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<ul class="summary-list"><li>Bank of America cited three risks that could upend corporate earnings growth, a key driver of stock returns.</li><li>One potential headwind is Trump's proposed tariff plan, BofA said.</li></ul>The stock market has been <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/trump-election-win-stock-market-today-record-high-sp500-dow-2024-11">riding high</a> since Donald Trump won the presidential election.One main driver of that has been investors pricing in strong profit growth in the future, seen as a direct byproduct of Trump's plans to cut the corporate tax rate and loosen regulation.Although <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/category/bank-of-america">Bank of America</a>'s year-end target for the <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500">S&amp;P 500</a> is slightly above current levels, new research from the firm's equity-strategy team laid out three developments that could derail the ongoing "earnings-per-share upcycle" that's powering gains.First, an economic recession could significantly undercut earnings growth, drawing S&amp;P EPS down 10% to 20%.Though a US downturn isn't BofA's base case, the bank cited that recession risk is a real possibility under incoming president Donald Trump.That will depend on which policies the incoming administration prioritizes, analysts wrote in a separate note. In a scenario where Trump pushes dramatic immigration curbs and protectionist trade policies amid minimal fiscal easing, the economy would sink into recession.Peak-to-trough profit drawdowns of 20% are typical in an average recession. Under this scenario, EPS would drop to $195-$220 next year.To be sure, BofA also sees chances of blowout growth, if the president-elect de-emphasizes trade and immigration restrictions in favor of tax cuts and deregulation. In this case, GDP growth could even exceed 3% in 2025.Second, if Trump's trade plans are implemented, retaliatory tariffs could trigger a 10% hit to EPS.During his campaign, the president-elect pledged to implement a 10% duty on all foreign imports into the US. That wouldn't apply to Chinese products, which would face a 60% rate instead.If Trump stays true to his word, BofA expects US foreign sales to take on a 3% to 4% hit as the rest of the world establishes its own retaliatory tariffs.In the mounting trade war, industrials and semiconductor stocks would be most at risk, the bank said.Third, a dramatic upswing in bond yields could slash EPS by another 10%.BofA's worst-case scenario would be if the 10-year Treasury yield surges to 7%, a situation that could be prompted if Trump's tariff and immigration reductions spark an inflation shock.If this were to happen, the yield jump implies that the Purchasing Managers Index would hit 43 by 2024's year-end.This measure monitors the health of US manufacturing and indicates a contraction whenever its reading stands below 50. As of October, PMI registered a 46.5 level.While a contracting manufacturing base would cut into EPS, higher bond yields could also weigh on equity exposure. BofA noted that stocks could face increased pressure once the 10-year rate rises above 5%.The yield has been climbing higher amid Trump's election, as uncertainty has grown over whether the Federal Reserve can cut rates amid the president-elect's policies. The 10-year rate is currently trading above 4.5%.

3 developments that could derail the stock market's post-Trump sugar high, BofA says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Michael McKinlay, 46, from Calgary, describes himself as a Costco superfan.</li><li>As well as its low prices, McKinlay likes its returns policy, Kirkland brand, and how it treats its staff.</li></ul>This as-told-to article is based on a conversation with Michael McKinlay, 46, who lives in Calgary, Canada. He is a self-proclaimed Costco "superfan" and runs an <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.instagram.com/costco_pro">Instagram</a> account and multiple <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://www.facebook.com/groups/3160377447528877">Facebook groups</a> for fans of the retailer. The article has been edited for length and clarity.I'm a Costco superfan. I'm on a different level than most people.It offers really good value. And everything is there, so you don't have to go to a ton of different stores.Since I was a teenager my parents had always been going to Costco. I've been a Costco member myself since September 2014. I had always gone before that too, maybe with a friend who had a membership, or my parents.Since I joined I've had the Executive Membership. It's currently <a target="_blank" href="https://www.costco.ca/join-costco.html">120 Canadian dollars</a> ($87), although it's going up to <a target="_blank" class="" href="https://customerservice.costco.com/app/answers/answer_view/a_id/1013504/~/membership-fee-increase">130</a> ($95) soon. It gives you <a target="_blank" href="https://customerservice.costco.com/app/answers/answer_view/a_id/1008254/~/executive-2%25-reward-faqs">2% cash back</a>. That pays for itself for me.<h2 id="af004818-6ab4-4705-835a-bb8e9aa4e285">It's all about getting a good deal</h2>I go to Costco about once a week. I usually go to my closest store and I'm pretty efficient. I usually spend half an hour to 45 minutes in the store. I look up what's on sale before I go and I make a list. I am not an impulse buyer or a shopper. I know what I want.<div type="image" title="Michael McKinlay standing outside the entrance to a Costco store in Canada" height="640" width="1280" msid="112589849" hostid="261" sizebytes="49708"></div>Costco is my go-to for most things. Most of the time I'm just buying groceries. I do go to a couple of other grocery stores just because I have a small family and everything at Costco is bulk and I don't want to buy something and then have it go to waste.For most things, and even electronics or household stuff, I will definitely check out Costco first. But I'll look at other places because maybe you'll find a better deal. For me, it's all about getting a good deal, but generally Costco is pretty solid. It's hard to beat.Costco sells middle-of-the-range products. So it's not garbage or stuff that's going to break down. It's a good medium between quality and price.I buy a mix of Kirkland and branded products. If Kirkland is a little bit less, then I'll likely buy it. It would probably be a default. But it's a mix because Kirkland doesn't make everything — there's only a select number of things that it makes.The Kirkland brand is just as good. I used to buy its diapers for my son. I've almost never been disappointed.I really like the store-baked cookies and desserts although I try to limit myself since they have a lot of sugar. I usually only buy them if they are on sale, which isn't that often.<h2 id="c13c1110-40a3-4c4a-9bf2-7b41b7aeeeff">Costco has a lot of good policies</h2>Costco seems to really treat its employees a lot better than other places, and its employees often stay for many years.Costco has a good return policy — basically, no questions asked. It's almost too good because I think some people abuse it. I try not to use it because I actually feel some weird sense of loyalty. I usually only try to do it when I actually feel like, "Yeah, this didn't work out." For example, I bought a massager, and the charging port broke. I took it back, no problem.Another really good thing about Costco is its <a target="_blank" href="https://customerservice.costco.com/app/answers/answer_view/a_id/628">price reduction policy</a>. It could be something as small as a pack of eggs. Staff never give you a hard time about it. You feel that, even as a giant corporation, it has your back, or it's loyal to you in some sense.Gas prices are the cheapest pretty much everywhere you go. And then you're hitting another bird with one stone. You get your gas, get your groceries, and you're done.<h2 id="14afda40-0c9a-485a-ade8-c2a2d6fe147b">I've used Costco for hockey sticks, rental cars, and even a cruise</h2>There's also the treasure hunt aspect. For instance, I bought some water guns for me and my four-year-old son. I wasn't planning on buying those, but they were a good deal.When Costco stocks hockey sticks, I'll probably pick one up because they're a lot cheaper than regular sports stores. And the quality is as good as I need, for sure.I buy car stuff every now and again. Things like an air compressor, polish, wax, and a car vacuum, which is super handy for around the house.My mom got hearing aids. At another store, it was 6,000 Canadian dollars ($4,375). At Costco there were very similar hearing aids that were about 3,000 Canadian dollars ($2,187). The staff said if she happened to lose one, Costco has a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.costco.ca/hearing-aid-information.html">policy</a> to replace it. The hearing aid examination was free, though there's a fee for the optometrist.I booked a Princess Cruise Line cruise for my mom through Costco. It was a few hundred dollars cheaper than her travel agent for the same product. And Costco also gave her a <a target="_blank" href="https://www.costcotravel.com/Travel-Offers/20240506uDCSC">cash credit card</a>, a couple of hundred bucks.I've rented cars through Costco as well. It'll actually compare the rental companies and tell you which one's cheaper. It's cheaper than going directly, too.<div type="image" title="Michael McKinlay standing next to a display advertising rental cars in a Costco store in Canada" height="1134" width="1512" msid="112589854" hostid="261" sizebytes="213794"></div>I also bought tickets to a local dinner theatre from Costco as well as ski lift tickets to mountain resorts near Calgary.<h2 id="fd17f7aa-789d-456a-894a-ed1de73df04d">The food court is good for the price</h2>I eat at the food court about once a month. Usually, I go to Costco by myself, but if my family comes, we might eat together.It's not the greatest menu. I wouldn't eat there every time, that's for sure.But it's good if you want something quick, easy, and inexpensive. There's nothing I avoid on the menu.It's not great pizza, but for what you pay and what you get, it's good.<h2 id="4f69b627-3705-452e-825a-3db609495697">Other people probably don't enjoy Costco as much as me</h2>Most of my friends and family are Costco members. The only people that aren't don't have a Costco near them. Pretty much everybody I know has a membership. They probably don't enjoy it as much as I do.Are you a Costco superfan? Email this reporter at gdean@insider.com.

I'm a Costco superfan. The prices are hard to beat and you can get pretty much anything there — I've even booked my mom a cruise.

It's not just Zomato — From Happiest Minds to CDSL, some of India's hottest stocks are melting too

<ul><li>At 7:45 am, the SGX Nifty was down 0.27%, indicating a tepid start for Nifty50. </li><li>Here’s a list of stocks to watch for in trade today. </li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/">Check out the latest news and updates on Business Insider.</a> </li></ul>Indian stock-market indices are likely to start lower on Thursday, led by negative cues from the global markets. At 7:45 am, the SGX Nifty was down 0.27%, indicating a tepid start for Nifty50. The<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/nasdaq-closes-at-record-high-as-investors-digest-fed-action-and-stimulus-talks/articleshow/79769421.cms"> US equities closed mixed on Wednesday</a> as investors mulled the Federal Reserve’s forecast, disappointing economic data, and progress toward passing new stimulus. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 0.15% lower, and the S&amp;P 500 was up 0.18%. These are the stocks to watch out for during the trading session today: Hero MotoCorp The two-wheeler major Hero MotoCorp said it would hike the two-wheeler prices with effect from January 1. The company cited a steady rise in commodity costs across the spectrum, including steel, aluminium, plastics, and precious metals as the rationale behind the price hike. RIL, Airtel, Vodafone-Idea and other telecom stocks RIL, Airtel, Vodafone-Idea and other telecom stocks will be in focus during the trade today as the union cabinet approved a proposal to auction spectrum worth 4 lakh crore in March 2021. A total of <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/telecom/news/indian-government-to-auction-spectrum-worth-4-lakh-crore-in-march-2021/articleshow/79757930.cms">2,251.25 MHz of spectrum</a> will be auctioned across seven bands. Future Enterprises Future Enterprises on Wednesday reported a consolidated net loss of ₹320.56 crore for the second quarter ended September 2020, on account of lower revenue from operations. The company had posted a net profit of ₹21.78 crore in the corresponding quarter a year ago. Wipro IT services major Wipro has completed the acquisition of 83.4% equity stake in Chennai-based Encore Theme Technologies. In October, Wipro announced that it had signed a definitive agreement to acquire Encore Theme, a specialist in providing SaaS and Cloud solutions in financial services, for up to ₹95 crore. IndusInd Bank The Private lender IndusInd Bank said the market regulator SEBI had granted a one-month extension for its promoters to infuse residual capital in lieu of conversion of warrants, issued to them last year, worth over ₹2,695 crore into equity. Computer Age Management Services (CAMS) Computer Age Management Services (CAMS) informed stock-exchanges that it had been considered eligible for selection and a further grant of registration as a Central Record Keeping Agency under the National Pension Scheme (NPS) under the Pension Fund Regulatory and Development Authority (Central Recordkeeping Agency) Regulations, 2015. IRCTC The government has proposed to offer up to 16 lakh equity shares to the eligible employees of the company at a price of ₹1,377.55 per equity share. Employee OFS will open from December 18 till December 21. Lakshmi Vilas Bank The Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB), which was amalgamated with DBS Bank last month has decided to delist its equity shares with effect from December 18. Jubilant FoodWorks Jubilant FoodWorks forays into the Biryani segment with a new brand ‘Ekdum!’ as part of its portfolio expansion. ‘Ekdum!’ will offer a variety of biryanis from across India along with kebabs, curries, breads, desserts and beverages. Balrampur Chini Mills, Dhampur Sugar Mills, Triveni Engineering, Shree Renuka Sugars and others Balrampur Chini Mills, Dhampur Sugar Mills, Triveni Engineering, Shree Renuka Sugars and other sugar stocks will be in focus during the trade today as the cabinet approved ₹3,500 crore subsidy for sugar farmers and ₹6,000 per tonne subsidy for sugar exports to be given for 60 lakh tonnes of sugar exports. SEE ALSO:<a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/business/corporates/news/interview-home-recipes-that-are-set-for-a-7-million-ipo-mrs-bectors-food-is-no-cookie-cutter/articleshow/79721783.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink"> INTERVIEW: Home recipes that are set for a $73 million IPO⁠— Mrs Bector’s Food is no cookie cutter</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/thelife/personalities/news/facebook-ceo-mark-zuckerberg-and-reliance-industries-mukesh-ambani-spoke-but-had-no-chemistry/articleshow/79739547.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Zuckerberg spoke to Ambani but there was no chemistry — even with a multi-million dollar partnership between them</a>

Top stocks to watch — Hero Moto, RIL, Bharti Airtel, Future Enterprises, Wipro, Jubilant FoodWorks, and others

<ul><li>The 30-share BSE index was trading 0.55% higher, while the Nifty50 rose 60.30 points.</li><li>These were the top losers and gainers in the Nifty pack. </li><li>These are the top stocks that are buzzing in trade today.</li><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/">Check out the latest news and updates on Business Insider.</a> </li></ul>Indian stock market index Sensex jumped over 200 points in early trade on Tuesday tracking cues from global markets and sustained foreign fund inflow. The 30-share BSE index was trading 0.55% higher, while the Nifty50 rose 60.30 points. These were the top losers and gainers in the Nifty pack: <table style="border-width: initial; border-style: none;"></colgroup><tbody><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Top Nifty Gainers </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Top Nifty Losers </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Cipla </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Tech Mahindra </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Sun Pharma </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">HCL Tech </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">ICICI Bank </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Wipro </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">HDFC </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">TCS </td></tr><tr><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Grasim </td><td style="border-left:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-right:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-bottom:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;border-top:solid #000000 0.9907650000000001pt;vertical-align:bottom;padding:5pt 5pt 5pt 5pt;overflow:hidden;overflow-wrap:break-word;">Eicher Motors </td></tr></tbody></table>*as of September 15, 9:50 am Strides Pharma shares gain 3% The drug major Strides Pharma Science said it would invest ₹135 crore over the next two years to acquire around 54% stake in SteriScience Pharma Pvt Ltd. This will make SteriScience the company’s dedicated arm for the global sterile injectables business, Strides Pharma Science said in a filing to the BSE. Future Retail shares dip 2% in early trading hours The shares of Future Retail lost nearly 2% a day after it reported a net loss of ₹242.2 crore for the quarter ended June 30. The company’s overall revenue was down 88.6% to ₹ 163.2 crore compared to the same period last year. Ugar Sugar Works, Balrampur Chini, Dhampur Sugar, Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar and other sugar stocks rally Ugar Sugar Works, Balrampur Chini, Dhampur Sugar, Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar and other sugar stocks gained after subsidy rules on sugar export were eased. The sugar-making companies will now get 180 days to claim the subsidy instead of 90 days. ICICI Bank shares advance 2% The shares of ICICI Bank advanced 2% after the company told investors that the RBI had exempted it from provisions of the Banking Regulation Act 1949 relating to its investments in its insurance companies. A government notification exempts ICICI Bank from cutting stake to 30% in ICICI Lombard General Insurance and ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, for a period of three years. Adani Green crosses ₹1 trillion market capitalisation Adani Green shares were locked in a 5% upper circuit after touching an all time high of ₹670.65 on the BSE. With this Adani Green also became the first Adani Group subsidiary to cross ₹1 trillion market capitalisation. Infosys shares advanced 5% The shares of tech giant Infosys advanced 5%, adding to gains from yesterday. On Monday, the company said it would acquire Czech Republic-based GuideVision for up to €30 million ( ₹260.4 crore). SEE ALSO: <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/sensex-gains-200-points-nifty-tests-11500-amid-positive-global-cues/articleshow/78118729.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Sensex gains 200 points; Nifty tests 11,500 amid positive global cues</a> <a href="https://www.businessinsider.in/stock-market/news/top-stocks-to-watch-future-retail-pvr-central-bank-icici-bank-spicejet-indiabulls-housing-finance-and-more/articleshow/78117441.cms" data-type="tilCustomLink">Top stocks to watch— Future Retail, PVR, Central Bank, ICICI Bank, SpiceJet, Indiabulls Housing Finance and more</a>

Top stock movers — Future Retail, Infosys, Adani Green, TCS, Tech Mahindra, Strides Pharma, Bajaj Hindusthan Sugar, ICICI Bank, Cipla and more

<ul><li><keyword id="12785383" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="nikola" source="Orion">Nikola</keyword> jumped 17% on Thursday after the embattled auto maker said it started production of its electric semi-trucks.</li><li>The Nikola Tre is a semi-truck that is estimated to have up to 350 miles in range per charge.</li><li>The company said it expects to build 300-500 of the electric semi-trucks in 2022.</li></ul><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/nkla-stock">Nikola</a> seems to be turning a corner on its troubled past and is moving ahead with its strategy of building electric semi-trucks for the freight industry.Nikola soared as much as 19% in premarket trade on Thursday after the company said it began production of its Tre truck, an electric semi-truck that is estimated to have up to 350 miles in range per charge. Shares were up 17% at the opening bell to $10.66. The company said it expects to build 300 to 500 of the electric semi-trucks in 2022. The comments came during an analyst event on Wednesday, and ahead of an investor presentation late Thursday afternoon.Despite Thursday's surge, <keyword id="13459063" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="nikola-stock" source="Orion">Nikola stock</keyword> is still down 88% from its record high of $93.99. That surge came just a few months after it went public via <keyword id="11908250" type="UNKNOWN" weightage="60" keywordseo="spac" source="Orion">SPAC</keyword> in June of 2020, in which <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/nikola-stock-market-value-soar-past-ford-fiat-chrysler-surpass-2020-6-1029298004">it was briefly valued higher than Ford</a> and helped spark a wave of new SPAC deals.But the sugar high in Nikola stock didn't last long in 2020 after its founder, <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nikola-founder-trevor-milton-downfall-2021-3">Trevor Milton, resigned and was charged with fraud.</a> At issue was the misrepresentation of progress at the company, with Nikola rolling an inoperable truck down a hill and filming it as if the truck was working. With new management at the helm of Nikola, the company scrapped its consumer-targeted electric pick-up truck and is instead focusing all of its efforts on electric semi-trucks. And now it appears that the company will beat <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/stocks/tsla-stock">Tesla</a> to market. Tesla first unveiled its electric semi-truck in 2017, but <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-electric-semi-truck-delayed-again-2022-now-2021-7">a series of product delays</a> means the truck won't be released until 2023 at the earliest.The relatively short range of Nikola's Tre means the semi-truck will be best used for local applications. But Nikola said it still has long-term ambitions to develop longer-range semi-trucks powered by hydrogen gas and fuel cells.Nikola said deliveries of its Tre truck will begin in the second quarter, while European deliveries will begin in the third quarter.

Original SPAC-meme stock Nikola soars 17% after it begins production of its first electric vehicle

<ul class="summary-list"><li>The market is beginning to price in the effect of the new El Niño weather pattern, Morgan Stanley said.</li><li>It's already sent utilities and chocolate stocks plummeting and insurance stocks soaring so far this year.</li></ul>The market is beginning to price in the effect of the next extreme weather cycle — and it's sending stocks on diverging paths.That's because the upcoming El Niño phenomenon has come into clearer focus, allowing Wall Street to predict who the top winners and losers could be. In fact, mentions of "El Niño" in earnings calls are already rising."Extreme weather events are broadening and strengthening," Morgan Stanley analysts led by Javier Martinez de Olcoz wrote in a note issued Tuesday. "The micro effects are proliferating, and stocks are diverging. The macro effects have the potential to be inflationary, if increased restrictions through the Panama Canal become more acute."That's as a parched Panama Canal doesn't have enough water to let as many ships pass through the waterway as it once used to.Utilities, chemicals, global food retail, and chocolate are four stocks that have been already gutted this year. On the flip side, insurance stocks as well as Brazilian sugar and ethanol producers trading way higher.Meanwhile, global utilities have more or less traded flat, while freight and shipping stocks have begun falling.<div type="image" title="Stocks potentially impacted by El Niño" height="648" width="1292" msid="105218033" hostid="261" sizebytes="73186"></div>In addition to stocks, commodities like olive oil, cocoa, and orange juice have felt the impact of the forecasts too. Overall, analysts see crops suffering with the hotter weather. Chocolate is getting more expensive as the holidays approach with dwindling cocoa bean supply and rising cocoa prices.Grains like corn, wheat, and sugar are also getting pricier, which will hurt Latin American food and beverage companies who rely on those commodities for their products."El Niño is confirmed and stronger than normal," Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. "The upstream impact from El Niño is trickling through sectors and supply chains."Also, when crops hurt, it affects the demand for chemicals like fertilizers. The impact on utilities is more varied, hurting some parts of the world but benefiting others. In Latin America, more wind and rainfall is great for power generation. In the US, wildfires have led to more power outages.Meanwhile, insurance companies are seeing higher storm activity in Southern California and drier conditions in the western United States and Australia, which means the reinsurance industry (providers of insurance for insurance companies) will likely get more business.

Stock market winners and losers are already emerging from the next extreme weather cycle

<ul class="summary-list"><li>US stocks traded mixed as tech stocks took a breather after a brief S&amp;P 500 surge past 5,100.</li><li>Major indexes ended the week high, propelled by AI-driven euphoria.</li></ul>US stocks closed mixed on Friday after the S&amp;P 500 benchmark index briefly crossed 5,100 for the first time.The stock rally was more muted Friday after the sugar-rush that propelled stocks into record territory after Nvidia's boom-time earnings release on Thursday. Still, the Dow Jones Industrial Average notched a new all-time closing highs, while the S&amp;P 500 briefly crossed 5,100 for the first time ever. "Yesterday's market rally, just in terms of price action, did much to assuage fears that the AI theme was a passing phase," Quincy Krosby from LPL Financial said in a note on Friday.That AI-driven euphoria has been able to lift markets without imminent rate cuts in sight, which was a key theme for stocks in the past few months."Next week's roster of data, including the durable goods and personal income/personal spending report will be important for assessing the strength of the broader economy," Krosby noted.Here's where US indexes stood at the closing bell at 4:00 p.m. on Friday: <ul><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/s&amp;p_500?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">S&amp;P 500</a>: 5,088.80, up 0.03% </li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/dow_jones?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a>: 39,131.53, up 0.16% (+62.42 points)</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/index/nasdaq_composite?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Nasdaq Composite</a>: 15,996.82, down 0.28% </li></ul>Here's what else is going on:<ul><li><a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-economy-ukraine-war-moscow-military-spending-inflation-worker-shortage-2024-2?mrfhud=true">Russia's economy is so driven by the war</a> in Ukraine that it cannot afford to either win or lose, one economist says.</li><li>The more Americans that take Ozempic, the <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/us-economy-faster-growth-ozempic-glp-1-weight-loss-drugs-2024-2?mrfhud=true">faster the US economy will grow</a>, Goldman Sachs says.</li><li>These are the <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/top-10-holdings-bill-gates-42-billion-stock-portfolio-13f-2024-2?mrfhud=true">top 10 holdings</a> of Bill Gates' $42 billion stock portfolio.</li><li>Short-seller Jim Chanos <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/commodities/nvidia-stock-price-growth-microchips-ai-big-tech-chanos-mcdonald-2024-2?mrfhud=true">warns Nvidia's epic growth is cannibalizing Big Tech</a> — as the chip titan's value surges by $1 trillion in 4 months.</li><li>Americans' <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-us-equity-ownership-portfolio-allocation-bonds-jpmorgan-2024-2?mrfhud=true">"love affair" with the stock market</a> is stronger than ever</li><li>"Magnificent 7" tech stocks are <a href="https://www.businessinsider.com/magnificent-seven-tech-stocks-market-recession-economic-outlook-soft-landing-2024-2?mrfhud=true">dangerously dominant</a> — and recession's still a real risk, top economist warns.</li></ul>In commodities, bonds, and crypto: <ul><li>Oil prices fell, with<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?type=wti&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> West Texas Intermediate</a> down 2.6% to $76.54 a barrel. <a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/oil-price?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Brent crude</a>, the international benchmark, dipped 2.4% to $81.66 a barrel.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/commodities/gold-price?utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest%3Futm_source%3Dmarkets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Gold</a> rose 0.8% to $2,046.90 per ounce.</li><li>The<a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/rates/u-s--rates-10-years?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets"> 10-year Treasury yield</a> slipped 7 basis points to 4.252%.</li><li><a href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/currencies/btc-usd?utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets&amp;utm_medium=ingest&amp;utm_source=markets">Bitcoin</a> edged lower by 1.69% to $51,056.</li></ul>

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