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<keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> are currently making a beeline for <keyword id="19894886" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="China" source="keywords">China</keyword>, enthused by the gush of <keyword id="23496485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="financial-stimulus" source="keywords">financial stimulus</keyword> injected by the government into the Chinese economy. While this may have temporarily sent their stock markets soaring, a recent report by the <keyword id="19899824" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="World-Bank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="World Bank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="World Bank">World Bank</keyword> notes that this might not be enough to push back the <keyword id="19904090" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-slowdown" source="keywords">economic slowdown</keyword> that has already set in. China's growth rate is projected to slack further to 4.3% in 2025, down from its present rate of 4.8%. The <keyword id="19916574" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="OECD" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="OECD" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="OECD">OECD</keyword> also expects the country's growth to slow down to 4.5% in 2025 Experts believe that the recent economic push by the government, which includes lowering reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by 0.5% to 6.6%, lowering mortgage rates, injecting $142 billion into banks, among others, are too little to sustain long-term recovery. Notably, lowering RRR frees up $140 billion for banks to lend, while reducing mortgages and minimum down payments for housing purchases are directed to spur up the Chinese real estate segment. Per <keyword id="19906485" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Goldman-Sachs" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Goldman Sachs" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Goldman Sachs">Goldman Sachs</keyword>, weak domestic demand, dwindling consumer confidence and spending and an endless real-estate crisis are some of the main reasons for the slowdown.The average Chinese citizen still grapples with job insecurity, stagnant salaries, and depreciating real estate and equity values. For instance, China's last public holiday of the year, the Golden Week, which ended on October 7 and commemorates the nation's founding, saw 2% less spending per domestic trip, as compared to pre-pandemic levels. "Low tourism spending per head and subdued services prices highlight the still weak domestic demand and continued consumption downgrading in the country,” the analysts at GS noted. <h2>Its all temporary</h2>The <keyword id="21360606" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Hang-Seng-index" source="keywords">Hang Seng index</keyword>, which is up by 4.22% today, has been seeing a meteoric rise over the past few weeks. Inching up by a little over 24% over the last month, the Chinese markets have been seeing an significant influx of foreign investment, largely at the expense of other emerging markets like India. Foreign investors had offloaded shares worth Rs 27,142 crore between the first and third of this month, after foreign investments reached a staggering record-high of Rs 93,538 crore in September, as per NSDL data. Over the last 10 days, FIIs have constantly been net sellers, while DIIs have been net buyers. As of October 10th, DII (Domestic Institutional Investors) have put in Rs 50,183 crores in Indian markets, almost balancing out Rs 49,305.29 crore withdrawn by foreign investors. But whether this trend of FII inflow in China continues will largely depend on the fundamentals their economy, an area where India has an edge, thanks to strong confidence of domestic investors. Viram Shah, CEO of Vested Finance highlights that while the Hang Seng index's recent 26% surge over the last month has caught investors' attention, and while this bullish trend is expected to continue, driven by low Chinese stock valuations and hopes for economic improvement from government stimulus, there lies a long road ahead. "Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) pulled out $5.4 billion from Indian equities over five consecutive sessions, ending Monday, October 7. While this suggests a possible rotation of funds from India to China, how long this shift will last will depend on the Chinese government’s ability to resolve the structural economic issues. While the market rally is encouraging, more policy steps are needed to boost economic activity and confidence in China", he added.

All eyes on China: Rush of foreign investors can do little to stave off a slowdown, says World Bank

<ul class="summary-list"><li>This post originally appeared in the Insider Today newsletter.</li></ul>Hello there! Prime Day is officially here, and we've got a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/guides/deals/best-prime-day-deals-big-deal-days-2024-10">rundown on all the deals worth checking out</a>.In today's big story, another hurricane <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">is set to hit Florida this week</a>, threatening a real-estate market already on edge.What's on deck:<ul><li>Markets: China's <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10">stock rally fizzles</a> as lack of fresh fiscal stimulus disappoints investors.</li><li>Tech: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-robotaxi-day-tesla-robotics-ai-2024-10">Elon Musk's robotaxi pitch</a> this week could decide Tesla's future.</li><li>Business: <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-jeff-smith-starboard-value-hedge-fund-investor-pfizer-2024-10">Meet Jeff Smith</a>, the hedge-fund investor taking on Pfizer.</li></ul>But first, when it rains, it pours.If this was forwarded to you, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/subscription/newsletter/insider-today">sign up here.</a><h3 id="7fa5f018-5b05-4a37-a8dc-d3f89138bcb3">The big story</h3><h2 id="5fd547b9-ec52-41fc-8e08-4f4b27dd8097">Hurricane (part 2)</h2><div type="image" title="Hurricane Helene" height="1334" width="2000" msid="114050793" hostid="261" sizebytes="123164"></div>Another hurricane is expected to hit Florida as the state continues recovering from Hurricane Helene.Hurricane Milton, a Category 4 storm (it weakened from a Category 5, but remains "extremely dangerous"), is on track <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-category-five-threatens-florida-fema-funding-2024-10">to make landfall near Tampa Bay by Wednesday</a>. It's the latest hurdle for the state's volatile real-estate market.Milton's peak wind speeds hit 160 mph on Monday. Heavy rain is expected before the storm arrives, and flooding is anticipated throughout the region. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has issued a state of emergency for 51 counties, and mandatory evacuations have begun in some areas. The mayor of Tampa, Jane Castor, has also issued a stark warning that <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/hurricane-milton-tampa-mayor-castor-evacuation-orders-die-warning-helene-2024-10">anyone who remains in the city as Milton approaches will "die."</a>It's never a good time for a hurricane to hit, but preparing for a powerful storm while you recover from another makes the situation even more challenging.Helene caused over 220 deaths and as much as $34 billion in damage, according to an estimate from Moody's Analytics. Meanwhile, federal agencies meant to provide emergency assistance, like FEMA and the Small Business Administration, face their own cash crises.<div type="image" title="Hurricane Helene" height="1334" width="2000" msid="114050795" hostid="261" sizebytes="707320"></div>Back-to-back hurricanes represent the latest problem for a real-estate market facing buyer's remorse.The threat and cost that hurricanes pose mean Florida homeowners have some reevaluating to do <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-real-estate-worth-it-home-prices-insurance-hurricane-helene-2024-10">if they want to remain in the state</a>, write Business Insider's Jordan Pandy, Dan Latu, and Madeline Berg.One homeowner told BI she pays $7,000 a year in flood and hazard insurance for her 1,400-square-foot bungalow just south of Tampa. (The policies paid off, her home was deemed uninhabitable after Helene, and she still wants to live there after it's repaired.)But those high costs, coupled with the annual fear of potentially losing your home every fall, have other residents throwing in the towel. Even a few insurers have <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-condo-owners-prices-drop-insurance-hoa-taxes-increase-2023-3">called it quits on the state</a>, while others could increase their prices by over 300% in the coming years.It's representative of the extremes the Sunshine State's real-estate market has faced in recent years. One of the pandemic's hottest markets, some people are now souring on Florida over its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/florida-housing-market-sales-weather-climate-change-retirement-pandemic-costs-2024-9">climate, costs, and overcrowding</a>. (It's not alone in its post-pandemic comedown, as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/texas-housing-market-home-prices-falling-austin-dallas-moving-trends-2024-10">Texas is facing a similar fate</a>.)But as much as people want to get out of the state, there will always be those looking to get in. More than 8,000 miles of coastline will do that.One Florida resident whose home sustained almost three feet of water damage from Helene cut their listing price by 40%. Within hours, their real-estate agent received 25 calls from investors interested in the property.<h3 id="77f31a4c-8462-4e3d-a71f-838cb79493fb">News brief</h3><h2 id="1fcd294b-3f53-425f-9f20-4093e8623b59">Top headlines</h2><ul><li>Harris hits '60 Minutes' without Trump. Political scientists weigh in on<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/kamala-harris-sixty-minutes-interview-donald-trump-why-explained-2024-10"> whether the interview matters</a>.</li><li>Google <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/google-app-store-android-third-party-epic-games-judge-2024-10">must allow third-party app stores on Android</a>, Epic Games judge rules.</li><li>The job market is in the 'Twilight Zone,' <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/job-market-outlook-claudia-sahm-layoffs-hiring-economy-twilight-zone-2024-10">top economist Claudia Sahm says</a>.</li><li>The Russian arms dealer who was exchanged for Brittney Griner is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russian-arms-dealer-viktor-bout-sell-weapons-to-houthis-wsj-2024-10">trying to sell weapons to the Houthis: report</a>.</li><li>This $9 billion hedge fund just joined the raid on big-bank commodity-index traders <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alphadyne-hires-jpmorgan-commodity-index-head-byuen-2024-10">with a senior JPMorgan hire</a>.</li></ul><h2 id="8120060b-ae66-48dc-b149-f0489a30ffa2">3 things in markets</h2><div type="image" title="Xi Jinping" height="1500" width="2000" msid="114050791" hostid="261" sizebytes="856940"></div><ol><li>Jittery investors are keeping a lid on China's stock market rally. Stocks surged on Tuesday thanks to pent-up demand from a weeklong trading break — but lost steam after Beijing <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stock-markets-csi300-golden-week-reopening-bazooka-stimulus-outlook-2024-10">failed to announce more stimulus measures</a>.</li><li>What recession? Goldman Sachs cut the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-outlook-economy-goldman-unemployment-jobs-report-nonfarm-payrolls-rates-2024-10">probability of a recession in the next year to 15%</a>, largely thanks to a strong jobs report. But the jobs report might have lowered the chances of something else: <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/interest-rate-cuts-fed-outlook-recession-economy-stocks-ed-yardeni-2024-10">more rate cuts this year</a>.</li><li>Greenlight's dispute with its alleged former head of macro keeps getting messier. James Fishback is asking to be <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/greenlight-former-macro-analyst-sues-david-einhorn-2024-10">awarded at least $5 million from Greenlight's David Einhorn</a>, claiming age discrimination. According to the filing, Einhorn dismissed Fishback's compensation concerns, saying he was being paid "a lot of money for a kid."</li></ol><h2 id="f4b54806-7f81-450c-ba32-92560d4fae9b">3 things in tech</h2><div type="image" title="Elon Musk." height="2400" width="3600" msid="114050797" hostid="261" sizebytes="493076"></div><ol><li>Elon Musk's next big pitch. The billionaire will have to convince investors that Tesla is more than just a car company at Thursday's Robotaxi Day, when he'll share updates on his plan for a driverless fleet. The event is part of Musk's master plan to position Tesla as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-robotaxi-day-tesla-robotics-ai-2024-10">tech company first, car company second</a> — and comes as Tesla's revenues have dipped.</li><li>Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang keeps talking about "sovereign AI." Here's what that means. A sovereign cloud guarantees data is stored locally, only used for intended purposes, and not transferred outside national borders. BI spoke with Vultr, a cloud-service provider, about why <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/sovereign-clouds-explained-data-center-ai-national-security-vultr-2024-10">the phrase is all the rage</a>.</li><li>Reading the tea leaves of the adtech exodus. Adtech execs keep leaving, a sign of a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/adtech-leadership-changes-signal-new-phase-amid-investor-pressure-2024-10">new era marked by Big Tech dominance</a>. With Google, Meta, and Amazon looming large, independent adtech companies are forced to compete over scraps. Case in point: Adtech company <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/adtech-company-pubmatic-layoffs-staff-reductions-2024-10">Pubmatic laid off 1% of its staff</a> last week as it reorients business toward growth areas.</li></ol><h2 id="9260fa45-d397-4b3c-b4f8-4bb193976216">3 things in business</h2><div type="image" title="A woman drinks a tropical cocktail on a beach with an MRI scan in the background." height="900" width="1200" msid="114050788" hostid="261" sizebytes="137494"></div><ol><li>Mojitos and an MRI. Millions of American "medical tourists" save between 40% and 90% on medical services by getting health screenings abroad. <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/medical-tourists-health-screenings-tests-exams-on-vacation-mexico-turkey-2024-10">That's a bad sign for the US healthcare system</a>.</li><li>The hedge-fund investor taking on Pfizer has a formidable reputation. Pfizer got a wake-up call on Sunday when one of the most feared activist investors on Wall Street revealed a stake in the company. Since 2011, Starboard Value's Jeff Smith has extracted board seats and profits from corporate America — <a target="_blank" rel="noopener" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/meet-jeff-smith-starboard-value-hedge-fund-investor-pfizer-2024-10">by force if necessary</a>.</li><li>How to reach potential voters: Porn and podcasts. They may not agree on much, but both Harris and Trump know that <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/podcaster-new-politics-power-broker-harris-and-trump-know-it-2024-10">podcasts are the new way to reach voters</a>, with each appearing on ultra-popular shows. Elsewhere on the internet, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/porn-website-advertisement-project2025-male-harris-trump-2024-10">porn sites have become a battleground for male voters</a>. A $100,000 campaign is aiming to tie Trump to Project 2025's efforts to ban porn and imprison its producers.</li></ol><h2 id="9f5d80ac-3466-429f-a50a-2ffbb70c65ff">What's happening today</h2><ul><li>Pepsico reports Q3 earnings, Samsung issues Q3 pre-earnings guidance, and Boeing announces Q3 deliveries.</li><li>Donald Trump participates in Univision News town hall with undecided Hispanic voters.</li><li>Kamala Harris has a full day of interviews: She'll appear on "The View" on ABC, "The Howard Stern Show" on SiriusXM, and "Late Night with Stephen Colbert" on CBS.</li></ul>The Insider Today team: Dan DeFrancesco, deputy editor and anchor, in New York. Jordan Parker Erb, editor, in New York. Hallam Bullock, senior editor, in London. Amanda Yen, fellow, in New York. Milan Sehmbi, fellow, in London.

Florida's real-estate market is on edge amid back-to-back hurricanes

The residential market shows a positive outlook, with 51% of stakeholders predicting higher sales over the next six months. However, a notable 24% expect stability, while 25% predict a potential decrease, reflecting a balanced yet cautious sentiment, as per a recent <keyword id="19895043" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Knight-Frank" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Knight Frank" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Knight Frank">Knight Frank</keyword> report. The outlook for residential launches is also positive, with 61% expecting an increase, suggesting continued demand. A more tempered view is held by 20% of respondents who expect stability, and 19% foresee a decrease in launches. The Indian <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword> continues to reflect a positive outlook for the near future, though with a more cautious approach. In terms of pricing, 63% of stakeholders expect a rise, but 36% anticipate stable prices, and a very small minority predict a decline. G Hari Babu, National President, National Real Estate Development Council (<keyword id="20429653" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="naredco" source="keywords">NAREDCO</keyword>), said, "The residential and office markets continue to show notable activity, signaling ongoing growth and opportunity. Developers and other key stakeholders, including banks and financial institutions, are maintaining a positive outlook." He added, "This suggests that while there may be short-term challenges, the sector is well-positioned to adapt and thrive. The continued optimism and activity in the market highlight the sector's ability to sustain its momentum and drive forward, amidst changing conditions." The <keyword id="22822547" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="office-leasing-market" source="keywords">office leasing market</keyword> shows signs of strong recovery, with 63% of respondents predicting an increase in leasing activity, driven by positive business sentiments and <keyword id="21313740" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="economic-revival" source="keywords">economic revival</keyword>. However, 24% expect stability, and 13% foresee a decline. New office supply also remains a point of interest, with 47% expecting an increase, while 29% anticipate stability, and 24% forecast a decrease. Furthermore, 67% of stakeholders expect office rents to rise, signaling confidence in the market's ongoing growth, even as 27% anticipate stable rents and 7% expect a decrease. The <keyword id="20635920" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="future-sentiment-score" source="keywords">Future Sentiment Score</keyword>, which measures stakeholders' outlook over the next six months, saw adjustments across various regions. The North Zone score slightly decreased from 65 in Q1 2024 to 63 in Q2 2024, though it remains firmly optimistic. The South Zone witnessed a more significant drop from 76 to 65, signaling a moderated outlook. In the East Zone, the score fell from 77 to 65, largely influenced by the discontinuation of the 2% stamp duty cut. The West Zone also saw moderation, with the score dipping from 73 to 66, though it too, remains optimistic. The overall Developer Future Sentiment score decreased from 72 to 61, reflecting a more guarded approach. Developers, while cautious, continue to remain optimistic due to strong sales since early 2023. On the other hand, the Non-Developer Future Sentiment core, which includes financial institutions and PE funds, also moderated from 73 to 68. This shift indicates stakeholders' careful consideration of macroeconomic concerns. Optimism in India's broader economic scenario remains strong, with 59% of respondents expecting an improvement, reflecting confidence in the country's economic resilience. However, 24% foresee stability, and 17% predict a decline, underscoring global economic uncertainties. Meanwhile, 51% of respondents anticipate increased funding availability for real estate investments, reflecting continued confidence in the financial sector's support for the real estate market. Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director of Knight Frank India Pvt Ltd, noted, "As we transition through 2024, a host of factors are playing out globally. The global economic landscape shows resilience despite ongoing challenges. Inflation rates are gradually aligning with central bank targets, enabling a more supportive monetary policy. India, benefiting from stable post-election conditions, remains a strong growth beacon." He added, "Domestic consumption is robust, supported by consumer loans, though there are some signs of growth moderation. Food inflationary pressures persist, but are converging overall towards price stability targets. With a projected GDP growth rate of 7.2% for FY 2025, India's outlook remains positive. An effective monetary policy by the Reserve Bank of India has helped sustain growth with price stability, positioning India as one of the fastest-growing large economies globally." The Current Sentiment score, which reflects stakeholders' view of the market compared to six months ago, moderated from a decadal high of 72 in Q1 2024 to 65 in Q2 2024. This suggests a more measured outlook as stakeholders navigate evolving global economic conditions. Despite the dip, the score remains indicative of optimism. Looking forward, the Future Sentiment index also adjusted from 73 in Q1 2024 to 65 in Q2 2024, signaling a positive yet more conservative outlook for the near term. While macroeconomic uncertainties may dampen enthusiasm, stakeholders continue to show confidence in the sector's resilience and adaptability.

Despite budget provisions, residential housing market will see sales growth, notes recent report by Knight Frank

New Delhi [India], June 13 (ANI): Mumbai and New Delhi are among cities in India that recorded a sharp annual increase in their <keyword id="6354553" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="real-estate" source="Orion">real estate</keyword> prices in the first quarter of 2024, according to a report by London-headquartered global property consultancy firm <keyword id="6363605" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Knight-Frank" source="Orion">Knight Frank</keyword>. In case of Bengaluru, the average real estate prices witnessed a modest 4.8 per cent rise in prime residential or luxury homes during the January-March quarter of 2024. According to the report by the property consultant, titled '<keyword id="22041946" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Prime-Global-Cities-Index-Q1-2024" source="Orion">Prime Global Cities Index Q1 2024</keyword>', Mumbai's significant rise on the international index was largely due to the rise in demand in the city. While the demand has been strong for all segments, there has been a rise in the sale of higher value products. Mumbai recorded the third highest year-on-year growth in prime residential prices in Q1-2024, pushing it up the ranking table by three places to 3rd position from its 6th position in Q1-2023. Delhi NCR rose from 17th rank in Q1-2023 to 5th in Q1-2024 with a growth of 10.5 per cent on a yearly basis. However, Bengaluru observed a slight decline in ranking from 16th place in Q1-2024 to 17th rank in Q1-2024, even while it recorded a 4.8 per cent yearly growth in residential prices. India's main cities, notably New Delhi and Mumbai, have witnessed a surge in house prices driven by robust economic growth, with annual GDP growth exceeding 8 per cent in the just concluded financial year 2023-24. Manila, the capital city of Philippines, claimed the top spot in the ranking with a 26.2 per cent annual rise in prices. The growth, as per the Knight Frank report, can be attributed to two key factors: purchasing power, and substantial infrastructure investments within and around the city. Tokyo in Japan jumped 17 places up with 12.5 per cent yearly price growth and ranked 2nd in the index. Despite Japan's overall population decline, Tokyo sustains a net population growth owing to migration from other regions within the country. Shishir Baijal, Chairman and Managing Director at Knight Frank India said, "The strong demand trend for residential properties has been a global phenomenon, led by gateway markets of Asia- Pacific and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa)." "Like its peers in these regions, the improved rankings of Mumbai and New Delhi on the Prime Global Cities Index was underscored by the resilience in sales growth volume. We expect the momentum of sales to remain stable over the next few quarters as the economic conditions are likely to remain broadly unchanged." The Prime Global Cities Index is a valuation-based index tracking the movement of prime residential prices across 44 cities worldwide. The index tracks nominal prices in local currency.

Mumbai, Delhi record real estate price appreciation in double digits; Ranked 3rd and 5th globally

The <keyword id="20613906" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Economic-Survey" source="keywords">Economic Survey</keyword> presented by <keyword id="20426375" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Union-Finance-Minister-Nirmala-Sitharaman" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman">Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman</keyword> has projected a <keyword id="19997196" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="growth-rate" source="keywords">growth rate</keyword> of 6.5 per cent and 7 per cent further solidifying <keyword id="19895063" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="India" source="keywords">India</keyword>'s strong <keyword id="20018805" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="macroeconomic-fundamentals" source="keywords">macroeconomic fundamentals</keyword>, <keyword id="20060150" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="CBRE" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="CBRE" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="CBRE">CBRE</keyword> Chairman and CEO-India, South-East Asia, Middle East and Africa, <keyword id="20177586" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Anshuman-Magazine" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Anshuman Magazine" meta.hostid="83" meta.entityid="Anshuman Magazine">Anshuman Magazine</keyword> said on Monday. The country's economic performance in FY'24 surpassed expectations, registering a robust growth rate of 8.2 per cent. "This momentum is noteworthy considering three out of the past four quarters exceeded the 8 per cent growth mark," he said in his reaction to the Economic Survey. <keyword id="19895000" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="inflation" source="keywords">Inflation</keyword> is anticipated to moderate around 4.5 per cent and it reflects a 'well-balanced' economic environment, he said. "The survey acknowledges the <keyword id="20152263" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="real-estate-sector" source="keywords">real estate sector</keyword>, particularly the residential segment, as a significant driver of <keyword id="20018651" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="private-investment" source="keywords">private investment</keyword>. The survey emphasizes the importance of continued collaboration between central and state governments, along with the private sector, to sustain this momentum," Magazine said in a statement. India's post-pandemic recovery has been orderly and expansive and it is testament to the underlying resilience of the economy, he said. "Looking ahead to FY'25, several indicators such as robust private consumption, increased bank lending activity and improved corporate capital expenditure indicate towards a good year ahead," he added.

Economic Survey pegs growth at 6.5-7%; solidifying India's strong macroeconomic fundamentals: CBRE

<ul class="summary-list"><li>China's July exports grew 7%, slower than expected, while import growth outperformed expectations.</li><li>China is facing other economic woes, including weaker consumer spending and a real-estate slump.</li></ul>In addition to battling a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-second-quarter-gdp-growth-weak-demand-consumption-exports-2024-7">slowing economy</a>, China is now feeling the sting of slowing global demand for its goods.The country's July exports grew 7% from the same period last year, falling short of an expected 9.7% increase and its slowest expansion pace in three months, <a target="_blank" href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/chinas-exports-growth-slows-3-month-low-july-imports-up-solidly-2024-08-07/">Reuters</a> reported. The figures for July also fell below China's explosive 8.6% export growth in June, which was the fastest in 15 months.Meanwhile, China's imports in July surged 7.2% year-over-year, significantly higher than the expected 3.2%. Imports from the US increased 24% from last year, CNBC <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/07/china-trade-data-july-exports-imports.html?__source=iosappshare%7Ccom.tinyspeck.chatlyio.share">reported</a>.The slowdown in China's exports comes amid sluggish domestic demand and slower-than-expected economic growth, despite consumers' higher disposable incomes.In the first quarter of 2024, China's economy showed signs of <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-weak-domestic-demand-factory-activity-amid-strong-export-2024-7#:~:text=Weak%20consumer%20demand%20is%20bad,the%20way%20they%20used%20to">slowing</a> when it grew by 4.7% year-over-year, falling short of the 5.1% expected. The slowdown was driven by weaker consumer demand and declining retail sales from a more <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-household-deposits-savings-luxury-consumer-demand-slowdown-economy-outlook-2024-7#:~:text=China's%20consumers%20aren't%20buying,not%20because%20they're%20broke&amp;text=Chinese%20consumers%20are%20saving%20more,June%2C%20hitting%20a%20record%20high.">frugal</a> spending attitude, BI reported in July.China's growth numbers were also dragged down by its <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-outlook-home-prices-slumped-beijing-property-crisis-real-estate-2024-4">real-estate crisis</a>, which saw home sale prices fall by 31% across cities in March.While China's net exports reached a record $99 billion in June, Nomura economists forecast that "China's economy will be unable to sustain a strong recovery through depending only on exports," they wrote in a note.The decline in export numbers from June to July might signal slowing external demand for Chinese goods, Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at Australia &amp; New Zealand Banking Group, told <a target="_blank" href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-07/china-s-export-grows-for-fourth-month-but-trade-surplus-narrows?srnd=next-china">Bloomberg</a>. This exacerbates China's growing list of economic concerns, such as <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-china-trade-war-tariffs-inflation-outlook-trump-biden-rogoff-2024-7">geopolitical headwinds</a> and a declining<a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-population-birthrate-hospitals-give-up-delivering-babies-obstetrics-2024-3"> birth rate</a>.The surges in June's exports and July's US imports could also be attributed to "possible rush shipments ahead of potential tariff increases if former US President Trump were to be re-elected," Goldman Sachs wrote in a Tuesday note.The spike in July's import numbers is a bright spot for China, as it could suggest signs of revival for China's faltering domestic demand.

It's not just real estate and spending — another pillar of China's economy looks like it's heading for trouble, too

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Capital Economics says an "unavoidable structural decline" in China's property sector has just begun.</li><li>Property sales and starts have collapsed, and construction could fall by half in the years ahead.</li></ul>Several years in, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-us-trade-markets-investors-policy-beijing-finance-outlook-2024-1">China's prolonged real-estate slump</a> has been well documented, but the landscape may be about to deteriorate further as construction enters a <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/china-economy-beijing-lehman-moment-policy-deflation-economy-markets-property-2023-8">deeper correction</a>, Capital Economics said in a note Wednesday.Property sales and starts have tumbled, but Beijing has been able to support construction activity by ramping up investment in the sector and pressuring developers to complete their work."A variety of approaches suggest that a sustainable level of residential construction activity is about half of what's underway today, given China's demographics and its need to replace aging housing stock," strategists wrote, adding that "property construction still has a long way to fall."Since peaking in 2022, floor area under construction has slipped by a mere 3%, as shown in the chart below.<div type="image" title="China residential real estate construction activity" height="598" width="939" msid="108275463" hostid="261"></div>Sizable infrastructure support has prevented construction from falling as much as anticipated. Investment in infrastructure has expanded at a "reasonably rapid rate," the Capital Economics team said. It's plausible, in their view, that construction output would have softened further without it."The drag from the unavoidable structural decline in China's property sector has only just begun," the strategists said.Meanwhile, Beijing's pressure on builders seems to have worked so far. Last year marked the first year since 1997 that reported residential property completions outpaced project starts.As Capital Economics highlighted, real-estate construction remains an opaque measurement in China. Much of the country's property data omits details that could help paint a clearer picture or explain the apparent lack of weakness in new building.<h2>Construction's impact on economic growth</h2>Real estate contributed roughly 1.5 percentage points to China's annual economic growth before the contraction began, the research firm said. But that weakness has so far come without a meaningful drop in construction.When similar steep drop-offs have occurred in other countries, they've usually taken place over three or four years. In Capital Economics' view, Beijing will drag it out so that it doesn't fully materialize until 2030.That ultimately could crimp China's GDP by about 1% across the rest of the decade compared with an outlook without as dramatic a construction slump.The strategists said that despite China's efforts in sector investment and developer pressure, it's unlikely that Beijing could offset the underlying weakness in property demand for much longer. Ultimately, China is attempting to use cyclical tools to solve structural issues.Much of the infrastructure investments are financed by local governments that face diminishing returns and other financial headwinds. Capital Economics said demographic challenges including a falling population and stalling urbanization suggest weaker property demand in the years ahead."In sum, while property sales and project starts have collapsed, and many developers have been driven into bankruptcy, the full impact of China's property crisis on real economic activity has not yet been felt," Capital Economics strategists said.

China's real-estate slump is about to get worse

<ul><li>Positive economic data, lowering inflation and timely project completion is expected to drive home sales in 2024 too.</li><li>The possibility of interest rate cuts in 2024 can be another driver for residential home sales.</li><li>Hybrid work policies, love for amenities and community living will determine choice of homes.</li><li>Changing lifestyle preferences of tier-2 and tier-3 consumers expected to drive more branded home developments from Chandigarh to Coimbatore. </li></ul> Indian home sales are all set to hit a 15-year peak in 2023, with over 3 lakh residential units purchased. Come 2024, they will go higher as lower inflation will push more fence-sitters ahead in addition to all around positivity around the Indian economy. There is also another key factor that will drive more people to buy homes. Grade A developers who are completing their projects on a war-footing, providing a supply of new-homes. “Timely project completion is giving a major boost to overall consumer sentiments, and they are coming forward to take the plunge,” Anuj Puri, chairman of <keyword id="6354553" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="real-estate" source="Orion">real estate</keyword> consultancy Anarock group, tells Business Insider India. Pricier yet affordable Residential home sales for the ongoing festive quarter have been 30% higher than that of 2022. Thanks to heavy demand and new launches, the prices of homes have also been going up. A few micro-markets, in and around the tech hubs of Hyderabad, Bangalore and Pune, prices have shot up by anywhere between 25-33%. “Capital value growth is expected to witness divergent trends across micro-markets and property categories and will largely be governed by unsold inventory levels and inventory overhangs,” says Anshuman Magazine, chairman &amp; CEO - India, South-East Asia, Middle East &amp; Africa, CBRE. Whitefield in Bangalore, Gachibowli in Hyderabad and Wagholi in Pune are some of the micro-markets that have seen good price appreciation. Overall, across the top 7 cities, the average growth in property prices has been anywhere between 8-10%. As per Anarock, it’s expected to see at least 12% increase in 2024. Emerging infrastructure is also expected to push for price growth. Mumbai Metro Connectivity in the western suburbs has pushed up the housing demand in the Andheri-Borivali belt significantly. “With the backdrop of tremendous infrastructural development going on in full swing across the cities and states, we foresee the emergence of newer micro-markets as well as the strengthening of the existing ones. Similarly, the demand for housing in other cities and peripheries is expected to grow, owing to the phenomenal connectivity boost, leading to price growth across the targeted micro-markets,” Dhaval Ajmera, director, Ajmera Realty tells Business Insider India. While home prices might turn pricier, there is a chance that the net costs of home buying may go down if interest rates ease. The central bank has kept base interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time in December. A few experts hope that a lower interest rate cycle might kick off in the coming year. "In 2024, we are likely to see a renaissance with affordability levels expected to be on an improving trajectory as macroeconomic fundamentals support a repo rate reversal and thereby interest rate reduction that could provide another fillip to the residential sales market," said a JLL report Home Purchase Affordability Index' (HPAI). The depreciation of the rupee against major global currencies, together with stable economic conditions in India is also a factor. "A notable trend has been the heightened interest in Indian real estate from NRIs. The advancement of technology has streamlined the process of property management from far away which has boosted NRIs confidence in Indian real estate as an avenue for investment, said Saurabh Garg, Co-founder &amp; Chief Business Officer, NoBroker. Space not price is the criteria Indians’ love for spacier and larger homes might not go away and are ready to shell out more. The lockdown-era love for people needing more space will not reverse as fast as companies went back from work-from-home policies. Lingering hybrid work policies are expected to keep people yearning for workstations inside homes that support remote work and flexi-living. It indicates a long-term shift in behaviour. “Buyer demand for large homes is still high, even in light of impending changes to laws about remote work. This tendency is anticipated to continue, reshaping the real estate market in 2024 as people look for homes that strike a balance between comfort, usefulness, and adaptability to changing work environments,” said Manju Yagnik, VC of Nahar Group. Indians will no longer base their home buying decisions on affordability alone. More factors have come into play like health &amp; safety, community living, sustainability, and integration of smart home technologies. “Home buyers are expected to continue to display strong preferences for projects which offer enhanced accessibility to essential infrastructure, ancillary amenities and thoughtfully designed indoor and outdoor spaces – which will propel the demand for this segment going forward,” says Magazine. Emerging tier-2, tier-3 opportunity Growing affluence in smaller cities and towns is also building demand for branded homes. Many developers will be going beyond top 8 cities where demand for amenities-driven homes is going up. Most of this demand is seen in tier 2 &amp; 3 cities such as Lucknow, Jaipur, Ahmedabad, Coimbatore and Chandigarh. “What aids the real estate market in these smaller towns and cities is their affordable prices as against big cities and the superior infrastructure that many of these Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities provide,” said Chitnis. There is a lot of home-buying interest by NRIs in such cities too, especially Kochi and Ahmedabad. That’s where a chunk of the new demand for the coming year will come from. These regions provide profitable prospects for developers and homeowners, say developers. “Our prognosis for continued development is positive beyond the top 7 and 8 cities. We anticipate a spike in major branded properties due to growing demand and promising development opportunities in emerging economies. This growth is driven by greater connectivity, changing lifestyle preferences, and infrastructure developments,” says Yagnik. ALSO READ: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/markets/news/midcaps-will-move-but-not-as-fast-in-2024/articleshow/106143826.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Bulls &amp; Bubbles: Midcaps will move but not as fast in 2024</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/india/webstories/mukesh-ambani-to-savitri-jindal-indias-richest-in-2023-and-their-wealth-change/slidelist/106175315.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink" target="_blank">Mukesh Ambani to Savitri Jindal: India's richest in 2023 and their wealth change </a>

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