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<ul class="summary-list"><li>A strong jobs report would boost low-quality stocks, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley analysts say.</li><li>Goldman says it would prompt investors to price in smaller odds of further labor-market weakness.</li></ul>Investor eyes are locked on the upcoming jobs report, due Friday. If it comes in strong, that will be great news for less-loved, lower-quality stocks, analysts from Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say.A strong report will compel investors to price in smaller chances of further labor market weakening, giving them more confidence to invest in riskier stocks, the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote in a new report."A positive jobs print could prompt some investors to rotate out of expensive 'quality' stocks into less-loved lower-quality firms," the analysts said.The consensus estimate for September nonfarm-payroll additions is 150,000, which would be an increase from the prior month. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate — which unexpectedly jumped in August — is projected to stay unchanged at 4.2%.While Goldman didn't specify exactly what it meant by a "strong" report, anything exceeding the 150,000 NFP estimate would likely fit the bill, as would another shock decline in unemployment.The Goldman Sachs analysts, led by chief US equity strategist David Kostin, noted that so-called quality stocks have outperformed in 2024 amid persistently high inflation that pushed off interest-rate cuts longer than most envisioned. But since the Fed's first rate cut, stocks possessing quality factors like strong balance sheets and margins have "moved down to sideways."Morgan Stanley's equity-strategy team is also keyed in on the jobs report."I still believe that over the next 3-6 months, equity performance, at both the index and sector/factor level, will be determined more by labor data than anything else," Mike Wilson, the firm's CIO, said in a recent note.Wilson also highlighted the jobs report as a possible catalyst for rotation towards low quality in the stock market.In an analysis published on Sunday, Wilson said that under an ultra-positive scenario where unemployment goes below 4.1%, nonfarm payrolls come in above 150,000, and the Fed does more than two 25-basis-point rate cuts by year-end, lower-quality cyclical stocks would be among those poised to benefit most.

Top Wall Street strategists say a strong jobs report will kick off a rotation into lower-quality stocks

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Vaccine stocks have tumbled since Trump appointed vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to health secretary.</li><li>Vaccine-makers Moderna, Pfizer, and GSK saw sharp losses.</li></ul>It's been a tough day for health stocks since Donald Trump announced his appointment of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-robert-f-kennedy-jr-rfk-department-health-human-services-2024-11">Robert F. Kennedy Jr.</a> — a staunch vaccine skeptic — as health secretary.The news, which came late in the day on Thursday, sent the shares of vaccine-makers sharply lower on Friday, with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/mrna-stock">Moderna</a> leading the losses, falling as much as 10%. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/pfe-stock">Pfizer</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvax-stock">Novavax</a> both dropped 6% at intraday lows, while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/gsk-stock">GSK</a> lost 5%.But the selling wasn't contained to just vaccine names. It spread into US-exposed European healthcare stocks, such as Novo Nordisk and Roche, which were down 5% and 3% at intraday lows, respectively.The losses extend a days-long skid for the sector after the election results last week saw investors boost bets that Kennedy — a key Trump ally — would notch a cabinet role.Since Election Day, Moderna has fallen more than 30%, while Pfizer has slid 11%. Those losses have stood in contrast to the rally enjoyed by the rest of the market, which has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">rallied</a> on the hopes that Trump's lighter regulatory stance and corporate tax cuts could boost corporate earnings.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/robert-f-kennedy-jr-views-vaccines-autism-testing-debunked-2023-7">Kennedy</a> has long railed against vaccines, once calling those that protect against Covid-19 a "crime against humanity." He has treaded more carefully in recent weeks, though, and has said he wouldn't outright ban vaccines."If vaccines are working for somebody, I'm not going to take that away. People ought to have choice," he told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/trump-win-rfk-jr-says-wont-take-away-anybodys-vaccines-rcna178955">NBC</a> after Trump's election.Since Trump's election win, several analysts have downgraded their outlooks on vaccine stocks amid the rising uncertainty in the industry. Bank of America analysts lowered their price target on Moderna last week, from $110 to $90, partially citing uncertainty after Trump's election win, while Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Papadakis cut his rating on GSK to a hold after Kennedy's appointment."We consider vaccines to be amongst the greatest scientific achievements to impact public health: unfortunately this view is not shared by the nominee," Papadakis wrote in a client note <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-11-15/health-stocks-slide-as-trump-picks-vaccine-skeptic-kennedy">seen by Bloomberg</a>.Formerly an environmental justice lawyer, Kennedy pivoted to running an anti-vaccine charity in recent years, and ran for president as an independent candidate in this election cycle. He dropped out to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rfk-jr-drops-out-presidential-race-2024-8">endorse Trump</a> in August, which some sources reported was a bid to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rfk-wanted-white-house-job-exchange-for-endorsing-trump-report-2024-7">secure a position</a> in the administration.In his role as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-rfk-jr-plans-to-make-america-healthy-again-2024-11">health secretary</a>, Kennedy will have a top role in health policy in the US, but likely won't be able to actually control which vaccines children are required to get for school. That will remain up to individual states, but he could change vaccine requirements for federal employees or the US military.That's if the Senate confirms his appointment, which some have said could be a close vote considering mixed reactions among policymakers so far.Kennedy has also promoted removing fluoride from water supplies and overhauling federal food regulations, and has supported products like raw milk, which the Food and Drug Administration warns against.He's also floated hopes to cut highly processed food from school lunches, which was a priority under the Obama administration.

Health stocks are tumbling after Trump's appointment of vaccine skeptic RFK Jr.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks surged Friday, with the Dow Jones hitting a record high on new inflation data.</li><li>The personal consumption expenditures Index rose 2.5% year-over-year, matching estimates.</li></ul>US stocks moved higher on Friday, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average testing record highs as investors digested new inflation data.The Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, considered to be the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, was in-line with the prior reading for the month of July.The PCE Index rose 2.5% year over year, which was in line with economist estimates, and it rose 0.2% month over month, also in line with estimates.Fitch Ratings economist Olu Sonola said the PCE data was a "double dose of good news" for investors."Inflation prints are slowly but surely becoming boring again as this report continues the recent streak of benign core and headline inflation prints. Consumer spending continues to surprisingly exceed all expectations, a clear indication that the economy continues to be in good shape with solid above-trend growth," Sonola said.Aside from the inflation data, investors are parsing over solid earnings reports that were released after the market close on Thursday, mainly from <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/dell-stock">Dell Technologies</a> and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/mrvl-stock">Marvell Technology.</a>Both tech-focused companies beat second-quarter profit and revenue estimates, with their respective AI-focused businesses driving the beats.Shares of Marvell soared 12% in Friday morning trades, while Dell Technologies stock was up 5%.Here's where US indexes stood shortly after the 9:30 a.m. opening bell on Friday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,617.86, up 0.46% </li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 41,431.05, up 0.23% (+96 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 17,647.97, 0.71%</li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-china-banks-return-payments-shipped-goods-exports-sanctions-2024-8">Some Chinese banks are so fearful of sanctions that they're returning payments for goods that have reached Russia.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple-investing-business-deal-openai-chatgpt-tech-microsoft-ai-2024-8">OpenAI is raising more money, and potential new investors could reportedly include Apple and Nvidia.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-tim-walz-first-interview-cnn-takeaways-2024-8">Here are the 5 takeaways from Kamala Harris and Tim Walz's first joint interview since launching their campaign.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-frozen-reserves-funds-us-sanctions-g7-ukraine-aid-outlook-2024-8">The EU will push ahead with plans to use frozen Russian funds to aid Ukraine despite US concerns.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-vs-apple-top-ai-stock-iphone16-device-chips-citi-2024-8">Apple will eclipse Nvidia as the top AI stock in 2025 as it gears up to launch its iPhone 16, Citi said.</a></li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil decreased 2.42% to $74.07 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, dropped 2.11% to $77.16 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price">Gold</a> was lower by 0.46% to $2,548.40 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield was flat at 3.872%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd">Bitcoin</a> rose 0.39% to $59,600.</li></ul>

Stock market today: US stocks rise on solid earnings and in-line inflation reading

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Investors boosted stocks after Donald Trump won a second term.</li><li>But investors shouldn't depart from their long-term investing plan, Morningstar's Dave Sekera says.</li></ul>Investors had a field day on Wednesday, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">plowing money into the stock market</a> following the news that former president Donald Trump had won a second term. The S&amp;P 500 rose 2.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the day up a whopping 3.5%.But even as prices soar, it's important not to get caught up in the mania beyond your normal risk tolerance, warns Morningstar Senior US Market Strategist Dave Sekera."Don't let any of these dire headlines that you may see here in the short term dissuade you from your long-term investment objectives," Sekera said in a webinar on Wednesday morning."Based on your risk tolerance, I probably wouldn't be making any changes here today," he continued. "And when you do make changes, make sure that you're only making changes when there's really a change in your underlying fundamentals and only make changes in your portfolio based on an informed analysis."While not letting near-term developments derail your plan for your portfolio is classic advice, Sekera said there's another reason to be extra cautious: stock valuations are at some of their most expensive levels in the last decade-and-a-half."When I look at the market today, it is trading, with today's bump, probably a 3% to 4% premium above fair value," he said. "Now, a lot of investors may say, 'Eh, 3% to 4% doesn't sound like that much from a market point of view,' but when I look at our valuations going back to 2010, less than 20% of the time have we seen the market trade at this much of a premium or more."While Morningstar has its own proprietary valuation measures, common metrics show the S&amp;P 500 is indeed expensive. Below is the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio, for example. It's a 10-year rolling average of the market's trailing 12-month PE ratio.<div type="image" title="shiller cape ratio" height="943" width="1242" msid="115062287" hostid="261" sizebytes="44672"></div>These valuation levels have prompted some <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-why-sp500-decade-weak-returns-goldman-jpmorgan-2024-11">top investment banks</a>, including Goldman Sachs, to warn of relatively poor returns in the coming decade.At the same time, investors are probably right to be excited about the prospect of lower taxes and regulation, Sekera said. Even what some investors may view as negatives, like tariffs and the potential inflation that could result from them, may end up being a boon for stocks, he said."From the stock point of view, for those companies that have pricing power, that actually could end up helping them generate some additional earnings growth," he said.If Republicans end up taking a majority in the House of Representatives alongside their victory in the Senate and the White House, bullishness around more tax cuts may especially be well founded, according to Sekera.Still, markets are unpredictable, and investors shouldn't overreact to events like elections, as there are many variables at play beyond who is in political power — like starting valuations. Sekera pointed to a recent article from his colleague John Rekenthaler, where he highlighted that oil stocks have done much better under President Joe Biden than they did during Trump's first term, despite their differing attitudes toward the fossil fuel industry.That's again why Sekera is urging restraint, with the market being expensive. That is particularly true for growth stocks, which trade at a "very large premium," he said.Value stocks and small-caps are where Sekera sees the most opportunity — especially in the latter."The small-cap space, even with today's bump, it's still the most undervalued part of the market in our view," he said.

Why you shouldn't get caught up in the post-election stock-market frenzy: Morningstar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Indexes slipped on Wednesday led by a sell-off in chip stocks.</li><li>Alphabet rose after delivering a big earnings beat.</li></ul>US stock ended lower on Wednesday as encouraging tech earnings were eclipsed by a sell-off among semiconductor shares. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/goog-stock">Alphabet's</a> <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-third-quarter-earnings-report-q3-2024-2024-10#:~:text=Revenue%20from%20Google%20Cloud%20grew,%25%20in%20after%2Dhours%20trading.&amp;text=Alphabet%20and%20Google%20CEO%20Sundar,investments%20were%20%22paying%20off.%22">big earnings beat</a> helped send its stock up almost 3% in the session, but major indexes fell as <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/chipmakers-amd-smci-super-micro-stock-auditor-earnings-report-guidance-2024-10?_gl=1*1ys7uu1*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE4MDQ4LjYwLjAuMA..">chipmakers suffered losses.</a>AMD and Super Micro Computer led the rout. The former fell on weak fourth-quarter guidance, while Super Micro plummeted on news that its auditor resigned due to company concerns. AMD dropped almost 11%, while SMCI plunged 33%. However, investors have more big tech earnings to look forward to.Shares of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/msft-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Microsoft</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/meta-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Meta</a> traded higher as traders anticipated their <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">financial results</a> on after the closing bell. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/aapl-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Apple</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/amzn-stock?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Amazon</a> are on deck to report after the close on Thursday.Macroeconomic data released on Wednesday highlighted ongoing strength in the US economy, diluting concern that interest rates might need to drop quickly to propel growth.Third-quarter US real GDP came in <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gdp-gross-domestic-product-third-quarter-economy-2024-10?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">at an annualized rate of 2.8%</a>, driven by a strong consumer. PCE, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, reached 2.2% — close to the central bank's target rate of 2%."This is excellent on the GDP, particularly when you look at the consumer spending," economist Claudia Sahm told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2024-10-30/gdp-report-not-one-to-be-afraid-of-economist-claudia-sahm">Bloomberg TV</a>. "It's not just one quarter: we have now put together four quarters that are about three percent growth in consumer spending, inflation-adjusted. "The labor market also appears strong, as ADP hiring rose by its fastest rate in over a year. The data potentially sets the stage for another big nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which will help inform the Fed's next move at its November 6-7 policy meeting. Here's where US indexes stood at the 4:00 p.m. closing bell on Wednesday:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,813.67, down 0.33% <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 42,141.54, down 0.22% (-91.51 points)</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq composite</a>: 18,607.93, down 0.56% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-us-vs-canada-david-rosenberg-bull-rally-2024-10?_gl=1*w92gmg*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE1OTIyLjU5LjAuMA..">Top economist David Rosenberg says Canadian stocks look poised to outperform the S&amp;P 500.</a></li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-undervalued-9-trillion-ai-spend-masayoshi-son-softbank-2024-10?_gl=1*15nw6jj*_ga*MTMxNDIwNDI1Ni4xNjc1Njg3OTU4*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTczMDMxNDE2OC43NzkuMS4xNzMwMzE2MDk0LjQ0LjAuMA..">Nvidia is undervalued as $9 trillion is still needed for superintelligent AI,</a> SoftBank's CEO said.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-manufacturing-production-boom-economy-made-in-america-trade-war-2024-10">US industrial re-shoring could be a $10 trillion economic opportunity,</a> according to Morgan Stanley.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto:<ul><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">West Texas Intermediate</a> crude oil jumped 2.38% to $68.81 a barrel. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, climbed 2.31% at $72.76 a barrel.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> inched up 0.59% to $2,797.6 an ounce.</li><li>The 10-year Treasury yield stayed essentially flat at 4.282%.</li><li><a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> eased by 1.43% to $71,786.57</li></ul>

Stock market today: Indexes slide as chipmaker rout drags tech ahead of key earnings

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US economy is on solid footing with cooling inflation and continued growth.</li><li>Yet, the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with analysts divided over how long the bull rally can run. </li></ul>Things are looking great for the US economy.Inflation is falling, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/employee-productivity-booming-workers-jobs-ai-stock-market-gdp-2024-3">productivity is rising,</a> and the Federal Reserve is easing monetary policy, which should act as a tailwind for economic growth.Economists have shifted from arguing about a potential recession to forecasting whether a "soft landing" or "no landing" is more likely. It seems the debate is simply <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/america-new-economic-supercycle-growth-inflation-stock-market-global-chaos-2024-10">about how fast the economy can grow from here.</a>But the outlook for the stock market is less clear, with major Wall Street banks still divided on whether stock prices have further room to run.Stocks are trading near record highs, with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> on track to deliver back-to-back annual gains of more than 20%.Among the top analysts at Wall Street banks, there's some disagreement about whether all of the good news is priced in already or if the market can continue to rise beyond already lofty valuations. On the one hand, most see the gains set to continue, pushing past election uncertainty and continuing to lift stocks into 2025. However, beyond that timeline, uncertainty builds and outlooks get murky. Here's what Wall Street is saying about the prospects for the stock market heading into 2025 and beyond.<h2 id="62a39dfb-29e2-437a-b286-98b65dca264e">The Bulls</h2>A slew of Wall Street banks are chasing the record rally in the stock market this year, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-targets-bull-market-goldman-ubs-bmo-2024-10">boosting their S&amp;P 500 year-end price targets</a> to play catch-up.Strategists at UBS <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-prediction-us-economy-no-landing-ubs-2024-10">increased their S&amp;P 500 price targets</a> in a note last week, expecting the S&amp;P 500 to hit 6,300 by June 2025 and 6,600 at the end of next year.That represents potential upside of 8% and 13%, respectively.UBS CIO head of US equities David Lefkowitz said "healthy" earnings growth will pave the way for further stock gains."Third-quarter earnings season has started on a positive note with bank management teams highlighting that consumer spending remains healthy and consistent with normal economic growth," Lefkowitz said.The bank said improving inflation, more Fed rate cuts, and accelerating investment in artificial intelligence should all help support the stock market next year.Strength begets more strength, and that's a big part of BMO strategist Brian Belski's bullish outlook for stocks into 2025.Belski <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-bmo-raises-year-end-sp500-price-target-2024-9">increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,100</a> from 5,600 last month, making him one of the most bullish strategists on Wall Street."We continue to be surprised by the strength of market gains and decided yet again that something more than an incremental adjustment was warranted," Belski said in the note.He's also encouraged by the broadening out of the stock market rally, as it's no longer concentrated in a handful of tech giants. That's healthy behavior for sustainable stock market gains, according to the note."This is a trend we expect to continue and should help to support future market gains even if the price and fundamental performance of Mag-X stocks continues to decelerate in the months ahead," Belski said.<h2 id="fc7c3d7b-c8d5-4665-bd3c-1c08a92b6ce4">The Bears</h2>The bearish strategists on Wall Street are sticking to their views even after being wrong all year. Their top worry is the potential for fewer interest rate cuts than expected and growing hype in AI that might fail to deliver.JPMorgan strategists have held firm to their bearish S&amp;P 500 year-end price target of 4,200, which represents potential downside of 28% from current levels.In a note earlier this month, JPMorgan strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas admitted that a recession appears off the table but said that AI investments are unlikely to pay off with lingering questions around monetization issues.Additionally, investor expectations of a Federal Reserve that is about to embark on a string of interest rate cuts could be disappointed if the economy continues to stay resilient, as it would limit the Fed's ability to cut rates, likely putting downward pressure on stock prices.Finally, JPMorgan warned in a note on Monday that third-quarter earnings have seen a flurry of estimate downgrades as sell-side analysts lower their expectations."Earnings downgrades have been significant," JPMorgan said, adding that they "appear to be worsening."Stifel strategist Barry Bannister has warned investors about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-crash-sp500-prediction-bubble-overvalued-stifel-outlook-2024-10">a potential plunge in the stock market in 2025.</a>Elevated valuations, unfounded expectations for more Fed rate cuts, and hype for AI that ultimately falls short of expectations could create a perfect storm for lower stock prices next year."We took a clean sheet look at the equity market and came away with the same smh (shaking my head) emoji reaction. Despite all the soft-landing and Fed rate cut optimism, the S&amp;P 500 up almost 40% y/y has simply over-shot," Bannister said.While the strategist admitted that a "mania" could take hold in the market and push stock prices even higher from here, it will ultimately end with a crescendo and then a fresh swing to the downside."Sure, we can cherry-pick with the best of them and apply the most over-valued cyclically adjusted valuation level of the past 35 years to show about 10% further upside, but that same analysis of a century of manias also returns the S&amp;P 500 in 2025 to where 2024 began (down 26% from that prospective peak)," Bannister said.<h2 id="1f44d16a-28c8-40a7-bee1-9a426c3bf02e">Somewhere in between</h2>Goldman Sachs strategist David Kostin is bullish, at least in the short term.The bank's chief stock strategist recently increased his year-end S&amp;P 500 price target to 6,000 on the prospect of further growth in corporate earnings. "The primary driver of the upward revision to our 2025 EPS estimate is greater margin expansion," Kostin said. "The macro backdrop remains conducive to modest margin expansion, with prices charged outpacing input cost growth."And yet, Kostin also argues that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">a golden era of stock market returns is probably over</a>. In a note over the weekend, Kostin issued his 10-year forecast for the stock market. He said that a combination of extreme market concentration and high valuations suggests the S&amp;P 500 will deliver annualized returns of just 3% over the next 10 years. That's compared to the S&amp;P 500's annualized return of about 13% over the past 10 years."Investors should be prepared for equity returns during the next decade that are towards the lower end of their typical performance distribution relative to bonds and inflation," Kostin said.Goldman also sees stocks struggling relative to other assets over the next decade. The bank says the S&amp;P 500 has about a 72% chance of trailing bond-market returns and a 33% probability of lagging inflation through 2034.His long-term view aligns with other bears who fret that the coming decade will look much worse than the last. Stifel's Bannister has also argued for a "lost decade" for the stock market.

Wall Street is divided on the future of stocks. Here are bull and bear cases from the biggest banks.

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Men far outnumber women as news influencers on social media, per a new Pew Research Center study.</li><li>That contrasts with other parts of the creator industry, where women dominate.</li></ul>News anchoring was once a male-dominated enterprise led by figures like Walter Cronkite and Edward R. Murrow. That gender skew is showing up again in the latest platform for news: social media.Male influencers far outnumber female creators when it comes to delivering the news on social media, according to a new <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/journalism/2024/11/18/americas-news-influencers/">study</a> from the Pew Research Center.Pew analyzed a sample set of 500 news influencers with at least 100,000 followers and found that 63% were male and 30% were female. The remaining 7% were either non-binary or had undetermined genders.That gender gap stands out for a few reasons:<ul><li>First, there's a much narrower gender divide (51% male and 46% female) among working US journalists, per a 2022 Pew <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2023/04/04/us-journalists-beats-vary-widely-by-gender-and-other-factors/">survey</a>.</li><li>Second, women tend to outnumber men in the influencer industry broadly. Influencer agency Izea saw a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://izea.com/resources/insights/2023-state-of-influencer-equality/#:~:text=2023%20Report&amp;text=Over%20the%20past%20eight%20years%2C%20average%20earnings%20have%20dramatically%20risen,in%20the%20United%20States%20population.">gender gap</a> when it compared the share of sponsorship deals earned by women (77%) and men (21%) in 2022.</li></ul>As creators take on a bigger role in educating the public about current events, the gender gap among social-media news influencers could shape what stories end up reaching people.The social-media gender split was a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/podcaster-new-politics-power-broker-harris-and-trump-know-it-2024-10">hot-button issue</a> in the 2024 US presidential election, as both parties <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/influencers-dnc-democratic-national-convention-traditional-media-journalist-digital-strategy-2024-8">courted influencers</a> to make content around their campaigns.Donald Trump and JD Vance may have benefited from a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wired.com/story/donald-trump-online-campaign-era/">media strategy</a> centered on male influencers. The candidates went on a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/youtube-donald-trump-podcasts-joe-rogan2024-11">tour</a> this year to reach young men via appearances with Joe Rogan, the Nelk Boys, and Adin Ross. John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/21/opinion/trump-gen-z-men-harris.html">described</a> the strategy as "bro whispering." Exit <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://apnews.com/article/election-harris-trump-women-latinos-black-voters-0f3fbda3362f3dcfe41aa6b858f22d12">polls</a> suggest Trump did gain ground with young men in 2024 compared to his 2020 run.Kamala Harris turned to a different niche of creator to try to reach young women, including an interview with "Call Her Daddy" podcaster Alex Cooper.<div type="image" title="Nabela Noor was one of five content creators that spoke at the Democratic National Convention on Monday night." height="683" width="1024" msid="115423848" hostid="261" sizebytes="21738"></div>Harris also made overtures to reach men, such as an appearance on the sports podcast "All The Smoke," as well as on "The Howard Stern Show." But in the wake of her election loss, some political commentators <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P4QHOS4osEM">lamented</a> her decision not to appear on Rogan's podcast, which is consistently the top-ranked show on Spotify and Apple Podcasts.In Pew's analysis, there was a much smaller (and flipped) gender gap in the overall audience for news content on social media among young people. Twenty-three percent of US adult women under 30 said they regularly got news from news influencers, compared to 19% of men in that age group."The influencers who are providing news and people who are getting news don't necessarily look the same," Galen Stocking, a senior computational social scientist at Pew who coauthored the report, told BI.This suggests that a strategy of trying to reach women voters by focusing on podcasts anchored by women could miss a portion of the electorate.<h2 id="14166cf2-6038-4c35-86d0-7299411a9a16">Are news influencers widening the US political gender gap?</h2>Young people are increasingly divided along partisan lines. Men between the ages of 18 and 29 are becoming more conservative and women in that age group are becoming more liberal, per <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/649826/exploring-young-women-leftward-expansion.aspx">Gallup polling</a>. The extent to which media diets are contributing to that change is harder to drill down, however.Pew's sample set of news influencers skewed slightly conservative, with 27% identifying as right-leaning and 21% as left-leaning. Still, only around half of the news influencers explicitly shared their political orientation.Whatever their impact on partisanship, creators have clearly taken on a bigger role in shaping the information landscape as traditional newsrooms have lost some trust. Fifty-nine percent of US adults surveyed by Pew in September said they had a lot or some trust in information from national news organizations, down from 76% in 2016. Trust in information from social media remained steady over the same period, growing from 34% to 37%.<h2 id="210dd0f2-1334-4ec8-80f2-1c59ca935fa9">YouTube had the biggest gender gap, while TikTok's was minimal</h2>The gender divide among news influencers was fairly consistent across all platforms in Pew's study. The one exception was TikTok, where 50% of news creators were male and 45% were female.TikTok has become an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/gen-z-gets-news-from-tiktok-influencers-media-industry-2023-12">increasingly important news source</a> among young adults, who turn to the app for news commentary and on-the-ground videos tied to current events.YouTube saw the biggest gender divide among news influencers, a gap that other researchers said showed up in the YouTube audience, too. A Spring poll of 18- to 29-year-old Americans by the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics found that 31% of young men turn to YouTube to learn about current events, compared to 20% of women.

There's a gender gap among news influencers on social media, new Pew data shows

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AI stocks like Nvidia, Super Micro Computer, and Broadcom soared nearly 20% this week.</li><li>The rally was sparked as Oracle and Nvidia CEOs addressing concerns about AI returns.</li></ul>The stock market's artificial intelligence trade was revived this week, with shares of AI stalwarts like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia</a>, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/smci-stock">Super Micro Computer</a>, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/avgo-stock">Broadcom</a> all soaring nearly 20%.AI-related names and semiconductor shares were caught in a slump following Nvidia's second-quarter earnings two weeks ago. Nvidia shares slid sharply after the company failed to meet sky-high expectations, which led to investors questioning how much further the AI trade could possibly run after a yearslong hot streak. Questions about the return on the billions of dollars worth of investment into AI by big firms led to a sell-off in the wider space. But the market staged a comeback this week as key players separately addressed some burning questions investors are asking about what to expect from big AI spend. At midday on Friday, shares of Nvidia and Oracle were both 16% higher for the week, while Super Micro Computer stock was up 19%, and Broadcom rose 21%. Helping to drive the week's resurgence were <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/orcl-stock">Oracle</a> cofounder, chairman, and billionaire investor Larry Ellison, along with Nvidia cofounder and CEO Jensen Huang.Both executives addressed concerns about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/ai-stocks-risk-nvidia-gpus-blackwell-tech-outlook-depreciation-accounting-2024-8">the return on investment for AI infrastructure spend,</a> and investors seem to be taking their word for it.<h2 id="b46ae1b0-31fd-46e1-a2f2-5e74ba98258f">Oracle's Ellison: 'This race goes on forever'</h2>Oracle reported solid earnings after the market close on Monday, and on the earnings call, Ellison made a point to talk up the immense potential of artificial intelligence.Talking about the sustainability of AI infrastructure spending trends, which have exploded in recent years, Ellison said it's not going to stop."This race goes on forever, to build a better and better neural network. And the cost of that training gets to be astronomical," Ellison said.He added: "I think this is an ongoing battle for technical supremacy that will be fought by a handful of companies and maybe one nation-state over the next five years at least, but probably more like 10. So this business is just growing larger and larger and larger. There's no slowdown or shift coming."Since those bullish comments, Oracle shares soared as much as 24% at their intraday peak on Friday.At its analyst day on Friday, Oracle also gave investors long-term annual revenue guidance of $104 billion by 2029 with earnings per share set to grow more than 20% between now and then."This matched the bullishness the Company has been coyly hinting at for a number of months now; this was the upside to expectations that justifies continued multiple expansion, in our view," KeyBanc analyst Jackson Ader said in a note.According to Ellison, building an AI training model for cloud companies will cost upward of $100 billion."That's over the next four, five years for anyone who wants to play in that game. That's a lot of money, and it doesn't get easier," Ellison said.That should be great news for Nvidia, which is the main supplier of AI-enabling GPU chips that cloud companies use to build their models.<h2 id="ce90f725-5b29-4e18-9be9-fff77569b08c">Nvidia's Huang: 'You get a 10x savings'</h2>At a Goldman Sachs conference on Wednesday, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was directly asked about concerns related to its customers' return on investment in AI spending, and Huang gave a direct answer."The return on that is fantastic because the demand is so great that for every dollar they spend with us translates to $5 worth of rentals. And that's happening all over the world and everything is all sold out," Huang said of the cloud hyper scalers buying his company's chips.On top of that, Huang explained that could companies are seeing immense cost savings with Nvidia's GPUs thanks to the computation inflation found with CPUs."You reduce the computing time by about 20 times, and so you get a 10x savings," Huang said of running Nvidia's GPU accelerators relative to traditional CPUs.Shares of Nvidia have surged 12% since Huang took the stage at Goldman's conference Wednesday morning.The AI rally has spread throughout the tech sector this week, with semiconductor stocks seeing renewed interest and a nearly 10% surge.

Why the stock market's AI trade came back to life this week

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The bulls on Wall Street have been largely right about the stock market over the past two years.</li><li>Business Insider asked three bullish stock strategists what they consider the biggest risks.</li></ul>With the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> trading less than 1% below its record highs, there's plenty to be bullish about on Wall Street.Inflation is falling back to the Federal Reserve's long-term target, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-claudia-sahm-fed-jumbo-rate-cut-next-week-2024-9">interest rate cuts appear imminent,</a> and corporate earnings, the consumer, and the broader economy are all proving resilient.But there are plenty of risks, too, with some economists <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-recession-outlook-economic-indicators-unemployment-sahm-rule-david-rosenberg-2024-8">worried about a cooling labor market and a potential recession.</a>Yet, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-recession-100-chance-within-year-inflation-fed-rate-hikes-2022-10">those economists have been largely wrong</a> about what could sink the stock market and economy.Business Insider talked to several <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-recession-wont-knock-down-sp500-next-year-2023-11">people who have been right so far in the past few years</a>, including three bullish strategists, to gauge what's worrying them about the stock market as it cruises to fresh records. Here's what they had to say.<h2 id="8462fb98-a7b3-4420-a992-312fa3d5f99a">BMO's Brian Belski</h2>For BMO chief investment strategist Brian Belski, his big concern is that he's betting against fewer people in the market as overwhelmingly bearish sentiment just a few months ago has now flipped bullish."In May/June, when you had a lot of bears or those that had been late to jump on the bull parade all of a sudden switch their forecasts and kind of chase markets up, which is pretty, I mean pretty, pretty, pretty classic," Belski told Business Insider.He added: "I just think that too many people are bullish again."Though it sounds counterintuitive, Belski is worried about the stock market moving significantly higher, not lower, from here, because that would set up a prime environment for a sharp pullback down the road."I don't want to see a super spike now. I think the faster the market goes up right now, that would worry me," Belski said.And with many investors feeling bullish about stocks, the market is more vulnerable to a sell-off if there's a macro surprise that badly misses estimates."From a sentiment perspective, we're one bad macro data point away from a pullback," Belski said.As to what that macro data point could be, a surprise surge in inflation, a really bad jobs report, or a big miss from Nvidia all come to mind for Belski.<h2 id="664aaf94-29d7-4cd0-8675-f7ebca4f3a49">Yardeni Research's Eric Wallerstein</h2>Eric Wallerstein, chief market strategist at Yardeni Research, told Business Insider that there are two tail risks that could halt the stock market's advance that should be on investors' radars.The first one is rising geopolitical tensions."Let's say the Middle East blows out, Russia-Ukraine, China-Taiwan, like just the overall geopolitical scene is much more tense," Wallerstein said.On top of that, populist movements and nationalism are gaining popularity in countries around the world, and that's not great for a globalized economy, according to Wallerstein. "That just leads to a world with less strand and less growth," Wallerstein said.The second risk is, similar to Belski's concern, a 1990's type melt-up in the stock market."The idea is, valuations expand and you kind of get a blow off top, because the market gets too ebullient, and then that creates the conditions to get a bear market," Wallerstein said.And the Fed could pour gasoline onto the fire if it cuts interest rates aggressively, according to Wallerstein."If they do cut that much, which is such an extreme path of policy, I think that blow off top becomes increasingly likely, and it's definitely something we're worried about," Wallerstein said.While riding a bubble on the way up isn't a bad thing, it's the sharp and quick downturn that often follows a bubble peak that could lead to a period of significant underperformance for investors.<h2 id="5ae1cfb1-3240-4f20-86f9-151f36be49a8">Carson Group's Sonu Varghese</h2>Sonu Varghese, global macro strategist at Carson Group, told Business Insider that he has been "thinking about rising risks for a few months now.""We still like equities and haven't changed our overweight, but we've increased our exposure to diversifiers like long-term treasuries and low volatility equities," Varghese said.Varghese's more defensive portfolio posture is driven mostly by what a policy mistake from the Federal Reserve could look like.With the inflation fight largely over, and labor market trends broadly weakening, "policy is too tight," Varghese said."The risk is that the Fed doesn't act aggressively enough to arrest the labor market downtrend, and instead follows a gradual approach to rate cuts that leaves them further behind the curve. Which also means they'll have to do larger catch up cuts later on (a re-run of what happened in 2022, but from the opposite side," Varghese explained.While he sees no risk of an imminent recession, he said the risk of a recession will rise within the next six to 12 months if the Fed falls far behind the curve."That could potentially impact equities - bad economic data will likely be traded as bad news by investors," Varghese warned.To be clear, all three of these strategists are sticking with stocks and still have a bullish view of what lies ahead for the market.But even they worry about the neverending list of potential risks.

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