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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

<ul class="summary-list"><li>President-elect Donald Trump claims he can split the alliance between Russia and China.</li><li>The authoritarian states formed a "no limits" partnership after Russia's Ukraine invasion.</li></ul>At an event just days before his <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-victory-impact-investments-costs-housing-taxes-childcare-2024-11">election triumph</a>, Donald Trump gave a clue as to how he plans to tackle two of the US' most powerful adversaries, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">Russia and China.</a>Speaking to right-wing media personality <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=46FFS37MCx0">Tucker Carlson in Glendale, Arizona, </a>Trump accused the Biden administration of allowing the authoritarian powers to draw closer together."The one thing you never want to happen is you never want Russia and China uniting," Trump said. "I'm going to have to un-unite them, and I think I can do that, too. I have to un-unite them."Trump has long boasted of his deal-making prowess and, during his term of office, claimed to have struck a rapport with strongmen leaders President Vladimir Putin of Russia and Xi Jinping of China.But analysts say that prising Russia and China's bromance could prove to be an insurmountable challenge.<h2 id="56ef374b-ed2f-43ea-9df5-ddc65e9c013c">An anti-US alliance</h2>Xi and Putin are determined to topple US global power and they see Trump's election as a chance to further that agenda."While there are differences between Moscow and Beijing, they both share a world view of America in terminal decline, now further accelerated by the upheaval expected from a second Trump term," Stefan Wolff, a professor on international security at the University of Birmingham in the UK, told BI. It's a relationship of increasing concern to leaders in the Pentagon, as both nations<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9"> possess formidable nuclear arsenals </a>and sophisticated military technology.China has given Russia vital economic and diplomatic support to fuel its invasion of Ukraine, a US ally. <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-russia-trade-record-ukraine-war-xi-jinping-vladimir-putin-2024-1">Trade between China and Russia</a> surged to a record high of $240 billion in 2023,Meanwhile, Russia and China's militaries have taken part in joint military exercises as China menaces Taiwan with invasion. <h2 id="e9cf0f79-3ec7-4131-88ce-94d98aefec59">Tensions remain</h2>Despite the declarations of unity, there are serious underlying tensions in the alliance Trump could seek to exploit.The president-elect pointed to these in his remarks to Carlson, claiming that Russia and China are "natural enemies" because China covets Russian land in the Far East for its growing population.<div type="image" title="Chinese and Russian jet fighters" height="640" width="1024" msid="115059004" hostid="261" sizebytes="14522"></div>"There is a lot of resentment of China in Russia in both the public and policy circles," said Wolff.China has made audacious inroads in the<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/xi-china-putin-russia-frenemies-limits-power-sphere-influence-2024-7"> Central Asian republics that have long been seen</a> as part of Moscow's sphere of influence. And Russia is wary that China could seek to revive old border disputes to expand its territory, said Wolff.Russia, he continued, is "ultimately resentful of the fact that Moscow is now a junior partner to Beijing. These are potentially all things that Trump could use to drive a wedge between Russia and China."<h2 id="0f840bf6-189a-447f-89b2-5ba2081939b0">Exploiting chaos </h2>But achieving the goal will be incredibly difficult, say observers. To entice Putin away from his alliance with Xi, Trump would likely have to present him <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putin-no-hurry-end-ukraine-war-no-matter-wins-election-2024-11">with a US-brokered Ukraine peace</a> deal that meets most of the demands the Russian president has set out, said Wolff. These include the annexation of swaths of Ukrainian territory and guarantees that sanctions would be lifted — terms Ukraine has flatly rejected, and that would enrage the US' European allies. But even if Putin were tempted by such a deal, China's current economic leverage over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-trade-moscow-beijing-imports-bank-transactions-payments-2024-10">Russia as its biggest trading partner </a>provides it with an effective veto to any prospective deal with Trump. "Russia is going to be dependent on China no matter what in coming years as it seeks to rebuild its armed force and economy after Ukraine, and it's a weakness that Beijing will certainly exploit even if it costs it more to do so," Paul Cormarie, a political analyst a the RAND Corporation told BI."Unless it's [the US] replacing China as Russia's main partner (which would be frankly absurd) there's nothing much that could realistically split the two at the moment," he said.Jonathan Ward, an analyst at the Hudson Institute, told BI that Trump could instead seek to exert pressure on China, imposing the same punishing sanctions on the Chinese economy as it applied to Russia to tear the allies apart.<div type="image" title="Donald Trump shakes hands with Vladimir Putin." height="1160" width="1880" msid="115059005" hostid="261" sizebytes="73122"></div>He said this would "set a long-term framework for the breaking of the Russia-China axis and eventual strategic victory over this group of adversary states."However, some analysts <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/sunk-costs-difficulty-using-sanctions-deter-china-taiwan-crisis">have </a>questioned the power of US sanctions to change China's decision-making and said they'd be tough to enforce given the size of China's economy.Another possibility is that Trump could seek to form smaller deals to create divisions between Russia and China, for instance, on security or sanctions. But they'd be unlikely to last."These deals would likely not impress serious thinkers in strategy and policy, but will be sellable as foreign policy wins," Robert Dover, a professor of International Security at Hull University in the UK, told BI.<h2 id="d89e07fd-2106-489f-9400-2915f0f79e26">The Trump effect</h2>Another factor likely to draw Russia and China closer together is Trump himself. Putin and Xi likely see the chance to exploit divisions caused by Trump's willingness to insult allies and foment domestic turmoil. Trump has long questioned the US commitment to the NATO alliance, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/possible-trump-effect-uk-national-security-and-what-do-about-it">Russia will likely be keen to probe </a>weaknesses caused by the possible withdrawal of its most powerful member.In East Asia, Trump has accused allies of freeloading off the US, a source of tension Beijing will likely seek to exploit."China can take a 'divide-and-conquer' strategy to dilute the effectiveness of Trump's foreign policy," Zhiqun Zhu, an expert on Chinese foreign policy at Bucknell University, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/china-expects-bumpy-relations-with-the-us-under-trump-/7854808.html">told VOA this week. </a>For many observers, the economic and strategic ties that have formed between Russia and China in recent years are already so strong that breaking them apart is likely impossible.As Cormarie put it: "The Russia-China axis against the US is here to stay."

Trump said he will divide Russia from China. It's a tough bromance to break.

<keyword id="22003705" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-traders" source="keywords">Indian traders</keyword> involved in <keyword id="22003703" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="border-trade" source="keywords">border trade</keyword> with China through the <keyword id="22003704" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Lipulekh-pass" source="keywords">Lipulekh pass</keyword> in Pithoragarh district since 1992, have requested the central government to take up the issue of resumption of border trade through this route with Beijing. The trade route was closed rather suddenly after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, forcing Indian traders to return from the <keyword id="22003706" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Taklakot-mart" source="keywords">Taklakot mart</keyword> in Tibet leaving behind their woollen products. Five years have passed but the route has not been opened, an organisation of border traders in Dharchula said. The traders who belong to the <keyword id="22005864" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Bhotia-tribe" source="keywords">Bhotia tribe</keyword> started to raise their demand for reopening of the trade route through Lipulekh after China recently began the process of implementing a pact, in which it had agreed to open all 14 trade passes with Nepal. The implementation of the agreement inked by China and Nepal in December, 2022 began on May 25 this year, when China opened Piangi pass situated in Dolpa district of eastern Nepal, president of Bharat Tibetan Simant Vyapar Samiti, Dharchula Jeewan Singh Rongkali said. Three more passes along the Indo-Tibet border in the western region of Nepal that fall in the districts of Humla, Bajang and Darchula will be opened on June 20, 30 and 25 respectively, he said. "We have so far sent 22 applications to the government of India requesting it to take up with the Chinese authorities the reopening of the trade route through Lipulekh pass but have received no response so far," Rongkali said. According to Rongkali, Indian tribal traders from Dharchula alone have left trading items worth Rs 15 lakh in <keyword id="22005865" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="taklakot" source="keywords">Taklakot</keyword> Mart of Tibet at the time of closure of border trade in 2019, following the Covid-19 pandemic. "We have no information if our stored goods are safe or in a state of decay. They were stored in plywood covers at the time of closure of trade," Rongkali said. "We want trade with China to be resumed through Lipulekh pass but if for some reason it is not possible then the traders should be given 15 days' time to go to Taklakot to ring back their goods," he said. Goods of over 450 Indian tribal traders have been lying there for the last 5 years, he said. According to Rongkali, over 450 Indian traders used to supply essential goods to villagers of over 45 villages of western Tibet through this trade route since 1992. "Out of over 1.5 crore trade annually, we have paid lakhs of rupees towards customs duty and other taxes to the government of India," said Rongkali. China announced in the year 2022 that it will build trans Himalayan multi-dimensional connectivity with Nepal to restructure the road and communication network with that country, Rongkali said. "As China has not given permission to open our passes along the Indo-China border, we have an apprehension that the mart made for Indian traders in Gakkhu town of Taklakot could be handed over to Nepalese traders," said Rongkali.

Indian traders demand resumption of border trade with China through Lipulekh pass

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's Xi Jinping negotiated a truce with India's leader, Narendra Modi.</li><li>They agreed to a patrolling arrangement on a disputed Himalayan border.</li></ul>At the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-hosts-brics-summit-defy-west-us-economy-china-dollar-2024-10">BRICS summit</a> in Russia this week, China's leader Xi Jinping and India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi shook hands for the first time in five years.The symbolic moment came after a deal was struck to resolve a long-standing feud between the Asian superpowers.In the lead-up to the summit, the countries announced they had reached a patrolling agreement that would reduce tensions along a disputed <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-china-buying-new-light-tanks-for-himalayan-mountain-warfare-2023-6">Himalayan border.</a>The dispute had led to deadly hand-to-hand combat in recent years, taking the lives of 20 Indian troops and at least four Chinese soldiers.After their meeting at the summit hosted by Russia's President Vladimir Putin, Xi and Modi said they would continue discussions on resolving the issue.<h2 id="997cee52-7fd6-4283-bf77-94e40a12b5cc">A setback for the US</h2>Some analysts believe it is a development that's unlikely to be welcomed in Washington, DC.The US has sought to recruit India to help it contain China's growing regional aggression alongside other members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, a security pact that also includes Japan and Australia."So definitely, this is a setback for the United States of America's Indo-Pacific outlook, given the kind of rapprochement we are seeing in India-China relations, and particularly India, China and Russia coming together," Jagannath Panda, head of the Stockholm Center for South Asian and Indo-Pacific Affairs, told Business Insider."Putin, Xi, and Modi meeting definitely signals that there is a kind of understanding under the carpet that has happened, which is quite subtle," he said.It's an assessment echoed by Zhiqun Zhu, professor of political science and international affairs at Bucknell University."The thaw in India-China relations is a boon to both countries. This is particularly significant for China because India may now be less inclined to confront Beijing as part of Quad," Zhu told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.voanews.com/a/india-china-deal-raises-questions-about-us-indo-pacific-strategy-/7838623.html">Voice of America. </a>"In this sense, the effectiveness of Quad would be diluted with a less enthusiastic India."<h2 id="baf534cf-4366-41b8-b9ef-d526ffe91fda">Competition between Asia's rival powers intensifies</h2>Tensions have been building between China and India for years.As the two biggest economies in Asia, the countries have long jostled for regional power, with the dispute over the Himalayan border a flashpoint that led to clashes in 2020, 2021, and 2022.Amid the stand-off, Chinese vessels have reportedly surveilled the Indian Ocean in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/india/another-chinese-research-vessel-spotted-off-india-fuelling-unease-2024-03-11/">what experts told Reuters</a> was a likely intelligence-gathering operation, while India has strengthened its security ties with China's chief global rival, the US.In 2017 India played a key role in restarting the Quad, an alliance designed as a bulwark against growing Chinese influence and aggression in the Asia-Pacific region.But India has long sought to balance its relationship with rival superpowers the US and China, and does not at this point want to tie itself too closely to either side, say analysts.In addition to being a member of the Quad Alliance, it is a founding member of the BRICS, an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-asia-countries-flaunt-russia-putin-diplomacy-relationship-brics-2024-9">association of non-Western economies </a>that China has sought to transform into an alternative global economic power base to the US.<div type="image" title="India-China border" height="683" width="1024" msid="114594056" hostid="261" sizebytes="158650"></div>"This explains why it remains part of multilateral groupings with contradictory goals," said Praveen Donthi, a South Asia analyst with the Eurasia Group in Washington, DC, pointing to both its membership of the US-aligned Quad and China-dominated BRIC group.The truce comes with China on the back foot diplomatically, said Panda, pointing to its damaged relations with Europe and the US after its support f<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-and-china-anti-us-coalition-is-growing-more-threatening-2024-9">or Russia's invasion of Ukraine.</a>"One could draw a conclusion at this point that probably the Chinese are more interested to rebuild the ties with India than the other way round," said Panda.He said there's also the possibility that Xi has reached an agreement with Modi behind the scenes for India to remain silent if China acts on its longstanding ambition to seize back control of Taiwan.Such a move would likely draw in the US and its other regional allies, who have pledged to help defend<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taiwan-drone-swarms-uav-us-playing-catch-up-production-2024-10"> Taiwan's independence.</a>"I think China's bigger ambition and target is the Taiwan issue, and therefore they would not really like to continue the kind of tensions they were engaged in with India for the last three to four years," he said."Therefore, they would like to rebuild, and they would like to ensure that India does not react to the Taiwan issue so sensitively."In any case, its a setback in US attempts to include India in a deeper security alliance, he said."For a long time, the US has tried to develop security and defense ties with India," said Panda.For the time being, a truce suits both Russian and Chinese interests, Rahul Bhatia, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, said. But, he added, tensions remain.He said that though both parties have opened discussions about the border dispute, the underlying problem remains unresolved, and future flare-ups are likely.Donthi said the progress between the leaders could also be derailed if tensions between the US and China increase."This comes as a relief after four years of eyeball-to-eyeball troop deployment in the Himalayas. However, it's only the beginning," he said.

Xi undercut the West by negotiating a truce in China's long feud with India

Former president Donald Trump has said Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will meet him next week during his upcoming three-day visit to the US. While the Republican presidential candidate slammed India as an "abuser" on the issue of import tariffs, he described Modi as a "fantastic man". PM Modi will be visiting the US from September 21 to 23. Speaking on Tuesday at his first public appearance following the recent apparent assassination attempt, Trump said Modi will meet him next week when he is in the US. "So when India, which is a very big abuser. He (Modi) happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he's fantastic. I mean, fantastic man. A lot of these leaders are fantastic," Trump said, reiterating that India imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The former president revealed the information as he spoke about trade and tariffs while responding to a question at a town hall meeting in Flint, Michigan. He went on to say, "These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards...You know the expression, they're at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough....China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs." "So we're going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us USD 2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing. And what's going to happen? Everything's going to disappear, and we're going to end up having free trade again. And if it doesn't disappear, we're going to take in a lot of money," he said. Modi will begin his trip with the <keyword id="23214075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders' Summit</keyword> being hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. The summit will be attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. Modi will then travel to New York and address a mega community event in Long Island on September 22. He will address world leaders at the landmark Summit of the Future event at the UN headquarters the next day. Modi's visit comes less than two months before the US heads into presidential elections with Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the top job. The US general elections will take place on November 5.

Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him 'fantastic'

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The tariffs Donald Trump proposed while campaigning could help create US semiconductor jobs.</li><li>Tariffs could also help US chipmakers compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.</li></ul>If president-elect Donald Trump follows through on his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">campaign promise to impose tariffs</a>, the domestic semiconductor industry could see job gains.Industry experts told Business Insider that tariffs on foreign-made chips could help level the playing field for US chipmakers, which are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chip-troubles-problem-us-economy-domestic-production-chips-act-2024-11">facing fierce competition</a> from their counterparts abroad. The tariffs could also encourage US businesses to source more chips domestically and help persuade chipmaking giants, like the Taiwan-based <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-making-apple-iphone-chips-helps-us-semiconductor-bet-2024-10">TSMC</a>, to keep building factories in the US. These developments could aid job growth in the US semiconductor industry, though experts disagreed on how much.Trump's proposed tariff policies include a 60% tariff on goods coming from China and up to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">20% tariff</a> on all imports, including chips. US companies source many of the chips needed to power items like iPhones and washing machines from abroad: The US share of overall chip production fell from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-us-doesnt-make-chips-semiconductor-shortage-2021-4">37%</a> of the world's supply in 1990 to roughly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%20of%20these,Vice%20President%20Harris%20took%20office.">10%</a> today.In an <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0e9ynAH6hmZIIeOx0SaGQu">interview</a> with podcaster Joe Rogan in October, Trump criticized the Biden administration's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chips-act-funding-all-hands-meeting-2024-11">CHIPS Act</a> legislation, which included $52.7 billion in tax breaks and subsidies for companies in the semiconductor industry. He said that the federal government should have implemented tariffs instead to motivate global chipmakers to build more factories in the US, which would then create jobs."You didn't have to put up $0.10," Trump said. "You could have done it with tariffs. You tariff it so high that they will come and build their chip companies for nothing."To be sure, the impacts of a tariff policy on chips could be mixed. Jeff Koch, an analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, told BI that tariffs could lead to higher prices for goods containing chips, such as cars, electronics, and appliances. He added that US chipmakers could likely benefit from these tariffs because it could help them compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.<h2 id="dc733634-a51d-47cf-a7b9-405bdfac9e61">Tariffs on chips could boost construction and manufacturing jobs</h2>Patrick Moorhead, founder, CEO, and chief analyst at the research and advisory firm Moor Insights and Strategy, told BI that tariffs could increase the number of US chip manufacturing jobs. He added that he thinks the policy could incentivize chipmakers like TSMC and Samsung, which is based in South Korea, to boost manufacturing in the US."The cost of manufacturing in the US for Samsung and TSMC would be lower than a 30% to 40% tariff on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">wafers</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ai-chip-production-manufacturing-nvidia-labor-china-taiwan-korea-2024-4">packaging</a>," he said, referring to key components of the chipmaking process.Jeff Ferry, chief economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a nonprofit that advocates for increasing domestic manufacturing, estimated that tariffs could create roughly 100,000 jobs at US chip manufacturers and their suppliers.He said this estimate was partly based on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/2021-Jobs-Report_2-pager.pdf">report</a> published in 2021 by the Semiconductor Industry Association — a trade association and lobbying group — that said a $50 billion investment would help create an estimated 10 additional chip factories in the US. That could add about 42,000 direct jobs at the companies building these factories and 101,500 indirect jobs at chipmakers' suppliers, per the report.Ferry said he thought chip tariffs could lead to the creation of roughly 10 additional factories, which led him to come to the 100,000 jobs estimate. In August, the White House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/">said</a> that investments supported by CHIPS Act funding would help create 115,000 construction and manufacturing jobs."Tariffs on chips, particularly legacy chips like those used in autos, could successfully shift production back to the US," Ferry said.Samsung did not respond to a request for comment. Intel and TSMC did not respond to a question about what impact a Trump administration tariff policy would have on each company's job creation plans in the US.An Intel spokesperson pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/us-chips-act-intel-direct-funding.html#gs.i5ie0q">press release</a> from March, which said the company's $100 billion investment in the US over the next five years is expected to create more than 10,000 jobs at Intel and nearly 20,000 construction jobs. TSMC pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122">press release</a> from April, that said TSMC's investments in three Arizona chip factories are expected to create roughly 6,000 company jobs, more than 20,000 construction jobs, and tens of thousands of indirect supplier and consumer jobs.Stephen Ezell, the vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, said that the effectiveness of a tariff on chips could be limited, in part because many chips aren't imported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">directly</a> into the US: He said they often come embedded into finished products like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">smartphones</a> or computers.For example, he said that in most cases, chips that TSMC manufactures in Taiwan for Apple are sent to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/tsmc-apple-memory-chip-production-us-china-taiwan-relations/672593/">China</a> or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/apple-made-14-billion-worth-of-iphones-in-india-in-shift-from-china.html">India</a> to be incorporated into a product like an iPhone. Therefore, the chip wouldn't be subject to a US tariff but the iPhone would.When deciding whether to build a chip factory in the US, Ezell said several factors — including wage rates, the labor talent pool, and tax policy — would be bigger considerations for companies than the country's tariff policy. But if tariffs proved to be the deciding factor in a company's decision to invest in the US, then Ezell said the policy could arguably be credited with boosting employment in the semiconductor industry."If a company did decide not to launch a factory elsewhere and instead launch it in the United States, then yes, this dynamic could lead companies to hire more," he said.Do you work in the US semiconductor industry? Reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jzinkula@businessinsider.com">jzinkula@businessinsider.com</a>

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