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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Markets are moving on early US election results that favor Donald Trump.</li><li>US Treasury yields and the dollar are rising, with futures and cryptocurrencies also gaining.</li></ul>Markets are turning to the Trump trade on election night as betting odds move in favor of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.While the election is far too early to call, online betting sites, including <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-the-2024-US-presidential-election">PredictIt</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024">Polymarket,</a> show Trump ahead in the race for the top job.This turn in sentiment supported the so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump trade</a>, which is predicated on corporate tax cuts and significant deficit spending, as well as hawkish trade and foreign policy, Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Capital.com">Capital.com,</a> said in a note on election night."Deeper deficit spending implies stronger US growth, higher corporate profits (juiced by tax cuts), higher levels of debt, greater Treasury issuance, and marginally higher inflation," wrote Rodda."This dynamic draws investors into equities, especially 'old' or 'real' economy companies in the industrials, financials, materials and energy sectors, with the Dollar rising because of higher rates and upward pressure on yields from higher inflationary pressures and debt issuance," he added.US Treasury yields rose across the board on Tuesday night as investors view a second Trump presidential term as <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;_gl=1*4j037*_ga*MTM0MjM1NDU5My4xNjg1MTUzMTcw*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDg1ODYyOS4xNDM0LjEuMTczMDg1OTIxMC42MC4wLjA.">an inflationary event.</a> Trump has pledged to impose <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-tariff-trade-tax-proposal-inflation-interest-rates-outlooks-predictions-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">sweeping tariffs on imports</a>, which would stem currency outflow and drive up inflation and interest rates.The benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years">10-year Treasury yield</a> climbed about 14 basis points to about 4.4315% as of 10:26 p.m. ET. The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-2-years">two-year yield</a> gained 7 basis points to 4.2699%.Bets on higher interest rates sent the US dollar higher. The <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/us-dollar-index?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">US Dollar Index,</a> which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, was trading 1.43% higher.The dollar gained 1.5% against the Japanese yen, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-jpy">USD/JPY</a> currency pair at 153.9. Meanwhile, the greenback was 1.5% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-eur">euro</a> and 3% higher against the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/usd-mxn">Mexican peso.</a>Meanwhile, US futures moved higher on increasing prospects of a Trump win. Supporters of Trump's proposed tax and regulatory policies view them as pro-business moves that would boost corporate profits and deal activity.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/s&amp;p-500-futures">S&amp;P 500 futures</a> were up 1.25% higher, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/dow-futures">Dow Jones Industrial Average futures</a> were up 1.2%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/futures/nasdaq-100-futures">Nasdaq 100 futures</a> gained 1.2%.Cryptocurrencies are also gaining, with Bitcoin up 6.8%. Trump has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">endorsed digital assets</a> in recent years, and some investors are buying the asset as an inflation hedge.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/djt-stock">Trump Media and Technology Group</a> shares rallied 10.4% in after-hours trade after reporting third-quarter earnings, which initially sent shares down. The social media company, which trades under Trump's initials, reported an operating loss of $23.7 million and a net loss of $19.2 million. But it has no debt and a balance of cash, cash equivalents, and short-term investments of $673 million as of September 30 — sharply higher than in the second quarter."Markets are very thin and skittish, DJT exceptionally so," Steve Sosnick, the chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, told CNN.Rodda wrote that even though the Trump trade is playing out hours after the polls closed, it's still too early for confident calls."Ultimately, the counting is only just starting and a clear result is some way from being found. While some states have already been called by the media, most swing states have either just closed the polls and have just started tabulating votes, or are still open," he added.

The Trump trade is taking off on election night

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bitcoin has hit a record high as Donald Trump leads in the US presidential election.</li><li>Trump's support for digital assets is boosting investor confidence in cryptocurrencies.</li></ul>Bitcoin hit a record high as Republican candidate Donald Trump took the clear lead in the US presidential election on Tuesday night.The former president's position in the race prompted a rush of so-called <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-trade-us-presidential-election-dollar-treasuries-stocks-crypto-djt-2024-11">Trump trades</a> as investors bet on assets that could gain under another Trump term.One of the winning trades was cryptocurrencies. Trump has <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-bitcoin-stance-2024-7?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">supported digital assets</a> in recent years and his pro-crypto stance is lifting bitcoin to a new record high, wrote Yeap Jun Rong, a market strategist at IG, on election night.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> climbed to over $75,000 Tuesday night, and while it slightly pared gains, the currency was up 8% around $74,700 at 12:51 a.m. ET on Wednesday.The digital asset also jumped because a potential Trump presidency is associated with tax cuts, steeper tariffs, a deeper deficit, a higher level of debt, more Treasury issuance, and higher inflation, Kyle Rodda, a senior market analyst at <a target="_blank" href="http://Capital.com">Capital.com</a><a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="http://capital.com/">,</a> wrote in a note.The US dollar is expected to rise on higher Treasury yields because higher inflation would constrain the Federal Reserve's ability to cut rates."The greater inflationary risks and higher levels of debt also support assets like gold and bitcoin, which investors buy to hedge themselves against such trends," Rodda wrote.The crypto industry has been at odds with President Joe Biden's administration over regulations — though the currency surged more than 100% during his term.Crypto investors expect a friendlier reception with Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate, who has also <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-donald-trump-crypto-bitcoin-donors-young-men-2024-9">embraced crypto.</a>Gautam Chhugani, a Bernstein analyst, said in September that <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-outlook-90000-target-if-trump-wins-november-election-2024-9">bitcoin could hit $90,000 by December</a> if Trump wins the election."Elections remain hard to call, but if you are long crypto here, you are likely taking a Trump trade," Chhugani said.

Bitcoin hits a record high on Trump trade rush

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election win has sent the US stock market to fresh highs.</li><li>Morgan Stanley says three risks could upend the ongoing Trump trade.</li></ul>Equity investors have embraced Donald Trump's return to the White House, but the post-election rally isn't entirely risk-free.So far, US indexes have hit <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">new highs</a> as investors look ahead to what Trump's promised policies mean for earnings growth. But while market momentum remains firmly upward, Morgan Stanley outlined three risks that could upend it.First, a significant jump in Treasury bond yields could stir anxiety among equity investors, the bank said.Trump's election has already sent yields surging, as Wall Street expects his policies to boost inflation, keeping interest rates elevated. As it became clear Trump won last week, the 10-year note jumped as much as 21 basis points to 4.47% on November 6.So far, this hasn't been enough to discourage stock investors, but Morgan Stanley suggests that further increases could spell trouble for equities. For instance, concern over the government's ballooning deficit could drive higher yields, the bank said.JPMorgan analysts share this outlook, noting that the stock market rally would <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/treasury-bond-yields-selloff-risk-trump-trade-tariff-immigration-tax-2024-11">face fatigue once bond yields reach near 5%</a>.<div type="image" title="Morgan Stanley chart comparing bond term premium with S&amp;P 500 P/Es" height="1138" width="2190" msid="115223450" hostid="261" sizebytes="75850"></div>Second, strength in the US dollar might mean issues for large-cap stocks.After the election, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-06/dollar-rises-to-highest-since-july-as-polls-close-in-key-states">Bloomberg dollar index surged</a> by the most in four years, reaching its highest since November 2023.As with bond yields, the greenback is surging on the prospect that US interest rates will remain higher for longer under Trump. Meanwhile, foreign currencies fell against the dollar over worries that the president-elect will implement wide-sweeping tariffs on all US trade."If dollar strength continues at the current pace into year-end, it could slow down multinationals' EPS growth for 4Q24 and 2025," Morgan Stanley wrote, later adding: "This would likely be felt more in the large cap indices (where mega cap weights tend to have higher foreign sales exposure) than in the average stock which is why the broadening out can continue under the surface even if the dollar proves to be a headwind."Third, equities keep getting more overpriced.As this year's bullish investors raced to gain exposure to market themes tied to artificial intelligence, the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a> has increasingly moved away from its fundamentals."More specifically, the y/y change in the S&amp;P has rarely been this disconnected from earnings revision breadth," the analysts wrote, adding: "Once again, this is more of a consideration for the major indices than for the average stock but it does suggest that more upside in multiples is likely contingent on the data confirming a reacceleration in growth."But this shouldn't be treated as a warning signal to turn bearish, Piper Sandler analysts said in October. Even with the S&amp;P overvalued by 8% last month, a downturn catalyst would need to appear to crush <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-overvalued-sp500-bullish-earnings-momentum-rally-valuations-2024-10">market momentum</a>. That could include a sudden jump in interest rates or inflation.

3 risks that could derail the Trump trade in stocks, Morgan Stanley says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were lower Monday as investors braced for the US presidential election. </li><li>Record voter turnout is expected, with over 76 million early votes already cast.</li></ul>US stocks traded slightly lower on Monday as investors prepared for an action-packed week of events.All eyes are on the US Presidential election, with polls set to close Tuesday evening. So far, more than 76 million Americans have voted via mail-in ballots or via early in-person voting, suggesting potential record turnout this year. After <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/harris-trump-iowa-polling-lead-swing-states-2024-11">a shock Iowa poll showed Kamala Harris leading the state</a> against Donald Trump over the weekend, betting odds have tightened in the race after Trump spent the weeks leading up to the vote far ahead of Harris. For a full rundown of the implications for the economy and stock market based on who wins the election, read BI's deep dive on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-preview-consumer-outlook-how-trump-harris-housing-taxes-2024-11">the potential impacts here.</a>After the election, investors will shift their attention to the Federal Reserve. The central bank's FOMC meeting is scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-federal-reserve-election-jerome-powell-inflation-jobs-2024-11">with an interest rate decision expected on Thursday.</a>According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets see a 96% chance of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points.Investors will also pay attention to initial jobless claims and productivity data, set to be released Thursday morning.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,711.31, down 0.31%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,893.80, down 0.38% (-158.39)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,121.72, down 0.62%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/berkshire-hathaway-apple-stake-cut-quarterly-earnings-2024-11">Berkshire Hathaway trimmed its stake in Apple again. The conglomerate is now sitting of $325 billion in cash.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/us-oil-opec-crude-production-record-oil-prices-commodity-market-2024-11">The US is pumping more oil than ever, and it's complicating things for crude-exporting countries.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-replace-intel-dow-jones-industrial-average-2024-11">Nvidia will replace Intel in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Sherwin-Williams will replace Dow.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/wall-street-election-predictions-professional-investor-survey-2024-11">Wall Street professionals expect Donald Trump to win the Presidential election, according to a new survey.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 2.59% to $71.29 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 2.42% to $74.87 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> jumped 0.19% to $2,754.30 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield declined 11 basis points to 4.284%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> decreased 0.17% to $68.627.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade lower as investors brace for US election

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed on Wednesday as traders took inflation data and the outlook for rates.</li><li>Inflation rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on a yearly basis, in-line with expectations.</li></ul>The latest inflation data dented some of the momentum of the post-election stock rally, with traders focusing on the latest consumer price index reading at its implications for rate cuts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up slightly, while the S&amp;P 500 ended the day nearly flat. Bond yields were little changed, with the 10-year Treasury yield up one basis point to 4.449%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-october-cpi-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-interest-rates-2024-11">Inflation was slightly higher</a> year-over-year in October compared to the prior month, but was on par with economists' expectations. Consumer prices rose 0.2% for the month and 2.6% on an annual basis, higher than last month's 2.4% increase.Investors solidified bets on another rate cut at the Federal Reserve's December policy meeting. Markets see an 82% chance that the central bank will trim interest rates another quarter-point next month, up from 59% on Tuesday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.Traders are less certain about another rate cut in January. The odds of another 25 basis point cut at the Fed's January meeting have dropped to 29%, down from 69% a month ago."Inflation data mostly support another rate cut at the Fed's December decision," Bill Adams, the chief economist at Comerica Bank, said in a note. "The Fed will wait until they have more clarity about the timing and scope of policy changes from the next President and Congress before reacting to them.""The Fed wants to avoid the mistakes of the past by prematurely easing and risking a second wave of inflation, so we'd expect the FOMC to take this risk seriously," Jason Pride, the chief of investment strategy &amp; research at Glenmede, said in a note. "This doesn't take a rate cut off the table for December, but it's certainly not a slam dunk."The rally fueled by Trump's election began to stumble, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite edging slightly into the red.Crypto markets, though, continued to get a boost after Elon Musk, a close ally of Trump, was appointed as co-head of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/dogecoin-price-elon-musk-doge-department-trump-crypto-president-election-2024-11?_gl=1*j5rjww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUyNDI1NS41NTYuMS4xNzMxNTI0MjY2LjQ5LjAuMA..">Department of Government Efficiency</a>, or "DOGE." <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/doge-usd">Dogecoin</a> spiked another 15% on the news, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">bitcoin</a> rose as much as 6% before paring its gains, surpassing the $90,000 threshold for the first time ever before dipping back below to about $88,000 later in the day. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,985.38, up 0.02%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,958.19, up 0.11% (+47.21 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 19,230.74, down 0.26%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li>Here's what people are betting in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/kalshi-polymarket-prediction-markets-jake-paul-mike-tyson-bitcoin-trump-2024-11?_gl=1*4l4ww*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMTUxNTY1NS41NTUuMS4xNzMxNTE4NTU0LjU2LjAuMA..">prediction markets</a> now that the election is over.</li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-price-outlook-upside-blackwell-rubin-apple-iphone-moment-2024-11">Nvidia is approaching its iPhone moment</a> with its Blackwell chip, and the stock could soar another 25%, an analyst said. </li><li>Trump could push <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-us-debt-levels-government-borrowing-treasury-blackrock-rick-rieder-2024-11">US debt to levels</a> that can't be ignored within his first year in office, according to BlackRock's Rick Rieder.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil dipped 0.09% to $68.08 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was lower by 0.46% to $71.95 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> slipped 0.87% to $2,575.98 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was up one basis point to 4.449%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> slipped to $88,615.</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Trump's election win sparked a surge in the S&amp;P 500, but risks from China loom.</li><li>China could significantly retaliate against Trump's proposed 60% tariff, Capital Economics said.</li></ul>The stock market <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-trump-win-election-stock-market-outlook-strategy-2024-11">has zoomed higher</a> since President-elect Donald Trump's win last week, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> notching a quick 5% gain.Yet, while Trump's win opens the stock market to potentially more upside <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">via tax cuts and deregulation</a>, it also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-risk-outlook-trump-deportation-tariff-anthony-scaramucci-2024-11">makes it more vulnerable to other risks.</a>According to chief market economist John Higgins of Capital Economics, the biggest risk looming for the S&amp;P 500 is China, specifically, its potential reaction to another Trump trade war."Perhaps the biggest risk to the S&amp;P 500, given that a bubble in the index has been inflated by hype around AI, would be a retaliatory clampdown by China on US big-tech firms' operations in its territory," Higgins wrote in a Monday note.During his campaign trail, Trump proposed a 60% tariff on all goods imported from China, which would be a sharp escalation from the 25% tariffs he placed on a select list of goods during his first administration.If Trump's proposed 60% tariff against China is enacted and the country responds aggressively, it would likely pressure some of America's most important companies, like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a>, which manufacture and sell their products in the country.China can do anything from restricting the sale of goods from American companies within its country to disrupting American companies' manufacturing operations.But Higgins believes that's an unlikely outcome, as an escalating trade war would hit China's already struggling economy."Retaliating in that way would undermine the image China has been trying to cultivate of a responsible superpower," Higgins said, adding that if it responds too aggressively to a second round of Trump tariffs, it could lose access to technologies that are integral to AI.Instead, China would likely take a more targeted approach in responding to a second round of Trump tariffs."We suspect China would retaliate in more subtle ways, such as restricting supply of rare earth metals and older generation semiconductor chips," Higgins said.

The biggest risk to stocks after Trump's victory is China's reaction to a trade war, research firm says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Kamala Harris' election odds have risen in betting markets this week as early voting picked up. </li><li>Data shows women outpacing men in early voting, a potential warning sign for Trump. </li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/donald-trump-trade-rally-betting-markets-kamala-harris-bitcoin-djt-2024-10">Trump trade</a> has wobbled this week as Kamala Harris' betting odds have crept higher amid some promising signals for the Democratic candidate from early voting data. Kalshi, the betting market open to US citizens, showed Harris' odds of winning the election rising to about 44% from a low of about 35% on Tuesday, while Trump's odds of winning the election dropped from a peak of about 65% to 56%.Meanwhile, odds of Harris winning the popular vote gained about 10 percentage points this week, rising from a low of about 61% on Tuesday to 71% Friday morning, according to Kalshi data.Possibly driving the change in each candidate's betting odds are promising hints for Harris' campaign in early voting data nationally and in key states. "The situation in Pennsylvania—where women have outpaced men by 13 points in the early vote—has sent the [Trump] campaign into a tailspin during the past two days," <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://puck.news/inside-mar-a-lago-pennsylavania-anxiety-chief-of-staff-games-czar-rfk-jr/">Puck reported</a> on Thursday.The Trump campaign is also worried about losing Michigan, which has seen a surge in young student voters, so winning Pennsylvania is crucial for the campaign, Puck reported. So far, nearly 65 million people have voted early via in-person voting or mail-in ballots. The gender breakdown of the early voting is 54% women compared to 44% men, and Harris has been winning women at a wide margin based on the polls.A weakening in some popular Trump trades has been seen as the betting odds shifted this week. Perhaps the most prominent Trump trades out there is the stock of Truth Social's parent company, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/AAPL-stock">Trump Media and Technology Group. </a>Since Trump's election odds peaked on Tuesday, shares of Trump Media plunged as much as 40%.Bitcoin — <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-price-soars-crypto-president-donald-trumps-election-betting-odds-2024-10">which has soared</a> on the back of Trump's rising odds in betting markets amid hope that he would pursue a much more pro-crypto agenda — has also declined since Trump's election odds peaked this week. The cryptocurrency dropped as much as 7%, though it's since rebounded, rising about 3% Friday morning.Other Trump trades haven't dropped significantly, but they've seen their recent rallies stall, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/market-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-trump-harris-stocks-bonds-crypto-2024-10">like the US dollar,</a> which is seen as likely to rise considerably under a Trump presidency due to the potential for broad tariffs and higher interest rates. The US dollar index rose 4% since the start of October as Trump's election odds soared, but after hitting a peak on Tuesday, has edged slightly lower slightly.While Trump is still far ahead of Harris in betting markets, even after this week's shift, the polls are much tighter. The latest <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/">polling average from 538</a> has Harris leading 48% versus 46.8% for Trump.

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The Trump trade is taking off on election night

Huileng Tan

Bitcoin hits a record high on Trump trade rush

Huileng Tan

3 risks that could derail the Trump trade in stocks, Morgan Stanley says

Filip De Mott

Stock market today: Indexes trade lower as investors brace for US election

Matthew Fox

Stock market today: Indexes trade mixed as investors assess rate outlook after new inflation data

Jennifer Sor

The biggest risk to stocks after Trump's victory is China's reaction to a trade war, research firm says

Matthew Fox

Trump trades waver as Harris' betting odds edge up days before the election

Matthew Fox

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