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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel is facing an interceptor missile shortage, sources told the Financial Times.</li><li>The head of an Israeli manufacturer of interceptor missiles said its production lines are working 24/7.</li></ul>Israel's supply of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/see-israel-defense-systems-weapons-in-action-2024-4">interceptor missiles</a>, crucial for defending against enemy missile attacks, is under pressure, while the threat of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-potential-counterattack-iran-options-assasinations-oil-nuclear-military-bases-2024-10">escalation with Iran</a> remains a major concern, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/5b884be4-c883-421b-89d6-32cf860e97df">according to a report in the Financial Times.</a>Dana Stroul, a former senior US defense official who oversaw policy for the Middle East, told the FT that "Israel's munitions issue is serious."She warned that any potential retaliation by Iran to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-not-worried-hezbollah-backlash-iran-counterattack-lebanon-strike-2024-10">an anticipated Israeli attack</a>, coupled with more rocket fire from Hezbollah, could stretch the stockpile to its limits.Stroul also noted that the US is reaching a "tipping point," and may struggle to keep <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-gets-another-patriot-system-germany-russia-air-defense-drones-2024-7">supplying Ukraine</a> and Israel with interceptor missiles at the current pace.Ehud Eilam, a former researcher at Israel's Ministry of Defence, told the FT that during an attack on <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-used-one-of-most-advanced-missiles-massive-israel-attack-2024-10">October 1</a>, '"there was a sense the IDF reserved some Arrow interceptors in case Iran fired its next salvo at Tel Aviv."He added: "It's only a matter of time before Israel starts to run out of interceptors and has to prioritise how they are deployed."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/a-year-of-war-idf-data-shows-726-troops-killed-over-26000-rockets-fired-at-israel/">According to recent Israel Defense Forces data,</a> over 26,000 rockets, missiles, and drones were launched at Israel from multiple fronts between October 7, 2023, and last week.This included attacks from Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, and Iran.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-intel-from-failed-revenge-missile-strike-on-israel-isw-2024-4">Iran's large-scale air assault on Israel</a> in April was successfully defended against, according to the IDF, which <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-99-of-the-300-or-so-projectiles-fired-by-iran-at-israel-overnight-were-intercepted/">claimed</a> that 99% of the projectiles were intercepted.But a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-attacks-israel-with-missiles-after-hezbollah-leader-killing-2024-10">second major barrage on October 1</a> was more damaging — satellite images showed several missiles hit areas around the Nevatim airbase and the IDF said there were a small number of hits in central and southern Israel.Zvika Haimovich, a retired brigadier general who oversaw Israel's air defenses from 2015 to 2018, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.npr.org/2024/06/27/g-s1-6384/israel-iron-dome-hezbollah-hamas-missile-defense-limits">told NPR</a> in June that Israel was expending missiles faster than they could be manufactured."After eight months of thousands of interceptions, it's a big challenge," he said.Israel's multi-layered air defense system includes the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-uk-israeli-style-iron-dome-air-defense-sec-analyst-2024-5">Iron Dome,</a> used to intercept short-range rockets, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-iron-dome-davids-sling-arrow-network-shield-israel-threats-2023-10">David's Sling</a>, designed to destroy longer-range missiles, and the Arrow 2 and Arrow 3 systems, which can intercept long-range ballistic missiles.Boaz Levy, chief executive of Israel Aerospace Industries, the Israeli state-owned manufacturer of the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-used-new-arrow-system-first-time-stop-enemy-missile-2023-11">Arrow anti-ballistic missiles,</a> told the FT: "It is no secret that we need to replenish stocks."Levy said that the company's production lines are working "24 hours, seven days a week" to meet its obligations, while emphasizing that the production of interceptor missiles takes time, "not a matter of days."But Ori Wertman, a research fellow at the University of South Wales, whose work focuses on Israeli national security, expressed caution about reading too much into the idea that Israel was running low on missiles.He told Business Insider that he doubts Israel would fully exhaust its interceptor missile supply, and to approach the narrative of an Israeli interceptor missile shortage with caution."Using psychological warfare is part of the battlefield. Especially in the Middle East," he said, hinting that Israel could be playing mind games with its enemies."When some publications in newspapers show a weakness of one side, maybe it happens to make the other side think it, and then they strike when the other side thinks they are weak," he said, pointing to Israel's killing of Hezbollah leader <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/who-was-hassan-nasrallah-the-hezbollah-leader-killed-by-israel-2024-9">Hassan Nasrallah</a> last month."Several weeks ago, just before the assassination, there were talks about a cease-fire," he said.Wertman also said that the Iron Dome was already selective in what it intercepts, so some missiles do get through."If they see that the missile, in an accuracy of almost 100%, won't hit a civilian target or an army base, but it will fall in a vacant place, like a field, it won't intercept it," he told BI. "Why waste the money?"According to estimates, the Iron Dome's "Tamir" interceptor missiles <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-20385306">cost about $50,000 each.</a>Meanwhile, amid the threat of a further escalation between Israel and Iran, the US announced this month that it would deploy a <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" href="http://www.lockheedmartin.com/us/products/thaad.html">Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense</a>, or THAAD, missile defense system to Israel.The THAAD battery, which will arrive with a crew of American military personnel to operate the system, will supplement Israel's air-defense network, the Pentagon press secretary, Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, said in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/combat-testing-record-thaad-us-missile-defense-system-israel-iran-2024-10">statement</a>.The highly advanced air defense system is believed to cost between $1.96 and <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://static.rusi.org/201508_op_ballistic_missile_defence.pdf">$3.25 billion.</a>

Israel's interceptor missiles are under pressure as threats loom larger

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Israel and Ukraine have weathered repeated ballistic missile attacks.</li><li>Ballistic missiles can strike with little to no warning time.</li></ul>The fireworks were impressive. Explosions, flames, and fiery streaks across the sky.But after launching <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/irans-missile-strike-israel-just-fraction-what-china-could-do-2024-10">hundreds</a> of ballistic missiles at Israel in two separate barrages, what has Iran to show for it? In the April attack — which comprised 300 missiles and drones — most were intercepted by forces from the US, Israel, Britain and Jordan. The October strike by 180 ballistic missiles saw a higher percentage of rockets penetrate defenses. Nonetheless, those that got through appear to have inflicted relatively <a target="_blank" href="https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/irans-missile-attack-challenge-israel-cant-ignore">minor damage</a>: some craters, a partly collapsed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/school-in-gedera-severely-damaged-by-iranian-missile-impact/">school building</a>, and multiple strikes on an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=meHjp7iYV98">Israeli Air Force base</a> that is still operational.Despite all the threats from Iran, Israel's military, infrastructure, and public morale remain intact. This resilience has similarities with Ukraine, whose population has endured two years of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-kinzhal-missiles-beaten-by-patriots-slip-past-ukraine-defenses-2024-3">Russian missile attacks</a> but continues to fight on.All of which raises a question: is the danger of ballistic missiles overhyped? The issue has become more important than ever. Fifty years ago, the US and the Soviet Union owned most of the world's missile arsenal. Today, there are <a target="_blank" href="https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/worldwide-ballistic-missile-inventories">31 nations</a> that have ballistic missiles, plus non-state groups such as Hezbollah. With that much rocketry in the world, they are likely to be used in future wars.The threat of ballistic missiles — which follow a ballistic trajectory, rising to the edge of the atmosphere or into space, and then falling like a cannon ball — dates back 80 years, to just before the dawn of the Space Age. In 1944, Nazi Germany unleashed the <a target="_blank" href="https://airandspace.si.edu/collection-objects/missile-surface-surface-v-2-4/nasm_A19600342000">V-2</a>, considered the world's first guided ballistic missile. Nearly 3,000 V-2s were launched at targets in Western Europe, with about half aimed at Britain. The British public was no stranger to death from the air: they had already endured the bomber raids of the Blitz, and the V-1 buzz bombs that were the forerunner of today's cruise missiles. But at least those weapons could be detected, giving time for people to take cover or air defenses to shoot them down. The V-2 was something different: ascending 60 miles to the edge of outer space, it slammed into its target without warning.Hitler promised the German people that the "wunderwaffe" (wonder weapons) would bring victory. Instead, the V-2 consumed considerable resources yet neither damaged the enemy's warmaking potential nor broke the population's support for the war. One problem was accuracy. The Germans estimated that the circular error probable — a standard measurement of how close 50% of munitions land to a target — was almost <a target="_blank" href="http://www.astronautix.com/v/v-2.html">three miles</a> for the V-2. By 1945, US B-17 bombers had a CEP of a quarter-mile.But the real problem was the payload. The V-2's warhead was just one ton of high explosive, delivered by a weapon that could only be used once. A B-17 Flying Fortress carried four tons of bombs, a British Lancaster could drop seven tons — and these planes could fly dozens of missions. Granted that there was the expense — and the risk — to the crew. But the US and Britain were flying raids of a thousand bombers each: even if accuracy was far from perfect, the sheer number of bombs devastated cities and, towards the war's end, hampered critical infrastructure such as oil refineries. Even this massive operation, however, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-is-israel-trying-to-achieve-in-gaza-bombing-2023-12">failed</a> to break German morale.In the 1980s came the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/CIA-RDP88T00096R000100120003-6.pdf">"War of the Cities,"</a> when Iraq and Iran fired hundreds of ballistic missiles against each other's urban areas. Despite tens of thousands of civilian casualties, morale in neither nation collapsed, and the Iran-Iraq War dragged on for eight years. In 2015, Iranian-backed <a target="_blank" href="https://www.csis.org/analysis/iranian-and-houthi-war-against-saudi-arabia">Houthi</a> rebels in Yemen began a bombardment campaign against Saudi Arabia that included ballistic missiles. Though inflicting some damage on oil facilities, this was intended as political coercion against Saudi intervention in Yemen rather than an all-out attack on the kingdom.<div type="image" title="Missiles launched from Iran are seen in the sky over Tel Aviv." height="1333" width="2000" msid="114169750" hostid="261" sizebytes="151262"></div>It is not that conventional ballistic missiles aren't lethal, especially the modern versions. The early gyroscopic guidance systems on the V-2 have been replaced by more accurate <a target="_blank" href="https://www.advancednavigation.com/tech-articles/inertial-guidance-a-brief-history-and-overview/">inertial guidance</a>: a <a target="_blank" href="https://missilethreat.csis.org/missile/minuteman-iii/">Minuteman</a> ICBM has a reported CEP of about 130 feet, which is fine for a nuclear warhead but not for a precision strike on a small target. For advanced missile powers such as America and Russia, inertial guidance can be supplemented by other systems, such as GPS, and onboard radar linked to a map of the terrain. US-made ATACMS GPS-guided missiles, for example, have proven quite accurate in Ukraine.Ironically, this can lead to what one expert has called the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-military-confidence-smart-bombs-may-have-a-fatal-flaw-2024-6">"precision paradox."</a> Accuracy doesn't always equal effectiveness: if a smart bomb misses its target, then follow-on strikes to accomplish the mission can actually cause as much collateral damage as unguided weapons.And therein lies the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-iran-relies-on-ballistic-missiles-to-threaten-its-adversaries-2024-10">appeal of ballistic missiles</a> for less technologically advanced nations and militant groups. Even if they're not accurate, the mere threat of long-range missile bombardment might coerce or deter an adversary. With an estimated 3,000 ballistic missiles, Iran fields a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.iranwatch.org/our-publications/weapon-program-background-report/table-irans-missile-arsenal">variety of designs</a> of varying accuracy, some based on the Soviet Scud or North Korea's Nodong. Tehran claims its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-missile-strike-israel-shows-capability-greater-scale-complexity-2024-10-02/">latest missiles</a> have a CEP of around 65 feet, a suspect claim given the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/iran-ballistic-missiles-to-russia-questionable-accuracy-2024-9">observed inaccuracy</a> of some missiles in the April attack. A CEP of under 100 feet may be enough for damaging sprawling facilities such as airbases, ports and oil refineries. Against a pinpoint target such as a specific building, that might not be sufficient. And to get to that target, these weapons must get past increasingly capable air defense systems like <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-giving-ukraine-second-patriot-missile-system-fight-russia-reports-2024-6">Patriot</a>, Aegis, Arrow and Iron Dome.Even then, the question remains: Can ballistic missiles win a war? This echoes a debate from World War II, when Allied bomber chiefs argued that bombing German cities would win the war without the need for boots on the ground. Yet even after the Allies dropped <a target="_blank" href="https://repository.lsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=4267&amp;context=gradschool_theses">2.7 million tons</a> of bombs in Europe, the Third Reich didn't surrender until Allied tanks were in the streets of Berlin. Nor did over 7.5 million tons of ordnance compel North Vietnam to cease its war against South Vietnam.Iranian missiles have not deterred Israel from pursuing its campaigns in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/israel-attack-lebanon-hezbollah-past-invasion-2024-10">Lebanon</a> and Gaza, nor are they likely to. Iran's 3,000 missiles sound quite impressive. But even if they were all launched at Israel simultaneously, some would malfunction on launch, some would be intercepted, and still others — how many can only be guessed at — would miss their target. In the end, the amount of high-explosive landing on Israeli soil would be less than a single Allied bomber raid in World War II.The proliferation of ballistic missiles is a danger. Given accurate guidance systems, they can damage vital targets. Given less accuracy, they can serve as terror weapons against cities. But they cannot win a war alone.Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

Iran's attacks on Israel suggest ballistic missiles are an overhyped threat 

<ul class="summary-list"><li>North Korea destroyed parts of roads and rail lines connecting it with South Korea.</li><li>It comes after North Korea last week accused South Korea of flying drones over its capital.</li></ul>North Korea blew up parts of roads and rail lines connecting it with South Korea on Tuesday in a move that has escalated tensions in the region.In response, South Korea fired warning shots within its own border, according to South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff. It described North Korea's actions as "extremely abnormal."The destruction, however, is mainly symbolic and is unlikely to lead to war, experts told Business Insider."Most of the inter-Korean roads have been closed off since 1953 anyway," said Jim Hoare, a historian and former British diplomat in North Korea."It is, in fact, another symbolic gesture, but in reality, it makes no difference to what the situation has been on the ground."Tensions between <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/south-north-korea-balloons-bts-choco-pie-activists-loudspeakers-2024-6">the Koreas</a> have been simmering since before the Korean War divided them in 1953.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/studying-abroad-in-north-korea-isolating-surreal-friendships-made-2024-7">North Korea's</a> approach used to lean toward reunifying the two countries, but that has changed in recent months.In 2020, North Korea<a target="_blank" href="https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-53060620"> blew up</a> the Inter-Korean Liaison Office in Kaesong, which used to serve as a de-facto South Korean embassy.In December last year, state media reported that North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-Un, announced he would no longer be seeking reunification and that South Korea was now a hostile state."I believe that it is a mistake that we should no longer make to consider the people who declare us as the 'main enemy'... as a counterpart for reconciliation and unification," he said<a target="_blank" href="https://www.france24.com/en/asia-pacific/20231231-north-korea-s-kim-jong-un-orders-military-to-prepare-for-possible-war"> in a statement.</a>Trade between the two Koreas has now fallen to <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" class="media-ui-Link_link-tVkXhPLPofs-" href="https://www.unikorea.go.kr/eng_unikorea/relations/statistics/exchanges/">almost zero</a> from $2.7 billion in 2015, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-08/north-korea-strikes-down-laws-on-economic-cooperation-with-south">Bloomberg</a>.The detonations come after North Korea last week accused South Korea of flying drones over its capital Pyongyang. South Korea has neither confirmed nor denied the accusation.Kim's sister, Kim Yo Jong, released a stern warning on Monday: "The moment that a drone of [South Korea] is discovered in the sky over our capital city once again it will certainly lead to a horrible disaster," she said.Edward Howell, Korea Foundation Fellow at Chatham House, told BI that despite the aggressive tone of the communications, the growing escalations are "all part of North Korea's strategy that we see at the moment, which is one of brinkmanship."Howell added that historically, North Korea has stepped up provocations during US election years. "It wants to test and see whether the US will give it any concessions," he said.A full-scale war on the Korean Peninsula could cost the global economy $4 trillion in the first year, or 3.9% of GDP, according to analysis by <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2024-korea-war-threatens-trillions-for-global-economy/">Bloomberg Economics. </a>But while the situation seems tense, it is unlikely to ramp up to full-scale war. "Indeed, if I were planning an invasion, I would not blow up the routes into the south," said Hoare.For North Korea, "the destruction of the roads serves as a dramatic spectacle, both for a foreign audience and for a domestic audience, of their hostility and displeasure with the south," Peter Ward, a research fellow at the Sejong Institute think-tank in Seoul, told the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ft.com/content/849ba554-b260-4518-b637-402a08587406">Financial Times.</a>"But it allows them to do so in such a way that grabs attention without inviting a military response," he added."Because in the end all they are doing is destroying their own roads, and if they want to rebuild them one day, the one thing they have plenty of is concrete."

North Korea is blowing stuff up and making threats, but it's unlikely to go further

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Germany and the UK signed a landmark defense pact this week.</li><li>As part of the agreement, German submarine-hunting aircraft will be based in the UK.</li></ul>German submarine-hunting aircraft will be based in the UK and will fly patrols over the North Atlantic amid a rise in Russian underwater military activity in the area.Germany and the UK signed a landmark defense pact Wednesday that aims to increase cooperation and development between the two NATO allies on a range of issues, including the production of long-range weapons, drones, and other military endeavors.As part of the new agreement, known as the Trinity House Agreement, German P-8 Poseidon aircraft will periodically operate out of Lossiemouth, a Royal Air Force base in Scotland, to conduct patrols over the North Atlantic, according to a UK government <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/landmark-uk-germany-defence-agreement-to-strengthen-our-security-and-prosperity">statement</a>.The P-8, the successor to the P-3 Orion, is a multi-mission maritime patrol aircraft manufactured by Boeing and developed for the US Navy. The plane can be armed with torpedoes and anti-ship missiles and carry out anti-submarine warfare and maritime patrol and reconnaissance missions.<div type="image" title="A US Navy P-8 over the Mediterranean Sea in July." height="4652" width="6978" msid="114555702" hostid="261" sizebytes="256646"></div>Several countries, including a number of NATO allies, operate the P-8, a derivative of the civilian 737. The UK has nine Poseidon aircraft that are based in Lossiemouth, and Germany has eight on order with deliveries expected between 2024 and 2028. It's unclear when, exactly, the German planes will start flying out of Scotland.The Trinity pact comes amid a rise in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-cruise-missiles-submarines-out-in-force-ukraine-navy-2024-7">Russian submarine</a> and underwater activity, a development that has long concerned NATO. Adm. Tony Radakin, the head of the UK's military, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.thetimes.com/world/us-world/article/admiral-sir-tony-radakin-warns-of-russian-threat-at-sea-kx7vf5sxv?region=global">told a British newspaper</a> last year that there has been "a phenomenal increase" in such activity over the last two decades.And the top US general in Europe, Gen. Christopher Cavoli, said last year that "the Russians have been more active than we've seen them in years" in the Atlantic.Earlier this year, one of Russia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-submarine-in-cuba-us-nato-worried-about-for-years-2024-6">most advanced subs</a>, the nuclear-powered Yasen-class submarine Kazan, showed up off the coast of Cuba before taking part in military exercises in the area. US and NATO officials have expressed concern over this vessel and similar ones in the class.<div type="image" title="A submarine on the water's surface with a city skyline in the background." height="1910" width="2960" msid="114555703" hostid="261" sizebytes="259934"></div>The UK government said the Trinity pact will also see cooperation to protect critical underwater infrastructure, such as cables in the North Sea, including "exploring new offboard undersea surveillance capabilities to improve detection of adversary activity."NATO has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-secret-sub-unit-menaces-undersea-cables-2024-9">detected an uptick</a> in threats to undersea infrastructure, including gas pipelines and internet cables, since the Ukraine war started. The military alliance <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/seabed-warfare-protecting-the-uks-undersea-infrastructure/">has warned</a> that Russia is developing capabilities that could be used for underwater combat.The UK government said the Trinity pact "will strengthen national security and economic growth in the face of growing Russian aggression and increasing threats.""We must not take security in Europe for granted," German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius said of the new Trinity pact, noting that, as Russia continues to wage war against Ukraine, Moscow is also boosting its weapons production and has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-fighting-nato-not-with-tanks-aircraft-former-top-general-2024-7">repeatedly launched hybrid attacks</a> across Eastern Europe.

NATO allies are teaming up for P-8 patrols to counter the growing Russian submarine threat in the North Atlantic

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Ukraine needs its F-16s, but it should get Gripen jets to help fight Russia long-term, experts said.</li><li>They're rugged, flexible, and designed with a Russia fight in mind.</li></ul>Ukraine has US-made F-16s and a promise of French Mirages, capable weapons that it needs now, but Sweden's Gripen, a jet made for the Russian threat, is an ideal choice for the country's future fighter fleet."Gripens are a way better fit for Ukraine" than F-16s," said Michael Bohnert, an air warfare expert at the RAND Corporation. "The Gripen is a little more purpose-built" for Ukraine's needs.<h2 id="f816fc70-9055-4f96-bc64-62d9a1771018">A more flexible jet</h2>The JAS 39 Gripen, made by Swedish aerospace and defense company Saab AB, was designed to operate from civilian roads in the event that runways and airbases are destroyed. This is something the F-16 can do, too, and has done, but the Gripen is a more rugged aircraft better suited for that.The jet is one Ukraine <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-asking-for-f16s-but-also-looking-at-swedish-gripens-2023-7">wants</a> but has been unable to acquire.They're made to operate from improvised runways "because Sweden, being under that Russian threat, designed the Gripens to fight this way that F-16s weren't," Bohnert said. F-16s have special requirements, like long and smooth runways and protective hangars.<div type="image" title="A Ukrainian F-16 flying against grey skies." height="2000" width="3000" msid="114587737" hostid="261" sizebytes="233468"></div>Russia has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-targets-ukraine-airfields-before-f16s-fear-impact-war-experts-2024-7">targeting Ukrainian air bases</a> suitable for F-16s. "If you're right under somebody's shadow, you need to be able to operate from roads," Bohnert said.The emerging missile threat has led nations farther away to look into the practice as well. The US and its partners in Europe have been training with increasing regularity for dispersed air operations using highways as improvised runways for combat aircraft like the F-35, Eurofighter, A-10, and others.The Gripen, designed at the end of the Cold War and built to defeat Russia's highly maneuverable Sukhoi fighter aircraft, is considered among the better fourth-generation fighters and is regarded as an excellent jet for these kinds of operations.Retired US Army Maj. Gen. Gordon "Skip" Davis, who served as NATO's deputy assistant secretary-general for its Defense Investment Division, told BI that Swedens' Gripens have "a number of advantages" that benefit Ukraine and would likely work well with the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-targeting-cant-catch-ukraine-air-force-top-us-general-2023-9">dispersal tactics Ukraine has been employing since the start of the war</a> to keep Russians from destroying its smaller air force.The jet's flexibility makes it "much better for a country that's bordering an aggressor," Bohnert said. "You'll probably get more effectiveness out of an F-16 against Russia out of Germany, whereas the Gripen will get more capability out of Ukraine or some other bordering country."The Gripen is also a lighter maintenance lift than some other aircraft, the F-16 included.<div type="image" title="An F-16 fighter jet flying across gray skies." height="1933" width="3000" msid="114587741" hostid="261" sizebytes="244994"></div>Experts at the UK-based Royal United Services Institute <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://static.rusi.org/SR-Russian-Air-War-Ukraine-web-final.pdf">wrote</a> in 2022 that of available Western aircraft that could be supplied, the Gripen "offers by far the most suitable candidate in terms of operational requirements. It was designed from the outset for ease of maintenance, and can be refuelled, re-armed and given basic maintenance by teams of just six ground crew using two vehicles on small airbases or highways in cold weather.""Moreover," they added, "only one of each crew needs to be a highly trained maintainer; the rest can be conscripts or even troops."The greater demands for F-16 operations mean that even if the Ukrainians were promised far more of the jets, there is no guarantee it would be able to put all of them in the air.<h2 id="f20357c0-b4b8-4954-9ab4-31f55296ea4b">Designed against Russia</h2>Sweden has long seen Russia as a threat, and the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 majorly elevated those concerns, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-nato-alliance-new-ways-strike-russia-targets-kaliningrad-stpetersburg-2024-3">prompting Sweden to join NATO</a>. The Gripen is built for that threat and delivers certain capabilities beyond the F-16 or Mirage.<div type="image" title="Three Swedish Saab JAS-39 Gripen fighter jets escort a B-52H Stratofortress in a 2022 flight." height="1333" width="2000" msid="114587735" hostid="261" sizebytes="53510"></div>The then-commander of Sweden's air force, Mats Helgesson, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-built-a-russian-fighter-jet-killer-and-stealth-is-irrelevant-2019-2">said</a> in 2019 that the Gripen was "designed to kill Sukhois."Gordon noted the Gripen's electronic warfare capabilities, characterizing it as a "big advantage," as well as the jet's small radar signature and its maneuverability in a dogfight. The Gripen can also be equipped with very long-range air-to-air missiles.<h2 id="7a3a66ea-485d-453b-91fc-a618f41d3d9c">A potential transition</h2>Sweden appears to be <a target="_blank" href="https://kyivindependent.com/sweden-takes-step-toward-transferring-gripen-fighter-jets-but-ukraine-still-eyes-more-f-16s/#:~:text=9%20announced%20the%20inclusion%20of,million%2C%20according%20to%20the%20ministry.">inching closer </a>to giving Ukraine the jets but still seems a long way off from committing any.<div type="image" title="Saab JAS 39C Gripen Sweden Air Force" height="1067" width="1600" msid="114587738" hostid="261" sizebytes="47290"></div>Gordon said the Gripens would be useful for Ukraine now, but "unless Sweden makes a quick decision to start training pilots and offering the aircraft, then they're not going to make a difference the next year and for 2025. So they may more be a good idea for cost and maintenance and employment for a post-conflict."The Gripen could be a good alternative if US support suddenly collapsed, but for the time being, Ukraine has its hands full building an F-16 fleet and the approaching task of integrating Mirages into its air force, which Sweden has noted.But Ukraine's long-term defense needs will almost certainly center on Russia, which will be a threat to Ukraine no matter how this war ends. That makes the Swedish Gripen a worthwhile consideration for its long-term fighter needs.<div type="image" title="Swedish Saab JAS 39 Gripen" height="1095" width="2000" msid="114587744" hostid="261" sizebytes="59376"></div><h2 id="aa367036-bb90-4206-9e70-24b66258ea1e">Ukraine's future air force</h2>Air warfare experts have described Ukraine's acquisition of its first F-16s as the beginning of building Ukraine's long-term air force.US officials have also described it as a long-term project, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin saying last year that the US would lead a coalition focused on increasing the Ukrainian air force's ability to defend itself against Russia in the long run.The Gripen is good, but the F-16 is probably the best option right now.<div type="image" title="Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyi in front of the first F-16 fighter jets received by Ukraine on August 4, 2024." height="3333" width="5000" msid="114587742" hostid="261" sizebytes="445220"></div>As the most popular Western fighter, there are many more jets and spare parts allies could choose to give Ukraine, Tim Robinson, a military aviation specialist at the UK's Royal Aeronautical Society, told BI.There are also far fewer countries that operate Gripens, and not all of them support Ukraine. The Gripen has also never seen combat, so the jet's celebrated capabilities are, for now, theoretical.The F-16 is, on the other hand, a combat-proven aircraft and still a key element of American and allied airpower, even amid the transition to fifth-generation fighters."It's just that Gripens were designed for this fight much better," Bohnert said. But right now, Ukraine just needs jets, making F-16s a solid choice for the time being.

Ukraine needs F-16s now, but this rugged jet made for the Russia threat could be the better choice for its future fighter fleet

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The UK says a new anti-missile laser for its aircraft defeated 100% of its targets in a live test.</li><li>Officials said it faced off against multiple heat-seeking missiles launched simultaneously.</li></ul>The UK Defense Ministry said on Sunday that it successfully tested a new air-defense system that tracks missiles midflight and jams them with a precision laser.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-air-defence-laser-engages-multiple-missiles-at-once">In a statement</a>, officials said the laser downed 100% of its targets at the Vidsel Test Range in Sweden while facing "a range of infrared heat-seeking missiles being fired simultaneously.""100% of threats were quickly defeated using a laser with pinpoint accuracy," the statement said.A joint venture with aerospace firms Leonardo and Thales, it's designed for Royal Air Force planes such as the Shadow R2 surveillance craft and the A400M Atlas transport.The statement did not say if the laser was tested while mounted on a flying aircraft.When contacted by Business Insider, a ministry spokesperson declined to comment on the system's range and the number of missiles used in the test, citing security concerns. Officials said the system combines Thales' threat warning software, Elix-IR, which uses algorithms to detect missiles in the air, with an infrared laser built by Leonardo, called Mysis."Threats are defeated faster than the time it takes to read this sentence," a statement by Defense Secretary John Healey read.His ministry added that senior officials from several NATO states observed the live-fire trial, but did not say which countries they were from.The UK is likely to offer this new technology to its allies, with the ministry statement saying it would be available to "export customers."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/new-national-enterprise-approach-for-air-platform-protection">In a 2022 statement</a> about its defense agreement with Leonardo and Thales — called Team Pellonia — the ministry said its project would be compliant with the NATO Defensive Aids System standard, allowing it to sell the technology to approved nations.The UK was the world's seventh-largest arms exporter with a 3.7% market share from 2019 to 2023, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.sipri.org/sites/default/files/2024-03/fs_2403_at_2023.pdf">the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.</a>This isn't the first laser weapon the UK has touted in recent years, as Western militaries look to complement expensive conventional air defense with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-wants-rechargeable-magazines-lasers-to-take-out-drones-2024-2">cheaper options for bringing down missiles and drones.</a>In March, it published footage of its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/britain-shows-off-dragonfire-laser-weapon-take-out-drones-cheap-2024-3">DragonFire laser</a> taking down several targets in Scotland, saying the trialed weapon can strike a coin from a kilometer away and costs $13 per shot.Four months later, the UK debuted another weapon, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.gov.uk/government/news/first-trial-on-british-army-vehicle-for-high-powered-laser-weapon">a ground vehicle-mounted laser</a> that officials said can fire at $0.12 per shot, in publicly released images.October 21, 2024: This story was updated to reflect a response from the UK Defense Ministry.

A new anti-missile laser downed 100% of its targets while fighting multiple threats at once, UK defense officials say

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russian President Vladimir Putin said he's considering changing the country's nuclear weapons rules.</li><li>It would mean an attack from a state backed by a nuclear power would be seen as a "joint attack."</li></ul>Russian President Vladimir Putin is stepping up his nuclear threats against the West, as the US and its allies waver over allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons they've supplied on targets in Russia.Putin, in a <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/75182/photos">National Security Council meeting Wednesday</a>, said that Russia was considering updating its nuclear doctrine to state that an attack on Russia by a country allied with a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack.The remarks were a thinly veiled reference to Ukraine, which is seeking permission to use long-range missiles supplied by the likes of the US, France, and the UK to strike targets deep inside Russia."We see the modern military and political situation is dynamically changing and we must take this into consideration," he said.Putin said this included the "emergence of new sources of military threats and risks for Russia and our allies."Two weeks ago, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/putins-threatening-the-west-with-war-its-not-the-first-time-2024-9">US President Joe Biden discussed</a> lifting restrictions on Ukraine's use of long-range weapons at a White House meeting.But despite US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken indicating after the meeting that the restrictions would be lifted, reports say discussions <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kmuw.org/2024-09-22/weapons-systems-continue-to-be-a-sticking-point-between-the-u-s-and-ukraine">are still ongoing</a> and no final decision has been made.Ukraine has long argued that it needs to use the weapons to hit military sites and airfields in Russia crucial to its invasion force in Ukraine, but the US has hesitated, fearing it could cross Russia's "red lines" and provoke a nuclear attack.Analysts at the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-september-25-2024">Institute for the Study of War, a US think tank</a>, said that Putin's latest remarks are likely hollow threats designed to intimidate the West.The Russian president, they said, is seeking to "breathe new life into the Kremlin's tired nuclear saber-rattling information operation and generate a new wave of panic among Western policymakers during a particularly critical moment in Western policy discussions about Ukraine's ability to use Western-provided weapons."Putin has in the past suggested a series of red lines in response to Western support for Ukraine, including designating seized territory <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.nato.int/docu/review/articles/2022/11/29/russias-nuclear-coercion-in-ukraine/index.html">as part of Russia, which would be</a> defended by nuclear weapons.Some analysts have urged caution, with George Beebe, a former CIA Russia analysis chief, and Suzanne Loftus, a research fellow at the Quincy Institute's Eurasia program, warning in an article for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2023/06/12/testing-russias-red-lines-could-become-a-fatal-experiment/">Responsible Statecraft last year</a> that the West might not know it's crossed Russia's red lines until it was "too late."<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/c5ce76df-9b1b-4dfc-a619-07da1d40cbd3">According to reports</a>, Putin considered using tactical nuclear weapons against Ukraine after it pushed back Russian forces early in the full-scale invasion in 2022, but was deterred by China's President Xi Jinping.

Putin is intensifying nuclear threats as the West wavers over allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The Secretary of the US Air Force said war with China in the Pacific was not "imminent or inevitable."</li><li>Even so, Frank Kendall said the likelihood of one is growing and will continue to grow.</li></ul>A war between the US and China in the Pacific is not "imminent or inevitable," but the threat of one is growing, according to a top US military official.Frank Kendall, the US Air Force Secretary, made the assessment during a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3907669/threat-from-china-increasing-air-force-official-says/">keynote address</a> at an Air &amp; Space Forces Association convention on Monday."I am not saying war in the Pacific is imminent or inevitable. It is not," Kendall said. "But I am saying that the likelihood is increasing and will continue to do so."Kendall cited China's growing capabilities, and pointed to it staging more extensive and advanced military drills that he said were aimed at an invasion and blockade of Taiwan.He also mentioned China's heavy investments in military organizations, capabilities, and operational concepts, which he said are specially aimed at thwarting the US and its allies' capacity to project power in the Western Pacific."I've been closely watching the evolution of [China's] military for 15 years. China is not a future threat; China is a threat today," he said.One of the main flashpoints between the US and China could be over Taiwan, although there's also growing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-taking-over-south-sea-us-not-stopping-experts-philippines-2024-9">tension between China and the Philipines</a>, another US ally.According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1833689816934052077">daily</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1834396587218338127">updates</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1834758971132964868">shared</a> by Taiwan's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1835483741210251437">defense</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1835846132162834678">ministry</a>, China's aircraft, vessels, and ships now operate around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait and causing Taiwan to scramble its planes.But experts from the American Enterprise Institute and the Institute for the Study of War <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-missing-how-china-could-seize-taiwan-without-invading-experts-2024-5">said</a> in May that an aggressive Chinese coercion campaign — short of war but still threatening — was more likely than a full-scale invasion, and that the US needed to prepare for such an eventuality.For decades, the US has adopted "<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">strategic ambiguity</a>" toward Taiwan, positioning itself as the island's most steadfast ally, while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked.But the FT <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seal-team-six-preparing-china-invasion-of-taiwan-report-2024-9">reported</a> last week that preparations for a possible China attack had intensified since Phil Davidson, then the US Indo-Pacific commander, said in 2021 that China may invade Taiwan by 2027.It also reported that Navy SEAL Team 6, an elite military special-missions unit, has spent more than a year planning and training at its Dam Neck base in Virginia Beach for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.In January, US officials also told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/china/logistics-war-how-washington-is-preparing-chinese-invasion-taiwan-2024-01-31/">Reuters</a> the US is trying to spread its military logistics hubs across the Pacific, including warehouses in Australia.Kendall said that over the past 15 years, he's seen growing concern and alarm from other countries in the Indo-Pacific region over China's capabilities and intentions.He also said that "China continues to expand its nuclear forces and its ability to operate in cyberspace," and that "we can expect all these trends to continue.""To prevent conflict, we must be ready," he said.

US Air Force says war with China in the Pacific is not 'imminent or inevitable' but the threat is growing

<ul class="summary-list"><li>New satellite imagery shows how Russia has continued to add defenses to protect the Kerch Bridge.</li><li>Russia has placed additional barriers nearby to protect it from Ukraine's naval drones.</li></ul>New satellite imagery shows how Russia has stepped up its efforts to protect a key bridge from Ukrainian attacks, including its exploding naval drones.The images, captured last weekend by Maxar Technologies and obtained by Business Insider, reveal a growing build-up of defenses around the Kerch Bridge, which connects Russia with the occupied Crimean peninsula.The 12-mile-long bridge was once an important supply route for the Russian military, but it is primarily a symbol of Russia's grip on Crimea. It has fallen victim to several <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/video-russia-fail-stop-ukrainian-drone-boat-hit-key-bridge-2023-8">high-profile Ukrainian attacks</a>, including a naval drone strike.Russia <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-protecting-crimean-bridge-with-barges-2024-6">started placing barges</a> on the southern side of the bridge in early May to defend the structure and the shipping channel from future Ukrainian naval drone attacks. Previously installed barriers had been damaged by storms, according to Western intelligence.By June, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-ships-not-enough-protect-kerch-bridge-ukraine-naval-drones-2024-6">the protective measures had increased</a> to include additional barges and floating boom defenses running parallel to the bridge. But the new images captured on Saturday reveal a significant increase in the number of barges protecting the bridge.<div type="image" title="Overview of barriers near the Kerch Bridge on September 28." height="5526" width="6500" msid="113859098" hostid="261" sizebytes="3782210"></div>Ukraine has used its fleet of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-made-naval-drones-deadlier-larger-warheads-general-says-2024-3">domestically produced naval drones</a> to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-black-sea-fleet-running-away-crimea-ukraine-2024-6">wreak havoc on Russian warships</a> and other Black Sea Fleet assets. The threat has prompted Moscow to add defenses like the ones at the Kerch Bridge <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/satellite-images-show-russia-protect-black-sea-fleet-warships-ukraine-2024-4">to the key ports</a> of Sevastopol and Novorossiysk.Brady Africk, an open-source-intelligence analyst and associate at the American Enterprise Institute think tank, first pointed out the added barrier defenses in a Sunday <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/bradyafr/status/1840399885717078302">post on X</a> and noted the drastic change between early May and late September.The new barriers are not the only <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-smoke-screens-sunken-ships-defend-bridge-ukraine-drone-boats-2023-9">protective measures</a> Russia has taken to shield the bridge. Satellite images captured on Saturday show two Pantsir air-defense systems near the structure.Maxar said the towers for these systems were being built between August 18 and 23. Their construction suggests Russia is not just concerned about maritime threats to the bridge from below. It also wants to protect the structure from above.<div type="image" title="A Pantsir air-defense system on a tower near the Kerch Bridge on September 28." height="5475" width="7134" msid="113859100" hostid="261" sizebytes="812494"></div><div type="image" title="A second Pantsir air-defense system on a tower near the Kerch Bridge on September 28." height="1436" width="1840" msid="113859099" hostid="261" sizebytes="199756"></div>The bridge was previously hit by a truck bomb. Russia has claimed Ukraine <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kyivindependent.com/russia-claims-ukraine-used-atacms-to-attack-crimean-bridge/">targeted the bridge</a> with US-provided ballistic missiles but said the attack was unsuccessful. Kyiv has also armed its naval drones with <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-drone-boats-heat-seeking-missiles-scare-russian-aircraft-commander-2024-6">missiles and rockets</a>, extending the threat beyond the water's surface, creating further challenges.Moscow began construction on the Kerch Bridge after it illegally annexed Crimea in 2014. The bridge is a prized accomplishment of Russian President Vladimir Putin and is a symbol of the Kremlin's desire to maintain its occupation of Crimea forever.Ukraine previously <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-commander-vows-destroy-key-russia-crimea-bridge-this-year-2024-2">vowed to destroy the bridge</a> because of its role as a key supply and logistics route to support Russian military activities in Crimea after the 2022 invasion, and Kyiv has <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ukraine-zelenskyy-says-kerch-bridge-to-crimea-must-be-neutralized-2023-7">shown its desire</a> through its multiple attacks on the site.However, taking out the bridge now would be less militarily effective and more symbolic because Russia relies on it less frequently to support its troops in Crimea than it did earlier in the war.A Ukrainian Navy spokesperson said in June that most of the cargo is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://kyivindependent.com/destruction-of-kerch-bridge-wont-be-as-effective-anymore-military-says/">transported by ferry</a>. Kyiv has also targeted these operations.

Satellite images capture Russia's scramble to shield a key bridge from Ukraine's exploding naval drones and other threats

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The US is set to send Taiwan $567 million in military aid, US officials told Defense News.</li><li>They said it would be the largest aid package ever sent to Taiwan.</li></ul>The US is gearing up to send Taiwan its largest-ever security package, multiple congressional aides and a US official told <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.defensenews.com/pentagon/2024/09/20/us-close-to-sending-567-million-in-immediate-security-aid-to-taiwan/">Defense News</a>.The package, which the Pentagon has already approved, will pay for air defenses, multi-domain awareness, anti-armor weaponry, training, military stockpiles, and drones, one official said.Two of the sources told the outlet that President Joe Biden is expected to sign the $567 million package before the fiscal year expires later this month.It would nearly double the amount the US sent in a previous $345 million package last year.According to the report, the Biden administration will use its fastest available approach to delivering the aid: shipping its own stockpiles.Concerns about a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan have grown since Phil Davidson, then the US Indo-Pacific commander, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/21-10_03-09-2021.pdf">said</a> in 2021 that China may invade Taiwan by 2027.Since then, military experts and former defense officials have made similar assessments.Most say signs — like China's rapid modernization of its armed forces over the past two decades and drills around Taiwan — <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/red-flags-tell-us-when-chinas-ready-to-invade-taiwan-2024-4">point</a> to Chinese military action to seize the island by force, possibly in just a few years.<h2 id="dfae143e-8a71-469c-ad67-f298e6ef6921">China's growing military activity</h2>Speaking to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.ft.com/content/3402d159-418c-4485-abb4-7e2155288d61">reporters last week</a>, Taiwan's defense minister said it will become harder to spot early signs of a Chinese attack due to its growing military activity around the country."The scale of [China's military] activity is getting larger and larger, and so it is harder to discern when they might be shifting from training to a large exercise, and from an exercise to war," Wellington Koo said, per the Financial Times.He added that Taiwan's response time to an emergency "cannot be as long as we would have imagined in the past."According to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1838020456269373703">daily</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1837658068718666122">updates</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1837295688125927634">shared</a> by Taiwan's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1836933297827631141">defense</a> <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://x.com/MoNDefense/status/1836571742858588378">ministry</a>, China's aircraft, vessels, and ships now operate around Taiwan almost daily, sometimes crossing the median line in the Taiwan Strait and causing Taiwan to scramble its planes.<h2 id="d8c06927-9c15-451f-a2ec-7547d6f5e252">Deterring China</h2>For decades, the US has adopted "<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">strategic ambiguity</a>" toward Taiwan, positioning itself as the island's most steadfast ally, while declining to explicitly say whether it would come to Taiwan's aid if China attacked.However, over the last few years, the mood in Washington, DC, has shifted toward greater hawkishness, Graeme Thompson, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-arming-taiwan-against-china-invasion-but-it-could-backfire-2023-11">told Business Insider</a> last November.President Joe Biden <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://time.com/6984968/joe-biden-transcript-2024-interview/">has</a> <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/21/politics/taiwan-china-biden-town-hall/index.html">repeatedly</a> <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-taiwan-60-minutes-2022-09-18/">suggested</a> the US would <a target="_blank" rel=" nofollow" class="" href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-60-minutes-interview-transcript-2022-09-18/">respond</a> militarily if China attacked Taiwan.According to an August 2024 <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12481">report</a> by the Congressional Research Service, Taiwan is one of the largest purchasers of US defense equipment.Meanwhile, the Financial Times <a target="_blank" rel="" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seal-team-six-preparing-china-invasion-of-taiwan-report-2024-9">reported</a> that SEAL Team 6 — which took out Osama bin Laden in 2011 — has spent more than a year planning and training at its Dam Neck base in Virginia for a possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan.Three retired Navy officers told BI last week that the unit may be preparing Taiwanese forces for <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/navy-seals-training-taiwan-defeat-china-invasion-2024-9">reconnaissance operations</a> and missions to repel a Chinese invasion.

The US is gearing up to send Taiwan its largest-ever security package, officials say, as China threat grows

<ul class="summary-list"><li>A new Japanese government report may be readying its public for the possibility of war.</li><li>It expands on the threats it faces from Russia, China and North Korea.</li></ul>Japan's newest strategic review names China, North Korea and Russia as threats to Japanese security.That's hardly a revelation. But it is a change from previous years when the Japanese government was more circumspect about publicly identifying potential enemies. In fact, the theme of the 2024 <a target="_blank" href="https://www.mod.go.jp/en/publ/w_paper/index.html">"Defense of Japan"</a> report may be to prepare the Japanese public for more defense spending and the possibility of war."The biggest change is in the description of the regional security environment," Nicholas Szechenyi, a Japan expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told Business Insider. "Instead of vague references to 'changes to the status quo by force,' the white paper now refers more explicitly to Chinese coercion and the North Korea threat. Clearer explanations of the threats to Japan's national security will prove critical as the government seeks public support for an ambitious defense spending plan."The review is part of a reconsideration of Japan's needs in the face of growing threats from its well-armed neighbors, especially China. Japan reserves its military only for self-defense and has avoided entering any armed conflict since its defeat in World War II.The 2024 paper —of which only a summary has been released — includes more details about the Chinese threat to Japan, including joint Chinese-Russian exercises. China has "conducted joint bomber flights and naval navigations with Russia in the vicinity of Japan," the paper said. "These repeated joint activities are clearly intended for demonstration of force against Japan and are a grave concern from the perspective of the national security of Japan."The Ministry of Defense also challenged the legality of Chinese operations in the South China Sea, which China claims as its own territorial waters despite an international court judgment to the contrary. "China has intensified its activities in the South China Sea based on assertions, which are conflicting with existing orders of the seas, and promoting the establishment of military bases," the official paper said. "Such actions to further promote unilateral change of the status quo by force and turning it into a fait accompli are serious concerns to Japan."The paper also highlighted North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile capabilities, including ICBMs, nuclear-armed cruise missiles, and hypersonic weapons. "North Korea is focusing on qualitatively improving its nuclear and missile capabilities, such as diversifying its equipment systems and acquiring intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) means that complement its nuclear and missile operational capabilities," the paper said.The 2024 paper reiterated the Japanese government's commitment to the 2022 Defense Buildup Plan, a five-year effort that includes development of stand-off anti-ship missiles to repel a Chinese amphibious assault on the disputed islands and mainland Japan. The 43 trillion yen (US$287 billion) plan also calls for development of hypersonic missiles, as well as drones such as robotic amphibious landing vehicles.Besides external threats and new equipment, the paper highlighted a critical need for the Japan Self-Defense Forces: more people. While militaries in many developed nations are struggling to recruit personnel, this is particularly acute in Japan, where <a target="_blank" href="https://www.cnn.com/2023/09/18/asia/japan-elderly-population-workforce-intl-hnk/index.html">sharply declining birth rates</a> and barriers to immigration have resulted in a population where almost 30%is over age 65. Nor is military service seen as attractive in an economy with an unemployment rate of just 2.5%.While the paper promised the JSDF would improve pay and working conditions, experts are not convinced this will solve the problem."There are other things that the MOD needs to do, such as expanding the reserve force component which can be done by adjusting the recruitment regime and also better integrating them with the active component," Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi, an adjunct senior fellow at the Honolulu-based Pacific Forum think tank, told Business Insider. "The problem is that such changes will require adjustments in laws and also various arrangements with the civilian sector."Michael Peck is a defense writer whose work has appeared in Forbes, Defense News, Foreign Policy magazine, and other publications. He holds an MA in political science from Rutgers Univ. Follow him on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.twitter.com/@mipeck1">Twitter</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/mipeck/">LinkedIn</a>.

You Searched For "threats" and got 11 results

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Joshua Nelken-Zitser

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North Korea is blowing stuff up and making threats, but it's unlikely to go further

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Ukraine needs F-16s now, but this rugged jet made for the Russia threat could be the better choice for its future fighter fleet

Sinéad Baker

A new anti-missile laser downed 100% of its targets while fighting multiple threats at once, UK defense officials say

Matthew Loh

Putin is intensifying nuclear threats as the West wavers over allowing Ukraine to use long-range weapons

Tom Porter

US Air Force says war with China in the Pacific is not 'imminent or inevitable' but the threat is growing

Thibault Spirlet

Satellite images capture Russia's scramble to shield a key bridge from Ukraine's exploding naval drones and other threats

Jake Epstein

The US is gearing up to send Taiwan its largest-ever security package, officials say, as China threat grows

Thibault Spirlet

Japan's latest strategy review names the growing threats it faces

Michael Peck

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