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Foreign investors have withdrawn nearly Rs 20,000 crore from Indian stock markets in just five trading days (November 4–8), continuing a trend of large-scale selling that began last month. Experts say investors are now moving their money to China, largely due to the high valuations presently prevailing in Indian markets. In early November, FPIs have offloaded as much as Rs 19,994 crore in Indian markets. The month prior, i.e., October, was one of the worst months in terms of foreign outflows, with FPIs making a net withdrawal of Rs 94,017 crore. Before this, Indian markets faced such a situation during the pandemic, when FPIs withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. <h2>Why Are Investors Leaving? </h2>According to Himanshu Srivastava of Morningstar Investment Research India, two main factors are driving this exodus. First is China's renewed appeal due to lower stock valuations and new economic stimulus measures. In a bid to nudge the domestic economy and bail state governments, China recently approved a 10-trillion yuan (US $1.4 trillion) package. Per reports, approximately 60% of this stimulus focuses on allowing local governments to refinance the mountain of debt on them. Srivastava explains foreign investors are also flocking to US dollar and Treasury yields, which have appreciated significantly in the recent past, leading FPIs to anticipate a stronger US economy going ahead. Moreover, high valuations in Indian markets are discouraging foreign investors from putting more money in the economy. As a result, over the past week, the selling pressure eroded Rs 74,563 crore in market value for Reliance Industries, while Bharti Airtel and ICICI Bank lost Rs 26,274 crore and Rs 22,254 crore, respectively. The combined market valuation of six of the top 10 most-valued firms dipped by Rs 1,55,721.12 crore last week. <h2> Silver linings</h2>Despite the ongoing outflux of funds since last month, November also saw unprecedented applications of about 40–50 new FPI registrations, which are eyeing to enter the Indian market. This was due to markets SEBIs recent relaxation to NRIs, permitting them to participate up to 100% and announcing measures for ease of entry and operations in India. On the other hand, FPIs invested Rs 599 crore in the debt general limit and Rs 2,896 crore in the debt voluntary retention route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market. <li class="whitespace-normal break-words"></li>Going ahead, investors will be looking for certain macroeconomic cues, which include corporate earnings reports, India's inflation (CPI) and industrial production (IIP) data on November 12, the US inflation report on November 13, and wholesale price index (WPI) data on November 14.

FPIs withdraw nearly Rs 20,000 crore from equities in the last 5 trading sessions, make a beeline for China and US

Stock market trading is something that needs expert guidance and has its own set of risks associated. This is why, people generally consult experts before investing in stocks. However, one needs to be careful who they are seeking advice from when it comes to financial matters. In a recent case, a 63-year-old man from Hyderabad lost Rs 50 lakh after falling for a fraudulent stock trading scheme shared through a <keyword id="790242" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="whatsapp" source="Orion">WhatsApp</keyword> group. This is just one example of how fraudsters are increasingly using messaging platforms to lure in victims with false promises of easy profits. <h2>How the scam unfolded </h2> The scam began when the victim received an invitation to join a WhatsApp group called Stock Discussion Group. According to a Times Now report, the group was led by a man named <keyword id="23828130" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="kunal-singh" source="keywords">Kunal Singh</keyword>, who introduced himself as a financial advisor with extensive experience in the stock market. Singh claimed that his past clients had earned significant profits, boasting of returns as high as 500% by following his stock trading advice. Intrigued by these promises, the victim enrolled in online classes that were promoted within the group. These sessions, held through private links shared on WhatsApp, promised to teach participants how to make money by investing in the stock market. Singh continued to assure group members that his expertise would guide them to financial success. The victim, trusting his guidance, began to invest small amounts of money on a platform called Skyrim Capital, which Singh claimed was a legitimate trading platform. At first, the victim saw some returns on his investment, which only encouraged him to invest more. The initial success built his confidence, and over time, he transferred a total of Rs 50 lakh into multiple investments, believing that he was making wise financial decisions. However, when the victim attempted to withdraw his funds, he was unable to do so. The platform blocked his attempts, and when he tried to contact Singh, he received no response. The truth behind the scam The victim soon realised that he had been scammed. The platform, Skyrim Capital, turned out to be nothing more than a front for fraudulent activity, and Singh had disappeared with the man’s money. The scam had been carefully designed to build trust initially, only to betray the victim when he tried to cash out. The fraudsters used the lure of high returns and expert advice to convince the victim to keep investing larger sums, ultimately draining his finances. This scam is just one of many that have been reported in India, with cybercriminals exploiting the convenience and popularity of platforms like WhatsApp to reach potential victims. These scams often rely on false promises and fake personas, with fraudsters creating elaborate stories to convince their targets that they are legitimate financial advisors.

63-year-old Hyderabad man loses ₹50 lakh after joining WhatsApp group for stock market investment advice

India's investment ecosystem is undergoing a seismic shift, with index investing gaining unprecedented traction among investors, according to a report by Motilal Oswal. The younger generation, including Gen Z and Millennials, shows a stronger inclination towards index funds as compared to older investors. They also prefer index funds over ETFs for better returns and liquidity. A recent report by Axis AMC also highlighted the growing appetite for ETFs, which witnessed net sales of Rs 15,403 crore in October 2024. While 46% of younger investors favor index funds, only 35% of Gen X and Boomers do so. Millennials and Gen X investors also have a keen interest in factor or smart beta funds, reflecting their appetite for innovative, albeit aggressive investment strategies. Passive funds have become a core component of investor portfolios, with 80% of investors increasing their allocation to these funds in 2024, compared to 53% last year. The Axis report echoed similar sentiments, noting that net sales in the passive category inched up to Rs 8,025 crore in October 2024. The combined assets under management (AUM) of passive funds have surged from Rs 7 lakh crore in September 2023 to over Rs 11 lakh crore by September 2024—a 1.5x growth in just one year. The survey also noted a growing popularity of ETFs, with 57% of respondents investing in them, up from 41% in 2023. Of these, 26% invest solely in ETFs, while 31% have diversified between ETFs and index funds. This rising preference is matched by a commitment to long-term investment. A significant 81% of investors plan to hold their passive investments for over three years, highlighting sustained confidence in the growth potential of these funds. Sectoral indices like Nifty IT and Nifty Bank dominate as the top choice for passive fund investors, selected by 67% of respondents. Benchmark indices such as the Nifty 50 and Nifty 500 follow closely, preferred by 61% of investors. A recent, similar report by stock broker Angel One also throws a spotlight on how young India plans and prefers mutual funds when it comes to savings and investments. The report, titled "Young Indians' Saving Habits Outlook 2024," compiled by Fin One, stated that 45% of respondents aged 22-35 have made it a point to save up some of their savings in mutual funds. A year ago, this figure stood at just 32%. Most of these investors make their way into mutual funds via SIPs, or systematic investment plans. 52% of respondents in the age cohort of 22-35 are now using SIPs to invest in mutual funds, up from 44% in the previous year. As for what was the driving factor behind beginning their investment journey, 42% underlined the past performance of funds, while 38% noted that advice from financial advisors remained a key consideration. 38% of young Indians are now increasingly focusing on building an emergency corpus, compared to 28% the year before. This shift underscores the drastic change in financial sensibilities brought forth by the pandemic and the consequent desire for greater financial resilience. In fact, approximately 4 out of every 5 surveyed investors maintained a dedicated, separate savings account. Out of the 1,650 individuals studied under the FinOne survey, a staggering majority made their first foray into the stock market in their early twenties. Nearly 2 in every 5 investors pick stock as their preferred choice of investment, followed by mutual funds and then savings bank accounts. While 45% of those surveyed picked stocks as their chosen investment avenue, 20% preferred mutual funds, and 15% wanted to keep their money in a savings bank account.

Gen Z and Millennials prefer stocks and mutual funds; index funds trump over ETFs, say recent reports

In the last two years, there has been a rapid rise in scams in India and a lot of people have lost their hard-earned money after trusting strangers for financial advice. Be it a fraudulent app, being added to a shady WhatsApp group, or receiving phone calls from strangers that sound too good to be true, many cases have come to light. Now, in a new incident, a doctor from Thane, Maharashtra, was misled by three Karnataka-based suspects who promised earnings via a municipal contract to supply medical equipment, costing him ₹3.84 crore. Despite investing over a three-year period, he saw no returns and reported the crime to the Naupada police, who have registered a case but made no arrests. Thane doctor tricked by false municipal contract According to a PTI report, a 39-year-old doctor in Thane, Maharashtra was deceived by three men from Karnataka. These fraudsters offered him lucrative returns through a supposed municipal contract for supplying medical equipment. Convinced by the promise of reliable profits, the doctor began investing heavily in December 2020, making significant contributions until March this year. The doctor’s substantial investment – totalling ₹3.84 crore – was made over multiple transactions from December 2020 and March this year, in anticipation of high returns that never materialised. Suspicion finally arose after the doctor had seen no profits despite his repeated investments. Recognising he may have been defrauded, he reached out to the Naupada police station, who registered a case under charges of cheating. While no arrests have been made so far, authorities have launched an investigation to track down the perpetrators and recover the funds if possible. A police official told PTI, "The man approached police after he did not get profits or any return on investment. We have registered a case of cheating but have not arrested anyone." Ahmedabad gynaecologist duped in <keyword id="21361161" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="stock-market-scam" source="keywords">stock market scam</keyword> In a similar incident, a gynaecologist from Ahmedabad lost ₹1.1 crore to a scam that began with a social media advertisement. Attracted by the potential for substantial stock market returns, the doctor engaged with a group promising expert tips and was subsequently added to a WhatsApp group where members shared investment insights. Through this group, he was introduced to a web link for stock and IPO investments, along with an application that required his banking details and identification documents. A PTI report revealed that the doctor’s initial investment of ₹50,000 yielded a profit of ₹10,000, which he successfully withdrew. This initial success encouraged him to make larger investments, transferring ₹1.1 crore through multiple transactions in pursuit of higher gains. When he later attempted to withdraw his funds, he was unexpectedly asked to pay 20% of his total profits. After refusing this demand, he was removed from the WhatsApp group and realised the extent of the deception. He contacted Cybercrime police in February, and after months of waiting, a formal case was registered against unknown suspects under charges of breach of trust and cheating, alongside provisions of the <keyword id="20003647" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="information-technology-act" source="keywords">Information Technology Act</keyword>.

Thane doctor gets cheated of ₹3.84 crore, was promised high financial returns by 3 men

Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been rapidly exiting Indian markets, and this high-speed exodus does not look like it will stop anytime soon. In October 2024, FIIs withdrew Rs 1,14,445.89 crores from Indian markets. Yesterday, FIIs withdrew $770.67 million from the markets, with equity outflows of $440.86 million and debt outflows standing at $327.44 million across various categories. Per NSDL data, hybrid outflows amounted to $2.31 million. While this may sound dissuading at first, a recent SBI report underlined that FIIs still hold a massive $ 18.241 billion in Indian markets. So far, FY25 has seen FII inflows worth $ 8.924 billion. However, the situation may quickly turn alarming as well, given that FII holdings in Indian equities have already come down to a 12-year low. Says Anirudh Garg, Partner and Fund Manager at Invasset PMS, "The current valuation of Indian stocks, trading at around 24 times expected earnings, appears high compared to Chinese stocks, which are at approximately 10 times. Economic concerns, including weak corporate earnings and declining consumer demand, further exacerbate this situation. Additionally, renewed fears of inflation and potential monetary tightening by central banks have led FIIs to withdraw from the Indian market." In the meantime, DIIs (domestic institutional investors) are stepping in big time. During October 2024, DIIs infused Rs 1,07,254.68 crore in Indian markets. In November so far, DIIs have been keeping the fund momentum going, infusing Rs 12,265.74 crore in India, while FIIs have offloaded Rs 16,445.49 crore this month. But despite this strong uptick, SBI's recent report suggests that consumer confidence in India remains below 100, signaling muted positivity and optimism in the economy. While household consumption is gradually recovering, it grew at 4% last year, much below the 7% levels recorded pre-pandemic. <h2>FII share in <keyword id="20868945" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="NSE-listed-companies" source="keywords">NSE-listed companies</keyword> takes a dip, DII stake rise </h2>FIIs share in NSE-listed companies stood at 15.98% in October, with assets under their custody in the equity segment coming to Rs 71.08 lakh crore last month. In September, this stood at Rs 77.96 crore. Experts suggest that this is likely to continue for some time to come. Mutual funds, on the other hand, saw their share in NSE-listed companies hit a record high of 9.58%, as opposed to their 9.32% stake in September 2024. FIIs turned net sellers in the debt segment as well in October, dumping $771 million in Indian markets. This comes after 2 consecutive months of healthy inflows in this segment in August and September 2024, where the figures stood at $2,806 million and $2,295 million, respectively.

FII stake in Indian equities dips to a 12-year low

New Delhi: <keyword id="19900795" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="foreign-investors" source="keywords">Foreign investors</keyword> pulled out a massive Rs 94,000 crore (around USD 11.2 billion) from the Indian <keyword id="19925636" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="stock-market" source="keywords">stock market</keyword> in October, making it the worst-ever month in terms of outflows, triggered by the elevated valuation of domestic equities and attractive valuations of <keyword id="20295104" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chinese-stocks" source="keywords">Chinese stocks</keyword>. Before this, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew Rs 61,973 crore from equities in March 2020. The latest outflow came after a nine-month high investment of Rs 57,724 crore in September 2024. Since June, FPIs have consistently bought equities after withdrawing Rs 34,252 crore in April-May. Overall, FPIs have been net buyers in 2024, except for January, April and May, data with the depositories showed. Looking ahead, the trajectory of global events like geopolitical developments, interest rate movements, progress in the Chinese economy and the outcome of the US Presidential election will play a crucial role in shaping future foreign investment in <keyword id="20014814" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Indian-equities" source="keywords">Indian equities</keyword>, Himanshu Srivastava, Associate Director, Manager Research, Morningstar Investment Research India, said. On the domestic front, key indicators like inflation trajectory, corporate earnings, and the impact of festive season demand will also be closely watched by FPIs as they assess opportunities in the Indian market, he added. According to the data, FPIs recorded a net outflow of Rs 94,017 crore in October. The intensity of net outflows could be gauged from the fact that except for one day, FPIs were net sellers throughout the month, bringing their total investment for 2024 down to Rs 6,593 crore. This relentless selling resulted in about an 8 per cent decline in benchmark indices from their peaks. Several factors contributed towards this massive withdrawal of foreign capital from the Indian equity markets in October. The major among them is the elevated valuations of Indian equities. This has triggered a shift in investments towards China, where valuations are currently more attractive. Additionally, a series of stimulus measures, aimed at bolstering Chinese economic growth has made Chinese equities increasingly appealing to global investors, Srivastava said. Despite the massive FPI selling in financials, this sector is resilient since the valuations are fair and every selling is being absorbed by DIIs and individual investors, particularly HNIs, VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist, Geojit Financial Services, said. In addition, FPIs pulled out Rs 4,406 crore from the debt general limit and invested Rs 100 crore from the debt Voluntary Retention Route (VRR) during the period under review. So far this year, FPIs invested Rs 1.06 lakh crore in the debt market.

FPIs withdraw record Rs 94,000 cr from Indian equities in Oct on attractive Chinese valuations

Tensions in Middle-East are rapidly inching closer to their zenith, with Iran firing about 200 ballistic missiles at Israel late yesterday night. In response today, the Indian markets witnessed their worst decline in two months, with Sensex dipping around 1,769 points, or 2.1% to close at 82,497.10. <keyword id="19896381" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Nifty" source="keywords">Nifty</keyword> followed suit and was also down by 2.1% to close the day at 25,250.10. As a result, about Rs 11 lakh crore were wiped off the market today. The decline was broad-based, with sectors like realty (dipped by over 4%) auto, and energy suffering the most. Broader indices also fell, losing nearly 2% each. The Hang Seng index, which had rallied over 14% during the last week, largely on the back of various stimulus measures announced by the central bank to stir consumption in the Chinese economy, also slumped around 1.47%. With the possibility of an all-out war between Iran and Israel looming on the horizon, threatening to happen sooner than later, markets are expected to remain volatile in near future. Even the India VIX, seen as a gauge of uncertainty and investor fear in the market, jumped over 9% during the day. The war could throw a huge spanner on India's crude oil import plans. As of August 2024, about 44.6% of India's crude oil imports came from <keyword id="19904316" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="middle-east" source="keywords">Middle East</keyword>. Israel has already promised significant retaliation, in response to Iran's attack in the days to come. And the strong possibility of a full-blown Israeli attack in Middle East, particularly major oil fields in Iran has sent the crude oil prices surging. Closer home, ONGC (Oil and Natural Gas Corporation) was amongst the biggest gainers on NSE today. <h2>Should Indian investors worry? </h2>But is the impending action in Middle-East the only reason behind today's drastic fall? Vishnu Kant Upadhyay, AVP, Research &amp; Advisory at Master Capital Services notes that while it plays a significant role, other factors are also at play. "Recent regulatory changes in the F&amp;O segment by SEBI is expected to impact trading volumes, as retail participation may decline due to the increased contract size and limits on weekly expiries. Meanwhile, strength in the Chinese market, following the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) stimulus package, has also diverted foreign investment to China, where valuations remain more attractive compared to India", he noted. But Upadhyay believes that the extension of losses in Indian markets wont last long. "From a technical perspective, as long as prices hold above the 25,250–25,100 zone, any decline could present an opportunity to build fresh long positions. A stock-specific approach is advisable, with sectors such as Oil, IT, PSU Banks, Metals, and Chemicals likely to outperform in the coming days", he adds. Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities observes that as long as market is trading below 25,365/82,800, the weak sentiment is likely to continue. On the down side, it could slip till 25,150-25,025/82,200-82,000 as well. On the other side, one quick technical pullback is likely if the market succeeds to trade above 25,365/82,800. Above the same, it could bounce back till 25,475-25,500/83,100-83,300. The current market texture is volatile hence; level based trading would be the ideal strategy for the day traders. <h2><keyword id="20760178" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="mutual-fund-investors" source="keywords">Mutual fund investors</keyword>, stay put</h2>In the aftermath of a <keyword id="19968045" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="market-correction" source="keywords">market correction</keyword>, most mutual fund investors often face a critical decision- should they stop their SIPs (<keyword id="21047553" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Systematic-Investment-Plans" source="keywords">Systematic Investment Plans</keyword>) or to view the downturn as a valuable opportunity to acquire more mutual fund units? By continuing SIPs during such downturns, investors can take advantage of 'rupee-cost averaging,' i.e. accumulating more units when prices are down. This approach not only lowers the average cost per unit, but also positions the portfolio for greater returns when the market eventually recovers, and softens the impact of short-term volatility. Swapnil Aggarwal, Director, VSRK Capital explains that alongside maintaining regular investments, revisiting your asset allocation is also essential in these turbulent times. A well-diversified portfolio, that balances equities with safer assets like bonds can withstand market fluctuations more effectively. You can consider shifting some investments into bond funds or other stable instruments, which can provide a cushion against further declines. <h2>What happens next? </h2>While the immediate impact of a market correction may lead to declines in the NAV (Net Asset Value) of mutual funds, disciplined investors can view this as a moment to reassess their strategies. Focusing on your <keyword id="20908416" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="long-term-financial-goals" source="keywords">long-term financial goals</keyword> will let you turn market volatility into opportunity! The market will remain keenly focused on the evolving situation in the Middle East. What will also be equally important are the US monthly jobs data due tomorrow, which could determine the size of Fed's next interest rate move in November.

Nifty, Sensex in freefall today as Iran mounts attack on Israel. Here's what experts think you should do

33 top stocks to buy in a market with few undervalued investments: Morningstar

<ul class="summary-list"><li>AI enthusiasm has rebounded in recent weeks after investors worried about returns over the summer.</li><li>In the next wave of investment, Goldman Sachs analysts recommend "platform" stocks like Microsoft and Datadog.</li></ul>Move over, Nvidia.With artificial intelligence investment rebounding after excitement cooled over the summer, a new set of stocks is set to benefit from the next wave of cash flowing to the burgeoning sector, according to Goldman Sachs.In the next round of AI investment, Goldman Sachs analysts say investors should look past the obvious picks—Nvidia and AI infrastructure companies—and toward a select set of platforms set to build out a direct application of AI."Our equity analysts believe 'platform' stocks, including databases and development tools, are set to be the primary beneficiaries of the next wave of generative AI investments. These platforms allow the best use of AI infrastructure while providing building blocks to construct next generation applications," the analysts said in a Thursday note.The analysts name Microsoft, DataDog, MongoDB, Elastic, and Snowflake as the best-positioned platform stocks as they roll out AI-integrated applications.While many of those platform stocks have plunged this year on near-term fundamental weakness, they have historically low valuations and stabilizing revisions that set them up well as AI investment rebounds, the analysts say.The analysts' recommendations come as investors <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-price-earnings-party-investors-cult-investing-memes-2024-9">remain focused on Nvidia</a> and the companies that build out AI infrastructure, such as semiconductors, cloud providers, and data center REITs. The analysts say the share prices for those stocks will likely continue to increase, but returns will be driven more by earnings than valuations."Expected future returns could be constrained by elevated starting valuations, although valuations are historically a poor near-term signal for large-cap equities," the analysts said, adding that with AI spend surprising less to the upside than before, that could make for more moderate returns for those "phase 2" AI infrastructure stocks.In general, the platform stocks are the exception among other "phase 3" stocks—those with potential to monetize AI by generating incremental revenues like in software and IT services— because the timing of AI monetization is still uncertain.The same goes for "phase 4" stocks, or companies that would benefit from widespread adoption in general since that's likely still years away, the analysts said."We believe the roll-out of applications among Phase 3 stocks is a necessary condition before investors will gain confidence about owning Phase 4 stocks with the largest potential earnings gains from AI-related productivity," they said.The analysts' comments come after flows into AI stocks dwindled over the summer as traders <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/big-tech-investors-wary-high-ai-spending-markets-selloff-nasdaq-2024-7">expressed worries over returns on big AI spending</a>. That led to sharp underperformance in July, and in early August, Nvidia tumbled as much as 27% from its all-time high in June.Now, the stock is <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/nvidia-stock-nears-all-time-high-after-openai-funding-2024-10">back up</a> to trading near its record high as the AI trade has reaccelerated in recent weeks amid interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and strong macro data.

These stocks are best-positioned to gain in the next wave of AI investment, Goldman Sachs says

<ul class="summary-list"><li>Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan Asset Management are becoming a bit less bullish.</li><li>Although the US economic outlook is strong, returns may have been pulled forward.</li></ul>A pair of Wall Street juggernauts are getting slightly more skeptical about stocks and bonds, but a compelling investment opportunity may be hiding in plain sight.<div type="image" title="GS 10-year projection" height="1088" width="1508" msid="114505224" hostid="261" sizebytes="75402"></div>Goldman Sachs stole headlines recently by forecasting that <a target="_blank" href="https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/stock-market-outlook-sp500-future-returns-decade-forecast-goldman-sachs-2024-10">US equities will only rise 3% a year in the next decade</a>, down from an average annual gain of 13% in the prior 10 years. The firm's rationale is based on a more challenging backdrop characterized by lofty valuations, an unusually high concentration in the market's biggest stocks, increased recession risk, lower profits, and elevated interest rates.<div type="image" title="GS 10-year projection baseline" height="742" width="1010" msid="114505227" hostid="261" sizebytes="35320"></div>Top minds at JPMorgan Asset Management (JPMAM) agree that stocks might not post the returns that investors have come to expect, though they're not nearly as pessimistic.The firm, which manages $3.5 trillion in assets, expects US large-cap equities to appreciate by 6.7% a year in the next 10 to 15 years, according to its yearly long-term capital market assumptions report released on October 21. For reference, JPMAM thinks global stocks will rise between 7.2% and 8.1% a year in that same span.A mid-single-digit annual gain for US large caps is nothing to sneeze at, though it would be down substantially from <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-economy-growth-outlook-recession-risk-inflation-jpmorgan-2022-11">7.9% two years ago</a> and <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/how-to-invest-stocks-bonds-real-estate-outlook-strategy-jpmorgan-2023-10">7% last year</a>.There's a simple explanation for that marginally more tepid outlook: US stocks have been on a tear. And while <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-outlook-prediction-2025-how-to-invest-rally-trader-2024-10">some bulls are emboldened</a> by the S&amp;P 500's excellent track record, JPMAM strategists worry that the market has pulled forward future gains."Near the bottom of all these pages, we put a little statement saying, "Past performance is not indicative of future returns.' That's actually not true," said David Kelly, JPMAM's chief global market strategist, at a press conference about the report. "Past great performance is indicative of a more difficult environment going forward."The S&amp;P 500 is on pace to rise by at least 10% <a target="_blank" href="https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500-historical-annual-returns">for the fifth time since 2018</a> and the 11th time since the financial crisis, including what's been a 22.7% gain in 2024. That strength, combined with already-rich valuations, led JPMAM to cut its long-term projection for US large caps.<div type="image" title="JPMAM valuations" height="926" width="1038" msid="114505230" hostid="261" sizebytes="32120"></div>However, Kelly said the downward shift was gradual since the economic growth outlook is promising. The firm is calling for US real GDP of 2% in the long term, which is the highest mark since the pandemic, along with 2.4% inflation, which is down for the third consecutive year."The very good news is that we think that the foundations for the US economy and the global economy look better than they did a year ago," Kelly said. "We got through some of our more significant worries on inflation; economic growth looks pretty solid."<div type="image" title="JPMAM US GDP forecast" height="828" width="1032" msid="114505215" hostid="261" sizebytes="15222"></div><h2 id="ee7765b8-415d-46ac-862a-90df145c611f">As the 60-40 portfolio loses steam, real estate can take the baton</h2>Lower stock returns are expected to drag down the traditional 60-40 stock-bond portfolio, which JPMAM now says should fetch 6.4% a year for the next decade or so.That forecast is down from 7% last year and 7.2% heading into 2023, though it's higher than the <a target="_blank" href="https://www.businessinsider.com/alternative-investing-strategy-60-40-portfolio-bitcoin-outlook-inflation-jpmorgan-2021-11">4.3% mark in late 2021</a>, where US large caps were only expected to climb 4.1% a year in the long term after an outstanding rebound from the early pandemic lows.Bonds, which make up the second half of that calculus, have a solid but unremarkable outlook.US bonds broadly are expected to return 4.6% in the long term — down from 5.1% last year and the same as two years ago — while the US 10-year Treasury note is projected to fetch 4.2%, versus 4.6% last year and 4% two years ago. Meanwhile, high-yield bonds should deliver a 6.1% gain in the long term, compared to 6.5% last year and 6.8% two years ago.After accounting for inflation, JPMAM expects the standard 60-40 portfolio to return less than 5% in the long term, and the same is true of large-cap stocks and bonds. While such gains may be satisfactory for some, it would take over 16 years for an investor to double their money.Those looking for a more compelling investment opportunity should consider real estate, according to JPMAM. Unlike stocks and bonds, the firm's projected returns for that asset class are steadily rising, from 5.7% two years ago to 7.5% in late 2023 to 8.1% this year.US core real estate is projected to yield close to 6%, up from just over 4% a few years ago and well above the 10-year's yield of 4.2%. Real estate isn't cheap based on <a target="_blank" href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/capitalizationrate.asp">capitalization rates</a>, which measure how much money a property generates relative to its market value, but JPMAM believes the asset class is an exceptional value relative to other yield-generating investments.<div type="image" title="Real estate vs 10-year yield" height="924" width="1032" msid="114505221" hostid="261" sizebytes="34048"></div>"If you were to look at this on a spread basis, the cap-rates spread would tell you that real estate looks a little bit expensive," said David Lebovitz, a global market strategist for JPMAM, at the conference. "But if you look at the all-in yield and think of that as your valuation and your starting point, we're looking at a generational opportunity."Monica Issar, JPMorgan Private Bank's global head of multi-asset and portfolio solutions, echoed that sentiment."This is absolutely the largest generational opportunity to invest in real estate in a long time," Issar said at the conference.Commercial real estate looks especially compelling, Issar said. Unlike residential real estate, which has held up well in recent years — as evidenced by <a target="_blank" href="https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSPUS">remarkably resilient home prices</a> despite <a target="_blank" href="https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms">still-elevated mortgage rates</a> — office buildings have struggled to regain their value since the pandemic ushered in a new era of remote work for millions of Americans.As companies reduced their physical presence or eschewed offices altogether, demand for commercial spaces has taken a massive hit. However, Issar thinks that risk is reflected in prices."All we've been reading about and all we've been seeing is price declines and discussions about empty buildings," Issar said. "This is a time for investors to step in, move into attractive pricing, move into asset classes like non-core real estate."Investors can bet on a commercial real estate rebound by working with <a target="_blank" href="https://am.jpmorgan.com/us/en/asset-management/institutional/investment-strategies/alternatives/real-estate/">JPMAM's team</a>, or on their own through publicly traded real estate investment trusts (REITs). JPMAM didn't outline any specific investments to make, but Issar threw out a few ideas to help investors brainstorm."Think of multifamily housing; think of student housing around campuses; think of cell towers and data centers," Issar said. "That is the modernization of the new direct real estate that is going to be really attractive for investors in the future."

'Generational opportunity': Invest in real estate as stock and bond returns shrink, according to $3.5 trillion JPMorgan Asset Management

In one of <keyword id="20712043" type="General" weightage="100" keywordseo="Linkin-Park" source="keywords" meta.keywordsubtype="org" meta.entityname="Linkin Park" meta.hostid="261" meta.entityid="Linkin Park">Linkin Park</keyword>'s most iconic songs, "In The End", <keyword id="23080921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Chester-Bennington" source="keywords">Chester Bennington</keyword> raspily croons about how time is a valuable thing, and you can only watch it fly by, as the pendulum swings. 7 years have flown by since the death of their lead singer Chester Bennington, and in the end, it matters because Linkin Park is finally making a comeback. Bringing in singer <keyword id="23059610" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Emily-Armstrong" source="keywords">Emily Armstrong</keyword> and drummer <keyword id="23059611" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Colin-Brittain" source="keywords">Colin Brittain</keyword> in the fold, the <keyword id="19912961" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="rock-band" source="keywords">rock band</keyword> was a huge rage in the 2000s and originally comprised of Mike Shinoda, Brad Delson, Phoenix and Joe Hahn. Linkin Park's latest album, titled "<keyword id="23059612" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="From-Zero" source="keywords">From Zero</keyword>", will release on November 15th this year. The new lineup also launched a brand new single yesterday, called "The Emptiness Machine". With Armstrong stepping into Bennington's mind-numbingly daunting shoes, all she'll want perhaps, is to be more like herself, and less like the popular former vocalist, who tragically took his own life in 2017. But before we get on that lane, here's a walk down the memory lane, reliving some of Linkin Park's most celebrated songs, and some snippets of financial well-being you can derive from them. I am a little bit insecure, a little unconfident 'Cause you don't understand, I do what I can, but sometimes I don't make sense -Faint, Meteora, 2003 Well, who isn't a little bit insecure and unconfident while starting something new? Plus, if you just figuring out the complexities of the <keyword id="6357440" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="Stock-market" source="Orion">stock market</keyword>, it can certainly seem daunting. But if you're someone who's been wanting to start investing in stocks or mutual funds for a long time now, know that it is most important to begin. Don't let your fears procrastinate your investments further, till the time 'the market is better off', or 'I know a bit more about the markets', or 'I'll start investing next year, when I am earning more'. The best time to start investing in stocks, mutual funds, or even in your skills, was yesterday. The next best time? Today. And dispel any notions that you have of not being able to create a meaningful corpus over a long term, with just Rs 500 a month. Right now, it wont make sense, but this amount, invested consistently over a 20-year period, could mean you end up with around Rs 5,00,000. So, start with what you can, but start right away. Somethin' in here's not right today Why am I so uptight today? Paranoia's all I got left I don't know what stressed me first Or how the pressure was fed -Papercut, Hybrid Theory, 2000 There's a sea of difference between long-term wealth creation and dabbling in the market to earn some quick bucks. If you're only tracking the market from 9:30 am to 3:30 pm everyday, in hopes of the markets doubling down on your investments within the next week or month, you'd always be stressed, pressured, paranoid, and uptight. And rightly so! You see, when you're in the game for quick money, the slight downtrend in the stock you own could send you in a panic mode, or not holding a stock that's making massive gains during the day could make you angry. But the market has the tendency to compound and average out the impact of market volatilities on your investments, provided you stay put. So, unless you're not an experienced trader, you should let go of all this stress, and pay heed to what <keyword id="19921921" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="warren-buffett" source="keywords">Warren Buffett</keyword> says-the best holding period to have is forever, or better, "If you aren’t willing to own a stock for 10 years, don’t even think about owning it for 10 minutes.” And it can't be outfought, It can't be outdone, It can't be outmatched, It can't be outrun. No! -Catalyst, <keyword id="23080922" type="General" weightage="20" keywordseo="a-thousand-suns" source="keywords">A Thousand Suns</keyword>, 2010 There is perhaps, no better way to describe the stock market than this. You think you can time the market, or outpace it to make the most of your investments, only to realize why even veteran investors like Ramdeo Agrawal call the market their guru. As tempting as it might sound, trying to outwit the market is a loser's game. More people have lost money trying to unsuccessfully time the market, rather than actually losing money during market corrections. While investing, time in the market trumps timing the market, any day. In cards and flowers on your window Your friends all plead for you to stay Sometimes beginnings aren't so simple Sometimes goodbye's the only way, oh, oh -Shadow of the Day, Minutes to Midnight, 2007 The next time your friends or relatives insist that you invest basis a 'solid stock tip' they have, its time to say goodbye. Random youtube videos, tips on telegram or recommendations by your acquaintances should never serve as the basis for any investments that you make. Do your own research, or consult a SEBI registered RA (research analyst) before you decide to invest in a particular stock. Consult a financial planner who will properly understand your long-term and short term goals, and then craft a customised portfolio that will help you financially achieve all your milestones in life.

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