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India could see a shift in foreign direct investment (FDI) trends in the second term of Donald Trump (Trump 2.0) as President of the United States, says a research report by the State Bank of India. The report highlighted that under his first term, Trump 1.0, the Trump administration made sweeping regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the U.S., which impacted FDI inflows globally, including India. It added that if similar policies are reintroduced in Trump 2.0 also, it could create challenges for emerging markets like India, which rely on FDI as a significant driver of economic growth. Notably, a recent Kotak report highlighted that a complete Republican control over all arms of the US government would mean increased US earnings via corporate tax cuts, higher tariffs on imports into the US and greater US fiscal deficits. The first two could spell doom for emerging markets like India and China, since foreign investors will make a beeline for investing more money in the US markets, which will come at the cost of intense selloff in emerging markets. However, higher fiscal deficits will eventually lead to the dollar weakening after the initial euphoria dies down. "India may see shifts in foreign direct investments (FDIs) during Trump 2.0. The Trump 1.0 administration saw significant regulatory changes aimed at attracting investments back to the US," the SBI report stated. However, given that India has been gradually diversifying its sources of FDI (foreign direct investments), this trend could serve as a buffer against any potential decline. Moreover, domestic institutional investors have been stepping up big time, maintaining some balance to the massive exodus of FIIs over the past month. So far in November 2024, FIIs have withdrawn Rs 19,849 crores from the cash segment in Indian markets, while DIIs have poured in Rs 14,014.18 crores as of November 10th, 2024. "India is no longer dependent on the traditional sources of FDI inflows... unlike the recent past, FDI is now coming in many new sectors," noted the SBI report. Unlike a decade ago, when most FDI inflows came from a limited number of traditional sectors, India is now attracting investment in a wide array of industries, including renewable energy, sea transport, medical devices, and surgical appliances. Data suggests over the last 24 years, i.e., between April 2000 and June 2024, FDIs have poured in $1,013.4 billion in the Indian economy. Out of this, 67%, i.e., $689.88 billion, has come in just the last 10 years. The report added there are up to 12 emerging sectors showing strong FDI interest, which could help offset any loss of inflows in conventional sectors if there is a shift in global investment patterns under another Trump administration. In the last financial year, the top 5 sectors that have received the highest quantum of FDI inflow include the services sector (finance, banking, insurance, and business) which makes up about 16% of the inflows. This is followed computer software &amp; hardware, which constitute around 15% of total FDI flows. Trading and telecommunications follows with a share of 6% each, and Automobile Industry comes next with a 5% share. In the short term, the potential for increased U.S. tariffs, more restrictive H-1B visa policies, and a stronger dollar could bring some volatility to India's trade and investment landscape. However, in the long term, these challenges might also encourage India to expand its manufacturing capabilities, diversify export markets, and focus on becoming economically more self-reliant. Notably, India has maintained a merchandise trade surplus with the U.S. despite tariffs imposed during Trump's first term. This indicates that Indian exports have remained resilient, and there is potential to strengthen this trade relationship further by capitalizing on emerging sectors and reducing dependency on traditional industries. Suman Chowdhury, Executive Director &amp; Chief Economist, Acuité Ratings &amp; Research Limited cautions that in the medium to long term, the trade relationship with the US may see a structural improvement. "Higher tariff and trade restrictions in the US with China should translate into better opportunities for exports of manufactured goods from India", he adds.

FDIs may shift to US under Trump 2.0 but it is unlikely to severely impact FDIs inflow to India, says SBI Report

Former president Donald Trump has said Prime Minister <keyword id="19895781" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="keywords">Narendra Modi</keyword> will meet him next week during his upcoming three-day visit to the US. While the Republican presidential candidate slammed India as an "abuser" on the issue of import tariffs, he described Modi as a "fantastic man". PM Modi will be visiting the US from September 21 to 23. Speaking on Tuesday at his first public appearance following the recent apparent assassination attempt, Trump said Modi will meet him next week when he is in the US. "So when India, which is a very big abuser. He (Modi) happens to be coming to meet me next week, and Modi, he's fantastic. I mean, fantastic man. A lot of these leaders are fantastic," Trump said, reiterating that India imposes heavy tariffs on imports. The former president revealed the information as he spoke about trade and tariffs while responding to a question at a town hall meeting in Flint, Michigan. He went on to say, "These people are the sharpest people. They're not a little bit backwards...You know the expression, they're at the top of their game, and they use it against us. But India is very tough. Brazil is very tough....China is the toughest of all, but we were taking care of China with the tariffs." "So we're going to do a reciprocal trade. If anybody charges us 10 cents, if they charge us USD 2, if they charge us a hundred per cent, 250, we charge them the same thing. And what's going to happen? Everything's going to disappear, and we're going to end up having free trade again. And if it doesn't disappear, we're going to take in a lot of money," he said. Modi will begin his trip with the <keyword id="23214075" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Quad-Leaders-Summit" source="keywords">Quad Leaders' Summit</keyword> being hosted by President Joe Biden in Wilmington, Delaware. The summit will be attended by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese of Australia and Prime Minister Kishida Fumio of Japan. Modi will then travel to New York and address a mega community event in Long Island on September 22. He will address world leaders at the landmark Summit of the Future event at the UN headquarters the next day. Modi's visit comes less than two months before the US heads into presidential elections with Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris in the race for the top job. The US general elections will take place on November 5.

Trump says PM Modi will meet him during US visit, calls him 'fantastic'

Days after Trump won his way to the White House, becoming the 47th President of the United States, the US Federal Reserve slashed the interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing them within the range of 4.5-4.75%. This is the second time this year that the Fed has lowered the interest rates, after cutting them down by 50 basis points in September 2024. u Fed chair Jerome Powell noted that monetary policy remains tight as inflation remains elevated at 2.4% as of September 2024, slightly above the 2% mark set by the commission. However, the Fed remained optimistic about the current state of the economy. "The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at 2% over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate," the FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) noted in its press release. The rate cut was along widely anticipated lines, although experts were wary of the Fed's way ahead, given that Donald Trump has been elected as the US President. In the past, he has, on multiple occasions, expressed his desire to yield greater influence on the Fed, apart from publicly criticizing Powell. However, Powell continued to stand his ground, noting that Trump cannot legally sack him. He believed in keeping the Fed independent, at least until his tenure as governor ends in 2028. He highlighted that even if he is explicitly asked by Trump to quit, he won't do so. <h2>Trump's regime to inch up inflation?</h2> Trump's electoral promises, if translated into policies, could spell disaster for the Fed's effort to curtail inflation. Reportedly, Trump has promised to levy aggressive tariffs against US trading partners, particularly China, and even extend his 2017 tax cuts. This could mean higher levels of the federal deficit, which would push up prices, wages, and hence, inflation, even as the Fed tries to consistently bring it under control. Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities, notes that it wasn't a surprise when the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 4.75%. The Fed had given enough clues, and the market too had anticipated these rate cuts. "However, what was surprising was how the <keyword id="23863852" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-10-year-bond-yields" source="keywords">US 10-year bond yields</keyword> moved over the last one and a half months, which have been rising relentlessly from 3.6% to almost 4.5% despite the 50 bps cut in the last Fed meeting. It seems that the market is anticipating slower rate cuts going ahead, and maybe there are even chances of inflation rising. The bond yields have cooled off and slipped below the 4.335% mark. This should be bullish for emerging markets like India," he added.

US Fed cuts interest rates by 25 bps, Powell notes Trump's victory to have no impact on policy decisions

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The tariffs Donald Trump proposed while campaigning could help create US semiconductor jobs.</li><li>Tariffs could also help US chipmakers compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.</li></ul>If president-elect Donald Trump follows through on his <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">campaign promise to impose tariffs</a>, the domestic semiconductor industry could see job gains.Industry experts told Business Insider that tariffs on foreign-made chips could help level the playing field for US chipmakers, which are <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chip-troubles-problem-us-economy-domestic-production-chips-act-2024-11">facing fierce competition</a> from their counterparts abroad. The tariffs could also encourage US businesses to source more chips domestically and help persuade chipmaking giants, like the Taiwan-based <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tsmc-making-apple-iphone-chips-helps-us-semiconductor-bet-2024-10">TSMC</a>, to keep building factories in the US. These developments could aid job growth in the US semiconductor industry, though experts disagreed on how much.Trump's proposed tariff policies include a 60% tariff on goods coming from China and up to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/companies-raising-prices-trump-tariffs-inflation-goods-getting-more-expensive-2024-11">20% tariff</a> on all imports, including chips. US companies source many of the chips needed to power items like iPhones and washing machines from abroad: The US share of overall chip production fell from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-us-doesnt-make-chips-semiconductor-shortage-2021-4">37%</a> of the world's supply in 1990 to roughly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/#:~:text=As%20a%20result%20of%20these,Vice%20President%20Harris%20took%20office.">10%</a> today.In an <a target="_blank" href="https://open.spotify.com/episode/0e9ynAH6hmZIIeOx0SaGQu">interview</a> with podcaster Joe Rogan in October, Trump criticized the Biden administration's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-chips-act-funding-all-hands-meeting-2024-11">CHIPS Act</a> legislation, which included $52.7 billion in tax breaks and subsidies for companies in the semiconductor industry. He said that the federal government should have implemented tariffs instead to motivate global chipmakers to build more factories in the US, which would then create jobs."You didn't have to put up $0.10," Trump said. "You could have done it with tariffs. You tariff it so high that they will come and build their chip companies for nothing."To be sure, the impacts of a tariff policy on chips could be mixed. Jeff Koch, an analyst at the semiconductor research and consulting firm SemiAnalysis, told BI that tariffs could lead to higher prices for goods containing chips, such as cars, electronics, and appliances. He added that US chipmakers could likely benefit from these tariffs because it could help them compete with companies abroad that sell chips at lower prices.The Trump campaign did not respond to a request for comment.<h2 id="dc733634-a51d-47cf-a7b9-405bdfac9e61">Tariffs on chips could boost construction and manufacturing jobs</h2>Patrick Moorhead, founder, CEO, and chief analyst at the research and advisory firm Moor Insights and Strategy, told BI that tariffs could increase the number of US chip manufacturing jobs. He added that he thinks the policy could incentivize chipmakers like TSMC and Samsung, which is based in South Korea, to boost manufacturing in the US."The cost of manufacturing in the US for Samsung and TSMC would be lower than a 30% to 40% tariff on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/quartz-mine-computer-chips-hurricane-helene-spruce-pine-semiconductor-2024-9">wafers</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-ai-chip-production-manufacturing-nvidia-labor-china-taiwan-korea-2024-4">packaging</a>," he said, referring to key components of the chipmaking process.Jeff Ferry, chief economist at the Coalition for a Prosperous America, a nonprofit that advocates for increasing domestic manufacturing, estimated that tariffs could create roughly 100,000 jobs at US chip manufacturers and their suppliers.He said this estimate was partly based on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.semiconductors.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/2021-Jobs-Report_2-pager.pdf">report</a> published in 2021 by the Semiconductor Industry Association — a trade association and lobbying group — that said a $50 billion investment would help create an estimated 10 additional chip factories in the US. That could add about 42,000 direct jobs at the companies building these factories and 101,500 indirect jobs at chipmakers' suppliers, per the report.Ferry said he thought chip tariffs could lead to the creation of roughly 10 additional factories, which led him to come to the 100,000 jobs estimate. In August, the White House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/08/09/fact-sheet-two-years-after-the-chips-and-science-act-biden-%E2%81%A0harris-administration-celebrates-historic-achievements-in-bringing-semiconductor-supply-chains-home-creating-jobs-supporting-inn/">said</a> that investments supported by CHIPS Act funding would help create 115,000 construction and manufacturing jobs."Tariffs on chips, particularly legacy chips like those used in autos, could successfully shift production back to the US," Ferry said.Samsung did not respond to a request for comment. Intel and TSMC did not respond to a question about what impact a Trump administration tariff policy would have on each company's job creation plans in the US.An Intel spokesperson pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/us-chips-act-intel-direct-funding.html#gs.i5ie0q">press release</a> from March, which said the company's $100 billion investment in the US over the next five years is expected to create more than 10,000 jobs at Intel and nearly 20,000 construction jobs. TSMC pointed to a <a target="_blank" href="https://pr.tsmc.com/english/news/3122">press release</a> from April, that said TSMC's investments in three Arizona chip factories are expected to create roughly 6,000 company jobs, more than 20,000 construction jobs, and tens of thousands of indirect supplier and consumer jobs.Stephen Ezell, the vice president for global innovation policy at the Information Technology and Innovation Foundation, said that the effectiveness of a tariff on chips could be limited, in part because many chips aren't imported <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">directly</a> into the US: He said they often come embedded into finished products like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.usitc.gov/publications/332/executive_briefings/ebot_cellular_phones_and_covid.pdf">smartphones</a> or computers.For example, he said that in most cases, chips that TSMC manufactures in Taiwan for Apple are sent to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/12/tsmc-apple-memory-chip-production-us-china-taiwan-relations/672593/">China</a> or <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/10/apple-made-14-billion-worth-of-iphones-in-india-in-shift-from-china.html">India</a> to be incorporated into a product like an iPhone. Therefore, the chip wouldn't be subject to a US tariff but the iPhone would.When deciding whether to build a chip factory in the US, Ezell said several factors — including wage rates, the labor talent pool, and tax policy — would be bigger considerations for companies than the country's tariff policy. But if tariffs proved to be the deciding factor in a company's decision to invest in the US, then Ezell said the policy could arguably be credited with boosting employment in the semiconductor industry."If a company did decide not to launch a factory elsewhere and instead launch it in the United States, then yes, this dynamic could lead companies to hire more," he said.Do you work in the US semiconductor industry? Reach out to this reporter at <a target="_blank" href="mailto:jzinkula@businessinsider.com">jzinkula@businessinsider.com</a>

Trump's trade restrictions could be good for American semiconductor jobs

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the Valdai Forum on Thursday.</li><li>He discussed issues including Trump's victory and Taiwan.</li></ul>Russian President <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-butter-prices-soar-vladimir-putin-2024-11">Vladimir Putin </a>on Thursday congratulated Donald Trump on his US election victory in a wide-ranging speech that was followed by a three-hour marathon question and answer session.Putin's comments were made at his annual foreign policy address at the Valdai conference in southern Russia.During the event, the Russian president also spoke about China's position on Taiwan, the US' influence on NATO, and the emergence of a "new world order."Business Insider picked out seven of the most notable moments.<h2 id="f656c596-9d67-437d-9c7d-8a041c1de3bf">Trump's election victory</h2>For the first time, Putin discussed Trump's victory in the US presidential election and said he was ready to speak with him.Trump's "desire to restore relations with Russia, to help end the Ukrainian crisis, in my opinion, deserves attention at least," the Russian president said.Trump has pledged to rapidly end the war in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-soldiers-react-trump-election-win-war-russia-military-aid-2024-11">Ukraine when he takes power,</a> but critics say a Trump-brokered peace deal could result in Ukraine being forced to cede territory.In an apparent bid to rekindle their relationship, Putin also said that Trump had shown himself "brave" and "manly" during an attempt on his life in July.Trump told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-says-no-price-tag-mass-deportation-plan-rcna179178">NBC</a> shortly after Putin's comments: "I think we'll speak."<h2 id="e13f1829-7cb0-4aff-a0f0-16d232c7081c">A neutral Ukraine</h2>In addition to getting Trump on the side, Putin used the event to set out his vision for an end to the war in Ukraine.He said that for a peace deal to be a possibility, Ukraine would have to agree to neutrality."If there is no neutrality, it is difficult to imagine the existence of any good-neighborly relations between Russia and Ukraine," he said.Without neutrality, Ukraine would be "constantly used as a tool in the wrong hands and to the detriment of the interests of the Russian Federation," Putin added.Ukraine has long rejected neutrality as a condition for a<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-joining-nato-could-trigger-war-russia-alliance-putin-says-2022-2"> peace deal and is seeking NATO</a> membership to help protect itself against Russia.<h2 id="646e4fca-822a-4e43-9a29-7476775324bc">A new world order</h2>Putin's mission is not just to seize Ukraine but also to work in tandem with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-china-brink-military-alliance-may-overwhelm-us-putin-xi-2023-12">other authoritarian leaders</a> to damage US global power.In his speech, Putin repeated his belief that a new world order is on the way."The former world arrangement is irreversibly passing away, actually it has already passed away, and a serious, irreconcilable struggle is unfolding for the development of a new world order," he <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://valdaiclub.com/events/posts/articles/putin-plenary-session-2024/">said</a>."It is irreconcilable, above all, because this is not even a fight for power or geopolitical influence. It is a clash of the very principles that will underlie the relations of countries and peoples at the next historical stage."<h2 id="f30a2585-6448-4bf8-bb88-190ffd92eff8">China 'reasonable' on Taiwan</h2>The Russian president backed ally <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/three-ways-china-could-blockade-taiwan-2024-8">China's position on Taiwan</a>, the independent island that Beijing has menaced with the prospect of invasion. "A lot is going on around Taiwan. Everyone formally acknowledges, yes, Taiwan is part of China. But in reality? In reality, it is acting in a completely different direction. Provoking the situation toward escalation," Putin said."We do support China. And because of this, we believe that (China) is conducting a completely reasonable policy. And also because it is our ally. We have a very large trade turnover, we cooperate in the security sector."China has long claimed to be the rightful owner of Taiwan, a US ally that's been independently governed for decades. Russia has relied on Chinese diplomatic and economic support <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-plan-divide-china-russia-axis-is-likely-fail-2024-11">as it was isolated by the West over the Ukraine war, </a>and it has taken part in joint military exercises with China near Taiwan. <h2 id="dea6c50f-c193-4503-9eac-6eeeb8b13009">US influence on NATO</h2>Putin, in his remarks, criticized NATO, the security alliance that's long been the main bulwark against Russian aggression in Europe and which has provided vital help to Ukraine in its war against Russia. He described the alliance as a "blatant anachronism" that is subject to "the diktat of the older brother," referring to the US.Analysts believe that one of Putin's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-war-nato-plans-destroy-within-putin-ukraine-hybrid-warfare-2024-5">core goals is to weaken the alliance</a>, enabling Russia to more easily extend its power.<h2 id="7bc1558a-9f90-4aea-ad7a-70162eae021f">The power of the BRICS nations</h2>Putin contrasted NATO with the BRICS group, a group of non-Western major economies that includes Brazil, India, China, and South Africa.Russia and China have sought to make the group into an alternative global power base to the US, though some members, including India, have resisted this."The prototype of a new, free, and non-bloc character of relations between states and peoples is the community that is currently being formed within the BRICS framework," Putin said."This, among other things, clearly illustrates the fact that even among NATO members there are those, as you know, who are interested in working closely with BRICS."<h2 id="6ead5aef-f855-4672-94cb-b7df99f56e69">A peace deal in the Middle East</h2>On the conflict in the Middle East, Putin called for negotiations to end Israel's war against Hamas and other Iranian proxies.Russia has backed calls for Palestinian sovereignty and criticized Israel's US-backed campaign in what analysts say is likely a bid to undercut regional US influence."You know, now we need to strive to reduce the suffering of the Palestinian people to a minimum, to zero. We need to immediately stop the fighting there, we need to do everything so that both Israel and Palestine, in this case Hamas, agree on this," said Putin.

7 telling moments from Putin's first speech since Trump won

<ul class="summary-list"><li>India's Prime Minister Narendra Modi had his power pegged back in elections this week. </li><li>It was also the 35th anniversary of the Tiananmen Square massacre in China. </li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/narendra-modi-won-already-seeing-cost-him-allies-cabinet-funding-2024-6">Narendra Modi's strongman ambitions</a> suffered a setback this week.His Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) party fell<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/narendra-modi-win-bjp-india-election-explained-2024-6"> short of the landslide victory </a>many had predicted in the Indian elections.As Modi becomes India's prime minister for a third time, his party will have to enter into a power-sharing agreement with alliance partners.It's a chastening lesson from the Indian electorate for Modi, who, while boosting India's global standing, has been accused of stoking division and weakening India's democracy.On the same day as the Indian election results, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.state.gov/on-the-35th-anniversary-of-tiananmen-square/">the world marked the 35th anniversary </a>of the June 4, 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre, which saw a brutal crackdown on pro-democracy protesters in Beijing.In the decades since, China has slid back into Maoist-style authoritarianism.The events this week highlighted how the competition between India and China is about more than raw power. It's also a competition between two very different political ideologies.<h2 id="6acd91a8-36b3-408f-85c1-259d5944f4e0">India is a flawed but thriving democracy</h2>India is the world's largest democracy. Its first elections were held in 1951-52 after it gained independence from Britain. Free elections have been held in nearly every election cycle since, with a coup in 1975 briefly threatening India's democratic status.It is a rare bright spot in a world where democracy seems to be in retreat. Even in the US, the global champion of democracy, former president Donald Trump is accused of launching an attempt to cling to power illegally after losing the 2020 election.<div type="image" title="Indian voters" height="683" width="1024" msid="110819479" hostid="261" sizebytes="88454"></div>"India isn't a perfect democracy but it is still a role model for developing nations, large or small. And given trends in some Western democracies, I would have to say that there are several things they, too, should be learning from India," said Jabin T. Jacob, an expert on India-China relations at Shiv Nadar University, India.India's democracy, though, faces a stern test under Modi, say critics. Global democracy watchdog <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56393944">Freedom House in 2021</a> downgraded India's democratic status, saying Modi's Hindu nationalist movement had menaced journalists, attacked Muslims, and corroded civil liberties.Jacob said this week's results showed India's democracy remained resilient despite the pressures, while dealing a blow to a leader seen to have overstepped his authority."We have just seen an election in which the Indian electorate decided that their interests are best served by power shared more evenly among a set of political formations that represent diverse interests and aspirations. That is the essence of democracy," he said."The Indian electorate is a very mature one, and it has always intervened in a timely fashion against authoritarian tendencies in its rulers."It's unclear whether Modi will now double down on the nationalism he's championed or seek a more moderate path based on economic reform.<h2 id="c1fe728e-200a-4edb-8d77-94ea6111c952">China's rise comes at a high cost</h2>There are those in India, though, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/daa87f88-ae0e-11e3-974d-00144feab7de">who have been astonished</a> at the speed and efficiency of China's rise to economic superpower status.China has become the world's second-largest economy, and the lives of millions of ordinary Chinese people have been transformed. Though India has made huge economic progress under Modi, it still lags behind.<div type="image" title="China high speed rail" height="644" width="1024" msid="110819477" hostid="261" sizebytes="117068"></div>"Perhaps the greatest challenge democracy faces in India is that is has failed to deliver the kind of sustained economic development enjoyed by neighbors like China over the last four decades. It has also failed to eliminate extreme poverty," wrote Chatham House <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/04/democracy-india">analyst Gareth Price in 2022.</a>But with prosperity in China, has come reduced freedom.Since Tiananmen Square 35 years ago, China's Communist Party has rolled back many of the freedoms its citizens once had.Its current leader, Xi Jinping, has imposed a draconian surveillance state and is considered <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-xi-jinping-ai-wreak-havoc-america-world-economy-2024-6">China's most authoritarian ruler</a> since Mao Tse Tung.Dominic Chiu, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, told Business Insider that China's system had given it an economic advantage — but at a cost."China's one-party rule in the reform era enabled consistent long-term policymaking and economic planning," he said. "This benefited China's economy immensely when the leadership decided to liberalize markets, privatize industries, and open the country up to foreign investment." But, he said, China's repressive one-party system was also deterring investors. And with China's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-falls-out-of-love-with-natural-diamonds-industry-struggles-2024-6">economy experiencing a steep </a>downturn, this poses a serious problem for its future growth.<h2 id="ebafe111-fa5e-49b8-95d3-f92a674d0da2">China and India vie for dominance</h2>Having achieved economic superpower status, China is now seeking to assert its power more aggressively both regionally and internationally.Tensions with India are increasing. In 2020, clashes along the countries' Himalayan border resulted in the death of 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese.<div type="image" title="India-China border" height="683" width="1024" msid="110819475" hostid="261" sizebytes="158650"></div><a target="_blank" href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/modi-mission-assert-indias-global-123002908.html">Analysts told BI</a> that building stronger alliances to counter Chinese aggression will be one of the core aims of Modi's third term.And its commitment to democracy hands it an important advantage, said Jacob."India's democratic status is critical for its international standing. It is an opportunity to develop a model of economic and political development that is both equitable and democratic and thus distinct from the aggressive capitalism of the US or the authoritarianism of the PRC," he said.In 2021, India entered<a target="_blank" href="https://uk.news.yahoo.com/modi-went-straight-reelection-needling-103142130.html"> into the "Quad" partnership </a>with democracies the US, Japan, and Australia, to counter what is perceived as growing Chinese aggression in the Pacific and Indian Ocean.It's a political alliance that would've been more difficult to broker if India was ruled by an authoritarian government,<a target="_blank" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/democracy-and-the-us-india-relationship/"> say observers.</a><h2 id="b9b7d5ac-0c25-43f4-adf2-9128d9242020">Competing nationalist visions</h2>Some analysts, though, say that the competition between India and China is not, at its core, about competing political systems but about competing nationalist visions.According to this interpretation, both Xi and Modi are committed to restoring what they see as their nation's rightful place at the top of the global order.But in his quest to strengthen India, critics are warning Modi not to undermine the commitment to democracy and pluralism they believe is at the heart of its post-independence success.Jacob said those in India jealous of China's economic might should look more closely at the reality."Indians who argue against democracy using the China comparison clearly don't understand anything about the reality of China and the Chinese people," he said.

The competition between India and China is about more than raw power

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's tariff threats may boost Chinese exports as importers rush to beat tariffs.</li><li>Trump's proposed tariffs could lead to increased global manufacturing activity temporarily.</li></ul>US President-elect Donald Trump may be good for China's export business — at least temporarily.Trump, who <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-results-trump-harris-presidential-election-2024-11">won</a> the presidential election, has pledged to impose sweeping tariffs of 10% to 20% on imports to the US. He has threatened a 60% tariff on imports from China.His tariff threats are causing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trumps-tariffs-threats-world-ceos-thoughts-trade-2024-11">jitters</a> around the world. With Trump set to take office on January 20, factories globally may be working overtime to ship out as much as they can before any potential tariffs kick in, economists say."There could be real front-loading of activity ahead of the enacting of tariffs," said Joe Lupton, a senior global economist at JPMorgan, on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.jpmorgan.com/research/email/scx/-miq4i59/b3efe732-ef66-49ae-ad3d-5390f5279831/KAL-1-87CAN94L">podcast</a> over the weekend."Just as businesses try to get ahead of that, you could actually see a little bit of pop in global manufacturing, China manufacturing, as we head into the first quarter," he added.The demand for imports, including those from China, could also come from the US itself."Trump's return could create a short-term boost to Chinese exports as US importers increase their purchases to get ahead of the tariffs," wrote Zichun Huang, a China economist at Capital Economics, in a Thursday note.Some of the front-loading may already be taking place.Exports from China grew 12.7% in October from a year ago — their fastest pace in two years and far higher than their 2.4% rise in September, according to official data. Several major ports in China faced delays in September due to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://worldwidelogisticsltd.com/2024/09/18/6908/">major typhoon</a> and the backlog spilled in October.<h2 id="194ec862-e0b6-4683-b8c7-95de349dd1e3">Exports could dip with focus on trade deficits</h2>Any a temporary boost in trade would just be that: temporary.Asian export growth could still dip into the negative zone in the second half of next year amid Trump's focus on reducing US bilateral trade deficits, wrote economists at Nomura in a Friday note.Six of the top 10 countries that run deficits with the US are Asian countries, including China, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and India."Higher US tariffs on Chinese exports could re-direct those exports into Asia, hurting local production," wrote the Nomura economists."More tit-for-tat trade retaliation, trade policy uncertainty and delayed policy easing in some Asian economies will also likely spill into domestic demand," they added.

Global manufacturing is poised for a temporary boom ahead of possible Trump tariffs, economists say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The relationship between Trump and Putin has long been a source of controversy.</li><li>Analysts say Trump could broker a Ukraine peace deal on terms favorable to Russia.</li></ul>With only a month to go before the presidential election, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-touts-russia-army-history-justify-deal-putin-over-ukraine-2024-9">Donald Trump's relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin</a> has once again come under the spotlight.In a forthcoming book, journalist <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bob-woodward-trump-unparalleled-danger-democracy-president-2022-10">Bob Woodward</a> says that the former president and Putin have a closer friendship than previously known.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-putin-woodward-book-secret-covid-tests-seven-calls-2024-10">excerpts</a> published by CNN and the Washington Post on Tuesday, Trump sent Putin COVID testing devices in early 2020 for his personal use.The book also says that Trump may have had up to seven phone calls with Putin since leaving office in 2021, citing a Trump aide.The Trump campaign denied the report, with spokesman Steve Cheung claiming it is "the work of a truly demented and deranged man who suffers from a debilitating case of Trump Derangement Syndrome."The Kremlin on Tuesday<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-covid-testing-devices-phone-calls-kremlin-rcna174632"> said </a>that Russia received the COVID-19 testing kits, though added that Russia sent kits to the US in return. It denied <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kremlin-says-trump-sent-putin-covid-tests-pandemic-denies-calls-2024-10">the seven calls that Woodward said Trump had with Putin.</a>While speculation and criticism about Trump's relationship with Russia's autocratic leader are nothing new, they are taking on a new significance amid the possibility of a second Trump presidency.<h2 id="ca1622e9-b987-46c8-878b-d263ec452e14">The Trump-Putin relationship</h2>Only weeks before Trump took office after his presidential victory, his administration-in-waiting was rocked by the publication of a dossier prepared by a former British spy.The report said that the Kremlin had secured compromising information that it could use to blackmail Trump.Trump's legal team said the dossier contained inaccurate information and that it breached his data protection rights.A subsequent inquiry by Special Counsel Robert Mueller found no evidence of coordination between Putin and the Trump campaign.<div type="image" title="Robert Mueller, who headed the FBI for 12 years, speaks into a microphone." height="2316" width="3500" msid="114090479" hostid="261" sizebytes="235904"></div>Throughout his presidency, however, Trump appeared friendly toward Putin and was reluctant to criticize Russia over reports of interference in the 2016 US presidential election.Trump has continued to praise Putin for being <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-praised-smart-putin-us-stupid-country-2022-2">"smart" </a>and<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-vladimir-putin-ukraine-invasion-justification-genius-savvy-2022-2"> "genius"</a> after he began his unprovoked invasion of Ukraine."I'd say that's pretty smart. He's taking over a country – really a vast, vast location, a great piece of land with a lot of people, and just walking right in," Trump <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/american_bridge/status/1496682759208775683?s=21">said</a> in 2022.<h2 id="8940f3b3-81cf-4fcd-b657-4036ec84ba83">A Ukraine deal</h2>The US, under President Joe Biden, has provided billions in aid to Ukraine to battle the invasion launched by Russia in 2022, which the president has characterized<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-normandy-d-day-ukraine-unchecked-tyranny/"> as a fight between</a> the forces of democracy and tyranny.Yet Trump has questioned why the US is helping Ukraine defend itself and had urged Republicans in Congress to block a Ukraine aid bill earlier this year, resulting in Ukraine suffering ammunition shortages.He has claimed that he'd be able to swiftly negotiate a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia if he became president.And though he's offered few details on how, a peace plan suggested by his running mate, JD Vance, on a podcast <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://thehill.com/opinion/international/4884798-the-trump-vance-plan-for-ukraine-is-insane/">in September indicates </a>that it'd involve Ukraine ceding the territory Russia holds and pledging neutrality.Trump could hypothetically compel Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to the deal or face US aid being cut off.Critics say it's a deal that would likely delight the Kremlin and infuriate US allies in Europe and beyond. It could also come back to haunt the US.<h2 id="8ad46fa4-95d4-47d5-919b-551c0fc2121b">There could be catastrophic consequences</h2>Philip Ingram, a former UK military intelligence officer, told Business Insider that a Trump deal with Putin that involved ceding Ukrainian territory could have catastrophic effects."I think if Trump forces Zelenskyy into a peace deal where he has to give up any territory, then that will stimulate the start of World War Three, and it will happen within a relatively short period of time," he said."And the economic impact that that will have across the globe will be enormous."The Ukraine war has already roiled markets for food, oil, gas, and other products, and wider conflict could have an even more devastating impact.Economist Kenneth Rogoff in an article for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/fandd/issues/2022/03/the-long-lasting-economic-shock-of-war">The International Monetary Fund</a> warned that the war is worsening "rising inflation, extreme poverty, increasing food insecurity, deglobalization, and worsening environmental degradation."William Pomerantz, an analyst at the Wilson Center in Washington, DC, told BI a deal would hugely damage US alliances."Trump believes that he can end the war in Ukraine in a week, but that would require conceding to all of Putin's demands," he said."That would essentially end our alliance with Europe and our international credibility."<h2 id="62871981-d67f-4884-a229-94adfdbc3ed3">Empowering China</h2>Some Republicans, including Vance, say the US needs to shift its stance away from helping Ukraine battle Russian aggression toward the more urgent threat they say China poses.Yet analysts <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/vance-trump-wants-us-focus-china-russia-one-big-problem-2024-7">told BI in July </a>that China's threat is closely linked to Russia's, with Putin and fellow Chinese autocrat Xi Jinping having formed a pact to weaken US global dominance.A Russian victory in Ukraine would likely embolden Xi to launch an invasion of US ally Taiwan, said Ingram.<div type="image" title="Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping talking." height="3452" width="5402" msid="114090480" hostid="261" sizebytes="395676"></div>If Xi believes that the West has "given in" regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine despite the money and diplomatic effort spent trying to defeat Russia, "we would very quickly see his invasion of Taiwan," he said.European leaders have also issued stark warnings that Russia, emboldened by its territorial victory in Ukraine, could seek to attack a NATO state in as little as five years.Spiralling conflicts in Asia, Europe, and the Middle East would have a devastating economic impact.<a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/jpm-stock">JPMorgan</a> CEO Jamie Dimon warned last month that investors are overlooking geopolitcal tensions as key risk that could significantly weaken the global economy."Geopolitics is getting worse, they are not getting better. There is chance for accidents in energy supply. God knows if other countries get involved. You have a lot of war taking place right now," Dimon told <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/24/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-warns-geopolitics-is-getting-worse.html">CNBC-TV18</a> during a visit to India.Dimon said that if geopolitical tensions elevate to instability and conflict, it will drag down the stock market in a way that pales in comparison to prior market crashes.<h2 id="cccccb09-431b-470e-9b1b-e688d2ce7308">Trump's words and actions differ</h2>Ingram pointed out that there has in the past been a gap between Trump's words and actions, and questioned whether Trump would be willing to risk the economic blowback on the US of canceling Ukraine aid, with arms manufacturing firms in swing states such as Pennsylvania massively boosted by the Congressional aid bills."What we're hearing from him, from a political perspective, but what he'd actually practically do will be different," said Ingram.It is also unclear Trump would continue to impose sanctions on Russia if he becomes president."It's much harder to predict him on that stuff," William Reinsch, a senior advisor at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.wsj.com/articles/tough-u-s-sanctions-packages-are-here-to-staywhether-its-harris-or-trump-11f884ba">The Wall Street Journal</a> in August. "I would say [he is] sort of inconstant. He tends to veer from one thing to another.'"Either way, Trump will have to deal with economic problems at home, including record debt levels and surging interest payments.Trump's economic plans are estimated to raise the federal debt level by double the figure expected if Kamala Harris is elected, according to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/sites/default/files/media/documents/CRFB_US%20Budget%20Watch%202024_The%20Fiscal%20Impact%20of%20the%20Harris%20and%20Trump%20Campaign%20Plans_Final_10062024.pdf">report</a> out this week.Harris would add $3.5 trillion to the projected fiscal debt through 2035, while Trump would add $7.5 trillion, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.crfb.org/papers/fiscal-impact-harris-and-trump-campaign-plans">Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget</a> analysis said."Our large and growing national debt threatens to slow economic growth, boost interest rates and payments, weaken national security, constrain policy choices, and increase the risk of an eventual fiscal crisis," it added.If elected for a second term, Trump has pledged to purge the US government of those he deems disloyal to his agenda if reelected and could surround himself with loyalists rather than career officials seeking to check his more impulsive decisions.Pomeranz said that Trump's policies in a second term would more openly reflect his admiration for Russia's leader, regardless of the US' economic plight."Putin is the autocratic leader that Trump most admires," he said. "Trump will present any end of hostilities [in Ukraine] as a personal victory, and Putin will validate this."

Trump's close relationship with Putin could come back to haunt the US

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple">Apple</a> will face hefty costs if Donald Trump sticks to his blanket tariffs pledge.</li><li>Trump previously said he's considering levies of more than 60% on Chinese products.</li></ul>Apple got a break the last time <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-media-truth-social-djt-tesla-stock-crypto-election-energy-2024-11?_gl=1*5t8f8c*_ga*NDk0OTkwMDg3LjE2NTQ3MDM2MDA.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDk5OTYwMS4xODkwLjEuMTczMTAwMzA1MS41NS4wLjA.">Donald Trump</a> was in office, but the president-elect's proposed tariffs could cost the tech giant a lot during his second term.CEO Tim Cook joined the chorus of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/business-leaders-react-donald-trump-winning-election-silicon-valley-2024-11">tech leaders congratulating Trump</a> on winning the 2024 presidential election with an X post on Wednesday. Maintaining a good relationship with the president-elect could be crucial for Apple, which secured government exemptions from costly tariffs during Trump's first term. It's unclear whether the company will be afforded the same benefits this time.If Trump follows through with his pledge to impose 10% <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-new-tariffs-election-2024-trade-war-joe-biden-2023-8">blanket tariffs</a> on all imported goods and 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, finance experts said the effect on Apple would be negative."If you think your iPhone is expensive now, it's probably going to get a whole heck of a lot more expensive if the company that makes it has to deal with a 60% tariff on whatever they import from China," LendingTree economist Jacob Channel told Business Insider.Although Apple has reportedly explored India as an alternative base for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-dependent-on-china-economy-manufacturing-problem-2023-9">iPhone production in Asia</a>, many of its products are still made in China. It also makes and sells its Mac computers in the country.Greater China is a key region for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-stock-earnings-report-call-live-updates-2024-10">Apple's revenue</a> — making up about 17% of its total sales in fiscal 2024. Recently, it has struggled in the area as local smartphone brands compete with the iPhone. The region still brought in $66.9 billion in 2024 sales — though that was down about 7.7% from the previous year.If China decides to retaliate against the Trump administration's proposed tariffs, it could also hurt Apple in the region."The new administration's trade policy can likely have a material impact on Apple, especially with its critical China dependencies both on the revenue and supply side," Dipanjan Chatterjee, a Forrester analyst, said.Apple didn't immediately respond to a request for comment on the outcome of the election from BI.A Trump win isn't all bad news for Apple. The tech company is currently <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-antitrust-lawsuit-justice-department-2024-3">facing a US antitrust lawsuit</a> that accuses it of maintaining an illegal monopoly on smartphones.Both Channel and Chatterjee told BI that the Trump administration will likely ease up on the antitrust pressure Big Tech companies, like Apple and Google, are dealing with."There probably will be, generally speaking, less scrutiny on those kinds of business practices," LendingTree's Channel said.Since Trump has yet to take office, Chatterjee said the world will have to "wait and see" what policies become official.

Apple's Tim Cook is going to have a headache on his hands if Donald Trump follows through on tariffs this time around

US presidential candidate <keyword id="19918985" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Donald-Trump" source="keywords">Donald Trump</keyword> has gone from suggesting that immigrants were poisoning the blood of the country to saying that he would welcome immigrants from “nice” countries like Denmark, Switzerland and Norway to his most recent plans of automatically granting green cards to <keyword id="22128571" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-graduates" source="keywords">foreign graduates</keyword> of US colleges in a rather short duration of time. Feeling a little whiplashed, anyone? Securing a green card in the US is a Herculean task whose difficulty is probably comparable to capturing and bringing back Cerberus. And this legal permanent residence, which can sometimes take decades, is only the first step to becoming a US citizen. Many Indians have tried, whether it’s through residing and working for decades, navigating rather lengthy paperwork or marrying someone who is already a US citizen. Sadly, many have failed too. However, should Donald Trump become the President of the United States again (and decide to keep his word), Indian students might actually have an easier time getting a green card. In a surprising shift from his previous stance on immigration, former President Donald Trump has unveiled a bold plan to automatically grant green cards to foreign graduates of US colleges if re-elected. This announcement, made during a podcast interview with Silicon Valley investors, marks a departure from Trump's traditionally tough rhetoric on immigration. During the podcast hosted by Chamath Palihapitiya and others, Trump expressed his commitment to retaining talent educated in American universities. He argued passionately for granting green cards as a standard benefit for graduates, regardless of the institution they attended. Trump emphasised that this policy should encompass graduates from renowned institutions like Harvard and MIT as well as from junior colleges across the country. “It’s so sad when we lose people from Harvard, MIT, the greatest schools, and lesser schools that are phenomenal schools also,” Trump lamented on the All-In Podcast. “I think you should get, automatically, as part of your diploma, a green card to be able to stay in this country and that includes junior colleges, too.” A green card affords its holder permanent residency rights in the United States and represents a crucial step towards citizenship. Trump's proposal, if enacted, could potentially introduce hundreds of thousands of new applicants for citizenship annually. Adding to the exodus of Indians who have already migrated to the US, over 200,000 Indian nationals are enrolled in institutes across the US in 2024, setting a new record. In fact, the significant surge in Indian students seeking education in the country between 2022-23 represented an unprecedented 35% increase from the year before that. The former US president specifically mentioned India and China, highlighting how talented individuals were unable to stay in the US because of current <keyword id="22151110" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="visa-policies" source="keywords">visa policies</keyword>. We can see how this may show him in a favourable light for green card aspirants. And while we’re not one to look a gift horse in the mouth, it is important to remember that Trump has made his discriminatory nature very public in several instances. Immigration has been a hot topic in the US political arena for decades. However, in recent years, the political right and others have been more divided than ever on this issue. Republicans have been calling for stringent immigration policies and strict border protections. Therefore, even if Trump does deliver what he promises, the packaging will most likely have fine print that might continue to make it difficult for students to attain green cards. In fact, the presidential candidate’s campaign press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, has already clarified that Trump's proposal would only apply to thoroughly vetted college graduates who can “make significant contributions” to America and would not undercut American wages or workers. She emphasised that Trump has outlined the most aggressive vetting process in US history to exclude "all communists, radical Islamists, Hamas supporters, America haters and public charges." Anyhow, Trump’s proposal starkly contrasts with Trump's previous hardline stance on immigration, which had been a cornerstone of his political platform. During his presidency, Trump advocated for stringent immigration policies, including the largest deportation campaign in US history, aimed at undocumented migrants, and building a wall on the southern borders of the country. Trump intensified restrictions on legal immigration amid the pandemic and his final year in office. He proposed halting all immigration to the US and deporting foreign students who didn't attend some in-person classes. A month before the 2020 election, Trump once more moved to tighten regulations on the <keyword id="20773661" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="H-1B-visa" source="keywords">H-1B visa</keyword> program. He has also criticised the H-1B visa program, which tech companies favour for hiring foreign skilled workers, as detrimental to American prosperity. The H-1B visa is a non-immigrant visa allowing US firms to employ foreigners in specialised occupations requiring theoretical or technical expertise. At a recent campaign event in Wisconsin, Trump criticised Biden's immigration policies, particularly lambasting a new program allowing undocumented spouses of US citizens to apply for permanent residence without leaving the country. Trump characterised immigration under Biden as an "invasion" and argued against discussing amnesty, urging instead for measures to halt what he perceives as an influx of unauthorised migrants. Estimates from the Department of Homeland Security suggest that approximately 11 million migrants currently reside in the US without authorization, a statistic that has been central to Trump's arguments against leniency in immigration policy.

Donald Trump strikes again: Ex-President proposes automatic green cards for foreign graduates of US colleges

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Mark Zuckerberg, Bill Gates and other CEOs and celebs are at a wedding pre-party in India this weekend.</li><li>Billionaire Mukesh Ambani's lavish bash may help them make inroads into the huge Indian market.</li></ul><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/the-fabulous-life-of-bill-gates-2014-9">Bill Gates</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg">Mark Zuckerberg</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sundar-pichai-google-alphabet-ceo-career-life">Sundar Pichai</a> are among the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bill-gates-mark-zuckerberg-among-expected-attendees-at-indian-wedding-2024-2#jay-y-lee-samsung-electronics-executive-chair-4">many US business leaders</a> and other celebrities such as Ivanka Trump invited to a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ambani-wedding-guests-celebrities-performance-dress-code-party-billionaire-2024-3">pre-wedding party</a> in India being thrown by Asia's richest person this weekend.The legion of technology, finance, and media bosses at <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ambani-richest-family-in-asia-india-lifestyle-home-wedding-photos-2018-12">Mukesh Ambani</a>'s three-day bash underscores not just his global influence, but India's growing importance to foreign companies.Ambani, who owns a 42% stake in Reliance Industries, ranks 11th on the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/billionaires/">Bloomberg Billionaires Index</a> with a $111 billion fortune, just behind Alphabet founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin. He's hosting this weekend's celebration for his youngest son, Anant, and his fiancée, Radhika Merchant.The centibillionaire's grip on domestic commerce makes him a powerful partner for Western companies trying to break into the Indian market.Meta, Alphabet, Qualcomm, and Intel have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/how-much-stake-of-reliance-meta-google-kkr-and-others-have-in-jio-platforms/slidelist/92539840.cms">all invested</a> in Reliance's telecoms subsidiary, Jio Platforms, in recent years.<h2>Vital growth frontier</h2>US executives are eager to cozy up to Ambani and Reliance because they see dollar signs when they look at India.<div type="image" title="Nita Ambani and Mukesh Ambani attend the Nupur Shikhare and Ira Khan wedding reception on January 13, 2024 in Mumbai, India." height="2480" width="3306" msid="108143798" hostid="261"></div>The Asian nation has long offered a plentiful supply of cheap labor, a deep pool of tech talent, and some level of familiarity as an English-speaking democracy.The prolonged shutdown of Chinese factories during the pandemic, the political and legal challenges of operating in China, and the country's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-heading-for-lost-decade-needs-reform-growth-japanification-2024-2">economic woes</a> have also spurred many US companies to spread their global footprint and rely more on India.India is also in the midst of a <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-india-10-trillion-worlds-third-largest-economy-2024-2">technological and financial revolution</a>. More and more Indians are embracing digital payments, online communications, and e-commerce as their incomes rise."What I do see in India is a lot of people entering the middle class, and I'm hopeful that we can convince some number of them to buy an iPhone," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple">Apple</a> CEO <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tim-cook">Tim Cook</a> said on an earnings call in May last year."I really feel that India is at a tipping point, and it's great to be there."On another earnings call in August, Cook noted that Apple has a "very, very modest" share of the world's second-largest smartphone market, creating a "huge opportunity" for the company in India.His comments help explain why Apple opened its first two stores in India last year, and its revenue from the country hit a new record in the fourth quarter.<div type="image" title="Tim Cook at the opening of Apple's first store in New Delhi in April 2023." height="2369" width="3385" msid="108143800" hostid="261"></div>On an April earnings call, Netflix co-CEO Ted Sarandos hailed India as a "big prize" given its "enormous population of entertainment-loving people."Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1l3pJlGr4ClCE4kGZZ0hIdunWWgkg9h0cU54Rg3bC3pE/edit">Meta</a> gave a shout-out to India in its recent annual report, revealing it was one of the three biggest sources of growth for active users last year.As for <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon">Amazon</a>, its India business attracted about 1 billion customer visits to its website during the month-long Great Indian Festival sales event in the fourth quarter, including 4 million who made their very first Amazon purchase.Moreover, Microsoft has touted India as a key driver of growth in LinkedIn members. Memberships jumped 19% year-on-year to 100 million there in the first quarter of 2023.<h2>Profits, partnerships, and parties</h2>India is clearly a key growth driver for some of America's largest companies, so it's no surprise they're keen to make further inroads into that market.The Ambani pre-wedding event offers a chance to break bread with one of India's most powerful men and his family, rub shoulders with a who's who of industry leaders, discuss and strike local deals, and enjoy what's bound to be one of this year's most extravagant parties.It's therefore no surprise that America's business elite are showing up in force.

Why Zuck, Ivanka Trump and the world's rich and famous are flocking to a lavish party in India

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's economic headwinds won't disrupt its status as a manufacturing powerhouse. </li><li>Strategists don't see another country dethroning China as the world's leading manufacturer. </li></ul><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-us-trade-markets-investors-policy-beijing-finance-outlook-2024-1">China's bearish headwinds</a> range from a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-beijing-lehman-moment-policy-deflation-economy-markets-property-2023-8">real estate crisis</a> and deflation to weak consumer confidence and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-global-markets-xi-deflation-property-housing-evergrande-developers-2023-8">crashing stocks</a>. Yet none of that necessarily means another country will be able to take China's place as the world's top manufacturing powerhouse.In a note Monday, Eurizon strategists Stephen Jen and Joana Freire said there's little evidence of de-globalization, even as US-China trade relations have deteriorated amid tariffs and geopolitical strains.Other countries such as Vietnam and Mexico — the latter which surpassed China as the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mexico-us-top-trading-partner-china-economic-nearshoring-trade-agreement-2024-2">US's top trade buddy in 2023</a> — have spearheaded a reordering of global trade flows. To that point, China's market share of total US imports has cratered, but Eurizon said the countries that have exported more to the US in China's place are themselves importing more than ever from China. "[I]n this trade spat, the US may have 'won' but China has not 'lost,'" Jen and Freire said. <h3>China's shifting trade focus</h3>Chinese exports' market share in the US has tumbled from 22% to 14% since 2017, and the Trump administration's policies have indeed had the intended effect of discouraging direct imports from China. Still, China remains the biggest exporter in the world, with a global market share of about 15%, according to Eurizon.Excluding distorted pandemic levels, that marks an all-time high. Beijing has engineered the "surprisingly successful" outcome, Jen and Freire said, despite tariffs and domestic headwinds by making heavy investments in third countries that the US prefers to import from, such as Mexico and Vietnam.China in turn has moved to export components to these countries for final assembly, allowing them to skirt US tariffs on Chinese-assembled products. "Indeed, China has invested and exported more in recent years to precisely the friend-shoring destinations to which the US has shifted its sourcing of imports," the Eurizon strategists said.China has also been able to ramp up exports to Europe, helping compensate for the loss in direct goods to the US. <h3>The 'next China' is China</h3>Eurizon strategists remain doubtful that another country could supplant China's role as the dominant world manufacturer.Not only does China's capacity far outpace its rivals, but export prices have been climbing in Mexico and Vietnam by 30% and 31%, respectively, over the last three years."We believe the fact that export prices have risen more rapidly than general inflation – a remarkable fact in a period of a strengthening dollar – indicates stresses and pressures on the manufacturing capacity in these countries, including shortages of appropriate workers, infrastructure, and transport," Eurizon strategists said. One figure illustrates the point: China has a manufacturing labor force of about 212 million, more than the combined economies of the US, the EU, Japan, Canada, Korea, India, Mexico, and Vietnam. It may be possible the world slowly reorients away from China, but smaller countries wouldn't be able to handle a rapid change that forces them to become manufacturing hubs on par with China. "In sum, we wonder if the 'next China' could actually be China: no other country has the manufacturing capacity to supplant China," Jen and Freire said. <h3>Domestic headwinds</h3>China may not be in danger of losing its trade status, but <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-us-trade-markets-investors-beijing-policy-stocks-finance-2024-2">its economy continues to trend in the wrong direction</a>. "The post-pandemic recovery has been anemic on the back of weak sentiment, and the country is digesting a prolonged period of property overinvestment," UBS strategists wrote in a note Monday, adding that China saw its first-ever deficit in foreign direct investment in 3Q23.In Eurizon's view, that loss of foreign direct investment may have been fueled by Beijing's policy mistakes of the last several years. Its faltering property market has pulled household wealth lower, hurt consumer confidence, and crimped demand and spending. All that manifested in the latest CPI report, which showed <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-deflation-global-markets-investors-beijing-inflation-policy-consumers-2024-2?utm_source=copy-link&amp;utm_medium=referral&amp;utm_content=topbar">the country's deflation problem is still getting worse</a>. Meanwhile, Chinese stocks have severely underperformed global equities, reflecting <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/china-outlook-economy-beijing-stock-market-rescue-property-real-estate-2024-1?_gl=1*wz3iev*_ga*MjA5NTAyMzYyOS4xNjYyNDcwMDc5*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcwNzc1Mzg2OS4xNjA5LjEuMTcwNzc1NjM5MC4xOS4wLjA.">the world's bearish view</a> on China. "Overall investor sentiment toward China remains depressed today," UBS strategists said. "Foreign fund allocations in Chinese assets have been consistently declining, all of which has pushed Chinese stock valuation to very cheap territory."Jen and Freire said Beijing can still use supportive, pragmatic policy to entice foreign investors back into China to eventually help it grow into the world's largest economy. "The world's attitude toward China has changed by as much as China's own domestic policies," they said. "By and large, China has so far managed to retain their dominant position as the world's pre-eminent manufacturing base."

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