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<keyword id="19897423" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="COVID-19" source="keywords">COVID-19</keyword>, the unwelcome guest that never quite leaves, may well be in the process of ushering in a fresh global wave, with <keyword id="6356662" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="singapore" source="Orion">Singapore</keyword> potentially on the front lines. The Singapore government is on alert, with its Ministry of Health reporting a significant rise in COVID-19 cases. There was a doubling of infections in the first half of May, with the numbers increasing from 13,700 in the first week of this month to 25,900 in the second (May 5 to 11). Hospitalisations have also spiked, with average daily admissions rising from 181 to around 250 in the same period. To manage hospital bed capacity, public hospitals have been directed to reduce non-urgent elective surgeries and transfer suitable patients to care facilities. Health Minister <keyword id="19895083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ong-Ye-Kung" source="keywords">Ong Ye Kung</keyword> has indicated that Singapore is in the early stages of this wave, which is expected to peak between mid- and end-June. Recognising Singapore's role as a major transport and communications hub, Ong has acknowledged that the city-state is likely to experience COVID-19 waves earlier than other regions. An uptick in infection numbers has also been observed in the neighbouring countries as well, including Philippines. However, no alarming rise in hospitalisation has been reported yet. Regional reports are attributing this surge to new COVID-19 variants, collectively termed FLiRT. This name is based on the technical names for their mutations, one of which includes the letters "F" and "L", and another, the letters "R" and "T". The FLiRT group comprises of variants KP.1, KP.2, KP.3, JN.1.1 and JN.1.7. At present, KP.1 and KP.2 make up over two-thirds of cases in Singapore. While the WHO has classified KP.2 as a variant under monitoring, there is no evidence suggesting these variants are more transmissible or cause more severe illness than existing strains. Nevertheless, Ong has urged high-risk groups, including those aged 60 and above, medically vulnerable individuals, and residents of aged care facilities, to receive an additional COVID-19 vaccine dose if they haven't been vaccinated in the past year. The public has also been advised to consider wearing masks again. Ong emphasised that there are no current plans for social restrictions, as Singapore treats COVID-19 as an <keyword id="21743830" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="endemic-disease" source="keywords">endemic disease</keyword>. He noted that additional measures would only be considered as a last resort. “COVID-19 is just something that we have to live with. Every year, we should expect one or two waves,” he said. Meanwhile, 91 cases of the <keyword id="21640619" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="FLiRT-variants" source="keywords">FLiRT variants</keyword> have been detected in India. However, there have been no reports of severe cases or unique symptoms associated with these variants so far. (With inputs from TOI)

FLiRT-ing with pandemic! With a sharp rise in COVID cases, could Singapore be witnessing the start of a global wave?

<keyword id="19895045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Singapore" source="keywords">Singapore</keyword> is seeing a new <keyword id="21710881" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Covid-19-wave" source="keywords">COVID-19 wave</keyword> as the authorities recorded more than 25,900 cases from May 5 to 11 even as <keyword id="19962428" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Health-Minister" source="keywords">Health Minister</keyword> <keyword id="19895083" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Ong-Ye-Kung" source="keywords">Ong Ye Kung</keyword> on Saturday advised the wearing of masks again. "We are at the beginning part of the wave where it is steadily rising," said Ong. "So, I would say the wave should peak in the next two to four weeks, which means between mid- and end of June," The Straits Times newspaper quoted the minister as saying. The Ministry of Health (MOH) said the estimated number of COVID-19 cases in the week of May 5 to 11 rose to 25,900 cases, compared with 13,700 cases in the previous week. The average daily COVID-19 hospitalisations rose to about 250 from 181 the week before. The average daily intensive care unit (ICU) cases remained low at three cases, compared with two cases in the previous week. The MOH said that to protect hospital bed capacity, public hospitals have been asked to reduce their non-urgent elective surgery cases and move suitable patients to transitional care facilities or back home through Mobile Inpatient Care@Home, an alternative inpatient care delivery model that offers clinically suitable patients the option of being hospitalised in their own homes instead of a hospital ward. Ong urged those who are at greatest risk of severe disease, including individuals aged 60 years and above, medically vulnerable individuals and residents of aged care facilities, to receive an additional dose of the COVID-19 vaccine if they have not done so in the last 12 months. Ong said that if the number of COVID-19 cases doubles one time, Singapore will have 500 patients in its healthcare system, which is what Singapore can handle. However, if the number of cases doubles a second time, there will be 1,000 patients, and "that will be a considerable burden on the hospital system", he pointed out. "One thousand beds is equivalent to one regional hospital," Ong said. "So, I think the healthcare system has to brace ourselves for what is to come." There are no plans for any form of social restrictions or any other mandatory kind of measures for now, as COVID-19 is treated as an endemic disease in Singapore, he said, adding that imposing additional measures would be a last resort. Ong said that with Singapore being a transport and communications hub, it will be one of the cities to get a wave of COVID-19 earlier than others. "So, COVID-19 is just something that we have to live with. Every year, we should expect one or two waves," he said. Globally, the predominant COVID-19 variants are still JN.1 and its sub-lineages, including KP.1 and KP.2. Currently, KP.1 and KP.2 account for over two-thirds of cases in Singapore. As of May 3, the World Health Organisation has classified KP.2 as a variant under monitoring. There are currently no indications, globally or locally, that KP.1 and KP.2 are more transmissible or cause more severe disease than other circulating variants, the MOH said. However, members of the public are urged to stay updated with vaccinations to protect themselves against current and emerging virus strains. The MOH said that to date, about 80 per cent of the local population have completed their initial or additional dose, but have not received a dose within the last year. The ministry added that since COVID-19 vaccination started in 2020 to 2021, the vaccines have consistently been proven to be safe and effective in protecting individuals from severe illness. Billions of doses have been administered globally, and safety monitoring internationally has shown that the vaccine is safe, it said. There have also been no long-term safety concerns with COVID-19 vaccination, and adverse effects from vaccines, including the mRNA vaccines, have all been observed to occur shortly after vaccination, the ministry added. 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Singapore seeing new COVID-19 wave, minister advises wearing of masks

As many as 290 cases of <keyword id="21545939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="KP-2" source="keywords">KP.2</keyword> and 34 cases of <keyword id="21748081" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="KP-1" source="keywords">KP.1</keyword>, both sub-lineages of COVID-19 that are responsible for surge in cases in Singapore, have been found in India, according to official data. However, a source in the Union health ministry told PTI that they are all sub variants of <keyword id="20115417" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="JN1" source="keywords">JN1</keyword> and there is no associated increase in hospitalisation and severe cases. "So there is no reason for concern or panic. The mutations will keep happening at a rapid pace and this is the natural behaviour of viruses like SARS-CoV2," the source said. The source further said that the INSACOG surveillance is sensitive and is able to pick up the emergence of any new variant and samples are also picked from hospitals in a structured manner to detect any change in the severity of disease due to virus. Data compiled by the Indian SARS-CoV-2 Genomics Consortium (INSACOG) showed that 34 cases of KP.1 have been found across seven states and UTs with 23 cases registered from West Bengal. The other states are Goa (1), Gujarat (2), Haryana (1), Maharashtra (4) Rajasthan (2) and Uttarakhand (1). As many as 290 cases of KP.2 have been registered with Maharashtra reporting the highest number at 148, according to the data. The other states and Union territories are Delhi (1), Goa (12), Gujarat (23), Haryana (3), Karnataka (4), Madhya Pradesh (1), Odisha (17), Rajasthan (21), Uttar Pradesh (8), Uttarakhand (16) and West Bengal (36). Singapore is seeing a new COVID-19 wave as the authorities recorded more than 25,900 cases from May 5 to 11 with KP.1 and KP.2 accounting for over two-thirds of cases in Singapore. Globally, the predominant COVID-19 variants are still JN.1 and its sub-lineages, including KP.1 and KP.2. KP.1 and KP.2 belong to a group of COVID-19 variants scientists have nicknamed 'FLiRT', after the technical names of their mutations. The strains in FLiRT are all descendants of the JN.1 variant, an offshoot of the Omicron variant. KP.2 was classified by the World Health Organization as a Variant Under Monitoring.

290 cases of COVID-19 variant KP.2, 34 cases of KP.1 detected in India: INSACOG data

<ul><li><keyword id="1609796" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="omicron" source="Orion">Omicron</keyword> may be a milder variant than Delta but it’s too soon to be sure of that.</li><li>If you haven’t taken the first two shots of the vaccine, the risk of infection and hospitalisation is higher.</li><li>Taking a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine may provide better protection against the virus.</li><li>The third wave of COVID-19 infections may peak in India by February first week.</li><li>Countries like the US and UK have refrained from imposing stringent restrictions on people’s movement despite rising cases.</li></ul>There are at least 5 learnings emerging from different countries facing the third wave of COVID-19 infections where the most number of cases are that of the latest variant, Omicron. First, Omicron is likely to be a milder variant although the World Health Organisation has said that it needs more data to make that point conclusively. Moreover the emergence of a new variant called <keyword id="12876991" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="ihu" source="Orion">IHU</keyword>, discovered by researchers in France, which is likely to be <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/new-covid-19-variant-named-ihu-discovered-in-france-said-to-be-stronger-than-omicron/amp_articleshow/88685048.cms">stronger than Omicron</a>, has increased the need for caution. Second, the WHO has said that the risk of infection and the potential need for hospitalisation is higher for those who have not taken the vaccines. Third, India’s covid cases would peak by February 2 <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;" class="redcator-table-advance"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Rank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Country </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Total Cases </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">New Cases </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Death toll </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">USA </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5,71,31,187 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4,26,051 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+767 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">2 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">UK </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,34,22,815 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,57,758 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+42 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Spain </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">66,67,511 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+93,190 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+42 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">4 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Italy </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">63,96,110 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+68,052 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+140 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">5 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">France </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">1,03,17,819 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+67,461 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+270 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">6 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Turkey </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">95,97,670 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+44,869 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+160 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">7 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Argentine </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">57,39,326 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+44,396 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+41 </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">8 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">India </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">3,49,60,261 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+37,379 </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">+124 </td></tr></tbody><tbody></tbody></table>Source: Worldometers Note: Data, as of January 3, 2022 The forecast, from researchers at IIT Kanpur, is based on the assumption that India will follow the trends of rise in cases seen in other countries. The research also used the rate of increase in cases from the first and second waves in India. Fourth, a booster dose may be needed New studies conducted in the United Kingdom have<a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/omicron-chart-protection-2-3-vaccine-booster-effectiveness-hospitalization-symptomatic-2022-1"> revealed</a> that the third dose of the Covid-19 vaccine may be necessary to boost a person’s resistance to the Omicron variant by as much as 88%. This is a significantly higher degree of protection against the latest variant when compared to the second dose, whose effectiveness begins to reduce after a period of six months. Oxford<a href="https://theprint.in/health/booster-dose-of-covishield-can-increase-antibody-levels-against-omicron-oxford-study-says/786422/"> has said </a>that a third booster shot of AstraZeneca-Oxford Covid-19 vaccine Vaxzevria is necessary to boost the antibody levels. Covershield is the Indian version of Vaxzevria, manufactured by the Serum Institute of India (SII) Fifth, night curfews are useless and other countries have refrained from stringent restrictions on movement of people. Even though the US and UK are recording high covid-19 cases on a daily basis, the countries have decided not to introduce any new restrictions. However, work from home has once again become a norm in these countries. Many states in India, on the other hand, have proactively imposed night curfews, weekend lockdowns and other such restrictions in order to beat the third wave. Whereas, the need may be to enforce the COVID-19 protocols in places, and at times, when crowds do gather for business or otherwise. Even now, large crowds sans social distancing, and people without masks on the street, is not a rare sight in India. However, the policy response has been limited to night curfews. WHO Chief Scientist Soumya Swaminathan, in a TV interview, <a href="https://www.deccanherald.com/national/no-science-behind-night-curfews-in-india-whos-swaminathan-1066559.html">noted</a> that there is no science behind night curfews when it comes to tackling Covid-9. "Entertainment venues are places where these viruses spread the most. It's natural to bring in some restrictions there," he added. 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From new variant IHU to utility of booster doses ⁠— these are five lessons India can learn from the third wave of COVID-19 in other countries

<div type="image" title="Indians are getting fancy, and they don&amp;#39;t mind paying a little extra if it means quality and luxury. Most consumer brands are witnessing an uptick in their premium product segment" msid="115018213" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Indians are getting fancy, and they don&amp;#39;t mind paying a little extra if it means quality and luxury. Most consumer brands are witnessing an uptick in their premium product segment&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> It's time to move over from plain, vanilla budget basics! Indians are no longer looking for “best purchases and value buys under Rs 1,000”—at least not as much as before. <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="india" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s getting fancy, and how! From gold-flaked chocolates to swanky SUVs that look like they’re wheeled straight out of a Bollywood blockbuster, Indian companies are rapidly jazzing up their product lines, even faster than you can say the word "premiumization." But what does this mean for Indian companies and consumers? What is this jazz about premiumization all about? Is it just urban India that’s riding this wave, or has rural India also joined the bandwagon? We decode for you. <h2>What's premium, really?</h2>Imagine you’re eating Pav Bhaji at a roadside thela. Later during the day, you decide to dine out at a fancy, upmarket cafe, only to find Pav Bhaji Fondue on the menu. Same same, but much more expensive—often 5 to 10 times higher—for a little more hygiene and some better ambience! Think of premium products as this fondue. They are a notch up your regular, daily-use products soaps or shampoos, and even cars, all packaged luxuriously, offering just about the right touch of quality. The main differentiator, though, would be the price range. <h2>Driving home premium wellness</h2>A recent report by Nielsen suggests that over 70% of urban Indians are okay with paying a premium for their products. And companies are cashing in on this sentiment like never before. This explains why 58% of new products launched so far this year have been in the premium+ segment, as opposed to just 38% of new launches in regular, traditional trade. Take cars, for instance. Indians are no longer vying for a good old <keyword id="19950117" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="maruti" source="keywords">Maruti</keyword> 800 or <keyword id="20400567" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="alto" source="keywords">Alto</keyword>, traditionally known for their healthy mileage, but are rather happy investing in more swanky features that come along with high-end cars. In October 2024, India’s largest car manufacturer, <keyword id="19909974" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="maruti-suzuki" source="keywords">Maruti Suzuki</keyword>, sold 65,948 units of its compact cars like Swift, WagonR, Dzire, and more. Compared to the year-ago period, which saw sales of 80,662 units, this was an 18% dip. But take a look at their SUV (sport utility vehicle) sales for the same period. Cars like Brezza, Ertiga, and Grand Vitara sold about 70,644 units, a 19% uptick from the sales made in October 2023, i.e. 59,147 units. Simply put, when it comes to cars, Indians are saying the bigger, the better! The same is true for India's second biggest automobile manufacturer, Hyundai. Its SUV lineup made up a staggering 68.2% of the firm's total sales made for October 2024. What's more, SUV demand remained largely consistent across urban and rural markets. <h2>Consumers are inching up</h2>FMCG (fast-moving consumer goods) are also riding the premiumization wave, with Indians prioritizing their health and wellness and not bothered about dishing out a few extra bucks for the same! You’ll find no dearth of words like organic, vegan, gluten-free, and sugar-free, peppered generously over every product you’ll see today, be it soaps, juices, or more. No wonder then, sales from premium segments in 2024 make up around 27% of all FMCG sales and even contribute a massive 42% to the sector’s value growth in India. Nielsen report further adds that luxury brands that position themselves at twice the price of their category’s average are even witnessing stellar growth. In fact, for most FMCG brands like Tata Consumer Products, <keyword id="20002610" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="hindustan-unilever" source="keywords">Hindustan Unilever</keyword> (HUL), Dabur, and Nestle, it is this premium segment that is growing much faster than their regular ones. And it's not just about daily-use products; Indians are also taking their celebrations a step over. Spirits manufacturer <keyword id="20125704" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="radico-khaitan" source="keywords">Radico Khaitan</keyword> highlighted that for the first half of 2024, their prestige &amp; above segment made for 88.4% of its net sales value. In the same period, the regular popular segment accounted for just 9.1% of their net sales. From Hindustan Unilever, which saw its premium products grow 30% over the last quarter, to <keyword id="20521971" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kingfisher" source="keywords">Kingfisher</keyword> beer's parent company, <keyword id="20124009" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="united-breweries" source="keywords">United Breweries</keyword>, whose premium product sales volume jumped by 27% during the quarter as opposed to just a 5% rise in overall volumes, everyone is seemingly taking their lifestyle a notch above. Per the Nielsen report, in 2024, a typical global consumer spends about $13.7k per year. This is set to grow by around 2.4% to $14k as early as next year. Even a report by Goldman Sachs also highlighted a similar trend, noting that India’s affluent class, or those earning over $10,000 (Rs 8,42,694.97), is set to reach 100 million in the next 3 years. And where will this consumer spend? On premium products! <h2>Online shopping shifts from mass to class</h2>Amazon’s Great Indian Shopping Festival, which was live between September 27 and October 29 this year, saw 140 crore customers, more than 85% of whom came from non-metro Indian cities. On the site, there was a 400% spike in sales in premium sales across categories like watches, fragrances, handbags, jewelry, and more. Rival <keyword id="19896939" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="flipkart" source="keywords">Flipkart</keyword> noted a similar trend, recording 1.8x growth in premium beauty and personal care products during the first half of this year. <h2>Dialing in premiumness</h2>The Indian smartphone ecosystem has always been dominated by basic phones, or those entry- and mid-range phones that are priced between Rs 10,000 and Rs 6,000. But that has changed in recent times, with premium smartphones (i.e., those priced over Rs 60,000) registering 20%+ growth in 2024. During the first quarter of this year, sales of mass phones (priced between Rs 10,000 and 20,000) reached 44%, compared to 51% in the year-ago period. But it's all sunny and shiny in the mid-premium (priced between Rs 40,000 and Rs 60,000) and super-premium segments (priced above Rs 60,000). Sales growth has burgeoned by as much as 27% and 86% in these categories, respectively. As India continues its march toward becoming the world's third-largest economy by 2027, the premium party is just getting started. Industry experts predict that premium segments will grow faster than you can say "sustainable organic handcrafted artisanal batch of coffee." So the next time you see someone dropping serious rupees on a fancy bottle of black water that also somehow plays music and tracks their hydration (yes, that's a thing), remember: This is just the trailer. Picture abhi baaki hai, mere dost! Do you have a topic in mind you'd want a simpler explanation for, or insights or experiences to share on personal finance and more? Contact us at businessinsider@timesinternet.in.

Simply Put: From Dal to Dolce—India is loving its luxury life

<ul><li>It highlighted that the states or districts where the cases were low may witness a high number of cases.</li><li>Delhi, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh may ideally see a dip in the number of COVID-19 cases or at least may not be hit as badly as the previous wave.</li><li>The major reason behind this could be strong immunity acquired post-vaccination, which can decrease the number of symptomatic cases in every state.</li></ul>The possibility of a third wave of COVID-19 projected to hit the country any time between September and October could likely be less severe than the previous wave in May-June, which devastated the whole country, according to the Indian Council of Medical Research (<keyword id="6364396" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="icmr" source="Orion">ICMR</keyword>). A study backed by ICMR and Imperial College of London’s CHROMIC model predicts that Delhi, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh may ideally see a dip in the number of COVID-19 cases or at least may not be hit as badly as the previous wave. The major reason behind this could be strong immunity acquired post-vaccination, which can decrease the number of symptomatic cases in every state. Dr. Samiran Panda, ICMR’s epidemiology and communicable disease (ECD) head said, as <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/pune/third-wave-likely-to-be-less-severe-says-icmr/articleshow/85749273.cms">quoted</a> by The Times of India, “Nobody can predict the third wave for the whole country. It will now make sense only if district or state-specific data are used for specific projections. The wave may rear its head only if states remove restrictions prematurely.” He further said that the third wave is likely to arrive only when there is a decline in natural or vaccination boosted immunities, a new and more dangerous variant takes birth like Delta variant or there is a relaxation in the states without following appropriate COVID behaviour or people refraining themselves from getting the vaccine shots. Dr. Panda also highlighted that the states or districts where the cases were low may witness a high number of cases, whereas states/districts that reported a high number of cases may hit with a low number of cases during the third wave. He further strongly urged the states to not allow mass gatherings. “Intensified vaccination and following COVID protocols is the only way ahead”, he added. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/bengal-districts-alipurduar-coochbehar-south-dinajpur-birbhum-purulia-and-jhargram-have-not-reported-any-covid-19-deaths-in-last-one-month/articleshow/85757746.cms">Bengal districts Alipurduar, Coochbehar, South Dinajpur, Birbhum, Purulia and Jhargram have not reported any COVID-19 deaths in last one month</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="https://www.businessinsider.in/tech/mobile/news/iphone-13-could-support-satellite-connectivity-allowing-users-to-make-calls-without-cell-signal/articleshow/85757478.cms">iPhone 13 could support satellite connectivity, allowing users to make calls without cell signal</a>

ICMR predicts third wave of COVID-19 to be less severe than the second wave — Delhi, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh may see a decline

<ul><li>Over 62% or 6 out of 10 Indians believe that the <keyword id="6354477" type="General" weightage="80" keywordseo="narendra-modi" source="Orion">Narendra Modi</keyword> led-government handled the COVID situation quite effectively, as per a new survey.</li><li>Furthermore, 52% of the respondents said that the government also handled the economic recovery during the different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic really well.</li><li>Despite rising unemployment and soaring inflation, the overall popularity of the <keyword id="6354642" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="modi" source="Orion">Modi</keyword> government has been rising since the beginning of the pandemic.</li></ul>Six out of ten Indians believe that the Narendra Modi led-government handled the COVID situation ‘quite effectively’, as per a survey. This is a drastic change from last year’s survey when only 27% believed so. Similarly the percentage of people who rated the pandemic handling as ‘quite poorly’ went down from 32% last year to a mere 9% this year, as per a report by <keyword id="6379818" type="General" weightage="50" keywordseo="localcircles" source="Orion">LocalCircles</keyword>, a community social media platform. The opinion seems to have changed after the vaccination drive which covered around 200 crore people in first, second and booster doses. Nine out of 10 Indians or 88% are satisfied with how the government effectively handled the COVID vaccine development, procurement and distribution. Furthermore, 52% of the respondents said that the government handled the economic recovery quite well during the different waves of the COVID-19 pandemic. Only 25% believed that the government handled it very badly. The government announced various stimulus packages and undertook many measures at different stages which were <a href="https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/one-year-of-covid-lockdown-how-indian-economy-dealt-with-the-virus/articleshow/81666829.cms">reportedly</a> equivalent to ₹29.87 lakh crore or 15% of the GDP. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Unemployment issue is still unaddressed" comment="subhead" text="Unemployment issue is still unaddressed">Unemployment issue is still unaddressed</cmsannotation> Around 29% of citizens in the 2020 survey conducted by the LocalCircles, said that the government addressed the issue of unemployment very well. This percentage saw a marginal drop in 2021 to 27%. The Covid-19 pandemic and subsequent lockdowns since 2020 have had a drastic effect on an already struggling Indian economy, resulting in business disruption and massive job losses. The Center for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) data says that unemployment is looming large as it rose to 7.8% in April from 7.6% in March this year. <cmsannotation type="cmsannotation" annotationid="Overall popularity of Modi government has risen" comment="subhead" text="Overall popularity of Modi government has risen">Overall popularity of Modi government has risen</cmsannotation> Despite rising unemployment and soaring inflation, the popularity of the Modi government has been rising since the beginning of the pandemic. Over 67% of the respondents said the government has either met or exceeded their expectations in the last three years, which is a jump from 51% in 2021. Only 30% say that they are not satisfied with the performance of the Modi government 2.0. BJP won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and formed the government again in 2019 with a thunderous majority. SEE ALSO: <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.in/business/news/lic-reports-a-17-decline-in-the-net-profits-as-compared-to-same-quarter-in-the-last-fiscal/articleshow/91894568.cms">LIC reports a 17% decline in the net profits as compared to same quarter in the last fiscal</a> <a target="_blank" class="c-link c-message_attachment__title_link" href="http://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/these-four-drone-company-stocks-gave-record-breaking-returns-in-one-year/articleshow/91892935.cms">These four drone company stocks gave record breaking returns in one year</a>

Modi government popularity soars after vaccination drives and a mild third wave

<ul><li>The stress among <keyword id="6359766" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-schools" source="Orion">private schools</keyword> is emerging mainly due to poor fee collections, which is not just affecting their cash flows but also impeding their ability to pay loan dues. </li><li>Many of them fear that a third wave of COVID-19 infections, and a subsequent lockdown, if any, may even force them to shut down forever. </li><li>The worst-hit have been pre-primary to middle-level schools, especially those catering to low-income families in rural and semi-urban areas. </li></ul><keyword id="4363300" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-schools-in-india" source="Orion">Private schools in India</keyword> have been struggling to pay their bills and loan dues to banks and other lenders due to poor student turnout amid the pandemic. Many of them fear that a third wave of COVID-19 infections, and a subsequent lockdown, if any, may even force them to shut down forever. The worst-hit have been those that focus on pre-primary to middle-level education, and cater to low-income families in rural and semi-urban areas. Aside from causing a disastrous loss in the form of lack of access to education for children, this could lead to a lot of unpaid loans for banks and other lenders, and loss of livelihood for teachers and support staff. Take Kerala High School, located in Karimnagar in Telangana, for instance. The budget private school that runs classes from Nursery to Xth standard has a strength of 550 students, with most hailing from the neighbouring villages. For the past 18 months, it has been surviving on near-zero cash flows as most of the fees it collected got exhausted in paying salaries to its staff, repaying loan installments, and running online classes. The fee collection, at close to 20% for the last academic year, has been poor mainly because parents either lost their livelihoods during the pandemic or were unwilling to pay school fees due to absence of offline classes. Further, even the attendance for online classes has remained low at just 20-30%, said Rajendra B, chairman and principal at Kerala High School for the past decade, as most students did not have smartphones and internet connections. But if a third Covid wave happens and lockdown curbs are announced again, the 27-year old school may not even survive. “We had to take loans from family and friends to pay our loan installments during the pandemic as debt kept piling up,” said Rajendra. “If a third wave strikes and there is a lockdown again, I may have to sell half of my 1,000 sq. ft school land to repay the dues,” he said. Further, many students studying in private schools have already switched to government schools over the past three years, as per the<a href="https://www.pratham.org/about/"> Annual Status of Education Report 2020</a> that surveyed 16,761 schools across India. The study, conducted by non-government body<a href="https://www.pratham.org/about/"> Pratham</a> in Sep. 2020, said that the reasons for the switch “may include financial distress in households and/or permanent school shutdowns among the private schools.” Pain Points Private schools that operate in pre-primary, primary and middle education categories (classes Nursery to Class VIIth), according to Vivek Iyer, partner and national leader-financial services risk advisory at Grant Thornton Bharat, have been the worst-affected as they have remained shut the longest for close to 17-18 months. The Covid impact, he said, has also been higher on schools catering to children from low-income families and rural areas “Lower the school fees and the category of the school, worse the Covid impact. That way, private schools catering to the most vulnerable segments have been the worst-hit, while their quality of education has also suffered due to poor transition to digital learning models,” he said. Steve Hardgrave, co-founder and chief executive of Varthana, a Bengaluru-based non-bank lender that focuses on loans to affordable private schools that charge fees of up to Rs 3,000 a month, is dreading the expected third wave of the pandemic. “Of the 4,000 schools that we have funded, close to 5% (or 200 schools) have cited issues with continuing their business, but that number is expected to go up to 25% if the third wave strikes. Also, owners that were running schools on leased land and property are finding it difficult to sustain,” he said. “In some cases, schools had to be sold to a third-party to facilitate clearing off their loan dues.” And Hardgrave is not alone. Even as schools have reopened in most parts of the country, classroom attendance remains thin at about 20-30% as parents are afraid to send their children to schools due to lack of vaccination for children below 18 years of age, said V L Ramakrishnan, managing director and chief executive at Shikha Finance, a Tamil Nadu-based lender that focuses primarily on school financing. “Even though schools have reopened, it is an abstract factor, because parents are still reluctant in sending their children, especially those studying between Nursery and class VIIIth, back to schools,” he said. “About 3-5% of school entrepreneurs, or roughly 20 schools, in our portfolio, have expressed that they will not be able to continue their business. If a third wave strikes, that number would go up,” he said. Mounting Debt It is clear that the stress among private schools is emerging mainly due to poor fee collections, which is not just affecting their cash flows but also impeding their ability to pay loan dues. Chirag Jagdish Chandra Pathak, who has been running Mother Care School that offers education for kindergarten to Class XIIth students in Kheda, Gujarat, had taken a ₹6 crore loan in March 2018 to construct a new school building. As the pandemic struck in March last year, the school’s cash flows fell to near-zero in the following five months. Pathak, however, took quick action and gave teachers at his school smartphones and internet connection to impart online education. But a 25% fee cut by the state government and unwillingness of parents to pay school fees as they did not consider online education at par with classroom learning, led Pathak to avail a loan moratorium during the first wave. Later, he also applied for loan restructuring as his school’s cash flow remained deficient by 30-50%. “Despite schools getting reopened again, our loan repayment ability has reduced by at least 30%. The biggest reason for that is uneven cash flow as fee collection has still not stabilized, while our leverage has gone up due to accumulation of interest,” he said. Like Mother Care, <keyword id="9434367" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="many-private-schools" source="Orion">many private schools</keyword> in the country are dealing with mounting debt as most either opted for a loan moratorium or restructuring, in anticipation that their cash flows would improve eventually. But fee collections still remain inadequate, while interest on their loans have either gone up or their loan repayment period extended. “Schools are over-leveraged by at least 2-3 times as their revenue took a beating of anywhere between 20% to even 80%, depending on the fee category of the school. Restructuring was granted to schools as their cash flows were expected to improve, but if a third wave strikes, it will be difficult for many to manage their debt as fee collection would drop again,” said Anuj Pandey, chief risk officer at non-banking financial company U GRO Capital. So far, U Gro Capital that has ₹136 crore in assets under management across 75 schools as of June 30, has restructured close to 12% of its loan portfolio in school financing. Varthana Finance, which has ₹1,000 crore in AUM towards school loans, has also restructured about 15% of its portfolio. Shiksha Finance restructured close to 10% of its ₹185 crore loan book dedicated to 2,200 schools. “Restructuring has not been much of a solace. Most schools continue demanding for extended repayment terms and moratorium, as their situation has barely improved,” said Ramakrishnan. Agreed, Hardgrave. “Of the 70% schools that had applied, only 15% could be offered restructuring. Even among the most vulnerable schools, we could only restructure loans for those that showed clear signs of business continuity,’ he said. The lack of restructuring options for schools, Hardgrave said, was mainly because there was no provision made by the government or the Reserve Bank of India for non-banking financial companies (NBFC) catering to schools. “There were no special liquidity provisions announced for NBFCs catering to schools and no benefits offered for higher restructuring of school loans, which also affected our ability to do so,” he said. To be sure, the RBI had announced a one-time restructuring scheme last year to aid borrowers affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The scheme was to be invoked by December 31, 2020 and implemented within 180 days for corporate borrowers. This year, the scheme was further extended for retail and small business borrowers to September 30. “The government did not just reduce school fees but actively encouraged parents to not pay up, even when we were doing our best to provide online education. On top of that, there was no loan waiver and our debt kept piling up,” said Pathak. A Systemic Issue Not just schools, but specialized non-bank lenders catering to the school segment have also seen their asset quality deteriorate during the pandemic. While Shiksha Finance saw its gross non-performing assets rise from 8.3% of its gross advances, as of June 30, to nearly 17% by August-end, Varthana’s gross NPA rose from a little over 6% by June-end to its highest-ever at almost 8%, as of Aug. 31. But U GRO, which lends to small and medium sized schools, managed to keep its gross NPAs at less than 1%. This, Pandey said, may be because most schools that it lent to were located in urban centres and catered to the middle-class population strata. And a third wave is likely to make matters worse. “While restructuring has helped with immediate cash flow issues, many schools may get pushed to the brink of shutting down if a third wave leads to a fresh set of lockdowns in the country. Even those with better cash flow management may face issues with running their enterprises,” said Pandey. Iyer, however, sees the outcome a bit differently. More than permanent shutdowns, the pandemic would lead to further consolidation among private schools, he said. “Many large school chains backed by deep-pocketed investors are seeing distressed schools in rural and semi-urban areas as good acquisition opportunities for their own expansion.” Be it closure or distressed sale, it is clear that the fate of already stressed private schools hangs in balance. A third wave may also mean the end of the road for many. But Rajendra remains hopeful. In September, Kerala High School reopened following the state government’s directions. The attendance, however, has been low at about 30%, as school buses— the only mode of transportation for over half of its students, are yet to ply. “Once our buses get repaired, we may even touch 70% attendance in the coming weeks. And, if a third wave does not happen, we expect to return to normal fee collections over the next six months,” he said.

EXCLUSIVE: Many private schools in India are on the brink of bankruptcy and fear that a third wave of COVID-19 could be their end

<ul><li>Even as India grapples with the second wave of COVID-19, the government’s advisor has warned about the possibility of a third wave. </li><li>According to him, a third wave is inevitable, going by the higher levels of coronavirus circulating in the country. </li><li>He also said that while vaccines are effective currently, they will need to be updated to deal with new strains.</li></ul>A third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is inevitable given the higher levels of coronavirus circulating in the country, said Indian government’s principal scientific advisor K VijayRaghavan. "A phase three is inevitable, given the higher levels of circulating virus but it is not clear on what time scale this phase three will occur. We should prepare for new waves," K VijayRaghavan said during the press conference. “Scientists of India and all over the world are working to anticipate these kinds of variants and act against them rapidly by early warning and developing modified tools. It's an intense research program, happening in India and abroad,” he <a href="https://twitter.com/ANI/status/1389899026405814273">added</a>. India has already lost over 2.25 lakh people to COVID-19 infections, a lot more in the second wave that has peaked in the last month and a half. The peak of coronavirus infections in the first wave, in September 2020 was 6.3 million. Compared to that, the total infections currently have crossed 20 million. What made the second wave worse was the lack of planning given the poor state of health infrastructure in the country where there is only one hospital bed for 2,000 people, <a href="http://hdr.undp.org/en/2020-report">according</a> to the United Nations Human Development Report 2020. A lot of the deaths have been blamed on the poor preparation from genome sequencing to ensuring adequate supply of hospital beds and oxygen, as well as sourcing of vaccines. The government of India has come under severe criticism for downplaying the threat of the second wave and allowing (even participating) public gatherings and election rallies, including those held by the Prime Minister. The government also said, “Long Covid-19 wave of such ferocity we are seeing was not predicted.” However, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/science/health/news/scientists-warned-the-central-government-about-new-covid-19-variants-and-surge-in-cases-says-scientist-community/articleshow/82381531.cms">reports</a> suggest that the government had ignored warnings from scientists about the second wave, weeks before there was an explosion in new cases. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/private-ambulances-in-gurgaon-are-on-strike-amid-the-surging-cases-of-covid-19/articleshow/82404211.cms">COVID-19 patients are the ones paying the price amid the tussle over rates between the government and ambulance operators in Gurgaon</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/oxygen-crisis-in-delhi-india-supreme-court-stays-contempt-proceeding-against-centre-but-asks-for-solutions/articleshow/82404049.cms">Oxygen crisis in Delhi: India’s top court stays contempt proceeding against Centre, but asks for solutions</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/banks-respond-positively-to-indian-central-banks-covid-stimulus-package-check-out-the-list-of-top-gainers/articleshow/82400850.cms">Banks respond positively to Indian central bank’s COVID stimulus package – check out the list of top gainers</a>

A third wave of COVID-19 will surely come and it may spread faster and wider but don't know when, says advisor to the Indian government

<ul><li>A new study by Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and the National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE) recommends doling out vaccines to everyone above the age of 18 years from April 15.</li><li>Estimates show that it would still take another six to seven to vaccinate the whole country at a rate of 2.5 million doses a day.</li><li>Keeping the second wave of infections in check won’t only reduce the number of active cases but also reduce the impact of a potential third COVID-19 wave.</li></ul>In April, India began to vaccinate everyone above the age of 45 years but that still leaves a large chunk of its population out of the loop. Even if the country was to open up its vaccination programme to everyone above the age of 18 years from April 15, it would still hypothetically take another six to seven months to vaccinate the whole country. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) and the National Institute of Industrial Engineering (NITIE) ran a study with numbers of the best case scenario with 2.5 million vaccine doses being administered daily. Their research shows that India needs to speed up its vaccination drive across the country if it hopes to come out ahead of the second wave of infections. In the last 24 hours, India has recorded a whopping 104,000 new COVID-19 cases, which is higher than ever before. The last biggest surge was on 17 September 2020 when 97,894 infections were recorded in the span of a single day. According to TCS and NITIE, keeping the second wave of infections in check won’t only reduce the number of active cases but also reduce the impact of a potential third COVID-19 wave. The need to cover more of the Indian population The Indian government began the roll out of its massive vaccination drive on January 16, this year. So far, it has managed to distribute around 7.9 million doses of the vaccine for its 1.21 billion strong population. It should also be kept in mind that COVID-19 vaccinations are a double-dose exercise. So many of the patients, especially those above the age of 60 and 45 who were only just initiated into the programme, are yet to receive their second dose. TCS and NITIE recommend that India should prioritise and accelerate the vaccination for the 130 districts, which were identified as ‘red zones’ during the first wave of the pandemic. “Once the vaccination is opened up for everyone above 18 years, around 230 million people — assuming 80% coverage — need to be vaccinated at the rate of 2.5 million per day across these 130 districts,” said the report. Beyond these 130 districts, it will take another six to seven months to vaccinate the remaining population of around 490 million people above the age of 18 years. <div type="image" title="Screenshot (720)_edited" msid="81915197" hostid="261" caption="&amp;lt;p&amp;gt;Hypothetical simulation run by TCS Insights&amp;lt;/p&amp;gt;"></div> The above example shows how the results would vary across a suburban Mumbai district with a population of 10 million and an infected population of 20,000. The red curve shows how the second wave of COVID-19 would play out with no vaccinations. Meanwhile, the best case scenario is depicted by the green curve and assumes 80,000 vaccines being administered per day. The key difference between the two extremes is that the peak of COVID-19 infections as well as the time it takes for the infection to subside is drastically different. <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none; table-layout: fixed; width: 468pt;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Curve </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Peak </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Number of days to reach tail-end of the curve </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Green </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">70,000 cases </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">140 days </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Red </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">20,000 cases </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 1pt;border-right:solid #000000 1pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 1pt;border-top:solid #000000 1pt;vertical-align:top;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">60 days </td></tr></tbody></table> “Clearly, rapid vaccination will not only reduce the peak cases but will significantly arrest the growth of disease,” said the report. For vaccines to be available to all individuals above the age of 18 years and maintain a rate of 2.5 million doses per day, the report believes that India needs to open all delivery channels like round-the-clock vaccination centres, vaccinating through non-Ayushman Bharat hospitals and clinics, and bringing pharmacies into the loop. SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/news/lockdown-trends-are-starting-to-re-emerge-as-india-faces-second-wave-of-covid-19-infections/articleshow/81912266.cms">Lockdown trends are starting to re-emerge as India faces second wave of COVID-19 infections</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/tcs-hcl-tech-infosys-q4-earnings-preview-and-guidance/articleshow/81908765.cms">Record breaking quarter for Indian IT services is a given ⁠— all eyes are now on guidance</a>

Even if India opens up COVID-19 vaccination for everyone above 18 years of age, it will take another six to seven months to vaccinate the entire country

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