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<ul class="summary-list"><li><keyword id="12493068" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="home-builders" source="Orion">Home builders</keyword> can't find basic materials they need to complete the backlog of <keyword id="11964300" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="construction" source="Orion">construction</keyword> projects.</li><li>The NAHB claims that in 2021, more than 90% of builders reported delays and materials shortages.</li></ul>Home builders can't find basic materials like lumber or steel, which is delaying — and increasing the price of — the construction of <a href="https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2021/09/17/report-america-is-short-524m-homes">5.24 million homes</a> now needed to meet the demand of this year's buyers.Home Depot, and maybe even Congress, is here to save the day. The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) <a href="https://nahbnow.com/2021/06/record-number-of-builders-report-material-shortages/">says</a> that in 2021, more than 90% of builders reported delays and materials shortages. Plus, new taxes from the Biden administration have also driven prices higher. Amid historic-high demand for homes, retailers like <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/04/home-depot-to-speed-up-deliveries-with-new-distribution-centers.html">Home Depot</a> are investing billions to serve a market in crisis. Even with these investments, builders have become so concerened, they are seeking help from Congress. Home builders fear the bottleneck could make the crisis worse as demand doesn't seem to be slowing down anytime soon.In the cycle of supply and demand, this is bad news for buyers worried about continued bidding wars and a lack of options. Redfin says November <a href="https://www.redfin.com/news/november-new-low-for-home-inventory/">marked an all-time low </a>for available housing and predicts the number of available homes for sale will decline to historic levels in 2022. "The low inventory is driving up housing prices and reducing affordability across the nation," Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather told Insider. "When inventory is low, the market becomes more competitive, leading to bidding wars that drive up housing prices."<h1>Expensive materials mean expensive homes</h1>In November, the Biden administration slapped tariffs of nearly 18% on Canadian softwood lumber producers that import to the US, <a href="https://www.enr.com/articles/53119-us-doubles-tariffs-on-canadian-softwood-lumber-contractors-expect-higher-prices">doubling the rate</a> of the Trump administration. The US <a href="https://www.canada.ca/en.html">accounts for 75%</a> of the value of those exports from Canada, so economists <a href="https://www.nahb.org/~/media/NAHB/advocacy/docs/top-priorities/lumber/nahb-lumber-tariffs-letter-to-biden-120321">predict </a>additional costs and supply constraints. Random Lengths, an information center for the wood and products industry, confirms that as of December, the price of framing lumber <a href="https://www.randomlengths.com/Help/Price-Guide-Revisions/">jumped </a>$1,000 per thousand board feet, marking a 167% increase since late August. The CEO of Tata Steel, T.V. Narendran, <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2021/11/22/steel-prices-to-trend-higher-compared-to-the-last-10-years-tata-steel.html">told</a> CNBC that steel prices are expected to trend above $600 per ton in the coming years.In the meantime, lumber prices have <a href="https://nahbnow.com/2022/01/latest-wave-of-rising-lumber-prices-adds-more-than-18600-to-the-price-of-a-new-home/">nearly tripled</a> in the past four months, according to a study from the NAHB. The organization calculated that as a result, the price of an average new single-family home has climbed by more than $18,600 while nearly $7,300 has been added to the market value of the typical new multi-family home."Despite the increase in sales, <keyword id="11957056" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="housing-affordability" source="Orion">housing affordability</keyword> remains a major concern," said Danushka Nanyakkara-Skillington, NAHB assistant vice president of forecasting and analysis. "With building material pricing, the challenge for builders in 2022 will be to deal with higher input costs while making sure home prices remain within reach for American home buyers."<h1>Builders take their concerns to Congress and the private sector offers help</h1>NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke said that Congress can help get homes built faster. "Policymakers need to work on supply chain improvements and controlling costly <keyword id="11894140" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="inflation" source="Orion">inflation</keyword>," Fowke said. "Addressing lumber tariffs would be a good place to start."In 2021, NAHB CEO Jerry Howard and senior staff met with lawmakers from the Domestic Policy Council, National Economic Council, and the Office of the Vice President to discuss various concerns including, mill capacity issues, mill worker shortages, and housing affordability.While a resolution is yet to be made, Robert Dietz, NAHB's Chief Economist, says that policy makers will play a pivotal role in creating a solution. He added that "housing affordability fell to a decade-low during the third quarter of 2020, and as interest rates are expected to rise this year, housing affordability will be under additional pressure in 2022.""Inflation will be a top economic challenge for 2022 and 2023," Dietz told Insider. "While monetary policy will tighten, policymakers can also help fight inflationary pressures by improving supply-chains. Doing so will reduce costs, such as construction costs for new homes and apartments."In the meantime Home Depot plans to help builders get quicker and cheaper access to materials by investing as much as $1.2 billion in supply-chain facilities over the next five years."The professional contractors represents approximately 45% of our total sales," Home Depot told Insider. "Our pros sales growth outpaced our DIY customers in Q3 and pros continue to tell us that project demand is strong and their backlogs are robust and still growing."Backloags of unfinished building projects may be a good thing for Home Depot. Home builders and buyers, on the other hand, would prefer to have sufficient materials to get those projects completed quickly.Are you a homebuilder having trouble getting construction materials? Or a new homebuyer whose construction project is delayed? Reach out to this reporter at <a href="mailto:alloyd@insider.com" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer">alloyd@insider.com</a> to share your story.

Home builders are desperate for quick and inexpensive materials, so they're turning to Home Depot and Congress for help

Welcome back from the weekend. Stagflation, the dreaded combo of weak economic growth and high inflation, is on everyone's mind. People often point to the 1970s for comparison, but <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/commodities-shock-stagflation-fear-oil-prices-food-metals-1970s-bis-2022-5">here's how this time might be different</a>. New <keyword id="11894123" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="newsletter" source="Orion">newsletter</keyword> alert: If you dig this email, you'll love <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-on-wall-street">10 Things on Wall Street</a>, which will cover the biggest stories in banking, private equity, hedge funds, and fintech. Coming soon — <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-on-wall-street">sign up here.</a>If this was forwarded to you, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/10-things-opening-bell">sign up here</a>. Download Insider's app <a href="https://www.insider.com/app">here.</a><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/commodities-shock-stagflation-fear-oil-prices-food-metals-1970s-bis-2022-5"></a>1. Stagflation might look different this time around. The spike in the price of things like <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/rising-oil-prices-energy-crisis-investing-anas-alhajji-expert-2022-5">oil</a>, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/food-export-bans-inflation-wheat-oil-palm-beef-2022-5">wheat</a>, and many metals has been a big story during the pandemic, and has been exacerbated further by the war in Ukraine. These pricing pressures have sparked a wave of warnings that <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/commodities-shock-stagflation-fear-oil-prices-food-metals-1970s-bis-2022-5">inflation is here to stay right as economic growth is set to slow</a>. But according to the Bank of International Settlements, this time could look different compared to <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/didi-investors-vote-nyse-delisting-plan-clash-with-beijing-2022-5">the last notable era of stagflation</a>. "By some measures, recent events look even more disruptive than those of the 1970s," the report reads. "For example, recent price increases have affected a broader set of commodities. Commodity price rises in the 1970s were concentrated in oil <keyword id="11893875" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="markets" source="Orion">markets</keyword>, whereas in recent months energy, agricultural, commodity and metals prices have all experienced strong gains."But while these commodity shocks might be more severe, the outlook isn't totally grim, BIS said. For one, inflation is less severe than in the 1970s. Also, economies are less energy-intensive now. BIS estimated that the amount of energy consumed relative to GDP has fallen by around 40% since the late 1970s.Finally, central banks are better equipped to respond to crises than in the 1970s. For these reasons, <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/commodities-shock-stagflation-fear-oil-prices-food-metals-1970s-bis-2022-5">BIS says this crisis should be less intense than the 1970s</a>.In other news:<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stephen-roach-stagflation-base-case-markets-unprepared-fed-tightening-inflation-2022-5"></a><div type="image" title="Shoppers in the toy aisle at Target" height="2016" width="4032" msid="91743659" hostid="261"></div>2. US stock futures rise early Monday, after President Joe Biden said he would consider cutting the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-joe-biden-china-tariffs-yuan-dollar-bonds-2022-5">US tarriffs on Chinese imports imposed by the Trump administration</a>. Bitcoin also recovered to $30,000 over the weekend. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-today-joe-biden-china-tariffs-yuan-dollar-bonds-2022-5">Here are the latest market moves.</a>3. On deck today: Zoom Video Communications Inc., XPeng Inc. Advance Auto Parts Inc., <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/earnings-calendar">all reporting.</a>4. UBS has some stock picks if you're worried about stagflation. Strategists at the Swiss bank said that some names can still thrive in an environment of slow growth and high inflation. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stocks-to-buy-for-stagflation-inflation-low-growth-environment-ubs-2022-5">Check out the list of their 34 top picks. </a>5. China has ramped up its buying of Russian oil. The Russian ally is purchasing nearly 1.1 million barrels per day of discounted Russian crude. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/china-boosts-russian-oil-imports-nearly-50-percent-earlier-cut-2022-5">That's up from 750,000 barrels a day in the first quarter.</a> 6. Billionaire investors Stanley Druckenmiller is shorting the S&amp;P 500. His family office revealed in an SEC filing last week that it purchased thousands of put contracts on the SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stanley-druckenmiller-duquesne-stock-portfolio-sp500-index-put-options-energy-2022-5">Read about the bet here.</a> 7. Joe Biden announces major Asia economic deal. The Indo-Pacific Economic Framework is part of an effort to boost the US' economic leadership in the region — where China is one of the dominant countries. <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/23/us-announces-major-asia-economic-deal-in-effort-to-boost-profile-counter-china.html">Here's everything we know about the plan.</a>8. A top JPMorgan Private Bank strategist says the US will avoid recession. Tom Kennedy says that even as housing cools and rates rise, there is still a two-thirds chance the economy doesn't hit a downturn. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-risk-stock-market-outlook-housing-market-bubble-jpmorgan-strategist-2022-5">Here are his tips to position for 19% upside in stocks in this period.</a> 9. There's a case to be made for investing in real assets right now. That's according to Goldman Sachs, which says the asset class could be investors' way to weather inflation. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-why-commodities-have-more-room-to-run-up-gs-says-2022-5">Read the firm's top picks for real assets here.</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-theres-a-housing-shortage-not-enough-homes-high-prices-2022-5"></a><div type="image" title="Construction worker observing a house." height="3328" width="4437" msid="91743661" hostid="261"></div>10. There are two reasons the US has a housing shortage. The pandemic home-buying frenzy was a wild time for the US real estate market and highlighted the big imbalance of supply and demand for homes across the country. <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/why-theres-a-housing-shortage-not-enough-homes-high-prices-2022-5">Read why this is happening — and why it will be hard for conditions to improve.</a>Keep up with the latest markets news throughout your day by checking out <a href="https://link.chtbl.com/therefresh">The Refresh from Insider</a>, a dynamic audio news brief from the Insider newsroom. <a href="https://link.chtbl.com/therefresh">Listen here.</a>Curated by Max Adams in New York. (Feedback or tips? Email madams@insider.com) Edited by Hallam Bullock (tweet <a href="https://twitter.com/hallam_bullock">@hallam_bullock</a>) in London.

10 things before the opening bell

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">REUTERS/Denis BalibouseSalesforce co-founder and co-CEO Marc Benioff</div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/salesforce">Salesforce</a> and Chinese cloud giant <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/alibaba">Alibaba</a> announced a partnership that allows Salesforce to run its software on Alibaba's cloud and expand its business to Chinese customers.</li><li>Although the US and <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/china">China</a> are in the middle of a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/tech-cold-war">tech cold war</a> that has had a ripple effect on companies like Apple, analysts say Salesforce is less likely to be affected by these factors.</li><li>Analysts say that although some customers may be concerned about data privacy in China, it's overall a benefit for Salesforce, as right now it only has a small presence in <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/asia">Asia</a>.</li><li>"Whoever has success in China is likely to be a global winner as well," an analyst told Business Insider.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prime?module=article&amp;area=summary" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Read more BI Prime stories here</a>.</li></ul>In the midst of a tech cold war, Silicon Valley cloud giant Salesforce is officially entering the Chinese market.On Wednesday, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/salesforce-earnings-q1-2020-tech-cold-war-china-2019-6">Salesforce</a> and the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba <a href="https://www.salesforce.com/blog/2019/07/driving-customer-success-with-alibaba">announced a partnership</a> that will allow Alibaba to sell Salesforce's software to customers in China, Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan. Salesforce will run its software from Alibaba's cloud, satisfying China's strict rules around having data stored in the country. Analysts say this brings strong opportunities for both companies. While Alibaba is the biggest cloud provider in China, it doesn't offer customer relationship management software. A team-up with Salesforce gives it that capability for the first time. As for Salesforce, it gives it a much stronger toehold in Asia - just 10% of its revenue came from the Asia Pacific market last quarter. "Historically, Salesforce hadn't had many options," Liz Herbert, vice president and principal analyst at Forrester Research, told Business Insider. "Of course, China is a part of the world that represents a lot of spend. It's a very attractive part of the world for many corporations and across many industries."<h2>Tech cold war with China</h2>It can be difficult for companies to do business in China, where law requires that data be kept within the country's own borders. Therefore, it's common practice for any company wishing to enter the Chinese market to find a local partner: <a href="https://news.microsoft.com/apac/2019/05/21/bittitan-and-21vianet-blue-cloud-expand-partnership-to-meet-office-365-growth-in-china/">Microsoft partners with Chinese provider 21Vianet Blue Cloud</a> to provide Office 365 and other cloud products in the country, for example. Indeed, analyst firm <a href="https://blogs.gartner.com/olive-huang/open-sesame-can-alibaba-open-door-chinese-market-salesforce/">Gartner estimates</a> that by 2021, 80% of businesses that sell products and services in China will need to work with local security firms to make sure that they're in compliance with these regulations. Olive Huang, vice president and analyst at Gartner, says Salesforce's partnership with Alibaba is just another example of this kind of partnership. "When this legislation, it gave Salesforce no choice," Huang told Business Insider. "If they want to continue to serve their multinational clients, they have to buy a solution to have data local residency in China."This also helps multinational companies that use Salesforce across their workforce, and want to expand that use into China, Huang says. Salesforce is also unlikely to be affected <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-blasts-apple-request-for-mac-pro-tariff-exemption-2019-7">by any tariffs</a> that the Trump administration places on trade with China. While Apple is at risk of being slapped with such tarriffs because it sells hardware that's manufactured by factories in China, Salesforce is selling software and nothing but. Read more: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/salesforce-earnings-q1-2020-tech-cold-war-china-2019-6">Despite the tech Cold War with China, Wall Street says Salesforce is in a strong position and will see little impact</a>"They're not making a phone. They're not making a physical product," Herbert said. Daniel Elman, an analyst at Nucleus Research, says that one risk is some customers may be concerned about Salesforce's involvement in China, given that the country's government has been <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/syria-saudi-nk-support-china-uighur-prison-camps-xinjiang-2019-7">accused of human rights abuses</a> and criticized for its <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-blocks-microsofts-bing-online-censorship-2019-1">censorship of the internet</a>."With the trade war and everything, it's kind of a sticky subject," Elman said. "It may not go so great, especially with concerns about privacy and data management, especially given that Salesforce and their company line about how they care so much for trust and transparency."<h2>'A global winner'</h2>Still, Elman believes the benefits outweigh the risks, as it's a massive opportunity for Salesforce to grow its business in China. And with Alibaba as the leading cloud company in China, this aligns with Salesforce's strategy to expand globally."Its market in Asia is not big at all," Elman told Business Insider. "This is an opportunity for them to grow it."Penny Gillespie, VP and analyst at Gartner, even says there's a "big risk" in not doing business in China."Whoever has success in China is likely to be a global winner as well," Gillespie told Business Insider. "It clearly aligns with Salesforce's cloud strategy."Overall, analysts say that Salesforce's partnership with Alibaba is also a sign of consolidation, as major tech companies bunker down with each other to form mutually beneficial alliances. "This is a sign we're starting to see a clustering of larger tech companies," Herbert said. "You are starting to see the formulation of these tighter alliances. This is an example on the Salesforce side of that."Get the latest Alibaba stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/baba-Quote"> here.</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/what-el-chapo-joaquin-guzman-really-like-cartel-wives-2017-10">What El Chapo is really like, according to the wife of one his closest henchman</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

Salesforce is entering the Chinese market amid the tech cold war, and experts say it's a smart move: 'Whoever has success in China is likely to be a global winner as well'

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image"></div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>PC shipments were stronger than expected in the second quarter due to a corporate refresh cycle and the resolution of Intel's production issues.</li><li>The uptick was also due to fears that Trump might impose new tariffs on China, which prompted PC makers to build more PCs ahead of time, according to analysts.</li><li>Stronger PC shipments may have given boost Intel and AMD, which are both set to report results. But despite the temporary gain, the chip giants are still wrestling with soft demand for datacenter chips.</li><li>Another winner appears to be Microsoft, which said that its Windows business has benefitted from manufacturers building more PCs ahead of potential tarriffs. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prime?module=article&amp;area=summary">Click here for more BI Prime stories.</a></li></ul>The PC market, which has been in steady decline in the last few years, has become an unexpected winner in the tech Cold War with China - at least temporarily. And this is good news for PC chipmakers Intel and AMD, which are set to report results in the next two weeks, just as it was good news for Microsoft when it <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-earnings-q4-fy-2019-7">reported its results last week</a>. Both semiconductor giants have been focused more heavily on revenue from datacenter chips, but some analysts think they got a rare lift from what had been the sagging PC market.<h2>A shrinking PC market </h2>PC shipments, which includes desktops and notebooks, have been sliding yearly over the last five years, and are expected to total 254 million in 2019, down about 18% from 2014, according to IDC.But the second quarter saw 64.9 million PCs shipped, up 5% from the year-ago period, and "notably higher than expected," IDC said. One reason for the uptick is the upcoming end of support for business PCs running Windows 7 which is expected to spark a spike in demand for new systems running Windows 10 in the corporate world. Another is that Intel, the world's leading PC chipmaker, was able to resolve key production issues that had constrained supply recently.Jitesh Ubrani, an IDC research, said in a report that "supply for Intel's processors improved markedly during the quarter, allowing most PC vendors to fulfill old orders while also shipping a healthy supply of new PCs into the channels."<h2>Trump tariff fears</h2>But analysts point to another potential reason: worries of another round of Trump Administration tariffs, which sent manufacturers scrambling to build PCs ahead of time before component prices go up. US/China trade tensions escalated in May when the Trump Administration blacklisted Chinese tech powerhouse Huawei and imposed new tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump's trade team was getting ready for<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-china-trade-war-trump-trade-team-to-visit-shanghai-2019-7-1028377573"> new talks in Shanghai </a>next week, but fears of more tariffs have remained."The threat of increased tariffs led some PC makers to ship a surplus of desktops and notebooks, thereby artificially propping up the PC market during the second quarter," IDC research manager Jitesh Ubrani said in a note.Mizuho Group analyst Vijay Rakesh also told clients in a note that he sees shipments "trending significantly stronger" in the second quarter, which he said was likely due to "better commercial PC shipments and a pull-in from the September quarter on fear of a 25% tariff."Wedbush analyst Matthew Bryson also cited "uncertainty around tariffs" that led to "some pull in" of PCs that were expected to be shipped in the second half of the year. Microsoft, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-microsoft-results/microsoft-shares-hit-record-highs-powered-by-growing-cloud-sales-idUSKCN1UD2Y2">which reported results last week,</a> also said its PC division got a boost from a wave of Windows 7 upgrades and PC makers building up inventory ahead of possible tariffs.<h2>A temporary gain</h2>Unfortunately for Intel and AMD the unexpected second-quarter gain in PCs probably means a more downbeat results for the rest of the year, analysts said.Rakesh wrote that the PC shipments uptick "ahead of China tariff could be a 2H [second half of the year] drag." Bryson of Wedbush echoed that view, saying "these better PC numbers come at the expense of" revenues in the second half of 2019.Meanwhile, Intel, AMD and another chip giant, Nvidia, continue to wrestle with the uncertainty in the market for chips that power data centers. In April, Intel reported a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/intel-data-center-business-growth-rockier-than-expected-2019-4">weaker-than-expected 2019 revenue target,</a> largely due to downbeat expectations from the data center market.Weakening demand in <keyword id="6356323" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="enterprise">enterprise</keyword> data center demand has been a major problem for Intel, which is set to report after the market closes on Thursday. Intel's data center business will not likely offset "lighter PC shipments" in the second half of the year, Bryson of Wedbush wrote.Rakesh said he does not expect a meaningful rebound in data center spending in the second half of the year which means that "combined with slower PCs and competitive Intel pricing" could limit any upside for AMD, which is scheduled to report on July 30.Got a tip about Intel, AMD or another tech company? Contact this reporter via email at bpimentel@businessinsider.com, message him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/troywolv/">@benpimentel</a>. You can also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-tip-business-insider-securely-guide-signal-securedrop-2017-6">contact Business Insider securely via SecureDrop</a>. Get the latest Intel stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/intc-Quote"> here.</a>

The PC industry got a big, temporary boost from fears that Trump will impose tariffs on China - and it's good news for Intel, AMD, and Microsoft

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">SAPAdair Fox-Martin is an SAP exec team member</div></div></div><ul class="summary-list"><li>Adair Fox-Martin, an SAP executive board member who is in charge of the software giant's global operations, says she has seen up-close the impact of the rising global uncertainty and the US-China trade war.</li><li>"In some markets, particularly in China, the customers are in a wait-and-see mode," she told Business Insider. "I have been working with some customers there who are all literally unpacking their supply chain."</li><li>Fox-Martin is one of two women on the SAP leadership team. A former school teacher in England, she has spent the last 30 years as one of the top executives in the <keyword id="6356323" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="100" keywordseo="enterprise">enterprise</keyword> software industry.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/prime?module=article&amp;area=summary">Click here for more BI Prime stories.</a></li></ul>As part of SAP's leadership, Adair Fox-Martin is in charge of the German business software behemoth's global operations, covering more than 430,000 customers in 71 countries.And in that role, she says, she's seen up-close the fallout from the rising global market uncertainty, which has grown even murkier with the escalation of the US-China trade war."I will definitely tell you that, in some markets, particularly in China, the customers are in a wait-and-see mode," she told Business Insider. "I have been working with some customers there who are all literally unpacking their supply chain."Unpacking a supply chain essentially means reorganizing the way the business procures materials it needs for its goods and services, including making sure they arrive in time. With the threat of tarriffs looming, companies are reassessing their supply chains - even <a href="https://www.theverge.com/2019/8/28/20836524/google-pixel-3a-production-china-nokia-factory-vietnam-trade-war-tariffs">Google is said to be moving production of its Pixel phones from China to Vietnam</a>, even as promised tarrifs loom closer to coming into effect.The uncertainty is Fox-Martin's top worry these days. She plays a particularly key role at SAP, the top seller of software used by businesses to manage their operations. Fox-Martin has extensive international experience, having spent nearly two decades selling enterprise software in Asia.<h2>Trade war is forcing businesses to move supply chains.</h2>This was underscored recently on SAP's earnings call in July when CEO Bill McDermott pointed to "minor headwinds in Asia due to trade uncertainties which did postpone some deals.""We didn't get everything we wanted in Asia," he told analysts. "What you're seeing in this environment is there are a lot of companies that were manufacturing things in China that are actually moving supply chains and manufacturing facilities to alternative locations." McDermott then turned to Fox-Martin for a broader view of the situation."The supply chain impact was significant on our China business," she told analysts. "But we've got to remember we've been in Asia-Pacific Japan for 30 years now."It's a history she's familiar with. Fox-Martin was a top enterprise software executive in that part of the world for nearly two decades, with two of the biggest players in that space: SAP and with the German tech giant's archrival, Oracle.<h2>Fox-Martin was a schoolteacher who stumbled upon a tech career.</h2>Fox-Martin had embarked on a tech career by accident. Born and raised to a working class family in Ireland, Fox-Martin studied arts, English and history at Trinity College in Dublin. Ireland was going through tough economic times when she graduated. "There were no jobs," she said.She moved to England where she found work as a schoolteacher. She was set to pursue that career when a friend told her that Oracle was looking to hire English teachers who could be retrained as training consultants for a new programming language.She got the job and worked for Oracle for 18 years, mainly in the Asia Pacific. In 2008, she joined SAP where she rose to become chief operating officer, and then president of the company's Asia Pacific operation. In 2017, she was named to the company's executive board. Fox-Martin is only one of two women in SAP's top leadership."I've worked in almost every line of business in a software company, which has given me a huge depth of understanding of how all the pieces come together," she said.She joined SAP's leadership at a time when the enterprise software industry has been undergoing a major shift. SAP still dominates the enterprise resource planning software market, with 28.2% of the $28.6 billion market, according to IDC's 2018 data. Oracle was second with 19.3%.<h2>SAP pivots to the cloud</h2>But the rise of cloud computing has led to a dramatic change. Instead of paying license and maintenance fees for software installed in private data centers, businesses are accessing applications as web-based service. The trend has dramatically cut IT costs allowing businesses, in many cases, to abandon on-premise data centers.This has been a disruptive change for traditional software vendors, like SAP and Oracle, which now find themselves competing with so-called software-as-a-service rivals, such as Salesforce and Workday."For sure, SAP is a company that is transforming," Fox-Martin said. "I think we're at the tailend of that process in terms of the transformation of our business to the cloud."She said SAP is looking to triple its cloud revenue to $15 billion a year by 2023.In the short term, her focus is on an increasingly precarious global economy.US-China trade tensions escalated recently with a new round of tariffs, although <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-says-china-trade-talks-to-happen-before-tariff-escalation-2019-8-1028485219">President Trump on Thursday</a> that the two nations were scheduled to hold discussions."We're living in a time of tremendous change and uncertainty," she said. "The macroeconomic environment right now is very unpredictable. From one day to the next, we're not really quite sure what's going to happen, what's going to change. You have to be able to pivot with your customers in order to address these changes."Got a tip about SAP or another tech company? Contact this reporter via email at bpimentel@businessinsider.com, message him on Twitter <a href="https://twitter.com/benpimentel">@benpimentel</a>. You can also <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-tip-business-insider-securely-guide-signal-securedrop-2017-6">contact Business Insider securely via SecureDrop</a>. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/megyn-kelly-details-sexually-harassed-roger-ailes-fox-news-2017-11">Megyn Kelly details how she was allegedly sexually harassed by Roger Ailes, then advised to 'just steer clear of him'</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

SAP's global operations boss says that the US/China trade war is causing so much uncertainty, companies are reassessing their entire supply chains

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">Charles McQuillan / GettyA bus crossing along the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland.</div></div></div><ul><li>Theresa May's proposals for a frictionless border in Ireland are a "pipe-dream" and would create significant friction between Northern Ireland and Ireland, former senior UK diplomat Lord David Hannay has warned.</li><li>Theresa May is reportedly set to cave to pressure from Cabinet Brexiteers to push for a "max-fac" customs proposal which critics say is untested and would create significant friction in Ireland.</li><li>Lord Hannay, a crossbench peer, said MPs could vote in favour of customs union membership to avoid a "horrendous" situation in Ireland.</li><li>"A lot of people, very reasonably, are really worried by the forces that have been unleashed by the referendum vote, in so far as the Irish settlement and the Good Friday Agreement is concerned," he said.</li></ul> LONDON - Theresa May's proposals to avoid a hard Brexit border with Ireland are a "pipe-dream" which risk creating a "horrendous situation" for the peace process in Northern Ireland, a former senior UK diplomat has said.Lord David Hannay, a crossbench peer and former UK ambassador to Europe and the UN, told Business Insider that both customs proposals being pushed Theresa May - known as "max fac" and the "customs partnership" - would not create a frictionless border in Ireland, but would instead endanger the Good Friday Agreement which has brought relative stability to the border region."Max fac [...] is not going to produce frictionless trade," said Lord Hannay.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Reuters / Jeff Christensen</div></div></div>"It's going to produce trade with friction. The amount of friction is the subject of negotiation, but the clear assumption is that British producers of goods will have less access to the market than they have now."He said the suggestion the "customs partnership" proposal would create frictionless trade was a "pipedream.""You're setting up a huge amount of friction which will be damaging to British exporters," he said.Theresa May is trying to solve two problems at once: Avoiding a hard border between Northern Ireland and Ireland while leaving the customs union in order to strike trade deals outside the EU.To that end, she and her Brexit negotiating team have come up with two proposals. The first, the "customs partnership," would involve the UK collecting EU tarriffs on goods passing through Britain, but it was shot down by Cabinet Brexiteers on Friday, who said it was too similar to current EU arrangements.That means May is reportedly leaning towards the "max-fac," or maximum facilitation, option, would rely on new technologies and trusted trader schemes to remove the need for physical customs checks. The scheme is entirely untested and critics say it would create a significant amount of friction at the border in the forms of checks, delays, and infrastructure.The seemingly intractable problem of the Irish border had changed parliamentary arithmetic in the House of Commons "quite a lot" in favour of customs union membership, Lord Hannay suggested, with MPs set to vote on the issue thanks to a House of Lords amendment to the EU Withdrawal Bill passed last week.While membership of the customs union would not solve the need for customs regulation, because Northern Ireland and Ireland would need to be aligned on key regulatory issues which are more closely related to the European single market, it would go some way to addressing the need for certain kinds of infrastructure at the border."Northern Ireland is a tragic case," he said."The history of British politicians either ignoring or disregarding the consequences of their actions for Northern Ireland goes back hundreds of years."A lot of people, very reasonably, are really worried by the forces that have been unleashed by the referendum vote, in so far as the Irish settlement and the Good Friday Agreement is concerned."They are right to be. I think it is a horrendous situation that could arise if a majority in our parliament were to say, 'To hell with the Irish problem, we're going to go ahead, because that's what a fairly narrow majority of people voted for in June 2016.'"That would be the height of irresponsibility. That fact is rather beginning to dawn on people now." <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/timothy-snyder-russia-not-as-strong-as-you-think-2018-4">Why Russia may not be as strong as most people think</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

Theresa May's Irish border plans are a 'pipe-dream' which could wreck peace in Northern Ireland

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table"><div><div class="image on-image">AP</div></div></div><ul><li>The US will not allow Alibaba to purchase US money transfer company, MoneyGram, and China's not happy about it.</li><li>This spat kicks off what could be a contentious few months for US-China economic relations.</li><li>In the coming months, The White House has to make a bunch of decisions about tariffs on solar panels, washing machines and more that could make relations worse. </li></ul> A mysterious US government panel has blocked the sale of the money-transfer company <a href="https://www.reuters.com/article/us-moneygram-intl-m-a-ant-financial/u-s-blocks-moneygram-sale-to-chinas-ant-financial-on-national-security-concerns-idUSKBN1ER1R7">MoneyGram International</a> to China's ecommerce giant, <a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/BABA-Quote">Alibaba</a>.And by the sounds of it, this is not sitting well with the Chinese government. <a href="http://www.xinhuanet.com/english/2018-01/03/c_136869280.htm">A state-media editorial</a> following the announcement accused the US of starting an already contentious year for trade on an aggressive footing, and taking a "hawkish turn" which became "ear-piercing" in December after the Trump administration made economic aggression against China a major part of its national security platform."China and the United States are about to ride a bumpy journey in trade in 2018 if the U.S. government goes it own way, and retaliatory measures by China could be on the table," state-run Xinhua warned.Indeed, this spat raises the curtain on numerous delicate negotiations and key decisions coming for US-China relations over the next few weeks. A fight over Alibaba, a company that means a lot to China's national pride, wasn't even on the table.But things have changed.<h1 style="text-align: justify;">CIFIUS</h1>First the spat at hand. To purchase MoneyGram, a US company, Alibaba had to do what dozens of companies have done before it - get approval from the Treasury Department's Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States, CIFIUS.CIFIUS determines whether or not the sale of a company would have a material impact on national security or the US economy. During the Trump administration, the definition of "national security" has been expanded to include everything from semiconductors to now, money-transfer companies. Even companies belonging to China's golden business billionaire, Jack Ma.In fact, the Trump administration has been making companies reapply, and put up a bunch of hurdles for people that never expected them. One of them is former White House press secretary Anthony Scaramucci. The sale of his financial firm, SkyBridge, is still languishing in wait for approval for a sale to <a href="https://t.co/aGYUS5JYgH">beleaguered Chinese conglomerate HNA.</a>It's not looking good.At the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/china-warning-trump-on-trade-2017-8?utm_source=feedburner&amp;%3Butm_medium=referral&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+businessinsider+%28Business+Insider%29">beginning of last year,beginning of last year,</a> China laid out a bunch of sacrosanct national security and trade issues to the Trump administration. CFIUS was not among them.<h1>Flex if you want to</h1>The issues that were (and have been) on China's radar were more than enough to strain relations without an Alibaba insult."In the last 30 days of 2017, the U.S. government launched a Section 301 investigation into Chinese intellectual property and technology transfer, self-initiated probes into Chinese-made aluminum products, and rejected China's market economy status at the World Trade Organization," the Xinhua editorial said.Talk to anyone in Washington working on trade and they'll tell you that this stuff - resurrecting arcane, aggressive trade laws and and ignoring the World Trade Organization whenever convenient - makes Trump happy. He genuinely believes in disrupting the global trade order and punishing China. That makes what's coming over the next few weeks that much more dangerous.<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">US Department of Commerce</div></div></div>In January, Trump has to decide whether or not to put up tariffs against foreign solar panels and washing machines. After that he must decide whether or not to slap tarriffs on foreign steel and aluminum, declaring any threat to US companies in those industries a threat to US national security. This won't just upset the Chinese, expect the Europeans, Brazilians and Canadians to have a lot to say about it too.Inside the White House, <a href="https://www.axios.com/cohn-and-mnuchins-plan-to-stop-trumps-trade-war-2521336736.html">Axios reports, </a>trade hawks like US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and adviser Peter Navarro have the president's heart and ear.But Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and adviser Gary Cohn are trying to tell Trump that aggressive action against China could hurt the stock market (of which Trump is so proud) and erase the gains made by the GOP's tax cut. Get the latest Alibaba stock price<a href="http://markets.businessinsider.com/stock/baba-Quote"> here.</a> <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/nuclear-bomb-launch-procedure-us-government-president-2017-11">Here's how easy it is for the US president to launch a nuclear weapon</a></h3> <div> </div> </div>

China isn't taking Alibaba's latest rejection very well

<div class="KonaFilter image-container display-table float_right"><div><div class="image on-image">Thomson ReutersTrump holds a rally at Clemson University's livestock arena in Pendleton</div></div></div>On Tuesday, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump <a href="http://www.techinsider.io/donald-trump-ill-make-apple-build-in-the-us-2016-1">repeated</a> an unlikely position he's been staking for the past month: He wants Apple to build its iPhones in the United States. "I'm going to bring jobs back. I'm going to get Apple to start making their computers and their iPhones on our land, not in China," Trump <a href="http://time.com/4245134/super-tuesday-donald-trump-victory-speech-transcript-full-text/">said</a>."How does it help us when they make it in China?"Made-in-USA iPhones have come up before, most notably when President Barack Obama asked then-CEO Steve Jobs the same question <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html?_r=1&amp;ref=charlesduhigg&amp;pagewanted=all">during a private dinner in Silicon Valley in 2011</a>. Turns out, Apple's already considered the possibility, and has concluded that it's not a viable option. Here's why:<ul><li>If Apple were to assemble iPhones in the US, it would create huge logistical challenges. An iPhone is actually an assembly of hundreds of different individual components, such as chips, batteries, camera modules, and other tiny bits. 90% of these parts are manufactured outside the United States, and the vast majority of these components are made in East Asia. For example, if one supplier didn't work out, and Apple had to wait weeks for a replacement to ship to the US from China, it could push a launch date back by weeks.</li><li>Chinese workers are better trained in manufacturing skills than American workers. As CEO Tim Cook said <a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/60-minutes-apple-tim-cook-charlie-rose/">during an interview on 60 Minutes</a>, "China put an enormous focus on manufacturing... I mean, you can take every tool and die maker in the United States and probably put them in a room that we're currently sitting in. In China, you would have to have multiple football fields."</li><li>Chinese factories are generally more nimble than American factories. For example, most supplier employees live in dorms close to the factory, so if there's a last-minute change, work can begin immediately - even in the dead of night. An Apple executive <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/22/business/apple-america-and-a-squeezed-middle-class.html?_r=1&amp;ref=charlesduhigg&amp;pagewanted=all">told the New York Times</a> that when it comes to Chinese manufacturing, the "speed and flexibility is breathtaking" and that there's "no American plant that can match that."</li><li>In Chinese factories, overtime is standard. While workers can only legally put in 60 hour weeks without special dispensation, a large proportion <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-rights-group-says-low-pay-and-long-hours-at-chinese-iphone-factory-2016-2">go above and beyond</a> - which has landed Apple in hot water with activist groups. </li><li>And those workers often make far less than they would in the United States. According to a <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/labor-rights-group-says-low-pay-and-long-hours-at-chinese-iphone-factory-2016-2">study done at Pegatron</a>, one of the two primary iPhone assembly plants, the average monthly wage, including overtime, comes out to $756.</li><li>If Apple were to build an iPhone in the United States, it could add as much as $50 to the final price, <a href="http://motherboard.vice.com/read/how-much-would-donald-trumps-american-made-iphone-actually-cost">analysts told Motherboard</a>. </li><li>Essentially, the people, facilities, and other businesses that comprise the computer manufacturing ecosystem are completely based in China at this point. </li></ul>Of course, it's also not clear how Trump would make Apple move its production to the United States. He's previously suggested a 45% tarriff on Chinese imports, but if that were actually implemented, it would affect far more businesses than just Apple.A better way to get Apple to bring some of its manufacturing back to the US would be to give it tax breaks. Apple has nearly $200 billion it keeps overseas, and it faces a 35% tax rate if it were to bring it back to the US. In fact, the tax issue is the number one issue Apple <a href="https://www.opensecrets.org/lobby/clientsum.php?id=D000021754">lobbies for in Washington DC</a>, and Cook has testified before Congress asking for a "simplification" of corporate tax laws.Apple has signaled willingness to invest in regions as part of a tax deal. For example, earlier this year, shortly after settled a tax issue in Italy, Apple <a href="http://www.apple.com/pr/library/2016/01/21Apple-Opening-Europes-First-iOS-App-Development-Center-in-Italy.html">announced</a> that it would be building "Europe's first iOS app development center" in the country. One Apple computer is currently assembled in the U.S.: the Mac Pro, a pricey computer that starts at $2999, and is assembled in Texas by Flextronics - which has received millions in tax breaks from Texas in exchange for creating jobs. Ultimately, Trump's rhetoric belies a lack of understanding about how global supply chains work, and specifically, how computers get produced. But the made-in-USA iPhone might just be a talking point - Trump has said that his stances aren't necessarily policy positions he would carry out, but are starting points for negotiation. For example, despite the fact that Trump has called for an boycott of Apple over its recent skirmish with the FBI, he's still tweeting using an iPhone. <div class="margin-top"> <h3>NOW WATCH: <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/view-amazon-lifetime-order-history-2016-2">Here's how to see how much you've spent on Amazon in your lifetime</a></h3> <div> <div> <div class="ooyala-video-player" data-video-autoplay="false" data-video-id="85Z3c4MTE63ILItwGAW-Hn2RKesYMYyc" data-player-variable="ooyalapopvideo" id="ooyalaplayer_popvideo" style="width:1280px;height:720px"></div> </div> </div> </div>

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