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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors worried about a market correction should adjust their portfolios, David Rosenberg says.</li><li>The top economist has warned stocks are in a bubble and at risk of a major decline.</li></ul>A number of Wall Street forecasters have been warning of a stock bubble as the market climbs to a series of fresh highs in 2024 — and investors worried about such a scenario should be putting their money in a handful of assets to protect themselves from the eventual bursting.That's according to David Rosenberg, a top economist and the founder of Rosenberg Research, who's been warning of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-outlook-prediction-strategy-to-invest-david-rosenberg-2024-3">potential craash in stocks</a> for months. In the past, he's warned of a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-outlook-prediction-strategy-to-invest-david-rosenberg-2024-3">39% correction to stocks</a>, among the more extreme predictions on Wall Street, where most investors are feeling optimistic about a soft landing amid a robust economy and easing interest rates. "Watching the market these days is like watching a clown blowing up a balloon (or Chuck Prince dancing the ballroom), knowing the inevitable," Rosenberg said in a note to clients on Friday. "When this mega-bubble pops, it will be spectacular."Investors need to exercise caution and avoid following the "herd mentality," Rosenberg said, pointing to the fervor for mega-cap tech stocks. Instead, he said, investors should focus on stocks with strong business models, strong growth, and good prices, and add some "insurance" to their portfolios.Below are his top investment ideas for to prepare for the potential bursting of a market bubble. Healthcare and consumer staplesInvestors should gear their investments towards what people will always need in the future. In particular, Rosenberg recommended that investors pay attention to options in the healtcare and consumer staples sectors."Focus on where people are going to focus on what they need, not what they want," Rosenberg wrote. "Anything related to e- commerce, cloud services, and wiring up your home to become your new office has been in a budding secular growth phase."Utilities<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-stocks-to-invest-artificial-intelligence-data-center-energy-companies-2024-6">Utility stocks</a> also look promising. Other forecasters have predicted <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/energy-stocks-to-buy-utility-artificial-intelligence-data-center-bofa-2024-9">huge upside for utility firms</a>, due to the growing need for power and data centers stemming from the AI boom."Utilities, as we have been saying for a long time, are as close to a 'no brainer' as there is, given their yield attributes and their being re-rated for 'defensive growth' owing to enhanced earnings visibility through the strong and secular outlook for US power needs," Rosenberg said.Aerospace, DefenseAerospace and defense stocks could also be a buy, he added, given rising geopolitical tensions around the world."Aerospace/defense has been a long-standing bull call for us for several years, and the best hedge against an increasingly troubled world where military budgets are expanding everywhere — and not at all sensitive to who comes to power on November 5th."Big techWhile some areas of tech are exhibiting bubble characteristics, investors could still seize on opportunities in some large-cap tech names, given the prevalence of work-from-home, cloud services, and remote work, Rosenberg said. Still, investors should wait to scoop up tech names at better prices, he said."I'd prefer to pick these plays up at better prices than we have today because this last melt-up has eaten enough into future expected returns to keep us cautious for now. But we would be an avid buyer on any significant pullback."Safe betsInvestors should look to put a "dose of insurance" in their portfolios. That means gold — the "truest store of value," Rosenberg says, — as well as government bonds."The beautiful thing about gold is that it is not a liability that a central bank can simply have forgiven or a currency that can simply be printed by government fiat," he said of the precious metal. "I also favor the Treasury market because it commands just about the highest yield of any major industrial country – and with the great liquidity attributes."Real estate investment trusts could also be good ways to hedge risk, Rosenberg said. That particularly applies to REITs tied to the industrial and healthcare sectors. "In any event, we all have to become increasingly thematic and thoughtful in our decision-making and more selective than normal because the stock market, and financial assets in general, have become nothing more than a momentum casino," he added.Most forecasters on Wall Street still expect a strong performance from equities into year-end and 2025. Goldman Sachs, UBS, BMO, and Deutsche Bank have <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">raised their year-end price targets</a> for the S&amp;P 500 in recent weeks, with new forecasts ranging from 5,750 to 6,400.

Here's where investors worried about a stock market bubble should put their money, according to a top economist

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for signs of a potential peak in the S&amp;P 500.</li><li>The secular bull market, which began in 2009, is in a mature stage according to NDR's Tim Hayes.</li></ul>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> in its 15th year of a secular bull market that started in 2009, Ned Davis Research says investors should watch for warning signs of a potential peak.In a Friday note, NDR chief global investment strategist Tim Hayes said the secular bull rally is in its mature stage, so investors should keep an eye out for warning signs like sentiment extremes."What will warn that it's ending? The answer comes down to sentiment — so much positive news for so long that it has become the new normal," Hayes said.He added: "The risk is that the lack of risk aversion would leave investors exposed to a degree of sustained macro deterioration yet to be experienced since the bull got underway."Hayes isn't calling for an imminent peak in the stock market, especially with falling interest rates historically acting as a tailwind for stock prices, but he's aware that it could happen."The last two secular bulls lasted 24 years (1942 - 1966) and 18 years (1982 - 2000). But with the secular bull mature, we're watching out for signs that it may be at risk," Hayes said.The first warning sign of a near-term peak in the stock market is worsening breadth among the underlying issues of the US stock market.In other words, if only a handful of companies drive the stock market higher, that would be a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-rally-broadens-small-caps-another-win-for-bulls-2024-7">bad sign,</a> as it was at the secular top in 2000.Investors don't have to worry about that signal flashing just yet, with recent data showing a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/rare-bull-signal-perfect-track-record-just-flashed-stock-market-2024-9">surge in market breadth.</a>Extreme valuations would be another warning sign to watch for, according to Hayes, who added that high valuations price in a perfect macro environment, and if something goes wrong, those valuations can fall apart rather quickly."Expensive valuations appear justified when earnings growth is coming through, but that also leaves the market vulnerable when earnings turn lower," Hayes said.Long-term peaks in the stock market also typically occur when earnings growth and economic growth hit extreme levels, as the other side of that boom is typically a swift deceleration in growth.The secular stock market peaks of 1929, 1966, and 2000 all coincided with a peak in S&amp;P 500 earnings growth, "after which prices dropped on the growing realization that the valuations were not justified," Hayes said.While valuations and earnings growth are currently at high levels, they could have more room to grow, according to the note."The current level of earnings growth has yet to reach its levels at the peaks in 1929 and 2000 but has already closed in on its levels of 1966," Hayes said.He added: "For a downturn in earnings growth, we would expect to see a downturn in economic growth."Finally, Hayes said investors should keep an eye on bond yields and commodities, as they will reflect a potential rebound in inflation. And a rebound in inflation, coupled with rising interest rates, would be an unwelcome warning sign for the current bull rally in stocks."If that would start to change with a severe cyclical bear, the secular bear warnings would strengthen, and we would be likely to see reversals from extremes in valuations, earnings growth, and economic performance," Hayes concluded.

Watch these warning signs for a potential peak in the stock market's long-term bull rally, NDR says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks were on a roll following Donald Trump's victory in last week's election.</li><li>Markets are banking on lower taxes and fewer restrictions on businesses.</li></ul>The week since the US elections was better for stocks than anyone other than Donald Trump's biggest supporters could have expected.Many parts of the market <a target="_blank" href="https://www.sectorspdrs.com/sectortracker">caught fire</a> ever since Republicans significantly outpaced polls on November 5. The consensus view among strategists is that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-trump-win-election-stock-market-outlook-strategy-2024-11">US stocks are set up for success during Trump's next term</a>, as they believe his policies will benefit corporations and the economy.Sébastien Page, an investment chief and head of global multi-asset at T. Rowe Price, is mostly on board with this upbeat sentiment. He told Business Insider last week that the post-election relief rally checks out, as markets finally have more clarity about policy in the next four years."The reduction in the uncertainty that we had going into the election — that's good for stocks," Page said in an interview, as are the possibilities of deregulation and corporate tax cuts.Even more vital for stocks is the economic growth backdrop. Widely followed indicators like GDP growth and the unemployment rate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-outlook-tariffs-trump-trade-war-slowdown-jpmorgan-david-kelly-2024-10">suggest that the US is already on solid ground</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/consumer-confidence">consumer sentiment is rebounding strongly</a> from perplexingly low levels.While there have been signs of softness in the labor market, including <a target="_blank" href="https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/ces0000000001?output_view=net_1mth">lackluster job additions in four of the last five months</a>, Page expects the economic expansion to roll on — at least for now."The probability of recession is rarely zero, but my view is, it's unlikely for the next 12 months," Page said.<h2 id="d6647ee1-0cb2-4d09-9bed-457944a6aa59">3 key risks to watch heading into 2025</h2>Although Page is optimistic about the path forward for stocks and the economy, he thinks investors shouldn't ignore three risks that could cause a market reversal.Chief among Page's concerns is that valuations are historically high and leave little room for error on the earnings front.The S&amp;P 500's 35.6% rise in the last 12 months and 67% gain since its bear-market low in October 2022 has pushed the index's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio to over 22x. That's the <a target="_blank" href="https://yardeni.com/charts/stock-market-p-e-ratios/">one of the richest marks in the last two decades</a>, and it suggests this supportive backdrop is no secret.<div type="image" title="S&amp;P 500 val 11-12-24" height="1120" width="1990" msid="115253245" hostid="261" sizebytes="168202"></div>And even if growth stays robust, stocks may have already pulled forward future gains."If you had to summarize my view, I'm positive on the economy, but I think it's mainly priced in," Page said.If earnings continue to defy expectations, as they have again in the third quarter, stocks could keep climbing. Profits increased about 7.1% in Q3, which is much higher than <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-q3-earnings-season-recession-risk-investing-strategy-2024-10">the 4.6% that analysts were calling for</a>. That's an underrated reason why stocks have done so well lately.But otherwise, it's quite possible that the S&amp;P 500 could give back much of its recent gains."There's a lot priced in," Page said. "The earnings expectations for next year are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-q3-earnings-season-recession-risk-investing-strategy-2024-10">about 15% growth</a>. We're tracking at around 9% growth this year."Page added: "Earnings coming up is good, but high expectations can lead to disappointment."Stocks often perform well in expansions, the investment chief said, though there are exceptions.In 2022, the S&amp;P 500 had its worst year since the financial crisis, <a target="_blank" href="https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/New_Home_Page/datafile/spearn.htm">even as earnings ticked up</a>. Stocks were plagued by <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-cpi-price-growth-june-2022-7">multi-decade high inflation</a>, interest rate hikes, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-q2-economic-growth-recession-inflation-hiring-us-recovery-progress-2022-7">two quarters of negative GDP</a>, and geopolitical flare-ups like Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Most of those concerns have since been neutralized, though new ones could pop up whenever."There's always tail risks, and next year it could be geopolitics — maybe another oil shock," Page said. "But I don't personally see a repeat of '22, unless something major happens to maybe commodity markets, or a major disappointment in earnings — something unexpected in terms of some of those flagship companies that are dominating the market."The last major concern Page cited is one that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-trump-president-economy-tariffs-trade-war-kelly-2024-11">many market observers have warned about lately</a>: a global trade war defined by steep tariffs, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/election-trump-harris-economy-inflation-stock-market-volatility-risk-orlik-2024-10">which could hurt growth and spark inflation</a>."The market might be underestimating the potential impact of trade wars that could be disruptive," Page said. "Maybe the market is thinking, 'This is a problem for another day,' and we'll see. But the president has more power over trade policy than fiscal, and all those expectations [are] for lower taxes, so maybe the market's underestimating this a little bit."Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pbs.org/newshour/economy/trump-favors-huge-new-tariffs-how-do-they-work">has hinted</a> that he'll put 60% tariffs on Chinese imports and up to 20% tariffs on other foreign goods, though even some of his outspoken critics have said that he might be bluffing. That's Page's hunch as well."It's not necessarily what is actually going to happen," Page said. "With this administration, there's a tendency to use tariffs as part of a strategy to bring manufacturing into the country, as a negotiation tool."If Trump actually implements such tariffs, pundits like Anthony Scaramucci have said <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-risk-outlook-trump-deportation-tariff-anthony-scaramucci-2024-11">there'd be a major market meltdown</a>. Page had no such call, but even if there was a modest pullback, the investment chief wouldn't necessarily complain."We like to buy when markets sell off," Page said.

'High expectations can lead to disappointment': A top strategist at T. Rowe Price outlines the 3 risks he's watching as markets celebrate Trump's win

<keyword id="8460033" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="bofa-securities" source="Orion">BofA Securities</keyword> has given a 'Buy' call for E Ink, Hundsun, Japan Airlines, Mazda Motor, PICC Group, <keyword id="6355199" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="reliance-industries" source="Orion">Reliance Industries</keyword>, Samsung F&amp;M, SBI Cards, and United Breweries for the July-September 2023 quarter. The financial services company sees potential return on investments in the range 6-72 %. It, however, gave an 'Underperform' rating for IDP Education, with a potential 16 % downside in its stock price. BofA Securities said they presented a list of 10 quarterly stock recommendations among Asia Pacific companies, based on the view that these stocks could have the most significant market and business-related catalysts in the quarter ahead. "Given the breadth and scope of our overall coverage of stocks and sectors in Asia Pac, we recognize this recommended list cannot include nor is it designed to include all major catalysts. Our objective is to identify what we believe will be the highest impact ideas in each quarter when we publish the list," the financial services company said. For Reliance, the financial services company has a 'Buy' rating as Jio has emerged as the top telecom player in a growing market in India. "Reliance's telecom subsidiary -Jio - has garnered a large number of paying subscribers. Service quality perceptions continue to improve. Data demand appears to be sticky, and relatively less price sensitive," it said. "Reliance is also completing a major petrochemicals expansion, which should significantly increase its free cash flow potential. Continued improvements at Jio and FCF (free cash flow) generation should drive upside." Explaining the rationale behind the recommendation, it said it maintained 'Buy' on Reliance Industries after finding find risk-reward favorable as it heads into its Annual General Meeting (likely in August). With Jio making investments in 5G, BofA Securities sees further room for the company to gain market share -- mainly at the expense of Vodafone Idea. "Furthermore, any better-than-expected revenues in fiber broadband or digital initiatives could surprise positively." The Indian conglomerate foraying into "high-margin" niches like chocolates, cosmetics, and beverages by making acquisitions is also a positive, BofA Securities said. Further, it said Reliance's oil-to-chemical business is well positioned to generate $9-9.5 billion EBITDA for the next three years, thus providing cash-flow stability. "We also consider <keyword id="6484187" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ril" source="Orion">RIL</keyword> to be one of the very few Indian companies who have potential to be big in clean energy space mainly in solar, battery, electrolyser and fuel cells as they are setting gigafactories," it added. (ANI)

Reliance among BofA Securities' top 10 Asia Pacific stock recommendations

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks ended Monday mostly higher, led by a surge in Tesla on the potential for easing autonomous vehicle rules.</li><li>The Nasdaq 100 rebounded after a more than 3% drop last week, which was partly influenced by the Fed's interest-rate outlook.</li></ul>US stocks traded mostly higher on Monday, partly driven by a surge in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla.</a>Tesla stock jumped as much as 9% after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-reportedly-relaxing-self-driving-rules-tsla-2024-11">a report said</a> the incoming Trump administration was planning to ease regulations on autonomous vehicles.The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_100">Nasdaq 100</a> led the market higher, ending a five-day losing streak, while the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> gained slightly and the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones">Dow Jones</a> edged lower.The gains in the Nasdaq on Monday come after last week's more-than-3% decline, which was exacerbated by comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.Powell said in a Thursday speech that the Fed can take its time in lowering interest rates.Investors are now pricing in a 59% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut at December's Fed meeting, down from 80% before Powell's comments, according to the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">CME FedWatch tool</a>.Investors' top concerns this week include Nvidia's third-quarter earnings report, which is due after the market closes on Wednesday.For economic data, traders will be paying attention to housing starts and building permits, which are due out Tuesday morning. That will be followed by existing home sales and initial jobless claims, which are set to be released Thursday morning.Here's where US indexes stood at the 4 p.m. closing bell on Monday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,893.62, up 0.4%</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 43,389.60, down 0.1% (55 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,791.81, up 0.6%</li></ul>Here's what else happened today:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/donald-trump-election-win-high-inflation-risk-tariffs-deportations-taxes-2024-11">The stock market's Trump honeymoon is starting to turn sour</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/read-spirit-airlines-open-letter-customers-bankruptcy-keep-flying-booking-2024-11">Spirit Airlines filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection on Monday.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-blackwell-chip-ai-overheating-delay-share-price-2024-11">Nvidia's next-gen Blackwell GPU chip has reportedly hit an overheating snag.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-fed-rate-cuts-outlook-economy-trump-tariffs-tax-cuts-2024-11">Watch these 4 signs of re-inflation ahead of Trump's second administration.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-morgan-stanley-mike-wilson-bullish-11-upside-2024-11">Morgan Stanley strategist Mike Wilson turned bullish on stocks, issuing a 2025 year-end price target of 6,500 for the S&amp;P 500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-trump-reportedly-relaxing-self-driving-rules-tsla-2024-11">Uber shares fell 5% following concerns that a Tesla autonomous vehicle network could impact its business negatively.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil rose 3.32% to $69.14 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, was higher by 3.18% to $73.30 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> increased 1.66% to $2,612.70 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield dropped 2 basis points to 4.422%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> gained 1.58% to $91,300.</li></ul>

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