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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Billionaire philanthropists are increasingly cutting checks for future doctors.</li><li>Some have cited medical professional shortages amid sky-high tuition costs. </li></ul>Giving future doctors a free ride to medical school is shaping up to be a trend across the billionaire donor circuit.On Tuesday, Bloomberg Philanthropies pledged $600 million to four historically black medical schools to address "health disparities and underrepresentation in the medical field," founder Michael Bloomberg said in a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.org/press/bloomberg-philanthropies-announces-largest-ever-gift-to-the-nations-four-historically-black-medical-schools/">statement</a>.Howard University College of Medicine, Meharry Medical College, and Morehouse School of Medicine will receive $175 million each, while the Charles R. Drew University of Medicine &amp; Science will get $75 million.Bloomberg has previously spoken about "a disturbing decline in life expectancy" and national doctor and nurse shortages amid steep medical school bills.Just last month, Bloomberg Philanthropies <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/bloomberg-johns-hopkins-medical-school-tuition-free-2024-7">gifted $1 billion</a> to cover Johns Hopkins tuition for roughly two-thirds of current and incoming medical students.In 2020, the organization donated $100 million to the same four historically black med schools to help "reduce the student debt of nearly 1,000 future Black doctors," it said.Bloomberg isn't alone.In February, a widow and former pediatrics professor gifted $1 billion — which she'd inherited from her late husband in Berkshire Hathaway stock — to a Bronx medical school, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ruth-gottesman-donates-1-billion-medical-school-free-tuition-forever-2024-2">covering tuition in perpetuity</a> in hopes of attracting a more diverse applicant pool.Despite the recent big bucks going to future doctor's tuitions, the practice is a philanthropic approach dating back years.In 2018, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/home-depot-co-founder-ken-langone-paid-nyu-med-school-tuition-2019-4">Kenneth Langone</a> — the Home Depot cofounder — and his wife, Elaine, gave $100 million to cover tuition at the NYU Grossman School of Medicine, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/bloomberg-philanthropy-john-hopkins-university-53ed82c14c4d4b07cb2675a9ca1829f9">the AP reported</a>. In 2023, they gave another $200 million to a different NYU med school.And the record executive <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/david-geffen-yacht-net-worth-real-estate-rising-sun-2019-8#geffen-has-donated-hundreds-of-millions-of-dollars-to-educational-institutions-museums-and-gay-rights-causes-17">David Geffen</a> — for whom UCLA's School of Medicine is named — has contributed $146 million towards merit scholarships, the outlet reported.

The hot trend for billionaire donors: paying for medical school tuition

It took something surprisingly small — something that's been described as "teeny tiny" and "ultra-cropped" — to propel <keyword id="19948011" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Prada" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Prada" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Prada">Prada</keyword> to its place as one of the year's few luxury winners. In fact, it measures under 10 inches long. <keyword id="20885719" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Miu-Miu" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Miu Miu" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Miu Miu">Miu Miu</keyword>'s micro miniskirt, which debuted in 2021 and subsequently went viral, taking over both TikTok and magazine front covers, is emblematic of the brand's show-stopping couple of years — and has no doubt helped its parent company, Prada, do what few luxury companies have been able to do this year: grow. "I think the 'miracle' at Prada is Miu Miu," Luca Solca, a senior analyst at Bernstein, told Business Insider. Thanks to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/miu-miu-revenue-jumps-93-gen-z-asia-sales-prada-2024-7">Miu Miu's hot streak</a>, as well as a series of smart business moves at Prada itself — a focus on a controlled retail pipeline and store productivity, plus some experienced new hires — the company is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/zara-inditex-pandora-thrive-amid-luxury-downturn-aspirational-consumer-trends-2024-9">bucking negative luxury trends</a>. It's selling well in Asia, its stock is up, and investors are excited. Net revenue for the first half of the year was 14% higher than in the same period in 2023 and 34% more than 2022. At luxury bellwethers LVMH and Kering, first-half sales fell 1% and 11%, respectively, compared to last year.Its stock is up more than 30% year-to-date, even more than that of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hermes-became-ultimate-status-symbol-2024-2">Hermès, luxury's perennial market leader</a>. Along with Moncler, it's one of only two buy-rated luxury stocks at HSBC. The 111-year-old, family-run, Milanese leather goods shop turned cutting-edge fashion superhouse is now enjoying one of its greatest runs in history. <h2>The trendy little sister</h2>As any elder sibling knows well, sometimes the flashy, fun younger sister can outshine even the most well-prepared eldest. Miu Miu is doing just that. The more experimental brand has become the "It" girl of the fashion industry. It's number two on The Lyst Fashion Index, a quarterly measure of the hottest fashion brands. Searches for Miu Miu are up 47% this year on luxury resale platform The RealReal. The micro minis that stormed the runway in 2021, a sneaker collab with New Balance, and the quilted Wander bags have become must-have looks. That's translated into impressive results: <keyword id="19957111" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="retail-sales" source="keywords">Retail sales</keyword> were up 50% in 2023 and 86% in the first half of this year. Last quarter, website traffic was up 110% year over year, Stifel's Rogerio Fujimori reported in his July note. The brand will likely hit $1 billion in revenue this year. <div type="image" title="Miu Miu micro miniskirt" height="3109" width="4663" msid="113815737" hostid="261"></div>Part of it is the brand's messaging. "Miu Miu is resonating with consumers because of a savvy mix of product and communication marketing," Solca said. In a recent note, he highlighted the brand's events — a tennis club, literary club, and film series — that go beyond just fashion to form a "cultural aesthetic." Miu Miu has embraced stars (Sydney Sweeney and Gigi Hadid were featured in recent campaigns), which has energized its following. The brand has also managed to tap into Asian markets — one of the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-luxury-retail-sales-slowdown-brands-fashion-2024-7">most challenging sectors for luxury brands</a>. Again, some smart marketing has helped. The brand enlisted K-pop icons as ambassadors and dressed Chinese stars Lexie Liu, Zhao Jinmai, and Wu Yanshu. It also increased spending on Little Red Book, a social media platform in China, and threw events in Tokyo, Taipei, and Nanjing. In short — pun intended — you can't get trendier than Miu Miu right now, and being trendy is good for business. <h2>The business behind the boom</h2>But Miu Miu's popularity, as attention-grabbing as it is, is only part of the story. The brand accounted for 15% of Prada's sales last year. HSBC analysts called its growth a "(big) cherry on the cake" — the cake being Prada (which didn't respond to a request for comment from Business Insider for this story). Behind Miu Miu's Mary Jane shoes and Arcade bags is a success story at its parent company. The group's namesake line is growing, albeit at a slower and steadier pace. Prada's retail sales were up 3% in the first half of the year compared to last year and 7% in 2023. It's been among Lyst's top five hottest brands since 2022. This didn't happen by accident: In 2017, Prada committed to a turnaround strategy following a few losing yearsand a drop in profitability. At more than 100 years old, Prada hadn't entered the new millennium: Its full product line wasn't available through e-commerce, and its advertising wasn't digitized. "In 2015, the tide really turned for them," Jelena Sokolova, a senior analyst for Morningstar, told Business Insider. "They fared worse than the industry: Sales were negative for a number of years; their earnings plummeted." In response, Prada focused on retail, a channel in which it can control prices and cut back on wholesale, which now represents only 11% of sales. It made an effort to cut down on discounts — a problem that has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-burberry-became-fashions-biggest-fail-stock-drop-ceo-ousting-2024-8">plagued labels like Burberry</a> and Gucci and can lead to diminishing brand perception. At its retail stores, new CEO Andrea Guerra, who arrived in 2023 from LVMH, has drilled down on productivity, or how much money each square foot of retail space generates, by launching in-store installations, forming one-to-one relationships between sales associates and customers, and infusing stores with wearable pieces and collaborations. The company closed stores that weren't performing and renovated the ones that were. It's worked: Retail productivity has increased 32.5% between 2019 and 2023. <div type="image" title="Prada store" height="3333" width="5000" msid="113815742" hostid="261"></div>There has also been a slew of management changes. In 2020, the company brought on Raf Simons, heralded as one of the biggest stars in the design world, as co-creative director, sharing the title with Muccia Prada — the company's billionaire heiress who The New York Times has <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/04/style/miu-miu-chanel-louis-vuitton-paris-fashion-week.html">referred</a> to as "the most influential woman in fashion." Prada now has more time to use her keen sense of design at Miu Miu. In the years following, it recruited talent from LVMH and Goldman Sachs to join its top ranks. And then there is the sheer cyclicality of fashion and the fact that, after a few years of being less-than-hot, Prada is once again on the rise. It has embraced the 1990s and Y2K aesthetic — a heyday for Prada — popular with Gen Z and was the most searched brand among the demographic on The RealReal. Hit products pushed the profitable leather goods category to revenues of more than $2 billion last year. There was a reimagining of the early 2010s it-bag, the Galleria, complete with a Scarlett Johansson-led campaign. Other handbag rereleases, like that of the Nylon, have taken off, while new purse styles like the Buckle and Arqué got callouts in last year's earnings report. That momentum gave the brand an upper hand going into the luxury downturn. "People prioritize which brands they want to spend on. With a limited budget, first, you drop the ones that were not hot to begin with," Sokolova said. <h2>Can Prada's hot streak last?</h2>Just as fashion comes in, it can come out. And Prada's story — particularly Miu Miu's rapid-fire growth — in some ways mimics that of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gucci-sales-profit-reputation-falling-luxury-kering-michele-china-2024-5">Gucci's hype-driven rise and plummeting fall under Alessandro Michele</a>. "You kind of become a victim of your own success," Sokolova said. Both Prada and Miu Miu are susceptible to volatility, though for different reasons. Miu Miu is still relatively small, meaning its brand identity is not yet established enough to withstand the whims of consumers. CEO Guerra has acknowledged that such incredible growth can lead to a challenge. "There appears to be a glass ceiling," Solca wrote in a recent note. "Being prominent brings fatigue: after a while, consumers feel they have seen and done enough with these brands and move on." Prada, meanwhile, is more exposed in the cyclical ready-to-wear category — which makes up 32% of sales — than other brands like Gucci and YSL. But there are signs of continued growth: Miu Miu is adding 10 to 15 stores next year, while Prada is adding five to 10, the company has said. The brand's retail footprint is particularly underpenetrated in the US. The company's beauty business is still nascent. Last year, it launched skincare and makeup through a partnership with L'Oréal, and there is more money to be made in that sector. With so much control of its sales chain, the company can raise prices and limit overexposure through low-end collaborations or expansion into cheap categories. Plus, the slowdown hasn't happened yet: Miu Miu website traffic and sales continued to grow between the first and second quarters, and the company maintains it's not a flash in the pan. "This is a result of many years of work on the brand, on the products, on the people," Guerra said about Miu Miu's success on the company's most recent earnings call. Meanwhile, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prada-white-tank-top-status-symbol-2024-2">Prada has maintained its brand value</a>. But the woman Miuccia Prada herself knows the pressure is on. "I was very nervous for this show," she told reporters backstage at the line's fashion show earlier this month about the new collection, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/20/style/prada-fendi-milan-fashion-week.html">The New York Times reported</a>. "Much more than usual." September 30, 2024 — An earlier version of this story misspelled the name of Miuccia Prada.

How Prada is beating the odds and bucking the luxury slump 

When <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wendys-surge-dynamic-pricing-controversy-fast-food-cost-uber-airlines-2024-2">Wendy's ignited the internet's ire in February</a> with its dynamic-pricing proposal, the fast-food chain was forced to do some haphazard cleanup. It insisted that, despite rumors, it wouldn't implement surge pricing and charge more for burgers during busy times. Instead, it said it might offer discounts during slower times of the day and roll out promos based on the weather. The new framing made sense — who doesn't love a deal — but the overall notion was exhausting. Since when do we need to gamify the cost of fries?Thanks to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-prices-inflation-sticking-interest-rate-hikes-stock-market-2024-5">inflation</a>, people have found themselves in the grocery aisle or a restaurant or a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-used-cars-are-still-so-expensive-2023-9">car lot</a> over the past few years wondering just what is going on with prices. Maybe they're not sure exactly how much the item in question used to be, but they know it sure wasn't this. And now that uncertainty has been compounded by tech-enabled (and greed-fueled) <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/theme-parks-dynamic-pricing-legoland-madame-tussauds-merlin-entertainments-2024-3">dynamic pricing</a>, which is creeping across the economy. Want to know what your Uber ride or concert ticket or <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/surge-pricing-increasingly-being-used-at-restaurants-and-theaters-2023-3">bowling-alley visit</a> is going to run you? It depends! Even Walmart is testing out digital price tags, which it says make life easier for associates and improve the customer experience. There's been speculation that the tags could be used for variable pricing, though Walmart says its "every day low price" strategy isn't changing.All these changes add up to one pervasive sensation: America is suffering from a major case of price fatigue.It's incredibly frustrating not to know what anything costs, and the situation is only getting worse. While inflation is cooling, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stores-cutting-prices-summer-list-walmart-target-amazon-aldi-walgreens-2024-6">return of discounts</a> doesn't mean a reversion to pre-pandemic prices. People are still on edge that high inflation could rear its ugly head again. The <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-quietly-picking-your-pocket-with-personalized-pricing-2024-7">use of surge pricing</a> is extra anxiety-inducing."If you're going to introduce something that's new and that may give a pause or a hesitation, you might not want to necessarily do it when people are very price sensitive," said Carly Fink, the head of research and strategy at Provoke Insights, a market-research company. "If it was a great economy and everyone felt like, 'Oh, yeah, I have the money to spend,' I would assume they would be less nervous."It goes without saying that inflation has been a problem in recent years. The consumer price index is up by more than 20% since February 2020. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cost-of-living-what-is-middle-class-housing-market-2024-4">Financially and psychologically</a>, it's a pain.When wages don't rise along with inflation, it hurts people's buying power and forces them to change their budgets and spending habits. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-housing-food-alice-rent-poverty-healthcare-wage-growth-cpi-2024-6">Low-income people in particular suffer</a>, and workers blame their employers' greed for their wages not budging. Even when pay does rise with prices, everything costing more still feels like a loss. Inflation is stressful, and it can make planning extra challenging. If prices are going up, how are you supposed to know how much money you need to save for your next vacation — let alone <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/retirement-social-security-gen-z-millennials-uncertainty-fears-pensions-2024-4">stash away for retirement</a>?And even as inflation settles down, the tool employed to fight it — higher interest rates — adds another layer of uncertainty. If you're in the market for a house, it's tough to gauge whether you ought to wait for mortgage rates to come back down or whether you should pull the trigger now. It's a similar story if you're in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/car-prices-falling-forecast-outlook-new-used-electric-vehicle-market-2024-6">the market for a new car </a>— maybe prices have come down some but interest rates have not, and it's hard to know what the right move is. Fink said her surveys indicate that even though inflation is calming, consumers are still nervous about it, with nearly two-thirds ranking it in April as one of their top two concerns. A similar proportion said they'd become more budget-conscious than they were six months earlier. We're looking at a very "price sensitive" and "worried" consumer, she said, adding, "It's very hard for them to keep up with everything that's happening."Even relatively small-ticket items can come with a price tag that provokes a sense of whiplash. A "good" price for something today may have seemed outlandish five years ago, and it's understandable to wonder whether today's price is just as fleeting."I absolutely understand shoppers who have price fatigue. It just beats you down, and certain commodities have increased so quickly," said Jon Hauptman, the founder and president of Price Dimensions, a retail consultancy. "Think of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/pepsico-pepsi-high-prices-putting-off-us-shoppers-sales-america-2024-2">carbonated soft drinks</a>. The whole idea of what's a good price for a 12-pack of carbonated soft drinks has changed dramatically over the past few years."Consumers tend to be price sensitive, meaning their buying behaviors change as prices go up or down, though they're not very price aware. Most people can name the specific prices of only a handful of things at the grocery store that they buy all the time, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/egg-prices-falling-to-normal-after-high-inflation-groceries-food-2023-6">like milk or eggs</a>. Overall, however, they intuitively sense that prices are increasing, and broad-based inflation means purchases big and small require a second thought."It forces shoppers to shop more carefully," Hauptman said.The proliferation of dynamic pricing — meaning prices that fluctuate based on market conditions such as supply and demand — makes the landscape harder to navigate. The prices of a variety of products and services aren't just different from what they were a year ago; they may be different from what they were a day ago or even a few minutes ago.Dynamic pricing isn't new. For better or for worse, it's well established in some industries. People have long been used to it when they're booking flights or hotels, for example. It can make sense in some of these settings, like hospitality, said Timothy Webb, an assistant professor of hospitality business management at the University of Delaware who's worked on pricing strategies for sports teams and tourism spots. "It really centers around the perishable nature of the product and that its capacity is constrained," he said. A hotel can't store up more rooms to rent out during the summer, so raising prices for peak times lets it stay afloat all year, financially, and may help prevent overcrowding. Conversely, dropping prices during the slow season means it's not sitting empty all winter. Still, nobody likes <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/when-is-the-cheapest-time-to-book-flights-for-christmas-2023-10">paying extra for a Christmas flight</a> or their <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/airlines-and-hotels-tacking-on-extra-fees-during-travel-season-2023-5">summer hotel room</a>. Yes, happy hours and early-bird specials have been around forever, but the idea of paying extra for a restaurant reservation or meal during busy times is not great. The supply-demand forces that make peak-time Ubers outrageously expensive or Taylor Swift tickets prohibitively pricey may be real, but that doesn't mean consumers feel they are fair or good.People often interpret dynamic pricing as a mechanism for companies to maximize profits. Provoke Insights' research shows that most consumers still aren't super familiar with the concept, but when asked what they would do if a restaurant they visit implements it, two-thirds say they would eat there less often. A survey from consumer analytics platform CivicScience found that a majority of consumers say they agree with the statement that dynamic pricing is "price gouging."Instead of focusing on getting a discount when they pop into Starbucks during a slow period, people think about the experience of trying to order a Lyft in the rain. They're not wrong to feel this way — making money is how companies talk about their pricing choices to Wall Street."Companies have framed this debate around profit maximization. And so as a result, people see it as zero-sum," Ravi Dhar, a professor of management and marketing and the director of the Center for Customer Insights at the Yale School of Management. "People don't like the fluctuations because you always feel like somehow it's exploiting you."Constant prices aren't guaranteed and never have been. Discounts and promotions are well-trodden retail tactics, and the invisible hand of the market moves on the principles of supply and demand. Every business wants to charge a higher price to customers who can and will pay more and a lower price to those who can't and won't, said Z. John Zhang, a marketing professor at Wharton who focuses on pricing. We can't blame consumers for feeling like it adds uncertainty to an already tumultuous world, he said, but this is sort of the way things go."If you look at the big picture, there is actually no presumption for a constant price for a long time for a particular product, and the reason is that's not what prices are supposed to do," he said. "What price is supposed to do is to mediate between demand and supply to make sure that the product is really delivered into the hands of the right people, the right customers."That sounds fine and good, except we do not live in a world where markets are perfectly efficient, and nobody wants to be constantly watching for changing prices throughout their day. Many industries are uncompetitive, meaning consumers aren't even getting a fair shake. Plenty of companies can move their prices, whether by using dynamic prices or downright raising prices, because they're the only game in town. That's true for airlines and car-rental companies and wireless providers. It's why if you call your internet company to threaten to change services unless your bill stops creeping up, the answer you'll probably get is "LOL good luck with that.""With the airlines, if you asked people 30 years ago if they wanted to pay different prices, they'd be like, 'No way, it's not fair,'" Webb said. "But the airline also knows that, hey, there's limited providers here, so competition does matter, and if you don't want to pay, well, that's fine. We're still at this price."Technology is a modern-day X-factor as well. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-amazon-adjusts-its-prices-2015-1">Amazon changes the prices of various items</a> throughout the day. Both Uber and DoorDash have been <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/uber-controversial-pricing-charging-more-based-on-neighborhood-2017-5">accused of displaying higher prices</a> for certain customers with low phone batteries or those with iPhones, though both companies have denied this. Today's Blue Light Special is no longer in a store aisle on a Wednesday at noon; it's on a website that knows exactly who you are and is intimately familiar with your spending habits. Companies can use your data to identify an exact price for you, which may work in your favor but may not."Because of this optimization, it reduces trust in the company," Dhar said. "I don't trust them to do things that are good for me. They're going to do things that are good for them."If companies were more transparent about what they were doing and how, it might ease some discomfort. But many aren't.There are no easy solutions here. Most economists agree that government-mandated price fixing is a bad idea. Achieving a more competitive economy is a long-term project that won't happen overnight. Inflation is getting better, but the threat of it getting worse again still looms. The answer to getting accustomed to high prices is basically to forget what those numbers were in 2019. We didn't even get into hidden fees, another layer in the what-does-anything-even-cost-and-why maze.You can't fault anyone for feeling tired of it all. After so much economic uncertainty, and with more uncertainty ahead, we're all in our feelings about prices. A prix fixe menu sounds pretty good right now, just to, for a moment, know what we're getting into cost-wise and enjoy a meal.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/author/emily-stewart">Emily Stewart</a> is a senior correspondent at Business Insider, writing about business and the economy.

The exhausting new shopping trend that's breaking all of our brains

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bank of America predicts commodities will outperform bonds until the end of the decade.</li><li>A structural rise in inflation could drive demand for commodities like oil and gold, according to the bank.</li></ul>Commodities are the place to be for investors between now and the end of the decade, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/bac-stock?miRedirects=1">Bank of America.</a>A structural <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/personal-finance/investing/what-is-inflation">rise in inflation</a> suggests the "commodity bull is just starting," Bank of America strategists led by Jared Woodard said in a note on Thursday.Commodities such as oil and gold have long been considered reliable inflation hedges, and investors will demand them more if Woodard's forecast of a steep rise in inflation plays out.Highlighting that inflation has been subdued over the past 20 years at around 2% because of trends in globalization and technology, Woodard said that it could soon revert to the inflation trends seen before the 2000s when prices rose at an average annual clip of about 5%."Reversal of those forces means a structural shift back to 5%," Woodard said. The consumer price index rose 3.4% in 2023, and July data shows the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-consumer-price-index-in-july-fed-interest-rates-2024-8#:~:text=The%20consumer%20price%20index%20increased,lower%20than%20June's%203.0%25%20read.">index rising at an annualized rate of 2.9%.</a>While it may be difficult to imagine a slowdown in the continued trend of technological disruption pressuring prices lower, deglobalization has grown in recent years.From <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-trade-war-china-tariffs-taxes-us-economy-deficit-impact-2024-5">US tariffs on China products like EVs and steel</a> to restoring efforts by America's semiconductor industry, these policies are a headwind for falling prices, especially as restoring efforts rely on labor that costs considerably more relative to emerging market countries.Bank of America said commodities could generate annualized returns of 11% "as debt, deficits, demographics, reverse-globalization, AI and net zero policies all inflationary."<div type="image" title="A chart depicting the price performance of commodities" height="427" width="528" msid="112997709" hostid="261" sizebytes="17206"></div>Those potential returns mean commodities represent a better asset class to allocate the 40% of an investor's 60/40 portfolio that is typically reserved for bonds.Woodard highlighted that commodity indexes have generated an annualized return of 10%-14% even amid falling inflation and a dovish Federal Reserve, compared to just a 6% return for the popular Bloomberg Aggregate bond index.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> has been a particularly strong force driving the solid performance of the commodities sector. The precious metal has surged about 21% so far this year to record highs, and is up 35% since inflation started to surge at the start of 2022.On the other hand, the oil prices haven't held up very well relative to gold. The price of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti">WTI crude oil</a> is trading at $74 per barrel, about the same as it was in August 2021.

The 'bull is just starting': Commodities are a better bet than bonds for the rest of the 2020s, BofA says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Since 2020, wages have outpaced inflation for the majority of American workers.</li><li>Average wages for most US workers are up roughly 25.7% since 2020, while inflation is up about 20.9%.</li></ul>American consumers have been frustrated by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-prices-inflation-sticking-interest-rate-hikes-stock-market-2024-5">high prices</a> over past years, but there's some good news: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wage-growth-faster-than-inflation-first-time-2-years-2023-6">wages</a> have outpaced inflation since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.Since 2020, average hourly wages for most US workers have risen faster than the consumer price index, meaning income has maintained its purchasing power against rising prices.Furthermore, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wage-growth-faster-than-inflation-first-time-2-years-2023-6">real wages</a> — earnings adjusted for inflation — have been positive over the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.epi.org/blog/average-wages-have-surpassed-inflation-for-12-straight-months/">past year</a>, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, meaning workers are gaining purchasing power.But while wage gains show promising signs for US workers, it can take longer for consumers' perspectives to shift; many Americans are still reckoning with past years' <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cost-of-living-what-is-middle-class-housing-market-2024-4">sticker shock</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-crisis-unaffordable-high-rent-prices-cost-burdened-renters-cities-2024-7">high housing costs</a>.<h2 id="aa403d6e-35c8-4365-aee2-c63b2d01f926">Economic data vs consumer sentiment</h2>Nearly four in five US voters said price increases were the top source of their financial stress in the last three months, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/7aa63450-5ff2-4ea3-b639-1a21db372527?emailId=97961c1a-deb9-48c2-a1b8-95b4d7d4c1d0&amp;segmentId=1ce3de53-bbd6-f782-fb6e-1124c8f8297f">FT-Michigan Ross Poll</a>.While wage gains have outpaced inflation, it can be difficult for consumers to feel the growth, and plenty of people still miss the "good old days" of lower prices.According to Bankrate Analyst Sarah Foster, that's because economists and consumers see prices differently.Economists pay attention to inflation indicators which measure the rate of change of prices. Meanwhile, many consumers focus on the price levels for individual goods (like grocery store receipts) and how they compare to previous years, Foster said.While inflation is now slowing, many Americans still feel burdened by what they see as a jump in the price tags of various items over the past four years."They remember how much it used to cost to fill up their gas tank; they remember how much it used to cost to buy a cart full of groceries," Foster said.Since 2020, prices have risen 20.9%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, across that same period, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers — most US workers — have risen roughly 25.7%.Furthermore, the 25.7% increase in hourly wages for production and nonsupervisory workers is slightly ahead of the 23.1% increase in wages for all private workers, meaning employees have gained a bit more than their bosses.That wage growth is due in part to a tight labor market and state-level minimum wage increases from 2019 to 2023, according to the nonprofit think tank <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="https://www.epi.org/publication/swa-wages-2023/">Economic Policy Institute</a>.Nonetheless, wage growth has differed across industries, and while average growth is strong, high prices can be crippling for those whose incomes have paced behind inflation, Foster said.Furthermore, Foster said that industries with strong wage growth, like food services, leisure, and hospitality, are often low-paying jobs to begin with, meaning people are already sensitive to higher prices.<h2 id="2a0eff72-8496-4bfb-8b12-31cbd2fd5faa">Wages are still beating inflation</h2>Consumer prices rose 3.0% year-over-year in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-june-prices-food-energy-fed-interest-rate-cuts-2024-7#:~:text=The%20consumer%20price%20index%20increased,%25%20month%2Dover%2Dmonth.">June</a>, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the lowest rate in a year and far below the pandemic-era peak of 9.1% year-over-year in June 2022.Meanwhile, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers increased 4.0% year-over-year in June, continuing a yearlong trend of hourly wage growth beating out inflation.Since spring 2023, year-over-year wage growth for production and nonsupervisory workers has consistently been above inflation.In another positive sign for people's wallets, prices also decreased 0.1% from May to June, marking the first month-over-month drop since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.There were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-costs-keep-rising-inflation-goes-down-eggs-tickets-insurance-2024-7">some price outliers</a>, such as uncooked beef, which was up 10.5% year-over-year in June. Nonetheless, inflation has come down a lot since 2022.Still, prices themselves have not. Overall, price levels are up roughly 7% since inflation's peak in 2022. Yet, wages are up about 10% in the same period, highlighting that income has maintained its power.And higher price levels can be good for the economy. The Federal Reserve targets a 2% inflation rate, so even in a healthy economy, price levels are rising — what matters is managing the rate at which they increase and how that compares to rising incomes.In fact, broad and prolonged deflation — falling prices — is a recipe for high unemployment, economist Paul Krugman wrote in a July 16 <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/07/16/opinion/inflation-prices-economy.html">New York Times column</a>.While US consumers adjust to higher prices, strong wage growth should help ease affordability concerns, Krugman wrote.Have you had a pay increase but still feel burdened by high prices? Please reach out at <a target="_blank" class="" href="mailto:jtowfighi@businessinsider.com">jtowfighi@businessinsider.com</a>.

Wages have outpaced inflation since 2020 but many consumers still feel burdened by prices 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs says China's urban pets could outnumber the country's toddlers by 2030.</li><li>The investment bank says this could lead to a $12 billion market for pet food.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-population-birthrate-hospitals-give-up-delivering-babies-obstetrics-2024-3">China's baby bust</a> could see its urban pet population outnumbering the number of toddlers by 2030, investment bank Goldman Sachs wrote in a July 28 report."We expect to see stronger momentum in pet ownership amid a relatively weaker birth rate outlook and higher incremental household pet penetration from the younger generation," Goldman Sachs said in its report.According to Goldman Sachs' forecasts, China will have more than 70 million urban pets by 2030.That is nearly double the 40 million children under the age of four that China is expected to have in the same year, the report said while citing data from the country's National Bureau of Statistics.The rise in pet ownership, the bank said, could help push China's pet food market to $12 billion by 2030.People having more pets than babies shouldn't be surprising considering how China is presently grappling with a demographic crisis.In 2022, the world's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/india-overtake-china-worlds-most-populous-nation-2023-un-2022-7#:~:text=However%2C%20UN%20figures%20show%20that,billion%20over%20the%20same%20period.">second-most populous</a> country revealed that its population <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-population-shrinking-first-time-60-years-2023-1?_gl=1*cl9zjp*_ga*MTcxMTUxODY3LjE3MDA1Mjc5MjA.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcwMjI4MDM5MS4yOS4xLjE3MDIyODA2NDQuNjAuMC4w">shrunk for the first time</a> since the early 1960s.China's population shrank again in 2023, with the number of deaths exceeding the number of births by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202401/t20240117_1946605.html">2.08 million people</a>.The drop in births has even resulted in some Chinese hospitals deciding to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-population-birthrate-hospitals-give-up-delivering-babies-obstetrics-2024-3">shut down their obstetrics departments</a> altogether.According to the most recently available official data, the number of maternity hospitals in China went from <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xwzb/webcontroller.do?messagelist=1&amp;titleSeq=11164">807 in 2020</a> to <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://www.nhc.gov.cn/xcs/s3574/202205/71ecabbcfa8f46ec920f1b7545cf02f0.shtml">793 in 2021</a>."I am not very surprised to hear about Goldman Sachs' forecast," said <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://cola.unh.edu/person/lin-zhang">Lin Zhang</a>, a University of New Hampshire professor who studies entrepreneurship and the digital economy in China. "We could observe similar trends in early developed countries in Europe and East Asia."Pets, she said, also play an important cultural role as companions to unmarried and childless youths, and seniors whose children don't live with them."In general, I think China's going through a cultural transformation related to its rising living standards that people start to find cultural meaning in pets instead of treating them more as functional animals like in traditional agricultural society," Zhang added.<h2 id="774ba749-2bdd-4b5c-a85c-48466bdff58f">Cash gifts and subsidies haven't stopped China's baby bust</h2>The ticking demographic time bomb has become a top concern for Chinese policymakers, who have pulled out all stops to arrest the decline in births.Besides <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-end-of-chinas-one-child-policy/">axing its controversial one-child policy</a>, China has sought to encourage childbearing by dangling <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-reward-cash-bride-25-years-marriage-babies-population-2023-8">cash gifts to newly married couples</a> as well as <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-population-demographics-birthrate-fertility-subsidies-incentives-ivf-betrothal-gift-2023-10">subsidies for fertility treatments and childcare</a>.But the incentives don't seem to have changed the minds of Chinese women, who told Business Insider in February that they were turned off by the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/women-china-not-having-kids-tell-us-why-2024-2">hefty financial costs</a> of starting a family."Let's face it, having a child is like owning an investment with no guaranteed return for at least 18 years," said Chinese venture capital analyst Bihan Chen, 26, told BI.Content creator Emily Huang, 29, told BI that the biggest thing on her mind right now is how she's going to fund her own retirement. Having children, she said, would make that goal even more distant."I wouldn't choose to spend a part of my income on children because it's expensive," Huang said. "I feel like with my current level of income, I can't retire comfortably anytime soon."<h2 id="01936a53-633d-4353-9779-f67125c45bb0">The boom in pet spending is not just a China-only phenomenon</h2>To be sure, China is not the only country that is expected to see a boost in pet-related expenditure.In the US, more households have pets than children. According to a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nar.realtor/blogs/economists-outlook/a-stunning-stat-there-are-more-american-households-with-pets-than-children">2023 report</a> by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), 40% of American households had children in 2022, down from 48% in 2002.In contrast, pet ownership has increased, particularly since the COVID-19 pandemic. The NAR report states that 70% of American households owned a pet in 2022, up from 56% in 1988.In March 2023, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/company/press/global-pet-industry-to-grow-to-500-billion-by-2030-bloomberg-intelligence-finds/">Bloomberg Intelligence</a> published its Pet Economy Report, which forecasts that the global pet industry is expected to increase in size from $320 billion to $500 billion by 2030 as the worldwide pet population continues to grow.According to the report's authors, the surge in spending isn't solely due to an increase in pets per se but also because pets are living longer."Increased pet nutrition is leading to longer pet lives around the world," Ann-Hunter van Kirk, a senior biopharmaceutical analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence, said in a statement about the report."With this comes an increased need for spending relating to expensive healthcare for aging pets, and we project that this spending on lasting health for pets will continue to swell over the next decade," she continued.

China's city dwellers will soon have more pets than toddlers, and there's 1 way investors can cash in on the trend, Goldman Sachs says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Virginia is a foundational piece of President Joe Biden's road map for winning a second term.</li><li>However, recent polling in the state shows Biden and Trump tied or nearly tied among voters.</li></ul>In 2020, it was a foregone conclusion that Joe Biden would win Virginia in that year's presidential contest.Four years earlier, Donald Trump lost the state to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, even as he captured the White House. Trump never built firm political footing in Virginia, and his unpopularity there fueled major Republican losses in state legislative races in 2017 and 2019 — especially in suburban swing districts.Biden's considerable standing among Black voters, independents, and voters aged 18 to 29 buoyed the onetime vice president to a huge 10-point victory over Trump in Virginia in 2020.But as the 2024 contest enters its critical summer stretch, recent polling shows Biden and Trump are now deadlocked in Virginia, a development that has major implications for both candidates.Will Biden have to spend time campaigning in a state that many he already had in the bag? Is Trump getting a third look from voters who previously rejected him twice?Here's a look at the state of the race in Virginia, where Biden holds some significant advantages ahead of November:<h2 id="7269b446-bbe8-451a-9a48-bdfaf4a21a2e">Why is Biden lagging in Virginia?</h2>The <a target="_blank" href="https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2024/06/Fox_June-1-4-2024_VIRGINIA_Topline_June-6-Release.pdf">latest Fox News survey</a> of registered Virginia voters showed Biden and Trump tied with 48% support, while Biden held a one-point lead (42% to 41%) when the race included third-party candidates. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.roanoke.edu/news/rc_poll_politics_may_2024">Roanoke College poll</a> taken last month showed Biden and Trump tied at 42% support among likely voters, with 8% of respondents indicating that they would back independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.These numbers represent a softening on Biden's part, as he won 54% of the state's votes in 2020, compared to Trump's 44%.In the Fox News poll, Biden had a 42% favorability rating and a 43% job approval rating, which align with many of his national polling figures. While Virginia has largely trended Democratic in recent years, Biden's numbers are a reminder that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/virginia-governor-race-terry-mcauliffe-glenn-youngkin-biden-democrats-trump-2021-10">it is not a reliably blue state, but one with a blue tinge</a>. (Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin's election in 2021 reflects that.)<div type="image" title="Biden" height="5390" width="8085" msid="110826309" hostid="261" sizebytes="1559088"></div>While Virginia voters give Biden high marks on issues like climate change, abortion rights, and election integrity, it is Trump who comes out on top on issues like the economy, the Israel-Hamas war, and immigration.Since the latter three issues routinely rank as some of voters' biggest concerns, this has allowed Trump to poll competitively with Biden in Virginia.The Fox News poll also showed Trump winning an unusually high 25% of Black voters, a figure that if realized would represent a modern record for a GOP presidential nominee in the state. And the survey showed no polling gap between voters aged 18 to 29 and those aged 65 years and older, with the candidates tied at 48% among both age groups.<h2 id="59eab94c-3e26-4bb1-a241-9000f9633fcc">What boosts Biden's chances in the state?</h2>In recent years, Democrats have solidified their support in Virginia's most populous regions — from Northern Virginia to the Richmond metropolitan area and down to Hampton Roads. These areas contain scores of suburban communities where moderates from both parties, as well as independents, generally decide statewide elections.Many of these voters tend to lean toward Biden, given their most recent voting trends.<div type="image" title="Trump" height="3994" width="5991" msid="110826311" hostid="261" sizebytes="558052"></div>In the Fox News poll, Biden led Trump among independents (45% to 43%) despite his diminished standing in the state. And Biden still retained robust majorities from college-educated voters (56%) and suburban women (58%) — blocs crucial for the president and down-ballot Democrats.And in Northern Virginia — an electoral gold mine for Democrats — Trump remains unpopular. If turnout is high in the region, Trump must post massive numbers in rural Virginia and downstate exurbs to win.Youngkin, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.foxnews.com/video/6354311301112">in a recent Fox News interview,</a> said the recent polling numbers meant Virginia would be "in play" in November.But surveys closer to Labor Day will likely offer a clearer sense of the true nature of Virginia's competitiveness, as many voters remain tuned out of the election — while some who are currently leaning toward third-party candidates may return to Biden's fold.

Biden easily won Virginia in the 2020 presidential election. But things look a lot different this year.

<ul><li>Marketing has always been about understanding how a consumer reacts to certain triggers and how brands can use that to influence them.</li><li>After the year 2020 turned the marketing world upside down, brands and businesses of all sizes had to reimagine their communication strategies and evolve with the rapidly changing times.</li><li>Brands started offering a helping hand to consumers by leveraging their social media presence to either amplify citizens’ SoS for ICU beds or to spread awareness around vaccination registration.</li><li>In 2021, the focus shifted primarily to digital channels owing to the pandemic.</li><li>As we enter a new year with a lot of hope and optimism for the future, we speak to a few brands to discuss how the pandemic impacted their marketing activities and what the future holds for marketing.</li></ul>After months of multiple nationwide lockdowns in 2020 and living and working in isolation, the Indian <keyword id="11095746" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="marketing-ecosystem" source="Orion">marketing ecosystem</keyword> started preparing for a new future. Brands decided to pause, reflect, rework their strategies and most importantly, prioritise consumer interest. They focused on creating more enhanced consumer experiences online as we all waited to physically get back to our ‘normal’ lives. A few brands decided to reach out to people who were crying for help and many brands swallowed their pride, kept aside fierce rivalry and started uplifting their competitors in social media posts instead -- even burger and cola wars stopped. Consumers started yearning for stories that uplift and inspire them to keep going in the otherwise gloomy times. There was a new-found appreciation for empathetic advertising and nostalgia marketing in the brandverse, which continued in 2021. Brands delivered some hope and delight with every post and advertisement. They also started speaking one-on-one with their consumers across social media channels more than ever and delivered on what is asked of them because GenZ and Millennials are quick to call out unconnected brand purposes. Brands also moved along with the great digital migration of consumers and expanded their digital presence. They also factored in the massive economic upheavals due to the pandemic and offered value-based deals. They engaged with consumers on smart devices and interfaces across the home, expanded their media mix to include virtual reality, video conferencing platforms and video gaming platforms. This year’s Ipsos and Tetra Pak report found that the personal, economic and environmental fragility experienced during the global pandemic has created a shift from more passive concern to active caretaking -- driven by the desire to protect ourselves, our communities and the security of the planet. People are being more proactive in making the right purchases – for their own wellbeing and for the environment around them. This includes dietary choices and recycling more and reducing waste. As a result, we have seen more eco-friendly product and packaging launches this year. The concern for the environment will only grow stronger and brands will be expected to align themselves with a larger purpose. With a new-found appreciation for life and altered perspectives towards marketing, we reached out to Indian brands from different sectors to find out what are some of the trends that they expect to see in 2022. Here is what they said: Pankaj Sharma, Director – Consumer Products Division, L’Oréal India: Indian beauty consumers have become more discerning as they move between online + offline buying and experiencing paradigms. And in this journey, eCommerce will continue to play a big role in driving beauty in India. It has created more opportunities for consumer experience and demand fulfillment. The initiatives like live streaming, e-BAs, Video-Content on DIY have enabled new touchpoints. This has allowed more specific media and activation plans for each region, depending on the festive peaks. For example, at L’Oréal India, we used Insta-Festive as one of our umbrella themes and could do insta-diwali, insta-pujo, insta-karwa, insta-onam as activation points to engage with consumers on e-commerce and digital with the power of data. Apart from targeting festive occasions, we are moving towards occasion-led purchases, celebrating personal milestones of life. Hence beauty brands are sending out relevant brand communications throughout the year, with the same rigor, as one would have done during the festive season before. The festive season, however, still sees an uptick in purchases and offers a variety of formats to give consumers what they’re seeking. Raunika Malhotra, President - Marketing &amp; Corporate Communications, Lodha: In the coming year, I see stakeholder marketing becoming increasingly relevant. It essentially means working towards creating value for all stakeholders that include customers, employees, vendors, communities, natural capital, cities, etc. The other trend that we will witness is the increased use of analytics and data scientists in marketing communication and performance. Lastly, the pandemic has made people more conscious of the community and the environment at large. They are looking to engage with brands with shared values of doing good for the society and the planet. Abhishek Shahabadi, Vice President &amp; Portfolio Head, Scotch and Premium Whites Diageo India: There’s been good momentum on Diageo India brands in 2021, despite operational challenges due to pandemic led restrictions. This is attributed to the growing trend of ‘at-home drinking’. The off-trade salience increased to 88% compared to 73% in the pre-pandemic phase, as individuals were constrained to more intimate drinking occasions at home. We see at-home drinking as a strong trend coupled with the growth of outdoor experiences in 2022 as the market opens. Keeping this in mind, Diageo India continues to strengthen its in-home play through off-trade and digital along with influencer engagement to embrace ways to make at-home drinking experiences more enjoyable. Arnab Roy, Vice President, Marketing, Coca-Cola India &amp; Southwest Asia: While this year has tested the thinking and resilience of brands worldwide, going forward, we hope that the pandemic continues to regress and we get the real magic back into our lives. As people step out of their homes more often, they will be looking out for more real activities like watching blockbusters at multiplexes, visiting their favourite food “gullies” and travelling more frequently with their loved ones. Post COVID we are also seeing a trend where people are more experimentative and open to new genres of music, food, sports and entertainment. It is thus imperative for brands to deliver integrated experiences at a global scale with the agility, speed and data-driven insights that are required to win locally. Ramesh Kalyanaraman, Executive Director – Kalyan Jewellers: Gold has always been a preferred consumption item for Indians and in the post COVID-19 era, it has also emerged as one of the safer and more lucrative long-term assets. The dynamic market scenario and uncertainty caused by the COVID-19 pandemic led to renewed interest from younger consumers who bought into the idea of gold jewellery, for the first time. Today’s young consumers or millennials consider jewellery as a fashion statement and a style symbol that will go with their sensibilities and help them showcase their true self. Because of this, it has become increasingly critical for jewellery companies to keep up with newer trends and address the changing sensibilities and consumer preferences in this ever-evolving business environment. To address the ongoing digital transformation in India’s jewellery industry, we are focusing on creating a holistic ecosystem, strengthening our omnichannel strategy and making the ‘phygital’ model more seamless. Over the past few years, we have been making consistent investments in developing and leveraging technology to offer convenient solutions to customers for purchasing jewellery or investing in gold. As a result of this, we were well-positioned to adapt to this digital transformation and ventured into newer product categories such as Digital Gold as well as explored newer avenues to reach our customers by introducing services such as Gold Ownership Certificate and LIVE Video Shopping facility, which allowed customers to browse through and purchase jewellery at the comfort of their homes. One of the biggest trends that have emerged out of the nationwide lockdown is an enormous increase in the screen time spent by Indians across digital platforms. In line with this, brands have aligned their marketing budgets towards digital, social media &amp; OTT, especially for including new content. Following this, we have introduced temporary changes to our media mix with a more digital-centric approach, which is a key to making the most during this quarter. With 2022 around the corner, we aim to continue moving forward on this growth trajectory and register consistent growth while widening our consumer base. Kartik Johari, Vice President - Marketing &amp; Commerce, Nobel Hygiene: 2022 will be the golden year for great marketeers, as content will reign supreme. We are drowning in a glut of content, be it 10 sec Reels, to full-blown documentaries. Consumers on the other hand are oscillating between anxiety, fright and boredom. The challenge is up to us, to create content that can engage, reassure, add value and be honest. It is so important to keep a track of how many people the content reaches, who engages, and what they say. We have never had so much data on our interactions and it is time we start using data better! It should be an interesting year for strong brand teams. Ketan Kulkarni, Chief Commercial Officer, Blue Dart: The world has acclimatized to the ‘new normal’ and what seemed to be the most challenging obstacle of 2020, has now enabled us to prepare for any unprecedented events that could cause business disruptions in the future. A major factor in actualizing this is agility driven by technology and automation. The role of logistics has been highlighted over the last two years given our industry’s essential service status and this has only been possible because of the technology-based solutions adopted by resilient players. 2022 will definitely see an enhancement in the ‘Technology-led transformation’ that we are witnessing today. Digitalization across the supply chain from first mile to last mile is the future of the industry; technology enabling near-autonomous facilities, robotics, drone-delivery systems, and 3D/additive manufacturing are going to be adopted very quickly. The reason is, in the event of another unprecedented crisis, organizations would want to ensure ‘business-as-usual’ to cause minimal business disruptions. The underlying theme of 2022 would revolve around creating business models that will survive in a ‘less-contact’ society. Amrinder Singh, Director, Bonn Group of Industries: It's been a fantastic year of change and recovery for both consumers and businesses. Consumers prioritised their safety while dealing with illness, job loss, lack of available products and services. Anticipating change and adapting for future challenges accordingly can help enterprises see around corners and plan effectively for the post-pandemic consumer. Businesses are riding on the pandemic-accelerated digital transformation wave and the trend is likely to continue. Around 80% of companies are allocating resources to improving their e-commerce and shopping platforms. This includes a full 60% investment in their digital direct-to-customer (DTC) channels. The digital shift also includes transforming internal capabilities and creating efficiencies with the help of technology. The future of retail will be omnichannel shopping or phygital retail. New technologies will continue to transform the retail sector with rapid change and innovation. Retail consumers will expect frictionless and tech-enabled experiences. As retailers and manufacturers embrace a direct-to-consumer model through e-commerce, traditional marketing channels will continue to blur. Satish NS, Senior Vice President, Sales and Marketing, Haier Appliances India: Today, hyper-personalization is inevitable for brands to get closer to their consumers. More than ever before, brands need to work on identifying and nurturing relevant cohorts for the business and reach out to them with tailored content that strikes an instant connection between the brand and its consumers. Since digital gives us the liberty to phenomenally reduce the distance between a brand and its customers, it’s important to create critical touchpoints along the consumer journey that will enable a more immersive brand experience with a 360-degree approach. Moreover, leveraging creative strategies on digital to deliver business impact will continue to become even more important in the coming years. Next year, we will also see an uptick in brands that will be experimenting big with performance marketing tools to help drive better ROI for the business. Manish Bandlish, Managing Director, Mother Dairy Fruit &amp; Vegetable Pvt. Ltd: The year 2021 was yet again a dynamic year however, the revival has been remarkable for us at Mother Dairy. Preparedness coupled with collaboration, resilience and agility played a vital role in the pandemic stressed quarter of this year, to ensure wellbeing of each and every employee as well as business continuity in order to serve our consumers. The year saw new products, markets and experiences, both for the business as well as the consumers. Despite the happenings, this year saw consistent supplies as varied channels such as e-commerce continued big-time. In addition, the consumption trend of consumers which began witnessing a change last year are persistent this year as well with in-home consumption and preference for packaged foods going strong.

Marketing trends to watch out for in 2022

<ul><li>The pandemic and lockdown period has brought many new learnings for all businesses, and e-commerce has undoubtedly been one of the sectors with the biggest takeaways.</li><li>As we enter a new year, we reached out to e-commerce platforms to understand what role it would play in 2022.</li></ul>The e-commerce segment has been witnessing a good growth over the last few years and has been showing no signs of slowing down in India. And why would it? Hasn’t shopping become so much easier now? We can buy anything, from groceries and perfumes to expensive jewellery, from the comfort of our homes. The pandemic further brought fundamental and long-term changes in the way people shop and make their purchase decisions. It has accelerated the industry’s growth in the country as historically offline shoppers also downloaded ecommerce apps onto their phones to shop from within the safety of their four walls. The past year and a half has brought millions of new e-commerce users, including from smaller cities and towns who now are comfortable with buying online. The industry has witnessed an uptick of 77% between 2020 and 2021 and Tier II, III cities are transacting more than ever, said a recent report by Bobble AI. This trend has pushed e-commerce platforms to embrace a wide range of regional brands and local sellers, which offer a compelling value proposition to consumers. With increasing internet penetration, e-commerce players are expecting new growth from Tier II, III and beyond, which will cumulatively contribute to $150 billion of e-commerce as per RedSeer Consulting’s report. The Indian market is expected to surpass the US to become the second-largest e-commerce market in the world by 2034, revealed another <a href="https://www.ibef.org/industry/ecommerce-presentation">report</a>. It is poised to reach US$99 billion by 2024 from US$30 billion in 2019, expanding at a 27% CAGR, with grocery and fashion becoming the key drivers of this incremental growth. As we enter a new year and e-commerce further expands its presence deeper into the country, we speak to a few e-commerce platforms to discuss what lies ahead, where would the second phase of growth come from and trends that would dominate the industry. Here’s what they had to say: <keyword id="1922572" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="manish-taneja" source="Orion">Manish Taneja</keyword>, Founder and CEO <keyword id="1688931" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purplle-com" source="Orion">Purplle.com</keyword>: The year has witnessed major growth in the beauty ecommerce industry, ushering in the next year with great potential. In 2022, the emergence of virtual reality tools will fuel the industry. Offering virtual beauty experiences that seamlessly merge with an omni-channel approach will be the norm. Over the next year, we at Purplle will invest heavily in technology and data science advancements to further personalize customer experience. Natural, transparent beauty products, effortless shopping with shorter delivery times, data-based product development, and value-driven experiences, are some of the other trends that will emerge in 2022. Bharati Balakrishnan- Country Head and Director, Shopify India: The Indian ecommerce market will continue to evolve in 2022, with D2C brands taking centrestage, driven by growing consumer demand and local brands increasingly making ecommerce a priority. On the one hand, the new shopping habits formed over the past 18 months will become an important factor: consumers have embraced online shopping and are actively choosing small, independent brands. This means that D2C brands are here to stay, and we anticipate the emergence of a new generation of proudly Indian brands across food, fashion and lifestyle. Simultaneously, traditional brands and retailers who dominate offline are evolving to meet the demands of the new consumer - they are building to provide a consistent experience to their consumers across online and offline, and would like to use their own online stores to truly extend their brand promise to existing and new customers. It’s an exciting time to be a consumer brand in India Amit, CEO, <keyword id="9798181" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="olx-autos-india" source="Orion">OLX Autos India</keyword>: Rise of the prosumer: The many faces of personalisation With the majority of buyers now clearly preferring online shopping over the traditional format of in-store purchasing, the new trend is inclined towards the forward-thinking, influential and proactive prosumer. Personalisation of the products according to customers preference will be key in 2022. E-commerce marketers will need to integrate personalizing products through advanced technologies in order to provide tailor made and seamless customer experiences. In a cookie-less world, contextual marketing has reared its head in a big way. Targeting consumers has come of age - from category, to keyword, to semantic contextual targeting, now. Many more trends like crypto payments, and dynamic pricing will grow for pure-play retailers. But it is personalization for the prosumer that will chart the way forward. <keyword id="2227756" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="prabhkiran-singh" source="Orion">Prabhkiran Singh</keyword>, Founder CEO, Bewakoof: Live video commerce, Virtual trial rooms (or AR/VR driven fit assists), customized lifestyle products and 3D animated UX interactions are the key trends we expect to disrupt shopping experience in the coming year. Video or content commerce would be largely driven by influencer or user generated content. To drive scalability, there will be multiple SAAS companies launching solutions to simplify handshakes between brands and influencers in content acquisition, ingestion and performance driven payments space. Early movers in the space are Myntra Studio, <keyword id="8861782" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="trell" source="Orion">Trell</keyword> and Bewakoof Bshots. With large VC investments going into the Web 3.0 and metaverse space, a lot of the product cataloging problems around accurate sizing or fit assessment would become more trivial. We will see brands launching virtual trial rooms, 3D product shoots and fit assistants to bridge the gap between online and offline shopping experience. 3 out of 10 customers who shop on our platform would like to customize their product design and sizing. We see this as a growing trend that multiple brands will adhere to in the coming year. 3D and animated content will become a UX trend in the consumer internet industry. Animations used to be a hindrance to many designers and developers as they may slow the loading speed of websites or apps and it is data consuming. With 5G scaling up and 4G becoming a norm across the country, designers will chose to use more animations. Kashyap Vadapalli, Chief Marketing Officer &amp; Business Head, <keyword id="864887" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pepperfry" source="Orion">Pepperfry</keyword>: ‘MarTech’, which essentially means amalgamation of marketing with technology, is the future of commerce where brands will run marketing in a digital and connected ecosystem to offer an immersive experience to their customers. With the advancement of technology in marketing, consumers are constantly looking for an enhanced buying experience. Thereby meaning, from 2022 onwards we will witness more technology integrated experiences like development of offline Virtual Reality shopping rooms for consumers. Since VR offers an immersive 360-degree perspective, products in virtual design, especially big-ticket items like furniture can be easily a luscious offering for customers who want an interactive experience with the product before making the decision, therefore, simplifying the buyer’s journey. Going forward, I believe, Martech will play a dominant role in the strategic priorities and investments of brands, pushing marketers to embrace digital operations and integrated customer experience. <keyword id="12792513" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="shubh-darpan" source="Orion">Shubh Darpan</keyword>, VP- BI &amp; Analytics, Cashify: From the trends we have seen over the past couple of years, we at Cashify believe that the demand for refurbished mobiles is here to stay. It started with the pandemic and subsequent lockdowns when having a mobile became a necessity. Refurbished devices such as smartphones, laptops, tablets, etc. were seen to be preferred by the Indian consumer. Mainly because of the economic aspect of it, the refurbished market has seen an upward motion in India. Moreover, with the shortage of chipsets, there have been fewer smartphone launches in recent times. This too has been a factor in pushing consumers towards refurbished mobiles. Refurbished smartphones offer an optimal and sustainable solution to today's tech-dependent world and we can see it going a long way. Gitanjali Saxena, Business Head - Global Luxury, Tata CLiQ Luxury <div type="image" title="Gitanjali Saxena, Business Head - Global Luxury, Tata CLiQ Luxury" msid="88446509" hostid="261"></div> Inherently, shopping is a social experience. As people continue to spend an increasing amount of time online and on social media, online shopping, which witnessed a huge boost because of the pandemic, is now also becoming social. Social shopping, which is already booming in countries like China, has been gaining momentum in India and will be a leading trend in the coming year. Engaging and immersive formats of selling, such as live commerce, will be at the forefront. In addition, AR and VR will play a crucial role in enhancing the online shopping experience, enabling more personalization, and targeting niche customers. Some of the biggest brands in the luxury fashion and beauty industries are working closely with social media platforms like Instagram and Snapchat to leverage their capabilities of live streaming, in-app shopping, and augmented reality to offer an experience that every luxury customer desires. Snapchat has harnessed the power of technology and introduced an augmented reality lens that allows for a virtual try-on of products. Convenience, personalization, and a sense of community are some of the drivers fuelling the growth of social shopping. The advancement of technology is unlocking a slew of exciting opportunities in social shopping, including user-generated content, virtual product try-ons, direct interaction with brands and peers, and instant gratification. E-commerce platforms will reimagine their strategy to integrate social shopping elements by introducing innovative and engaging formats to bolster their reach and engagement with customers. With social shopping, e-commerce platforms can revolutionize the way people shop on their platforms by presenting a new way of shopping.

Ecommerce: The trends to watch out for in 2022

<ul><li>As we enter a brand new year, we want to crystal gaze into what the year holds for us.</li><li>The global pandemic has spawned strong growth in influencer marketing and creators have cemented their position boosting consumer trust in 2022.</li><li>In our first year-ender, we take a closer look at the year gone by, speak to influencer marketing experts to understand what does the future hold and how is the ecosystem shaping up.</li><li>They also shared with us a few key trends and opportunities that the industry will bring forth as we move forward in 2022.</li></ul>After brands and advertisers slashed their marketing budgets for traditional mediums in 2020, digital marketing took the center stage. Within the hemisphere of digital marketing, social media became a leading channel that drove brand discovery and purchase decisions last year. Influencer marketing also got its due recognition as brands looked for affordable and niche options to reach out to GenZ and Millennials. Marketers also realised that the influencer marketing model is well-suited in a time in which the audience is looking for some inspiration to keep going on, searching DIY videos as they turned home chefs, learning new recipes or focusing on self-care. Creators played an integral role in building a sense of community -- something people searched for when living in isolation. Bolstered by prolonged stay-at-home periods, consumers also steered away from pictures and text and started consuming more videos than ever before. According to Bain and Company, the online video user base in India has increased to more than 350 million people, growing 24% in the last three years. Today, Indian smartphone users spend about 4.8 hours on their devices daily, of which a staggering one hour on average is spent consuming videos, said the report. So, as video consumption scales and attention span reduces every day, influencer marketing offers quick turnaround time and personalisation. Another key factor that attracted brands to this medium is the bond of trust and authenticity that creators share with their fans, giving brands an opportunity to reach out to a niche audience. As a result, the influencer marketing industry has gone through a severe transformation in a short time, becoming a mainstream marketing vehicle. Brands have started looking for agencies that can provide them with interesting campaign ideas rather than just a list of influencers and expected reach. They are more involved in their marketing campaigns and have started exploring creative ideas collectively with the influencers to create engaging content. So, in 2021, we saw brands moving away from ‘one-time associations’ for single posts to actually collaborating with influencers for long-time deals. GroupM and INCA’s study conducted earlier this year also proves how significant influencer marketing is to a marketer today. It said that influencer marketing has become a top priority for marketers this year, as every other leader indicated a budget growth of more than 25% in 2021. INCA’s report further went on to predict that the Influencer Marketing industry is poised to grow at a CAGR of 25% for the next decade, reaching a size of Rs 2200 crore in 2025. As per the report, celebrities corner only 27% of the marketing dollars while a bulk of 73% are taken by digital influencers. Keeping in mind how 2020 and its aftermath in 2021 revolutionised the digital industry, we reached out to a few influencer marketing agencies to understand what does the future hold and how is the ecosystem shaping up. Here is what they said: Neel Gogia, Co-founder of IPLIX Media: The upcoming year is bringing a plethora of opportunities for existing as well as aspiring influencers and creators. The first and foremost are long-term partnerships. With each passing day, more and more brands are realizing that ROI delivered by influencer marketing is unparalleled. Therefore, they are increasingly investing in influencer marketing, and especially in long-term partnerships. Long-term partnerships help them build advocates and ultimately, increase trust amongst the audience. Apart from that, the regionalization of content will increasingly be gaining momentum in the upcoming years. In fact, global brands and platforms are already experimenting with it. Recently, LinkedIn launched its regional version after almost every major global networking app available in the country across Facebook, Twitter and Clubhouse have already introduced it to support the multiple Indian languages. In this wave of regionalization, the local languages that are gaining popularity are Telugu, Marathi, Bengali, Punjabi, Malayalam, etc. Dharika Merchant, COO, WORD and Alchemy Group: The influencer marketing industry in 2022 will see a huge rise in the demand for micro influencers. Micro influencers' share in the total industry increased drastically last year due to brands favouring them owing to their higher engagement rates &amp; affordability. The industry is expected to shift to a more data-driven approach which will become the primary reason for the rise in demand for micro-influencers. Brands are now willing to work on branded content with micro influencers due to favourable data and better insights. It also leads to an effortless long-term relationship between the brand and the influencer thereby ensuring an always-on marketing approach. This always-on influencer marketing approach portrays brand loyalty from an influencer point of view and adds onto credibility of the brand and better brand recall. Without a doubt, focus on micro influencers will be one of the leading trends for the industry in the coming year and we’re excited to see how this changes the face of branded content. Pranav Panpalia, founder, OpraahFx: ‘Live streaming’ is all set to emerge as one of the widely accepted and used influencer marketing tools in the coming year. Live-eCommerce as a concept was started in China last year during the pandemic and got popularized amongst other nations. Live-eCommerce is a great way to connect with the right set of target audiences and turn them into ‘customers’ of the brand the influencers are vouching for. This is one of the best ways for brands who are focusing on ‘ROI’ driven campaigns and not on awareness or brand-building. In India, with many start-ups and MSME brands now focusing on performance-driven influencer marketing campaigns, the concept of live-eCommerce will be practiced and this shall disrupt the influencer marketing industry. Brands promoting highly accessible and affordable products and services are more likely to make use of this new concept. Alongside, live streaming is known for enabling better connections between creators, brands, and consumers as it is a more authentic and real-time content piece. It also provides an opportunity for consumers to interact with their favorite creators, thereby there is a larger scope for personalisation, feedback, and results-driven conversations. Currently, the live-streaming concept is highly dominated by gamers, and this trend will soon see a shift. The live-stream feature provides an equal opportunity and benefits to influencers and content creators of all kinds if used strategically and creatively. For eg: Content creator, Viya from China live-streams about beauty, cosmetics, real estate, cars, and rockets; and is gaining immense out of such brand deals. Likewise, we too are soon to witness such a trend in India. Apaksh Gupta, CEO and Founder, One Impression: While there are going to be plenty of emerging trends that we are expecting to take over the influencer marketing economy in 2022, one particular trend that is going to stand out is the mainstreaming of the metaverse. The way the world of content and social media is evolving, we can easily assume now that the metaverse is here. While the pandemic forced brands to jump on the digital marketing train, newer technological innovation and integration of various platforms to build a virtual ecosystem is bringing the dream of Metaverse closer every day. 2022 is going to witness a lot of investments from brands into mainstreaming the metaverse. We have already seen in 2021 that bigger brands like Nike and Verizon are already initiating their strategies to get a head start in this league from their competitors. Gucci has also launched its limited collection for Roblox letting players customise their avatars in Gucci products. In 2022, we will be witnessing an increase in these numbers of brands who will be deploying technologies like AR/VR with influencers and content creators at the centre of them to promote their products and services. Rohan Tyagi, VP Strategy and Operations, India - Triller: The advent of technologies like NFTs, Crypto has opened up new engagement and revenue channels for brands. In fact, there is great affinity toward it among GenZ and millennial buyers. Through NFTs, brands can disrupt their markets with new strategies to raise awareness, develop new consumer journeys and increase customer value and loyalty. However, In the decentralized world of Web3, the power has shifted back to creators, and brands looking to leverage technologies like NFTs know that they cant simply buy into the space. Community interest today is driven by creators as a result there will be an uptick in brands partnering with influencers to leverage the opportunities afforded by NFTs. While influencer marketing is a fairly young industry with Metaverse becoming mainstream there is a huge likelihood of it taking off quickly and becoming a multibillion-dollar economy in the virtual world. In fact, this may happen much quicker than we think. Aayush Tiwari, VP - Talent Management &amp; Music Business, Monk Entertainment: One pretty evident trend is the dominance of short video content. We’ve noticed a wave of crisp crunchable 15-30 seconder bites taking the internet by storm in 2021 already, bound to multiply in the coming years. Factors that act as a catalyst are low entry barrier, easy to make, large-scale consumption. What drives the short video ecosystem is the ability of it getting recreated under the banner of ‘trends.’ Every week, there are hypothetically ten new trends which garner lakhs of videos lifting the consumption and UGC levels to higher levels. Dominant social media platforms like Instagram, YouTube launched their verticals, and new players like MOJ, TakaTak, Chingari entered the game encouraging regional tiers to showcase their talent. Even Netflix launched a short vertical that features the best scenes from their series, which people are binge-ing on the go. Vaibhav Odhekar, Managing director India &amp; Middle East, AnyMind Group: Influencer marketing has seen few major changes from the consumer approach towards the whole marketing and influencer segment and monetization of platforms. With the rising social media consumption and engagement, D2C brands across segments have moved towards influencers marketing. As per 'State of Influencer in Asia 2021' report by Antag, the most popular are Art &amp; Entertainment, Food &amp; Beverage and Fashion &amp; Beauty while Finance, health &amp; wellness are also attractive eyeballs and set to become trendsetting in 2022. One of the trends that stood out this year was Influencers creating and launching their own brands, driven by their expertise in a certain field, passion or life experience. Along with Direct-to-consumer and e-commerce, Consumer behavior shifts driven by the pandemic have accelerated trends. We've also noticed a trend of rising social commerce which will stay. Platforms like Facebook, Instagram, YouTube and Twitter have already made such features available in some parts of the world. The report also found out that Youtube is the most used social media platform in India. As we move towards 2022, more trends will see a spike and the ongoing trends will keep growing with the brands' demand. Sagar Pushp, Co-founder and CEO, ClanConnect: Two major trends are emerging in the influencer marketing sector and will likely dominate in 2022. Firstly, the creator economy will move towards a subscription-led model wherein true fans will be able to pay a sum of money to access exclusive influencer content. Such premium content will not be available on public platforms like Instagram and YouTube. Secondly, the use of NFTs is going to skyrocket over the next year. With NFTs, users can assume ownership of content such as images, videos, or sound clips, unlocking more revenue opportunities for creators. Pulkit Agrawal, Co-Founder &amp; CEO, Trell: Two words: Social Commerce. While the pandemic has given a massive push to India’s creator economy, the industry will thrive in 2022, with newer shopping and engagement models being adopted across the ecosystem. India’s GenZ and millennial shoppers are now harder to reach through traditional media channels and prefer social media networks to make purchase decisions. Hence, brands now want to integrate social and commerce to drive higher awareness, consideration, and sales. Further, Vertical videos are bound to take the centre stage in the coming year, which means long-form or episodic content will create opportunities for influencers to integrate brands into their content with the help of data-driven insights- brands and influencers will churn more personalized content for their followers’ The rise of social commerce in India will also give a fillip to digital-first brands while opening up newer avenues for influencers to monetize from brand collaborations, making it a full-time profession. With this, the industry is all set to create transforming shopping experiences and become more interactive, immersive, and entertaining. Live commerce is one of such innovations where an influencer demonstrates product usability in a live video setting, driving higher visibility, excitement, and loyalty for consumers. Gautam Madhavan, CEO, Mad Influence: Short Video and Live Stream will dominate in the influencer marketing industry. Consumers are becoming restless in watching long format videos - hence they want to consume on-the-go type of content. Original Content will be one of the key factors driving this. Content Quality and content authenticity is something consumers will be wanting.

Influencer Marketing: Trends to watch out for in 2022

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Biden campaign sees abortion as an issue that can put Florida in play for Democrats this fall.</li><li>Floridians will vote on a ballot measure that could enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution.</li></ul>In recent decades, Florida was often seen as the quintessential presidential swing state.Republicans dominated the Panhandle and North Florida, while Democrats usually cleaned up in Miami, with the I-4 corridor between the Orlando and Tampa areas serving as a swing region where independents often helped decide the outcome of statewide races.However, Florida has not backed a Democratic presidential nominee since Barack Obama in 2012. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton narrowly lost the state to Donald Trump in 2016. And President Joe Biden lost the state to Trump by 3 points in 2020.But the Biden campaign is banking that abortion could give them a chance to win Florida this fall, despite the distinct red hue that the state has taken on in recent years.In November, Florida voters will have a chance <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-abortion-marijuana-initiatives-ballot-supreme-court-2024-4">to vote on whether or not they want to enshrine abortion access</a> in the state constitution via a referendum. This comes as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/04/30/florida-abortion-ban/">a strict six-week abortion ban</a>, which was approved by the GOP-controlled legislature and signed into law by Gov. Ron DeSantis, will go into effect on Wednesday.Since the US Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/abortion-rights-ohio-virginia-kentucky-elections-gop-roe-v-wade-2023-11">Republicans have struggled to counter Democratic messaging</a> on reproductive rights, with the issue playing a major role in key 2022 Senate races and last year's elections in Kentucky and Virginia.The Biden campaign hopes to capitalize on what is poised to be robust voter support for abortion rights in Florida. With its 30 electoral votes, a Biden victory in the state would give the president considerable breathing room as he aims to hold <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/battleground-states-2024-presidential-election-road-white-house-2022-12">swing states like Arizona and Georgia that he flipped in 2020</a>.But Democrats face a challenging political environment in Florida.Trump effectively made Florida his political home base after leaving the White House in 2021, and the former president has deep support among Republicans up and down the ballot in the Sunshine State. DeSantis won reelection over former Gov. Charlie Crist by nearly 20 points in 2022. For the first time since Reconstruction, no Democrats hold statewide elected office in Florida.More consequentially, there are now <a target="_blank" href="https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/">nearly 900,000 more registered Republicans</a> than registered Democrats in Florida, a warning sign for Democrats given the state's high voter turnout in presidential years. As recently as 2020, Democrats had a voter registration edge in the state.But the Biden campaign believes abortion rights can give them the lift that they'll need in a state where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-biden-campaign-electoral-map-expansion-democrats-2024-campaign-gop-2023-9">even some Democrats are skeptical</a> of the president's chances."This campaign's posture reflects the seriousness with which we're taking Florida," Biden campaign communications director Michael Tyler told reporters last week."You've seen our investments begin to pop up in the state of Florida," he continued. "We've got staff on the ground. It is one of many pathways that we have to 270 electoral votes, and we're going to take it very, very seriously."

Biden is taking a swing at winning Florida, hopeful that abortion can boost Democrats in the GOP-trending state

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The job market has impressed recently, but there are worrying signals beneath the surface.</li><li>Wall Street forecasters have pointed to four signs of weakness flashing in the US labor market. </li></ul>Today's job market looks to be on solid footing, but there are subtle signs that hiring is starting to weaken, upping the odds that a recession strikes. The economy added a blowout 303,000 jobs last month, and the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/jobs-wages-growth-in-march-unemployment-rate-labor-market-2024-4">unemployment rate remained near historic lows</a> at 3.9%. But it's unclear how long that strength will hold up, especially as financial conditions in the economy look poised to remain <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-2024-outlook-us-economy-fed-cuts-powell-jobs-2024-4">tighter for longer</a> while inflation is sticky. The job market is already flashing key signs of weakness, and a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-outlook-recession-economy-job-market-unemployment-rate-2024-2">hiring slowdown</a> could be around the corner, Wall Street strategists have warned. Here are four signs the stellar US job market may be about to stumble:<h3>1. Unemployment trends are mirroring past recessions</h3>The unemployment rate remains near historic lows, but the number of jobless Americans has been rising steadily higher over the past year — and is now close to triggering a classic recession indicator. The three-month moving average of the unemployment rate has risen 30 basis points above its 12-month low. That's 20 basis points away from triggering the Sahm rule, a highly accurate indicator that the economy is in the early stages of a recession.It's also dangerously similar to what occurred prior to the last four recessions, according to top economist David Rosenberg."Even the famed Sahm Rule on unemployment trends is right where it was in March 2020, November 2008, March 2001, and September 1990! Delayed is not derailed," Rosenberg said in a client note on Monday, referring to the odds of a recession. <h3>2. Layoff announcements are rising</h3>Firings could pick up in the coming months, as more firms look poised to reduce headcount. The total <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JTULDR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">layoff rate remained near historic lows</a> in February, clocking in at 0.9%. But job-cut announcements rose to 257,254 over the first quarter, according to the career transitioning firm Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas. That's 120% higher than what companies announced the previous quarter, the firm said in a recent <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-jump-in-march-2024-to-highest-total-since-january-2023-on-government-tech/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">report</a>. Cost-cutting was the main reason firms were looking to let go of their workers, accounting for 26% of planned layoffs in the first quarter. 18% of layoffs were attributed to business restructuring, and 9% were attributed to "market conditions," the report found.<h3>3. Lack of growth in full-time jobs </h3>The economy added more and more jobs every month — but there's evidence that most of the jobs being created are merely part-time gigs in 2024. The number of workers who typically work full-time <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS12500000" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dropped 1% year-over-year in March</a>, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/AWHAETP" target="_blank" rel="noopener">average work week among all employees</a> has dropped to around 34 hours — a sign part-time work is making up a larger share of the labor market."We have not created one net new full-time job," Rosenberg said in a March <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/layoffs-recession-economy-job-market-outlook-fed-interest-rates-debt-2024-3">interview</a> with Business Insider. He predicted the unemployment rate could rise to around 5% by the end of the year. "I have a tough time grappling with the overwhelming consensus view that we gave some sort of terrific labor market when all we've accomplished is [turning] this thing into a part-time economy."<h3>4. Businesses are less keen to hire</h3>Employers announced plans to hire just 36,795 workers in the first quarter, according to Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas, a <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/job-cuts-jump-in-march-2024-to-highest-total-since-january-2023-on-government-tech/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">48% plunge from the number of planned hirings</a> that were announced last year. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-small-business-confidence-11-year-low-inflation-recession-2024-4#:~:text=The%20small%20business%20optimism%20index,98%20for%2027%20straight%20months.">Small business optimism</a>, meanwhile, plunged to its lowest level since 2012 last month, and just 11% of small business owners plan on hiring over the next three months, according to the latest jobs report from the National Federation of Independent Business. That's the weakest hiring intentions have been since the pandemic, the report said. The risk of a coming recession could rise if the job market continues to slow, some forecasters have warned. Gary Shilling, a legendary market commentator who called the dot-com bubble, warned the US was <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gary-shilling-stock-market-crash-recession-contrarian-forecast-predictions-economy-2024-2">still at risk of tipping into a recession</a> later this year, even if the job market looks strong at the moment."You haven't had that weakness in labor markets that I think you normally would have had," he said in a recent interview with <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZDCFw4ZKshE">CNBC</a>. "That doesn't mean we won't have it, but it means, whatever it is, it's delayed," he warned.

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