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As the results season kicks in, the <keyword id="20097634" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="quarterly-earnings" source="keywords">quarterly earnings</keyword> numbers of several <keyword id="22405488" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="blue-chip-firms" source="keywords">blue-chip firms</keyword> — such as <keyword id="19906778" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Infosys" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Infosys" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Infosys">Infosys</keyword> and Reliance Industries — along with <keyword id="20837523" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="global-trends" source="keywords">global trends</keyword> and <keyword id="20223116" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="trading-activity" source="keywords">trading activity</keyword> of foreign investors, will determine <keyword id="22405487" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="equity-market-movement" source="keywords">equity market movement</keyword> in the holiday-shortened week ahead, according to analysts. The domestic <keyword id="22405489" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="WPI-inflation-data" source="keywords">WPI inflation data</keyword> for June — scheduled to be announced on Monday — will also influence trading sentiments, traders said. Markets will remain closed on Wednesday for Muharram. Among major quarterly earnings to be tracked this week are from HDFC Life Insurance Company, Bajaj Auto, BPCL, JSW Steel, Asian Paints, Infosys, and Reliance Industries. "Q1 earnings will be a key focus this week as numerous companies, including heavyweights Infosys, and Reliance, are set to release their results. Additionally, <keyword id="22194639" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="pre-Budget-discussions" source="keywords">pre-Budget discussions</keyword> are expected to contribute to market volatility," Santosh Meena, Head of Research, Swastika Investmart Ltd, said. On the global front, a significant focus will be on China. The country is scheduled to announce its GDP and Industrial Production (IIP) numbers, Meena said. "Other global factors to watch include the speech by the US Federal Reserve Chairman, US retail sales figures, and macroeconomic data from Japan," he added. Meanwhile, IT services company HCL Tech on Friday posted a 20.4 per cent rise in consolidated net profit to Rs 4,257 crore for the June-ended quarter and gave a revenue growth guidance of 3-5 per cent for FY25 on GenAI diversification and strong operational execution. "On Monday, markets will react to India's inflation data. Key results this week include Jio Financial Services, HDFC Life, Asian Paints, LTIMindtree, Infosys, Wipro, JSW Steel, Paytm, etc. Also globally, investors will take cues from China's GDP numbers, US core retail sales data, and ECB (European Central Bank) interest rate decision," Siddhartha Khemka, Head, Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said. Retail inflation increased to four-month high of 5.08 per cent in June as food items, including vegetables, became dearer, according to government data released on Friday. Vinod Nair, Head of Research, Geojit Financial Services, said, "We expect stock-specific moves to gain traction due to the ongoing earnings season; indeed, IT will be in the limelight due to the good start to the earnings and outlook." In the week ahead, economic data like China GDP, EuroZone CPI inflation, ECB policy, and the US Fed chair speech will be watched by investors to get cues on market momentum, Nair added. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark jumped 522.74 points, or 0.65 per cent, while the Nifty climbed 178.3 points, or 0.73 per cent. The 30-share BSE Sensex jumped 622 points, or 0.78 per cent, to settle at a record closing level of 80,519.34 on Friday. During the day, it zoomed 996.17 points, or 1.24 per cent, to hit an all-time high of 80,893.51. The NSE Nifty surged 186.20 points, or 0.77 per cent, to settle at a record closing high of 24,502.15. Intra-day, it jumped 276.25 points, or 1.13 per cent, to hit a new lifetime peak of 24,592.20.

Trading activity to hinge on Q1 results, global trends in holiday-shortened week: analysts

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Wall Street analysts have high hopes for Meta's third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday. </li><li>Investors are keeping an eye on growth opportunities from AI. </li></ul>Wall Street analysts are upbeat ahead of Meta's third-quarter earnings report on Wednesday after the closing bell. Analysts generally expect positive revenue and earnings figures, thanks to the Facebook parent's AI ad optimization and the firm's <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meta-reorganized-major-businesses-eliminated-roles-whatsapp-instagram-reality-labs-2024-10#:~:text=Meta%20has%20gone%20through%20several,%22efficiency%22%20would%20be%20permanent.&amp;text=As%20of%20March%2C%20Meta%20had,of%202022%2C%20BI%20previously%20reported.">sweeping cost cuts</a>, which included several rounds of layoffs in recent years and saw the firm backing away from some of its <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-cuts-spending-reality-labs-meta-report-2024-7">virtual reality projects</a>. Investors will be keeping a close eye on signs Meta can continue that growth, with the company <a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=4d0247c89eeec6faa3e72d5dee88e7c60fa1cc284a9699c5902f9e7a696dc773&amp;postID=6720fbaf3a35c2732d44c2bb&amp;postSlug=meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.theinformation.com%2Farticles%2Fmeta-develops-ai-search-engine-to-lessen-reliance-on-google-microsoft">reportedly</a> working on a new search tool that will surf the web for its AI chatbot. Wall Street is also looking for strong guidance for the current quarter, though analysts see potential for costs to come in higher than expected.Here's what analysts are saying ahead of the tech giant's earnings report. <h2 id="a8b0515c-9d85-4b4d-b1cf-6fce44552568">"Long-term story is as strong as ever": Bernstein</h2>Meta's long-run growth trajectory looks solid, according to Bernstein senior analyst Mark Shmulik. The stock is up 70% this year and is up 550% since bottoming in 2022."Near term risk and reward feels balanced," Shmulik wrote in a note, adding that the firm had a "perma-bull position on all things Meta.""But the long-term story is as strong as ever. As we look ahead we're constructive on the core business with an expected launch of ads on Threads, continued Reels ramp, more AI/Advantage+ ad tools offer investors top-line upside with a potential TikTok ban not currently priced in," he later added.The firm issued an "Outperform" rating on the stock and a $675 price target, implying 15% upside from current levels.<h2 id="dc7c6a08-8f5f-4c79-812c-4fa35a463037">"Uniquely well positioned to monetize search": JMP</h2>Meta's reported search engine could be a huge positive for the company, JMP analysts said in a note."Meta is uniquely well positioned to monetize search given its 200M+ active SMBs and 12M+ active advertisers," the firm wrote. "To that end, we believe Meta could offer a compelling commercial experience for search given its existing advertiser and SMB relationships while also using search intent signal to power its core advertising product on Facebook and Instagram."The search tool, though, could raise capital expenditures and costs, analysts said, possibly by more than investors are expecting. The firm issued an "Outperform" rating on the stock and a $635 price target, implying an 8% increase from current levels.<h2 id="3ae15c9a-d200-4592-ae15-3f19e716186b">"Top AI pick": Bank of America</h2>BofA analysts expect a "modest" earnings beat from the tech giant on Wednesday. They forecast the firm to report as much as $47.5 billion in revenue, which would represent an 18% year-over-year increase.Meta is a "top AI pick," the analysts added, pointing to a handful of tailwinds, like strong growth in Meta's AI-powered ads business, continued growth among younger users, and more AI growth opportunities in general."Our checks suggest Meta could see strength from: 1) new AI tools and new CRM integration driving higher ROI and incremental ad spend, 2) ramping messaging and Reels monetization, and 3) modest (100-200bps) political ad spend benefit," analysts wrote.The bank reiterated its "Buy" rating and $630 price target on the stock, implying 7% upside from current levels.<h2 id="2fdf202a-5a5b-4d15-a99d-48ed4f86b7d1">"Clear leader in social media": Morningstar</h2>Meta is a "<a target="_blank" href="https://affiliate.insider.com?h=8e3a91b023e95d600e3f54d96021a46339a33c3d1cf4d2a1d57384a4edc6bc4a&amp;postID=6720fbaf3a35c2732d44c2bb&amp;postSlug=meta-q3-earnings-preview-meta-stock-price-ai-growth-guidance-2024-10&amp;site=bi&amp;u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.morningstar.com%2Fstocks%2Fraising-fair-value-meta-stock-ai-ad-leadership">clear leader</a>" on an "unmatched scale" in the social meaning space, Morningstar said in a recent note, pointing to the firm's 4 billion monthly active users across its applications.Investors though, are keeping hawkish eye over signs Meta can sustain its growth, according to Dave Sekera, Morningstar's chief US market strategist."The market is going to be listening for any update on capex spending, specifically on generative AI. I'd really like to hear from them more specifically about how and when they will be able to monetize that spending. That's the big question for Meta," Sekara said. "Other than that, I'll be listening for an update on growth and digital ads; they had a big benefit from ad spending in Temu and Shein over the past couple quarters, so the question is whether that growth will continue or will it start to slow."The firm previously issued a 3-star rating for the stock and a fair value of $560, implying 5% downside from current levels.<h2 id="b7a7a27b-67d4-4195-b1a2-3e4d05b93099">"A tough bar to surpass": CFRA Research</h2>Meta could face challenges ahead due to the risk that growth decelerated in the last quarter, CFRA Research said."META has a tough bar to surpass in upcoming Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. We estimate Q3 growth decelerated to 18% from 22% in Q2 and see further deceleration to 15% in Q4 2024 and 13% in Q1 2025," CFRA senior equity analyst Angelo Zino wrote. He added that the challenge in the coming quarters will be to keep up with strong growth compared to the year-ago quarters. "We think year-over-year deceleration is due to lapping strong growth from China-based advertisers as well as strong Reels impression growth from a year ago. Still, we think digital ad trends remain healthy, with broad-based health across most regions and verticals," Angelo Zino, a senior equity analyst at CFRA, wrote.CFRA raised its price target on the stock to $650 a share, implying 11% upside.

Wall Street is bullish on Meta earnings as analysts eye an AI boost for the tech titan

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Earnings likely grew for the fifth consecutive quarter in Q3.</li><li>Top strategists are eyeing 2025 results ahead of what's likely a mid-single-digit advance.</li></ul>Corporate earnings are on pace for their best non-pandemic year since 2018, and market strategists expect the party to continue in the upcoming earnings season and into 2025.Interest rates and inflation have been investors' primary concerns this year, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/labor-market-indicators-recession-warning-signs-bca-research-berezin-2024-9">worries about the labor market</a>, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/economy-jobs-report-sentiment-consumers-elections-recession-inflation-mortgage-rates-2024-9">growth</a>, and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rates-pandemic-lows-inflation-supply-chain-geopolitical-bofa-mensah-2024-10">rising geopolitical tensions</a> have also sucked up plenty of oxygen — even though economists generally agree that a recession isn't imminent.Through all that noise, S&amp;P 500 profits have steadily risen and are set to end the year up 9.5%, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset</a>. That's the biggest jump for earnings in six years, other than 2021's robust recovery. Analysts believe 2025 will be even better, with growth of nearly 15% in the cards.<div type="image" title="2024 earnings as of Q2" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984264" hostid="261" sizebytes="55446"></div>Business Insider spoke with six investment chiefs, strategists, and money managers about the earnings and economic trends to watch in the Q3 earnings season and 2025 — plus how investors can position their portfolios for success.<h2 id="cb45912e-0004-415b-94ba-d8fc7736b77e">Q3 earnings will give clues about consumers</h2>Barring a major surprise, investors will learn starting in mid-October that earnings rose for the fifth straight quarter. Profits grew 4.6% in Q3, <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://advantage.factset.com/hubfs/Website/Resources%20Section/Research%20Desk/Earnings%20Insight/EarningsInsight_092724.pdf">according to Factset's latest projections</a>, though that would be down substantially from the 7.8% mark that analysts called for at the end of June.However, analysts have a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/why-do-analysts-low-ball-earnings-forecasts">habit of underselling earnings</a>. Nearly 79% of S&amp;P 500 firms beat Q2 estimates — partially due to a low bar, though results were quite strong at 11.2% growth.<div type="image" title="Factset beat rate Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984261" hostid="261" sizebytes="37156"></div>"What we've seen over the past few quarters, I really wouldn't describe as 'blowout growth' that sets up for disappointment going forward," said Mike Reynolds, Glenmede's vice president of investment strategy. Mid-single-digit to low-double-digit growth is "pretty sustainable," he added.<div type="image" title="Factset Q2 2024" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984259" hostid="261" sizebytes="29018"></div>Profit margins will be in the crosshairs since <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-august-consumer-price-index-federal-reserve-rate-cuts-2024-9">inflation is slowing</a>, said Anthony Saglimbene, the chief market strategist at Ameriprise Financial. He's also keeping a close eye on signs about the strength of consumer spending, or lack thereof, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/inflation-wage-growth-investing-strategy-stocks-to-buy-goldman-sachs-2024-9">as wage growth dissipates</a>."There's been a lot of pricing power — not only in technology, but across a lot of the services and goods sides of the equation," Saglimbene said. "Can you hold profit margins in an environment where maybe your costs are becoming more stable, but demand is starting to slow?"Demand is either softening or steadfast, depending on your perspective. Joe Quinlan — who's head of markets strategy at Merrill and Private Bank, Bank of America — recently remarked that there's a strikingly wide gap between high-income households and those who aren't well off.The strategy chief recently wrote that a mere 4.4% of US households make up 15% of personal consumption, which is the <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DPCERE1Q156NBEA">backbone of GDP</a>. The rich are disproportionately driving economic growth because of the wealth effect, which means they're confident since stocks are rising. Meanwhile, Quinlan noted that <a target="_blank" href="https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx">roughly 40% of US households don't own stocks</a>."They're the ones — the lower-income households — definitely feeling the squeeze of higher prices. I know inflation has come down when we look at the metrics, but prices for food, rent, insurance — they're still elevated," Quinlan said, adding that this is limiting disposable income.Although weakness among lower-income households is troubling, strategists don't think it will show up in corporate earnings since consumers broadly are holding up."The consumer is pretty healthy," Reynolds said. "There's maybe some warning signs on the margin on credit-card balances and delinquencies, but it's really not enough to break the camel's back on earnings."<h2 id="e9ed5200-3a27-426c-b63a-a65a628a84e6">Why earnings will thrive in 2025</h2>Although investors have only seen about half of 2024 earnings, which are on track to rise 10%, it's already time to look to 2025."As the year continues, I do think it's not about earnings for this year — it's the trajectory of earnings for next year," said Andrew Slimmon, a lead portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management.<div type="image" title="Factset 2024 earnings" height="822" width="1424" msid="113984262" hostid="261" sizebytes="29164"></div>Corporate profits should stay strong and can potentially improve, strategists say, provided that the US economy doesn't slow too much."If the macroeconomic picture holds together, there's an expectation that we should see a bit of a re-acceleration in earnings growth," said Jim Baird, chief investment officer at Plante Moran Financial Advisors.Quinlan agrees and predicted that "earnings will reflect the dynamic and resiliency of the US economy that we just closed the quarter on."Michael Smith, the head of the growth equity team at Allspring Global Investments, said his research also indicates that companies are healthy, at least compared to a few years ago."We talk to our companies quite frequently and do our own work talking to their customers and suppliers, and we really feel like there are still some pockets of strong demand through our economy," Smith said.And even if economic growth comes in light, corporate earnings won't necessarily suffer."There's not always a one-for-one relationship between economic growth and earnings growth," Reynolds said. "You can still see earnings growth at a pretty robust level, even if economic growth moderates to some extent. So again, there's correlation there, but definitely not direct causation."Bears have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-outlook-valuations-1929-2000-hussman-2024-9">long warned that this market is overvalued</a>, but unless earnings suddenly plummet, Slimmon suggested that those fears are overstated."As long as Q3 of this year is OK, I think that's where we're going to start next year with close to $280 earnings estimates for the S&amp;P," Slimmon said. "And that is supportive of a stock market that trades kind of closer to 6,000."Analysts' estimates may be ambitious, Saglimbene said. He suspects that Q4 expectations will recede alongside projections for Q1 and Q2 of 2025, though that often happens before quarters."That could be a little bit of a headwind for the market," Saglimbene said. "But again, if we're growing and profits are growing year-over-year, I think the market will look past some of that."Saglimbene later added: "We might not grow by 15% next year in an environment where the economy's growing 2%, but we might grow 7% or 8%. That's a normal earnings growth kind of environment, and I think that's enough to continue to push the market higher."<h2 id="06369d93-53a3-422f-8a02-436b2da92292">3 top places to invest heading into Q3 earnings</h2>When asked which parts of the market look most attractive, strategists consistently identified three sectors: communication services, healthcare, and technology.Large-cap growth stocks have carried the market higher for years thanks to their supercharged earnings. But that has changed in recent months, Saglimbene noted.The strategy chief expects to see broader profit growth, especially in economically sensitive sectors like consumer discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, and real estate. They may also have more upside since they're cheaper."The areas that have not seen the best profit growth, like cyclicals outside of technology, their profit growth trends could actually improve more than expected because the economy is not headed for recession, because growth is remaining positive, because consumers are still spending," Saglimbene said.Smith agrees that industrials and consumer-focused sectors are worth a look, as are tech and healthcare companies. His investing strategy is centered around finding growth stocks on the so-called "right side of change" that also happen to be discounted. He said he's found more opportunities in small- and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-2025-mid-caps-investing-outlook-goldman-sachs-2024-9">mid-sized stocks</a> lately."Money has to find a home somewhere, and it tends to flow to where it gets treated the best," Smith said. "Right now, the relative opportunity is down-cap."

Here's how to invest in the Q3 earnings season as profits re-accelerate despite misplaced recession myths

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Big Tech companies are reporting earnings this week, and there's already one early winner: Nvidia.</li><li>Microsoft said it was spending big on buying tech to power its AI — tech made by Nvidia.</li></ul>A slew of Big Tech companies are reporting earnings this week, and already at least one clear winner has emerged: <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-jensen-huang-and-metas-mark-zuckerberg-swap-jackets-2024-7">Nvidia</a>.The chipmaker continues to reap the benefits of <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-big-tech-spending-on-ai-investments-2024-7">Big Tech's </a><a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-much-big-tech-spending-on-ai-investments-2024-7">large spending on artificial intelligence</a>. Nvidia makes a good chunk of the technology used to power AI.Tech giants are expected to be grilled on their AI spending in this week's earnings calls, and some already have been. In <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-investors-freaked-out-about-ai-spending-azure-growth-2024-7">Microsoft's earnings call</a> on Tuesday, for example, the first question in the Q&amp;A portion was on investments in generative AI — and whether they were paying off.Microsoft's capital expenditures in the fourth quarter, for instance, were $19 billion — of which about half went to central processing units, or CPUs, and graphics processing units, or GPUs. <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-gpu-targets-1-8-million-ai-chips-this-year-2024-4#:~:text=Microsoft%20is%20trying%20to%20make,GPUs%20it%20has%20in%202024">Microsoft has bought these CPUs and GPUs primarily from Nvidia</a>.<a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nvda-stock">Nvidia shares</a> were up more than 12% by midday Wednesday. Morgan Stanley analysts on Wednesday also <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nvidia-amd-semiconductor-chip-stock-gains-2q-earnings-reaction-outlook-2024-7?_gl=1*n0nouj*_ga*MTYxNTY4NDAzNC4xNjc3NjkzMjcy*_ga_E21CV80ZCZ*MTcyMjQ0MDQzNC4xNTk0LjEuMTcyMjQ0MzIwMi41NC4wLjA.">named Nvidia a top stock pick</a>.<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-alphabet">Meanwhile, Google's parent company, Alphabet,</a> earlier this month faced similar AI-related questions, with investors repeatedly <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alphabets-investors-want-data-ai-returns-no-one-has-answers-2024-7">pressing executives for specifics on returns on AI spending</a>.Meta, Amazon, and <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/apple">Apple</a> will likely get similar questions about their own AI bets in their earnings calls this week as Big Tech firms continue paying steeply for AI with little to show for it so far when it comes to revenue.Nvidia's stock had been drifting lower since the beginning of July, but it's bounced back after Microsoft's earnings — and its mention of big spend on processing units. CEO <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-jensen-huang-chipmaker-cofounder-ceo-wealth-net-worth-ai-2023-5">Jensen Huang's</a> company <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-impact-q1-earnings-season-ai-nvda-stock-price-capex-2024-5">was also a winner in last quarter's earnings season</a>.Mentions of "AI infrastructure" and "generative AI" were aplenty in last cycle's Big Tech earnings calls, and more than a few tech giants explicitly name-dropped Nvidia.<a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/mark-zuckerberg-ai-flex-meta-nvidia-gpus-2024-1">Meta in January said it would buy 350,000 H100 GPUs from Nvidia</a> this year. Microsoft, meanwhile, is <a target="_blank" rel="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-gpu-targets-1-8-million-ai-chips-this-year-2024-4">targeting 1.8 million GPUs</a> by the end of 2024, according to an internal document.

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Here's how to invest in the Q3 earnings season as profits re-accelerate despite misplaced recession myths

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