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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="6357856" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="Greece">Greece</keyword> and <keyword id="6372909" type="LOCATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="turkey">Turkey</keyword> are at odds over a disputed patch of the <keyword id="100278" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Mediterranean-sea">Mediterranean Sea</keyword> and the rights to resources it may hold.</li><li>The dispute isn't new, but tensions are rising, and an armed clash between two <keyword id="6371298" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="NATO">NATO</keyword> allies isn't something the alliance or the US has had to deal with before.</li></ul><p>In the last month, Greece and Turkey, two US and NATO allies, have repeatedly come close to a military clash over a piece of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea.</p><h2>Background</h2><p>The latest tension ignited after Turkey reserved an area in the Eastern Mediterranean to survey for underwater natural resources. But the area is within the exclusive economic zones of Cyprus and Greece (though Greece hasn't formally declared an EEZ due to tensions with Turkey).</p><p>Turkey disputes Greek sovereignty and has deployed the research vessel Oruç Reis to the region with a fleet of warships to guard it. Greece has responded by sending its fleet.</p><div type="image" title="Oruc Reis and Turkish warships" height="600" width="960" msid="77774344" hostid="261"></div><p>Despite the Turkish claims, and according to international law, the area of sea in question and the seabed under it belong to Greece because of the small island of Kastellorizo.</p><p>Although the island is about 2 miles from Turkey, it is inhabited and part of Greece. Thus, according to the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), Kastellorizo has the same rights as any other part of Greece.</p><p>Although the US <a href="https://www.ekathimerini.com/249739/article/ekathimerini/news/pyatt-islands-entitled-to-eez-continental-shelf" target="_top">acknowledges the validity of the Greek position</a>, it will not take sides in the dispute because of its close relationship with both countries.</p><div type="image" title="Greece Turkey Kastellorizo" height="982" width="2036" msid="77774345" hostid="261"></div><p>The two fleets have been circling one another as tensions simmer, threatening to explode with the slightest accident, such as one a few days ago when Turkish frigate Kemal Reis tried to overtake Greek frigate Limnos.</p><p>Due to poor seamanship, however, the Turkish vessel did not calculate its path correctly and was rammed by the Greek warship. Although the damage was not life-threatening, the Turkish ship had to go into port for immediate repairs.</p><h2>Geopolitical situation</h2><div type="image" title="Turkey Kemal Reis Greece collision" height="600" width="960" msid="77774346" hostid="261"></div><p>Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has calculated that this is the opportune time to act. Indeed, the international stars seem to be aligned in his country's favor.</p><p>First, the US is heading toward a heated presidential election, which has historically distracted American attention from foreign affairs.</p><p>Second, Erdogan has a close relationship with the White House and has used it to reassure its ally.</p><p>Third, Ankara is shrewdly using Germany's current presidency of the EU Council, which rotates between EU members every six months.</p><div type="image" title="merkel erdogan turkey germany" height="1994" width="3500" msid="77774347" hostid="261"></div><p>Germany and Turkey share a lucrative trade partnership. According to the <a href="https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/TUR/Year/2018/TradeFlow/EXPIMP" target="_top">World Bank</a>, in 2018, Germany exported almost $20.5 billion worth of goods to Turkey and imported just over $16 billion, making Berlin third in both imports and exports among Ankara's trading partners. There is also a significant ethnic Turkish population in Germany that influences German politicians' decision-making.</p><p>Despite its relatively weak global voice, Berlin is a leader in Europe, mostly because of its powerful economy, and has assumed the role of an umpire in this dispute.</p><p>The Greek position is to abide by international law, which is on its side, and meet every Turkish provocation with determination and force. Meanwhile, Greek diplomacy has managed to isolate Turkey, with a host of nations — including Egypt, Cyprus, and Israel — condemning Turkey's actions. The US and France have conducted military drills with Greece in the area as a show of solidarity. (The US and Turkey have <a href="https://www.facebook.com/USNavalForcesEuropeAfrica/posts/10160323533148916" target="_blank" rel="noopener">also conducted</a> recent exercises.)</p><p>Crucially, Greece's chief of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Constantine Floros, has said that a Greek response to a Turkish attack would not be confined to a particular area, likely making Turkish officials think twice before acting.</p><div type="image" title="Greek navy frigate" height="1667" width="2500" msid="77774349" hostid="261"></div><p>The Turkish position is to force Greece to the negotiating table — something, interestingly, that Greece also wants and has looked for since Turkey unilaterally stopped diplomatic discussions on the issue in 2016.</p><p>Ankara understands that its position in terms of international law is weak and its allies in the region few. Thus it believes that threatening war would make Greece more amenable to an agreement that gives Turkey a slice of the natural resources pie.</p><p>Turkey does not recognize the International Court of Justice or UNCLOS, both of which would be key in settling the dispute.</p><h2>Implications for the US</h2><div type="image" title="FILE PHOTO: U.S. President Donald Trump reaches to Turkey's President Tayyip Erdogan during a joint news conference at the White House in Washington, U.S., November 13, 2019. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo" height="3467" width="5625" msid="77774350" hostid="261"></div><p>The implications for the US and for NATO of a conflict between two members of the alliance are hard to judge. There has never been an incident where two NATO allies came to blows.</p><p>US-Turkish relations have been steadily deteriorating in recent years. Turkey's purchase the advanced Russian S-400 anti-aircraft system prompted the US to refuse delivery of the F-35 fighter jet. The Turkish invasion of northern Syria and targeting of the Kurds, a longtime US partner and a leader in the fight against ISIS, led to sanctions against senior Turkish officials and to tariffs on Turkish steel.</p><p>Moreover, the recent <a href="https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/08/13/turkey-grants-citizenship-hamas-operatives-plotting-terror-attacks/" target="_top">revelation</a> that Ankara has been providing Turkish citizenship and passports to Hamas operatives is bound to further upset US-Turkish relations. The US declared Hamas a terrorist organization in 1997. The passports offer great freedom of travel to Hamas terrorists, aiding their malign activities.</p><p>Adding insult to injury, Erdogan recently <a href="https://www.state.gov/president-erdogans-meeting-with-hamas-leadership/" target="_top">hosted two senior Hamas leaders</a> the US has branded Specially Designated Global Terrorists.</p><div type="image" title="Navy Turkey frigates" height="1207" width="1813" msid="77774351" hostid="261"></div><p>The US does not want to push Turkey toward Russia or Iran, and successive US administrations have recognized the country's value to US interests in the region, both in its general location and in the assets based there, like the nuclear missiles in Incirlik Air Base.</p><p>Yet if Turkey needs to be pushed to change its behavior — as its actions suggest it would be — then the US will have to rethink the geopolitical balance in the region.</p><p>Erdogan understands and takes advantage of his country's strategic importance to the US, leveraging it to pursue an increasingly pugnacious foreign policy that often directly conflicts with the US's.</p><p>If it comes to blows, the US and EU will call for an immediate end to the hostilities but probably do little more than that. It's likely, then, that Greece and Turkey will sort it out between themselves, with the lasting geopolitical implications only becoming clear once the smoke has cleared.</p><p><em>Stavros Atlamazoglou is a defense journalist specializing in special operations, a Hellenic Army veteran (National Service with the 575th Marine Battalion &amp; Army HQ), and a Johns Hopkins University graduate.</em></p>

A simmering crisis between 2 allies could create a new headache for the US in a volatile region

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Syrian President Bashar al-Assad (R) welcomes then-Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Damascus, December 22, 2004.</p></div><p></p></div></div>In the past month, Turkey has moved to normalized relations with Israel, Russia, and now - according to co<span>mments made by Turkey's new prime minister, as well as </span><a href="http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/07/12/turkeys-deep-state-has-a-secret-backchannel-to-assad/">a Foreign Policy report</a> published Wednesday - with the Assad regime in Syria.</p><p><span>"It is our greatest and irrevocable goal: Developing good relations with Syria and Iraq, and all our neighbors that surround the Mediterranean and the Black Sea," Prime Minister Binali Yildirim said on Wednesday.</span></p><p><span><span>"We normalized relations with Russia and Israel," Yildirim added. "I'm sure we will normalize our relations with Syria as well. For the fight against terrorism to succeed, stability needs to return to Syria and Iraq.</span></span></p><p>A new report published the same day in Foreign Policy claims that two members of Turkey's Homeland Party - a nationalist movement "<span>with an anti-Western and anti-American platform" - have been meeting with Syrian government officials over the past year to discuss<span> "how to prepare the ground for Turkey and Syria to resume diplomatic relations and political cooperation."</span></span></p><p><span>They say they have been relaying the outcomes of these meetings, moreover, to high-ranking Turkish military and Foreign Ministry officials.</span></p><p>Still, experts are divided over how plausible it is that Ankara - which has been one of the staunchest opponents to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad since breaking diplomatic ties with his government in 2011 - would attempt to mend its relationship with a leader it has been actively working against for the last five years. </p><p>Aykan Erdemir, a former member of Turkish parliament and now a senior fellow at the Foundation for <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Defense">Defense</keyword> of Democracies, said that rumors of a "reset" with Syria are entirely plausible.</p><p>"Turkey is going through a foreign policy reset," Erdemir told Business Insider on Wednesday. "Following change of course vis-a-vis Israel, Russia, and the UAE, the next steps will be Syria and Egypt."</p><h2><span><span>'It would be unprecedented'</span></span></h2><p><span><span>Still, others are skeptical that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) would undertake such a "seismic" foreign-policy shift at such a politically sensitive moment - even if, as the Foreign Policy report and comments from Turkish officials suggest, the Turkish leader is looking for allies against its Kurdish foes.</span></span></p><p><span><span><span>"The consensus is that Turkey is reevaluating its approach to Assad, in order to prevent [Kurdish] PYD independence, or democratic autonomy," Aaron Stein, an expert on Turkey and </span><span>Resident Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council's Rafik Hariri Center for the Middle East, told Business Insider on Wednesday.</span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span><span>"There may indeed been a strain of thinking in the Turkish government that thinks this way, but there is also a pervasive feeling that the country is winning its own war against the [Kurdish] PKK, and that Rojava can be coerced in the longer term," Stein added, referring to the Kurds' self-declared autonomos region of Rojava in northern Syria.</span></span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Umit Bektas/Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Erdogan and top military officials attend the funeral of the two pilots of an F-4 jet shot down by forces loyal to the Assad regime in June 2012.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span></span></span></span>Michael Koplow, <span>policy director of the Israel Policy Forum and analyst of Middle Eastern <keyword id="6358883" type="PERSON" weightage="100" keywordseo="Politics">politics</keyword> and US foreign policy, largely agreed.</span></p><p><span>"No doubt there are nationalist politicians and groups that view Assad as a lesser evil than the [Kurdish] PYD, and I am sure that some of them are talking to the Assad regime," Koplow <span>told Business Insider.</span></span></p><p><span>"But even with [former prime minister] Davutoglu - who was the architect of Turkey's Syria policy - gone from the scene, I find it difficult to envision a scenario in which Turkey's policy toward Assad would change wholesale," Koplow added.<span> </span></span></p><p><span>Ahmet Davuto<span>g</span>lu served as Turkey's Minister of Foreign Affairs until he became prime minister in 2014. He resigned from his post in May under pressure from Erdogan and the AKP.</span></p><p><span>"Turkey has insisted for five years that Assad is the root cause of not only the Syrian conflict itself but the rise of ISIS and the consequent empowerment of the Kurds, and to suddenly repudiate the core belief driving everything it has done with regard to Syria would be unprecedented."</span></p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Thomson Reuters</span></p><p class="caption">Turkish Prime Minister Erdogan listens as U.S. President Obama addresses a joint news conference at the White House in Washington</p></div><p></p></div></div><span>Jonathan Schanzer, an expert on Turkey and vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, noted that it would be difficult for Erdogan to rationalize the policy U-turn to Turkey's Sunni Arab allies, who have become heavily invested in ousting Assad and arming his opposition.</span></p><p><span>"It's plausible in phases, but it can't happen overnight," Schanzer said, referring a possible reset between Ankara and Damascus. W<span>hether it be toward Israel, Russia, or the Assad regime, Schanzer noted, </span>"Turkey </span> <span>is now trying to retreat from its more hostile postures - likely at the US' urging - because it is realizing that its 'A</span><span>rab Spring' foreign policy has failed."</span></p><p><span>Stein also noted the role the US may be playing, whether explicitly or implicitly, in encouraging Turkey to soften its stance on the embattled Syrian president. The Obama administration has been steadily shifting away from "Assad must go" and working more closely with the Russians, resulting in Turkey being largely "</span><span>cut out of the negotiations about the [Syrian political] transition," Stein said.</span></p><p><span>"Russia and the United States negotiate bilaterally and are then expected to account for the actions of their respected camps, with Turkey falling under the US umbrella. Turkey can clearly read the tea leaves and knows what the US priority is and is now acting accordingly."</span></p><h2>From ideology to security</h2><p><span><span><span><span><span><span><a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/author/yusuf-muftuoglu" data-beacon="{" p:lnid:author="">Yusuf Muftuoglu</a>, a f</span></span><span>ormer adviser to Erdogan's predecessor, Abdullah Gül, <a href="http://www.huffingtonpost.com/yusuf-muftuoglu/salafi-extremism-turkey_b_10814254.html">argued in The Huffington Post last week that Turkey's posture had</a> boomeranged back with negative consequences. </span></span></span></span></span></p><p><span><span><span><span><span>Muftuoglu claimed that Turkey's "normalization of Salafi extremism" has come back to haunt the country, in the form of deep-rooted ISIS networks poised to launch spectacular terror attacks in major Turkish cities.</span></span></span></span></span></p><div><p>"For years, Turkey <a href="http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/publications/issue-briefs/turkey-s-syria-predicament" target="_hplink" data-beacon="{" p:mnid:entry_textlnid:citationmpid:0="">supported Salafi </a>factions, whose exact composition and overall aims it did not bother to find out too much about, just because they fought" Assad, Muftuoglu wrote last week.</p><p><span>Turkey was long accused by the international community of turning a blind eye to the weapons and fighters crossing its border into Syria to fight forces loyal to Assad. As those actors turned militant, they began clashing with Syrian Kurd</span><span>s and became useful to </span><span>Ankara,</span><span> which </span><span>has sought to halt the Kurds' territorial expansion along Turkey's southern border.</span></p><p>Muftuoglu continued:</p><p><span> Essentially, Muftuoglu said, "the support given to the Syrian opposition from Turkey became support for an Islamist agenda, and in the face of the main enemy, Iran, it was, in time, transformed into a sectarian, Sunni discourse."</span></p><p>Erdemir, of the FDD, noted that a reset with Damascus would make sense in light of <span>Ankara's shift away from "an ideological orientation to a security orientation."</span></p><p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters/Murad Sezer</span></p><p class="caption">Airport employees attend a ceremony for their friends, who were killed in Tuesday's attack at the airport, at the international departure terminal of Ataturk airport in Istanbul, Turkey, June 30, 2016.</p></div><p></p></div></div></span><span>As it faces threats from ISIS and the insurgent Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) and struggles to accommodate the more than 2 million refugees that have resettled on Turkish soil, Erdogan is "<span>back-stepping from his Islamist stance" and relinquishing "</span></span><span><span>neo-Ottoman adventurism" in favor of a more pragmatic and realpolitik approach, Erdemir said.</span></span></p><p>"For Erdogan, this is simply a survival strategy," Erdemir said. "<span>This is like a barter. He gives up the AKP's foreign policy priorities in exchange for his personal survival in domestic politics."</span></p><p><span>Koplow, however, remains unconvinced. <span></span></span></p><p><span><span>"It would be highly odd and run counter to everything we have seen of Erdogan and the AKP for a small group of staunch Kemalists to be at the vanguard of a seismic foreign policy shift under this particular government," he said.</span></span></p><p><span><span>"Between the prime ministerial shakeup, the removal of Hakan Fidan as chief of Turkish intelligence, and the rapprochement with Russia and Israel, Turkey has tacitly acknowledged its past foreign policy errors. But I don't think patching things up with Assad is going to be a part of the new program."</span></span></p></div>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/david-cameron-announces-resignation-brexit-eu-2016-6">Watch David Cameron announce his resignation after the UK voted to leave EU</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="Fib3hjNDE6KI7_ykNnJxAghsI1o58fj8" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

Turkey is undergoing a 'foreign policy reset' - and it could have 'unprecedented' consequences

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Nashir</span></p><p class="caption">An ISIS militant with an ISIS flag.</p></div><p></p></div></div>As ISIS loses ground in the Middle East, it might step up spectacular attacks on foreign countries in order to create the perception that it is winning, experts say.</p><p>The Friday-night attacks in Paris, in which terrorists killed 129 people and injured hundreds more as they <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/heres-a-timeline-for-the-attacks-on-paris-that-killed-129-people-2015-11">took hostages, detonated suicide vests, and shot people across the city</a>, could have been a move to distract from <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/obama-isis-contained-2015-11">the losses ISIS (also known as the Islamic State) has taken in its core base of support</a>.</p><p>"If an extremist group that has seized territory starts to lose it, it will be highly incentivized to turn to terrorist operations that allow for maximizing effects at a lower cost," Clint Watts, a fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute and former Army infantry officer, <a href="http://warontherocks.com/2015/11/what-paris-taught-us-about-the-islamic-state/">wrote for War on the Rocks</a>.</p><p>Watts continued:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;" data-incom="P5">The Islamic State propelled its recruitment and resourcing over the past three years by sustaining the initiative, growing its state through battlefield successes and acquisitions. But the group has now peaked: It is losing territory, many of its fighters are dying in battle, defections from their ranks continue to increase, recruitment flows are slower and smaller, and new regional Islamic State affiliates in countries like Libya and Egypt now provide a range of options for potential recruits to join a group locally rather than travel to Syria.</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;" data-incom="P6">To sustain its brand and supporting global fan base, the Islamic State needs to show success. If it cannot achieve battlefield victories and broadcast them on social media, then its affiliates and global network need to pick up the slack with terrorist attacks that capture the imagination of mass media.</p><p>Other experts have echoed this assessment.</p><p>The Paris attack "strikes at those who are fighting [ISIS]," Daveed Gartenstein-Ross, a counterterrorism analyst and senior fellow at the Foundation for <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="60" keywordseo="Defense">Defense</keyword> of Democracies, told Business Insider over the weekend. "It increases their prestige in the jihadist movement, thus diminishing Al Qaeda and raising ISIS's stature. It energizes their base, it presents this perception of a [win] particularly when they've been losing ground in their caliphate holdings."</p><p>Will McCants, an expert on jihadist groups and author of the recent book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-ISIS-Apocalypse-Strategy-Doomsday/dp/1250080908?tag=bisafetynet-20">"The ISIS Apocalypse,"</a> told Business Insider on Friday that ISIS might try to retake territory to offset its losses, and that the US-led anti-ISIS coalition's recent efforts in the region could "damage ... its claim to be continually expanding."</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Over the weekend, he pointed out that ISIS has also carried out other high-profile attacks against its foreign enemies in recent weeks. The group has also claimed responsibility for the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/isis-propaganda-coup-russia-plane-2015-11" target="_blank">downing of a Russian passenger plane over Egypt at the end of October</a> and for suicide bombings against Hezbollah in Lebanon.</p><p>"All of that suggests that ISIS wants to put pressure on those governments," McCants said on Saturday.</p><p>ISIS's strategy to expand its caliphate and mount spectacular attacks on its enemies in the West plays into the group's grand plan to drag the West into a final apocalyptic showdown in Dabiq, Syria.</p><p>"In a prophecy attributed to Muhammad, the Prophet predicts the Day of Judgment will come after the Muslims defeat Rome at al-Amaq or Dabiq, two places close to the Syrian border with Turkey," McCants <a href="http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/markaz/posts/2014/10/03-isis-apocalyptic-showdown-syria-mccants">wrote for the Brookings Institution</a> last year. ("Rome" could be understood to mean Western nations in general.)</p><p>In his book, McCants further <a href="http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/08/isis-jihad-121525">explained the apocalyptic fervor of ISIS</a>:</p><p style="padding-left: 30px;">The US invasion of Iraq and the stupendous violence that followed dramatically increased the Sunni public's appetite for apocalyptic explanations of a world turned upside down. A spate of bestsellers put the United States at the center of the End-Times drama, a new 'Rome' careering throughout the region in a murderous stampede to prevent violence on its own shores. The main antagonists of the End of Days, the Jews, were now merely supporting actors. Even conservative Sunni clerics who had previously tried to tamp down messianic fervor couldn't help but conclude that 'the triple union constituted by the Antichrist, the Jews, and the new Crusaders' had joined forces 'to destroy the Muslims.'</p><p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"><p class="source"><span>Reuters</span></p></div><p></p></div></div></p><p>Shadi Hamid, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, also mentioned ISIS's apocalyptic vision in light of the Paris attacks.</p><p>"ISIS and its ilk want to fashion a clash of civilizations," Hamid <a href="http://www.cnn.com/2015/11/16/opinions/defeating-isis-roundup/index.html">told CNN</a>. They want this to be 'us versus them.' They want to exploit growing anti-Muslim and anti-refugee sentiment to push a narrative that French Muslims and Western Muslims more generally will never be fully accepted by their countrymen."</p><p>He continued: "ISIS is <a href="http://media.clarionproject.org/files/islamic-state/islamic-state-dabiq-magazine-issue-7-from-hypocrisy-to-apostasy.pdf" target="_blank" onclick="CNN.Analytics.utils.clickEventTracker(event, 'hpt=cGFnZV8xNGNvbF9vcGluaW9uc19hcnRpY2xlX3pvbmUtMS0wX2JvZHlUZXh0X25vLXZhbHVlLXNldF9uby12YWx1ZS1zZXQ=;hpt2=cGFnZV8xNGNvbF9vcGluaW9uc19hcnRpY2xlX3pvbmUtMS0wX3Vua25vd24gbmFtZV9uby12YWx1ZS1zZXRfbm8tdmFsdWUtc2V0')">rather clear about this intent</a>: They wish to extinguish the 'gray zone' and provoke a sort of apocalyptic world war, where Muslims are forced to choose sides."</p><p>As Russia, France, and the US become more deeply involved in Middle East, increasing airstrikes in Syria and in some cases sending in ground forces, ISIS recruits more and more people with the message that they're fighting the "infidels" in the West as a means to fulfill a centuries-old prophecy.</p><p>And Hamid cautioned against bargaining with dictators like Bashar al-Assad, the president of Syria, who has resorted to attacking and bombing civilians as he struggles to maintain power.</p><p>"Perhaps these politicians are unaware that the point of terrorism is to provoke target populations to do things they otherwise wouldn't do," Hamid said. "Let's start by not doing it for them."</p>    <div class="margin-top">        <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trumps-2013-vine-account-anthony-weiner-social-media-2015-11">We unearthed Donald Trump's Vine account from 2013 and it's incredible</a></h3>        <div>            <div>        <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="RtbG9sdjpZE-Z3SmLTrsCk6KUBZZyN22" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div>        </div>        </div>            </div>

How fighting ISIS in its stronghold is accelerating its attacks around the world

<p></p>
<p>With Iran-assisted Houthi rebels <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/yemens-leader-just-surrendered-the-presidential-palace-to-iran-backed-rebels-2015-1">surrounding the presidential palace</a>, kidnapping the presidential chief of staff, and opening fire on an American diplomatic vehicle, the entire Yemeni cabinet, the vice president, and president acknowledged the reality that they are no longer in any meaningful control of the country.</p>
<p>The situation in Yemen is remarkably complex: The Houthis are Shi'ite Muslims allied with Iran, but aren't directed by Tehran to the degree that Iran's Lebanese or Iraqi proxies are; Houtis also adhere to a different cultural and ideological strain of Shi'ite Islam than does Iran's revolutionary regime.</p>
<p>Yemen's long running geographic cleavage -a fault-line in a 1990s civil war - may result in the south seceding, returning Yemen to the state of disunity that <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Yemen">endured between 1967 and 1990</a>. </p>
<p>But one short-term consequence is already clear enough: Hadi's resignation means the US has lost one of its most cooperative counter-terrorism partners in the Middle East, in a country that's <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/al-qaeda-is-back-in-big-way-2015-1">home to the western branch of Al Qaeda Central.</a> And it's unclear who or what will replace him.</p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">Hadi came from a military background and served as Vice President under Ali Abdullah Saleh for 17 years, assuming the presidency when Saleh resigned amid widespread protests in early 2012. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;"><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>Despite his high office, Hadi was </span><a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2012/0227/Profile-Yemen-s-new-president-Abed-Rabbo-Mansour-Hadi">an unknown figure for most people in Yemen</a><span style="font-size: 15px; line-height: 1.5em;">. He was viewed as someone experienced enough to plausibly lead the country, yet obscure enough to pass as a consensus figure within a badly fractured political environment.</span></p>
<p>He was tasked with holding the country together during Yemen's post-Saleh national dialogue and constitutional reform process.</p>
<p>A <a href="http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis/view/fighting-al-qaeda-the-role-of-yemens-president-saleh">far less conniving figure than the notoriously slippery Saleh</a>, Hadi never had the complete loyalty of the security services, parts of which remained aligned to elements of the former regime.</p>
<p>Hadi did have one clear objective in his foreign relations: Enlisting <keyword id="6356001" type="COMPANY" weightage="60" keywordseo="international">international</keyword> (particularly American) assistance in the fight against Al Qaeda.</p>
<p>As <a href="http://www.yemenpeaceproject.org/">Yemen Peace Project</a> executive director William Picard <a href="http://www.yemenpeaceproject.org/blogpost/analysis-commentary/hadi-and-his-friends-part-i/">noted in a Sept. 28, 2012 blog post</a>, Hadi's speech at the opening of the UN General Assembly that week - his highest-profile international visit since becoming president that February - framed nearly all of the country's various political and economic problems purely in terms of security. </p>
<p>In an <a href="%20http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/09/29/yemens-president-warns-of-a-civil-war-worse-than-afghanistan/">interview with journalists from the Washington Post and Foreign Policy</a> that same week, Hadi improbably claimed that he personally approved US drone-strike targets and "marveled" at the US's drone technology, <span>describing it as "more advanced than the human brain."</span></p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div>For Picard, Hadi's emphasis on security during this crucial US visit conveyed the true state of relations between the Arab world's poorest country and Washington. "The president of Yemen firmly believes that security and counter-terrorism are America's only concerns in Yemen, and the only causes that will draw American (financial) assistance," he wrote. "And if that's what President Hadi believes - after a week of meeting with high-level US and international officials - I think we should take his word for it."</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 1.5em;">Hadi launched two major offensives against Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula, in 2012 and the spring of 2014. The US State Department's <a href="http://www.state.gov/j/ct/rls/crt/2012/209982.htm">Country Report on Terrorism</a> for 2012 called Hadi "a strong US counter-terror partner" and lauded his attempts to reform the country's security apparatus. Yemen was <a href="http://www.thewire.com/politics/2014/09/watch-obama-isil-speech-live/380010/">held up as a model</a> for effective counter-terror cooperation during President Barack Obama's Sept 10, 2014 speech announcing the start of military operations against ISIS.</span><span style="line-height: 1.5em;"></span></p>
<p><span>But Hadi was faced with problems that he couldn't solve, and that maybe no Yemeni leader could solve. Though tactical successes, the offensives did little to permanently erode Al Qaeda's foothold in the Yemeni periphery. The Shi'ite Houthi rebels, who had fought six wars against the Sa'ana government in the previous decade, were using the country's vacuum to advance their own, daunting range of political, social, and sectarian grievances. And the Yemeni state was simply too dysfunctional and too weak to handle it all.</span></p>
<p><span><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image"></div><p></p></div></div></span></p>
<p>"Hadi did as much as he could to combat Al Qaeda's presence in Yemen," Oren Adaki, a research analyst at the Foundation for <keyword id="6354810" type="ORGANIZATION" weightage="100" keywordseo="Defense">Defense</keyword> of Democracies, told Business Insider. "But the problem wasn't Hadi or his unwillingness to help out. The problem was the failures of the Yemeni state and the Yemeni system that were there before Hadi came to power."</p>
<p>Hadi's willingness to cooperate so closely with the US may have lessened his legitimacy inside of Yemen and made it harder to deal with the country's other issues. He was also indecisive on a few major points: for instance, he never exiled or imprisoned his predecessor Saleh, who remained in the country and has been c<a href="http://english.alarabiya.net/en/perspective/analysis/2014/10/23/Eyeing-return-Yemen-s-ousted-Saleh-helps-Houthis-.html">redibly accused of assisting</a> the same Houthi rebels he once fought as president. And Hadi oversaw a state-building process that inevitably failed.</p>
<p>But with an Iranian-aligned group holding much of the power in Yemen, and Al Qaeda primed to take advantage of the country's even more gaping power vacuum, officials in Washington may start to miss him anyway.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Washington's other partners in the region are offered jarring proof that even close counter-terror cooperation with the US isn't enough to preserve their rule.</p>

The US Just Lost One Of Its Top Counter-Terror Partners In The Middle East

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container"><div class="image"><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32"></a><p class="source"><span><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/">Council on Foreign Relations</a></span></p><p class="caption">Click map to see interactive version.</p></div><p></p></div>Several of the <a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32">2014 geopolitical risks that could affect the U.S.</a> that the Council on Foreign Relations warned about in December are already happening.</p>
<p>Political unrest in Ukraine, rated moderate likelihood, moderate impact, has erupted into "<a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32" target="_blank">civil violence and protracted political instability</a>." A political crisis in Venezuela, rated low likelihood, low impact, is starting to look a lot more likely, with protesters warning they have <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/venezuela-protest-2014-2">reached the point of no return</a>.</p>
<p>The <a href="http://www.cfr.org/peace-conflict-and-human-rights/preventive-priorities-survey-2014/p32072">CFR report</a> and <a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32">accompanying map (click for interactive version)</a> is based on the assessment of approximately 1,200 government officials, foreign policy experts, and academics. Risk events are rated for likelihood and impact, with high impact events directly threatening the U.S. homeland, likely to trigger U.S. military involvement, or threatening the supply of critical U.S. strategic resources.</p>
<p>Below are the top ten threats threats, starting with the worst, with links to CFR's analysis for more information:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=9">Strengthening of al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula<br /></a>High likelihood; moderate impact.<br />The Arabian Peninsula is considered the "most dangerous al-Qaeda affiliate" to U.S. national security with more than two dozen U.S. diplomatic facilities in the area have shut down because of terrorist threats. In response, the United States will continue to escalate its drone counterterrorism campaign.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=10" target="_blank">Political Instability in Jordan<br /></a>High likelihood; moderate impact.<br />Jordan's political stability and economy is severely threatened by the influx of Syrian and Palestinian refugees. The United Nations has estimated that Jordan will need $5.3 billion by the end of 2014 for its refugee crisis. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=8" target="_blank">Sectarian Violence in Iraq<br /></a>High likelihood; moderate impact.<br />According to the CFR, if sectarian violence continues, Iraq may plunge into a "deeper state of chaos" and potentially into civil war. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=7" target="_blank">Rising Security Threats in Pakistan</a> <br />High likelihood; moderate impact.<br />The withdrawal of U.S. and allied forces from Afghanistan after 2014 could increase instability by allowing anti-state militants from Pakistan to establish a terrorist safe haven in Afghanistan. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=3" target="_blank">Increased Violence and Instability in Afghanistan</a> <br />High likelihood; moderate impact.<br />Failure to sign a security pact could undermine U.S. and allied forces efforts to improve the security environment of Afghanistan. The reestablishment of al-Qaeda groups throughout Afghanistan is one possibility if agreements are not met.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=1">Terrorist Attack on the U.S. Homeland<br /></a>Moderate likelihood; high impact.<br />Another attack on the scale of 9/11 is "plausible," according to CFR, with the White House warning that al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula "poses the greatest potential threat."</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=4">Iranian Nuclear Crisis<br /></a>Moderate likelihood; high impact.<br />The prospects for a breakthrough in the nuclear standoff with Iran have recently improved. A lasting settlement of the dispute is still uncertain and even "the possibility of military strikes cannot be discounted," according to the CFR.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=5" target="_blank">North Korean Crisis</a><br />Moderate likelihood; high impact.<br />The risk of conflict on the Korean peninsula remains high since there are  continuous efforts by North Korea to develop nuclear weapons and long range missiles against UN Security Council resolutions. The execution of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un's uncle following charges of treason has increased the potential for political instability and unrest in the country.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=6" target="_blank">Civil War in Syria</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; high impact.<br />According to the CFR, ongoing civil strife threatens the stability of U.S. allies, particularly Turkey and Jordan. Increased regional instability could create another safe haven for extremist groups active in Syria, like al-Qaeda affiliates, Islamic State of Iraq, and Hezbollah.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=2" target="_blank">Cyberattack on U.S. Infrastructure</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; high impact.<br />Due to the increasingly sophisticated nature of cyberattacks, such an attack on critical infrastructure could be significantly disruptive or potentially devastating. Energy is the most vulnerable industry, and therefore a large-scale attack could temporarily halt the supply of water, electricity, gas, transportation, communication, and financial institutions.</p>
<p>And 23 more threats:</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=26">Violence in the Central African Republic</a> <br />High likelihood; low impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=33">Internal Violence in South Sudan</a> <br />High likelihood; low impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=16" target="_blank">Escalation of Drug-Related Violence in Mexico</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=14" target="_blank">Political Instability in Libya</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=12" target="_blank">Increased Violence in Egypt</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=18" target="_blank">Indo-Pakistani Military Confrontation</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=20">Continuing Conflict in Somalia with Al-Shabab</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=15">Sectarian Violence in Lebanon</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; moderate impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=32">Political Unrest in Ukraine</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; moderate impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=13">South China Sea Armed Confrontation</a> <br />Low likelihood; high impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=17">Increasing Sectarian Violence in Nigeria</a> <br />Low likelihood; high impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=11">East China Sea Armed Confrontation</a> <br />Low likelihood; high impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=29">Political Crisis in Venezuela</a> <br />Low likelihood; low impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=25">Violence in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; low impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=28">Sectarian Violence in Myanmar</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; low impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=19">Internal Instability in Sudan</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; low impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=27">Sino-Indian Clash</a> <br />Low likelihood; moderate impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=24">Sudan-South Sudan Military Conflict</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; low impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=23">Conflict Between Armenia and Azerbaijan</a> <br />Low likelihood; low impact.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=30">Violence in Bangladesh</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; low impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=31">Growing Instability in Thailand</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; low impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=22">Conflict in Kurdish-Dominated Regions</a> <br />Moderate likelihood; low impact. </p>
<p><a href="http://www.cfr.org/global/global-conflict-tracker/p32137#!/?marker=21">Destabilization of Mali</a> <br />Low likelihood; moderate impact.</p>

The 33 Biggest Geopolitical Risks For America In 2014

<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table full"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>Despite frequent use in Egypt, Turkey, Palestine, Bahrain, and now <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/ferguson-protests-police-tear-gas-michael-brown-shooting-death-2014-8">Ferguson, Missouri</a>, only limited research has been done on the potentially lethal effects of the neurotoxins found in tear gas.</p>
<p>Of the studies that have been done, doctors note that most cases of tear gas exposure result in only <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24379300">temporary side effects</a>, though some cases <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1343325/">can result in severe complications</a>, including death.</p>
<h3>How it feels to be tear gassed</h3>
<p>The most common form of tear gas - and the one <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/police-fire-tear-gas-on-al-jazeera-america-tv-crew-and-then-take-their-equipment-2014-8">fired on TV crews</a> and protestors in Ferguson - is known as CS. The compound, actually a solid suspended in liquid droplets, is a nerve agent that works by switching on pain receptors, which tell your brain when something hurts.</p>
<p>After 20 seconds of exposure, protestors in Ferguson would have experienced a tightening in the chest and painful stinging in the nose and eyes, <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC539444/">according to the Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine</a>. People who are tear-gassed have a burning sensation in their throats and cough, wretch, and sometimes vomit.</p>
<p>Business Insider's politics editor, Hunter Walker, who was hit with tear gas while covering 'Occupy Oakland' protests in 2011, describes being "suddenly gripped by a pain so intense, I nearly fell to my knees."</p>
<p>"The most overwhelming aspect of the pain was an intense tightness in my chest. It felt like my heart might burst or collapse into itself and it was so bad I thought I might be having a serious medical issue," he <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/this-is-what-its-like-to-get-tear-gassed-2014-8#ixzz3AriRxUnQ">wrote</a>.</p>
<p>When tear gas and smoke is fired from canisters, there's also a risk of serious injury if protestors are hit with the canisters.</p>
<p>An <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23365472" title="Iranian Journal of Medical Sciences">Iranian study</a> during protests in 2008 and 2009 found that canister impacts caused 18 cases of severe bleeding and fractures, leading to at least three amputations. They aren't small and can explode after hitting the ground.</p>
<h3><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table full"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>What to do if tear gassed</h3>
<p>Medical professionals dealing with tear gassed patients have no specific antidote for the toxins used - all they can do is get them out of the area and wash the gas from their eyes and other affected areas using sterile saline. If the patients are injured in other ways, doctors run into trouble when performing surgery - the swelling in the throat can make it <a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/11183362" title="Anesthetic precautions ">impossible to intubate them</a>, so they can't breathe if they need to be sedated.</p>
<p><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right click-to-enlarge"><div><div class="image"><a title_source="Screenshot, Twitter" title_caption="Mariam Barghouti, 21, tweets advice from Palestine to protestors in Ferguson on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2014." class="zoomin" href="https://static-ssl.businessinsider.com/image/53f357dd69bedd823840afbf-960/palestinian-activists-give-advice-to-furguson-protesters-over-twitter.png"><span class="sprites click-to-enlarge-icon" title="Click to enlarge"></span></a><p class="source"><span>Screenshot, Twitter</span></p><p class="caption">Mariam Barghouti, 21, tweets advice from Palestine to protestors in Ferguson on Wednesday, Aug. 13, 2014.</p></div><p></p></div></div>After police in Ferguson fired the gas on protestors last week, activists in Palestine offered advice on twitter:</p>
<p>"Keep calm when you're teargassed, the pain will pass, don't rub your eyes!" West Bank resident Mariam Barghouti tweeted.</p>
<p>When you are calm, immediately moving as far away from the gas as possible to minimize exposure.</p>
<p>If you are hit with tear gas, take out your contact lenses and use lots of saline or water to rinse affected areas. Not rinsing thoroughly can spread the chemicals further.</p>
<p>After mild exposure, symptoms should subside after 10 to 15 minutes, but after moderate or high exposure, symptoms can take several hours to die down. If you get skin irritations or breathing difficulties lasting days, seek further treatment.</p>
<p>When someone isn't at the top of their health game, the effects of tear gas can be way worse. Children, the elderly, women who are pregnant, or anyone with an underlying respiratory illness or heart condition should seek medical attention as soon as possible after being hit.</p>
<p>After widespread use of tear gas on protestors in Bahrain in 2012, the international human rights group, Physicians for Human Rights, <a href="http://physiciansforhumanrights.org/press/press-releases/bahrain-uses-tear-gas-as-lethal-weapon.html">reported</a> that several women miscarried after exposure, and one asthmatic man died.</p>
<p>In August 2013, Egyptian police killed 37 prisoners after <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/r-egypt-court-cancels-jail-sentence-against-policeman-linked-to-39-deaths-2014-07">firing tear gas into a loaded van</a>, causing the victims to suffocate in excruciating pain. Four police officers, including a Lieutenant Colonel, were convicted of manslaughter over the incident.</p>
<h3><div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table full"><div><div class="image"></div><p></p></div></div>Unknown consequences</h3>
<p>Dr Vincent Iacopino from Physicians for Human Rights told Business Insider the long term effects of tear gas remain unknown.</p>
<p>"It is important to understand that, in many countries, large populations have been exposed to significant levels of tear gas for periods of days to weeks. The long term effects of such long-term exposures have not been studied," he said.</p>
<p>Iacopino did tell us that tear gas can be used safely, but "the fact that it is commonly misused increases the possibility of severe injuries and/or death."</p>
<p>The compounds used in tear gas were developed during the First World War and used alongside other more deadly chemical weapons, such as mustard gas and chlorine.</p>
<p>The effects of the chemical warfare were so horrific that many of the nations which deployed them in the First World War had agreed on a ban, the Geneva Gas-War Protocol, by the time the Second World War flared in 1939.</p>
<p>Tear gas is banned under the 1993 international Chemical Weapons Convention which has been adopted by by 190 countries including the United States, however, the treaty only covers international conflict, and not domestic use.</p>

Tear Gas Can Cause Deaths, Amputations, and Miscarriages

<p><em><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>The Economist</span></p></div><p></p></div>The post-Soviet world order was far from perfect, but Vladimir Putin's idea for replacing it is much worse.</em></p>
<p>"In people's hearts and minds," Vladimir Putin told Russia's parliament this week, "Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia."</p>
<p>He annexed the peninsula with dazzling speed and efficiency, backed by a crushing majority in a referendum (see "The Ukraine crisis: Responding to Mr Putin"). He calls it a victory for order and legitimacy and a blow against Western meddling.</p>
<p>The reality is that Mr Putin is a force for instability and strife. The founding act of his new order was to redraw a frontier using arguments that could be deployed to inflame territorial disputes in dozens of places around the world. Even if most Crimeans do want to join Russia, the referendum was a farce. Russia's recent conduct is often framed narrowly as the start of a new cold war with America. In fact it poses a broader threat to countries everywhere because Mr Putin has driven a tank over the existing world order.</p>
<h3>The embrace of the motherland</h3>
<p>Foreign policy follows cycles. The Soviet collapse ushered in a decade of unchallenged supremacy for the United States and the aggressive assertion of American values. But, puffed up by the hubris of George Bush, this "unipolar world" choked in the dust of Iraq. Since then Barack Obama has tried to fashion a more collaborative approach, built on a belief that America can make common cause with other countries to confront shared problems and isolate wrongdoers.</p>
<p>This has failed miserably in Syria but shown some signs of working with Iran. Even in its gentler form, it is American clout that keeps sea lanes open, borders respected and international <keyword id="6355470" type="CITY" weightage="60" keywordseo="Law">law</keyword> broadly observed. To that extent, the post-Soviet order has meaning.</p>
<p>Mr Putin is now destroying that. He dresses up his takeover of Crimea in the garb of international law, arguing for instance that the ousting of the government in Kiev means he is no longer bound by a treaty guaranteeing Ukraine's borders that Russia signed in 1994, when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. But international law depends on governments inheriting the rights and duties of their predecessors.</p>
<p>Similarly, he has invoked the principle that he must protect his "compatriots"--meaning anybody he chooses to define as Russian--wherever they are. Against all evidence, he has denied that the unbadged troops who took control of Crimea were Russian. That combination of protection and subterfuge is a formula for intervention in any country with a minority, not just a Russian one.</p>
<p>Brandishing fabricated accounts of Ukrainian fascists threatening Crimea, he has defied the principle that intervention abroad should be a last resort in the face of genuine suffering. He cites NATO's bombing of Kosovo in 1999 as a precedent, but that came after terrible violence and exhaustive efforts at the UN--which Russia blocked. Even then Kosovo was not, like Crimea, immediately annexed, but seceded nine years later.</p>
<p>Mr Putin's new order, in short, is built on revanchism, a reckless disdain for the truth and the twisting of the law to mean whatever suits those in power. That makes it no order at all.</p>
<p>Sadly, too few people understand this. Plenty of countries resent American primacy and Western moralising. But they would find Mr Putin's new order far worse. Small countries thrive in an open system of rules, albeit imperfect ones. If might is right, they have much to fear, especially if they must contend with an aggressive regional power. Larger countries, especially the new giants of the emerging world, face less threat of bullying, but an anarchic, mistrustful world would harm them all the same.</p>
<p>If international agreements are robbed of their meaning, India could more easily be sucked into a clash of arms with China over Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh with Pakistan. If unilateral secession is acceptable, Turkey will find it harder to persuade its Kurds that their future lies in making peace. Egypt and Saudi Arabia want Iran's regional ambitions to be tamped down, not fed by the principle that it can intervene to help Shia Muslims across the Middle East.</p>
<p>Even China should pause. Tactically, Crimea ties it in knots. The precedent of secession is anathema, because of Tibet; the principle of unification is sacrosanct, because of Taiwan. Strategically, though, China's interests are clear. For decades, it has sought to rise peacefully within the system, avoiding the competition that an upstart Germany launched against Britain in the 19th century and which ended in war. But peace is elusive in Mr Putin's world, because anything can become a pretext for action, and any perceived aggression demands a riposte.</p>
<h3>Act now or pay later</h3>
<p>For Mr Obama, this is a defining moment: he must lead, not just co-operate. But Crimea should also matter to the rest of the world. Given what is at stake, the response has so far been weak and fragmented. China and India have more or less stood aside. The West has imposed visa sanctions and frozen a few Russians' assets. The targets call this a badge of honour.</p>
<p>At the very least, the measures must start to exceed expectations. Asset freezes can be powerful, because, as the Iran sanctions showed, international finance dreads being caught up in America's regulatory machinery. Mr Putin's kleptocratic friends would yelp if Britain made London unwelcome to Russian money linked to the regime (see "Russian money in Britain: Honey trapped").</p>
<p>France should withhold its arms sales to Russia; and, in case eastern Ukraine is next, Germany must be prepared to embargo Russian oil and gas. Planning should start right now to lessen Europe's dependence on Russian energy and to strengthen NATO.</p>
<p>Ukraine needs short-term money, to stave off collapse, and longer-term reforms, with the help of the IMF, backed by as much outside advice as the country will stomach. As a first step, America must immediately pay its dues to the fund, which have been blocked by Congress for months.</p>
<p>Even if the West is prepared to take serious measures against Mr Putin, the world's rising powers may not be inclined to condemn him. But instead of acquiescing in his illegal annexation of Crimea, they should reflect on what kind of a world order they want to live under. Would they prefer one in which states by and large respect international agreements and borders? Or one in which words are bent, borders ignored and agreements broken at will?</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://subscriptions.economist.com/nwcd">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist.</p>
<p></p>

Putin's New World Order Is A Threat To Countries Everywhere

<p><em><div class="KonaFilter image-container float_right"><div class="image"><p class="source"><span>The Economist</span></p></div><p></p></div>The post-Soviet world order was far from perfect, but Vladimir Putin's idea for replacing it is much worse.</em></p>
<p>"In people's hearts and minds," Vladimir Putin told Russia's parliament this week, "Crimea has always been an inseparable part of Russia."</p>
<p>He annexed the peninsula with dazzling speed and efficiency, backed by a crushing majority in a referendum (see "The Ukraine crisis: Responding to Mr Putin"). He calls it a victory for order and legitimacy and a blow against Western meddling.</p>
<p>The reality is that Mr Putin is a force for instability and strife. The founding act of his new order was to redraw a frontier using arguments that could be deployed to inflame territorial disputes in dozens of places around the world. Even if most Crimeans do want to join Russia, the referendum was a farce. Russia's recent conduct is often framed narrowly as the start of a new cold war with America. In fact it poses a broader threat to countries everywhere because Mr Putin has driven a tank over the existing world order.</p>
<h3>The embrace of the motherland</h3>
<p>Foreign policy follows cycles. The Soviet collapse ushered in a decade of unchallenged supremacy for the United States and the aggressive assertion of American values. But, puffed up by the hubris of George Bush, this "unipolar world" choked in the dust of Iraq. Since then Barack Obama has tried to fashion a more collaborative approach, built on a belief that America can make common cause with other countries to confront shared problems and isolate wrongdoers.</p>
<p>This has failed miserably in Syria but shown some signs of working with Iran. Even in its gentler form, it is American clout that keeps sea lanes open, borders respected and international law broadly observed. To that extent, the post-Soviet order has meaning.</p>
<p>Mr Putin is now destroying that. He dresses up his takeover of Crimea in the garb of international law, arguing for instance that the ousting of the government in Kiev means he is no longer bound by a treaty guaranteeing Ukraine's borders that Russia signed in 1994, when Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons. But international law depends on governments inheriting the rights and duties of their predecessors.</p>
<p>Similarly, he has invoked the principle that he must protect his "compatriots"--meaning anybody he chooses to define as Russian--wherever they are. Against all evidence, he has denied that the unbadged troops who took control of Crimea were Russian. That combination of protection and subterfuge is a formula for intervention in any country with a minority, not just a Russian one.</p>
<p>Brandishing fabricated accounts of Ukrainian fascists threatening Crimea, he has defied the principle that intervention abroad should be a last resort in the face of genuine suffering. He cites NATO's bombing of Kosovo in 1999 as a precedent, but that came after terrible violence and exhaustive efforts at the UN--which Russia blocked. Even then Kosovo was not, like Crimea, immediately annexed, but seceded nine years later.</p>
<p>Mr Putin's new order, in short, is built on revanchism, a reckless disdain for the truth and the twisting of the law to mean whatever suits those in power. That makes it no order at all.</p>
<p>Sadly, too few people understand this. Plenty of countries resent American primacy and Western moralising. But they would find Mr Putin's new order far worse. Small countries thrive in an open system of rules, albeit imperfect ones. If might is right, they have much to fear, especially if they must contend with an aggressive regional power. Larger countries, especially the new giants of the emerging world, face less threat of bullying, but an anarchic, mistrustful world would harm them all the same.</p>
<p>If international agreements are robbed of their meaning, India could more easily be sucked into a clash of arms with China over Arunachal Pradesh or Ladakh with Pakistan. If unilateral secession is acceptable, Turkey will find it harder to persuade its Kurds that their future lies in making peace. Egypt and Saudi Arabia want Iran's regional ambitions to be tamped down, not fed by the principle that it can intervene to help Shia Muslims across the Middle East.</p>
<p>Even China should pause. Tactically, Crimea ties it in knots. The precedent of secession is anathema, because of Tibet; the principle of unification is sacrosanct, because of Taiwan. Strategically, though, China's interests are clear. For decades, it has sought to rise peacefully within the system, avoiding the competition that an upstart Germany launched against Britain in the 19th century and which ended in war. But peace is elusive in Mr Putin's world, because anything can become a pretext for action, and any perceived aggression demands a riposte.</p>
<h3>Act now or pay later</h3>
<p>For Mr Obama, this is a defining moment: he must lead, not just co-operate. But Crimea should also matter to the rest of the world. Given what is at stake, the response has so far been weak and fragmented. China and India have more or less stood aside. The West has imposed visa sanctions and frozen a few Russians' assets. The targets call this a badge of honour.</p>
<p>At the very least, the measures must start to exceed expectations. Asset freezes can be powerful, because, as the Iran sanctions showed, international finance dreads being caught up in America's regulatory machinery. Mr Putin's kleptocratic friends would yelp if Britain made London unwelcome to Russian money linked to the regime (see "Russian money in Britain: Honey trapped").</p>
<p>France should withhold its arms sales to Russia; and, in case eastern Ukraine is next, Germany must be prepared to embargo Russian oil and gas. Planning should start right now to lessen Europe's dependence on Russian energy and to strengthen NATO.</p>
<p>Ukraine needs short-term money, to stave off collapse, and longer-term reforms, with the help of the IMF, backed by as much outside advice as the country will stomach. As a first step, America must immediately pay its dues to the fund, which have been blocked by Congress for months.</p>
<p>Even if the West is prepared to take serious measures against Mr Putin, the world's rising powers may not be inclined to condemn him. But instead of acquiescing in his illegal annexation of Crimea, they should reflect on what kind of a world order they want to live under. Would they prefer one in which states by and large respect international agreements and borders? Or one in which words are bent, borders ignored and agreements broken at will?</p>
<p>Click <a href="https://subscriptions.economist.com/nwcd">here</a> to subscribe to The Economist.</p>
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