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Mumbai: India is on track to becoming the <keyword id="20432305" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="third-largest-economy" source="keywords">third-largest economy</keyword> by 2030-31, driven by a projected annual growth rate of 6.7 per cent this fiscal, <keyword id="19990557" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="SP-Global" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="S&amp;P Global" meta.hostid="153" meta.entityid="S&amp;P Global">S&amp;P Global</keyword> said in a report on Thursday. The report also said that with 8.2 per cent growth rate in FY2024, continued reforms are crucial to improving business transactions and logistics, boosting <keyword id="20423043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-sector-investment" source="keywords">private sector investment</keyword>, and reducing reliance on public capital. It said equity markets are expected to stay dynamic and competitive due to strong growth prospects and better regulation, and foreign inflows into Indian government bonds have surged since the country joined major emerging market indexes, with further growth anticipated. To maximize trade benefits, India must develop infrastructure and geopolitical strategies, particularly regarding its extensive coastline, said the first edition of 'India Forward: Emerging Perspectives' report. Nearly 90 per cent of India's trade is seaborne, necessitating robust port infrastructure to manage increasing exports and bulk commodity imports, it added. Noting that India faces rising domestic energy demands and can look to sustainable technologies, including renewables and low-emission fuels, balancing energy security with its energy transition plans, the report stated that agriculture will rely on advanced technologies and new policies to improve infrastructure and productivity. The need is to address critical infrastructure issues such as irrigation, storage, and supply distribution to ensure food security and economic stability, it added. The <keyword id="23234467" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="sp-global-india-research" source="keywords">S&amp;P Global India Research</keyword> Chapter's inaugural study was launched here on Thursday.

India on track to becoming third-largest economy by FY31: S&P Global report

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19910265" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="gold-prices" source="keywords">Gold prices</keyword> have hit record highs, thanks to global uncertainties and expectations of central bank rate cuts.</li><li>China's consumers and its central bank are snapping up gold, even as a falling <keyword id="20283765" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="yuan" source="keywords">yuan</keyword> makes the metal pricier.</li></ul>China's economy isn't in a great place and its currency is floundering. The tumult is sending prices of gold, considered a safe-haven asset, skyrocketing. <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/realtime-chart/gold-price">Spot gold prices</a> have recently hit record highs — above $2,400 an ounce — thanks to global demand on the back of economic and geopolitical uncertainties. Expectations of <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-record-high-pce-inflation-hedge-data-rate-cuts-2024-4">central bank interest rate cuts</a> also boost gold's appeal, since the yields on fixed-income assets like bonds typically fall as rates go down. In China, consumers are dealing with an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-first-quarter-gdp-growth-but-pain-not-over-2024-4">economy</a> that is struggling to recover post-pandemic and a weak yuan that has fallen about 5% against the US dollar over the last year. This makes gold — which, like most internationally-traded commodities, is denominated in the US dollar on the global market — even more expensive for the Chinese consumer. But consumers and China's central bank can't get enough gold. Even Gen Z investors in China are getting into the trend as they buy up tiny bottles of "gold beans," Bloomberg <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-03-16/what-little-gold-beans-are-teaching-young-chinese-about-alternative-savings">reported last month</a>. They're looking for alternatives to China's <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-hong-kong-stock-market-slump-confused-beijing-economy-signals-2024-1">stock markets,</a> which have been flailing over the last few years. China's central bank has also been buying up gold, in much larger quantities than Gen Z's few grams of beans. The People's Bank of China, or PBOC, has been snapping up gold for 17 straight months,with its holdings of the precious metal rising 16% over this period, according to a report from the international trade association <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gold.org/goldhub/gold-focus/2024/04/chinas-gold-market-march-official-gold-reserves-rose-further-wholesale#:~:text=China's%20central%20bank%20announced%20its%2017th%20consecutive%20purchase&amp;text=China's%20gold%20reserves%20rose%20by,17%20months%20(Chart%208).">World Gold Council.</a> This buying spree coincides with a trend among central banks globally to <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/gold-price-china-economy-dollar-yuan-central-bank-dedollarization-commodities-2024-3">diversify their holdings</a> to reduce their reliance on the US dollar. In 2023, China's central bank bought 225 tons of gold, per the World Gold Council. Last month, China's gold reserve rose by 5 tons, taking the country's total stash to 2,262 tons. <h2>China has overtaken India as the world's <keyword id="21389468" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="largest-gold-buyer" source="Orion">largest gold buyer</keyword></h2>Since China is now home to swarms of gold bugs, the country has decidedly overtaken India as the world's largest buyer of the commodity. The two economies have been jostled in the top spots for years, but China's buying spree last year put India behind. Last year, China's demand for gold jewelry rose 10%, to 630 tons acquired, while India's purchases fell 6%, to 562 tons, according to the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2023">World Gold Council.</a> US consumers were a far third place, buying just 136 tons of gold jewelry in 2023. It's not just China. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.gold.org/goldhub/data/gold-reserves-by-country">World Gold Council data</a> shows other central banks,includingPoland and Singapore, have also been snapping up gold to hedge against global economic uncertainties. India's central bank bought 16.2 tons of gold last year. The US did not add any gold to its reserves. However, the US already has the world's largest gold holdings, with about 8,134 tons of the precious metal — far more than second-place Germany, which holds 3,352 tons of the commodity. Despite the gold rush, Georgette Boele, an economist at Dutch bank ABN AMRO, warned about going all-in on the commodity amid record-high prices in an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.abnamro.com/research/en/our-research/gold-watch-the-sky-seems-the-limit-for-gold-prices">April 15 note.</a> "The trend in gold prices is positive and the sky seems to be the limit. However we remain cautious," wrote Boele. She highlighted a seeming paradox in the market: High US interest rates would typically keep gold prices muted, but the opposite is happening. "Even though these changes have occurred in the past, they tend to be temporary in nature meaning that they could last around three to six months," wrote Boele. Lofty gold prices now doesn't mean there's a supply crunch, she wrote. "The amount of central bank buying is not justifying gold prices at current levels," she wrote. Based on that assessment, she said she's keeping her forecast of $2,000 per ounce of gold at the end of 2024, below the current going rate around $2,400.

People in China continue to buy gold even as the currency remains weak!

Gandhinagar, <keyword id="7706673" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="finance-minister-nirmala-sitharaman" source="Orion">Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> said on Wednesday exuded confidence that India will become the world's third largest economy worth over USD 5 trillion by 2027-28 and a developed nation by 2047, with GDP touching USD 30 trillion. India, with a GDP of roughly USD 3.4 trillion, is currently the fifth largest economy in the world, after the US, China, Japan and Germany. Sitharaman said during the Amritkal, which will mark 100 years of India's Independence in 2047, emphasis is being given to sunrise industries. Also, the FDI policy of the Narendra Modi Government has helped attract foreign investment, with USD 595 billion coming in the last 9 years. "It is possible that we will be the third largest economy by 2027-28, and our GDP will cross USD 5 trillion by that time. By 2047, it is a conservative estimate that we will reach at least USD 30 trillion in terms of economy," Sitharaman said while addressing a seminar of Vibrant Gujarat Global Summit 2024. Stressing that the people of India have met with the challenges post-COVID and recovery is on a strong footing, she said Gujarat will be the engine of growth in India's march to become a developed economy by 2047. The state has 5 per cent of India's population but contributes 8.5 per cent to the country's GDP. It is rapidly moving forward at 12 per cent CAGR (annual growth) between 2011 and 2021 against a national average of 10.4 per cent, the Union <keyword id="6355261" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="finance-minister" source="Orion">Finance Minister</keyword> said. Sitharaman said India is on track to become an in-house producer of semiconductors, and EV adoption is happening in a big way. All of these are the result of the FDI policy being pursued by the government. Between April 2000 and March 2023, in 23 years, India has attracted USD 919 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI). 65 per cent of this, or USD 595 billion, has come in the last 8-9 years, Sitharaman said. "FDI is coming in... where policies bring in greater certainty, convenience, ease of doing business, FDI flows in. Of course, disruptions of higher US Fed rate and other things can divert it elsewhere. But despite that, we have been receiving that kind of flow of the FDI. It is not as if it's coming only for manufacturing, it is coming in the service sector (as well)," she said. Speaking about financial inclusion, Sitharaman said 80 per cent of people have bank accounts. The number of bank account holders increased to 50 crore from 15 crore in 2014.

India to be third largest economy by FY28, a developed nation by 2047: FM

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia is weighing a plan to combine three of its oil giants, The Wall Street Journal reported. </li><li>The report says the merger would help Russian energy be more competitive amid slowing oil demand.</li></ul>Russia is considering a plan to combine three of its oil giants, making for the world's second-largest largest oil producer, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/russia-explores-plan-to-merge-oil-giants-into-mega-producer-80a6aa6b">The Wall Street Journal reported</a>. The deal would involve state-backed Rosneft Oil taking over state-owned Gazprom Neft (a subsidiary of Gazprom) and the independently-run Lukoil, the Journal report said. Sources speaking with the Journal said the possible deal is subject to change and has been discussed among executives and government officials over the past few months.Talks of similar mergers have circulated in recent years, but there remain some hurdles, like opposition from executives at Rosneft and Lukoil, plus the large amount of financing needed to pay Lukoil's shareholders, the report said.It added that the merger is part of Putin's effort to compete with Saudi Arabia while oil demand slows amid a push toward renewable sources. If successful, the post-merger entity would be one of the world's largest oil producers, second only to Saudi Aramco, which produced almost 10 million barrels of oil a day in 2023, according to data from Rystad Energy UCube.It would also pump nearly three times that of US oil producer Exxon Mobil, the report added.The deal's proponents say the merger could generate far more revenue since the oil output from the three companies could be sold through Litasco, Lukoil's trading unit in Dubai.That would help fuel Putin's war effort in Ukraine. Oil and gas are key lifelines for Russia's economy, and provide nearly a third of federal revenue, but have faced new obstacles amid Western sanctions.Rosneft, Gazprom Neft, and Lukoil all face sanctions, making it difficult to engage in the energy trade with partners around the world. The report comes as oil prices have been largely depressed this year, partly because China has suffered a prolonged economic downturn and as the conflict in the Middle East hasn't resulted in any disruption to supply. The report said spokespeople from some of the involved parties denied the deal. A Rosneft spokesperson said the information was incorrect, while a Lukoil spokesperson said the company was not involved in merger talks because it would not be in the interest of the company, the report says. A state spokesperson, meanwhile, said the administration was not aware of a deal, the report adds.

Russia could merge state-run oil companies to make the world's 2nd largest producer, report says

India's GDP growth is projected at 7.2 per cent in 2024-25, around 7 per cent in the next fiscal, and after that, there is a strong likelihood that the growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend, said <keyword id="19899810" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Reserve-Bank-of-India" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Reserve Bank of India" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Reserve Bank of India">Reserve Bank of India</keyword> deputy governor <keyword id="20244361" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Michael-Debabrata-Patra" source="keywords">Michael Debabrata Patra</keyword>. He was speaking at the New York Fed Central Banking Seminar organised by the <keyword id="20238413" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Federal-Reserve-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Federal Reserve Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Federal Reserve Bank">Federal Reserve Bank</keyword> here on Monday. "...I do believe with all the strength of my conviction that India's time has come," he said, and highlighted the country heads into its future with the youngest population in the world with a median age of 28 years. Unlike in many parts of the world, the working age population is growing -- every sixth working age person is an Indian. Patra said that since independence in 1947, India's growth path has undergone three structural shifts with trend growth, having risen to 7 per cent during 2002-2019. After the severe contraction during the pandemic, a new growth trajectory averaging 8 per cent seems to be forming during 2021-24, he said. India is now regarded as the fastest growing major economy in the world. Already the fifth largest economy in terms of market exchange rates, it is poised to become the third largest economy by 2030, the senior RBI official said and added the country is already the third largest economy in terms of <keyword id="20776921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="purchasing-power-parity" source="keywords">purchasing power parity</keyword>. "Our projections show that India's <keyword id="21013593" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-GDP-growth" source="keywords">real GDP growth</keyword> will be 7.2 per cent in 2024-25 and around 7.0 per cent in 2025-26 in a cyclical correction to the rebound from the pandemic. Thereafter, there is a strong likelihood that India's growth will revert to the 8 per cent trend," Patra said. On inflation, he said it is projected to average 4.5 per cent in 2024-25 and 4.1 per cent in 2025-26. Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation fell below target during July-August but rose to 5.5 per cent in September on the back of a pickup in price momentum in some food items and adverse base effects inherent in year-on-year measurement. "Our projection indicates that these price pressures will persist in October and November before headline inflation realigns with the target from December 2024 and remains aligned in 2025-26," the deputy governor said. He also emphasised that India is emerging as a world leader in leveraging <keyword id="20181895" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="digital-technologies" source="keywords">digital technologies</keyword> for transformative change.

India likely to grow at 7.2% in FY25, says RBI deputy governor

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Donald Trump proposed mass deportation to lower housing costs and boost job opportunities.</li><li>Democrats argue deportations harm businesses, separate families, and displace millions.</li></ul>The <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-deportation-immigration-policy-election-housing-home-prices-construction-costs-2024-10">mass deportation</a> of people living in the US illegally has been one of the cornerstones of the Republican presidential ticket leading up to the November election.In speeches, former president <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-affordability-supply-impact-presidential-election-scenarios-homebuyers-harris-trump-2024-10">Donald Trump</a> has suggested that deportations could lower housing prices and give legal residents, especially Black and Hispanic Americans, more job opportunities. His supporters say allowing migrants to enter the country and live and work illegally places a long-term burden on the economy."We're going to have the largest deportation in the history of our country," Trump <a target="_blank" href="https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-vows-mass-deportation-migrants-springfield-dismisses-threats/story?id=113661663">said in September</a> while taking reporter questions in Los Angeles. "And we're going to start with <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/springfield-ohio-town-center-baseless-trump-pet-eating-claims-tensions-2024-9">Springfield</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.denverpost.com/2024/09/13/aurora-tren-de-aragua-donald-trump-venezuela-immigration/">Aurora</a>," he added, referring to the Ohio and Colorado cities where debates around immigration have been particularly tense.Many Democrats say <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-mass-deportation-immigraiton-plan-federal-reserve-inflation-2024-9">mass deportations</a> would hurt businesses and employment opportunities for all Americans, in addition to separating families and displacing millions of people. It's especially salient in the crucial southern border swing state of Arizona."We all remember what they did to tear families apart, and now they have pledged to carry out the largest deportation — a mass deportation — in American history," Vice President Kamala Harris said at a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFCjE-73yUw">September conference</a>. "Imagine what that would look like and what that would be. How is that going to happen? Massive raids? Massive detention camps?"Current <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-latinos-shifting-right-trump-harris-gop-democrats-starr-county-2024-10">immigration</a> policy already supports deporting large numbers of unauthorized residents. The Biden administration has deported over <a target="_blank" href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-deportation-record">1.1 million</a> people from 2021 to February 2024, and Vice President Kamala Harris has supported <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/trump-vs-harris-immigration-future-policy-proposals">higher standards</a> for asylum eligibility.Deportations would likely continue under Harris' administration, but Trump's proposals would be an order of magnitude greater and perhaps the most consequential outcome of his second term.A September <a target="_blank" href="https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2024/09/09/issues-and-the-2024-election/">Pew Research Center poll</a> found that immigration is a key issue for more than half of Americans as they cast their ballots. To untangle the data and campaign rhetoric and understand the effects of mass deportation on the economy, Business Insider reviewed research and spoke with over a dozen experts, politicians, local advocacy organizations, and immigrants.<h2 id="460770c2-debc-4bb0-921f-c9c4040c1f7b">2 cities in Arizona show the crux of the economic debate</h2>Immigrants, both authorized and unauthorized, make up nearly 13% of Arizona's population, one of the highest in the country, the nonpartisan think tank <a target="_blank" href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/data/state-profiles/state/demographics/AZ">Migration Policy Institute</a> estimates. Pew Research Center estimates <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.kjzz.org/kjzz-news/2024-07-30/report-undocumented-migrants-make-up-3-5-of-arizonas-population">as many as 250,000</a> Arizona residents could be deported under Trump's plan.Some of those deportees could be from Yuma, Arizona, a city near the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-arizona-mexico-border-security-immigration-trump-election-2024-9">US-Mexico border</a>. Its mayor, Douglas Nicholls, told BI that upticks in illegal immigration have strained the city's resources and infrastructure.Nicholls, a Republican, plans to vote for Trump and wants the next president to focus on more funding and staffing for the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency. He said the US needs to prioritize immediate processing for those seeking asylum, improve technology along the border, and expedite removal processes."We're not equipped as a community to handle large amounts of people coming through without resources," Nicholls said. "We don't have a homeless shelter focused on migrants. Our homeless shelter is focused on pretty much residents, and it's pretty busy at that already."When it comes to mass deportations, he said the town's main industry, agriculture, wouldn't suffer too much because employers use legal paths to work authorization, like H-2A or green-card programs, to recruit labor. He said that migrants tend to pass through Yuma before moving on.Tucson's mayor, Regina Romero, said the story is different in Arizona's second-most populous city. She told BI that a mass deportation would devastate the agriculture, construction, and hospitality industries.Romero, a Democrat who endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris, said immigrants living in the country illegally "pay <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rich-life-insurance-estate-taxes-ilit-2024-9">taxes</a> and have billions of dollars worth of spending power."Instead of deportation, Romero said she wants the federal government to add more judges and staff to shorten asylum-application wait times and invest more in infrastructure at ports of entry."For many decades, Tucson has known how to help immigrant refugee and asylum-seeking populations connect to whomever they need to connect to," Romero said. "We know how to do it."<h2 id="797f992d-38a7-4c54-a0ef-9b344070016b">The national economic impact of mass deportations</h2>Removing the <a target="_blank" href="https://cmsny.org/us-undocumented-population-increased-in-july-2023-warren-090624/#:~:text=The%20total%20undocumented%20population%20increased,to%2010%20million%20in%202020.">estimated</a> 11.7 million unauthorized immigrants from the US would reshape the labor market, cost an enormous amount, strain government services, and affect economic growth and inflation for a decade or more.<h3 id="91aa708f-8270-476a-97e4-7e553eda3734">Employment and the labor market</h3>The Trump campaign and its allies have argued that deportations could open more employment opportunities for Americans.Immigrants are "going to be attacking — and they already are — Black population jobs, the Hispanic population jobs, and they're attacking union jobs, too," Trump said at an October rally in Reading, Pennsylvania.Immigrants account for a third of workers in jobs paying under $30,000 a year, the conservative think tank American Compass <a target="_blank" href="https://americancompass.org/a-guide-to-labor-supply/">said</a>. Duncan Braid, its coalition director, told BI that competition from those immigrants hurts lower-income Americans. He said while mass deportations may cost the government a lot of money, its role is to protect the Constitution and its citizens."We currently have a situation where there is sort of an unlimited number of lower-skilled people coming into this country, and them competing directly with other low-skilled Americans already here would necessarily, just based on very basic theory, suppress their wages," Braid said.Recent research suggests the opposite. A <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nber.org/papers/w32389">working paper by economists</a> at the University of California, Davis, found that increases in immigration can boost native employment."We really don't see much evidence of substitution between unauthorized immigrants and US-born people at all," <a target="_blank" href="https://www.brookings.edu/people/chloe-east/">Chloe East</a>, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, said. "That's partly because the jobs that unauthorized immigrants are willing to take are lower-paying, are more dangerous, and are less desirable for other reasons."<h3 id="dd881018-1654-4a0f-89bc-4814c3eb733e">How much a mass deportation would cost the government</h3>The Trump campaign has talked little about how mass deportations could be implemented and on what scale. While in the White House, Trump carried out about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.migrationpolicy.org/article/biden-deportation-record">1.5 million</a> deportations and made similar promises about mass deportation but was met with various legal challenges. At a campaign rally on October 11 in Aurora, Colorado, Trump pledged to use a 1798 law to deport suspected members of cartels and gangs.To carry out what he called "the largest domestic deportation operation in American history," Trump plans to bolster ICE raids by reassigning federal agents and recruiting from local police forces and says he'll order the construction of new detention camps for people waiting for their cases to be processed, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/11/us/politics/trump-2025-immigration-agenda.html">The New York Times reported</a>.That would be an expensive undertaking. Using Census Bureau data, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/mass-deportation">American Immigration Council</a> estimated it would cost the federal government over $315 billion, including hiring up to 409,000 new government employees.In addition to labor market disruptions, economists also say the country would lose tax revenue. Unauthorized immigrants paid $96.7 billion in federal, state, and local taxes — about $8,889 per person — in 2022, the <a target="_blank" href="https://itep.org/undocumented-immigrants-taxes-2024/">Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy</a> said. In 2022, unauthorized immigrants paid about $704 million in state and local taxes in Arizona alone.Supporters of deportation argue that the loss of tax revenue would be offset by savings on reduced services for immigrants. A study from the conservative <a target="_blank" href="https://manhattan.institute/article/the-lifetime-fiscal-impact-of-immigrants">Manhattan Institute</a> estimated that while older and less-educated immigrants, on average, receive more in federal benefits than they pay in taxes, higher-educated young immigrants are taxed more than they get back over their lifetime.The Trump campaign has made a similar argument, saying that welfare programs, taxpayer-subsidized health insurance, transportation costs through FEMA, and education expenses for immigrants ultimately cost taxpayers billions of dollars."The real economic crisis is the $182 billion American tax dollars spent each year to cover the costs of 20 million illegal immigrants that have flooded our communities thanks to Kamala Harris' wide-open border policies," Taylor Rogers, an RNC spokesperson, said in a statement to Business Insider."President Trump's mass deportation of illegal immigrants will not only make our communities safer but will save Americans from footing the bill for years to come," Rogers added.<h3 id="636206ff-627e-4eb3-9f7e-3ba104a3e936">Economic growth and inflation</h3>Mass deportations could have consequences for economic growth as a whole. The Trump campaign hasn't addressed overall growth and inflation concerns but has said deportations would help reduce demand in the housing market.On a more macro scale, the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2024/mass-deportations-would-harm-us-economy">Peterson Institute</a> for International Economics said gross domestic product could fall 1.2% below baseline by 2028 if 1.3 million people are deported, while inflation could climb 0.5 percentage points above current estimates by 2026. In a more extreme scenario where 8.4 million people are deported, GDP could fall by 7.4% and inflation could climb 3.5 percentage points above baseline by the end of the decade.The American Immigration Council has a similarly negative view of the economic impact. It estimated that the US could lose between 4.2% and 6.8% in GDP if about 11 million people are deported."It would be very easy for an average American to see the impact of this policy in their daily life," Marcus Noland, the executive vice president and director of studies at the Peterson Institute, said.

Arizona is the epicenter of the debate over how Trump's mass deportation plan would hit the economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's GDP grew 4.6% in the third quarter — its slowest pace of growth in six quarters.</li><li>The People's Bank of China triggered two market support programs after China announced economic data.</li></ul>China on Friday released third-quarter growth data that was its slowest in six quarters, but its stock markets still ended higher on a shot of confidence from its central bank.China's economy grew 4.6% in the third quarter of this year, the country's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202410/t20241018_1957042.html">statistics bureau</a> announced as it touted a "stable growth trend." This was higher than the 4.5% growth forecast that economists polled by Reuters had expected but lower than the 4.7% recorded in the second quarter of the year.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://stcn.com/article/detail/1356778.html">Sheng Laiyun, the deputy head of China's statistics bureau,</a> told reporters the bureau is confident of hitting the country's official GDP growth target for the year of around 5% based on the trend of economic stabilization and recovery seen in September.China's third-quarter GDP brings growth in the world's second-largest economy to 4.8% through the first three quarters of this year. That puts it at "striking distance" to hit its full-year growth target, wrote Lynn Song, the chief economist for Greater China at <a target="_blank" href="https://think.ing.com/articles/chinas-3q-gdp-beat-should-keep-growth-target-in-striking-distance/">ING.</a>September's retail sales figures were also promising, as they rose 3.2% from a year ago to a four-month high. It was also higher than the 2.5% growth economists polled by Reuters had expected.Meanwhile, industrial production in September grew 5.4% from a year ago — higher than the 4.5% economists had forecast.Even so, some analysts are not convinced the economic data release signals a convincing recovery."We would downplay the importance of better-than-expected key economic indicators in September given that the structural weakness in the property and household sectors remains largely unaddressed," wrote Betty Wang, the lead economist at Oxford Economics, in a note on Friday.In September, China's new home prices fell 5.8% from a year ago — the fastest pace since May 2015, according to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-new-home-prices-fall-fastest-pace-since-2015-2024-10-18/">Reuters</a> calculations based on official data."The property market unsurprisingly remains the biggest drag on China's growth," wrote Song, adding that stabilization in the real estate market remains "elusive."<h2 id="be1d62f1-13f0-4ff7-949a-fa2fb1c30260">The People's Bank of China to the rescue</h2>Also on Friday, markets got a shot in the arm as <a target="_blank" class="" href="http://www.pbc.gov.cn/goutongjiaoliu/113456/113469/5481032/index.html">the People's Bank of China</a> pulled the trigger on two funding programs that stand to inject as much as 800 billion Chinese yuan, or $112.6 billion, into its stock market.These programs — a share buyback and a swap facility — were first announced in <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-aggressive-monetary-stimulus-interest-rate-rrr-2024-9">late September</a> in a package of measures to support the stock market.PBOC's governor also signaled more interest rate cuts at a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-cenbank-chief-warns-against-any-illegal-fund-flows-into-stock-market-2024-10-18/">financial forum on Friday.</a>The central bank's announcements on Friday boosted market sentiment, sending China's benchmark <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/csi-300">CSI300</a> to close 3.6% higher. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index also closed 3.6% up."The market is in a bad-news-is-good-news mode, as weak data implies more stimulus ahead," Larry Hu, the head of China economics at Macquarie Group, wrote.China's economy is being dragged by factors including a property crisis, high youth unemployment, and deflation. Especially concerning is <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7">depressed consumer sentiment</a> as people prefer saving over spending in the current downturn.China has made frequent mentions of support and stimulus measures in recent weeks in an attempt to shore up flagging sentiment after years of negative news and after a massive rally last month ran out of steam."I think they are really trying to underpin growth," Rajiv Biswas, an international economist who's also the author of "<a target="_blank" rel="nofollow sponsored noindex" class="" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=2252c62746e53e506c655ce3df395bcea3ecbee5e1b11653f5e13361d3be9338&amp;postID=6711e994e5b54083005dea1d&amp;postSlug=china-economy-3q-gdp-growth-stock-market-stimulus-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.amazon.com%2FAsian-Megatrends-Rajiv-Biswas%2Fdp%2F1137441887">Asian Megatrends</a>," told Business Insider.He added that he expects Beijing to continue to do more to support growth so the economy can enter 2025 on better footing."We expect the policy coordination between monetary and fiscal policy will be stepped up in the following quarters. This should cushion the downside risks in the economy," wrote Oxford Economics' Wang.

China just triggered more stimulus measures, even as it says its economy is showing 'stable growth'

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Russia's brain drain has become its economy's biggest problem, an economist told Business Insider.</li><li>The nation has been losing highly skilled workers, who have fled the war since 2022. </li></ul>Russia's biggest problem isn't related to sanctions or its diminished energy trade. Its greatest dilemma is that it is losing its mostly highly skill workers, who are fleeing amid the third year of grinding conflict in Ukraine.Richard Portes, an economist at the London Business School, foresees a grim future ahead for Russia as the nation continues looks locked into a war with no end in sight.Portes predicts the future will largely be shaped by the countless Russians who have already fled the country, with Russia <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/russia-economy-massive-brain-drain-workforce-shortage-ukraine-war-sanctions-2023-6?_gl=1*stij0f*_ga*OTI1ODIwOTQ2LjE3MTYzOTg2NjU.*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyNDg2NTk0MC4yODIuMS4xNzI0ODY2OTY0LjU4LjAuMA">losing around a million of its own citizens</a> in the year after it began its invasion of Ukraine.Many of those citizens were from Russia's youngest and most educated demographics: 86% who left Russia in 2022 were under the age of 45, and 80% of those who left had a college education, according to an <a target="_blank" href="https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/files/ifri_inozemstev_exodus_july_2023.pdf">analysis</a> from the French Institute of International Relations.Many of those who left were also among the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-oligarchs-try-to-escape-sanctions-take-jets-yachts-dubai-2022-3">wealthier cohorts of Russian society</a>, and they've taken their cash with them. The nation lost nearly $42 billion in 2022 as Russians <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">transferred their personal savings</a> abroad.Those losses have coalesced into a <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-economy-brain-drain-labor-shortage-workforce-exodus-capital-flight-2023-9">Russian brain drain</a>, and its impact has already been acutely felt, Portes said, adding that it will exacerbate other problems Russia is dealing with, such as a growing <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-inflation-outlook-ukraine-war-gas-prices-oil-sales-2024-7">inflation crisis</a>."Whatever the outcome of the war, in five years' time, Russia will have been depleted, worn out its physical capital except in the defense sector and will have lost a huge amount of knowledge capital, human capital," Portes told Business Insider, adding that he believed Russia's economy could deteriorate over the next decade. "So in terms of a modern economy, what is it that we most depend on? It's those well-trained people, almost whatever sector you're talking about."<h2 id="e9588191-cce7-4cd4-a49e-a3a52fb4e30a">Losing the cream of the crop</h2>It's difficult to replace highly educated or skilled workers, especially since the loss of those workers means there's no one to pass knowledge down to the next generation, Portes said.That's why he anticipates the effects of Russia's brain drain to be felt over the long-run, predicting the nation will soon see growth turn sluggish as its well of innovative people runs dry."Take someone who's 10 or 15 years out of graduate school, who's inventing something or designing some piece of software. You can't replace somebody like that with a new graduate," Portes said.The long-lasting nature of brain drain makes the issue more serious than, say, inflation, which could be remedied by central bank maneuvering. It could be difficult to boost Russia's supply of skilled and educated workers, Portes said, especially as Russia loses men on the battlefield and continues to navigate its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-population-decline-worker-shortage-growth-outlook-ukraine-war-2024-8">decade-long population decline</a>.Russia was <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-lacks-workers-ukraine-war-labor-crisis-worker-shortage-2023-12">short around 5 million workers</a> in 2023, according to estimates from the Institute of Economics of the Russian Academy of Sciences, with sectors like manufacturing, construction, and transportation seeing the largest deficits.Labor productivity in Russia also dropped more than 3% last year, according to CEIC data.Meanwhile, patent filings fell 13% in Russia in 2022, and patent filings from foreign applicants dropped 30%, according to data from the <a target="_blank" href="https://rospatent.gov.ru/content/uploadfiles/otchet-2023.pdf">Russian Patent Office</a>.Over the next decade, Russia's economy could devolve into one dependent mainly on its natural resources rather than on the most innovative industries, Portes speculated. That's similar to what other economic forecasters have predicted, with some warning Russia's economy could become <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/russia-economy-ukraine-war-tech-reverse-industrialization-central-bank-finland-2023-3">de-industrialized</a> as its resources are siphoned off by the war.That also means a poorer quality of life for Russians, Portes said. as the quality of everything from education to medical care to public services declines."It will be reduced to a resource economy, a natural resource economy," he said of Russia's future.Other economists have issued similarly dark warnings. At this point, Moscow's finances are so strained, the nation probably can't <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2">afford to either win or lose the war</a>, according to an analysis from one European economist. Russia also looks on track to <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-collapse-recession-moscow-ukraine-war-us-dollar-energy-2024-7">enter a severe recession</a> by the end of the year, one UC Berkeley professor previously told Business Insider.It's a stark change from what Russia looked like in the 1990s and early 2000s, Portes said, when growth was strong and investment in the nation was thriving."Russia was in some respects, highly developed," he added. "You can go from that to an economy that is rotting away, and it's not hard to do it if you really want to do it. And that's sadly what is happening."

Why Russia's brain drain is the biggest problem facing its economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="19912297" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Nvidia" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Nvidia" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Nvidia">Nvidia</keyword>'s stock fell 9.5% due to concerns about AI and the <keyword id="20335130" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="US-economy" source="keywords">US economy</keyword>.</li><li>Investors are worried about economic indicators and potential recession signals from the Fed.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-earnings-ai-hype-investors-returns-jensen-huang-big-tech-2024-8">Nvidia</a> has taken two major hits in the last four working days. First, investors punished the company for <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-q2-earnings-ai-investors-expectations-2024-8" target="_blank">not beating expectations enough</a> when it reported earnings on August 28. And on Tuesday, its stock slid 9.5%, shedding $278.9 billion in valuation — the biggest single-day loss ever recorded by a US company. The wipeout is tied to concerns, including the health of AI and the US economy. A metric for manufacturing jobs, released on Tuesday, shrank for the third consecutive month, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-nasdaq-selloff-nvidia-tech-ism-manufacturing-recession-2024-9">both major indices took a hit</a>. There's also bearish sentiment about a US employment employment report later this week. In just two weeks, analysts expect the Fed to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/fed-rate-cuts-corporate-earnings-federal-reserve-slowdown-trivariate-research-2024-9">announce interest rate cuts</a>, which could be larger than they first expected, sending omens about the chances of a recession. At a company level, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-stock-prediction-nvda-sell-stock-market-inflation-rates-outlook-2024-9?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">one strategist flagged </a>that Nvidia is flashing a big "sell" sign to investors. Bill Blain, the founder of Wind Shift Capital and a longtime financial strategist, wrote in a note on Tuesday that <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-may-lose-ai-inference-market-groq-cerebras-2024-8">Nvidia's soaring valuation </a>has made many of its employees very wealthy. Citing numbers from a recent poll, Blain said that leaves less than a third of Nvidia's staff with "any real daily financial pressure upon them," which should make investors question their motivation and Nvidia's productivity. There were also renewed warnings about <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/ai-frontier-crowded-winners-losers-2024-8">AI spending</a> and how it will take time to materialize into results for investors. Michael Cembalest, the chairman of market and investment strategy at JPMorgan Asset Management, said investors are looking past GPU sales and focusing on whether the tech giants on Nvidia's customer list can make money from the hundreds of billions they have spent on AI. Blackrock echoed a similar sentiment: Investors are debating whether the dollars in spending will show up in future bottom lines, and how many years it will take. These concerns explain why <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-talks-invests-openai-microsoft-apple-100-billion-valuation-reports-2024-8">Nvidia</a> was not the only chipmaker that took a hit on Tuesday. Intel fell 8.8%, AMD dropped 7.8%, and Qualcomm fell almost 7%. An overall chip index — VanEck Semiconductor — was down 7.5%. Nvidia's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/doj-subpoena-nvidia-antitrust-investigation-heats-up-report-2024-9">stock fell 2.4% after hours</a> after the US Department of Justice subpoenaed the company as part of a probe into whether <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-doj-investigation-runai-big-tech-crackdown-antitrust-acquisition-competition-2024-8">it violated antitrust laws</a>. Nvidia's massive valuation drop comes more than two years after <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-q4-earnings-largest-ever-one-day-wipeout-190-billion-2022-2">Meta lost $237 billion in market value</a> in a single day in February 2022. Apple, which held the record before that, lost $180 billion in one day in September 2020. The 2022 rout was Meta's second time on the chart. In July 2018, the company <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/facebook-stock-price-earnings-report-market-value-on-pace-for-record-drop-2018-7">shed $119 billion in market cap</a> in a single day after reporting slowing growth in its second-quarter earnings. It was the largest one-day market cap slump at the time. Correction: September 4, 2024 — Because of an editing error, an earlier version of this story misstated when Nvidia most recently reported its earnings. It was on August 28, not September 28.

Nvidia just recorded the biggest single-day wipeout by a US company

<ul class="summary-list"><li><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon">Amazon</a> says that deal-seeking shoppers dented its sales.</li><li>Next quarter might be rough, too. The Olympics and the US election might distract people, it says.</li></ul><a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-earnings">Amazon said deal-hungry shoppers dented sales </a>in the second quarter, presenting a bleak picture of the economy as prices continue to batter American wallets.Amazon <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-stock-amzn-quarterly-earnings-call-report-live-updates-2024-7">missed sales estimates</a> Thursday, and the retail giant said it anticipated softening consumer demand in the third quarter — which sent shares falling in after-hours trading.On a call with reporters, Amazon CFO Brian Olsavsky said shoppers were "cautious" and "looking for deals" — trading down to lower-priced items whenever possible.That helped boost Amazon's lower-priced Everyday Essentials category, which includes non-perishable foods, health, and personal care items. But those lower-priced items weighed on sales.And while <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-ceo">Amazon CEO Andy Jassy</a> said that "more discretionary, higher-ticket items," like computers and other electronics, were "growing fast" for the company, he still sounded a note of caution.Those categories are growing "more slowly than we see in a more robust economy," he warned.<h2 id="dff16b89-7c13-4722-9e59-b26eeb1d66c2">Distractions like the Olympics and the US elections could also weigh</h2>Looking ahead, Olsavsky said the third quarter would be difficult to accurately forecast because shoppers are likely to be preoccupied by major world events like the US presidential campaign and the Olympics."We do see different traffic patterns during those events," Olsavsky said.At the same time, he noted that Prime Day in July — Amazon's 10th — was its "largest ever."Prime Day deals could present some headwinds to operating profits, he said. And cautious consumers could dent sales, the company said.Amazon isn't alone in flagging shopper fatigue with rising prices.Shoppers are showing elsewhere that they're sick of price increases — leading retailers to say that they're <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/shoppers-spending-less-retailers-brands-cutting-prices-economy-explained-why-2024-7">offering deals to try to entice people back</a>.American pocketbooks have been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/high-prices-inflation-sticking-interest-rate-hikes-stock-market-2024-5">battered by rising prices</a>, with certain items <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-costs-keep-rising-inflation-goes-down-eggs-tickets-insurance-2024-7">getting even more expensive</a> even as inflation gradually cools.

Amazon just gave a bleak sign about the economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China cut key interest rates after its leaders met at a Communist Party plenum last week.</li><li>China's second-quarter economic data missed government targets and analyst expectations.</li></ul>The world's second-largest economy cut several short- and long-term interest rates on Monday to prop up its sluggish, debt-burdened economy. The People's Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse repo rate by 10 basis points, from 1.8% to 1.7%, and its standing lending facility — given to commercial banks to supply temporary cash — by the same margin.China also cut its benchmark bank lending rates by 10 basis points, including its one-year loan prime rate and five-year LPR, which went from 3.45% to 3.35% and 3.95% to 3.85%, respectively.The surprise cuts come after the country reported its second-quarter economic data last week, showing economic growth up 4.7% from a year ago, missing this year's goal of 5.0%. The numbers also fell below analysts' expectations.China's strong exports continue to drive its economic growth as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-second-quarter-gdp-growth-weak-demand-consumption-exports-2024-7">consumer sentiment lags</a>, even as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-household-deposits-savings-luxury-consumer-demand-slowdown-economy-outlook-2024-7">household deposits hit record numbers last month</a>. Retail sales expanded just 2% year-over-year in June.The rate cuts follow a meeting of the country's leaders last week at the Communist Party's Central Committee, a plenum that occurs every five years. "China's Third Plenum put 'high-quality development' as the top priority. Policy makers vowed to achieve 2024 growth target and manage risks of property, local govt debts, and smaller banks," Bank of America analysts wrote on Monday. Other commentators noted that the reforms promised at the plenum and the rate cuts are positive developments, but not enough to convince skittish investors that China's problems are behind it. "[T]here still appears to be a tension between policies aimed at boosting economic security and expanding the supply-side of the economy, and those aimed at giving market forces a greater role and rebalancing growth toward consumption," Capital Economics wrote following the plenum last week. China released a policy document following the meeting that outlines goals to improve business sentiment as the country's economy faces deflation, debt, a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-outlook-home-prices-slumped-beijing-property-crisis-real-estate-2024-4">real estate crisis,</a> and tense international trade relations with other large economies.

China slashes interest rates in a surprise move to boost its slumping economy

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Pork prices in China have tumbled to their lowest mark since April 2022, Bloomberg data shows.</li><li>Softening prices on China's most popular protein are the latest warning sign China is dealing with deflation. </li></ul>Pork prices in China plunged more than 6% last week to hit its lowest level since April 2022, according to Bloomberg data.In its third cycle of purchases for the year, Beijing had said in November it was buying up more pork for its strategic reserves, but that hasn't prevented prices from falling. At the same time, per Bloomberg, authorities have requested farmers to sell hogs as soon as their ready rather than hoarding them.Falling pork prices signify the latest indicator that China's yet to escape concerns around <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-deflation-markets-property-real-estate-housing-beijing-2023-8">deflation and wobbly economic growth</a>.The country's consumer price index fell 0.5% year-over-year in November, the national statistics bureau reported on Saturday, a weaker-than-expected reading and the most significant slide since November 2020. An official from the People's Bank of China pointed to softening pork prices as a primary drag on consumer prices. Not long ago, as China was preparing to unwind pandemic lockdowns, global strategists were anticipating booming demand and an economic rebound. Yet <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-beijing-lehman-moment-policy-deflation-economy-markets-property-2023-8">mountains of debt in the real estate sector</a>, low consumer optimism, unfavorable demographics, and more have all prevented the economy from seeing a post-COVID boom in growth and activity. China's agriculture ministry said last week that pork consumption over the coming spring holiday season will remain weak, while hog output should climb.

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