domestic military production would eventually allow the country to reduce its reliance on Western military support.But, the analysts wrote in a Wednesday <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2-2024">assessment,</a> Kyiv "still requires considerable Western assistance for the next several years in order to defend against Russian aggression and liberate strategically vital areas that Russian forces currently occupy."Western countries have provided well over $100 billion in military and security aid for Ukraine. The US is the single biggest supplier of weaponry, having provided nearly $60 billion worth of security assistance since the start of the war.

Ukraine appears to be beating Russia in the drone production race

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Shares of companies with ties to Russia have rallied since Trump won the US election.</li><li>Russia-linked stocks have struggled since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.</li></ul>Stocks tied to Russia have risen since Donald Trump won the US presidential election as investors hope that he follows through on campaign rhetoric on bringing an end to the war in Ukraine. Raiffeisen Bank International, an Austrian bank, has seen its stock surge 12.2% to a seven-month high since the market closed on Tuesday. Hungary-based OTP Bank soared 4.9% in that time. Both banks have operations in Russia. Turkey-based construction firm Enka Insaat, meanwhile, is up 8.6% since Tuesday.Shares of companies with ties to Russia plunged following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as investors fled the country over fears that sanctions would hobble the economy and hurt firms doing business there. After the invasion, the US and Europe employed widespread sanctions to cut off the Kremlin's war revenue. The moves forced many companies to exit the country and made doing business difficult for those that remained. The debt market has also responded to Trump's win, with Ukraine's dollar-denominated bonds <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/ukraine-bonds-trump-wins-us-election-russia-war-zelenskyy-2024-11?_gl=1*ty5p3r*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk5OTY0My4zNzYuMS4xNzMwOTk5NjQ1LjU4LjAuMA..">rallying since the election</a>. On Wednesday, bonds tied to Ukraine's GDP soared to their highest level since before the war began.Investors are hoping that Trump will follow through on pledges made during his campaign to help end the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for nearly three years. During his debate against Vice President Kamala Harris in September, Trump promised to settle the war even before becoming president and said he would speak to both Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin to work out a deal. In July, he said he could <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-wont-end-ukraine-war-in-a-day-russia-says-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*w77vj8*_ga*MTY3OTgyNjg0MS4xNzIxMDE2MDM2*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk5OTY0My4zNzYuMS4xNzMxMDAwMDY4LjYwLjAuMA..">end the conflict in less than a day</a>.Recent reports say Trump's advisors have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-advisors-peace-plans-ukraine-demilitarized-zone-no-aid-russia-2024-11">set out plans to end the war</a> with approaches like a demilitarized zone between the two countries.Analysts, though, have voiced concerns that Putin has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-no-hurry-end-ukraine-war-no-matter-wins-election-2024-11">more to gain from prolonging the war</a> than ending it, posing a challenge to any dealmaking efforts by Trump.In a <a target="_blank" href="https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1854073411904938032">post on X</a>, Zelenskyy congratulated the president-elect and appeared hopeful his term could change the war's trajectory."I appreciate President Trump's commitment to the 'peace through strength' approach in global affairs. This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer," Zelenskyy wrote.

Stocks tied to Russia rally as Trump's win fuels hopes for an end to the Ukraine war

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Clashes between Israel and Lebanon-based militia Hezbollah are intensifying.</li><li>Hezbollah may adopt tactics Russia used in Ukraine, experts told The Wall Street Journal.</li></ul>Hezbollah may use part of Russia's playbook in Ukraine to overwhelm Israel's air defenses.Military analysts expect Hezbollah will take inspiration from Vladimir Putin's forces to launch swarms of drones and mass missile attacks on Israel's air defenses, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/the-vast-hezbollah-arsenal-awaiting-israel-in-lebanon-99ce396c?st=2wWC2h&amp;reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink">according to The Wall Street Journal</a>.The Lebanon-based group could also target key military bases, ports, and the country's electrical grid, the publication said.It comes after Lebanon suffered its deadliest single day for decades on Monday. According to Lebanese health officials, Israeli strikes have killed 558 people and led thousands to flee for safety.Speculation is growing that Israel may be poised to launch a ground invasion of south Lebanon, but analysts say that Hezbollah has become <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hezbollah-israel-pager-attack-deaths-bomb-war-2024-9">a more powerful and sophisticated</a> force since its last war and can hit back hard in response.And if it decides to strike back against Israel, the example of Russia could prove valuable."It's not going to be a walk in the park," Assaf Orion, a retired brigadier general from the Israeli military told the Journal. "There's no way we're not getting a bloody nose."Hezbollah is believed to have been stockpiling missiles, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/coming-conflict-hezbollah">Center for Strategic and International Studies in a report in March </a>saying that it may have between 120,000 and 200,000 of the weapons.Mesrob Kassemdjian, a teaching fellow at the Department of Politics and International Studies at SOAS, University of London, told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/a-propos/20240923-hezbollah-s-response-could-overwhelm-israel-s-iron-dome-expert-says">France 24 that</a> Hezbollah has the capacity to strike targets deep inside Israel, including roads, military sites, and airfields."These kinds of strikes would come as part of a prolonged rocket barrage and potentially drone swarms, which could overwhelm the Israeli 'Iron Dome' system and leave Israel open to some critical hits in its territory," he said."So the conflict will enact the heavy toll, not only for Lebanon, but also for Israel."US and Israeli officials in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2024/06/20/politics/us-concerns-israel-iron-dome-hezbollah/index.html">June told CNN </a>that Hezbollah could likely breach Israel's Iron Dome air defenses in the north of the country, particularly with a large-scale attack using precision-guided missiles.Similarly, Russia has attacked Ukrainian cities and infrastructure with mass missile and drone strikes, in some cases overwhelming Ukrainian air defenses.Analysts say that Hezbollah has likely learned valuable lessons from working with the Russian military in Syria."Hezbollah apparently learned quite a bit from the Russian military, including the ability to conduct offensive maneuver warfare," said The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/countering-russias-strategy-arming-anti-american-proxies">Washington Institute for Near East Policy </a>in an August report.According to the report, support for groups like Hezbollah is part of the Kremlin's strategy of countering US power in the Middle East by strengthening its adversaries.And the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2023/11/21/politics/white-house-wagner-group-intelligence/index.html">US government last November </a>said that the Russian Wagner mercenary group may also have been preparing to supply Hezbollah with Russian Pantsir-1 air defense systems, in a further indication of strengthening ties between the militia and Russia.The latest round of conflict between Israel and militias aligned with its arch-foe Iran began <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-knew-hamas-plans-weeks-before-before-oct-7-report-2024-6">on October 7, </a>when Hamas launched terror attacks in Israel and Israeli forces invaded Gaza.Hezbollah launched missile attacks on northern Israel in solidarity with Hamas, while the US pledged support for Israel if attacked and the Kremlin shored up support for its regional allies.The Washington Institute said that in the wake of the October 7 terrorist attacks Russia had "aligned even more closely with destabilizing anti-American forces in the Middle East."

Hezbollah may copy tactics used by Russia in Ukraine to overwhelm Israel

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Violence is ongoing between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah, and Hamas in the Middle East.</li><li>The Kremlin is likely trying to exploit the tension to expand its influence, war analysts said.</li></ul>The Kremlin is likely trying to exploit the conflicts in the Middle East to expand its own influence, according to military experts.The Institute for the Study of War made the assessment in an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-october-2-2024">update</a> on Wednesday, as tensions flare up in the region between Israel, Iran, and the Lebanon-based Hezbollah militant group.According to the ISW, the Kremlin is likely using the conflict to advance Russia-led security institutions and build its own security architecture.It cited a slew of diplomatic statements and visits Russian officials had made with their Middle Eastern counterparts in recent days.Israel launched <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-faces-dilemma-how-far-go-army-lebanon-hezbollah-experts-2024-10">ground incursions</a> into Lebanon earlier this week after taking out Hezbollah's longtime chief, <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9">Hassan Nasrallah</a>, on September 27, as well as other top <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/hezbollah-lebanon-nasrallah-israel-8b2ae56a54d641c6910a79e9e5699824">Hezbollah officials</a>.In response, Iran launched a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">massive missile barrage</a> against Israel on Tuesday, firing close to 200 missiles, according to reports.Israel is now weighing up how to respond, with security experts saying an Israeli retaliation could come <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-not-worried-hezbollah-backlash-iran-counterattack-lebanon-strike-2024-10">within days</a>.Wall Street's main indexes <a target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer" class="c-link" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-fall-investors-await-labor-data-assess-middle-east-risk-2024-10-03/">opened lower</a> again on Thursday amid persistent worries that hostilities in the Middle East could escalate.For Russia, the unrest presents an opportunity to play a larger role in the region.During a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://t.me/MID_Russia/45939">meeting</a> with the Lebanese Ambassador to Russia on Tuesday, Mikhail Bogdanov, Russia's deputy foreign minister, voiced "strong" condemnation of the Israel Defense Forces' ground operation in southern Lebanon, and opposition to alleged Israeli political assassinations.Russia's ambassador to Israel, Anatoly Viktorov, meanwhile, called for an immediate cessation of hostilities, and for finding a diplomatic way out of the current situation, per Russian news agency TASS.It added that Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had met with the heads of diplomatic missions of unspecified Arab countries and called for the immediate end of military operations in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone.The ISW said some of Russia's efforts are to bring these countries into Russia's security sphere.It's not alone in seeing Russia trying to play a larger role in the region.In a March <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/how-middle-east-became-arena-putins-power-struggle-us">report</a>, The Washington Institute for Near East Policy said that Russia was using its defense ties in the Middle East to compete with the West, and that President Vladimir Putin believes he is fighting an "existential battle" with the US in an arena where he believes Russia can shape this competition.Alexander Libman, a professor of Russian and East European politics at the Free University of Berlin, said that Russia will try to use the situation to "strengthen its influence," most likely to position itself as an impartial intermediary."Russia clearly benefits from the war in the Middle East, at least since it distracts global attention from Ukraine," he added. "At the same time, besides rhetoric, I would not expect any more tangible activity besides pure rhetoric — Russia hardly has any resources for it."But for the West, he said, "the war in the Middle East means that it will be even more difficult to expand the coalition of countries supporting Ukraine or clearly condemning Russia."Mark N. Katz, a professor emeritus of government and politics at George Mason University, who writes about Russian foreign and security policy toward the Middle East, said he doesn't believe Russia wants to or can extend security guarantees to Middle Eastern countries, as it already has its "hands full" with the Ukraine war.Instead, he said, Russia is trying to "stay on good terms" with all the countries in the region, which he described as a "delicate balancing act."Russia "wants to appear relevant in the Middle East but not getting sucked in ongoing conflicts," he said.It's not the first time Russia has been accused of trying to use conflicts in the Middle East to advance its security interests in the region.Last week, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-helping-houthis-try-secure-russia-ship-missiles-red-sea-2024-9">Reuters</a> reported that Russian officials had met with the Houthis in Tehran at least twice this year to negotiate the sale of anti-ship missiles, which the militant group could use to attack ships in the Red Sea.Reuters based its reporting on Western and regional sources.According to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://jamestown.org/programs/rme/about/">Jamestown Foundation</a>, a defense policy think tank, Russia is also trying to form a working coalition or bloc with Iran, Iraq, and Syria, by acting as a broker in the Palestinian-Israeli conflict.It said it was trying, through these efforts, to regain major influence on Middle Eastern and Eastern Mediterranean gas sales, especially liquefied natural gas.Russia has also used its defense ties to some Middle Eastern countries to secure more weapons for its war in Ukraine, including Iranian short-range <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-struck-russian-ammo-depot-right-after-iranian-missiles-arrived-2024-9">ballistic missiles</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-iran-new-drone-may-cause-issues-ukraine-air-defenses-2024-1">Shahed drones</a>.

Russia is likely trying to exploit the conflict in the Middle East to expand its influence, war experts say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>South Korea's UN ambassador says North Korean soldiers will become "cannon fodder" in Ukraine.</li><li>North Korea is believed to have sent thousands of troops to aid in the Russian war effort.</li></ul>North Korean troops headed to fight in Ukraine will "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://overseas.mofa.go.kr/un-en/brd/m_26611/view.do?seq=236&amp;page=1">end up as mere cannon fodder,</a>" Joonkook Hwang, the South Korean ambassador to the UN, said on Wednesday.Hwang was speaking at a UN Security Council briefing in New York on the Russian invasion of Ukraine when he referenced North Korea's involvement in the conflict.North Korea is believed to have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-appears-show-north-korean-soldiers-gearing-up-in-russia-2024-10">sent thousands of troops</a> to aid Russia in its war against Ukraine, per officials from South Korea, Ukraine, and the US."As legitimate military targets, they will end up as mere cannon fodder, while the wages they are supposed to receive from Russia will end up squarely in Kim Jong-un's pocket," Hwang said of the Russia-bound North Korean troops."Pyongyang's treatment of its young soldiers, its own people, as expendable will be never forgiven," he added.<h2 id="6819f287-8f30-4c78-ade2-cfd85a4bf5b5">'Cannon fodder'</h2>The news of North Korea's troops joining Russian troops comes as Russia has struggled to find the manpower for its military. It has turned to tactics like offering significant <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-military-troops-new-recruits-ukraine-bonus-high-death-rate-2024-7">signing bonuses</a> — as high as 1.9 million rubles, or about $22,000 — and turning to its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/26/russia-prison-population-convicts-war/">prison population</a> to fuel its war effort.Hwang's prediction of the fate that awaits North Korean troops echoes comments Ukraine and the US have made over the course of the war.In April 2022, Ukraine's defense ministry said Russia was <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-russia-failing-recruit-new-troops-fear-being-cannon-fodder-2022-4">having trouble conscripting troops</a> because people didn't want "to become cannon fodder for the occupier's army."In June, the Pentagon said North Korean soldiers will become "<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-troops-ukraine-aiding-russia-cannon-fodder-pentagon-2024-6">cannon fodder</a>" if they are sent to aid the Russian war effort.Russia has come to rely more on its allies as it sustains its war in Ukraine. Facing a shortage of arms, Russia has turned to countries like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-beg-north-korea-for-weapons-uk-defense-secretary-2024-1">North Korea</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-appears-to-run-out-deadly-iranian-made-drones-ukraine-2022-12">Iran</a> for weapons.In June, Russian leader Vladimir Putin signed a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-kim-jong-un-pact-russia-north-korea-authoritarian-world-2024-6">wartime pact</a> with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. The agreement stands to open up another source of war supplies and ammunition to Russia."With boots on the ground alongside the supply of munitions, the DPRK has become the most visible, ardent, and committed supporter of Russia's aggression in Europe," Hwang said on Wednesday.The war in Ukraine has now passed the two-and-a-half-year mark. As Russia continues to wage war, it faces a slew of problems at home, including inflation, currency issues, and a demographic crisis.Wartime spending is propping up Russia's economy, with some economists <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-currency-inflation-budget-2024-9">saying</a> the war is the only thing keeping the country from entering an immediate recession.Representatives for South Korea's mission to the UN did not respond to requests for comment from Business Insider.

North Korean troops will become 'cannon fodder' if they join Russia's war against Ukraine, South Korea says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said Ukraine will be forced to fight against North Korean troops.</li><li>Zelenskky made the comments during an evening address posted to Telegram.</li></ul>Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said that Ukraine will be forced to fight against North Korean troops should they enter the conflict.<a target="_blank" href="https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/12205https://t.me/V_Zelenskiy_official/12205">In an evening address posted on Telegram</a>, Zelenskyy said North Korean forces could appear on the battlefield "any day now.""Ukraine will be forced to actually fight against North Korea in Europe," he said, adding: "These are the conditions when the lack of partners' stronger decisions in support of Ukraine only encourages Putin to invest further in terror."Zelenskyy also called on Western allies to ramp up pressure on Russia, saying he expected more support.Earlier this week, Zelenskyy said Ukrainian intelligence expected North Korean troops to be deployed to combat zones as soon as October 27 to 28, labeling it "a clear escalation by Russia."It follows <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/north-korea-to-send-thousands-troops-aid-russia-ukraine-2024">intelligence reports from South Korea's National Intelligence Service (NIS)</a> last week that said the North was preparing to send thousands of troops to Russia to support Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces.The US and NATO both later confirmed that they had evidence of North Korean troops in Russia.White House spokesperson John Kirby said this week that the US believed North Korea had shipped at least 3,000 soldiers to eastern Russia, where they were undergoing training."If North Korean soldiers do enter into combat, this development would demonstrate Russia's growing desperation in its war against Ukraine," Kirby said.On Monday, a South Korean delegation is set to brief NATO on the situation, with Mark Rutte, the Secretary General of the alliance, due to give a statement to media following the meeting.

Zelenskyy says Ukraine will be forced to fight against North Korea as he calls on allies to increase pressure on Russia  

<keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s <keyword id="19938893" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="defence-exports" source="keywords">defence exports</keyword> have surged from Rs 15 billion in 2017 to Rs 210 billion in 2024, registering a CAGR of 46 per cent, highlighted a report on 'Defence Conference 3.0' by Antique Stock Broking. The report stated that the <keyword id="20861069" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-shift" source="keywords">global shift</keyword> towards a China+1 strategy and the impact of the <keyword id="20016971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Russia-Ukraine-war" source="keywords">Russia-Ukraine war</keyword> offer India additional opportunities to fill supply chain gaps, potentially boosting its share in the <keyword id="23046732" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-defence-industry" source="keywords">global defence industry</keyword>. The report noted that the country's long-term goal is to become a global defence manufacturing hub is driven by Defence Public Sector Undertakings (DPSUs), private enterprises, start-ups, and MSMEs. "Indian defence exports have grown multi-fold from INR 15 bn in 2017 to INR 210 bn in 2024 at a CAGR of 46%. The China + 1 strategy and the Russia-Ukraine war provides an additional opportunity for India to fill the gap created in the supply chain and hence increase its contribution to the global defence industry," the report read. The report added that to achieve this target a well-developed domestic ecosystem is crucial as lower import content in products accelerates approvals by reducing international conflicts. The report added that the Ministry of Defence has taken key initiatives to attract Indian private players and global Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) include establishing aerospace parks and defence corridors, fast-tracking project approvals, and enhancing development and testing facilities. Highlighting the potential in India's Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul (MRO) segment the report explained that it holds a significant potential for global aerospace companies due to its technical expertise and cost-competitive solutions. "India provides a huge opportunity in the <keyword id="23046733" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="MRO-segment" source="keywords">MRO segment</keyword> for global aerospace leaders given the expertise the country provides as well as the cost efficiency solutions compared to its global competitors" the report added. India aims to increase domestic defence turnover to Rs 3 lac crore by 2029, Rs 500 billion targeted for exports. This growth will help reduce the Government of India's import bill as India remains the world's largest importer of defence equipment. Under the Atmanirbhar Bharat initiative of the government, 75 per cent of the defence capital outlay is now reserved for domestic players, up from 49 per cent in FY21. Given the geopolitical challenges and modernisation needs of its Armed Forces, the report added that India plans to invest Rs 8.3 lac crore in domestic procurement, offering substantial business opportunities for local companies. "India intends to place orders worth INR 8.3 trn through domestic procurement and thus it presents a massive business opportunity for local players" it added. As per the Ministry of Defence, India's defence manufacturing sector has witnessed an increase of 16.8 per cent in the fiscal year 2023-24. This significant increase marks the highest-ever growth in the country's defence production value. The total value of defence production reached Rs 1,26,887 crore this year, up from the previous year's figures.

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